Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]

Group 1: General Information - The reports are from October 28, 2025, and cover multiple industries including oils and fats, meal, pork, corn, sugar, cotton, and eggs [1][2][4][7][10][12][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports Group 3: Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may weaken in the short - term due to production growth, export slowdown, and potential inventory increase. After the MPOB report, it may rise supported by production and inventory decline and the Indonesian B50 topic. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the Malaysian trend. Soybean oil may rise in the short - term due to strong CBOT soybean and soybean oil, but its increase may be limited by sufficient supply and weak demand [1] Meal Industry - With Sino - US relations warming, the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans is increasing, and US soybean压榨 data is strong. Brazilian soybean exports to China remain high. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but costs are strongly supported, so domestic meal is expected to trend strongly [2] Pork Industry - Recent pig price rebounds are due to secondary fattening. There is demand improvement, but 11 and 12 - month出栏量 will increase, and there may be new pressure around the Winter Solstice. Current arbitrage holding risks are high [4] Corn Industry - Northeast corn prices are stable overall, with some areas declining. In North China, farmers' selling enthusiasm decreases as prices fall. Corn is in the concentrated selling period, and the supply pressure keeps the market weak. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for刚需 [7] Sugar Industry - Brazil's gasoline price cut dashed the expectation of a lower sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose. As the Northern Hemisphere's crushing season begins, the market focuses on India and Thailand. Domestic sugar prices are near production costs, and the current bottom - shock weak pattern may continue [11] Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flows have recovered, and the rigid demand for cotton is resilient. New cotton costs have increased, but there is hedging pressure, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range [12] Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory, restored egg - laying rate, and increased egg weight. Demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline in the second half of the week due to supply - demand imbalance [15] Group 4: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from October 24. The futures price of Y2601 was 8234 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.49%). The basis was 246 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 3.91%) [1] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9030 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.33%). The futures price of P2601 was 9100 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 0.24%). The basis was - 70 yuan, up 52 yuan (42.62%) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.50%). The futures price of OI601 was 9748 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.13%). The basis was 302 yuan, up 63 yuan (26.36%) [1] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2410 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.41%). The futures price of RM2601 was 2335 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.43%). The basis was 75 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 21.05%) [2] Pork Industry - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 120, up 345 (153.33%). The price of Live Pig 2511 was 12065 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan (5.00%); Live Pig 2601 was 12330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan (1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Shandong was 12400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [4] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2601 was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.98%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2601 was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (- 0.66%). The basis was 85 yuan, up 16 yuan (23.19%) [7] Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.02%); Sugar 2605 was 5399 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%) [11] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.09%) [11] Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 was 13575 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.26%); Cotton 2601 was 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.18%) [12] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan (0.23%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.20%) [12] Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of Egg 11 contract was 2918 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan (1.46%); Egg 01 contract was 3327 yuan/500KG, up 25 yuan (0.76%) [15] - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan (1.08%) [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian stock market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by rumors of a tariff agreement with the United States, bringing the Nifty 50 index close to its historical high [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nifty 50 index has recorded its longest consecutive gain since September 12, rising for six consecutive trading days and is currently about 1% away from its all-time closing high [1]. - Gift Nifty futures rose by 377 points or 1.45% to 26,300 points, indicating a potential breakthrough of previous highs in the Indian stock market [1]. - The Nifty 50 index is expected to achieve its best monthly performance since March, with technical analysts identifying 26,000 points as a key resistance level [7]. Group 2: Trade Agreement Developments - Reports indicate that India and the United States have made significant progress in trade agreement negotiations, with the U.S. showing willingness to reach an agreement [4]. - The proposed trade agreement could reduce tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 15-16%, which market participants believe could eliminate major uncertainties and potentially trigger a new bull market [3][4]. - The agreement may involve India reducing its imports of Russian oil and increasing imports of non-GMO corn from the U.S. to meet domestic demand [5][4]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - There is an expectation of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) returning to the Indian market if the trade agreement rumors prove true, with the market potentially having no upper limit [6]. - After three months of net selling, FIIs have turned net buyers in the current month, purchasing 7.362 billion rupees worth of Indian stocks [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that any positive developments in trade could lead to a new bull market, with the Nifty index potentially reaching the 30,000 points range in the next 8-9 months [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].