Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2][4] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI decline was 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [4][5] - Improvements in supply-demand relationships in some industries were noted, with price declines narrowing in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [3][4] Group 3 - Economic stability and demand expansion are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year [5][6] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are anticipated to positively influence consumer prices [5][6] - The impact of international commodity price fluctuations on the domestic market is expected to diminish, contributing to a more stable price environment [6]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year CPI remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a continuous expansion in growth for three consecutive months [2][6] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices up 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up 0.5% month-on-month [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][5] - The domestic market's competitive order is improving, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries [5][6] - The overall judgment for the second half of the year suggests a mild recovery in prices, supported by stable economic conditions and effective demand expansion policies [6][10]

Group 1 - The core CPI in July 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, marking the third consecutive month of growth [3] - The overall CPI in July shifted from a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.4%, while the year-on-year figure remained stable [3] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month in July, contributing over 60% to the total CPI increase, driven by high demand during the summer travel season [3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first month of reduced decline since March [3] - The domestic market's competitive order has improved, leading to a reduction in price declines for industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium batteries [3]

Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% in June, while year-on-year it remained flat [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [1] - Service prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, contributing over 60% to the total CPI increase, driven by high demand during the summer travel season, particularly in airfares, tourism, and hotel accommodations [1] Group 2 - The domestic market's competitive order continues to improve, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries [2] - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but this decline was 0.2 percentage points smaller than the previous month, marking the first month-on-month decline reduction since March [2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing the previous month's decline and exceeding seasonal levels by 0.1 percentage points, indicating positive changes in consumer prices [3] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing over 60% to the total CPI increase, driven by the peak travel season with significant price hikes in airfare (17.9%), tourism (9.1%), and hotel accommodation (6.9%) [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, reflecting a stable demand environment [9] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Developments - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March [10][11] - The improvement in PPI was attributed to enhanced market competition and supply-demand relationships in various industries, particularly in coal, steel, and photovoltaic sectors, which saw reduced price declines [13] - Positive price changes in industrial products were noted, driven by macroeconomic policies and increased demand for upgraded consumer goods, with notable price recoveries in aircraft manufacturing and wearable technology [15]

Core Viewpoint - The overall price index of Linyi Mall decreased slightly this week, indicating mixed trends across various product categories, with some experiencing price increases while others faced declines [1]. Price Index Summary 1. Home Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment - The price index for home appliances and audio-visual equipment rose to 103.15 points, an increase of 0.08 points, driven by higher prices in refrigeration and purification appliances, while air conditioning sales are declining [1]. 2. Lighting - The lighting category's price index increased to 104.36 points, up by 0.06 points, primarily due to rising prices of lighting accessories and outdoor lighting, despite a slight drop in procurement demand [2]. 3. Daily Necessities - The daily necessities price index reached 102.76 points, with a minor increase of 0.01 points, as demand for bags and textiles rose during the summer vacation, although some beauty and personal care products saw price reductions due to e-commerce competition [3]. 4. Steel - The steel price index fell to 97.94 points, down by 0.92 points, with all subcategories experiencing declines due to weak demand and falling upstream raw material prices [4]. 5. Clothing and Accessories - The clothing and accessories price index decreased to 104.30 points, a drop of 0.20 points, with footwear prices continuing to decline amid increased promotional activities and weak demand [5]. 6. Boards - The board price index declined to 96.53 points, down by 0.08 points, influenced by weak demand due to high temperatures and falling prices of raw materials like rubber and timber [6].

Price Trends in Various Markets - The national production material market prices remained stable from July 28 to August 3 compared to the previous week [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced slight declines, with zinc, copper, and aluminum decreasing by 1.4%, 0.9%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Rubber prices saw minor decreases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber falling by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively [2] Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices were predominantly down, with urea decreasing by 0.4% while compound fertilizers saw a slight increase of 0.1% [3] - Steel prices showed slight fluctuations, with hot-rolled strip steel and rebar priced at 3615 yuan and 3475 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.8% and 0.4% respectively; channel steel increased by 0.8% to 3701 yuan per ton [3] Energy and Chemical Prices - Wholesale prices for refined oil saw slight increases, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline rising by 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [4] - Coal prices experienced minor increases, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 959 yuan and 759 yuan per ton, rising by 1.8% and 0.3% respectively; the price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal remained stable at 1129 yuan per ton [4] - Basic chemical raw material prices continued to rise, with soda ash and sulfur increasing by 1.2% and 1.0% respectively; polypropylene prices remained stable while methanol decreased by 0.6% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].