黑色建材日报 | 2026-03-24 市场情绪扰动，玻碱盘面走强 钢材：市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3154元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3330元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢银数据显示，全国建材 库存644.61万吨，环比增加0.04%；热卷库存322.25万吨，环比减少2.80%。 供需与逻辑：目前建材供需季节性改善，库存由增转降；板材产销大幅改善，库存环比去化，但是依旧处于同期 高位，压制价格高度，当前钢材价格波动主要取决于原料价格，同时考虑到能源价格抬升，钢厂成本支撑较强。 策略 能源价格、成材需求情况、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：海运费价格上涨，铁矿震荡上行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡上行，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价 多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交69.7万吨，环比上涨43.56%。 供需与逻辑：供应方面，本期全球发运总量周环比上涨3.1%，其中澳洲发运有所上升，巴西发运稍稍下降，非主 流国家发运基本持平，供给压力仍存。需求方面，钢厂补库，日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Steel: There is a stage of strong supply and demand. Spot and futures prices have rebounded, and the market sentiment is fair. Iron - water production has recovered weekly, and the apparent demand of each variety has also increased slightly. The inventory of steel products has started to decline. It is recommended to participate in the pulse - rebound band unilaterally, and pay attention to the opportunity of long - basis trading for hot - rolled coils [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: The market is in a range - bound state. Although the geopolitical conflict mainly affects the sentiment, the rising coal price may support the cost. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and the supply pressure is emerging. The futures market is strong due to sentiment, but the spot market lags behind, and the basis is weakening [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot prices of coking coal have risen across the board, and coke enterprises have proposed the first price increase. The futures market has started to make up for the increase. There is room for coking coal to rise further under the high - oil - price premise, but the development of the war is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the Strait resumes navigation [5]. - Iron Ore: The price is in a high - level range - bound state. It is difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, and it is also difficult to break through upwards due to high port inventory and oversupply. It is not recommended to chase long or short, and it is advisable to operate according to the range - bound strategy [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price and Market Situation: On March 23, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various steel products and their changes are shown in the table. The spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou threaded steel, as well as other related products, also have corresponding changes [1]. - Supply and Demand: Iron - water production has recovered after the end of the previous production restriction, and the apparent demand of each variety has increased slightly. The industry has entered a stage of strong supply and demand. The apparent demand of plate products has reached the seasonal peak range, while that of building materials still has room to rise, with the peak expected in April. The inventory of steel products has started to decline, with the main pressure on hot - rolled coils [2]. - Investment Suggestion: Unilaterally, it is recommended to wait and see or choose the opportunity to participate in short - term long positions. When the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel reaches over 175, take profit. Gradually intervene in the opportunity of long - basis trading for hot - rolled coils [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Cost and Market: The cost of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is affected by coal prices and power costs. Due to the typhoon in Australia, the shipment of some manganese ores is blocked, which supports the cost of manganese silicon. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and the supply pressure is emerging. The futures market is strong due to sentiment, but the spot market lags behind, and the basis is weakening [3]. - Investment Suggestion: Temporarily wait and see [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Price and Market Situation: The spot prices of coking coal have risen across the board, and coke enterprises have proposed the first price increase. The futures market has started to make up for the increase, and the current futures price has priced in three rounds of price increases, corresponding to a cost increase of over 70. The funds have significantly increased their positions in coking coal on Monday [5]. - Investment Suggestion: Unilaterally, temporarily wait and see. The long - basis trading positions can enter the market [6]. Iron Ore - Price and Market Situation: The price of iron ore is in a high - level range - bound state. It is difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, and it is also difficult to break through upwards due to high port inventory and oversupply. The spot price is currently at a weak low level [6]. - Investment Suggestion: Wait and see [6].

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 72.85%, up by 0.44% from the previous week[8] - The blast furnace operating rate rose to 79.8%, an increase of 1.44%[8] - The PTA operating rate improved to 79.9%, reflecting a 3.11% increase[8] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped significantly to ¥37,200,000, a decrease of ¥45,400,000 from the previous week[8] - Daily average retail sales of passenger cars fell to 73,734.15 units, down by 2,636.4 units[8] - Daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars decreased to 93,252.05 units, a decline of 3,741.45 units[8] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 186.28 million square meters, up by 21.57%[8] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in major cities rose to 251,216.94 square meters, an increase of 30,447.24 square meters[8] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities dropped to 0.21%, down by 2.17%[8] Trade and Transportation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased to 1,706.95, down by 3.40%[9] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased to 2,056.00, reflecting a rise of 28.00[9] - The average daily passenger volume for subways in major cities showed a decline, with Beijing down by 131.71 thousand passengers[9] Price Inflation - The wholesale price index for agricultural products fell to 121.97, a decrease of 0.93%[9] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to ¥15.98 per kilogram, down by ¥0.19[9] - The average wholesale price of vegetables dropped to ¥4.86 per kilogram, a decline of ¥0.08[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.64 CNY based on a PE ratio of 14X for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a continuous growth in high-end product varieties, with a significant increase in demand for special steel products, particularly in the energy sector [9]. - The company achieved a net profit of 5.93 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.67%, despite a challenging steel market environment [9]. - The company is actively pursuing a global expansion strategy, having exported 2.3 million tons of steel in 2025, which is a 4.6% increase from the previous year [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are as follows: 104.46 billion CNY in 2026, 104.09 billion CNY in 2027, and 104.24 billion CNY in 2028, with a slight decline in growth rates [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.2% in 2026 to 16.2% in 2028, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 6.35 billion CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 7.2% [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned well within the steel industry, focusing on high-end products that cater to growing sectors such as renewable energy and automotive [9]. - The company’s strategic acquisitions and global trade initiatives are expected to bolster its market presence and profitability in the coming years [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 17.64 CNY based on a PE ratio of 14X for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a continuous growth in high-end product varieties, with a significant increase in sales of high-grade products, particularly in the energy sector, which is expected to drive future profitability [9]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, achieving a steel export of 2.3029 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and is actively pursuing an international strategy to enhance profitability [9]. - The company has achieved a record high gross margin of 14.94% in 2025, reflecting its ability to maintain pricing power despite a decline in steel prices [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are as follows: 104.461 billion CNY in 2026, 104.093 billion CNY in 2027, and 104.235 billion CNY in 2028, with a slight decline in growth rates [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 6.355 billion CNY in 2026, 6.654 billion CNY in 2027, and 7.229 billion CNY in 2028, indicating a steady growth trajectory [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.26 CNY in 2026, 1.32 CNY in 2027, and 1.43 CNY in 2028, reflecting an upward trend in profitability [4].

李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 2026 年 3 月 24 日 螺纹钢：原料板块情绪高涨，震荡偏强 热轧卷板：原料板块情绪高涨，震荡偏强 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅（%） | | | RB2605 | 3,154 | 28 | 0.90 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,330 | 32 | 0.97 | | | | 昨日成交（手） | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动（手） | | | RB2605 | 1,011,355 | 1,351,388 | -35,832 | | | HC2605 | 472,394 | 1,055,371 | -42,832 | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | 上海 杭州 | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President signaled short - term easing, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. International energy prices dropped sharply, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields declined. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better - than - expected from January to February, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The market trading logic is mainly focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index may be volatile and weak, but it may pick up after the US President's easing signal. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment [3][4]. - For different asset classes: short - term stock index is volatile and weak, with intensified fluctuations, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; government bonds are short - term volatile, and cautious observation is needed; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term volatile and rebounding, and short - term cautious observation is required; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and weak, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products are short - term highly volatile, and cautious long - positions are advised; precious metals are short - term highly volatile and generally weak, and cautious observation is needed [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's statement about postponing the attack on Iran's energy infrastructure (though Iran denied it) led to a short - term easing of the situation, a sharp drop in international energy prices, and a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Domestically, the economy and inflation from January to February were better than expected. The goals and policy intensity in the 2026 government work report are lower than in 2025. The stock index may be volatile and weak in the short term but may improve after the US President's easing signal. Attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as precious metals, hotels and tourism, and components, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The economy and inflation from January to February were better than expected. The market trading logic is focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. The stock index is short - term volatile and weak, but may pick up after the US President's easing signal. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market had a significant gap - up on Monday night. The Shanghai gold main contract closed at 980 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; the Shanghai silver main contract closed at 17,246 yuan/kilogram, up 3.47%. Spot gold and silver fluctuated greatly. Short - term precious metals are highly volatile and have rebounded. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. The price rebound was driven by strong coking coal, but the industry fundamentals are still weak. Steel inventory has peaked and declined, and the growth of apparent consumption of five major varieties has slowed. After the important meeting, the output of five major varieties of steel and hot metal increased last week. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost drops [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly on Monday, boosted by the strong crude oil price. In terms of fundamentals, the daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces increased, and the profitability of steel mills remained around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. The shipment and arrival volume of iron ore will increase this week, and the problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch is gradually being alleviated. It is expected that the room for further price increase of iron ore is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the energy price weakens [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The rebound was affected by the rising crude oil price and the energy substitution logic and will continue in the short term. The manganese ore spot price is still firm. The capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The northern production is relatively stable, and the profit margin is acceptable. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices can be considered from a volatile and upward perspective [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The spot TC has dropped below - 60 US dollars/ton, a new low. By - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, and the copper mine is generally considered to be tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The inventory at home and abroad has continued to accumulate, reaching a record high. The copper price has dropped sharply, and downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventory. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [9]. - **Aluminum**: The market trading logic on Monday continued from last week, trading on the logic that high oil prices lead to an increase in inflation expectations and a delay in interest rate cuts. The precious metals continued to fall sharply, and the non - ferrous metal sector was searching for a bottom. The domestic primary aluminum output increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum imports remain high, and the waste aluminum imports have decreased slightly. The domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists [9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fees in the southern and northern regions of China have changed. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and by - product revenues make up for losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters reduced production in 2025 but will resume production in 2026. The demand is not optimistic, and the zinc ingot inventory has decreased after seasonal accumulation. The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly [11]. - **Lead**: The production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The supply pressure still exists. The demand peak season has passed and is gradually entering the off - season. The LME lead inventory has remained at a high level since 2025, and the domestic primary lead social inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same period in recent years [12]. - **Nickel**: The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly, and although there is room for improvement later, the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. In the first quarter, the mining enterprises will maintain normal production. Due to the Middle East conflict and previous tailings accidents, the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad [12]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar in the first two months increased significantly, and the import from other sources also increased rapidly. The opening rate is still at a high level in the same period in recent years. The tin ingot import has decreased. The demand is uneven, with the semiconductor industry growing rapidly but other industries performing poorly. The downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a decline in social tin ingot inventory, while the LME inventory has increased. The tin price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, but caution is needed when going long [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has reached a new high, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously being depleted. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a stronger US dollar, suppressing commodity prices, but high oil prices are beneficial to the long - term demand for new energy. The price rebounded at the end of yesterday, but the rumored shutdown of a lithium mine in Zimbabwe needs to be verified, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. It is expected to oscillate at the support level in the short term [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the number of open furnaces has increased slightly. The social inventory is at a high level and stable, and the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. Affected by coking coal, it is expected to be strongly volatile [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly inventory has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt has decreased. In the long - term, the policy - oriented market clearance is negative. The price is currently in the full - cost range of the industry. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of the photovoltaic industry after April. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US postponed the attack on Iran's power facilities, and Trump said that his team had started discussions on ending the conflict. Although Iran denied it, the oil price dropped by more than 14%. The potential negotiation situation is still unclear, but the short - term upside space of the oil price will be limited. However, the US military's attacks on Iran's power - related facilities and the deployment of the Marine Corps still attract market attention. The oil price will continue to be strongly volatile in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price dropped sharply, and asphalt followed. The terminal demand showed some negative feedback, but the total inventory remained low, and the inventory accumulation pressure was limited, giving some upward expectations to asphalt. Recently, refineries have预防性 reduced their production, and the supply will continue to be at a low level. The short - term absolute price will continue to fluctuate greatly following the crude oil. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the Iran situation [16]. - **PX**: The oil price dropped sharply, and PX followed the energy and chemical sector. The price difference between PX and naphtha was suppressed. The downstream start - up recovery is slow, and the willingness to purchase raw materials after the previous emotional stockpiling has decreased. PX is affected by negative feedback. If the oil price strengthens later, there is still some upward space under the cost - driven logic [16]. - **PTA**: The energy and chemical sector followed the crude oil to drop sharply. PTA has seen obvious capital inflows recently, and the decline is about 4%. The downstream manufacturers' willingness to stockpile has decreased significantly, leading to negative feedback and suppressing the PTA price. The basis has decreased significantly, and the production - sales ratio has also decreased. The processing fee has continued to decrease. If the oil price remains strongly volatile, the PTA price will temporarily remain in a range [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the polyester sector followed the crude oil price to drop sharply, ethylene glycol gave back a lot of its gains. However, the overall overseas supply shortage is difficult to change. The export expectation of ethylene glycol has increased significantly, and the port inventory has started to be depleted. The basis of ethylene glycol has strengthened slightly, and there is still upward momentum after breaking through the previous high [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The polyester sector has declined significantly. The production - sales ratio remains at a low level, and the terminal start - up is significantly lower than in previous years, suppressing the upside space of short - fiber. The price negative feedback continues to be transmitted, and the inventory has increased again after the previous de - stocking. The manufacturers' willingness to stockpile has decreased. It will continue to be strongly volatile following PTA and other varieties in the short term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract closed at 1164.50, up 3.25 or 0.28% (settlement price 1163.50). The stability of Sino - US soybean trade relations has been disturbed by the news of Trump's postponed visit to China. During the South American soybean harvest season, the export and sales data of high - priced US soybeans have deteriorated, dragging down the CBOT soybean price. The US biodiesel policy will be finalized soon, and the trading sentiment of US soybean oil driven by crude oil is cautious, with increased uncertainty and more fund - holding for observation [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans at oil mills has decreased seasonally, and there is no news of reserve auctions. The current operation level remains medium, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories are being depleted rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis to be stable and strong. Although the cost support has weakened with the adjustment of US soybeans, the risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and with the increase in rapeseed imports, the supply concern has subsided. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has widened slightly, but it is still low, and the substitution consumption space of rapeseed meal is limited. It will mainly fluctuate with soybean meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is being depleted rapidly, supporting the basis to be stable, and there is a possibility of further pricing the risk of short - term shortage of imported soybeans. The rapeseed oil supply pressure may gradually appear with the increase in Canadian rapeseed arrivals, and it basically fluctuates in line with soybean and palm oil [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The international crude oil is oscillating at a high level, but during the important observation window of the Middle East situation, the trading sentiment of crude oil is cautious, and the support of vegetable oils from crude oil risks has weakened. Internationally, the export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, the production has decreased, and the inventory may continue to decline. Domestically, the palm oil inventory has decreased [21][22]. - **Corn**: The national corn price has fluctuated. The futures price is running strongly, driving up the purchase price at the northern port. The sales progress of corn in the main producing areas has slowed down, and the storage cost of traders is high, so there is still a sentiment of supporting the price. The port and deep - processing inventories are low, supporting the price to be stable. The downstream feed enterprises are using more imported grains and policy - auctioned grains, and their acceptance of high - priced corn has decreased. The news of brown rice auctions in early April has not been confirmed, which may have a negative impact on the corn price [22]. - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the painful period of accelerated adjustment. The demand has improved marginally but is still in the off - season. The losses of farmers have increased, and the expectation of production capacity reduction has increased. The pig weight is increasing, and the second - fattening and frozen - product storage have increased. Retail farmers are reluctant to sell, but the group - farm sales have increased significantly. It is expected that the short - term spot and futures prices may continue to fall, and there are still risks in the futures market [22].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran conflict. Uncertainty in the negotiation between the US and Iran has led to large fluctuations in the prices of various commodities, including oil, precious metals, and industrial raw materials [22][69][118]. - Different sectors show different trends. For example, the financial derivatives market is expected to have technical rebounds in the stock index futures but with unclear directions due to the unstable Middle - East situation; the bond market is likely to be in a narrow - range fluctuation [22][25]. In the agricultural products market, factors such as supply, demand, and external market conditions lead to different price trends for each variety [28][29][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The stock index tumbled on Monday, with all major indices and futures contracts experiencing significant declines, and the trading volume and open interest increased. The main reason for the decline is the impact of the escalating Middle - East situation on market sentiment [21]. - **Investment Logic**: After continuous sharp drops, a technical rebound may occur, but the Middle - East situation remains unclear, and the risk preference is decreasing. The market direction after the shock is still uncertain [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a grid operation in the shock consolidation; conduct the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF; and wait and see for options [23]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures closed down on Monday, with the yields of most active bonds in the inter - bank market rising, and the market capital tightened. The long - end spread narrowed slightly [24]. - **Investment Logic**: The bond market is short of substantial positive drivers for upward movement. However, factors such as the narrow - range fluctuation of capital prices, the general profit - making effect in the equity market, and relatively weak domestic demand support the bond market to some extent [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; consider lightly shorting the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) for arbitrage [26]. 3.2 Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean index rose, while the CBOT soybean meal index fell. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased [28][29]. - **Investment Logic**: Market disturbances have increased, and the market is in a wide - range shock. The fundamentals of US soybeans are under pressure, and rapeseed meal generally follows the trend of soybean meal [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [29]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The international sugar price declined slightly, and the domestic sugar price fluctuated. The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have completed the crushing process has increased, and the spot price in the main production areas has remained stable [30][32][33]. - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the expected increase in sugar production in India and Thailand may be lower than expected, which supports the international sugar price. Domestically, the supply pressure is relatively high, but considering the price difference between the domestic and international markets, the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international trend slightly [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou sugar is recommended to buy low and sell high; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [35]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybean oil price changed slightly, and the Malaysian market was closed for a holiday. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased, and the soybean arrival concern has alleviated [37]. - **Investment Logic**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the oil price dropped sharply and then rebounded, and the oil market followed the trend. The inventory of domestic oils is at a moderately high level [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the oil may fluctuate at a high level in the short term; consider the reverse arbitrage opportunity for p59; wait and see for options [38]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The CBOT corn futures price declined. The domestic wheat price rose slightly, and the export of corn starch increased. The corn inventory in the northern ports increased [39][40][41]. - **Investment Logic**: The US corn price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The demand for deep - processing of corn has increased, and the port price is stable. The 05 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider a long - position idea for the 05 corn contract on the callback; for the 05 corn - starch spread, consider narrowing the spread when it is high; wait and see for options [41]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The live pig price has declined overall, and the prices of piglets and sows have also decreased [42]. - **Investment Logic**: The relatively strong feed price has affected the breeding profit, and there is still pressure on live pig sales due to the large inventory [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the wide - straddle strategy for options [43]. Peanuts - **Market Performance**: The average price of peanut kernels has decreased slightly, the price of peanut oil has been stable, and the price of peanut meal has been stable. The inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in sample enterprises has increased [45][46]. - **Investment Logic**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 05 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The current price is at a high level, and the market is in a state of contango [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - term long positions when the 05 peanut contract is in a narrow - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [47]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The main egg price has remained stable, the inventory of laying hens has increased, and the sales volume of eggs has increased [48][49]. - **Investment Logic**: The previous good profit has reduced the enthusiasm for culling hens, and the future supply may be under pressure. Consider short - selling the June contract [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the June contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The inventory of apples in cold storage has decreased rapidly, and the price in the origin has remained stable [51]. - **Investment Logic**: Although the fundamentals of apples are strong, the upward momentum of the May contract is limited. The market may focus on the production of new - season apples in the future, and there is a risk of frost damage [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, exit and wait and see for the May contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: The outer - market cotton price has declined. The drought in the US cotton - producing areas is still at a relatively high level, and the price of Pakistani yarn has increased [54][55]. - **Investment Logic**: The increase in the import quota is expected to have a positive impact on the US cotton price and narrow the price difference between the domestic and international markets. The domestic cotton price is expected to follow the upward trend of the US cotton price, but the decline space is limited [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider building long positions at low prices for Zhengzhou cotton; wait and see for arbitrage and options [56]. 3.3 Black Metals Steel Products - **Market Performance**: The downstream construction restart progress is slightly slower than last year, and the inventory of Shanghai construction steel is expected to start to decline in early April [58]. - **Investment Logic**: The black - metal sector declined at night due to the fall in the international oil price. The supply of steel products has increased, the demand has improved, but the overall inventory is still high. The steel price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the steel price is expected to remain volatile without a clear trend; for arbitrage, consider shorting the coil - coal ratio; wait and see for options [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The imported Mongolian coking coal market is strong, and the first - round price increase of coke has started [60]. - **Investment Logic**: The coking coal price followed the oil price decline at night. The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, and the fluctuation is large. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The global iron - ore shipment volume has increased, and the port trading volume has increased [63]. - **Investment Logic**: The iron - ore price has risen to a high level, and the market game has intensified. Although the supply is still at a high level, there are multiple supply disturbances. It is recommended that spot enterprises hedge at high prices [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hedge at high prices for spot; for arbitrage, enter the reverse arbitrage for the 5/9 spread; wait and see for options [64]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have risen, and the supply and demand of steel products have improved [65][66]. - **Investment Logic**: Driven by energy costs, the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: The gold and silver markets fluctuated widely, with gold prices falling and silver prices rising [68]. - **Investment Logic**: Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the Fed's attitude towards interest rates, the gold and silver prices are under pressure. In the short term, they are expected to face "headwinds" [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider short - term short - selling; wait and see for arbitrage and options [70][71]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market Performance**: The platinum and palladium markets fluctuated weakly and then rebounded [72]. - **Investment Logic**: The market is affected by the energy price, and the uncertainty is high. The platinum market is in a tight - balance state, and the palladium market is in a surplus state [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; wait for the opportunity to go long on the platinum - palladium spread at a low level; wait and see for options [73]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The copper futures price has risen, and the LME inventory has increased [75]. - **Investment Logic**: The US - Iran negotiation situation is uncertain. The copper supply is tight, and the copper price is expected to be affected by the negotiation situation [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level; wait and see for arbitrage and options [76]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina futures price has declined, and the spot price has risen slightly [77]. - **Investment Logic**: Guinea's bauxite export policy is uncertain. The new domestic alumina production capacity needs time to be released stably, and the alumina price is expected to fluctuate weakly [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum futures price has risen, and the spot price has declined [80]. - **Investment Logic**: The Middle - East situation is uncertain, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The local aluminum production capacity has reduced production preventively [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: No significant market performance information is provided in the report. - **Investment Logic**: The Middle - East situation is uncertain, and the financial attribute has a significant impact on the price. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum price; wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The zinc futures price has risen, and the spot price has been stable. The domestic inventory has decreased [87]. - **Investment Logic**: The zinc price is affected by macro and capital emotions. Although the domestic inventory is high, the consumption shows signs of recovery, and the overseas supply may be reduced [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level; wait and see for arbitrage and options [88]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The lead futures price has risen, and the spot price has been stable. The domestic inventory has decreased [89][90]. - **Investment Logic**: The lead price has been under pressure due to macro and fundamental factors, but there is support at the bottom due to the upcoming peak season [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level; wait and see for arbitrage and options [90]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The nickel futures price has risen, and the LME inventory has decreased [91]. - **Investment Logic**: The nickel price is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. The supply and demand in March have narrowed, and the inventory has decreased. It is necessary to wait for the trading logic to switch [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [91]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: No significant market performance information is provided in the report. - **Investment Logic**: The stainless - steel price is expected to follow the nickel price, and the short - term macro impact is large [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading and arbitrage [93]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate within a range [95]. - **Investment Logic**: The demand for industrial silicon from the silicone industry is expected to decrease, and the polysilicon production may increase in April. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider buying at the lower end of the range; no specific strategy for arbitrage and options [97]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon price is expected to be weak in the short term [98]. - **Investment Logic**: The polysilicon production has increased in March, and the demand in April is expected to weaken. It is necessary to pay attention to policy guidance [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to be weak; no specific strategy for arbitrage and options [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: No significant market performance information is provided in the report. - **Investment Logic**: The domestic supply and demand in March have loosened, and the price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Tin - **Market Performance**: The tin futures price has risen, and the LME inventory has decreased [103]. - **Investment Logic**: The tin price is affected by the macro - sentiment and the supply and demand situation. It is necessary to pay attention to the negative impact of the helium blockade on tin consumption [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate widely; wait and see for arbitrage and options [105]. 3.5 Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The spot freight rate index has risen, and the market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation rumor [107]. - **Investment Logic**: The US - Iran negotiation rumor has disrupted the market expectation, and the oil price has fallen significantly. The shipping market is in the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation situation and fuel cost changes [108][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading and arbitrage [110]. Dry Bulk Freight - **Market Performance**: The spot freight rate index has shown different trends, with different ship - type sectors showing obvious differentiation [110]. - **Investment Logic**: The Middle - East situation has disrupted global shipments, and the high fuel price has put pressure on shipowners. Different ship - type markets are affected by different factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to the long - term impact of the conflict on the dry - bulk shipping chain [111][112]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report.

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of Guoxin Guozheng Futures on March 24, 2026, covering multiple futures varieties [1] Index Futures - On March 23, the three major A - share indexes weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.63% to 3813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to 13345.51 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.49% to 3235.22 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 23, closing at 4418.00, a decrease of 149.02 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 23, the weighted index of coke oscillated stronger, closing at 1867.8, a rise of 117.3 compared to the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 23, closing at 1323.6 yuan, a rise of 122.3 compared to the previous day [3] - Coke: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing willingness of traders slightly improves [4] - Coking coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1461 vehicles. The resumption of work in coal mines is good, the weekly production level continues to rise slightly, the spot auction transactions within the week are good, and the transaction price has increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the inventory at the production end has decreased slightly [4] - Policy: According to the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline, by 2030, China's comprehensive energy production capacity will reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal. Coal will play a long - term role in ensuring energy security and economic stability [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. Affected by the rise of US sugar on Friday and the increase in spot quotes in the morning, the futures price oscillated higher, and then oscillated lower due to the sharp decline in the stock market. At night, it oscillated lower due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [5] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premixed powder were 830,000 tons and 592,000 tons respectively, an increase of 75,000 tons and 266,000 tons year - on - year. The total import volume was 1.422 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons or 31% year - on - year [7] Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, the Shanghai Rubber oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. At night, it oscillated and rose slightly due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [7] - In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased 1.2% year - on - year to 14.03 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the import of truck and bus tires decreased 4.1% year - on - year and 3.4% month - on - month to 4.72 million [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on March 23, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1164.5 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.34%. As of the week of March 19, the US soybean export inspection was 1,101,730 tons, in line with market expectations. The export inspection volume to China was 664,967 tons, accounting for 60.36% of the total inspection volume. As of last Thursday, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 68%, behind 80% of the same period last year [7] - In the domestic market on March 23, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 3007 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.73%. With the relaxation of the inspection of weeds and pests on imported Brazilian soybeans in China, it is expected that many soybeans stranded at ports will complete customs clearance one after another. After the soybean inventory of oil mills is replenished, the soybean meal production will remain high, and the tight supply situation of soybean meal will be alleviated [7] Live Pigs - On March 21, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The slaughter plan of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month, the slaughter rhythm accelerated significantly, the market supply was sufficient, and the sales were active. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was loose. On the demand side, it is in the seasonal off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Although frozen product segmentation warehousing and some secondary fattening have formed a certain bottom - support, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of strong supply and weak demand as a whole [7] Palm Oil - On March 23, benefiting from the rise of crude oil prices over the weekend, the palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated stronger. The main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9960, the lowest price was 9650, and the closing price was 9942, a rise of 2.31% compared to the previous trading day [8] - As of March 20, 2026 (the 12th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 808,200 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons or 4.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 419,900 tons or 108.14% compared to 388,300 tons of the same period last year [8] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 94,510, reached a high of 94,740, a low of 91,500, and closed at 92,100, with a settlement price of 92,870. The trading volume was 215,827 lots, and the open interest was 204,413 lots. Macro - suppression: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar suppress commodities. The fundamentals are weak: High smelting operation rate, increased imports, and rising bonded - area inventory; the demand in the "Golden March" is lower than expected, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper is 93,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan per ton; the premium to CU2605 is 120 - 160 yuan per ton [8] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15,316 yuan per ton at night on March 23. The cotton inventory decreased by 16 lots compared to the previous trading day. Entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream textile enterprises purchase as they use [8] Iron Ore - On March 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 819 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the demand for molten iron from steel mills' resumption of production increased, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - On March 23, the main contract of asphalt 2606 oscillated and rose, with a rise of 4.27% and a closing price of 4661 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, the inventory increased slightly, the downstream demand has not started, the refinery's shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825 on March 23, with a low of 819, a high of 832, and a closing price of 822, with an increase of 702 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8][9] Steel - On March 23, rb2605 closed at 3154 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3330 yuan per ton. The military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on March 23 entered the 24th day, and the transportation interruption in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and high oil prices will last longer. On the one hand, the energy substitution effect is strengthened, the shipping cost rises, and the prices of black - series raw fuels are pushed up. On the other hand, the global inflation expectation heats up, the liquidity tightens, the risk - aversion sentiment spreads, and the global economic growth is impacted. In the short term, driven by high costs, steel prices may oscillate stronger [9] Alumina - On March 23, ao2605 closed at 3093 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the new production capacity is being put into operation at an accelerated pace. The 1.2 million - ton project of Guangxi Long'an Hetai will be put into trial production in April, and another new production capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of March. Coupled with the high arrival volume of imported alumina from March to April (about 250,000 tons per month on average), the subsequent supply pressure is becoming increasingly prominent, which will effectively suppress the upward space of prices. On the demand side, the consumption improvement space is limited, and the spot trading atmosphere is average. Although the slight recovery of downstream consumption and the firmness of the spot provide a bottom support for alumina, the commissioning of new projects in many places and the increase in raw material arrivals have established the expectation of loose supply [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 23, al2605 closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. On the macro - level, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The US threatens to expand attacks on Iran's power generation facilities, and Iran responds firmly. The inflation risk caused by geopolitics intensifies, further leading to a collapse in demand and a shrinkage in investment. The market sentiment of trading recession remains. The precious metals and non - ferrous metal markets continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of Guinea's bauxite export policy. On the supply side of the fundamentals, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point. On the demand side, the receiving situation continues to improve. The absolute price has dropped to an ideal range, and downstream and terminal buyers increase their purchases at low prices, which continues to strengthen the support for the spot [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. Trump stated that the US and Iran may reach an agreement within 5 days, but Iran denied having negotiations with the US [7]. - Short - term rebounds are expected in the stock index futures market, but the subsequent market trend still depends on the geopolitical situation [10]. - The ethylene market is in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand, and the current high price may show marginal weakening [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out in the gold market, and silver has fallen from the shock platform. The prices of gold and silver have shown significant fluctuations, and ETF holdings and inventory have also changed [17]. - **Copper**: The price volatility has increased. The macro - political situation between the US and Iran has an impact, and there are also changes in production and operation in the industry, such as Zambia's plan to increase copper production and the suspension of Rio Tinto's copper mine operation [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The price has rebounded from the bottom, with changes in trading volume, position, and inventory [24]. - **Lead**: There is no clear driving force, and the price is in a shock state [27]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment [30]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory accumulation of aluminum has slowed down, alumina is in high - position shock, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum has shown some repair, and palladium is mainly in shock [37][39]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: There are contradictions between the macro and ore - end in the nickel market, and the short - term long - short game has intensified. Stainless steel is suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by actual costs [42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Attention should be paid to the bottom support [50]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should focus on inventory changes, and polysilicon is in bottom - shock [55][56]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is at a high level technically, and the volatility has intensified. The driving force comes from cost and inventory structural contradictions [59]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar**: Affected by the high - sentiment of the raw material sector, they are in a shock - strengthening state [63]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron is in a strong - shock state due to sector - sentiment resonance, and manganese silicon has high bullish sentiment, but attention should be paid to position risks [66]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is fermenting, and they are in a shock - strengthening state [69]. - **Steam Coal**: The sentiment is strong, and the port transaction price has moved up [73]. - **Log**: The price has rebounded with marginal strengthening [76]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA are in a short - term shock market and are still strong in the medium - term. MEG has tight supply and a strong medium - term trend [81]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range shock [87]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Due to repeated geopolitical situations, it has wide - range intraday shocks [90]. - **LLDPE and PP**: For LLDPE, the reduction of derivatives continues to be realized, and cost transmission is not smooth. For PP, the C3 raw material has strong support, but the spot price follows the increase slowly [94]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a wide - range shock [98]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock - strengthening state [102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [107]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide - range shock [110]. - **Urea**: It is operating within a range [116]. - **Styrene**: It is in high - position shock [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [126]. - **LPG and Propylene**: There are still geopolitical risks in the LPG market, and supply disturbances occur frequently. Propylene has a supply reduction expectation due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [130]. - **PVC**: It is in a wide - range shock [138]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil has declined, and short - term fluctuations continue to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to weaken, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market maintains a downward trend [141]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in high - position shock affected by oil prices, and soybean oil has limited upward space due to weak soybean - series drivers [170]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. The spot price of soybeans follows the futures price adjustment, and the futures price is in adjustment [175]. - **Corn**: It is operating in a shock state [178]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - shock state [182]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the external market [186]. - **Eggs**: They are in a weak - shock state [190]. - **Hogs**: The pressure in the near - term is increasing due to the approaching weight - reduction drive [193]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact [197]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Geopolitical disturbances are repeated, and the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and freight rates [143]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Due to repeated geopolitical situations, they are in high - position fluctuations [160]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [163]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in high - position shock [167].