Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4][5] - The report notes significant fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly in coking coal, and suggests monitoring the risks associated with futures price volatility [4] Liquidity Analysis - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a potential impact on market liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.07% [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high for the year, increasing by 5.50% to 3450 CNY/ton [9][41] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.81%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points [41] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was reported at 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel prices increasing by 6.42% [2] Subsector Performance - The prices of main coking coal and iron ore reached four-month highs, with coking coal prices at 1227 CNY/ton, up 6.6% [9][2] - The report indicates that the profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are currently low, with flat glass margins at -58 CNY/ton [78][80] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [9][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.69%, with the best-performing sector being cement manufacturing, which rose by 13.13% [9] Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China were at 47.70% in June 2025, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [3][9] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was reported at 1261.35 points, down 3.24% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward with a large increase. In the future, the rubber market may be affected by factors such as the conflict on the Thai - Cambodian border, weather disturbances in the main production areas, and changes in supply and demand. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback [8][89]. - Key factors to watch include changes in domestic macro - sentiment, weather disturbances in the main rubber production areas, changes in terminal demand, progress of the zero - tariff policy, the latest progress of the EU anti - dumping investigation, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [9][89]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber futures, RU2509, ranged from 14,780 to 15,665 yuan/ton, showing a significant upward trend. As of July 25, 2025, it closed at 15,585 yuan/ton, up 775 points or 5.23% for the week [6][14]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; and the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [19]. - The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,320 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis expanded significantly last week. As of July 25, 2025, the basis was - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - As of July 25, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased compared to the previous week, with a larger increase in the domestic market [30]. 3.2 Important Market Information - There were international events such as the conflict on the Thai - Cambodian border on July 24, which led to concerns about rubber supply; statements from US political and financial figures regarding interest rates, trade agreements, and tariffs; and economic data from the US, the eurozone, and China, as well as the performance of the global and EU auto markets [32][33][35]. 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the production of main natural rubber - producing countries increased. The total production in May 2025 was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month [43]. - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 4,231,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [48][52]. - As of June 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [56]. 3.4 Demand - side Situation - As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 75.99%, down 0.12% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.02%, down 0.08% from the previous week [58]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%; monthly sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.83% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12% [61][64]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 97,864 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.14% and a month - on - month increase of 10.25% [70]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [73]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [78]. 3.5 Inventory - side Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,020 tons, a decrease of 4,620 tons from the previous week [87]. - As of July 20, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons or 0.47% from the previous period. The social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 0.23%, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,000 tons, a decrease of 0.85%. The combined inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons or 0.28% from the previous period [87]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber supply is entering an increasing period. Recent weather disturbances in domestic and foreign main production areas have supported raw material prices, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply. In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 27.2% year - on - year [88]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises slightly decreased, downstream sales were sluggish, and inventory increased slowly. In June, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - truck sales also increased significantly. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Consumption - boosting policies are continuously being introduced [88]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [88]. 3.7后市展望 - The rubber market may be affected by the Thai - Cambodian border conflict, weather in the production areas, and supply - demand changes. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback [8][89]. - Key factors to watch include domestic macro - sentiment, weather in production areas, terminal demand, zero - tariff policy, EU anti - dumping investigation, and Sino - US tariffs [9][89]. 3.8 Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish trading strategy and take profits on long positions when the price is high [10][90].

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.4% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly declined, with grapes, citrus, and bananas decreasing by 3.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.08 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with tomatoes, winter melons, and lotus roots decreasing by 6.1%, 4.3%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly decreased, with large hairtail, crucian carp, and grass carp dropping by 1.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while rice remained unchanged and flour and peanut oil increased by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.63 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, while beef increased by 0.2% and lamb remained stable [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with broiler chickens decreasing by 0.3% and eggs increasing by 2.0% [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline dropping by 1.3%, 1.1%, and 1.1% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals slightly declined, with copper, aluminum, and zinc decreasing by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices predominantly decreased, with urea dropping by 0.4% and compound fertilizers increasing by 0.1% [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 0.8% and polypropylene, methanol, and soda ash decreasing by 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Coal prices generally increased, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 934 yuan and 755 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while the price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal remained stable [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and high-speed wire rod priced at 3401 yuan, 3538 yuan, and 3584 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.3% and 0.9% respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is set, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side ambushes for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption seasons in September when oil prices plunge [2]. - For methanol, short-term prices are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. As sentiment cools, prices may face downward pressure. Fundamentally, supply pressure will increase marginally, and demand may weaken, so methanol may face correction pressure. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options at high prices [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has declined, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. Demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. Overall, supply and demand are weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. - For PVC, the current supply is strong, demand is weak, and valuations are high. The fundamental situation is poor, but it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector. However, there is a risk of a significant decline when sentiment fades [12]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [14]. - For polyethylene, the short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [17]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the off-season, macro expectations will dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in July [18]. - For PX, the current load remains high, downstream PTA maintenance seasons have ended, and inventory levels are low. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory [21]. - For PTA, supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to follow PX and go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply side has increased, and downstream operations have recovered, but the height is still low. Port inventory depletion is expected to slow down. Valuations are relatively high year-on-year, and the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak. There is short-term pressure on valuations to decline [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures fell $1.09, or 1.65%, to $65.07 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell $0.97, or 1.40%, to $68.39 per barrel; INE crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan, or 0.46%, to 529.4 yuan per barrel [1]. - **European ARA Data**: Gasoline inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 10.15 million barrels, a 0.91% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 13.07 million barrels, a 0.45% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 6.34 million barrels, a 2.54% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.34 million barrels to 5.08 million barrels, a 6.31% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.49 million barrels to 5.87 million barrels, a 7.68% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 40.50 million barrels, a 2.32% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 38 yuan/ton to 2541 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of -53 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream production has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure will increase marginally. The MTO profit has declined again, port operations remain stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market will gradually shift to a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 1792 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has continued to decline, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. The compound fertilizer production has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are relatively high. Exports are continuing, and port inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On the night of July 25, NR and RU had significant corrections [9]. - **Supply Situation**: Frictions between Thailand and Cambodia are being negotiated, which may reduce supply concerns [9]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 20, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.47% from the previous period; the total inventory of dark rubber was 79.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.23%; the total inventory of light rubber was 49.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.85%. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory was 50.56 (-0.19) million tons [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Rubber prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 135 yuan to 5373 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5160 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was -213 (-65) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -113 (+1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Cost Side**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2225 (-25) yuan/ton, the price of medium-grade semi-coke was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 820 (0) US dollars/ton. The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda was 830 (0) yuan/ton [12]. - **Production Situation**: The overall PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.3%, a decrease of 0.5%; the ethylene method was 70.3%, a decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream demand operating rate was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.8%. Factory inventories were 35.7 million tons (-1), and social inventories were 68.3 million tons (+2.6) [12]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [13]. - **Market Expectations**: The market is looking forward to the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month, with a warming macro sentiment and a rising black sector. The cost side still has support. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space [14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply of pure benzene has decreased slightly, but the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the production of styrene has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. During the off-season, the overall operating rate of the three S industries has fluctuated and increased [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The spot price of polyethylene increased, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. During the off-season, agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is oscillating downward [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [18]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. During the off-season, with weak supply and demand, macro expectations will dominate the market [18]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected that polypropylene prices will fluctuate strongly in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 106 yuan to 7062 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 18 US dollars to 874 US dollars. The basis was 133 yuan (+46), and the 9-1 spread was 112 yuan (+4) [20]. - **Load Situation**: China's PX load was 79.9%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous period; Asia's load was 72.9%, a decrease of 0.7%. Sheng Hong further reduced its load due to upstream device failures, Tianjin Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period [20]. - **Import and Inventory Situation**: From mid to early July, South Korea exported 23.8 million tons of PX to China, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 million tons. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a decrease of 16.5 million tons from the previous month [20][21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 280 US dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 74 US dollars (+10). The current PX load remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the load level is high, with low inventory levels. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The current valuation is at a neutral level [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 86 yuan to 4936 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 4895 yuan, the basis was -8 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 18 yuan (-8) [22]. - **Load Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [22]. - **Inventory Situation**: On July 18, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 218.9 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons from the previous period [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 19 yuan to 175 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 16 yuan to 303 yuan. Supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. The PXN is expected to be supported and rise following the improvement of the pattern brought by the commissioning of new PTA devices [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 60 yuan to 4545 yuan, the East China spot price rose 52 yuan to 4582 yuan, the basis was 50 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (+5) [23]. - **Supply Situation**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.4%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous period; among them, the syngas method was 74.4%, an increase of 4.2%; the ethylene method load was 64.7%, an increase of 0.9%. Some syngas-based devices restarted, some oil-based devices increased their loads, and some devices switched from EO to EG production. Overseas, the Sharq devices in Saudi Arabia's Jubail region all restarted, and the US Lotte was under maintenance [23]. - **Demand Situation**: The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [23]. - **Import and Inventory Situation**: The import arrival forecast was 15.7 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 24 was 1.1 million tons, with an increase in outbound volume. Port inventories were 53.3 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha-based production profit was -305 yuan, the domestic ethylene-based production profit was -462 yuan, and the coal-based production profit was 976 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit-mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 580 yuan [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of raw materials in the production areas is prone to rise and difficult to fall, with strong cost support. The downstream demand is average, and the acceptance of high prices is limited, resulting in light overall trading. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a potential impact on the supply of natural rubber. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of anti - involution, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the impact of regulatory control measures on leading varieties and the overall market sentiment, it is expected that rubber may follow the overall market atmosphere and may have a narrow - range correction [76]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [5]. - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles, with a 7.3% year - on - year decline in June to 1.01 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles rose to 15.6%, and hybrid electric vehicles accounted for 34.8%, while the total market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 37.8% [6]. - Thailand and Cambodia had a border conflict on July 24, with both sides accusing the other of opening fire first [7]. - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The annualized sales volume after seasonal adjustment rose to 93 million vehicles/year. Trade frictions affected major markets such as the US and Western Europe, while the Chinese market maintained strong sales [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 15,585 yuan/ton, up 5.23% this week; the closing price of NR2509 was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, up 5.30%; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, up 2.56% [10][11]. Basis and Monthly Spread - As of July 25, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 250.00% and a year - on - year increase of 88.33%. The 09 - 01 monthly spread was - 765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.16% and a year - on - year increase of 35.17% [14]. Other Spreads - Cross - variety/cross - market spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 25, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,265 yuan/ton, up 6.09% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year [22][23]. - Non - standard basis spreads: The spreads of Thai mixed rubber to RU, Malaysian mixed rubber to RU, 3L rubber to RU, and African No. 10 rubber to RU changed. For example, the Thai mixed rubber to RU spread was - 485 yuan/ton on July 25, 2025, with a large month - on - month change [24][26]. - Light - dark color spreads: The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [31]. Substitute Prices - Due to policy factors and the border conflict, the price of synthetic rubber rose, but RU rose more, widening the spread between synthetic rubber and RU. On July 25, 2025, the price of China's mainstream butadiene rubber was 12,200 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,450 yuan/ton [34]. Capital Movements - The long - short position ratio of RU was relatively low, and the funds settled were neutral year - on - year. The long - short position ratio of NR rose rapidly, and the funds settled increased rapidly. On July 25, 2025, the long - short position ratio of RU was 6.98, and that of NR was 16.72 [36][37]. Supply - Weather in Thai production areas: The temperature in southern Thailand rose, and rainfall continued to ease. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was high year - on - year, and rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month [40][41]. - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50 baht/kg, and the price of Thai glue was 55.3 baht/kg [44][45]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex plants and that for whole - milk rubber plants increased [53][54]. - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits recovered. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108 yuan/ton [56][57]. - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [60][61]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the overall tire capacity utilization increased slightly. The inventory of some sample tire enterprises increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23% [64]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of full - steel and semi - steel tires decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [67][68]. Inventory - Spot inventory: As of July 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2891 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [69]. - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,000 tons, and the futures - spot inventory was 210,800 tons [72].

Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, marking a new phase of openness and presenting significant development opportunities for local companies while raising the bar for brand value construction [1][3] Brand Value Status - Hainan has 9 listed companies in the national brand value TOP 3000 list, indicating a substantial room for improvement in brand building among local firms [1] - Hainan Rubber leads with a brand value of 9.56 billion, significantly surpassing the combined brand values of the second to fourth ranked companies, highlighting the need for more leading brand enterprises in the region [2] - The agricultural sector has the highest combined brand value exceeding 14 billion, while most other sectors have not surpassed 1 billion, indicating an imbalance in brand value distribution [2] Opportunities from Closure Policy - The total brand value of Hainan's listed companies is approximately 25.5 billion, ranking 30th among provincial administrative regions, which correlates closely with the region's GDP ranking [3] - The closure policy will implement a unique system of liberalization, expanding the range of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 to about 6,600, covering 74% of all goods [3] - Local companies are positioned to leverage policy advantages, but their success will depend on their ability to enhance competitiveness, address talent shortages, and innovate while facing increased competition [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 7 月 25 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素提振 能化再度上行 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡上行， 大幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心大幅上移至 15585 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价大幅收涨 2.94%至 15585 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度缩小至 765 元/吨。由于国内宏观氛围增强并盖过胶市供需结构偏弱格局，叠加泰 国和柬埔寨爆发军事冲突，或威胁产区橡胶供应。在积极因素支撑下， 预计后市国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is showing a strong performance, with prices increasing and various factors influencing supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Movement - As of July 25, the main contract for natural rubber is priced at 15,625.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.20% increase [1] - The Shanghai market's 2023 SCRWF mainstream transaction price ranges from 15,350 to 15,400 CNY/ton, up by 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] Supply Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 186,680 tons of natural rubber warehouse receipts as of July 24, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous week [1] - Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first half of 2025 totaled 1.386 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - Specific export figures include: standard rubber at 804,000 tons (down 12% year-on-year), sheet rubber at 196,000 tons (up 26%), and latex at 377,000 tons (up 12%) [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the upward momentum in the rubber market is slightly weakening, with a diminishing bullish sentiment and increased resistance from downstream buyers towards high-priced sources [1] - Hualian Futures notes that large-scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the demand of all-steel tires, with macroeconomic expectations supporting rubber prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic real estate sector struggles are negatively impacting rubber demand, with a deepening year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to June [1] - However, demand from large engineering projects is improving heavy truck sales, which saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 29% in June [1] - The operating rate for all-steel tires is at a relatively low level, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires has recently rebounded significantly [1] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce long positions while maintaining holdings, with the support level for RU09 raised to around 14,500 CNY [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Pharmaceuticals**: The focus is on innovative drugs and price optimization in the procurement process. Over 100 drug varieties are applying for inclusion in the innovative drug directory as of July 24, 2025 [1]. The 11th batch of centralized procurement has started, emphasizing the principle that new drugs will not be included in centralized procurement [1]. - **Vaccines**: Companies like Zhifei Biological and Nanjing Xinbai are expanding their vaccine pipelines, with a total of 15 products expected to be launched by the end of 2024 [2]. - **Liquid Cooling Technology**: The adoption of liquid cooling in high-end AI chips is increasing, with predictions that over 50% of new data center projects will use liquid cooling technology by 2025 [6]. The global data center cooling market is expected to grow from $18.78 billion in 2025 to $42.48 billion by 2032 [6]. - **Coal and Steel Industries**: The coal industry is experiencing price increases due to high demand driven by power consumption [12]. The steel industry is facing intense price competition, with a focus on improving product quality and phasing out outdated capacity [13]. Core Company Insights - **KQ-2003 CAR-T Therapy**: Key partnership between Kayi Pharmaceutical and ERIGEN LLC for the exclusive overseas licensing of KQ-2003, with potential milestone payments reaching $1.33 billion [2]. - **Nanjing Xinbai**: Introduced the first FDA-approved CAR-T therapy for solid tumors, currently in Phase III clinical trials [2]. - **Hainan Rubber**: The company is the largest natural rubber producer in China, with a significant market share and plans for joint ventures in the duty-free sector [27]. - **Jinlong Co.**: Engaging in the acquisition of Shenzhen Benmao Technology to enhance its capabilities in intelligent computing centers [23]. Additional Important Information - **Regulatory Changes**: The National Development and Reform Commission is seeking public opinion on a draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to regulate unfair pricing behaviors and combat "involution" in competition [11]. - **Market Dynamics**: The coal and steel industries are under pressure to stabilize prices and improve quality, with government interventions to curb excessive competition [12][13]. - **Technological Advancements**: The development of static pressure equipment is crucial for solid-state battery production, with significant market potential exceeding 10 billion yuan [19]. Conclusion The conference call records highlight significant developments across various industries, particularly in pharmaceuticals, vaccines, liquid cooling technology, and traditional sectors like coal and steel. Companies are adapting to regulatory changes and market demands while exploring innovative partnerships and technological advancements to maintain competitive advantages.

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - In the context of not-high valuation, rubber prices have shown a continuous rebound pattern driven by a warm market atmosphere, mainly following the macro logic. The price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to rise, and the supply rebound pressure is expected to be limited. The downstream demand remains stable, and it is expected that rubber prices will continue the rebound trend, with the focus on the actual improvement of demand later. The supply of BR is showing a rebound trend, and its own supply-demand pattern is weak. The price of synthetic rubber is lower than that of natural rubber, and the downstream replacement demand is still supported. The focus is on the price change of upstream butadiene raw materials later [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,245 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 13,120 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan/ton. Spot: The Shanghai market price of Yunnan-produced whole latex was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton; the ex-factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.21% and a year-on-year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with 672,600 tons in the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year-on-year and 13.3% month-on-month. In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 24, 2025, the RU basis was -45 yuan/ton (+10), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 345 yuan/ton (-60), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -5,115 yuan/ton (+547.16), the NR basis was 86.00 yuan/ton (-65.00); the whole latex was 15,200 yuan/ton (+250), the mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+300), the 3L spot was 15,050 yuan/ton (+200). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (+40), the spread between the whole latex and the 3L was 150 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between the mixed rubber and the styrene-butadiene rubber was 2,600 yuan/ton (+100). - Raw materials: The Thai smoked sheet was 65.59 Thai baht/kg (-0.78), the Thai latex was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the Thai cup lump was 50.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.05), the difference between the Thai latex and the cup lump was 5.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.05). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all-steel tires was 62.23% (+0.25%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 70.06% (+1.93%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,289,100 tons (-6,053.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (-1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (-2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (-303) [3] BR - Spot and spreads: On July 24, 2025, the BR basis was -485 yuan/ton (-310), the ex-factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,700 yuan/ton (+100), the BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was quoted at 12,200 yuan/ton (+200), the BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was quoted at 11,900 yuan/ton (+150), the private BR in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (+50), the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was -862 yuan/ton (+66). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high-cis BR was 67.63% (+3.31%). - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 7,470 tons (+870), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 24,850 tons (-800) [3] Strategy - RU is neutral, and NR is neutral. Recently, rubber mainly follows the macro logic. Against the background of not-high valuation, the price shows a continuous rebound pattern driven by the warm market atmosphere. BR is neutral. Recently, the BR units of Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin have restarted, and Yanshan Petrochemical is also expected to have restarted this week. The supply shows a month-on-month rebound trend [4][5]