Group 1: Report Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on June 9, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao (SAC registration number: S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC registration number: S1340523120001) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production is stable with a slight decline, real estate shows continuous marginal improvement, prices have a marginal recovery, and shipping indices continue to rise significantly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][31] Group 3: Production - In the week of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens decreased by 0.15 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 3.6 pct, the PX operating rate increased by 4.91 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 6.1 pct. The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 1.33 pct, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 4.39 pct [3][10][11] Group 4: Demand - In the week of June 1, the real estate market continued to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing rising and the inventory - to - sales ratio falling. The land transaction area increased, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. The movie box office increased by 235 million yuan compared with the previous week. In the week of May 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 34,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 80,700 vehicles. In the week of June 6, the shipping index SCFI rose 8.09%, CCFI rose 3.34%, and BDI rose 15.16% [3][14][20] Group 5: Prices - In the week of June 6, Brent crude oil prices rose 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, coking coal futures prices rose 5.06% to 779 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.83%, +0.12%, and +1.25% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures prices rose 0.64%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.97%, - 2.96%, +0.46%, and - 0.64% respectively compared with the previous week [3][22][24] Group 6: Logistics - In the week of June 7, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of May 28, the number of domestic and international flights decreased [4][27][29]

研究所 宏观研究 5月经济高频数据环比回暖 投资要点 (1)5月经济景气度环比回升,稳增长政策效果仍需释放 从高频数据来看,5月经济景气度环比有所回暖,稳增长政策效 果显现,工业需求环比回升,消费具有季节性回升特点,面对外部高 不确定性,短期市场微观主体情绪趋于谨慎,生产表现为以订单驱动 的特点,生产表现相对平稳,但整体表现为供过于求的态势,有效需 求不足仍是制约经济的核心矛盾,带来要素市场景气度回落,PPI 同 比增速跌幅或进一步扩大,符合我们在报告《4月经济呈现供给驱动 特征,应超前关注科技产业对投资的补充》的基准假设。在此情境下, 基于避险和对政策不确定性的恐慌,在美国对我国加征关税的 90天 豁免期内,美国或加大进口,以避免未来不确定性影响,这或支撑短 期我国出口韧性,亦维持短期生产稳定。但因市场微观主体偏于谨慎, 企业生产或以订单驱动,投资扩产意愿下降:以内需为主的企业或担 忧外贸转内需的潜在影响,其投资扩产亦受一定冲击:市场微观个体 对就业和收入预期或有所下降,居民预算约束趋严,进而对消费形成 收缩压力。在此背景下,国内稳增长政策可对冲部分外部冲击影响, 但 PPI 同比增速跌幅进一步扩大,或指向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sales momentum is declining, while passenger car sales remain resilient; construction demand still needs improvement, and concerns over external demand are marginally easing, with an increase in China's export orders to the U.S. and a rebound in port cargo throughput and freight rates [1]. Group 1: Real Estate and Consumer Sales - Real estate sales continue to be weak, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities; first-tier cities saw a 12.4% increase, while second-tier cities experienced a 30.2% decrease, and third-tier cities had a 7.0% increase [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 30% year-on-year from May 6 to May 11, driven by national subsidy policies and promotional events [2]. - The demand for durable consumer goods, particularly automobiles, remains strong, while the film box office revenue has significantly declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][2]. Group 2: Construction and Manufacturing - The construction demand remains weak, influenced by local rainfall, with resource prices showing divergence; rebar and hot-rolled coil prices increased by 1.6% and 2.5% week-on-week, respectively [3]. - Manufacturing activity has seen a rebound, with significant increases in operating rates for the automotive sector and a 5.6% week-on-week increase in the operating rate for petroleum asphalt facilities [3]. - The prices of copper and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 2.8% week-on-week, respectively, supported by improved demand expectations due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to decline, with metro passenger volume in major cities showing a 4.6% increase year-on-year but a 0.3% decrease month-on-month [4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased by 2.3% week-on-week but increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while international flights saw a 4.0% decrease week-on-week but a 17.1% increase year-on-year, recovering to 81.8% of the levels seen in 2019 [4]. - The SCFI/BDI indices increased by 10.0% and 6.9% week-on-week, respectively, indicating a recovery in port cargo throughput and container volume [4].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1 、基建：石油沥青装置开工率上升。 5 月第二周，石油沥青装置开工率为 34.4% ，第一周为 28.8% ； 4 月 3 日 -4 月 30 日四周，平均为 28.8% 。 2 、外贸：潜在转口或有所提升。 截至 5 月 15 日的一周内，东盟主要国家港口停靠船舶数量有所反 弹，环比 5 月第一周 +0.8% ，上一周环比 +0.9% 。 景气向下 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数：环比走弱，但仍在 5% 以上。 截至 5 月 11 日，该指数为 5.16% ，环比 5 月 4 日的 7.73% 下行 2.58% 。 4 月以来指数上行的主要驱动因素包括基建和乘用车消费，工业 生产、耐用品消费、服务消费提振有限。 债券发行： 截至 5 月 18 日， 29 个地方披露了 2025 年 5 月 /Q2 地方债发行计划（含已知发 行），其中新增专项债发行计划已披露 4159 亿 /10872 亿（ 2024 年同期，已披露地区实际发行 4391 亿 /75 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.7 points (previous value was 125.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points (previous increase was 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase has rebounded. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is short, with a signal factor of 6.4% (previous value was 6.3%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 125.3 (previous value was 125.2), with a week - on - week increase of 4.7 points (previous increase was 4.6 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 45.0 (previous value was 45.1), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 points (previous decrease was 6.8 points), and the year - on - year decline has narrowed; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.4 (previous value was 117.2), with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 points (previous increase was 0.0 points), and the year - on - year increase has expanded; the export high - frequency index is 144.6 (previous value was 144.7), with a week - on - week increase of 7.2 points (previous increase was 7.6 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed; the consumption high - frequency index is 119.4 (previous value was 119.4), with a week - on - week increase of 1.3 points (previous increase was 1.2 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the CPI month - on - month forecast is 0.0% (previous value was 0.0%); the PPI month - on - month forecast is - 0.3% (previous value was - 0.3%) [2]. - The inventory high - frequency index is 159.8 (previous value was 159.7), with a week - on - week increase of 10.0 points (previous increase was 10.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. In transportation, the transportation high - frequency index is 127.1 (previous value was 126.9), with a week - on - week increase of 7.6 points (previous increase was 7.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased. In financing, the financing high - frequency index is 226.7 (previous value was 226.1), with a week - on - week increase of 29.0 points (previous increase was 29.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Taking the Lead in Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. was constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices were built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.7 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points. The interest - rate bond long - short signal factor is 6.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [9][11]. Production: Chemical Industry Operating Rate Rebounds - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.3, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points. The electric furnace operating rate is 64.7% (previous value was 63.5%); the polyester operating rate is 93.9% (previous value was 92.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 78.3% (previous value was 58.4%); the full - tire operating rate is 65.1% (previous value was 44.8%); the PTA operating rate is 74.6% (previous value was 74.5%); the PX operating rate is 78.2% (previous value was 77.2%) [1][13]. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Year - on - Year Remain Negative - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 45.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.7 points. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 27.1 million square meters (previous value was 19.8 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large and medium - sized cities is 7.2% (previous value was 8.7%) [11][21]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Rebounds - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.4, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 points and a year - on - year increase of 0.5 points. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 34.4% (previous value was 28.8%) [11][35]. Export: Yiwu Commodity Price Index Has Rebounded - The export high - frequency index is 144.6, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 7.2 points. The CCFI index is 1105 points (previous value was 1106 points), and the RJ/CRB index is 297.6 points (previous value was 291.5 points) [11][37]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail Sales Increase - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.4, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 points. Passenger car manufacturers' retail sales are 60,896 units (previous value was 41,659 units), passenger car manufacturers' wholesale sales are 48,492 units (previous value was 34,604 units), and the average daily box office is 34.25 million yuan (previous value was 72.49 million yuan) [11][49]. CPI: Vegetable Prices Continue to Fall - The CPI month - on - month forecast is 0.0%. The average wholesale price of pork is 20.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value), the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.3 yuan/kg (previous value was 4.4 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value was 7.8 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value was 17.2 yuan/kg) [2][57]. PPI: Crude Oil Prices Have Rebounded - The PPI month - on - month forecast is - 0.3%. The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi - produced, Q5500) is 619 yuan/ton (previous value was 638 yuan/ton), the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 66 US dollars/barrel (previous value was 62 US dollars/barrel), and the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9569 US dollars/ton (previous value was 9471 US dollars/ton) [2][63]. Transportation: Passenger Transport Rebounds, Flights Decline - The transportation high - frequency index is 127.1, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 7.6 points. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 38.69 million person - times (previous value was 36.98 million person - times), the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (unchanged from the previous value), and the number of domestic flights has decreased to 12,728 flights (previous value was 13,179 flights) [2][74]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Declines - The inventory high - frequency index is 159.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 10.0 points. The spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased to 89,000 tons (previous value was 171,000 tons) [2][80]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Rebounds, Net Financing of Credit Bonds Declines - The financing high - frequency index is 226.7, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.0 points. The net financing of local government bonds is 171.1 billion yuan (previous value was 67.2 billion yuan), the net financing of credit bonds is - 17.5 billion yuan (previous value was 4.1 billion yuan), and the 6 - month national equity bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 1.11% (previous value was 1.07%) [11][91].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed trend, with some sectors experiencing growth while others face declines, indicating potential investment opportunities and risks in various industries. Group 1: Economic Activity - The transportation department reported a 9.7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow on April 4, compared to a 6% increase during the Spring Festival [2] - Cement shipment rates have risen for seven consecutive weeks, reaching 42.7% as of March 28, up 4.5 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The land premium rate in 100 cities increased to 23.12% for the week ending March 30, compared to 14.55% in March and 10.42% in February [2] Group 2: Declining Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index fell below 4% for the first time since the Spring Festival, registering at 3.84% as of March 30, down 1.34% from March 23 [3][7] - Container throughput at monitored ports decreased by 0.7% week-on-week as of March 30, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.9%, lower than the 10.3% increase in January-February [3][23] - Major commodities saw significant price drops due to tariff impacts, with COMEX gold down 1.8%, LME copper down 9.5%, and both WTI and Brent crude oil down over 10% [3][29] Group 3: Debt Issuance and Interest Rates - As of April 4, 23 provinces disclosed plans for local bond issuance, with new special bond issuance plans totaling 263.5 billion out of 856.4 billion [4][33] - Interest rates have declined due to tariff impacts, with DR001 at 1.6273%, DR007 at 1.6981%, and R007 at 1.7428%, all showing significant decreases from March 28 [4][35] - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.4829%, 1.5616%, and 1.7180%, respectively, with declines noted since March 28 [4][35] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - During the Qingming Festival, cross-regional travel increased by 9.7%, with rail, water, civil aviation, and road transport all showing growth [12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles fell to a 3% year-on-year increase as of March 31, down from 8% previously [13] - Real estate sales remain weak, with a 29.8% year-on-year decline in residential sales in 67 cities during the first three days of April [13] Group 5: Production and Trade - The cement shipment rate has improved, while the asphalt production rate has shown a downward trend, indicating mixed signals in the construction sector [17] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showed a year-on-year decline of 7.2% as of April 4, reflecting challenges in the shipping industry [22] - Domestic container shipping rates have increased, with the Shanghai export container freight index rising by 2.8% [23]