Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, production in the southwest region is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise as the current valuation is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but both supply and demand are weakening. The decline in downstream products due to weak consumption has led to a drop in the polysilicon futures market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [9]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,265 yuan/ton and closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 270,959 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,079 lots, a change of - 176 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The domestic silicon - coal market showed a pattern of supply contraction, with a regional differentiation of "three increases, one decrease, and two stabilizations" since mid - October [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. As the monomer industry conference approached, most monomer factories had officially closed their offers and would resume quoting after the conference [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 11, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 53,600 yuan/ton and closing at 51,930 yuan/ton, a - 2.50% change from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 138,468 lots (125,974 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 324,598 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a - 0.77% change), silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW (a - 7.45% change), the weekly polysilicon production was 27,000.00 tons (a - 4.30% change), and the silicon wafer production was 13.45GW (a - 5.55% change) [5]. Silicon Wafers - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers decreased. Two leading silicon wafer companies took the lead in reducing production, driving other companies to implement production cuts in November. The planned production in November is expected to decrease by 3 - 4GW compared to the previous month. The supply pattern of the silicon wafer market has deteriorated due to excessive contract manufacturing. In November, battery manufacturers tightened demand and limited procurement prices, leading to a sharp reduction in procurement orders and panic selling by second - and third - tier silicon wafer companies with tight cash flows. This caused the silicon material futures price to drop during trading on the 11th, but the spot price of silicon material remained unchanged as of the time of publication [7]. Battery Cells and Components - The prices of battery cells and components were generally stable. For example, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, etc. The mainstream transaction prices of components also remained unchanged [8]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, and consider buying on dips for contracts during the dry season [4]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are proposed [4]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, with the price expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are proposed [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon supply is tightening, with demand mainly for rigid procurement. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and weak demand and high inventory are the main factors restricting price increases. Short - term silicon prices are expected to range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The "purchase and storage platform" for polysilicon has not been implemented, and the market has become desensitized. With weak demand and high inventory risks, polysilicon spot prices have declined, and the high premium in the futures market lacks support. Short - term prices are expected to consolidate, and previous long positions should protect profits [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - Petroleum coke prices have slightly increased, while silica, electrode prices have remained stable. With the southwest region entering the dry - season, power costs have significantly increased [3]. - In September, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 was - 1,029 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 252 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 267 yuan/ton [36]. 3.1.2 Supply - In Sichuan, as it enters the normal - water period and electricity prices rise, most manufacturers have stopped production. In Yunnan, due to the dry - season and increased costs, most businesses have stopped production. In the north, the start - up rate is slowly increasing, but a factory in Xinjiang reduced production last week. The overall supply is expected to fall below 400,000 tons in November, a decrease of about 12% [3]. - On November 7, the number of open furnaces decreased by 37 week - on - week, mainly in Sichuan and Yunnan, and slightly in Xinjiang [37]. 3.1.3 Demand - Some polysilicon manufacturers are under maintenance, and production is expected to decline. Organic silicon enterprises that previously cut production have gradually resumed, increasing the demand for industrial silicon, but purchases are mainly for rigid replenishment. The silicon - aluminum alloy industry has no plans to increase or decrease production, and the start - up rate is relatively stable [3]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Except for some southwest silicon enterprises that have reduced production, most manufacturers are in normal production. Due to low prices, silicon enterprises are reluctant to sell, and inventory continues to accumulate [3]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook - The oversupply situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. Weak demand and high inventory restrict price increases. Short - term silicon prices are expected to range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, polysilicon production was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. As of November 6, the inventory was 259,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons. In October, production was 134,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from September. In November, production is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons [68]. 3.2.2 Demand - The upstream demand from the component side is weak, and there is no obvious inventory - building action. The support from the battery - chip side is insufficient, and the silicon - wafer production plan for November has declined [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 6, the total polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory was 17.52GW. As of November 7, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 9,850 lots [3]. 3.2.4 Market Outlook - The "purchase and storage platform" has not been implemented, and the market has become desensitized. With weak demand and high inventory risks, polysilicon spot prices have declined, and the high premium in the futures market lacks support. Short - term prices are expected to consolidate [3]. 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - In October, the DMC start - up rate was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 percentage points, and the output was 209,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons. Recently, the previously maintained devices in Yunnan and Jiangxi have gradually resumed production, and the supply shows an increasing trend [97]. 3.3.2 Price - As of November 7, the average DMC price was 11,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.36%; the average 107 - rubber price was 11,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the average silicone oil price was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. In the long - term, prices may continue to weaken due to oversupply [104]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Start - up Rate - In the week of November 6, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.1%, remaining unchanged [112]. 3.4.2 Price - As of November 7, the average ADC12 price was 21,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.70%; the average A356 price was 22,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.38% [115]. 3.5 Inventory - As of November 6, the industrial silicon social inventory (social + delivery warehouse) was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons; the total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 172,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,900 tons. As of November 7, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 46,180 lots, equivalent to 230,900 tons of spot [126].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the supply improvement is limited. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be compensated by the new - demand growth. With the expected end of the US government shutdown and improved market sentiment, long positions should be held. The subsequent trend depends on the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar [1]. Nickel - The macro - environment has some pressure, and the industry is multi - empty intertwined. The supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [4]. Stainless Steel - The policy and macro - drive are weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 12,500 - 13,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro and policy environment is favorable, and the capital is optimistic. The fundamentals show a slight increase in production. The short - term price has a strong reality support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. The subsequent trend depends on the demand change in the off - season and the upstream project release [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it is less than in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of the November contract [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expectations in each link. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The trading strategy includes low - level trial - buying in the futures market, selling put options in the options market, and holding or taking profits in the equity market [12]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price will be in a game between event - drive and weak fundamentals, with the main contract referring to 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as LME warehouse receipts and overseas macro - trends [15]. Copper - The copper price rebounded slightly. In the macro - aspect, there may be a "vacuum period" in November. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has strong resilience. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price center. The main contract should pay attention to the 84,000 - 85,000 support [17]. Zinc - The liquidity risk of zinc is expected to be mitigated. The supply pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand is average. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost the domestic price. The main contract refers to 22,300 - 23,000 [20]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is strongly volatile. The cost has rigid support, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract referring to 20,400 - 21,100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as scrap aluminum supply and inventory changes [22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.74% to 285,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 30% to 650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 7.99% to - 14,989.79 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 121,200 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 20% to 3,600 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 7.99% to - 1,825 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 124.36% month - on - month. The SHFE and social inventories increased [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 9.88% to 365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the net export volume decreased by 9.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.44% to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 88.49% to 290 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.70% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 10.90% month - on - month [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon spot increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,290 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties decreased [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% month - on - month. The social inventory decreased slightly [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The N - type polysilicon average price remained unchanged, and the futures price increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis decreased by 49.75% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% week - on - week, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory decreased slightly [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.23% to 21,490 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 202.3 yuan/ton to - 2,316 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum profile and cable operating rates decreased [15]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.60% to 86,232 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 13.58% to 3,394 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 26.50% month - on - month. The domestic social inventory decreased [17]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.31% to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 596.07 yuan/ton to - 4,818 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85% month - on - month, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.30% week - on - week [20]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 2.78% to 1,751 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month, and the social inventory increased by 1.82% week - on - week [22].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve due to the slight increase in spot prices and production cuts during the dry season in the southwest. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. With the expected increase in silicon - coal prices, there is some support for industrial silicon. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [2][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but there is still significant inventory pressure. The downstream production schedule may weaken, and consumer support is average. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][8]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On November 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,230 yuan/ton and closed at 9,290 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton (1.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,503 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,255 lots, a change of 75 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase), and 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, with no change. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and others increased, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [2]. - In Yunnan, the dry season has arrived. Most silicon enterprises in production stopped production at the end of October, and a few stopped in early November. Currently, there are only over 20 silicon furnaces in production in the entire Yunnan region, and the remaining enterprises are of the integrated or long - order delivery types [2]. - The consumption side: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton with no change. Yunneng Silicon Materials' Qujing Branch completed a key technological transformation project, which improved the tank utilization rate to 100% and laid a foundation for process optimization and cost control [3]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, buy on dips - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [4] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile trend, opening at 53,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,720 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 125,974 lots (125,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 218,786 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg, with no change. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a month - on - month change of - 0.77%), and silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW (a month - on - month change of - 7.45%). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,000 tons (a month - on - month change of - 4.30%), and silicon wafer production was 13.45GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.55%) [5][6]. - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase compared to September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [6]. - Silicon wafer prices: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.32 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, with no change [6]. - Battery cell prices: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W, with no change [6]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W, with no change [7]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are both decreasing, with slow inventory depletion. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of large factories in the northwest [6]. - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract bottomed out and rebounded, closing at 9220 yuan/ton on November 7 [6]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in Xinjiang remained stable, with a slight increase in output; the operating rate in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little; most silicon enterprises in Yunnan stopped production in late October, and some stopped in early November; some silicon enterprises in Sichuan may stop production partially. Overall, the output of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon enterprises decreased month - on - month; the operating rate of silicone was basically stable; the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises changed little, with on - demand procurement. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 552000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 53215 yuan/ton on November 7 [7]. - **Supply**: The output of polysilicon in October was 137400 tons, a slight increase from September. In November, with the successive shutdowns in the southwest production areas, the production schedule of polysilicon declined significantly [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand remained weak, and price transmission in the industrial chain was poor. Silicon wafer and battery prices were loose, and downstream crystal - pulling enterprises only maintained rigid - demand procurement. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28% [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: There was little change in inventory recently, and there was still a possibility of inventory accumulation as subsequent orders decreased [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price and Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 and 421 oxygen - passed were unchanged from last week; the spread between Yunnan's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon and Xinjiang's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon remained stable compared with last week [10][14]. - **Polysilicon Price and Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices of N - type dense material, P - type dense material, and P - type cauliflower material were unchanged from last week; the spread between N - type dense material and P - type dense material, and N - type dense material and P - type cauliflower material remained stable compared with last week [17][21]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of November 7, 2025, the delivered prices of silicon coal in Ningxia and Xinjiang remained stable; the delivered prices of silica stone in Hubei, Xinjiang, and Yunnan remained stable [25]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong ports remained stable; the electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained stable [28]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of wood chips and charcoal in Yunnan, and high - power graphite electrodes in Jiangsu remained stable [32]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of November 7, 2025, the average prices of N - type silicon wafers decreased slightly compared with last week. Affected by weak terminal demand and cautious downstream procurement, silicon wafer prices decreased slightly, but the decline space may be limited due to cost support [34]. - **Batteries**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared with last week. The battery market continued to be weak, with component manufacturers pressing prices and battery manufacturers lowering quotes [38]. - **Components**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of TOPCon components remained stable. The market demand was differentiated, with large - size components having firm quotes due to domestic centralized project demand, while conventional - size components had high inventory and weak demand, with prices hovering at low levels [41]. - **Organic Silicon**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China increased by 500 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the operating rate was basically stable [45]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, and they procured industrial silicon on - demand [49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [86] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is pricing in the expectation of mine restart and continues to trade based on demand narratives. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a state of double - reduction in supply and demand in November, while lithium carbonate shows an increase in supply and strong demand [7][8][86]. - For industrial silicon, due to the dry season in the southwest, production is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9400. Polysilicon's production cut in November and the steady progress of capacity storage maintain the view of long - term improvement in fundamentals, with prices oscillating between 4.8 - 5.8. Lithium carbonate is bullish, but the upward trend depends on the supply - side restart situation [7][8][86]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 9.10 tons, a 7.85% decrease from the previous week. In November, the planned production is 38.95 tons, a 13.88% decrease from the previous month. The dry season in the southwest has led to a large - scale furnace shutdown [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon is 2.92 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month. The organic silicon weekly production is 4.79 tons, a 5.51% increase from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 21.76 tons, a 3.82% increase from the previous month [7]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.23 tons, a 1.22% increase from the previous week, showing a slight accumulation. The industry inventory is 46.14 tons, a 3.06% increase from the previous week [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9245 yuan, a 1.66% increase from the previous week, and the profit per ton is - 45 yuan, a 225 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The average profit per ton in the main production areas has increased [7]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9400 [7]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.92 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 13.24GW, a 1.54% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 57.66GW, a 4.93% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 27.69 tons, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, showing continuous accumulation [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41603 yuan, a 0.12% increase from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 8647 yuan, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous week [8]. - **News**: The total investment in capacity storage may range from 20 billion to 30 billion yuan, but the specific amount is uncertain [8]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate between 4.8 - 5.8 [8]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.15 tons, a 2.15% increase from the previous week. The planned production in November is about 9.21 tons, a 0.20% decrease from the previous month [86]. - **Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.96 tons, a 10.30% decrease from the previous month, and the import volume of lithium concentrate was 52.05 tons, a 10.61% increase from the previous month [86]. - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 9.69 tons, a 9.52% increase from the previous week, and the weekly production of ternary materials is 1.97 tons, a 2.61% increase from the previous week [86]. - **Terminal Demand**: In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a 16.29% increase from the previous month, and the sales volume was 1.604 million, a 14.96% increase from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative tender for energy storage was 201.5GWh, a 44% increase year - on - year [86]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 12.40 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous week, showing continuous destocking [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of外购 lithium mica for lithium extraction is 82865 yuan/ton, a 3.28% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 5626 yuan/ton, a 3204 - yuan increase from the previous week [86]. - **Investment View**: Bullish, but the upward trend depends on the supply - side restart situation [86].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon prices stabilized and rebounded due to reduced production during the dry season in Southwest China, a new balance cycle in the photovoltaic industry chain, and the gradual recovery of traditional industries. The supply side has entered a marginal contraction, while the demand side shows different trends in various segments. The new platform for polysilicon capacity clearance continues to boost market sentiment, and the 14th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the development of a new energy system. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 552,000 tons, and the spot market remained stable. Technically, the futures price is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend in the short term [2][5][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The industrial silicon futures price decreased by 2.28% from October 31st to November 7th, while the prices of various spot grades remained unchanged except for organic silicon DMC, which increased by 1.36%. The industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1.08% to 552,000 tons [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro**: In September, China's industrial enterprise profits increased significantly, with high - tech manufacturing playing a leading role. From January to September, the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 8.7% year - on - year, accelerating by 2.7 percentage points compared to January - August [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: By November 6th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 90,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas decreased to 273, with the overall furnace opening rate rising to 34.3%. On the demand side, the polysilicon market is cautious, silicon wafer prices may lose support, battery cell prices are close to cash costs, and component inventory is expected to drop to 31GW [7]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 552,000 tons, and the exchange registered warehouse receipts decreased to 231,000 tons. The 5 - series warehouse receipts are actively registering [8]. 3. Industry News - On October 31st, Inner Mongolia released a plan for a clean energy base project in the Kubuqi Desert with a total installed capacity of 6 million kilowatts [10]. - Nantong Crystal Co., Ltd. received an investment of 100 million yuan from Guotou Jixin, a subsidiary of the third phase of the National Big Fund, and its registered capital increased from 300 million yuan to 400 million yuan [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, exchange warehouse receipts, and the production of related products such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - This week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained largely stable with minor fluctuations, while the futures price oscillated downward. The downstream demand decreased slightly, and the procurement sentiment was poor. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, but there were also some bullish factors such as cost increases and production cuts in the southwest [6]. - The recommended strategy is to maintain a short position when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon was largely stable with minor fluctuations, and the market atmosphere was sluggish. The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The spot price decreased slightly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The southwest region gradually reduced production, and the downstream demand was weak [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Bearish Logic**: High supply in October, high inventory, and limited demand growth in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Bullish Logic**: Cost increase, production cuts in Xinjiang and the southwest, and expectations of the dry season in the southwest [6]. - **Recommended Strategy**: Short positions can be established when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: The spot price was stable with minor fluctuations, and the futures price oscillated strongly. The market was in a state of "strong expectation" and "weak reality" [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Bearish Logic**: High inventory, loose supply, weak downstream transactions, and poor fundamentals [12]. - **Bullish Logic**: Rising component tender prices, policy support, and industrial linkage effects [13]. - **Recommended Strategy**: Hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Data Review Price Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract Si2601 was 9,220 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from last week. The trading volume increased by 29.79%, and the open interest increased by 17.38% [27]. - **Spot**: The prices of Tongyang 5530 and Tongyang 4210 in the East China market remained unchanged from last week [27]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Si2601 (East China 553) decreased by 52.17%, and the basis of Si2601 (East China 421) decreased by 25% [27]. Supply and Demand Data - **Supply**: The overall industrial silicon production decreased by 7.85% this week, and the opening rate decreased to 34.30%. The southwest region saw a significant decline in production, while the northwest region also had a slight decrease [28][58]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy was weak. The production of polysilicon decreased by 5.05%, and the production of organic silicon increased by 5.22% [28]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 554,800 tons, up 4.8% from last week, while the futures inventory decreased by 505 tons [28][80]. Cost and Profit Data - **Cost**: The production cost increased mainly due to the rising price of petroleum coke and electricity in the southwest region [78]. - **Profit**: The profit decreased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week [78]. 3.3 Polysilicon Data Review Price Data - **Spot**: The price of P - type polysilicon remained unchanged at 44,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 1.54% to 51,000 yuan/ton [119]. - **Futures**: The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform [12]. Supply and Demand Data - **Supply**: In November, the polysilicon production is expected to decrease, with a north - south difference in production changes. The overall supply is still at a high level, and the inventory continued to rise [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand was weak. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components decreased, and the procurement sentiment was poor [119][126]. Cost and Profit Data - **Cost**: The average production cost decreased to 41,553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% [132]. - **Profit**: The gross profit and gross margin increased slightly, but the overall profit level was still low [132].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Performance**: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated upward, with the benchmark product at 9,092 yuan/ton on November 7, almost unchanged from 9,087 yuan/ton on October 31. In the futures market, the main contract of industrial silicon rose, with the latest transaction price at 9,220 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.32%. The open interest of the main contract was about 268,300 lots [6]. - **Supply**: After the end of the wet - season, most manufacturers in the southwest main production areas reduced or halted production, leading to a significant decline in output. The operating rate in the northwest decreased slightly, and overall market supply decreased compared to the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". High inventory and weak demand suppress the spot price, and leading enterprises cut production in November, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. The organic silicon DMC plants in Jiangxi and Yunnan have gradually resumed operation, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. The output of aluminum rods decreased this week, and the capacity utilization rate rebounded, with demand for industrial silicon remaining relatively stable. Export demand decreased in September [6]. - **Cost, Profit and Inventory**: The production cost of industrial silicon increased this week due to a slight increase in petroleum coke prices, and the prices of silica and electrodes in the southwest were basically stable. The electricity price in the southwest will rise next week, further increasing production costs. The profit of industrial silicon decreased slightly due to increased costs. The industry inventory is at a relatively high level, and with most southwest manufacturers halting production and low market prices, manufacturers are not willing to sell, resulting in little change in inventory. As of November 6, the inventory in the industrial silicon futures delivery warehouse was about 231,000 tons [6]. - **Outlook**: Although the operating rate of industrial silicon has decreased, due to the previous increase in the northwest, buyers' purchasing mentality is not active, and most purchase on - demand. It is expected that the short - term market price of industrial silicon will fluctuate slightly [6]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on si2601 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton; or sell out - of - the - money call options; or adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy between industrial silicon and polysilicon [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Views and Hot News - **Week - to - Week Views**: Analyzed market performance, supply, demand, cost, profit, inventory, and provided outlook and trading strategies as mentioned above [6]. - **Hot News**: A polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform is being planned, with a proposed fund of about 70 billion yuan, to be acquired in a "debt - assumption" way. TBEA denied the rumor of its polysilicon capacity being acquired. Relevant policies on new - energy power consumption and the electronic information manufacturing industry's growth plan were introduced [7]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - **Industrial Chain**: The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc., and downstream products such as organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloys, which are widely used in electronics, construction, and other fields [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Price and Basis**: Provided price trends and basis data of different grades and regions of industrial silicon, including 553 and 421 grades in various ports and regions [13][24]. - **Futures Contracts**: Showed the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active contracts of industrial silicon [33]. 3.4 Inventory - Presented the inventory data of the industrial silicon industry, including factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [47]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: Displayed the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon [55]. - **Electricity Price**: Showed the electricity prices in main and non - main production areas [62][76]. - **Other Raw Materials**: Presented the prices of silica, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal [90][95]. 3.6 Supply - **Output**: Showed the weekly and monthly output, operating rate, and monthly capacity of industrial silicon. There are also plans for new production capacity in multiple regions, with a total of 1.88 million tons of new capacity planned [108][115]. 3.7 Demand - **Consumption Overview**: Analyzed the consumption structure and quantity of industrial silicon in different fields such as alloys, polysilicon, etc. [118]. - **Polysilicon**: Showed the production, price, inventory, and cost of polysilicon [124][129]. - **Organic Silicon**: Presented the price, production, cost, and profit of organic silicon [132][137]. - **Aluminum Rods**: Showed the production, inventory, and price of aluminum rods, as well as the operating rate and production of aluminum alloys [142][149]. - **Solar/PV**: Displayed the cumulative production and price of solar cells [164]. 3.8 Import and Export - **Industrial Silicon**: Showed the import and export volume of industrial silicon [173]. - **Polysilicon**: Presented the import and export volume of polysilicon [178].