Oil Market - International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude for September increasing by 0.98% [1] - The U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels, but the market remains focused on the renewed risks of sanctions on oil [1] - The geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia are expected to support oil prices in the short term, and investors are advised to consider the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [1] Precious Metals - The U.S. reported a rebound in Q2 GDP at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations, while ADP employment increased by 104,000, also above expectations [2] - Following the data release, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to continue adjusting in a volatile manner due to reduced risk aversion and clearer tariff negotiations [2] Copper - Copper prices fell sharply, with a near 20% drop in short-term prices, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on copper products, impacting market sentiment [3] - The COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, and the market is closely watching the implementation of the U.S. tariff agreements [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, a stronger dollar is suppressing copper prices, with adjustments expected towards the 60-day moving average [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with seasonal demand showing signs of decline and inventory levels increasing [4] - The market is experiencing a drop in aluminum alloy profits, with short-term price pressures expected despite some resilience in the medium term [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high but experienced significant fluctuations, with total market inventory continuing to rise [10] - Traders are optimistic, with spot market activity increasing, and Australian mine prices reported at $845, indicating a rebound from low levels [10] Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing a downward trend, with rebar demand showing slight recovery but overall investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down [13] - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with global shipments exceeding last year's levels, but domestic port arrivals are weak, leading to a potential slight reduction in inventory [14] Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean quality ratings are at 70%, higher than expected, indicating a potential for early harvest expectations [35] - Corn futures are fluctuating, with U.S. corn quality ratings at 73%, suggesting a stable growth trend [39] - The domestic demand for urea is weak, with production increasing but overall demand remaining low [23] Financial Markets - The A-share market showed increased volatility, with major indices experiencing mixed movements, and the market sentiment remains relatively positive [47] - The bond market is expected to enter a repair phase, with the yield curve likely to steepen due to increased fiscal measures [48]

Group 1: Trade Relations - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts by China and the U.S. to ease trade tensions, with recent discussions in Stockholm focusing on economic policies and trade agreements [1] - The consensus reached during the talks includes extending the suspension of U.S. tariffs and China's countermeasures for an additional 90 days [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with significant trading activity noted at 1.83 trillion yuan, while financing balances increased by 19.26 billion yuan [2][8] - The banking sector has shown strong performance since 2025, benefiting from a low-risk interest rate environment, which is expected to attract more long-term capital into the market [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have seen fluctuations due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi, with weekly production slightly increasing [3][19] - Oil prices rose by 2.49% following Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs on Russia if progress is not made in resolving the Ukraine conflict [3][10] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% in June, with imports decreasing by 4.2% and exports declining by 0.6% [4] - China's state-owned enterprises reported a slight decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with a debt ratio increase to 65.2% [5]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

Report Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the long term, short - term upside limited [1] - Gold: Sideways in the short term, risk of pull - back after rally [1] - Copper: Bearish [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term bearish due to surplus [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, short - term trading, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of price decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to surplus [1] - Coking Coal: Sideways, avoid shorting in the short term, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Coke: Sideways, look for selling - hedging opportunities when futures are at a premium [1] - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Logs: Sideways [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Fuel Oil: Bullish in the short term due to consumption and supply factors [1] - Asphalt: Volatile due to cost and demand factors [1] - Shanghai Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - BR Rubber: Sideways with some support [1] - PTA: Sideways [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways [1] - Short - fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bearish [1] - Urea: Sideways [1] - PE: Sideways to bullish [1] - PP: Sideways to bullish [1] - PVC: Sideways to bullish [1] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [1] - LPG: Sideways to bearish [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, expected price peak in mid - July [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to be bullish in the short term due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank limit upside [1] - Gold prices will mainly fluctuate due to market uncertainties [1] - Copper prices face a risk of catch - up decline due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum prices will move sideways to bearishly due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina prices will stabilize and rise due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc prices are under pressure, and shorting opportunities should be watched [1] - Nickel prices will move sideways, with short - term shorting opportunities and long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless steel futures will move sideways, and cash - and - carry opportunities should be grasped [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but face a risk of decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon is bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium carbonate prices will move sideways [1] - Iron ore has good market sentiment but weakening fundamentals [1] - Black metals are bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking coal and coke should focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Palm oil should look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Cotton prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production should be watched [1] - Corn prices will move sideways, and shorting opportunities for the 001 contract should be watched [1] - Soybean meal prices will move sideways, and buying opportunities on dips should be considered [1] - Pulp should not be chased higher [1] - Live pig futures are stable [1] - Fuel oil and asphalt prices are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Chemical product prices are affected by supply, demand, cost, and other factors, showing different trends [1] - Container shipping to Europe is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation, with an expected price peak in mid - July [1] Summary by Category Index - Short - term bullish trend due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] Treasury Bonds - Bullish in the long term due to asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upside limited by central bank - hinted interest rate risks [1] Gold - Sideways in the short term due to market uncertainties, risk of pull - back after rally [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Bearish due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities due to inventory build - up pressure [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, focus on cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of decline in the long term [1] Energy and Chemicals - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil and Asphalt: Affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - Chemical Products: Different trends affected by supply, demand, cost, etc [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase in Brazil [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for the 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] Others - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Stable reality and weak expectation, expected price peak in mid - July [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic export and financial data are better than expected, boosting the sentiment of the domestic market. However, short - term external risks need to be noted. The domestic risk preference continues to rise, and the short - term optimistic sentiment persists [2][3]. - The short - term trends of various assets are as follows: The stock index fluctuates strongly in the short term; treasury bonds fluctuate at a high level; among commodity sectors, black metals rebound from a low level, non - ferrous metals fluctuate, energy and chemicals fluctuate, and precious metals fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US president's announcement of more tariff letters leads the EU to take counter - measures, and the market takes a wait - and - see attitude. Fed officials indicate no urgent need for interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index rebounds in the short term [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continues to rise, and export and financial data in June are better than expected, with economic growth accelerating. Policy emphasizes "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment", which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, metals, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive weakens, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuate due to policy expectations and避险情绪. Silver shows a strong upward trend, and the gold - silver ratio is significantly repaired. In the long - term, the support logic for precious metals remains solid [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel futures and spot prices continue to rebound. Although the export in the first half of the year is good, the demand weakens in reality, and the supply decreases due to the implementation of production - restriction policies. The cost support is strong, and the short - term steel market is still treated with a rebound mindset [5]. Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore continue to rebound. The fundamentals of iron ore weaken marginally, and the implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. The short - term macro - logic dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remain flat, and the futures prices rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreases, and the short - term prices may follow the rebound of coal prices [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The concern about tariffs resurfaces. The future trend of copper prices depends on the time when tariffs are implemented. If implemented before August 1, copper prices will continue to weaken; otherwise, the price may be supported [11]. Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum drops significantly. In addition to tariff concerns, the significant increase in social inventory is also an important factor [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the short - term price will fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [11]. Tin - The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward space will be suppressed in the medium term [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate rises significantly. The production increases, and the inventory accumulates. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon rises. The production increases, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy [14]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon rises. The supply is stable at a low level, and the downstream prices change. Affected by policy news, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about tariffs continues, and the demand worry puts pressure on oil prices. However, the short - term tightness in the spot market supports the price [16][17]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates. The shipment volume decreases, the factory inventory starts to accumulate, and the demand in the peak season is average [17]. PX - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate weakly. The upstream profit is greatly reduced, and the downstream demand may weaken [17]. PTA - The PTA market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The price has limited upward space in the short term and may decline [18]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol returns significantly, and the demand slows down. It will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber follows the polyester sector and fluctuates weakly. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high [18][19]. Methanol - The fundamental situation of methanol deteriorates, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 01 contract can be considered for long positions [19]. PP - The supply pressure of PP increases, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price center is expected to move down [19]. LLDPE - The demand for LLDPE is in the off - season, and the inventory increases. The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the long - term price center may move down [19]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The export inspection volume of US soybeans is lower than expected, and the压榨 volume is expected to decline. The future of Sino - US soybean trade relations will directly affect US soybeans [20]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are under pressure, and the risk of downward pressure on soybean meal and rapeseed meal increases. The consumption of rapeseed meal in the peak season is far from expected, and the inventory is slow to decline [21][22]. Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - The supply and demand of soybean oil are loose, and the price difference is weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil is slow to decline, and the policy premium support weakens [23]. Palm Oil - The inventory of palm oil is repaired, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term. However, the export demand may be supported [24]. Corn - Affected by factors such as the substitution of new wheat and the auction of imported corn, the corn market is under pressure. However, there is still a risk of rebound after the over - decline [25]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs increases, and the pig price is under pressure at a high level. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term [25].

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The expiration of the tariff suspension period has cooled global risk appetite. The US tax - cut bill has been passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index. In China, the PMI data in June continued to rise, and domestic consumption policies and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and the appreciation of the RMB have also improved market sentiment [2]. - The overall view on asset classes is that the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with cautious long positions recommended; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious observation recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound from low - level fluctuations, with cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate strongly, with cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are expected to fluctuate, with cautious observation; precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious long positions [2]. Group 2: Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as cross - border payment, gaming, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The recovery of China's June PMI data, strengthened domestic consumption policies, and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and RMB appreciation have also improved market sentiment. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward momentum has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The precious metals market oscillated last week. With the Middle - East cease - fire agreement, the focus shifted to the Russia - Ukraine war, and overall risk cooled in the short term. The approaching tariff deadline and the US - Vietnam agreement have increased optimistic tariff expectations. However, trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing. The better - than - expected non - farm data has cooled the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the rebound of US bond yields has suppressed gold prices. The "Big Beautiful Act" will increase debt pressure, providing long - term support for gold. The tariff negotiation situation will be the main short - term influencing factor, and the volatility of gold is expected to rise in the short term [5]. Group 4: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, but trading volume remained low. Overseas, tariff policies need attention; domestically, the "anti - involution" policy is a factor. The news of Tangshan's production restrictions led to a rebound in the futures market, increasing speculative demand, but the off - season still affected terminal demand. On the supply side, the impact of production - restriction policies emerged, with a 1.44 - million - ton week - on - week decline in hot - metal production, while the output of finished products still increased slightly. Cost support remained strong. The steel market is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. Hot - metal production decreased by 1.44 million tons last week after two consecutive weeks of rebound, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. In terms of supply, the shipping volume decreased by 149 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 178 million tons. Although the second and third quarters are the peak shipping seasons, the shipping volume may decline after the end - of - quarter rush. The port inventory increased by 46.67 million tons. Iron ore is expected to be strong in the short term due to macro factors but may decline in the medium term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday. The output of five major steel products increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded slightly, driving up the spot price of manganese ore. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased by 1.13% to 40.34%, and the daily output increased by 125 tons. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is being depleted slowly, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly in the short term. The silicon iron and silicon manganese markets are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Tariff news is uncertain. Although Trump threatened higher tariffs, it may be a negotiation strategy. The US is likely to impose at least a 10% tariff in the long run. The non - farm data was better than expected, but the private - sector employment slowed, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts cooled. In 2025, China's refined copper output continued to increase. From January to May, the copper output reached 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. After excluding sample expansion, the increase was still 6.7%. Despite high production, the copper inventory is in good condition, at a relatively low level [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fell slightly last Friday, affected by the overall decline in commodities. The weighted open interest of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 7654 lots. The LME inventory continued to increase. Domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods started to accumulate inventory, indicating the end of the de - stocking phase. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase, following the seasonal trend. The warehouse receipts increased significantly [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The industry has entered the off - season, with weak growth in manufacturing orders. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported the price of cast aluminum alloy from the cost side. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 7.13% for two consecutive weeks, although still at a relatively low level. The supply from Myanmar's Wa State is becoming more relaxed. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry, an important downstream of tin solder, is in the off - season, with a decrease in orders. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak, and the demand for tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals is stable. As the tin price rises, the downstream is hesitant to buy, and the inventory increased by 658 tons this week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be restricted in the medium term due to high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and declining demand [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - On the supply side, there is a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted the macro - sentiment, and the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated strongly. The price of lithium ore has rebounded significantly, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high due to reduced smelting losses. On the demand side, the output of power cells decreased in June, but the output of energy - storage cells increased significantly. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and batteries increased. The current price is close to the cost of mica - integrated production, providing strong cost support [11]. Industrial Silicon - There are short - term positive impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The start - up rate in the southwest increased last week, but the number of open furnaces in the north decreased, leading to a decline in weekly output. The "anti - involution" theme has boosted expectations [11]. Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, driven by the production cut of industrial silicon and the "anti - involution" theme. Due to high industry concentration, the price has greater elasticity. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continue to decline [12]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased daily production by 548,000 barrels, and with continued production growth in South America in the second half of the year, the downward trend of oil prices is more certain. Although the short - term spot price has not been clearly affected by over - supply, it may be supported in the short term, but refinery profits may be affected after the peak - season profit period, and purchasing willingness may decline [13]. Asphalt - The oil price is running at a low level, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the factory inventory is being depleted slowly. The basis has rebounded, and the social inventory has limited accumulation. As the demand approaches the peak season, the inventory depletion situation needs to be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the oil price in the short term [14]. PX - After the premium of crude oil was reversed, the strong trend of PX changed, and the overseas price weakened to $840. The PXN spread reached $250, and the industry profit declined significantly. The recovery of PTA's start - up rate will provide some support for PX, and the weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of its downstream [14]. PTA - The tightness of the spot market has been significantly relieved, the port inventory has increased, and the basis has declined. The downstream start - up rate has continued to decline to 90.2%. There is still room for the downstream start - up rate to decline, and with the downward trend of crude oil prices due to production increases, the PTA price still has some downward space [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory has been depleted to 540,000 tons. The overall start - up rate has declined, reducing supply pressure. However, the continuous decline of the downstream start - up rate will restrict further inventory depletion. The factory inventory is still being depleted steadily. It is expected to bottom out and follow the polyester sector to operate weakly in the short term [14]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a callback in the short - fiber price. It generally follows the polyester sector to fluctuate strongly. Terminal orders are still average, and the start - up rate continues to decline. The inventory of short - fiber remains high, and inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand in late July. With the weakening cost support, it will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern following the polyester sector in the medium term [15]. Methanol - There are maintenance activities in the inland area, and the arrival volume has decreased. Downstream olefins have maintenance plans. Before the implementation of maintenance, the spot price has some support. The international start - up rate has increased significantly, and the import expectation has risen again, and the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen. It has rebounded slightly under policy disturbances, but the upside is limited, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [15]. PP - There are both maintenance and new - capacity releases, slightly relieving the supply pressure. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to decline. The crude oil price fluctuates weakly, and the profit of oil - based production is fair. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the price is expected to decline further after the new - capacity release [16][17]. LLDPE - The number of device maintenance has increased, but the overall output is higher than the same period last year. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to weaken. The balance sheet shows an expected inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. There is still room for cost - profit compression [18]. Group 7: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The pricing of the US soybean planting area is settled, and the weather during the key growing period from July to August is crucial. The current hot and humid environment in the US soybean - growing areas is conducive to crop growth, and the probability of extreme drought is low. The market's expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the July USDA supply - demand report. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has supported the US soybean market. The export expectation has improved with positive trade news between China and the US, and the balance - sheet pressure has been further reduced. The CBOT soybean is expected to remain in a stable range [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - start - up rate of oil mills has maintained a stable supply of soybean meal, and the market sentiment is weak. The average monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from July to September in China may be around 1.1 million tons, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve within the 09 - contract period. The short - term stable trend of US soybeans provides some support. The positive news of China - US soybean trade has limited impact on the upward movement of futures prices. In the fourth quarter, the import premium of soybeans and the basis of domestic soybean meal are expected to remain weak. The upward space of soybean meal within the 09 - contract period is limited [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has extended the clean - fuel production tax credit to 2029, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil. In China, the rapeseed oil port inventory is high, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The soybean oil inventory is accelerating its recovery, and the risk of inventory accumulation is increasing. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil markets lack independent market - moving factors in the short term and are affected by palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price remains inverted [20][21]. Palm Oil - OPEC+'s planned production increase in August may put pressure on the oil peak season, limiting the boost to international oils. In Malaysia, the production in June decreased by about 4% month - on - month, and the export may increase by 4% - 6% month - on - month. The inventory may shrink to less than 2 million tons. The positive export data in July has boosted market sentiment, but the long - term production increase and the pressure on oil prices are the main limiting factors. In China, the palm oil storage has increased, and the basis is weak. The import profit is in an inverted state, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound and strong trend [21]. Corn - The grassroots price of corn is firm, and the basis is strong. The auction of imported corn had a slightly high premium and good transactions, with limited impact on the production area. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and there are more shutdowns for maintenance during the off - season. Feed enterprises are using more wheat as a substitute for corn, putting pressure on the corn price in Shandong. In July, the import of corn and the substitution of wheat may affect the futures price negatively. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption in August - September, the postponed demand will return, and the corn price is likely to rise [22]. Pork - Leading enterprises have a low willingness to increase production and reduce weight for export. The supply in July is expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the profit expectation for the peak season in August - September is low. The cost of secondary fattening has increased significantly, and the willingness to restock is low. A large - scale concentrated supply of second - fattened pigs is expected in late July and late August, which will limit the upward space of pig prices. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price is expected to decline slightly in the next period [22].