（三）技术面与资金动态：关键支撑位面临考验 上证指数近期一直在 3347 点附近反复试探，3300 点关口作为重要的牛熊分界线，一旦失守，很可能触 发程序化止损盘。节前融资余额出现下降（单周净流出 483 亿），北向资金的分歧也在不断加大，明日 盈信量化（首源投资）：明日，A 股市场将踏入关键的博弈阶段。结合当下最新的政策信号、复杂的海 外变量以及微妙的技术面特征来看，行情的波动极有可能进一步加剧。以下是对关键趋势的深度推演以 及对应的操作策略。 一、明日市场关键影响因素分析 （一）政策环境：宽松托底但节奏存疑 在 2025 年的工作会议上，央行两次着重强调 "择机降准降息"，并且已经创设了互换便利（550 亿已成 功落地）以及大股东回购再贷款工具（首期高达 3000 亿），这一系列举措释放出了极为强烈的流动性 宽松信号。不过，政策真正落地的具体时点仍然尚未明确，市场对于 6 月 MLF 利率是否会进行调整也 存在较大分歧。一旦降息预期未能实现，很可能会引发市场的短期抛压。此前，央行在类似政策表述 后，政策落地时间间隔存在较大差异，这无疑增加了市场预测的难度。就像在 2024 年，市场对降准降 息预期多次反复 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve post-pandemic, characterized by a steepening of the Phillips and Beveridge curves [1][2][4][5]. - The U.S. labor market has shown robust growth with unemployment rates remaining historically low, even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0-0.25% to 5.25%-5.5% over a span of 11 hikes [3][4]. - The average monthly non-farm employment from March 2022 to March 2025 is 230,400, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 178,000 [3]. Group 2 - The Phillips curve has become more vertical, indicating that despite a drop in inflation from 7.0% to 2.1%, the unemployment rate only increased from 3.6% to 4.1%, demonstrating the labor market's resilience [4]. - The Beveridge curve has steepened, showing that even with a decrease in job vacancy rates from 7.4% to 4.4%, the unemployment rate only rose slightly, further indicating labor market strength [5]. - The labor market is characterized by a significant "demand exceeding supply" situation, with a labor shortage exacerbated by slow recovery in labor supply post-pandemic [6]. Group 3 - Strong public and private investments, driven by the Biden administration's "Invest in America" agenda, have significantly boosted labor demand, with total spending around $1.2 trillion since late 2021 [7]. - Private sector investments have exceeded $1 trillion, particularly in manufacturing and non-residential construction, contributing to job growth despite high interest rates [7][8]. - The accumulation of "excess savings" and rising asset prices have supported consumer spending, which in turn has driven labor demand, creating a positive feedback loop in the economy [12][13]. Group 4 - The influx of low-cost immigrant labor has made the labor market both "scarce and relatively cheap," which has stimulated demand and mitigated the impact of high interest rates on business costs [14][15]. - The labor market's dynamics can explain the verticalization of the Phillips curve and the steepening of the Beveridge curve, as high demand persists even with rising interest rates [16]. - The neutral interest rate has risen post-pandemic, leading to an underestimation of the restrictive nature of the Federal Reserve's policy rates, which has contributed to the labor market's resilience [17][18]. Group 5 - In the short term, the labor market is expected to remain stable, with a gradual decrease in hiring rates but low levels of layoffs, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [20][21]. - In the medium to long term, uncertainties stemming from potential policy changes under the Trump administration could impact the labor market, particularly regarding tariffs and federal spending cuts [22].

｜2025年6月3日星期二｜ NO.1天风证券：市场交易情绪依然处于阶段性低位 天风证券（601162）研报表示，5月交易类指标环比持续下滑，表明市场交易情绪依然处于阶段性低 位，同时资产联动指标、市场配置指标指向市场向上的潜在空间依然较大，另外在投资者行为方面，回 购规模环比持续大幅上升，产业资本净减持幅度则大幅走阔，资金主体指标整体出现小幅回落迹象。 NO.2中金：综合内外部因素，市场或维持震荡格局 中金公司（601995）研报称，综合内外部因素，市场或维持震荡格局。风格层面，得益于流动性充裕与 科技叙事催化，中小盘成长股表现相对占优；利率下行背景下高股息资产吸引力相对提升但配置仍偏结 构性。配置层面：1.持续关注并购重组、破净修复等政策支持领域。2.景气回升并且受关税影响不大的 领域，例如AI产业链中的云计算、算力等基础设施环节，再到机器人、智能驾驶等应用环节，我们认 为仍是重要主线。此外，部分对美敞口不高的出口链，如工程机械、电网设备、商用车等也值得关注。 3.现金流优质、与外需关联度不高的红利板块，例如水电、电信运营商、食品饮料、银行等行业的龙头 公司。 NO.3中信建投：啤酒销量反弹，关注旺季改善 ...

魔芋品类空间广阔 20250602 魔芋食品行业的市场空间和发展前景如何？ 魔芋食品行业具有广阔的发展空间，预计未来有可能成为千亿级别的赛道。魔 芋，又称蒟蒻，是一种植物性食品，具有丰富的纤维素成分，主要成分为葡甘 聚糖，这种成分在食品添加剂、医疗保健、工业和农业等领域应用广泛。魔芋 产业链上游主要包括种植业和初加工业，中游则是精粉加工，下游应用主要集 中在食品、动物营养、保健品、化妆品及环保材料等领域。 根据一致魔芋的数 据，鲜魔芋到魔芋干片再到魔芋精粉的比例为 13:2:1，即 13 吨鲜魔芋可产出 2 吨干片和 1 吨精粉。中游环节中，随着技术成熟度提升，精粉可以进一步细 化为普通精粉和纯化精粉（如一致魔芋生产的纯化魔芋精粉）。下游应用中， 以食品为主，包括即食零食（如卫龙的辣味休闲零食）、蒟蒻果冻（如喜之郎、 溜溜果园等品牌）以及素食面（如阿宽方便面）。 2024 年卫龙的即食零食销 售额超过 30 亿元，加上渠道加价率 100%，终端销售额约 60 亿元，占据 魔芋精粉因强吸水膨胀力，在食品生产中成本占比低，毛利率高，推动 魔芋零食市场发展。魔芋零食满足健康需求，口味延展性丰富，吸引更 多消费者，市 ...

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观 】 全球变局：锚定"确定性"——国泰海通2025年中期宏观展望 全球进入货币体系重构时代： 全球经济体系重构的根源在于信任基础的变化，基于国际关系变化的信任 下降，会导致整个全球货币体系继续分化，重塑资产价格。"去美元化"确实在缓慢进行，主要是非经济因 素主导，尤其是国际关系变化、各国信任度的下降。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史维 度看待。 各国之间信任度变化的趋势很难改变，这也决定了本轮黄金的牛市是长期的、历史性的变化。 长期来看，只有美国经济纠偏能力还在，美元也不会崩溃。 但 中短期，需要关注美元信用可能进一步下 降。 美债利率实际利率、通胀预期、名义利率存在上行风险， 美元存在继续贬值风险，黄金上涨会加 速，日元、欧元、英镑等国际货币不排除进一步升值。 国内宏观：求诸于内，自胜者强。 中长期来看，我国经济具有较大潜力，不过，短期经济的需求仍然需 要提振。 2025 年要完成 5% 左右的增长目标，仍需积极政策继续发力。 风险提示 ： 稳增长政策落地进度不及预期，国际贸易环境超预期恶化 。 我们认为下半年宏观政策继续边际加码，尤其 ...

投资建议：结构分化，重视成长。 大众品首选新消费、高成长，白酒周期寻底，配置价值凸显。 白酒：分化加剧，更加理性。 25Q2 产业景气度仍在寻底，头部公司淡季韧性凸显。 与 2012-14 年的 行业调整期相比，本轮周期需求和预期的调整烈度相对较小、但调整周期明显拉长。上一轮白酒行业调整 呈 V 型，行业出清速度快；本轮调整更像 U 型，调整幅度相对较小，目前仍在筑底阶段。 我们认为 短 期股价走势已基本反应市场悲观预期，伴随政策预期回暖白酒板块有望迎来一轮估值修复。 啤酒 & 饮料：啤酒有望修复，饮料结构繁荣。 啤酒旺季将至、经营环比改善； 饮料仍处于单品势能释放 阶段。 | 本文摘自：2025年6月1日发布的 换季消费及成长——食品饮料2025年中期策略 | | --- | | 訾 猛 ，资格证书编号： S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040022 | | 徐 洋 ，资格证书编 号： S0880520120008 | | 姚世佳 ，资格证书编号： S0880520070001 | | 李 耀 ，资格证书编号： S0880520090 001 | | 程碧升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

若无法穿越时代周期和产品周期，旺旺或将退出历史舞台。 作者 | 金诺 编辑 | 鹤翔 出品 | 零售商业财经ID：Retail-Finiance 6月27日，中国旺旺控股有限公司（00151.HK,简称"旺旺"）披露了截至2023年3月31日的2022年全年财报业绩。 财报数据显示，旺旺在2022财年实现营收229.28亿元，较去年同期营收下滑4.41%。 | 財務摘要 | | | 單位：百萬人民幣 ( 除另有説明 ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FY21 | FY22 | YOY | | | 收益 | 23,985 | 22,928 | 4.4% V | 主因乳品及飲料類衰退 米果類、休閒類實現↑中至高個位數 海外收益↑雙位數 | | 毛利率 | 44.8% | 43.9% | 90bps V | 部分原材料及包材價格 ↑ | | 營運利潤 | 5,457 | 4,847 | 11.2% | | | | 22.8% | 21.1% | 170bps | | | 本公司權益持 | 4.203 | 3,372 | + 19.8% | √ 所得税税率29.6% ...

Core Viewpoint - Wei Long, known as the "King of Spicy Strips," is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, with plans to raise less than $150 million, a significant decrease from the initial target of $1 billion [2][3]. Group 1: IPO Timeline and Fundraising - Wei Long has delayed its IPO multiple times, initially aiming to raise $1 billion in 2021, but the target has now dropped by 85% to $150 million [3][4]. - The company first submitted its IPO application in May 2021 but did not receive approval until November 2021, after which it postponed the listing due to unfavorable market conditions [4][5]. - The latest update on November 23, 2023, indicates a further reduction in fundraising goals, with a projected market valuation of around $1.4 billion, down from previous estimates [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - Wei Long's revenue growth has slowed, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% from 2019 to 2021, while net profit growth has stagnated [6][7]. - The company's valuation has plummeted from 600 billion RMB to approximately 100 billion RMB, raising questions about whether it was previously overvalued [6][7]. - Comparatively, other companies in the snack food sector, such as Tao Li Bread and Three Squirrels, have lower price-to-earnings ratios, suggesting that Wei Long's current valuation may still be high [10][11]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Product Strategy - Wei Long's revenue declined by 1.8% in the first half of 2022, attributed to pandemic impacts and a drop in sales of its main products [11][12]. - The company has raised prices to counteract rising raw material costs, which has improved profit margins but negatively affected sales volume [11][12]. - Wei Long faces the challenge of shedding its "junk food" image, as consumer preferences shift towards healthier options, necessitating product innovation and reformulation [14][15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Wangwang, a well-known national brand, is struggling to keep up with the evolving market and consumer preferences, facing challenges from emerging food brands and a decline in its traditional product appeal [1][9]. Group 1: Marketing Issues - Wangwang has been penalized for false advertising, with a recent fine of 15,300 yuan for misleading claims about its high-calcium milk product [3][5]. - The company has a history of marketing failures, including past violations of advertising laws and misleading claims about product ingredients [6][7]. - Marketing strategies have not resonated with modern consumers, leading to ineffective campaigns that fail to attract new customer interest [10][12]. Group 2: Product and Innovation Challenges - Wangwang's flagship products, such as Wangzai milk, have not seen innovation in years, resulting in declining sales as consumer preferences shift towards healthier options [9][14]. - Despite attempts to launch new brands and products targeting different demographics, the reception has been lukewarm, indicating a lack of genuine innovation [10][12]. - The company has struggled to adapt to the online sales environment, missing out on significant e-commerce opportunities [11][12]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Recent financial results show a decline in revenue and profit, with a 4.83% drop in revenue to 10.833 billion yuan and a 23.6% decrease in net profit to 1.596 billion yuan for the first half of the 2022 fiscal year [13][14]. - The gross profit margin has been on a downward trend, falling from 48.05% in 2019 to 42.82% in the first half of 2022 [14]. - Analysts have expressed concerns about Wangwang's future performance, with several institutions lowering their target prices and profit forecasts due to challenging sales prospects [15].