Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has risen to over 7%, reaching 7.08% as of July 6, up from 6% on June 29, driven mainly by asphalt operating rates and passenger car sales [2][6][7] - Domestic flight numbers have slightly increased, with 14,400 flights executed in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3% compared to 12,800 flights in June [2][9] - The operating rate of asphalt facilities has increased to 32.7% as of July 9, up 4.7% year-on-year and 1% week-on-week [2][16] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars have shown a decline, with a year-on-year growth of only 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously and 15% in June [3][9] - The sales of commercial residential properties have decreased significantly, with a 24% year-on-year drop in transaction area for the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [3][9] - The land premium rate has decreased to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June [3][10] Group 3: Price Trends - Resource prices continue to rise, with various commodities such as coal and steel experiencing price increases due to "anti-involution" sentiments [2][39] - The price of Shanxi-produced power coal (Q5500) has increased by 1.4%, while the price of coking coal has risen by 9.8% [2][39] - The national average price of second-hand houses has decreased by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities seeing a 0.2% decline [3][41] Group 4: Trade and External Demand - China's port container throughput has rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% as of July 6, up from 3.1% the previous week [2][19] - The export growth rate to the U.S. has shown a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% in the first eight days of July [20][21] - The shipping demand from China to the U.S. has decreased, with a 10.8% year-on-year drop in the number of container ships dispatched [20][21] Group 5: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued as of July 11, representing 54.3% of the annual target, faster than the previous year's pace [3][44] - The yields on government bonds have increased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653% respectively, reflecting increases from the previous week [4][58]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 7.08% as of July 6, 2025, up from 6.00% on June 29, marking an increase of 1.08%[2] - Domestic flight executions increased to 14,400 flights in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3%[8] - The operating rate of asphalt plants rose to 32.7% as of July 9, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[15] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year increase of 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously, and June's total was 15%[8] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[3] - The land premium rate fell to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June[9] Price Movements - Resource prices continued to rise, with Shanxi thermal coal prices increasing by 1.4%, and rebar prices in Shanghai rising by 1.9%[46] - The national average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities down by 0.2%[47] - The overall price index for agricultural products rose, with vegetable prices increasing by 1.8% and fruit prices by 2.1%[46] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued this year, achieving 54.3% of the annual target, compared to 39.3% last year[54] - As of July 11, 2025, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.4bps, 3.63bps, and 2.2bps from the previous week[67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From 2020 - 2024, both the total supply and total demand of the asphalt market showed negative growth trends, with compound growth rates of -6% and -4.5% respectively. In 2024, the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a total demand decline of 11.2% and a total supply decline of 15%. The price showed a "tail - up" trend at the end of the year due to factors such as inventory reduction. Looking forward to 2025, the asphalt supply and demand are still likely to be in a negative growth trend, but there may be a phased increase. The consumption has room for growth, and the price is expected to rise in the second half of the year [1][4][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asphalt Market Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - **2020 - 2024 Overall Situation**: The asphalt production capacity peaked in 2023. The total supply and total demand had compound growth rates of -6% and -4.5% respectively. The production capacity decreased from 8090 million tons in 2023 to 7870 million tons in 2024, a -2.7% decline; the production decreased from 3207 million tons in 2023 to 2638 million tons in 2024, a -17.7% decline; the total supply decreased from 3510 million tons in 2023 to 2984 million tons in 2024, a -15% decline; the total demand decreased from 3462 million tons in 2023 to 3069 million tons in 2024, an -11.4% decline [1][2][5]. - **2024 Situation**: In 2024, the asphalt market was in a weak supply - demand situation. The total demand decreased by 11.2%, and the total supply decreased by 15%. The futures price fluctuated narrowly from January to July, then fell unilaterally in August, and showed a "tail - up" trend at the end of the year. The monthly supply - demand balance showed that the supply - demand gap turned negative from June, and the commercial inventory decreased rapidly during the traditional construction season from September to November [4]. 3.2 Analysis of Asphalt Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Reasons - **2020 - 2024 Price Trend**: The domestic asphalt price first rose and then fell, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not dull in the off - season". The average price low was 2077 yuan/ton in March 2020, and the high was 4712 yuan/ton in June 2022. The price fluctuations were divided into five stages, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, costs, supply, and demand [10]. - **2024 Price Situation**: In 2024, due to factors such as high local debts in some provinces and tight terminal funds, the demand reached a new low. The national average asphalt price ranged from 3553 to 3803 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 6.8%. The annual high was in early May, and the low was in October. The annual central price was 3675 yuan/ton, a 5.2% decline compared to 2023 [12]. 3.3 Outlook on Asphalt Market Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - **Supply Situation**: From 2020 - 2024, the asphalt industry profit was in a long - term bear market, and the supply decreased year by year. The capacity utilization rate decreased from 47.7% in 2020 to 33.5% in 2024, a 14.2% decline. In 2024, the domestic asphalt processing profit reached a five - year low, and the production also reached a five - year low. In the first half of 2025, the profit was repaired, and the production increased by 5.0% year - on - year [17]. - **Demand Situation**: From 2020 - 2024, the asphalt consumption had a five - year compound growth rate of -4.4%. The demand was mainly concentrated in road construction and maintenance and waterproofing. The new road construction in the "14th Five - Year Plan" decreased, and the real - estate prosperity index was at a low level, resulting in a weakening of asphalt demand [17]. - **2025 Forecast**: It is expected that the production increase space in 2025 is limited, while the consumption has room for growth. The monthly consumption has been above 280 million tons since July, and there will be a concentrated demand release from September to November. The price is expected to rise in the second half of the year, with the peak reaching over 3900 yuan/ton from October to November [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of various sectors in June, with a notable decline in coal-fired power generation and a slight recovery in construction-related activities [1][3][11] - The coal-fired power generation in June decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, contrasting with a 0.4% increase in May, indicating a downward trend in traditional energy sources as renewable energy gains market share [1][8] - Industrial operating rates showed seasonal characteristics, with steel and coking industries experiencing declines, while the automotive and chemical sectors, particularly styrene, showed marginal improvements [2][9][10] Group 2 - Infrastructure-related indicators improved significantly, with the national construction site funding availability rate at 59.1%, a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [3][11] - Cement dispatch rates rose to 40.8% year-on-year, up 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend in construction activity [11][12] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 2.0% year-on-year, reflecting stable social activity despite seasonal weather impacts [13][13] Group 3 - New home sales showed signs of weakening, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities down 8.6% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 3.3% in May [4][15][16] - The automotive and home appliance sectors remained bright spots in the economy, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 24% year-on-year in early June [6][17] - The three major home appliances maintained high sales growth rates, with online sales showing significant fluctuations throughout June [18][19][20] Group 4 - Container throughput growth slowed, but the number of container ships sent to the U.S. showed signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in June [6][21][22] - The overall economic picture for June reflects resilience in the automotive and home appliance sectors, while traditional infrastructure projects are gradually gaining momentum [23][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including consumer spending, external demand, and real estate sales. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Durable goods consumption shows an upward trend, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 24.8% year-on-year as of June 22, compared to 13.3% in May [1] - External demand is improving, as indicated by the Markit Manufacturing PMI for major overseas economies averaging around 51.1% in June, up from 50.9% in May, with contributions mainly from Japan, India, and the UK [2] - Land premium rates have rebounded from low levels, reaching 7.3% in the week of June 22, compared to an average of 3.2% over the past three weeks and 4.93% in May [3] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly declined to 7.63% as of June 22, down from 7.94% on June 15 [2] - Service consumption metrics, such as subway ridership and flight numbers, are close to last year's levels, with subway ridership averaging 77.42 million daily in 27 cities, a 0.5% increase year-on-year [2] - Real estate sales are declining, with residential sales in 67 cities showing a year-on-year decrease of 16% as of June 27, compared to a 13% decline in May [2] Group 3: Special Bonds and Interest Rates - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued have reached 2.16 trillion, accounting for 49.1% of the annual issuance plan, faster than last year's 37.8% [3] - Interest rates have increased, with DR001 at 1.3683%, DR007 at 1.6968%, and R007 at 1.9201% as of June 27, showing mixed changes compared to June 20 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the progress and future expectations regarding the clearance of government debts owed to enterprises, highlighting the allocation of special bonds for this purpose [1][11][19] - In 2024, the Ministry of Finance allocated a debt limit of 1.2 trillion yuan to support local governments in resolving hidden debts and clearing overdue payments to enterprises [1][11] - By 2025, the government plans to use newly issued special bonds, amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan, to address overdue payments and support investment projects [1][11][19] Group 2 - Recent developments show that several provinces have announced budget adjustments, with Yunnan Province allocating 356 billion yuan for debt clearance, while Hunan Province allocated 200 billion yuan, representing 14% of its annual special bond limit [13][14] - The total amount of special bonds confirmed for debt clearance currently stands at 556 billion yuan, with expectations that it may exceed 1 trillion yuan for the year [18][19] - The overall trend indicates that the use of special bonds for debt clearance may limit the funds available for project construction [2][19] Group 3 - Observations of the effectiveness of debt clearance can be gauged through the accounts receivable situation of enterprises, with significant increases in the average collection period for both industrial enterprises and A-share listed companies [20] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the average accounts receivable turnover days for A-share listed companies reached 52.6 days, indicating a longer collection period compared to previous years [20] - Industries with traditionally longer accounts receivable turnover days include water conservancy and environmental protection, which averaged 185 days [20] Group 4 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown an upward trend, reaching 7.94% as of June 15, 2025, driven by factors such as asphalt operating rates and retail sales of passenger vehicles [25][26] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 21% year-on-year in mid-June, continuing a positive trend from previous months [28] - The construction sector is experiencing a decline in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, indicating potential challenges in infrastructure development [36] Group 5 - The issuance of new special bonds is expected to increase significantly, with plans to issue over 400 billion yuan in a single week, marking a new high for 2024 [62][63] - The downward trend in funding rates is evident, with the DR001 rate at 1.3742% as of June 20, 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [74]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on June 9, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao (SAC registration number: S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC registration number: S1340523120001) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production is stable with a slight decline, real estate shows continuous marginal improvement, prices have a marginal recovery, and shipping indices continue to rise significantly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][31] Group 3: Production - In the week of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens decreased by 0.15 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 3.6 pct, the PX operating rate increased by 4.91 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 6.1 pct. The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 1.33 pct, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 4.39 pct [3][10][11] Group 4: Demand - In the week of June 1, the real estate market continued to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing rising and the inventory - to - sales ratio falling. The land transaction area increased, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. The movie box office increased by 235 million yuan compared with the previous week. In the week of May 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 34,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 80,700 vehicles. In the week of June 6, the shipping index SCFI rose 8.09%, CCFI rose 3.34%, and BDI rose 15.16% [3][14][20] Group 5: Prices - In the week of June 6, Brent crude oil prices rose 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, coking coal futures prices rose 5.06% to 779 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.83%, +0.12%, and +1.25% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures prices rose 0.64%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.97%, - 2.96%, +0.46%, and - 0.64% respectively compared with the previous week [3][22][24] Group 6: Logistics - In the week of June 7, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of May 28, the number of domestic and international flights decreased [4][27][29]

研究所 宏观研究 5月经济高频数据环比回暖 投资要点 (1)5月经济景气度环比回升,稳增长政策效果仍需释放 从高频数据来看,5月经济景气度环比有所回暖,稳增长政策效 果显现,工业需求环比回升,消费具有季节性回升特点,面对外部高 不确定性,短期市场微观主体情绪趋于谨慎,生产表现为以订单驱动 的特点,生产表现相对平稳,但整体表现为供过于求的态势,有效需 求不足仍是制约经济的核心矛盾,带来要素市场景气度回落,PPI 同 比增速跌幅或进一步扩大,符合我们在报告《4月经济呈现供给驱动 特征,应超前关注科技产业对投资的补充》的基准假设。在此情境下, 基于避险和对政策不确定性的恐慌,在美国对我国加征关税的 90天 豁免期内,美国或加大进口,以避免未来不确定性影响,这或支撑短 期我国出口韧性,亦维持短期生产稳定。但因市场微观主体偏于谨慎, 企业生产或以订单驱动,投资扩产意愿下降:以内需为主的企业或担 忧外贸转内需的潜在影响,其投资扩产亦受一定冲击:市场微观个体 对就业和收入预期或有所下降,居民预算约束趋严,进而对消费形成 收缩压力。在此背景下,国内稳增长政策可对冲部分外部冲击影响, 但 PPI 同比增速跌幅进一步扩大,或指向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sales momentum is declining, while passenger car sales remain resilient; construction demand still needs improvement, and concerns over external demand are marginally easing, with an increase in China's export orders to the U.S. and a rebound in port cargo throughput and freight rates [1]. Group 1: Real Estate and Consumer Sales - Real estate sales continue to be weak, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities; first-tier cities saw a 12.4% increase, while second-tier cities experienced a 30.2% decrease, and third-tier cities had a 7.0% increase [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 30% year-on-year from May 6 to May 11, driven by national subsidy policies and promotional events [2]. - The demand for durable consumer goods, particularly automobiles, remains strong, while the film box office revenue has significantly declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][2]. Group 2: Construction and Manufacturing - The construction demand remains weak, influenced by local rainfall, with resource prices showing divergence; rebar and hot-rolled coil prices increased by 1.6% and 2.5% week-on-week, respectively [3]. - Manufacturing activity has seen a rebound, with significant increases in operating rates for the automotive sector and a 5.6% week-on-week increase in the operating rate for petroleum asphalt facilities [3]. - The prices of copper and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 2.8% week-on-week, respectively, supported by improved demand expectations due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to decline, with metro passenger volume in major cities showing a 4.6% increase year-on-year but a 0.3% decrease month-on-month [4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased by 2.3% week-on-week but increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while international flights saw a 4.0% decrease week-on-week but a 17.1% increase year-on-year, recovering to 81.8% of the levels seen in 2019 [4]. - The SCFI/BDI indices increased by 10.0% and 6.9% week-on-week, respectively, indicating a recovery in port cargo throughput and container volume [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing improvement while others are experiencing declines, particularly in consumer retail and trade with the US. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has weakened but remains above 5%, recorded at 5.16% as of May 11, down from 7.73% on May 4, driven mainly by infrastructure and passenger vehicle consumption [3][5][6]. - The average asphalt plant operating rate increased to 34.4% in the second week of May from 28.8% in the first week, indicating a recovery in infrastructure activity [2][14]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities has decreased to 7.9% from 9.63% in April, reflecting a cooling in the real estate market [9]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Retail sales growth for passenger vehicles has slowed, with a growth rate of 11% as of May 11, down from 14.5% in April [8]. - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 10% year-on-year as of May 16, indicating weak demand in the housing market [8]. - The average daily passenger volume for subways remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [8]. Group 3: Trade and External Demand - Direct trade between China and the US has continued to decline, with container ship numbers and capacity from China to the US dropping by 34.4% year-on-year as of May 17 [20][22]. - There has been a rebound in the number of ships docking at major ASEAN ports, increasing by 0.8% week-on-week as of May 15, suggesting potential for re-export opportunities [22]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly dropped, closing at $3191.8 per ounce, a decrease of 4% [4][32]. - Domestic commodity prices have shown mixed trends, with the BPI index rising by 1.1% and the CRB index increasing by 0.3% [32][35]. Group 5: Debt and Interest Rates - New local government bond issuance plans have been disclosed, with a total of 4159 billion yuan in special bonds planned for 2025 [36]. - Interest rates have seen a slight increase, with DR001 at 1.6313% and DR007 at 1.6374%, reflecting a tightening in liquidity conditions [39].