Group 1: Gold Market - The World Gold Council (WGC) predicts that gold prices may rise by 15% to 30% by 2026 due to declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 2: Copper Market - Mercuria plans to withdraw a significant amount of copper from LME's Asian warehouses, with a record increase in copper withdrawal applications of 50,575 tons, reaching a total of 56,875 tons, which constitutes 35% of LME's total inventory [3] - The supply tightness in the copper market is exacerbated by mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile, leading to historically low copper inventories in LME-certified warehouses [4] - Recent data indicates a slight retreat in copper prices after a record high, as the panic over supply tightness begins to ease [6] - The U.S. government has classified copper as a critical mineral under the Defense Production Act, aiming to secure domestic copper resources [3] Group 3: Pulp Market - Pulp futures prices have rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with a recent increase of 5.73%, driven by supply disruptions from overseas pulp mills [8] - Domtar announced the permanent closure of its Crofton plant, reducing annual pulp production by approximately 380,000 tons, while other mills are also considering temporary shutdowns [8] - The international market for wood chips remains tight, contributing to rising prices for hardwood pulp [9] - Despite recent price increases, the overall supply-demand situation in the pulp market remains limited, with concerns over downstream paper demand affecting price stability [10] - The market is closely monitoring the price changes of imported softwood and hardwood pulps, as well as the acceptance of price increases by downstream sectors [11]

人形机器人板块日K线图 本版制图 张大伟 有机构认为，春季躁动具备在12月中下旬启动的基础，当前应关注12月经济数据、美联储官员表态、12 月各类科技产业大会以及机构调仓行为。参照历史经验，成长和周期是高胜率的板块风格，前者关注航 空装备、AI链，后者关注化工品及能源金属。从中期视角来看，2026年盈利周期上行驱动中国资产重 估的逻辑不变 消息面上，12月3日特斯拉发布"擎天柱"人形机器人跑步的视频，称其刚刚在实验室刷新了"个人"纪 录。当天美股盘面上，机器人相关概念股集体大涨，Nauticus Robotics单日上涨115%，iRobot Corp上涨 73%，特斯拉股价上涨4.08%。 中国机器人厂商也迎来订单加速落地。11月27日，绿源集团与越疆科技达成战略合作，将共同推动5000 台机器狗应用于智慧门店升级计划，探索具身智能在智慧门店、智能工厂等场景的应用。 瑞银证券最新发布的"Humanoid RobotInsight"报告认为，2026年人形机器人量产的积极信号正在逐步显 现。特斯拉、越疆等人形机器人企业的产能规划逐步落地，中国厂商订单持续增长，欧洲投资者兴趣明 显升温。具身智能订单落地与应用场 ...

每经AI快讯，12月4日，伦敦金属交易所铜库存增加675吨，至162,825吨；铜注销仓单增加7,450吨，达 到64,325吨。 ...

今年以来，在美联储降息预期、美元贬值及中国增长前景改善等宏观利好"潮水"的推动下，工业金属价格普遍大涨，周三，铜价甚至一度冲上 11540美元/吨的历史新高。 据追风交易台，高盛在12月3日发布的报告中发出警告：这股由投机情绪驱动的潮水即将退去，除了铜以外，工业金属市场即将面临严重的供应过 剩。 尽管如此，高盛也提醒，铜价近期突破11,000美元主要基于对未来的"预期"，而非当前基本面。该行预测2025年全球铜市将过剩50万吨，到2026 年过剩量收窄至16万吨，市场仅从过剩走向平衡，短期内不会出现严重短缺。 铝：潮水退去后的最大输家，目标价看低至2,350美元 铝市场正面临供需双杀的局面，高盛建议做空铝。 1. 供应海啸即将到来：当前的高价格正在刺激过多的新增供应，尤其是来自印度尼西亚和印度的新增产能。高盛预计，2026年全球铝 市场将从今年的平衡转为110万吨的过剩。中国在海外的一系列投资项目将在2026年集中释放产能。 2. 需求端面临替代风险：随着铜铝价格比率扩大，虽然部分领域出现了"以铝代铜"，但在汽车制造领域，由于成本考量，制造商正从 铝转向更便宜的钢铁。例如，美国钢铁生产商Cleveland-C ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices were in high - level oscillations on Tuesday. Fundamentals include statements from the US Treasury Secretary, ADP employment data, and various inventory changes. The strategy is to take partial profits on gold in the short - term and wait for buying opportunities at lower support levels [1]. - **Silver**: Overseas market tightness re - emerged, and short - term long positions are recommended [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices hit a new high. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts in London copper increased significantly, indicating a seller's market. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract rose slightly. With increased production capacity and improved demand, it is expected to oscillate upward [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract declined. With increased supply and stable demand, it is expected to oscillate weakly [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply may decrease in December, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move within the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to decrease in December. The short - term upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price center has moved up due to a short - squeeze, and in the long - term, it depends on the progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Prices rose significantly. Supply is tight, and there are concerns about short - squeeze risks. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are at a large discount. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a slight discount. It is recommended to exit and wait, and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Supply is mixed, and demand is in a game. The US soybeans are in oscillation, and the domestic market depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices varied regionally. Supply and demand are temporarily tight, but new production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [5][6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market declined slightly. Supply is high in some areas and affected by floods in others, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term but oscillate overall [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated weakly, and domestic cotton prices rebounded. International supply and demand are affected by planting area changes, and domestic demand is mixed. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices decreased slightly. Supply pressure is decreasing, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures and spot prices declined. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing, but prices are expected to weaken seasonally [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply pressure is rising but slowing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [7]. - **PVC**: The price continued to oscillate at the bottom. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. It is recommended to short [8]. - **Glass**: The price rebounded from the bottom. Supply is affected by cold - repair, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose and then fell. Supply is affected by sanctions and production plans, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract oscillated slightly. Supply and demand are improving marginally, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy styrene profit at low prices [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is affected by coal prices. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

12月3日(周三)，高盛将2026年上半年伦敦金属交易所(LME) 铜均价预测上调至每吨10,710美元，此前预 测为10,415美元/吨。 该行同时指出，预计LME铝价将在2026年第四季度跌至2,350美元/吨。 ...

Market Dynamics - LME metal futures closed higher, with LME copper rising by $342 to a record high of $11,488 per ton, and LME tin increasing by $1,740 to $40,780 per ton, marking the largest increase in copper delivery applications since 2013 with a surge of 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons [1] - The U.S. stock market saw a significant rise in robotics stocks, with Nauticus Robotics soaring over 135% and iRobot nearly 80%, following reports of the White House's plans to accelerate the development of the robotics industry [1] - The ADP report indicated a surprising decline in U.S. private sector employment by 32,000 jobs in November, contrasting with the previously revised increase of 47,000 jobs in October, raising concerns about the labor market [2] Industry Developments - Credo, a leader in the active copper cable (AEC) sector, reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $268 million, a 272% year-over-year increase, highlighting growth driven by AI in the copper cable and AEC industry [7] - The upcoming 2025 Cultivated Diamond Industry Conference in Zhengzhou is expected to benefit from the rising demand for diamonds in semiconductor cooling applications, with the global cultivated diamond market projected to grow to 36.8 billion yuan by 2025 [8] - OpenAI is addressing increased error rates in its ChatGPT service for enterprise clients and has finalized the acquisition of Neptune, a startup focused on AI model training monitoring tools [11] Company Announcements - Arrow Yuan Technology has established a large-scale liquid rocket production and testing base in Hangzhou with a total investment of 5.2 billion yuan, aiming for an annual production capacity of 25 units of the Yuan Voyager-1 rocket [5] - Ideal Automotive launched its first AI smart glasses, Livis, priced from 1,999 yuan, with a government subsidy reducing the price to 1,699 yuan for orders placed before December 31 [6] - Macro Construction announced that its bipedal humanoid robot, Matrix Super Intelligence, will officially launch its next-generation product next year [13]

Market Performance - US stock indices showed a mixed performance with the S&P 500 index only 71 points away from its October high despite weak labor market data [1] - Major technology stocks had varied results, with Tesla rising over 4% and Microsoft falling over 2% [2] Sector Movements - Lithium stocks led the market rally, with companies like Albemarle and Livent showing significant gains, while major tech stocks struggled [3] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropping 1.38% [3] Commodity Trends - Base metals experienced a broad increase, with LME tin rising nearly 4.4% and LME copper up 2.7%, reaching historical highs [4][6] - A report from JPMorgan suggests that supply disruptions and global inventory mismatches could push copper prices to $12,500 per ton by mid-2026 [5] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective rise, with Bitcoin surpassing $93,000, marking a 1.8% increase [6][7] - Significant liquidation occurred in the market, with over $360 million in total liquidations reported in the last 24 hours [8] Economic Indicators - The US private sector unexpectedly lost approximately 32,000 jobs in November, raising expectations for further interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve [8] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December surged to 89% according to CME FedWatch [8]

格隆汇12月3日｜由于美元走软、供应担忧以及伦敦金属交易所(LME)注册仓库中金属供应趋紧，铜价 周三创下历史新高。此外，数据显示欧元区 11 月份的商业活动扩张速度达到两年半以来的最快水平， 也进一步提振市场对铜的看涨情绪。大宗商品市场分析公司董事总经理Dan Smith表示，铜价突破新高 后走势强劲，算法模型也发出买入信号。铜价很有可能从目前水平攀升至每吨12000美元。LME铜注册 仓单降至7月以来的最低水平，Dan Smith表示，鉴于纽约商品交易所铜价高于伦敦金属交易所铜价，人 们对向美国出口铜仍然抱有浓厚的兴趣。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the negative consumer sentiment and its impact on retail sales growth, as well as the performance of various sectors including commercial aerospace and energy [3][16]. Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales - As of September 2025, consumer capability and willingness to spend have contributed 4.98% and -0.48% respectively to retail sales growth, indicating that subsidy policies have not effectively improved consumer sentiment [3]. - The contribution of subsidized goods to retail sales has increased significantly, with subsidized goods accounting for 57.0% of retail sales in the first ten months of 2025, compared to 48.9% in 2024 [3]. Market Performance - On December 3, 2025, the A-share market saw a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51%, Shenzhen Component down 0.78%, and ChiNext down 1.12% [16]. - The total trading volume across the three markets reached 168.37 billion yuan, an increase of 76.3 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3,800 stocks declining [16]. Sector Analysis - The coal sector showed strength, with companies like Dayou Energy and Antai Group hitting the daily limit due to increased seasonal demand amid cold weather [16]. - The commercial aerospace sector experienced mixed performance following the ZQ-3 rocket's successful launch but failed first-stage recovery, leading to volatility in related stocks [10][16]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests focusing on the commercial aerospace sector, particularly companies involved in rocket propulsion, satellite internet applications, and satellite manufacturing, as the industry is expected to accelerate due to favorable policies and technological advancements [11].