2026：更高的期待？20251230 摘要 市场预期美联储降息次数减少，从三次至五次调整为两到三次，美元指 数年初至今已贬值 10%，若去美元逻辑持续，或将进一步下探，但需关 注欧元、日元等货币政策的影响。 特朗普二次当选及其政策，叠加美国国会中期选举，将对全球地缘政治、 经济和金融产生不确定性影响，投资者需密切关注中美经贸关系及关税 政策变化。 中国经济在不确定性中寻求确定性，出口业务和科技自立自强是发展重 心，财政与货币政策协同配合将持续，但需警惕经济节奏、通胀形态及 政策力度变化带来的风险。 2025 年人民币资产风险偏好提升，10 年期国债收益率上升近 20 个基 点，科创 50、北京 50、创业板指数均有显著收益，人民币升值约 4%，全球主要风险资产普遍实现两位数以上收益。 人民币近期快速升值主要受美元走弱、企业结汇意愿增强及市场情绪催 化影响，未来一年人民币升值大方向不变，但需关注美元走势及央行干 预。 Q&A 对于 2026 年市场的展望有哪些主要考虑因素？ 展望 2026 年，首先需要关注的是美联储的降息预期。尽管市场普遍预计美联 储将继续降息，但降息幅度可能会较今年有所收敛。去年年底和今年 ...

Economic Performance - The U.S. economy has shown resilience with a real GDP annualized growth rate consistently above 2% in the first three quarters of 2025, excluding tariff impacts[5] - However, there is a stark contrast between macroeconomic data and micro-level experiences, with declining employment market activity and falling consumer confidence[5] Structural Issues - The economic growth is characterized by a "K-shaped" divergence, where a narrow prosperity in certain sectors, like AI, contrasts with widespread slowdown in others[5] - AI-related investments contributed 0.8 percentage points to the real GDP growth, while personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.8 percentage points, indicating a dual-driven economic model[13] Industry Disparities - Traditional cyclical industries, particularly real estate, are experiencing downturns due to high interest rates and housing prices, with residential investment maintaining negative growth[17] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with mortgage burdens at historical highs, limiting demand and investment willingness[17] Consumer Behavior - Wealth concentration is evident, with the top 20% of income earners holding nearly 90% of stock and mutual fund assets, exacerbating the K-shaped economic divide[23] - Consumer spending is increasingly reliant on high-end sectors, while essential goods and services show weaker performance, reflecting structural imbalances in consumption[34] Political Implications - The upcoming 2026 elections are expected to focus on improving living standards, with the Trump administration likely to adopt a dual strategy of encouraging AI investment and enhancing social welfare[36] - The administration's policies may aim to address economic disparities to regain public support, especially as approval ratings decline[36] Risks - Potential risks include aggressive policies leading to economic downturns, unexpected tariff expansions causing global economic slowdowns, and geopolitical tensions increasing asset price volatility[47]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The mid-term economic performance shows divergence, with significant price increases in chemical and non-ferrous resources due to supply constraints, while the AI industry continues to drive strong demand in the electronics sector [1] - Service consumption is showing marginal improvement, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index remaining high and the Hainan tourism price index increasing by 2.5% week-on-week due to border closure impacts [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - In the real estate sector, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 30.5% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 38.2%, 27.0%, and 32.7% respectively [2] - The average daily retail of passenger cars decreased by 11% year-on-year, although the decline has narrowed [2] Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The electronics industry remains robust, driven by AI infrastructure investment, with DRAM prices increasing by 12.4% for DDR4 and 5.3% for DDR5 week-on-week [3] - Chemical raw material prices have significantly increased, with PX and PTA prices rising by 0.5% and 7.4% respectively, attributed to supply constraints [3] Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Domestic and international flight operations saw a slight increase of 0.3% and a decrease of 2.6% respectively, indicating a decline in long-distance travel demand [4] - Nationwide highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreased by 0.5% and 6.1% respectively, reflecting weakened logistics demand [4]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The industry presents a mixed picture with different trends in various sectors, and policies such as the "Two New" policy in 2026 and the automotive digital transformation plan will have an impact on relevant industries [1][2] Summary by Directory Middle - view Event Overview Production Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Digital Transformation of the Automotive Industry". By 2027, the intelligent manufacturing capability maturity level of benchmark vehicle manufacturers will be upgraded by one level, the digital level of component enterprises will be significantly improved, the penetration rate of R & D and design tools will exceed 95%, and the numerical control rate of key processes will exceed 70%. By 2030, the industry will achieve a high - level digital and intelligent development [1] Service Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade - in in 2026", supporting home appliance trade - in, new purchases of digital and smart products, and new purchases of smart home products with corresponding subsidy standards [2] Industry Overview Upstream - In the non - ferrous sector, copper prices continue to rise; in the energy sector, liquefied natural gas prices continue to fall; in the agricultural sector, the prices of pork, cotton, and palm oil rise slightly [3] Middle - stream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PTA and PX remain low; in the energy sector, the coal consumption of power plants increases [4] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities continue to pick up; in the service sector, the number of domestic flights increases [5] Key Industry Price Indicators Tracking - Agricultural products such as corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork show price increases, with the price of pork rising by 2.19% [40] - Non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel also see price increases, with copper rising by 4.39% [40] - Energy products like WTI crude oil have a slight price increase of 0.12%, while Brent crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fall, with liquefied natural gas dropping by 5.39% [40] - Chemical products such as PTA have a price increase of 2.49%, while polyethylene and urea prices fall [40] - In the real estate - related sector, the cement price index and building materials comprehensive index decline slightly [40]

Downstream Consumption - The tourism sector shows continued high activity, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index averaging 67%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [7] - The Hainan tourism price index increased by 2.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant improvement in tourism activity due to the lifting of restrictions [7] - Real estate sales remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 30.5% in transaction area across 30 major cities, despite recent policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the market [9] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to experience high demand driven by AI infrastructure investments, with DRAM prices for DDR4 and DDR5 increasing by 12.4% and 5.3% respectively [19] - PCB exports in November 2025 rose by 29.5% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate [19] - Manufacturing activity remains stable, with slight fluctuations in operating rates across various sectors, while chemical raw material prices have seen significant increases [25][34] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have continued to decline, with the Qinhuangdao port Q5500 coal price dropping by 4.4% week-on-week [39] - Industrial metal prices have accelerated upward, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 5.9% and 1.6% respectively [41] Logistics and Transportation - There is a weakening demand for freight logistics, with nationwide highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreasing by 0.5% and 6.1% respectively [51] - Long-distance travel demand has also shown a marginal decline, with international flight operations down by 2.6% week-on-week [46]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the continuous price differentiation in the upstream industry and provides an overview of mid - level events, industry status in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors. Upstream prices show a trend of divergence, with some rising and some falling, while the mid - stream and downstream industries have their own development characteristics such as low - level operation in some mid - stream industries and recovery in some downstream industries. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, including deepening fair competition governance, breaking administrative monopolies, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, promoting the development quality of business entities, and strengthening the regular supervision of the platform economy [1] - **Service Industry**: The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented from January 1, 2026, with 935 items of goods subject to import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates, and new national sub - items added. Also, regulations on the deduction of advertising and business promotion expenses for certain industries have been announced [2] Industry Overview - **Upstream**: In the chemical industry, PTA prices are rising; in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper prices are rising; in the energy industry, LNG prices are falling [3] - **Mid - stream**: Chemical product start - up rates are at a low level, power plant coal consumption is increasing, and asphalt start - up is in the off - season [4] - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities are continuously warming up, and the number of domestic flights is increasing [4] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On December 29, the spot prices of corn, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork increased year - on - year, while the spot price of eggs decreased [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year [37] - **Ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot price of线材 increased year - on - year, while the spot prices of rebar and iron ore decreased slightly [37] - **Non - metals**: On December 29, the spot price of natural rubber increased year - on - year, while the spot price of glass and the China Plastic City price index decreased [37] - **Energy**: On December 29, the spot prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased slightly year - on - year, while the spot price of liquefied natural gas and coal price decreased [37] - **Chemical Industry**: On December 29, the spot price of PTA increased year - on - year, while the spot price of polyethylene decreased [37] - **Real Estate**: On December 29, the cement price index and the building materials composite index decreased slightly year - on - year, and the concrete price index remained unchanged [37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a moderate improvement in consumption, with service consumption recovering ahead of the holiday, as evidenced by increased subway passenger flow in 18 cities and a positive shift in the Hainan tourism price index year-on-year [1] - In terms of investment, the issuance of special bonds has concluded, leading to an increase in physical workload, with asphalt operating rates rebounding and continuous improvement in building materials data [1] - The real estate sector shows a seasonal recovery in sales, with an increase in the proportion of second-hand housing, although overall prices and premiums remain low [1] Group 2 - In foreign trade, there is a divergence between rising domestic export freight rates and a decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [1] - Production continues to show differentiation, with emerging industries such as polyester, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic chains demonstrating strong resilience, while traditional cyclical industries like steel and some chemicals are experiencing a downturn [1] - Inventory levels are decreasing for coal and building materials, while PTA continues to deplete inventory and polyester shows a slight accumulation [1] Group 3 - Industrial product prices are generally rebounding, with oil and non-ferrous metals experiencing a rebound, and the South China index rising [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows structural differentiation, with food prices fluctuating [1] - In terms of liquidity, funding rates have shown slight fluctuations, and the renminbi continues to strengthen due to a weaker dollar and increased demand for foreign exchange settlements [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) on various industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, paper, aviation, and real estate. The focus is also on the financial sector, particularly banks and insurance companies, as well as the performance of the Hong Kong stock market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook and Trends** - The market is expected to undergo a short-term consolidation, waiting for support from the five-day moving average, with a bullish sentiment anticipated post-New Year [1][2] - The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump is seen as a potential catalyst for market movement [3][4] 2. **Beneficial Industries from RMB Appreciation** - Industries benefiting from RMB appreciation include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, paper, and aviation fuel on the cost side, while airlines and real estate are on the liability side [1][5] - The financial sector, particularly state-owned banks and insurance companies, is expected to see asset revaluation due to foreign capital inflow [6][7] 3. **Investment Recommendations** - Three main investment directions are recommended: - **RMB Asset Revaluation**: Focus on industries benefiting from RMB strength, including steel, petrochemicals, and aviation [5][7] - **Overseas Expansion**: Anticipation of strong overseas economic growth in 2026, with a focus on the "奔马 50" portfolio, which has shown a 10% absolute return recently [5][11] - **Tech IPO Supply Chain**: Companies related to tech IPOs, such as Suiren and Changxin Storage, are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure [5] 4. **Historical Performance During RMB Appreciation** - Historical data indicates that sectors like steel, petrochemicals, and consumer goods have shown positive performance during previous RMB appreciation periods [9] 5. **Evaluation of Industry Benefits** - The evaluation of industry benefits during RMB appreciation is based on three dimensions: sensitivity of net profit to exchange rate changes, changes in gross profit margins, and improvements in foreign exchange gains reported in financial statements [8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of Year-End Settlement Demand** - Year-end corporate settlement demand is expected to support the RMB exchange rate, with employment demand at a high level [10] 2. **Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior** - The market is expected to see reduced activity as many institutional investors take holidays, leading to a potential decrease in trading volume [2] 3. **Potential Risks** - Concerns about the withdrawal of large funds from the A500 ETF post-New Year, although there is optimism that insurance funds may continue to invest due to bullish market expectations [4]

Economic Overview - As of November 2025, China's fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all showing negative growth[27] - The cumulative trade surplus from January to November 2025 reached $1.08 trillion, indicating strong export resilience despite trade tensions[7] Consumer Trends - Retail sales in the service sector grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025, outpacing overall retail sales growth by 1.4 percentage points[12] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting approximately 360 million people, with an average spending of 6,944 yuan per person[12] Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 1.9% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, down from 9.2% in 2024[41] - The construction industry is expected to see a rebound in investment growth to over 5% in 2026, supported by policy-driven financial tools[36] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment and sales have both declined, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year decrease of 30% in investment and 17% in new home sales[50] - The average rental yield remains low compared to the weighted average mortgage rate of 3.1% as of November 2025[58] Policy Measures - A series of consumer promotion policies have been implemented since early 2025, aiming to enhance consumption across various sectors, including digital and service industries[16] - The government plans to establish three trillion-yuan-level and ten hundred-billion-yuan-level consumption fields by 2027, indicating a strategic focus on consumption growth[24]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved an "eight consecutive days" rise, supported by strong domestic capital, with trading volumes exceeding 1.9 trillion CNY on December 25 and 26[4] - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has recently strengthened, breaking the 7.0 mark, influenced by the US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, becoming a key variable for future market trends[4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recommended trading strategy during this RMB appreciation phase is a mid-term focus on "pan-technology" and a short-term defensive approach, emphasizing sectors like commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications[1] - Investors are advised to maintain a low position in defensive stocks such as paper and aviation, which directly benefit from RMB appreciation, especially during the annual report forecast period[1] Group 3: Beneficiary Sectors - Beneficiary sectors are categorized into three tiers: - Tier 1: Cost and debt improvement sectors that directly benefit from RMB appreciation, showing high elasticity[4] - Tier 2: Core assets driven by capital flow, benefiting from increased attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets[4] - Tier 3: Asset revaluation opportunities due to the intrinsic value enhancement of RMB-denominated assets[4] Group 4: Historical Context - Since 2017, the RMB has experienced three rapid appreciation phases, each with different underlying logic and market conditions, including core asset bull markets and significant recovery in exports[5] - The current phase differs from previous ones, characterized by domestic capital dominance and a focus on technology-driven growth rather than economic recovery[6]