公司研究 [公Ta司ble点_Re评po报rtT告ype] [伊Ta利bl股e_份Sto(c6k0A0n8dR8a7n)k] 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] Q2 业绩大幅改善，展现龙头强大韧性 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 31 日 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [T事ab件le：_S伊um利ma发ry布] 2025 年半年报。2025H1，公司实现营收 619.33 亿元， 同比+3.37%；归母净利润 72.00 亿元，同比-4.39%；扣非归母净利润 70.16 亿元，同比+31.78%。其中，25Q2 实现营收 289.15 亿元，同比 +5.77%；归母净利润 23.26 亿元，同比+44.65%；扣非归母净利润 23.87 亿元，同比+49.48%。 点评： 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 厦B座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 ...

经营务实调整，股息率成支撑 目标价：5.1 港元 中国飞鹤（06186.HK）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报。25H1 实现主营收入 91.51 亿元，同比-9.36%；归母净 利润 10 亿元，同比-46.66%。公司宣布派发中期股息每股 0.1209 港元，合计 人民币 10 亿元。 证 券 研 究 报 告 当前价：4.39 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 20,749 | 18,792 | 19,835 | 20,469 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.6% | -9.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3, ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit margin and a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend payouts [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.53 billion yuan (+3.0%) and a net profit of 400 million yuan (+33.8%), with a non-recurring net profit of 410 million yuan (+31.2%) [1]. - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue reached 2.90 billion yuan (+5.5%), with a net profit of 260 million yuan (+27.4%) and a non-recurring net profit of 270 million yuan (+26.8%) [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products for the first half of 2025 was 5.07 billion yuan, 50 million yuan, and 410 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of +4.6%, +32.3%, and -15.0% [2]. - The company’s low-temperature product category saw over 10% year-on-year growth, driven by high-end fresh milk and innovative products that cater to current consumer trends [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue by region for the first half of 2025 was as follows: Southwest 1.97 billion yuan (+5.1%), East China 1.61 billion yuan (+6.8%), North China 450 million yuan (-15.8%), Northwest 670 million yuan (-1.9%), and other regions 830 million yuan (+7.9%) [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 30.0% (+0.8 percentage points), and the net margin was 7.4% (+1.7 percentage points) [3]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the gross margin improved to 30.5% (+1.4 percentage points), with a net margin of 9.4% (+1.7 percentage points) [3]. Shareholder Returns - The interim dividend payout ratio for the first half of 2025 was set at 15%, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 11.18 billion yuan, 11.77 billion yuan, and 12.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 4.8%, 5.3%, and 5.0%, respectively [5]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 690 million yuan, 820 million yuan, and 950 million yuan, with growth rates of 27.6%, 20.1%, and 15.6% [5].

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期光明乳业（600597）发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收 入124.72亿元，同比下降1.9%，归母净利润2.17亿元，同比下降22.53%。按单季度数据看，第二季度营 业总收入61.04亿元，同比下降3.06%，第二季度归母净利润7619.81万元，同比下降29.49%。本报告期 光明乳业公司应收账款体量较大，当期应收账款占最新年报归母净利润比达248.41%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现一般。其中，毛利率18.85%，同比减4.94%，净利率1.85%，同比增 3.37%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计18.76亿元，三费占营收比15.04%，同比减8.07%，每股净 资产7.25元，同比增12.55%，每股经营性现金流0.3元，同比增82.28%，每股收益0.16元，同比减20.0% | 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 127.14亿 | 124.72亿 | -1.90% | | 归母净利润(元) | 2.8亿 | 2.17 Z | -22.53 ...

Core Insights - The competitive landscape of the dairy industry is increasingly polarized, with leading companies like Yili significantly outpacing their competitors in terms of revenue and profit growth [1] - Yili's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, and its net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 31.78% to 7.016 billion yuan, more than three times that of the second-largest competitor [1] Group 1: Balanced Strategic Layout - Yili's success is attributed to its resilient "balanced system," which contrasts with traditional dairy companies that rely on single product categories [2] - In the first half of 2025, Yili achieved a market share of 18.1% in the infant formula segment, becoming the market leader in China [2] Group 2: Forward-Looking Strategy - Yili set a goal in 2021 to become the leader in the infant formula market by 2025, supported by product enhancements and strategic acquisitions [3] - The company is diversifying into non-dairy products, launching innovative items like jasmine tea and low-sodium mineral water for infants, contributing to double-digit growth in its beverage segment [3] Group 3: Innovation-Driven Growth - Innovation is a core driver for Yili, enabling it to maintain a competitive edge as the industry shifts from scale competition to comprehensive competition based on technology and product quality [4] - Yili has introduced new products like yogurt with unique textures and flavors, which have quickly gained market traction [4] Group 4: Global Expansion and Supply Chain - Yili's growth strategy extends beyond the domestic market, focusing on building a global resource and innovation network [5] - The company has established partnerships with over 2,000 global partners across 39 countries, with 15 R&D centers and 81 production bases worldwide [5] - Yili's international strategy emphasizes local integration and talent development, enhancing its resilience against global supply chain fluctuations [6]

Group 1 - The company's revenue decreased by 4% in volume and low single digits in price, resulting in a total revenue of 41.57 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.4% to 2.05 billion RMB [1] - Despite revenue pressure, the company's profitability improved, with gross margin increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 41.7% due to falling raw milk prices, and operating profit margin rising by 1.5 percentage points to 8.5% [1] - The management indicated that terminal demand remains weak, expecting a continued decline in volume and price in the second half of the year, leading to a downward revision of the full-year guidance [1] Group 2 - The core liquid milk business saw a revenue decline of 11.2% to 32.19 billion RMB, reflecting weak terminal demand and intense price competition, while other categories like ice cream (+15.0%), cheese (+12.3%), and milk powder (+2.5%) showed positive growth [2] - The cheese business benefited from synergies with Miaokelan, expanding into snack and family meal scenarios, while infant formula experienced double-digit growth, indicating a positive trend [2] - Management aims for an annual improvement of 30-50 basis points in operating profit margin over the next three years, despite the current weak terminal demand [2] Group 3 - The company has lowered its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 by 8-14% due to the performance in the first half and the recent weak terminal demand, with uncertainty surrounding the recovery of liquid milk sales [2][3] - Based on more conservative operating profit margin predictions, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 11-19% for operating profit and 9-27% for net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - The target price has been revised down to 21.51 HKD based on a 15 times expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, while maintaining a buy rating [3]

华创证券分析认为，当前外部需求磨底给公司收入端带来一定压力，但公司库存相对良性，且精益费投 成效显著、系列减值扰动收敛，下半年盈利修复可期。当前股息率约3.4%提供确定性收益，给予25年 目标PE17倍，对应目标价21港元，维持"强推"评级。 8月27日，蒙牛发布2025年中期报告后，花旗、高盛等外资投资机构和华泰证券、华创证券等中资研究 机构发布报告表示，经过短期调整后蒙牛现阶段估值已具备吸引力，看好蒙牛未来业绩前景，纷纷给 出"买入"等积极评级。 花旗的研究报告显示，蒙牛2025年上半年利润同比增长13%，但营收同比下降7%，两者差异核心源于 原奶价格走弱——既压低营收端表现，也推动毛利率同比提升1.4个百分点至41.7%，叠加销售费用率下 降，共同增厚盈利。基于预期2025年17倍PE，与全球乳制品行业平均估值水平持平，给予蒙牛"买 入"评级，目标价23.29港元，预计总回报47.7%(含4.0%股息率)。 高盛研报分析，蒙牛核心营业利润同比增长13%，核心营业利润率升至8.5%，超过高盛7.6%的预期，主 要得益于原奶成本下降推动毛利率提升及销售费用同比下降的严格控制。对蒙牛维持"买入"评级，12个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, up 24.1% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutritional products in H1 2025 was 961 million, 1.381 billion, and 156 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% [1] - The newly added cheese business generated a revenue of 479 million yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The decline in revenue from milk powder and domestic goat milk powder was primarily due to the launch of an internal code system upgrade in Q2, which led to a temporary reduction in shipment volumes [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The market share of the goat milk powder brand increased to 30.4% by the end of H1 2025, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Overseas revenue from goat milk powder saw a significant increase of 65.7% to 483 million yuan, accounting for 25.9% of the overall goat milk powder business revenue [1] - Key regions such as the Middle East, North America, and the CIS experienced revenue growth of 54.2%, 138.7%, and 33.8% respectively [1] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the lower gross margin of the newly merged goat cheese business at 6.8% [2] - The sales expense ratio was 26.1%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced promotional expenses from optimizing channel strategies [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased to 4.6%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges such as declining birth rates and macroeconomic uncertainties, domestic goat milk powder revenue is expected to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed [3] - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with the company achieving leading sales on Amazon in the U.S. for goat milk infant formula [3] - The nutritional products segment is being developed as a second growth avenue, focusing on large clients and enhancing online and offline sales channels [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 299 million, 357 million, and 410 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [3] - The company is recognized as a leading brand in goat milk powder with successful overseas market expansion and growth potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - The liquid milk segment has become the only area of decline for Mengniu's performance in the first half of 2025, marking a significant shift for the company that has historically relied on this segment as a cornerstone of its revenue growth [1][10]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mengniu achieved revenue of 41.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, while the gross profit margin increased by 1.4 percentage points to 41.7% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.05 billion yuan, impacted by losses from its joint venture, Modern Dairy, which reported a net loss of 910 million yuan [7][9]. - The liquid milk business saw a revenue decline of 4 billion yuan, down 11.22% year-on-year, making it the only segment to experience a drop [10][11]. Business Segment Performance - Revenue from various segments in the first half of 2025 included: liquid milk (32.192 billion yuan, -11.22%), ice cream (3.879 billion yuan, +15.04%), milk powder (1.675 billion yuan, +2.47%), cheese (2.374 billion yuan, +12.28%), and other products (1.447 billion yuan, +12.39%) [11]. - Despite the decline in liquid milk, other segments performed well, with ice cream and cheese showing significant growth [12][15]. Strategic Changes - Mengniu is shifting its focus from large-scale acquisitions to optimizing its asset portfolio, as evidenced by the sale of its New Zealand milk powder factory [23][24]. - The company is emphasizing "refined operations and quality improvement" as part of its strategy to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [30]. B2B Market Expansion - Mengniu is actively targeting the B2B market, particularly in sectors like baking, tea, and coffee, which are expected to grow significantly [34][35]. - The company has formed strategic partnerships with leading brands such as Starbucks and Bawang Tea to boost sales in the B2B segment [39]. - The cheese market is identified as a key growth area, with the demand for B2B cheese products increasing significantly [40][41]. Industry Challenges - The Chinese dairy industry is facing significant challenges, including a lack of diversification, supply-demand imbalances, and low resilience in the supply chain [18][19]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with other dairy companies also vying for market share in the B2B segment [48][49].

Core Insights - The report by the New Zealand-China Relationship Promotion Committee highlights the long-term cooperative value of Chinese investments in New Zealand's dairy industry [1] - From 2014 to 2024, China's cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) in New Zealand increased by 106%, outpacing the overall growth rate of New Zealand's FDI stock [1] - The dairy sector is identified as a representative industry for Chinese investment, showcasing the value of the long-term partnership between the two countries [1] Investment Diversification - The report uses the pet food and game development industries as examples to illustrate the increasing diversification of Chinese investments in New Zealand [1] - It emphasizes that Chinese investments are responding quickly to consumer demand [1] - The report suggests that China should focus on investing in areas where it has industrial advantages, such as renewable energy, advanced transportation, clean technology, and food production [1] Business Presence - Currently, at least 60 New Zealand companies have established business operations in China [1] - The chairman of the New Zealand-China Relationship Promotion Committee, McKinnon, states that increasing bilateral investment will help establish a long-term cooperative relationship between the two countries [1] - New Zealand is actively seeking to attract investment to drive growth, and leveraging its stable bilateral relationship with China is seen as a reasonable strategy [1]