Market Overview - On March 20, the market indices closed lower with a trading volume of 2.29 trillion, an increase of approximately 160 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.3%[4] Industry Performance - Most industries experienced declines, particularly in computer, military, media, chemical, and oil sectors, while only a few, such as power equipment and communication, showed gains[1] - The market sentiment remains unstable, with significant fluctuations observed in various sectors, despite some temporary rebounds[1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China emphasized maintaining stability in financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, indicating a potential liquidity support mechanism for non-bank financial institutions[1] Fund Flows - On March 20, net outflow from the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 14.153 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw a net inflow of 12.275 billion[5] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were photovoltaic equipment, batteries, and communication devices, while IT services, software development, and communication services saw the most outflows[5] Economic Indicators - The March Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3%[8] Employment Initiatives - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance announced measures to enhance youth employment, particularly focusing on private enterprises and advanced manufacturing sectors[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on methanol is "strongly bullish" in the short - term, with a trading strategy of "bullish" for single - side trading and "wait - and - see" for arbitrage [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the core investment logic of methanol revolves around geopolitical drivers and a tight supply - demand balance, showing an overall strong trend. Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, driving the resonance of energy and chemical products to strengthen. Coupled with the expected contraction of import supply, it forms the core positive support. The supply - demand side presents a pattern of "tight supply and stable demand". The inventories at ports and inland areas are decreasing simultaneously, and the rigid demand from the olefin sector supports the demand, further strengthening the fundamental support. However, the downstream shows resistance to high prices, and transactions are mainly small - volume, which limits the price increase. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the evolution of the geopolitical situation, the volume of imported arrivals, and the restocking rhythm of the downstream. It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy and be cautious about chasing high prices, while closely monitoring the arbitrage window and inventory change signals [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - This week, the methanol supply side shows a pattern of a marginal increase in domestic production, tight imported supplies at a low level, and continuous inventory reduction in all links. The actual market - circulating supplies are tight, and the support from the supply side to the market is continuously strengthening. Domestically, the scale of restarted methanol plants far exceeds the loss from maintenance during the same period. The operating loads of mainstream production processes such as coal - based and gas - based are steadily rising, and the overall industry capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, with a slight increase in domestic supply. The arbitrage window between the production areas and the coastal areas remains open, the inventory of inland producers is being rapidly reduced, and the volume of pending orders is steadily increasing, with domestic supplies flowing smoothly to the coastal market. In terms of imports, although the volume of arrivals has slightly recovered this period, affected by geopolitical conflicts and limited international shipping capacity, the overall arrival scale remains at a low level. Coupled with the shortage of international supplies, there is a strong expectation of import contraction in the future, making it difficult to effectively supplement the domestic market. The ports continue to experience inventory reduction due to insufficient arrivals, further strengthening the tight supply pattern [2] 3.2 Demand - This week, the methanol demand side shows a pattern of stable rigid demand from the main downstream sectors and significant differentiation among traditional downstream sectors. The overall demand has slightly improved marginally, providing basic support to the market. However, the terminal demand is weak in the high - price environment, and the substantial driving effect is limited. The olefin sector is the core support on the demand side. This week, the restart and capacity increase of methanol - to - olefin plants are progressing simultaneously, the industry's operating level is steadily rising, the demand for externally - purchased methanol is continuously released, and the procurement rhythm is stable, forming a stable consumption of both inland and port supplies, which is the most important supporting force on the methanol demand side. The traditional downstream sectors show overall differentiation. The operating loads of industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and glacial acetic acid have increased, mainly driven by cost factors, but the terminals have low acceptance of high - price raw materials and only maintain rigid procurement, with limited actual transaction volume. The demand in industries such as chloromethane has weakened, the operating load has declined, and the consumption capacity of methanol has also decreased. Overall, the increase in demand is mainly concentrated in the main olefin sector, and the demand from traditional downstream sectors still appears weak [2] 3.3 Inventory - This week, the overall methanol inventory shows a pattern of narrow inventory reduction at the main coastal ports with significant regional differentiation and continuous decline in inland factory inventories. The overall social inventory has decreased steadily, providing bottom - line support to the spot market. At the coastal ports, the total methanol inventory has slightly decreased, and the inventory reduction rhythm is generally slow, with the inventory scale still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history. There are prominent regional differences. The inventory reduction in the South China and Fujian regions is obvious, the inventory in the Jiangsu region remains basically stable, and the inventory in the Zhejiang region has slightly increased due to concentrated arrivals. The available circulating supplies at the ports are generally tight, and the提货 rhythms vary significantly among different regions. In the inland market, the inventory of producers continues to decline, the factory inventories in the main production areas generally decrease, and the volume of pending orders is steadily increasing. The core driving factor is that the arbitrage window between the inland and the coastal areas remains open, the supplies flow smoothly to the coastal market, and coupled with the continuous consumption of rigid demand from the downstream, the inventory pressure in the inland areas is continuously relieved [2] 3.4 Methanol Profit - This week, the profits of methanol and its industrial chain show a pattern of overall strengthening of upstream profitability and widespread pressure and differentiation among downstream sectors. The industry profits are generally concentrated in the upstream methanol production end. In terms of methanol's own profitability, the production - end profits have continued to rise significantly this week, and the profitability of all mainstream production processes has improved significantly. The core driving factor is the significant increase in the spot price of methanol, while the prices of raw materials such as coal and natural gas have fluctuated gently, and the increase in the cost side is far less than the increase in the methanol price. The profitability of coal - based methanol has increased significantly, the profitability of coke - oven gas - based methanol remains leading in the industry, and the natural - gas - based methanol has turned from loss to profit, with the overall production profitability of the industry improving comprehensively. On the downstream profit side, there are prominent differentiation characteristics. The rapid increase in the methanol price has brought heavy cost pressure. The losses of traditional downstream sectors such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have continued to expand, the profit margin of the main downstream MTO industry has significantly narrowed, and only a few varieties such as glacial acetic acid and MTBE have seen a slight increase in profitability. Overall, the cost - passing ability of the downstream to high - price raw materials is weak [2] 3.5 Politics - There are multiple geopolitical events. US President Trump posted on TruthSocial, threatening to destroy and paralyze Iran's power plants if Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. At least one tanker operator has paid about $2 million to Iran for the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian military sources said that if the US carries out its threat of military aggression against Kharg Island, Iran will launch "unexpected" counter - attacks. Israeli media reported that Houthi rebels may join the battle early next week, and Iranian military sources mentioned that deterring other straits including the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea is one of the options for the "Resistance Front" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Core View - Due to the significant escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East are shut down temporarily, leading to a sharp increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, and currently, the pressure on upstream factories is not great. Exports are urgently stopped, and reserve supplies are expected to be put on the market. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate in the range of 1810 - 1940 [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped by 32 yuan to 1841 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1860 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 7002 lots to 268,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 6420 lots to 311,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 808,900 tons, 148,000 tons less than the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 15.5%. The sample inventory at urea ports is 167,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 49.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%, and the operating rate of melamine is 53.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% [1] - India's RCF urea import tender: The latest shipment date is March 31. A total of 20 suppliers participated, with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 US dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 US dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%; the average import price was 2963.69 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%; the average export price was 398.27 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - Oil prices: The Middle East situation has led to significant production cuts in multiple oil - producing countries, and there are reports that the US may send additional ground troops, increasing supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.18 US dollars/barrel to 98.32 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.27%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.54 US dollars/barrel to 112.19 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 3.26%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 27 to 776.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 26.4 to 802.8 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The sharp escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation causes high - level and volatile international crude oil prices. Temporary shutdowns of some urea production facilities in the Middle East lead to a sharp increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about high - priced purchases, and upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports are halted, and reserve supplies are expected to enter the market. Urea prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 1810 - 1940 [1] Trading Strategy - Suggested to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [1]

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 23 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五主力合约期货 BZ2605 价格上涨 217 元至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the significant escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. Some urea production plants in the Middle East have temporarily shut down, causing overseas urea prices to surge. Mid - and downstream buyers are cautious about high - price purchases, while upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports have been urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market. It is predicted that urea prices will oscillate within the range of 1810 - 1940 [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 32 yuan to 1841 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central - China mainstream area decreased by 10 yuan to 1860 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 7002 lots to 268,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 6420 lots to 311,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 808,900 tons, 148,000 tons less than the previous period, a 15.5% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 167,000 tons, a 22,000 - ton month - on - month decrease [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 49.9%, a 4.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 53.3%, a 3.9% month - on - month increase [1] - **India's Tender**: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - **Import and Export in December 2025**: Urea imports in December 2025 were 35.39 tons, an 82.11% month - on - month decrease; the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a 52.11% month - on - month decrease. Urea exports in December 2025 were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a 56.64% month - on - month decrease [1] - **Oil Price**: The Middle East situation has led to significant production cuts in multiple oil - producing countries, and there are reports that the US may send ground troops, increasing supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.18 dollars/barrel to 98.32 dollars/barrel, a 2.27% month - on - month increase; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.54 dollars/barrel to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a 3.26% month - on - month increase. The China INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 27 to 776.4 yuan/barrel and rose 26.4 to 802.8 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The sharp escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation causes international crude oil to fluctuate sharply at a high level. Temporary shutdowns of some urea production plants in the Middle East lead to a sharp rise in overseas urea prices. Mid - and downstream buyers are cautious about high - price purchases, while upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports have been urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, concerns about the unending conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran have pushed up international oil prices, increasing global inflation expectations, boosting the demand for the US dollar, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to surge, leading to a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [3][4]. - The overall performance of different asset classes is as follows: the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; government bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals will rebound in the short - term and short - term cautious observation is recommended; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products will be strong in the short term, and cautious long - position is recommended; precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Financial - Overseas, the market's concerns about the unending conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran have pushed up international oil prices, increasing global inflation expectations, boosting the demand for the US dollar, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to surge, leading to a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as communication services, AI, and software development, the domestic stock market declined significantly. Fundamentally, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment. In terms of operation, short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell overall on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1016.12 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.22%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17139 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.77%. Affected by the sharp rise in international energy prices, the market is worried that inflation will cause global central banks to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, causing precious metals to continue to weaken. Spot gold fell for the eighth consecutive trading day, the longest losing streak since October 2023. The decline intensified during the US session, with an intraday decline of more than $150, hitting a new low in more than a month, and finally closing down 3.45% at $4491.15 per ounce; spot silver fell below the $68 mark, finally closing down 7.04% at $67.79 per ounce. Precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term. In terms of operation, short - term cautious observation is recommended [5]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Friday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and the night session rebounded slightly affected by the rebound in coking coal prices; market transactions continued to be at a low level. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Although steel inventories have peaked and declined, the growth rate of the apparent consumption of the five major varieties has slowed down. In terms of supply, after the important meeting ended, the output of the five major varieties of steel this week increased by 18850 tons month - on - month, and the iron ore output also increased by nearly 6900 tons. Recently, the cost and macro logic of the steel market dominate. It is recommended to continue to treat it with an interval oscillation idea, and pay attention to the risk of a sharp rise and fall [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Friday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of commercial and residential blast furnaces increased by 6900 tons month - on - month, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is still around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. In terms of supply, the global iron ore arrival volume last week continued to decline by 3.8 million tons month - on - month, but the shipping volume increased. In the short term, the iron ore supply is still in the off - season. However, the futures price has reflected the expectation of the recent stage - by - stage dislocation of supply and demand, and the short - term upward space of the iron ore price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp rise and fall [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Friday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded significantly. This rebound is mainly affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the energy substitution logic and will continue in the short term. Fundamentally, the manganese ore spot is still firm. The semi - carbonate quotation at Tianjin Port is 40 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree, the South African high - iron index quotation is 33 - 35 yuan/ton degree, the Gabon quotation is 45 yuan/ton degree and above, the South32 Australian block quotation is 44 yuan/ton degree, and the cml Australian block is 46 yuan/ton degree. In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country, the national capacity utilization rate is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily average output is 27980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. At present, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas of silicon iron is 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is reported at 6100 yuan/ton. Downstream steel mills have begun to implement procurement and tendering plans one after another after the Spring Festival, and the resumption progress of the trader market is also steadily increasing. It is recommended to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with an idea of oscillation and strength [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, China's economic data from January to February was slightly better than expected, especially the growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned positive, but the real estate performance was still weak, and the decline rates of new construction area, construction area, and completion area all expanded, maintaining double - digit negative growth; the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in March kept the interest rate unchanged, and Powell's statement was hawkish, causing the market risk appetite to decline. The dynamic changes in the Federal Reserve's views will be affected by the US employment, inflation, and the Middle East situation. The core contradiction in the fundamentals is still at the mine end. It is a consensus in the market that copper mines are tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high; although the long - term and spot TC remain at a low level, the by - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. Coupled with the abundant supply of blister copper and the increasing import of scrap copper ingots, the growth rate of refined copper output is at a high level. The high copper price restrains downstream purchases, and the domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate. The explicit inventory of the three major exchanges is close to 1.29 million tons, reaching a record high [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Friday, the non - ferrous sector first bottomed out and then rebounded, with a relatively large rebound in the morning of the white session but a decline in the afternoon. From the import data, the domestic primary aluminum import remains at a high level; the scrap aluminum import has decreased slightly, and the overseas scrap aluminum supply is relatively tight. At present, the domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, with a 3% year - on - year increase in output from January to February, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists. Against the background that the demand side cannot bear it, the inventory continues to accumulate and is currently close to 1.36 million tons, reaching a new high in recent years. Overseas, due to the disturbance of the Middle East situation, the supply is tight, and the internal and external price difference is large [10]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc mines are mainly distributed in the south. With the resumption of work and production, the zinc ore processing fee in the southern region has rebounded from 1300 yuan/metal ton to 1500 yuan/metal ton, and the zinc ore processing fee in the northern region remains at 1500 yuan/metal ton. The imported ore TC has dropped from $30/dry ton to $20/dry ton. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product revenue makes up for the loss, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters cut production in 2025, but will resume production in 2026, and the output will increase. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to bring obvious boost to photovoltaic demand and may even decline. After the seasonal inventory accumulation of domestic zinc ingots, it has turned to decline, reaching 229,000 tons, a month - on - month decline of 7200 tons, only slightly lower than in 2022; the LME zinc inventory has increased to nearly 120,000 tons, which has increased significantly compared with the previous period [11]. - **Lead**: The production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The weekly output of primary lead is 56,100 tons, at the highest level in recent years; the growth rate of secondary lead is also at a high level in recent years, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the peak season has passed and it is gradually entering the off - season, and the trade - in policy has overdrawn the later demand. Since 2025, the LME lead inventory has continued to remain at a high level. Since the beginning of the year, the social inventory of primary lead has continued to accumulate, with a relatively high accumulation speed and amplitude. As of March 19, the inventory reached 72,600 tons, a month - on - month decline of 7500 tons, lower than in 2022 but higher than in 2023 - 2025. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same period in recent years, reaching 284,100 tons [12]. - **Nickel**: The mine end is still the current core contradiction point. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement later, but the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a shortage. In addition, the Middle East conflict has led to a shortage of sulfur in Indonesia, affecting the production of MHP. In addition, the previous tailings accident has also led to enterprise production cuts, and there is a risk of a decline in MHP supply. There is still support below the nickel price, but the upward space is limited by the high domestic and foreign inventories [12]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, 13,501 tons of tin ore were imported from Myanmar in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of 175%, and the monthly average level is equivalent to that in November and December last year. As the pumping of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar accelerates, it is expected that the import volume will still have room for further growth; the import volume of tin ore from outside Myanmar is 21,444 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of up to 57%, reflecting that the sources of tin ore imports in China are more diversified; although the operating rate has dropped slightly by 0.42%, it is still at a high level in the same period in recent years; due to the continuous closure of the import window, 3269 tons of tin ingots were imported from January to February, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. On the demand side, the global semiconductor sales in January 2026 increased by 46% year - on - year, and the growth rate further expanded, but the performance of other traditional and emerging industries was poor. The automobile production from January to February decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, the photovoltaic module production decreased by 26% year - on - year, and the household appliance production plan continued to decline. The industry is significantly differentiated, and the semiconductor alone cannot support the overall demand, which is poor. As the tin price has dropped significantly, downstream enterprises have made concentrated purchases at low prices, and the social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 2770 tons to 11,035 tons; the LME inventory has continued to increase, reaching 8920 tons, a month - on - month increase of 145 tons. In summary, it has fallen to the previous important support level and may stabilize and rebound in the short term. Considering that the risk appetite is still weak, be cautious when going long [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The latest weekly output of lithium carbonate is 24,200 tons, a new high, with a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is 98,873 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89 tons. Among them, the inventories of smelters, downstream, and others have increased by 316, 458, and decreased by 860 tons respectively month - on - month. The smelters and downstream have slightly accumulated inventory, and the traders have reduced inventory. The latest warehouse receipt inventory of lithium carbonate is 34,318 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2085 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is low. The old warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled at the end of this month. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both prosperous. The continuous reduction of social inventory of lithium carbonate and the low inventory of smelters continue the strong reality. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to the strengthening of the US dollar, suppressing commodity prices, but the high oil price itself is beneficial to the long - term demand for new energy. It will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Observe cautiously and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance at low prices and the downstream inventory situation [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly output is 78,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3745 tons (+5.0%). The weekly outputs of Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are 280, 3584, 50,988, 8239, and 7140 tons respectively, and the output in Xinjiang has increased slightly. The total number of open furnaces is 209, a week - on - week increase of 1, and the furnace opening rate is 26%. Among them, there is one new open furnace in Xinjiang and one shut - down furnace in Inner Mongolia. The latest social inventory of industrial silicon is 553,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1000 tons, and the social inventory is stable at a high level. The warehouse receipt inventory is 21,668, a week - on - week decrease of 308, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to be low. Under the situation

Industrial Production - Steel production continues to recover, with major varieties showing improved apparent demand[1] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, while some chemical products' operating rates improved month-on-month[1] - The operating rate of polyester in the textile industry increased, and the operating rate of automotive tires continued to recover[1] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a slight recovery compared to earlier months[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 1.50% compared to the previous value[1] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars in March (1-15) were 561,000 units, down 21% year-on-year[1] - Major home appliance retail sales decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, a drop of 19.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index rose by 19%[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with container throughput up by 11.1%[1] - The export container freight index rose by 4.5% month-on-month[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index fell by 0.9%, while the Nanhua Petrochemical Index rose by 3.1%[1] - The price of rebar futures decreased by 0.6%, while the spot price fell by 0.2%[1] - The agricultural product wholesale price index dropped by 0.9%[1]

Market Trends - Recent increase in U.S. Treasury yields due to rising oil prices has pressured liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and the tech sector[1] - The current market adjustment reflects a contraction in risk appetite rather than a deterioration in fundamentals[10] PPI and Earnings Outlook - PPI turning positive is expected to boost A-share earnings, with a projected increase in non-financial net profit growth from 11% under neutral assumptions to 17% under optimistic scenarios for 2026[2] - The contribution of cyclical resources and manufacturing to overall A-share profits is significant, accounting for 45% of non-financial profits over the past five years[2] Index and Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index has retraced approximately 64% from its peak, nearing historical pullback levels seen in previous bull markets[3] - Current valuations remain high, with the Shanghai Composite PE-TTM at 16.6x and the overall A-share market at 22.6x, both around the 75th percentile of the last 20 years[3] Key Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks and oil price trends are critical, with three scenarios outlined: easing, maintaining, and escalating tensions in the Middle East affecting market liquidity and asset prices[4] - Changes in domestic and external demand are crucial, with recent data indicating a shift towards stronger domestic demand, particularly in real estate[4] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus on low-volatility assets, while maintaining a strategic emphasis on cyclical resources throughout the year[9] - Structural opportunities in inflation-benefiting sectors, particularly upstream industries, are highlighted as key areas for investment[4]

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping nearly 2000 points, a decrease of over 3% [2] - The KOSPI index in South Korea fell by 5%, triggering a market circuit breaker that paused trading for 5 minutes [4] Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices fell below $4430 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 3%, while silver prices dropped nearly 1% [5] Economic Insights - Citic Securities noted that key issues regarding the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts will gradually be resolved by April, with the market currently in a narrative-driven phase reflecting liquidity tightening [7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply from 3.97% at the end of February to 4.39%, the highest level since August of the previous year [7] Investment Strategy - The focus should remain on sectors where China has a competitive advantage in pricing power, particularly in new energy, chemicals, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals [8] - The recent liquidity shock has brought valuations of several sectors back to attractive levels, similar to the post-April 7, 2022, scenario for overseas products [8] - Key areas for investment include low-valuation factors, particularly in insurance, brokerage, and electric power sectors, with price increases expected to be a significant theme in 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Views - International oil prices have risen, impacting the prices of methanol and methionine due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts affecting oil and some petrochemical product supplies and transportation [1] - The current P/E ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 28.03, at the 81.52 percentile historically, while the P/B ratio is 2.53, at the 70.98 percentile historically [1] - The report anticipates that the current round of industry expansion is nearing its end, with measures like "anti-involution" expected to catalyze a recovery in industry profits [1] - The new materials sector is expected to benefit from rapid downstream demand growth, potentially initiating a new phase of high growth [1] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of March 22, 2026, the SW petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 16.74, at the 50.60 percentile historically, and the P/B ratio is 1.62, at the 55.15 percentile historically [1] - The report highlights the need to focus on large energy state-owned enterprises, leading companies in coal chemical with stable and relatively low-cost raw material supply, and leading fine chemical companies with favorable supply-demand dynamics [1] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on large energy state-owned enterprises, coal chemical leaders, and fine chemical leaders with good cost transmission [1] - Long-term investment themes include traditional chemical leaders showing resilience, continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics in sub-sectors like refining, polyester, dyes, organic silicon, pesticides, refrigerants, and phosphorous chemicals [1] - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and others [1] Price Trends - For the week of March 16-22, 2026, 60 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, with notable rises in vitamin A, ethylene, naphtha, TDI, and methionine [28] - Methanol prices increased to 2,432 RMB/ton, up 7.04% week-on-week and 27.93% month-on-month [30] - Methionine prices rose to 39.5 RMB/kg, up 25.4% week-on-week and 111.23% month-on-month [31]