2025/5/6 09:55 【国富棕榈油研究周报】产地供应预期转宽松，棕榈油价格下⾏ 20250506 【国富棕榈油研究周报】产地供应预期转宽松，棕榈油价格下行 20250506 2025年05月06日 07:47 上海 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3x1d-Yrn_rLIKwOPjo8gYg 1/16 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í i | 产区天气 . | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | ιί | 国际供需 | | 1. | 马棕4月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | | 1. 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 8 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | 3. | FOB 报价 ... | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3x1d-Yrn_rLIKwOPjo8gYg 2/16 20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Recent Market Review of Oils and Fats - Since April, Trump's trade policy has caused global commodity turmoil. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly due to pessimistic expectations, driving down the overall price of vegetable oils. High-frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, but the high-frequency export data in the early April was good. The market expects that India and other regions may be replenishing their inventories, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April is still at a relatively low level. The price of US soybean oil was strong in April because the domestic inventory of US soybean oil was low, and the US biodiesel policy is expected to significantly increase the consumption of soybean oil. Supported by these two factors, the price of oils and fats has stabilized and fluctuated [4] 2. The Export of Malaysian Palm Oil in April May Fall Short of Expectations, and the Increase in Production and Accumulation of Inventory May Drive Down the Price of Oils and Fats - The latest high-frequency data in April shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.03% month-on-month in the first 30 days of April, and the production in April may reach the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The export increased by 3.6%-5.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous recovery trend. If the apparent consumption is estimated at 350,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of April may be around 1.75 million tons. If the abnormally high apparent consumption of 450,000 tons in March is considered, the inventory at the end of April may be around 1.65 million tons. Against the background of a significant recovery in production, if the demand countries slow down the pace of inventory replenishment, the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil will accelerate. The valuation of Malaysian palm oil is usually related to crude oil and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is usually inversely proportional to POGO, and this inverse relationship has become more obvious in recent years with the increase in the blending ratio of biofuels. From the perspective of the data relationship, if the inventory of Malaysian palm oil recovers to the level of 1.7 million tons, the spread usually drops to around $200/ton, while the current spread level is $400/ton. Therefore, against the background that the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil may reach the level of 1.7 million tons, there may be room for the price of oils and fats to decline in the future [5] 3. The US Biodiesel Policy May Be Bullish in the Medium Term, but the Short-Term Supply Pressure Still Needs to Be Released - In the previous WeChat official account post, it was believed that for palm oil to show a clear upward or downward trend in the future, new drivers are needed from crude oil, production, and demand. There are two scenarios. The first scenario is that the production recovers significantly in April and May, leading to the expectation of inventory accumulation; or the price of crude oil drops significantly, resulting in a decrease in demand and impaired valuation; or a combination of the two, triggering a significant decline scenario. The second scenario is that the production of palm oil fails to increase before July, just meeting the demand. The macroeconomy stabilizes, and there are weather problems in the planting of soybeans and rapeseed, which is likely to lead to a high-level oscillation scenario. Currently, the first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The market is discussing the bullish factors of the supply-side reduction in rapeseed production in Europe and the low inventory of rapeseed in the producing areas, as well as the demand-side US soybean oil biodiesel policy. Due to the low average temperature in Europe, the growth period of rapeseed is longer, and the drought in the early stage reached a historical level. However, the recent rainfall has recovered, and the extent of the production reduction still needs further verification. According to the data of Statistics Canada, the exportable inventory of Canadian rapeseed is almost exhausted, while according to the data of USDA, there is still a certain amount of export. The recent continuous increase in the futures price also reflects the tight supply of rapeseed in the country. However, the inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is relatively high. Under the situation that the palm oil producing areas are actively reducing prices and the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, the difficulty of destocking domestic rapeseed oil in the future also needs to be tested. The US soybean oil biodiesel policy is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil by 500,000-1 million tons per year due to the expected increase in the blending obligation, but the specific details and the use of foreign raw materials still need to be determined by the official, which is expected to be established at some point this year. Overall, the recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [8][9]

文字早评 2025/05/06 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.23%，创指+0.83%，科创 50+0.85%，北证 50+2.96%，上证 50-0.47%，沪深 300-0.12%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.79%，中证 2000+1.29%，万得微盘+1.41%。两市合计成交 11693 亿，较上 一日+1472 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、商务部：美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来，对此，中方正在评估。节日期间离岸人民币大涨。 2、据新华社，"五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 6.3%。 3、美国 4 月非农就业人口增长 17.7 万人，大幅好于预期。 资金面：融资额-13.51 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+21.90bp 至 1.7600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.54bp 至 3.0966%，十年期国债利率+0.03bp 至 1.6279%，信用利差-1.57bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率+8.00bp 至 4.33%，中美利差-7.97bp 至-270bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.21，中证 500: ...

MPOB 4月月报前瞻：4月马棕油库存预计为179万吨 金十期货5月5日讯，据外媒报道，路透调查显示，预计马来西亚2025年4月棕榈油库存为179万吨，环比 3月份增长14.8%；产量预计为162万吨，比3月份增长16.9%；出口量预计为110万吨，比3月份增长 9.7%。 ...

外盘方面，美豆同样受到关税战影响先抑后扬，产量方面则缺乏炒作题材，月底美国生物燃料政策的传闻一定程度扰动了市场，本 月CBOT大豆期货小幅收涨，但美豆仍在盘区运行；国际棕榈油方面，原油下挫对棕榈油打击不小，外加印尼B40计划无实质进展以及出口 表现疲软，马棕油持续偏弱运行，本月马棕油期货下跌近10%。 数据来源：wind、金石期货研究所 冯子悦 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 一、行情回顾 行情回顾 4月国内油脂表现动荡，由于中美贸易战超预期升级，对全球经济的担忧情绪重挫大宗商品市场，月初油脂大幅下挫。之后市场恐慌 情绪逐步缓和，且国内豆油库存降至同期低位，短期供应的收紧对整体油脂价格形成支撑，但随着进口大豆大量到港通关以及油厂开机 率逐步回升，月底油脂再次回落，本月豆油期货收跌近2%；棕榈油方面，低库存对价格形成一定支撑，连棕相较马棕更为抗跌，本月棕 榈油期货收跌近4%；菜籽油方面，国内菜籽油继续累库，但原料库存已经偏低，基本面近弱远强，本月菜籽油期货以窄幅震荡为主。 油脂月报（2025年4月） 供应拐点出现 关税扰动减弱 注册仓单量 | | 本月 | 上月 | 变 ...

| | | | | | | 油脂数据日报。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | 国贸期货出品 | | | 2025/04/30 | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | 农产品中心 | | | 期货从业证号 | 176 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | 24度棕榈油 | 证监会许可【2012】31号。 2025/04/29 | 2025/04/28 | 同分 杨璐琳 一口价变动 | | | F3042528 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | Z0015194 | | | | 一天津 张家港 | 9230 9030 | 9330 9130 | -100 -100 | 5000 4000 | | | | | | | | 黄浦 | 8980 | 9080 | -100 | 3000 2000 | | | | | | | | 级豆油 | 2025/04/29 | 2025/04/28 | 一口价变动 | 1000 | | | | | | | | 大津 ...

小K侃有色 . 我是小K，欢迎大家来扎营、吐槽，集股债商汇于一体，无分析不成文、无数学不乐趣的辣评集中营。 以下文章来源于小K侃有色 ，作者小K侃有色 文 | 小K侃有色 来源 | 小K侃有色 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 自4月2日对等关税以来大宗商品跳空暴跌8.88%（最高点到最低点），后随着90天暂停关税市场沿着关税缓和的路径修复了部分 下跌，目前自最低点上涨了3.92%，目前看跳空缺口修复无望。在此期间波动率快速收窄，技术上也面临20日均线的压制，静等 下一步指引。如果从板块上来看，工业品弱于农产品，工业品之于关税作用于需求远大于供给，农产品作用于供给远大于需求。 还有一个现象，这一波下跌实际上是压缩利润的，最明显的例子就是化工品相对于油品来说反弹是更弱的，扒开各个品种细分来 看也大致如此。 接下来大宗市场路向何方？我们也来唠一唠。 一、宏观上，今年也是宏观大年，不过相对于前两年来说是宏观利空年 国际货币基金组织(IMF)当地时间4月22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.8%，较今年1月 预测值低0.5个百分点。IMF预计，2026年全球经济将增 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 银河期货油脂日报 2025/4/28 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | 豆油 | 7814 | (120) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8244 | | | | 8214 | 8164 | | 400 | 0 430 | -20 | 350 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8174 | (202) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8804 | | | | 8764 | 9224 | | 630 | 0 590 | -20 | 1050 ...