股指期货|半年度报告 2025 年股指期货半年度报告 2025 年 7 月 3 日 国联期货研究所 云退泉犹涩，势韧步盘峰 证监许可[2011]1773 号 2025 年上半年 A 股市场整体呈现区间震荡格局，结构分化显著。在资 金的持续活跃的背景，市场风格从传统核心资产向成长型标的迁移。 估值方面，股指内部分化明显：上证 50 和沪深 300 指数市盈率偏高， 但市净率处于中低位，估值背离需盈利修复驱动收敛。受益于产业智能化、 新兴消费催化以及国家队等救市资金的入场支撑了高风险偏好资金的持续 活跃，中证 1000 相对沪深 300 拥挤度差仍将延续震荡上行趋势。 政策端发力成为市场重要支撑，但经济复苏仍面临内外挑战。金融传 导效率虽有所好转，但微观经济主体的信心修复进程尚未稳固，经济内生 动能的全面恢复仍需更有力的政策支持作为保障。CPI、PPI 持续低迷，企 业利润受成本与售价挤压。资本金融账户压力或将缓解，但中美贸易摩擦 升级加剧出口压力，经常账户仍面临较大压力。 策略建议：短期延续震荡，可逢高减持中小盘多单，建议空仓投资者 保持耐心，优先关注指数回调至区间下沿时的布局机会。中长期配置需审 慎，重点跟踪 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250703 2025年07月03日 投资要点 分析师:孟之绪 执业编号:S0300524080 邮箱: mengzhixu(a)ykzq.com 今日关注 指数涨跌情况:今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘,沪指涨 0.18%,收报 3461.15点;深证成指涨 1.17%,收报 10534.58点;科创 50 涨 0.24%,收报 984.95 点;创业板指涨 1.90%,收报 2164.09 点。总体上,全天个股涨多跌 少,Wind 数据显示,全市场 3270 只个股上涨,1863 只个股下跌,282 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 13097亿元,较上个交易日缩量 672.34亿元。 行业涨跌情况:今日申万一级行业涨多跌少,电子、电力设备、医药生物、 通信、建筑材料、纺织服饰等行业领涨,煤炭、交通运输、钢铁、石油石化、 银行、房地产等行业领跌。 板块涨跌情况:今日涨幅居前概念板块为电路板、万得预增、消费电子代工、 射频及天线、苹果、AI 手机、TWS耳机、创新药、无线充电、服务器、仿制 药、锂电电解液、生物科技等权、光模块(CPO)、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with significant sector differentiation and a focus on internal demand and domestic policy catalysts [3][4][5][7][8]. Market Performance - A-shares closed higher this week, with major indices like the ChiNext and CSI 500 showing strong gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index lagged behind [3]. - The market exhibited an "N-shaped" trend in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.2% from the beginning of the year to June 27 [4]. - Sector performance varied significantly, with non-ferrous metals and banking sectors leading with gains of 18.0% and 13.5%, respectively, while coal and real estate sectors faced declines of 12.6% and 7.4% [5]. Fund Flows - The A-share market saw active trading in the first half of the year, with an average daily turnover exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [6]. - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 1.6 billion yuan, while the issuance of equity funds rebounded significantly, surpassing 250 billion units [6]. Future Outlook - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with external risks potentially easing but still requiring vigilance regarding U.S. policies [7]. - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Domestic consumption, driven by policy support for expanding domestic demand 2. Domestic substitution, focusing on performance certainty and thematic investments 3. Sectors currently underweight by funds, which may see long-term interest due to regulatory changes [8].

2025 年 6 月 28 日 策略研究 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 ——策略周专题（2025 年 6 月第 4 期） 要点 本周 A 股收涨 本周 A 股收涨。本周 A 股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中证 500 等指数涨幅 靠前，上证 50、上证指数涨幅靠后。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数均收涨， 小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居前，而大盘价值、大盘成长涨幅靠后。分行业来看，申 万一级行业大多收涨，计算机、国防军工等行业涨幅靠前，石油石化、食品饮料等 行业跌幅靠前。 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 市场上半年呈"N 型"走势，上证指数小幅收涨。从上半年的市场表现来看，受海 内外多重因素交织影响，A 股上半年走势较为震荡，年初至 6 月 27 日，上证指数 上涨 2.2%。分阶段来看，市场上半年的走势可以分为"震荡上行——震荡调整— —震荡上行"三个阶段，整体呈"N 型"走势。年初至 3 月中旬，AI 产业加速发展 与政策暖风共振，A 股市场震荡上行；3 月下旬至 4 月上旬，受特朗普"对等关税" 影响，A 股市场震荡调整；4 月中旬至年中，国内政策积极发力，叠加中美贸易摩 擦阶段性缓和，市场震 ...

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 6月25日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资余额（亿元） | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 1541.63 | 39.95 | 2.66 | | 计算机 | 1387.36 | 22.77 | 1.67 | | 电子 | 2088.09 | 6.90 | 0.33 | | 国防军工 | 642.56 | 6.55 | 1.03 | | 基础化工 | 786.21 | 3.57 | 0.46 | | 通信 | 603.19 | 3.17 | 0.53 | | 家用电器 | 261.11 | 1.24 | 0.48 | | 电力设备 | 1296.12 | 1.09 | 0.08 | | 食品饮料 | 521.15 | 0.87 | 0.17 | | 环保 | 148.98 | 0.83 | 0.56 | | 美容护理 | 59.97 | 0.69 | 1.16 | | 社会服务 | 96.66 | 0.66 | 0.68 | | ...

大 类 资 产 配 置 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 23 日 通胀预期升温，全球权益多数回调 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250614-20250620) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 ⚫ 本周（20250614–20250620）。本周美联储维持利率不变符合市场预期，但是联储将今年个人消费支 出价格指数涨幅的预测中值从 3 月份的 2.7%升至 3%，显著高于美联储 2%的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the advancement of the new energy upstream raw material production in the production industry and the promotion of financial industry opening - up policies in the service industry [1][2] - Monitor the trends of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries, as well as the recent slight decline in credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries [3][4][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Mid - view Event Overview Production Industry - The "Fujian Province Hydrogen Energy Industry Innovation and Development Medium - and Long - Term Plan (2025 - 2035)" aims to achieve a green hydrogen production capacity of 30,000 tons/year and a hydrogen - based green fuel production capacity of 100,000 tons/year with a total hydrogen energy industry output value exceeding 60 billion yuan/year from 2025 - 2030. From 2030 - 2035, it aims to form an industrial system with diverse application scenarios and a total output value exceeding 300 billion yuan/year [1] Service Industry - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange drafted the "Notice on Deepening the Reform of Cross - border Investment and Financing Foreign Exchange Management (Draft for Comment)" involving three aspects: deepening cross - border investment foreign exchange management reform, cross - border financing foreign exchange management reform, and optimizing the facilitation of capital project income payments [2] - At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor announced eight major financial opening - up measures in Shanghai, including setting up a transaction reporting repository, a digital RMB international operation center, a personal credit reporting agency, etc. [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - International crude oil prices are continuously rising, while egg prices are continuously falling [3] Mid - stream - The PX operating rate is at a high level, and the urea operating rate is continuously rising [4] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year and at a near - three - year low. Domestic flight frequencies are cyclically decreasing [5] 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [6] 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 6/18) | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 60.79 | 66.88 | 59.28 | 56.87 | 0.00 | | Mining | 32.93 | 44.31 | 39.39 | 39.73 | 10.20 | | Chemical Industry | 71.19 | 59.18 | 20.99 | 50.48 | 0.20 | | Steel | 39.49 | 21.93 | 46.91 | 48.18 | 12.10 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 41.14 | 55.28 | 51.00 | 20.59 | 11.60 | | Electronics | 58.53 | 68.99 | 28.89 | 64.45 | 19.00 | | Automobile | 58.68 | 46.21 | 41.64 | 41.55 | 0.90 | | Household Appliances | 40.37 | 49.64 | 46.68 | 48.10 | 15.00 | | Food and Beverage | 40.25 | 41.59 | 36.25 | 37.52 | 4.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 48.03 | 51.98 | 51.69 | 52.77 | 12.20 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 46.71 | 159.30 | 145.95 | 146.85 | 7.60 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 52.64 | 68.67 | 59.40 | 57.89 | 7.30 | | Public Utilities | 24.62 | 30.71 | 27.04 | 26.96 | 9.40 | | Transportation | 30.29 | 34.77 | 31.18 | 31.11 | 6.10 | | Real Estate | 219.38 | 117.08 | 103.67 | 102.13 | 4.80 | | Commerce and Trade | 42.35 | 47.40 | 41.84 | 42.96 | 5.60 | | Leisure Services | 75.74 | 122.67 | 122.09 | 123.60 | 98.70 | | Banking | 26.58 | 18.03 | 18.01 | 17.09 | 2.60 | | Non - banking Finance | 26.45 | 31.70 | 29.51 | 29.12 | 6.60 | | Comprehensive | 66.51 | 47.54 | 42.20 | 42.27 | 2.00 | | Building Materials | 33.99 | 43.29 | 38.25 | 39.05 | 9.90 | | Building Decoration | 40.92 | 53.96 | 60.30 | 51.44 | 11.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 48.87 | 80.41 | 79.15 | 80.50 | 45.40 | | Machinery and Equipment | 29.54 | 46.61 | 43.99 | 44.63 | 27.30 | | Computer | 66.64 | 55.32 | 46.46 | 48.05 | 0.40 | | Media | 232.69 | 42.80 | 39.69 | 40.20 | 1.50 | | Communications | 29.66 | 24.94 | 25.36 | 26.40 | 2.80 | [51] 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 6/17) | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 2335.7 | 1.18% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/17 | 5.6 | - 3.95% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 8848.0 | 2.53% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 14846.5 | 1.53% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/17 | 20.2 | - 0.34% | | | | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 78740.0 | - 0.70% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 22008.0 | - 0.62% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 20633.3 | 2.18% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 120008.3 | - 2.34% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 16800.0 | 0.52% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 3062.3 | - 0.90% | | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 736.6 | - 0.46% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 3252.5 | - 0.46% | | | | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 6/17 | 13.8 | 0.00% | | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 13718.3 | 0.35% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 6/17 | 831.1 | 0.81% | | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/17 | 71.8 | 9.92% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/17 | 73.2 | 9.23% | | | Energy | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 3960.0 | - 0.95% | | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 731.0 | - 2.27% | | | | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 5045.0 | 3.37% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 7438.3 | 1.04% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 1820.0 | - 0.09% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 1370.0 | 0.00% | | | | National cement price index | Daily | - | 6/17 | 140.5 | - 0.27% | | | Real Estate | Building materials comprehensive index | Daily | Points | 6/17 | 111.8 | 0.18% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 6/17 | 99.0 | - 0.11% | | [52]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 叶青 见习记者 栗鹏菲 北京报道 在全球低利率周期背景下，港股高股息资产性价比持续抬升。富国基金强调，恒生港股通高股息低波动指数整体 股息率达8.1%，远高于10年期国债收益率。央国企作为港股高股息代表，在市值管理政策引导下，正通过优化分 红政策提升股东回报水平，配置价值凸显。 港股红利资产配置热潮持续升温。截至6月16日收盘，全市场首只港股通红利低波ETF（520550）强势实现日线十 连阳，且连续8个交易日获资金净流入，年内份额增幅达119%，规模迭创新高。紧随其后，港股红利ETF博时 （513690）同样表现强劲，在6月10日至6月16日期间呈现连续上涨趋势，近三日资金净流入接近6900万元。6月17 日，该ETF盘中上下震荡，最终以平盘收盘。 标杆产品港股红利指数ETF（513630）截至6月16日收盘也同样创下八连阳佳绩，收盘价攀升至1.45元刷新近期高 位。该ETF近8个交易日日均成交额达2.38亿元，6月16日单日成交额更突破4.79亿元，流动性优势凸显。规模方面 持续扩容，最新规模达112.97亿元，以77.62亿份的份额规模稳居Wi ...

本周消息面扰动因素有所增加：随着以色列与伊朗冲突加剧，全球对油价担忧急剧提升，黄金价格出现上涨，市场担心 由此引发新地缘动荡带来通胀风险。从目前影响来看，中东冲突对中国直接影响相对有限，间接影响主要体现在油价大 幅上涨风险，中东冲突长期以来都是油价催化剂，对短期价格有较大冲击作用，但持续时间较短，主要原因是全球化大 背景下，各主要经济体难以承受油价长期飙升严重后果。整体来看，中东冲突影响对市场是有限的，情绪影响大于实质 影响。6 月 13 日召开的国务院常务会议提出"更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，并围绕房地产市场作出一系列重要 部署，会议明确了政策"更大力度"发力的四个方向——稳定预期、激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，各地有望及时响 应，加快相关政策的落地落实，有利于地产周期更早调整到位，对经济运行起到边际改善的作用。 趋势依旧，新慢牛有望 3 季度开启: 市场虽然有所调整，但整体大的区间震荡趋势并不会有明显改变。当前市场的核心 要素仍然是基本面预期稳定向好，市场期待政策与外部因素逐步改善，从市场量能来看，维持市场结构性行情特征可能 性依然较大。近期主流热点主要围绕产业景气度展开，创新药、新消费等主流热点景 ...

证券代码：600881 证券简称：亚泰集团 公告编号：临 2025-064 号 吉林亚泰（集团）股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年年度股东大会的提示性公告 特 别 提 示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ●股东大会召开日期：2025 年 6 月 20 日 ●本次股东大会采用的网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会 网络投票系统 公 司 于 2025 年 5 月 30 日 在 上 海 证 券 交 易 所 网 站 （http://www.sse.com.cn）和《上海证券报》《中国证券报》《证券时 报》《证券日报》上刊登了《吉林亚泰（集团）股份有限公司关于召 开 2024 年年度股东大会的通知》，定于 2025 年 6 月 20 日召开 2024 年年度股东大会，根据相关规定，现发布本次股东大会的提示性公告， 具体内容如下： 一、召开会议基本情况 （一）股东大会届次 （二）股东大会召集人 公司董事会。 （三）投票方式 本次股东大会所采取的表决方式是现场投票和网络投票相结合 的方式。 无 二、会议审 ...