本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 309.61 -0.20 309.21 0.40 324.13 -14.52 高炉产能利用率（%） 87.45 1.04 85.47 1.98 85.76 1.69 表观需求量 291.31 44.58 311.41 -20.10 298.42 -7.11 热轧卷板周度数据（20260227） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 厂内库存 94.78 1.40 77.25 17.53 96.95 -2.17 社会库存 357.37 16.90 278.33 79.04 317.37 40.00 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 热轧卷板周产量（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 70 75 80 85 90 95 高炉产能利用率（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 250 270 290 310 330 350 热轧卷板表观需求量（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 冷轧卷板周产量 ...

2026年02月27日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：昨日贵金属继续震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 | | | | | | 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价的国 | | | 5184 | | | | | | | | | 0.38%至 | | 金 | 际银价跌 美元/盎司。 | 1.01%至 | 88.272 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 属 | 基本面：英伟达年报业绩未能缓解市场担忧，股票大跌 | | | | 5%，拖累纳斯达克表现，不过 | | | | | | | | 年报显示业绩良 | | | DELL | | | | | | 好，盘后大涨；美联储理事米兰周四重申，尽管劳动力市场改善，仍预计 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/27 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/02/12 | 2190 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/13 | 2190 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/24 | 2191 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/25 | 2191 | 2265 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/26 | 2192 | 2265 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 环比 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...

作为洪楼城市更新项目的焦点地块，大润发地块正在全力推进建设洪楼1905高端购物中心项目。王 禄仁表示，假期项目完成了250吨钢筋绑扎，约5000平方米模板支设，约120立方米混凝土浇筑，以实打 实的施工成效，确保项目建设节奏不放缓。目前，该项目负二层整体完成45%，其中春节期间施工进度 增加约10%，负一层整体完成20%，首段已完成正负零浇筑。项目计划于6月30日完成主体验收，2026 年底具备竣工验收条件。 与大润发地块同频推进的，还有全福河东北地块。"该地块于2月15日至2月23日平均每日约240名工 人施工。"王禄仁介绍，剩余工人将陆续到岗，预计2月27日达到350人满员状态。该地块目前负三层施 工已全部完成，其中春节期间施工进度增加约20%，负二层整体完成70%，春节期间施工进度增加约 20%，负一层整体完成30%。项目裙楼及地下车库部分计划于3月底前完成主体结构±0，4月底完成主体 验收，6月底具备竣工验收条件。 在济南机场二期改扩建工程现场，春节期间T2航站楼、综合交通中心、6号下穿通道等项目核心区 域施工不停歇、关键工序持续推进。2月24日上午，5000余名建设者返岗就位，实现全面复工复产。 春 ...

投资咨询系列报告 更新时间：2026年02月27日08时19分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 消息面上，上海发布楼市"沪七条"，进一步调减住房限购政策，购房门槛进一步降低；其次，华北部分钢企已接到2026年全国两会期间临时自主减 排通知，要求企业在3月4日—3月11日执行阶段性减排管控，高炉负荷按不低于30%比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况， 制定专项减排执行方案，按要求上报备案。在消息面利多提振下，黑色系商品大幅反弹。供需方面，春节前 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量大幅下降，表 观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求处于一年中的低位。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于节日 模式，供需双弱，预计要到元宵节之后才会启动，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速增加，市场对 2026 年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面 看，期价出现大幅反弹，但是否能构成反转，仍有待观望。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

看发展质效，高新技术产业产值占比达到55.7%，5年提升10.6个百分点；数字经济占GDP比重突破 50%、5年提升9个百分点，国家级数字领航企业18家、居全国首位。 "十五五"开局之年，工业经济如何干出气势、跑出速度？ 2月26日召开的全省工业经济高质量发展推进会议给出了方向和路径：稳增长与提质效协同发力， 持续做强工业经济"头号工程"。 稳住是根基，提质是关键。做强"头号工程"，守的是基本盘、谋的是高质量、抓的是新突破，最终 都要落在稳增长、提质效这"两个发力"上。 （一） 大抓工业，是山东树立起的鲜明导向。 作为全国重要的工业基地，山东拥有41个工业大类、197个工业中类和603个工业小类，是工业门类 最为齐全的省份之一。近年来，山东通过深入实施工业经济"头号工程"，推动工业经济实现量质齐升。 看规模体量，2025年规上工业增加值增长7.6%、高于全国1.7个百分点；"十四五"期间年均增速 7.5%、高于全国1.6个百分点，对经济增长发挥了稳定器、动力源作用。 唯有守住稳增长底线，才能为提质效创造条件，实现工业经济行稳致远。 （三） 看产业生态，19条标志性产业链汇集九成以上规上工业企业，工业总产值过百 ...

5万余名职工、业务横跨钢铁、电力能源、煤化工等多个板块，覆盖采矿、生产、物流、服务等多个复 杂场景——这是国家首批规划建设的第四家钢铁联合企业酒钢集团的规模体量。对于这样一家地域分布 广、岗位类型多、管理需求精的大型企业而言，如何让门禁、考勤、消费等基础场景实现智能化管理？ 正元智慧（300645.SZ）给出了答案：十余年深耕，从一卡通到智慧管理，以数字化底座夯实企业运营 根基。 2013年，正元智慧首次与酒钢集团携手，启动企业一卡通建设，核心功能包括消费与考勤。彼时正元智 慧已在校园一卡通领域积累丰富实践经验，酒钢一卡通项目的成功落地，成为公司智慧化建设经验跨界 应用的重要实践。2018年，虚拟智能卡上线，一卡通功能同步拓展至移动端。此后，一卡通历经多轮迭 代，功能与应用场景持续丰富，截至2025年已全面涵盖消费、考勤、门禁、统一身份认证等多元场景， 支持卡、码、脸多介质识别。 十余载深耕，正元智慧与酒钢集团同频共振，以技术革新回应企业各阶段的管理需求，这个过程中，也 让人们看到了一卡通作为企业智慧管理基础载体的能量与价值。 针对酒钢集团人员规模庞大、工时制度多样、员工班次多、排班规律复杂的综合管理需求，正 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-27 现实⽭盾仍存，盘⾯⽀撑有限 节后钢材供需双弱，库存仍在累积，基本⾯缺乏亮点，且市场对旺季 需求预期⼀般，同时铁矿⽯库存压⼒仍存，春节后煤矿复产速度将加 快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压⼒仍存，相关品种价格表现 承压。受南⾮锰矿消息扰动影响，合⾦盘⾯表现强势，但盘⾯涨⾄⾼ 位将⾯临明显的卖保压⼒。 节后钢材供需双弱，库存仍在累积，基本面缺乏亮点，且市场对旺季 需求预期一般，同时铁矿石库存压力仍存，春节后煤矿复产速度将加 快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压力仍存，相关品种价格表现 承压。受南非锰矿消息扰动影响，合金盘面表现强势，但盘面涨至高 位将面临明显的卖保压力。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当前市场对节后 需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，节后即将召开两 会，宏观预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢供需双弱，基本面驱动 有限，价格波动不大。 2. 碳元素方面：节后焦炭供需均有继续增长预期，随着物流运输的 逐渐恢复，焦企累库情况将得到缓解，焦炭供需结构将继续保持健 康，现货预计暂 ...

中国人习惯把春节当作新旧交替的分水岭。马年春节假期，中原大地就鼓足了拼搏奋进的劲头，2月24 日，河南纵深推进融入服务全国统一大市场大会召开。截至2月25日，洛阳、南阳、许昌等9个省辖市召 开市级"新春第一会"。一场场高规格会议密集召开，如战鼓擂响，催人奋进。 为什么"新春第一会"如此重要？ （一） 中原大地素有抢抓先机的传统。隋唐大运河上南来北往的商船，见证着洛阳在那时的枢纽地位；《清明 上河图》里熙熙攘攘的市井，记录着开封作为繁华都会的开放气度；安阳殷墟的甲骨文里，刻着"商"字 ——三个三角形顶承而同立，恰如买方、卖方、市场三方合力，才能把商事办成办好……这片土地从不 缺少实干传统，如今，各地的"新春第一会"，正是对这种精神的传承与表达。 一季度是全年经济的风向标。有专家指出，各地在节后迅速开会、调研，就是为了确保全年经济工作开 好局、起好步。比如，鹤壁明确要求，农历正月十五前，90%以上在建项目须全面复工，100个重点项 目在一季度完成年度投资计划的30%以上；春节期间，南阳112个项目不停工、不停产，目前已完成投 资52.1亿元。这种"早"字当头的作风，本身就是一种态度、一种担当。 从全局看，今年是" ...