Group 1 - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index fell by 2.86% as of January 30, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Fostar, while Nanshan Aluminum experienced the largest decline [1] - CICC pointed out that the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum continues to widen, and with global fiscal and monetary policies resonating, aluminum prices are expected to reach new highs, with profit per ton of aluminum likely to expand as prices rise [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that while copper prices are currently affected by macro sentiment and AI-related demand adjustments, the long-term outlook remains strong due to ongoing tight supply of copper mines and declining spot processing fees [1] Group 2 - The National Grid's fixed asset investment for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, which supports the copper price outlook [1] - Yingda Securities emphasized the importance of following the "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent policy directions, suggesting a focus on technology growth stocks with earnings support, as well as cyclical varieties, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index as of December 31, 2025, include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Gree Electric Appliances, and others, accounting for 51.95% of the index [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Geopolitical situations are complex and volatile, affecting multiple commodity markets. For example, the tension between the US and Iran impacts oil, fuel oil, and related energy - related products. The situation in Ukraine also adds to the uncertainty in the market [1][2][21]. - Many commodity markets are influenced by a combination of supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For instance, in the metals market, prices are affected by inventory levels, production capacity, and short - term speculative sentiment [3][4][7]. - Some markets are expected to be in a state of shock or have limited upward/downward space due to various factors such as policy, seasonality, and demand - supply imbalances [11][12][13]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Prices fluctuated sharply last night. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and the EU's sanctions on Iran have increased market concerns. The cease - fire in energy infrastructure may bring some stability, but the market remains volatile [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by rising geopolitical risks, they followed crude oil to rise significantly. The high - sulfur fuel oil shows strong performance due to tight spot supply, while the low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by cost and component factors. The market is expected to follow crude oil and maintain a strong shock, with the differentiation between high - and low - sulfur fundamentals continuing [21]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: - **Coke**: The first round of price increase is expected to be implemented on Friday. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still have upward space in the short term [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price continued to rise. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1618 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the inventory increased. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still rise in the short term [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, they fluctuated violently, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 10%. Market focus is on geopolitical changes. Short - term market information is complex, and the risk of market fluctuations is high [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The price fluctuated violently on Thursday, with the maximum intraday increase of LME copper exceeding 10%. It is guided by funds and emotions. Pay attention to the domestic spot and discount range [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, non - ferrous metals followed precious metals to fall. The spot premium and discount in some regions decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The market is dominated by short - term sentiment, and the volatility is high [4]. - **Zinc**: After the sharp fall of gold and silver at night, the long positions in the non - ferrous sector took profits, and the price of SHFE zinc closed with a long upper shadow. The short - term has an adjustment demand, and there is an opportunity for short - allocation after the high - level adjustment is sufficient [7]. - **Lead**: It is in a weak adjustment under over - supply. Benefiting from the strong bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, it rebounds, but the actual demand is weak, and the rebound space is limited [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel oscillated at a high level. The spot price of stainless steel rose, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing, and the actual transaction was weak. The inventory of steel mills is still at a low level, and traders are willing to support the price [9]. - **Tin**: Compared with surrounding varieties, the price performance is restrained. Pay attention to the domestic spot quotation and track the social inventory. It is recommended to participate in the short - call option of the 2603 contract [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price rebounded. The spot price of manganese ore decreased, and the port inventory may start to accumulate slowly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price rebounded. The power cost in some areas decreased, but the price of semi - coke increased slightly. The demand has some resilience, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [19]. - **Rare Earth Metals**: Not mentioned in the report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The rise in oil prices strengthens the cost support. The inventory of propylene enterprises is low, but the downstream is more cautious. The supply and demand of polyethylene and polypropylene have different characteristics, and the new order follow - up is insufficient [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed a strong trend at night. The inventory in warehouses in East and South China increased, and the export signing slowed down. The cost support of calcium carbide became stronger. Caustic soda oscillated strongly. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine was strong. The industry is under high - pressure inventory, and the follow - up production reduction needs to be tracked [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Driven by the strong rise in oil prices, they rose again. In the first half of the year, PX can be over - allocated, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there are opportunities for long - position operations based on PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory increased, and the price encountered resistance at the 4000 mark. In the second quarter, there are expectations of centralized maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term is still under pressure [30]. - **Urea**: Before the Spring Festival, the industrial downstream demand is expected to decline, and the large - scale spring ploughing fertilizer demand has not started. The supply pressure remains, and the market continues to oscillate strongly within the range [23]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical risks, it rose significantly at night. The overseas device operation rate is low, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly. Although there are some negative factors, the short - term market is expected to run strongly [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price followed the oil price and ran strongly. The inventory in Jiangsu ports increased slightly. The demand increased due to the improvement of downstream profits and the increase in device operation rates [25]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene support the cost. The domestic supply has declined, and the downstream demand has decreased steadily. There is short - term price pressure [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Driven by the drought in Argentina and the weakening of the US dollar, US soybeans continue to oscillate strongly at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, which may impact the domestic market [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by the spread of re - inflation trading in commodities, they are boosted. The short - term price volatility risk should be noted. The supply - demand of palm oil has improved marginally, and the policies of Indonesia and the US are beneficial to the price [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The zero - pressing of rapeseed in domestic coastal oil mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. Although affected by geopolitics and policies, the import is expected to be looser after March, and the short - term upward space is limited [37]. - **Corn**: The spot price in Northeast China and North Ports is stable, and the price of some Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly. The short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is weak, reflecting the expected weakening of the spot market. Although the inventory of laying hens will decline in the first half of 2026, the short - term price may fall after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the trading rhythm [41]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The domestic cotton supply and sales are booming, but the downstream order demand is average. Pay attention to the pressure around 15,000 yuan and the change in imports [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic market focuses on the expected difference in production. Although the current production in Guangxi is slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 crushing season, and the short - term price faces pressure [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price oscillates. The Spring Festival stocking is at a peak, but the quality of apples is poor and the purchase price is high, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The market focuses on demand [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand has increased year - on - year, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has continued to accumulate [46]. Livestock - **Hogs**: The futures and spot prices are falling. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the price may hit a second bottom in the first half of next year [40]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The three major A - share indexes rose and fell differently yesterday. The futures indexes also showed different trends. The A - share market is expected to change from a unilateral rapid rise to an oscillating upward trend. Pay attention to geopolitical situations and economic policies [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 29, 2026, treasury bond futures rose slightly. The market sentiment of going long continues, but the trading is divided. The short - term is expected to continue the box - type shock. Pay attention to the opportunities of steepening and flattening the yield curve [48].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong overall sentiment, driven by supply reductions and cost support, despite weak demand conditions [3] Supply - As of January 2026, the estimated crude steel production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [2] - The production forecast for February is 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [2] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and initiating maintenance ahead of the holiday season [2] Inventory - Social inventory has slightly accumulated, with a trend of decreasing warehouse receipts [2] - As of January 30, the social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 457,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,700 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,950 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The nickel ore market is tight due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines, with nickel ore premiums rising to $28-32 per wet ton [3] - The high-nickel pig iron market is experiencing weak inquiries, leading to a narrowing of price increases [3] - The chromium iron market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply growth [3] Demand - Demand is weak, with traditional and emerging sectors showing reduced purchasing activity due to financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - The expected impact on production from the 300 series stainless steel is 485,000 tons due to maintenance and production cuts [3] Price Outlook - The main price reference is set between 14,200 and 15,200, with expectations of strong fluctuations in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The company announced an expected increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 835-998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90%-302.67% [1] - The growth in performance is attributed to increased production and sales volume, along with a decrease in raw material costs, aligning with expectations [1] - The company is implementing refined management practices and cost reduction strategies, including the construction of two 65MW ultra-high temperature subcritical power generation projects to enhance energy efficiency [1] Group 2 - The steel industry is experiencing weak downstream demand and fluctuating steel prices, but upstream raw material prices have significantly decreased, leading to a recovery in steel profits [2] - The company is focusing on internal incentives and effective cost control, with a strong likelihood of asset injections from the group, enhancing growth prospects [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 0.40, 0.46, and 0.52 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Two New" policy, which includes a total funding of 1,561 billion yuan for equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, aims to stimulate economic growth and support various sectors, including steel, energy, and healthcare [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The issuance of 936 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds is a key macroeconomic tool for China, aimed at injecting strong momentum into the economy [2]. - The funding will support approximately 4,500 projects across nine major sectors, including industrial, energy, education, and environmental protection, with an expected total investment exceeding 4,600 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Steel Industry Transformation - The "Two New" policy is shifting the demand structure in the steel industry from traditional construction steel to high-end plates and special steels required by manufacturing [3]. - The steel industry faces challenges such as peak steel consumption and declining demand, particularly from the real estate sector, which is unlikely to recover in the short term [3]. Group 3: Upgrade Pathways - The steel industry aims for an average annual value-added growth target of around 4% for 2025-2026, focusing on enhancing the supply capacity of high-end products like bearing steel and gear steel [4]. - These high-end steels are crucial for applications in automotive, machinery, shipbuilding, and home appliances, aligning with the focus of the "Two New" policy [4]. Group 4: Industry Chain Opportunities - The digital transformation in the steel industry is driving demand for equipment updates, with policies supporting technological upgrades and resource utilization [5]. - The government emphasizes the need for steel companies to adopt low-emission technologies and digital transformation to meet environmental standards [5]. Group 5: Long-term Effects - The "Two New" policy not only stimulates short-term investment but also promotes deep economic structural adjustments, expanding support to areas like old residential elevator installations and fire rescue facilities [6]. - The policy aims to lower investment thresholds for equipment updates, enhancing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [6]. Group 6: Financial Collaboration - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies strengthens the "Two New" policy, with innovative financial services emerging to support equipment updates [7]. - Financing options such as leasing and the securitization of related debts are encouraged to improve the efficiency of financial resource utilization, particularly for traditional industries like steel [8].

公司点评 | 方大特钢 产销量增长+原燃料成本下降，业绩高增符合预期 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 方大特钢（600507.SH）2025 业绩预增点评 事件：公司公告业绩预增，预计 2025 年归母净利润为 8.35-9.98 亿元，同 比增长 236.90%-302.67%；扣非后归母净利润为 7.05-8.68 亿元，同比增长 299.87%-392.32%。 产销量增长+原料成本下降，业绩高增符合预期。我们按照业绩预告中值可 以测算出 2025Q4 单季度归母净利润为 1.28 亿元，同比增长 116.10%；扣 非后归母净利润为 1.32 亿元，同比增长 471.74%，根据业绩预增公告内容： 1）业绩增长方面，2025 年钢铁行业下游需求仍偏弱运行，钢材价格呈震荡 下行态势，但同期上游主要原燃料价格也显著回落，钢材利润得到一定修复。 在生产端，公司持续推进精细化管理，大力降本增效；建设两套 65MW 超高 温亚临界发电项目，提升能源利用效率。在销售端，公司抢抓市场机遇，通 过优化品种结构，提高高效益产品产销量，有力推动了业绩增长。 2）非经营性损益方面，2025 年公司非经常性损 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of hot-rolled coil plates fluctuates repeatedly due to the bullish sentiment in the raw material end [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures | Variety | Yesterday's Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Yesterday's Trading Volume (Lots) | Yesterday's Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2605 | 3,157 | 35 | 1.12 | 1,026,450 | 1,785,380 | 40,974 | | HC2605 | 3,308 | 26 | 0.79 | 434,547 | 1,547,118 | 29,468 | [1] Spot Prices | Variety | Region | Yesterday's Price (Yuan/ton) | Day-before-yesterday Price (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Shanghai | 3260 | 3240 | 20 | | | Hangzhou | 3300 | 3280 | 20 | | | Beijing | 3150 | 3140 | 10 | | | Guangzhou | 3420 | 3420 | 0 | | Hot-rolled Coil Plate | Shanghai | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | | | Hangzhou | 3310 | 3300 | 10 | | | Tianjin | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | | | Guangzhou | 3280 | 3280 | 0 | | Tangshan Steel Billet | - | 2930 | 2930 | 0 | [1] Basis and Spreads | Variety | Yesterday | Day-before-yesterday | Change (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (RB2605) | 103 | 117 | -14 | | Basis (HC2605) | -28 | -10 | -18 | | RB2605 - RB2610 | -46 | -46 | 0 | | HC2605 - HC2610 | -22 | -21 | -1 | | HC2605 - RB2605 | 151 | 157 | -6 | | HC2610 - RB2610 | 127 | 132 | -5 | | Spot Coil-Rebar Spread | -78 | -67 | -11 | [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 29th, according to the weekly data from Steel Union, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 3.8 million tons, and the total production of the five major varieties increased by 3.58 million tons; rebar inventory increased by 23.43 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 21.43 million tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 9.12 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.45 million tons, and the total apparent demand decreased by 7.78 million tons [1][3] - In December, the output of medium and heavy plate mills of key statistical enterprises increased year-on-year, while the output of hot continuous rolling mills and cold continuous rolling mills decreased year-on-year. Among the main plate varieties, the output of shipbuilding plates, household appliance plates and engineering machinery steel plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates and wind power steel plates decreased significantly year-on-year. In terms of product prices, except for the medium and heavy wide steel strips, the prices of other products decreased. From January to December, the cumulative output of medium and heavy plate mills and cold continuous rolling mills increased year-on-year, while the cumulative output of hot continuous rolling mills remained flat year-on-year. Among the main plate varieties, the cumulative output of shipbuilding plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates decreased significantly year-on-year [3] - In mid-January 2026, key statistical steel enterprises produced 19.79 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.979 billion tons, a daily output decrease of 0.9% month-on-month; 17.94 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.794 billion tons, a daily output increase of 1.8% month-on-month; 18.77 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.877 billion tons, a daily output increase of 3.0% month-on-month. The steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises was 16.13 billion tons, an increase of 1.09 billion tons or 7.3% compared with the previous ten-day period; an increase of 1.99 billion tons or 14.1% compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 0.12 billion tons or 0.8% compared with the same ten-day period of the previous month; an increase of 3.2 billion tons or 24.7% compared with the same ten-day period of the previous year; an increase of 0.78 billion tons or 5.1% compared with the same ten-day period of the year before last [3] - In mid-January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.09 billion tons, a decrease of 0.02 billion tons or 0.3% month-on-month, with a slight decrease in inventory; a decrease of 0.12 billion tons or 1.7% compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 0.35 billion tons or 5.2% compared with the same period of the previous year [3] - BHP Billiton announced that its iron ore output in the first half of the year reached a record high. In the annual contract negotiation with China, the company has accepted a partial price cut for iron ore [3] - On January 19th, a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steelmaking operation department of Baotou Baogang Plate Mill exploded, damaging some workshops and equipment, which will affect the production of the plate mill production line and the surrounding affected production lines [3] - According to the customs statistics express data, in December 2025, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 21,000 tons or 4.2%; the average price was 1,810.3 US dollars per ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars per ton or 11.0%. From January to December, the cumulative import of steel was 6.059 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 756,000 tons or 11.1% [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - According to the customs statistics express data, in October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 45,000 tons or 8.2%; the average price was 1,593.0 US dollars per ton, a month-on-month decrease of 31.1 US dollars per ton or 1.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 680,000 tons or 11.9% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0; the trend intensity of hot-rolled coil plates is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On January 29, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures rebounded significantly, recovering the losses of the previous three trading days. Considering the news factors leading to the recent rebound in steel prices and the supply-demand balance in the fundamentals, it is expected that the market will likely fluctuate with an upward trend in the future. Investors can wait for dips to arrange medium- and long-term hedging or investment positions [6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On January 29, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 rebounded significantly, recovering the losses of the previous three trading days. The prices of some rebar and hot-rolled coil in the spot market increased [5][6][8]. - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2605 contracts both showed golden crosses, and the daily MACD green bars both narrowed [8]. - **News Factors**: The regulatory policy tightening sent a cooling signal to the irrational rise of some metal prices, but failed to stop the continuous increase of some metal prices. The black metal commodity prices generally followed the upward trend of the metal sector. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, causing coal and coke prices to stop falling and rebound [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of the five major steel products has been slightly increasing for five consecutive weeks, while the demand has been declining for two consecutive weeks with a narrowing decline. The total inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks due to the seasonal decline in demand. The spot price of iron ore has rebounded after a significant decline, and the first round of price increase for coke is about to be implemented [10]. - **Raw Materials**: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased by 13.3% compared with the previous four weeks, but the arrival volume increased by 3.2%. The port iron ore inventory reached a record high of 1.67 billion tons. The independent coking enterprises slightly reduced production after increasing production following steel enterprises. The supply of imported coal has rebounded again, but the supply and demand are still relatively balanced considering the cold weather in most parts of the north [11]. 3.2 Industry News - **National Policies**: The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen the comprehensive coordination of coal, electricity, oil, and gas during the Spring Festival travel rush. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to promote the photovoltaic industry to return to a healthy and rational development path [12]. - **Enterprise Performance**: Many steel and coal enterprises released performance forecasts. Some enterprises such as Youfa Group, Sansteel Minguang, Fangda Special Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel achieved profit growth or turnaround, while some enterprises such as Lanhua Kechuang, Hengyuan Coal and Electricity, and Liaoning Energy suffered losses [13][14]. - **Industry Developments**: Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group's annual coal production capacity exceeded 50 million tons, and its coal industry's per capita production efficiency increased. Yunnan Energy Investment disclosed its new energy power generation data, and India set a coal production target for the 2026 - 2027 fiscal year [14][15]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, weekly production of the five major steel products, inventory of steel mills and social inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, national daily average pig iron production, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai spot and May contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil [16][18][26][35][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic and financial situation is complex and volatile, with various factors affecting different markets. In the commodity market, precious metals experience significant price fluctuations, and there are supply - demand imbalances in some metals. In the financial market, the bond market is in a state of shock, and the stock market shows a mixed performance. International trade relations also have an impact on the market, such as the potential tariff adjustments between countries [5][21][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, China's GDP growth rate slowed down, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed different trends, and the social financing scale decreased compared with the previous month. The growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 also changed, and consumer and producer prices showed different trends. Fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year, while consumption and trade maintained growth but with varying degrees of slowdown [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warns of market risks due to complex international situations. Some funds and banks adjust relevant parameters, and there are changes in commodity base - spreads. In addition, the Fed's interest - rate decisions and international trade tariff policies also affect the market [2][3][4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Precious metals experience a "roller - coaster" price movement. Gold jewelry prices reach a record high, and there are different outlooks for the gold market in the short - and long - term. The copper market is expected to have supply shortages in 2026 and 2027, and there are changes in the inventories of various metals [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - China's stainless - steel production increased in 2025, while imports decreased. India explores coal reserves in Canada, and Brazil raises steel import tariffs. The Trump administration retreats from the plan to guarantee the minimum price of key mineral projects [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Venezuela reforms its petroleum law to allow private and foreign investment. The US imposes potential tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba [9][10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Chinese government conducts spring seed market inspections. There are changes in US soybean sales, EU crop production forecasts, and Brazil's coffee - baking industry revenue [11][12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducts 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds into the market [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and the UK reach a series of cooperation agreements, including in the financial field and tariff reduction. China promotes service - consumption growth, and there are positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. There are also news in areas such as transportation, culture and tourism, and finance [15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The Chinese bond market is in a state of shock, with different performances of short - and long - term bonds. There are price changes in exchange - traded bonds, and the convertible - bond market shows a decline. Interest rates in the money market and bond - issuing yields also have different trends [21][22][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar change, and the US dollar index declines, while most non - US currencies rise [26]. 3.3.5 Research Reports - Different securities firms have different views on the Fed's interest - rate decisions, short - term debt pricing, and the bond market [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - There are a large number of bond listings, issuances, payments, and principal - and - interest repayments on January 30, 2026 [29]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market shows a narrow - range consolidation, with the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the decline of other indices. The liquor, gold, oil and gas, and real - estate sectors perform strongly, while some high - tech sectors decline. The Hong Kong stock market also shows a mixed performance, with the rise of the Hang Seng Index and the decline of the Hang Seng Tech Index [30].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比略降，产量在利润支撑下回升，库存继续累积。铁水产量变化不大，钢厂 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 利润总体一般，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，宏观情绪 阶段性偏强，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高。在产量较低，需求稳健的状 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 态下，冬储累库压力或不大。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对 行情形成压制，短期宏观氛围偏暖，中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 上周钢厂库存水平明显上升，补库还将持续，铁水环比小幅回落，但后续仍有回升预期。 | | ★ | 多单持有 | 铁矿基本面仍然偏强，价格坚挺。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，市场对第二轮提涨存在分歧。近期焦企亏损程度略有减轻，受生产 | | ★★ | 看多 | 惯性短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下 游维持按需采购。预计短期维持偏强运行。 | | 焦煤 | 看多 | 国内 ...