Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest rate cuts. Although there are positive feedbacks on investment and consumption, there are still tail risks. Domestically, the market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved, and recent real - estate policies in first - tier cities may boost transaction volume [7]. - In the short term, market volatility in China may increase. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. The political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market interest - rate cut expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the improvement of mid - stream profits in July. In the real - estate market, first - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, which may increase transaction volume but the sustainability needs to be observed [7]. - **Asset Views**: In China, short - term market volatility may increase at the beginning of September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, supporting total demand recovery [7]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options will fluctuate, and treasury bond futures will also be in a shock state, still depending on the performance of the stock market [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise in shock as the US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, but market risks need attention [8]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to be in a shock state due to factors like inventory changes, policy influences, and supply - demand relationships [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Although the weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, the weak demand also needs attention. Most varieties will be in a shock state, with zinc prices expected to fall in shock [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to fall in shock, while most other chemical products will be in a shock state due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, new - capacity pressures, and cost changes [10]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, including grains, oils, and fibers, are expected to be in a shock state, waiting for further information such as field inspection results [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) declined. The closing price of the main EG contract was 4339 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton (-1.99%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4453 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.20%). The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$50/ton, down $3/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -40 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton [2]. - The inventory in the main ports of East China showed a downward trend. According to CCF data, it was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The planned arrival in the main ports of East China this week is 9.8 tons, a moderate amount [2]. - On the supply side, domestic EG load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load possibly falling in September. Overseas supply has suffered many losses, and the import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly. The supply - demand balance from August to September is loose, with few contradictions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4339 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton (-1.99%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4453 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.20%). The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$50/ton, down $3/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -40 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton. The domestic EG load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load possibly falling in September [2][3] III. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - The current demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [3] V. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The planned arrival in the main ports of East China this week is 9.8 tons, a moderate amount [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual product outlooks are given, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. These ratings are based on the expected price movements of the products within the next 2 - 12 weeks, with different definitions for each rating in terms of standard deviations [272]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil has shown a slightly stronger trend recently. Concerns about supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have boosted oil prices, but the overall market is still under supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience. The market expects OPEC+ to maintain the current production policy at the upcoming meeting. Oil prices are likely to oscillate to digest the supply disturbances caused by the Ukraine attacks [1]. - The chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. There is no dominant market logic, and futures prices fluctuate with raw materials and market sentiment. The uncertainty of the commissioning time of chemical plants, especially ethylene glycol plants, increases the difficulty of investment. If the chemical industry rebounds following crude oil, investors can gradually short products with severe over - capacity, such as olefins [2]. - Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address the over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela and Trump's changing attitude towards Russia support geopolitical premiums and increase oil price volatility. However, the supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience makes it difficult to reverse the market's oversupply expectation. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to a significant increase in the geopolitical premium of asphalt. - **Main Logic**: The market has refocused on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+增产, but the recent escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to expectations of a supply cut in asphalt raw materials, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased significantly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela have enhanced the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the increase is limited by the increase in warehouse receipts. The import tariff of fuel oil in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has changed. The three main drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a weakening trend. Geopolitical upgrades are expected to have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the increase in crude oil prices. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has oscillated and declined following crude oil. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations while maintaining a low valuation [10]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is still an expectation of shutdown in the far - month contract, and the methanol futures price has rebounded. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, the methanol futures price oscillated. The far - month shutdown expectation has caused the futures price to decline first and then rebound significantly. The fundamentals of downstream olefins provide limited support. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for going long in the far - month can be considered [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The release of the Indian tender has been postponed, and the market is generally waiting and watching. It is expected to strengthen soon. - **Main Logic**: As of September 2, information on the Indian tender and export policies has not been finalized, and the market is waiting and watching. The futures price has rebounded slightly, and the spot prices in different regions have diverged. The supply is expected to decrease, and the autumn demand is expected to pick up. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender price and subsequent export progress [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The news of commissioning has stimulated the futures market to weaken. - **Main Logic**: The narrow fluctuations of coal and oil prices provide limited cost guidance. The news of the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene and downstream products has had a negative impact on the market, increasing supply pressure. Although the supply - demand structure shows some signs of weakening, the market is still in the de - stocking cycle, which provides some support [14][15][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost and sentiment fluctuations are still the main driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment is poor, and PX has continued to decline. The upstream load has remained stable, but the commissioning of aromatic hydrocarbon plants has increased supply pressure. The downstream PTA plants are operating at a low level, and polyester demand is fair. PX is expected to maintain a tight balance, and its price is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: It is oscillating to find support, and cost and sentiment dominate the direction. - **Main Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine issue has stalled, and the crude oil market has been in a stalemate, providing limited guidance. After the hype of upstream plants subsided, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the spot basis weakened. The downstream polyester sales and production have limited improvement, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. It is expected to seek support downward in the short term, with a limited overall decline [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the quality of demand still needs to be verified. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the absolute price of short - fiber has declined accordingly. The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, the downstream sales and production are mediocre, and the terminal's procurement behavior is cautious. The quality of the peak season still needs to be verified. The absolute value of short - fiber will fluctuate with raw materials and oscillate in the short term [16]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is still seeking support, and the price of polyester bottle chips is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall order intake has declined in the off - season. The processing margin has no obvious expansion driver and will maintain an oscillating consolidation [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity through plant maintenance has limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. The demand has a peak - off - season switch, and the pipe - making industry's start - up rate has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [22]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL follows the short - term fluctuations of PP. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, PL oscillated. Propylene enterprises' inventories are at a low level, and they are mainly pushing up prices. Downstream factories purchase on demand. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the polypropylene processing fee is the key focus on the market [23]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The performance of peak - season demand is the short - term focus, and plastic is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity and the elimination of South Korean petrochemical capacity have limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. There is still a capital game in the macro - environment, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation still exists. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, with high production and inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate and purchasing willingness [21]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price of pure benzene will oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the market expects a tightening supply due to planned maintenance in the Middle East and reduced exports from Russian refineries. However, the increase in imported pure benzene at the port and the return of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry have led to a decline in the price of pure benzene. The demand verification is crucial as the peak season approaches, but the orders of downstream products have not improved significantly [13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and styrene continues to decline. - **Main Logic**: The decline of styrene is mainly due to the cooling of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry and the black commodity sentiment. Its fundamentals are poor, and it is significantly weaker than other chemical products. The explicit and implicit inventories are high, and the cost support is insufficient. The peak - season demand has not materialized, and the downstream demand is weak. There is some support at the valuation level of 7000 - 7100, but there is no positive driver for a rebound [14][15][16]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak market conditions are suppressing PVC, and it is operating weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with a decline in cost. The production is expected to decline in September due to autumn maintenance, the downstream start - up rate has not changed much, the export expectation is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The market sentiment is poor, and the inventory is increasing, so the market is expected to operate weakly [25]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and the market is on hold for now. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand for replenishment, improved non - aluminum start - up rates, increased export orders, and a slight decline in production due to maintenance. The spot price has reached a temporary peak, and the market is expected to oscillate due to the expectation of alumina production in the far - month [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the A-share market, particularly driven by the artificial intelligence sector, while highlighting the shift of institutional investors towards the chemical sector due to anticipated supply-side reforms and the elimination of outdated production capacity [6][9][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 15% since June, nearing a 10-year high [6]. - The ChiNext Index has seen a nearly 40% increase, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [9]. - Institutional investors, cautious about chasing high prices, have begun to invest in the chemical sector [11]. Group 2: Policy Impacts - The sixth Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality, signaling a significant policy shift [12]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's meeting on July 2 sparked a major rally in the polysilicon market, with prices soaring over 80% in less than a month [12][13]. - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on July 30 reiterated the focus on orderly capacity reduction in key industries, indicating a more market-oriented approach to supply-side reforms [14]. Group 3: Chemical Industry Dynamics - The chemical industry has experienced significant capacity expansion since 2018, but demand growth has not kept pace, leading to overcapacity [16][17]. - The utilization rate for chemical raw materials and products is at 71.90%, below the national industrial average [17]. - The profitability of the chemical industry has declined, with operating income margins dropping from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024 [17]. Group 4: Potential Paths for Reform - One potential path for reform is the forced elimination of outdated production capacity through improved technical standards [18]. - Another approach could involve implementing a quota system, as seen in the refrigerant industry, which has led to reduced supply and increased prices [19][22]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector is seen as a significant investment opportunity, particularly in areas with high industry concentration and severe overcapacity [26]. - The glycine phosphonate and organic silicon sectors are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of upcoming policy changes [27][29]. - The organic silicon market is expected to see a rebound due to strong domestic demand and a reduction in overseas capacity [30]. Group 6: Conclusion - Overall, the chemical industry is poised for a cyclical recovery, with low valuations and potential policy support making it a likely focus for A-share market investments [31].

Industry Overview Mid - view Events - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the advancement of artificial intelligence. After the release of the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", Shanghai responded promptly by launching the project application for the 2025 Shanghai "Artificial Intelligence +" Action [1] - In the service industry, attention should be given to the new tax policy. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income from the investment of transferred state - owned equity and cash income, effective from April 1, 2024 [1] Upstream - In the black industry, wire rod prices declined [2] - In the chemical industry, PTA prices continued to fall [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate increased [3] - In the infrastructure sector, the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities slightly increased [4] - In the service sector, the number of domestic flights decreased [4] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: On September 2, the spot price of corn was 2301.4 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.19%; the spot price of eggs had a year - on - year decrease of 0.77%; the spot price of palm oil was 9492.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.51%; the spot price of cotton was 15414.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%; the average wholesale price of pork was 19.8 yuan/kg with a year - on - year decrease of 1.05% [38] - Non - ferrous metals: On September 2, the spot price of copper was 80130.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.62%; the spot price of zinc was 22132.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.65%; the spot price of aluminum was 20636.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the spot price of nickel was 124383.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.72% [38] - Ferrous metals: On September 2, the spot price of aluminum was 16800.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; the spot price of rebar was 3186.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the spot price of iron ore was 22132.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.65% [38] - Others: On September 2, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 64.6 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 68.1 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3928.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; the coal price was 782.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.13% [38]

需求端来看，五矿期货分析称，港口MTO利润延续改善但需求表现较弱，传统需求仍未有明显好转， 甲醇整体下游表现一般。 展望后市，宁证期货表示，国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求较稳，甲醇港口库存继续积累，9月预期 进口量维持高位。内地甲醇市场持稳，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市场基差维稳，商谈成交一般。预 计甲醇01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2370一线，建议观望或短线做多。 9月3日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报2386.00元/ 吨，震荡上行0.34%。 库存方面，据申银万国期货介绍，截至8月28日，沿海地区甲醇库存在129.95万吨（目前库存处于历史 偏高位置），相比8月21日上涨5.1万吨，涨幅为4.08%，同比上涨19.71%。 供应方面，瑞达期货（002961）指出，近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失 量，整体产量小幅增加。西北地区新一轮长约开始，车辆匹配节奏对提货稍有影响，叠加部分检修项目 恢复正常生产，上周内地企业库存水平有所增加。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing active research in life sciences and the global wave of biotechnology revolution, which is accelerating integration into economic and social development, providing new solutions for major challenges such as health, climate change, resource security, and food security. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Bioeconomy," indicating a trillion-yuan market potential in the bioeconomy sector [3][4]. Market Performance - The synthetic biology index, composed of 58 listed companies involved in synthetic biology and related technologies, rose by 8.25% to 1845.19 during the week of August 25-29, 2025. This performance outpaced the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.41% and the ChiNext Index by 0.51% [4][19]. - The overall performance of synthetic biology stocks met expectations, with an increase of 8.25%, ranking second among various sectors [19]. Company Developments - The report mentions several significant developments in the synthetic biology sector: - The first synthetic biology project in Ordos City, with an investment of 230 million yuan, aims to produce 4,000 tons of bio-based calcium propionate annually, positioning itself as the largest producer of clean label products globally [10]. - The successful trial of the world's first bio-based 1,5-pentanediol process by Seabear, achieving over 99.5% purity, which is significant for high-end cosmetics and biomedicine [26]. - A framework cooperation agreement for a 31 billion yuan green hydrogen methanol integrated project was signed in Duolun County, aiming to produce 200,000 tons of green hydrogen and 1 million tons of green methanol annually [26]. - The successful licensing of the SRJET bio-jet fuel production technology by Sinopec's research institute to Total Energy, marking its entry into the global market [27]. Financing Trends - The report notes an acceleration in financing for synthetic biology companies, with nearly a hundred companies completing new financing rounds since the beginning of 2025. Notable financing activities include: - Nanjing Batefly completing a round of financing to develop high-performance packaging solutions [34]. - Huaxi Biological's exclusive investment from CVC Fund for the commercialization of a new generation of pre-filled syringes [36]. Research Directions - The report outlines several innovative research directions: - Zhongke Guosheng's development of a bio-based aromatic polyamide fiber using FDCA, marking a breakthrough in the bio-based materials sector [38]. - Zhengtong Technology's new biodegradable polyester, which combines the biodegradability of aliphatic polyesters with the mechanical properties of aromatic polyesters, receiving national patent authorization [39].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月3日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1090 | 1090 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1240 | 1240 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1238 | 1274 | -36 | -2.83% | | | 玻璃2509 | 943 | વેવે | -53 | -5.32% | | | 05基差 | -d8 | -134 | 36 | 26.87% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rolled steel: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and strong [4] - Silver: Volatile and strong [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 boosts raw material sentiment, and iron ore prices are relatively strong. Short - term iron ore fundamentals have limited contradictions and are expected to fluctuate at high levels following finished products. Coal and coke fundamentals are weakening, and the black sector is in a weakening trend. Rolled steel is in a weak fundamental pattern, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. [2] - The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. Gold is expected to be volatile and strong due to various factors such as central bank purchases and market uncertainties. [4] - Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and they are expected to be volatile. Meal prices are also expected to be volatile. Live pig prices are expected to rise slightly next week. [6][7] - Rubber supply is tight, and demand and inventory are favorable, so it is expected to be volatile and strong. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand and cost situations, with most in a wait - and - see or volatile state. [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The "restriction on production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand. The global shipment is slightly down, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure. It is expected to follow finished products and fluctuate at high levels. [2] - **Coal and coke**: Fundamentals are weakening, with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, and demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] - **Rolled steel**: In a weak fundamental pattern, supply remains high, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to be weak. [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment is cooling, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. Demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rising and some being volatile. [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is down, and the market has a net capital withdrawal. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank purchases are key. With factors such as the US debt problem and market uncertainties, gold and silver are expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but demand improvement is uncertain. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. [6] - **Logs**: Supply pressure is not large, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is uncertain. The inventory is declining, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil varieties is increasing. They are expected to be volatile. [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the export situation is not improved. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. They are expected to be volatile. [6][7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average weight of pigs is decreasing, and the demand for slaughter is increasing. With the start of school, the demand is expected to increase, and prices are expected to rise slightly. [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is tight due to weather conditions, demand is relatively stable, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong. [9] Polyester Sector - **PX**: Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and PX supply - demand turns weak. The price follows oil prices. [9] - **PTA**: Cost support is general, supply decreases, and demand improves. The price follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. [9] - **MEG**: Port inventory is decreasing, supply pressure increases, and it is expected to be in a wide - balance state in the medium - term. The price is supported by low inventory. [9] - **PR**: There is no substantial positive driving force in supply - demand, and it is expected to be range - bound. [9] - **PF**: The supply - demand is weak, but the overnight oil price rise may support the cost. It is expected to be volatile. [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the energy - chemical sector show different trends. For example, PX is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation with positive spreads; PTA has a slightly upward - trending price with limited downside; MEG is weakly oscillating; rubber and paper pulp are oscillating; synthetic rubber has short - term support; asphalt is strengthened by geopolitical events; LLDPE is short - term weak and medium - term oscillating; PP has long - term pressure; etc. [2][10][11] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: 11 - 01 positive spread, 1 - 5 negative spread. Long PX and short EB. Buy on dips before mid - September. Supply will marginally increase in September, but PX supply - demand remains in a tight - balance due to upcoming PTA new production [5][10]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is slightly upward - trending with limited downside. Partially stop profiting from long PTA and short MEG. Polyester sales are weak, but there is still demand for procurement and restocking [10]. - **MEG**: Unilateral price is weakly oscillating. Reduce short positions. Partially stop profiting from long PTA and short MEG. Hold 1 - 5 negative spread. Supply is expected to increase after October, while demand is weak [11]. Rubber - Rubber is oscillating. Most tire listed companies' revenues increased in H1 2025, but profits declined. In Q3, raw material prices rose, and tire companies' profits were squeezed. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [12][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is short - term oscillating with support. The upper limit is pressured by high supply and inventory, and the lower limit is supported by anti - involution policies. It mainly fluctuates with macro - sentiment this week [18][20]. Asphalt - Asphalt is strengthened by geopolitical events. The US - Venezuela situation is tense. This week's domestic asphalt production decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [21][31][35]. LLDPE - LLDPE is short - term weak and medium - term oscillating. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak season for the agricultural film industry. Recently, commodity sentiment has declined, and futures are weak. Supply remains stable in September, and inventory pressure is not significant [36][37]. PP - PP is short - term oscillating and long - term pressured. Short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase as maintenance devices resume production and new capacity comes online [40][41]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is widely oscillating. The main obstacle to price increase is export. Domestic demand is stable, and non - aluminum demand may improve in the peak season. The key lies in the production start - up rhythm in Guangxi [44][46]. Pulp - Pulp is oscillating. The pulp market showed a mild recovery yesterday. The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and port inventory is high. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and downstream price increases [50][53]. Glass - Glass original sheet prices are stable. The short - term supply - demand situation has little change, and the mid - and downstream maintain a rigid procurement rhythm [55][56]. Methanol - Methanol is short - term rebounding and medium - term oscillating. The short - term is supported by the September 3rd parade event. The mid - term will return to the fundamental trading logic. Port inventory is high, but the price downside is limited [58][61][62]. Urea - Urea is short - term rebounding and medium - term pressured. It may be strengthened by macro - sentiment in the short term, but it is under pressure due to high inventory and high premium in the medium term [64][65][66]. Styrene - Styrene is medium - term bearish. After the end of anti - involution speculation, the long - short contradiction is accumulating. The industry still has high expectations for the peak season, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak [67][68]. Soda Ash - Soda ash spot market has little change. The domestic market is weakening, with a decline in comprehensive production and sluggish downstream demand [69][71]. LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Macro risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as CP paper prices and device maintenance [74][79]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are supported, but there is a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to factors such as the spread with futures and device maintenance [74]. PVC - PVC is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The "alkali - chlorine compensation" model reduces the motivation for production reduction [82]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It turned down at night and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [84]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fluctuations intensify, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the overseas market has risen significantly [84]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is widely oscillating. Freight rates show different trends, and the supply of shipping capacity also has corresponding changes [86].