Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is expected to continue into 2026, with indices likely to experience a volatile upward trend but with slower growth rates, leading investors to focus more on fundamental improvements and verification of economic conditions [1] Industry Insights - The technology sector may face structural and phase-specific pullback risks, while resource commodities are likely to emerge as a new main investment direction following the technology sector [1] - The ongoing comprehensive competition between China and the U.S. could significantly impact A-share investments, suggesting a strategic focus on future industries and key resources, particularly in military-related sectors [1] Key Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include: - New Energy - Non-ferrous Metals - Basic Chemicals - Oil and Petrochemicals - Non-bank Financials - Military Industry - Machinery Equipment - Computers [1] Thematic Focus - Important themes to consider are: - New Materials - Solid-state Batteries - Commercial Aerospace - Nuclear Power - Cross-Strait Integration [1]

公 司 报 告 股价:111.16元 行情走势图 证券分析师 计算机 中科曙光(603019.SH) 扣非净利润表现良好，发布超节点拥抱产业机遇 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 公司公告2025年三季报。2025年前三季度，公司实现营业收入88.20亿元，同 比增长9.68%，实现归母净利润9.66亿元，同比增长25.55%，实现扣非归母 净利润7.57亿元，同比增长70.17%。 平安观点： 公 司 季 报 点 评 HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 14,353 | 13,148 | 14,845 | 17,034 | 19,701 | | YOY(%) | 10.3 | -8.4 | 12.9 | 14.7 | 15.7 | | 净利润(百万元) | 1,836 | 1,911 | 2,387 | 2,950 | 3,631 | | YOY(%) | 18.9 | 4.1 | 24.9 | 23.6 ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 11 月 09 日 分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 杨逸帆(S0210124110046) yyf30689@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 电力、化工多主题走出右侧形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 电力、化工多主题走出右侧形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 2、25、25、5 只。其中，2 只见底形态的主题指数， 行业为交通运输、电力设备。25 只突破形态的主题指数，行业主要为计算 机、传媒、医药生物、国防军工。25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market will remain volatile under the backdrop of declining liquidity. The three - dimensional timing framework continues to predict a volatile decline. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is in a slow - rising trend and oscillating within a channel, with strong upper resistance and lower support [1][7]. - The power grid equipment theme index has seen significant inflows. In the past week, there were large inflows into the power grid equipment theme, communication equipment theme, etc., while the innovation energy, state - owned enterprise digital economy, etc. had the most outflows [1][25]. - Industries recommended based on capital resonance are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, construction, electric power and public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals [2][31]. - The high - volatility and high - liquidity style is dominant this week, with the liquidity factor achieving positive returns. Among Alpha factors, reversal and cash - flow factors perform well. In large - cap stocks, factors such as profit growth and analyst expectations are dominant, while in small - cap stocks, R & D intensity and growth factors perform better [2][39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Quantitative Views 3.1.1 Timing Viewpoint Liquidity is on a downward trend, divergence is on an upward trend, and the prosperity has rebounded again (financial sector up, industrial sector down). The three - dimensional timing framework maintains a judgment of volatile decline. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is in a slow - rising trend and oscillating within a channel, with no sign of breaking through the range [1][7]. 3.1.2 Index Monitoring By calculating the overall subscription/redemption shares of ETF products for each index, it was found that the power grid equipment theme had the largest inflow ratio in the past week, month, and three - month periods. The innovation energy, state - owned enterprise digital economy, etc. had the most outflows in the past week. The hot - trend strategy for ETFs includes industries such as photovoltaic semiconductors, environmental protection and new energy, energy and chemicals, and power grid equipment [25]. 3.1.3 Capital Flow Resonance The margin trading funds had the largest net inflow of 6249 million yuan in the power equipment and new energy sector last week, and the large - order funds had the largest net inflow of 1323 million yuan in the banking sector. This week, the recommended industries are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, construction, electric power and public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals [2][31]. 3.2 Factor Tracking 3.2.1 Style Factors The market this week shows the characteristics of "momentum continuation, high volatility, and high liquidity". The volatility factor and the liquidity factor both achieved positive returns, and the momentum factor also had a positive return [39]. 3.2.2 Alpha Factors - **By Time**: Recently, the reversal and cash - flow factors have performed well. The short - term reversal factor had the best performance in the past month, with a long - position excess return of 1.16% [43]. - **By Index**: In large - cap indexes such as the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, profit - growth and analyst - expectation factors are dominant. In small - cap indexes such as the CSI 1000, R & D intensity and growth factors perform better. As the market capitalization moves from the CSI 800 to the CSI 1000, the excess returns of most factors show an upward trend [45].

- The "A-Share Market Timing Model" evaluates the overall directional judgment of the A-share market using four dimensions: valuation, sentiment, funds, and technicals. The model generates daily signals with values of 0, ±1, representing neutral, bullish, and bearish views, respectively. The model's logic includes mean reversion for valuation and sentiment, and trend continuation for funds and technicals[2][9][15] - The "Style Timing Model" favors a barbell structure of dividend and small-cap styles. For the dividend style, the model uses the relative momentum of the CSI Dividend Index to the CSI All Share Index, the 10Y-1Y term spread, and the interbank pledged repo transaction volume. For the small-cap style, the model employs a trend model based on the difference in momentum and trading volume between small-cap and large-cap stocks[3][17][21] - The "Industry Rotation Model" uses genetic programming to directly extract factors from the volume, price, and valuation characteristics of industry indices. The model updates its factor library quarterly and rebalances weekly, selecting the top five industries with the highest multi-factor composite scores for equal-weight allocation[4][29][34] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" employs a macro factor risk parity framework, selecting four macro risk sources: growth above/below expectations and inflation above/below expectations. The model actively overweights favored quadrants based on macro expectation momentum, adjusting monthly[5][39][42] - The "A-Share Market Timing Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 36.03%, with an excess return of 8.86% over the Wind All A Index, which had a return of 27.18%[2][9] - The "Style Timing Model" for the dividend style yielded a year-to-date return of 25.04%, with an excess return of 7.83% over the benchmark, which had a return of 17.21%[17][20] - The "Style Timing Model" for the small-cap style achieved a year-to-date return of 78.29%, with an excess return of 30.25% over the benchmark, which had a return of 48.04%[22][27] - The "Industry Rotation Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 40.67%, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.96 percentage points[4][32] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" achieved a year-to-date return of 11.10%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.22, a maximum drawdown of 2.67%, and a Calmar ratio of 5.15[5][40][43]

Group 1 - The overall new stock sector continues to exhibit a fluctuating and differentiated trend, with local activity seeking relative value and new external driving forces [1][12] - The average increase of new stocks listed since 2024 is approximately -0.6%, with about 37.6% of new stocks achieving positive returns [1][6] - The current new stock sector is in a relatively chaotic tug-of-war phase between bulls and bears, with pricing and sentiment indicators showing signs of convergence but not yet reaching a stage low [1][12] Group 2 - Short-term expectations lean towards a structurally fluctuating market for new stocks, with differentiation remaining a key feature [2][12] - Specific sectors to focus on include new energy, new consumption, and non-ferrous chemicals, while also tracking long-term capital focus areas such as robotics, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][12] - The average issuance price-earnings ratio for new stocks in November is 50.6X, indicating a significant increase compared to previous months [30][31] Group 3 - Last week, there were 4 new stocks available for online subscription, with an average issuance price-earnings ratio of 33.3X and a subscription success rate of 0.0207% [4][21] - The average first-day increase for newly listed stocks was approximately 212%, with significant variations among individual stocks [4][23] - The average increase for newly listed stocks in the secondary market after the first day was about -19.8%, indicating potential pressure on stock prices [4][24] Group 4 - The stocks with the highest increases last week included Xidian New Energy (26.48%) and Weigao Blood Purification (17.74%), while the largest declines were seen in Heyuan Biology (-23.14%) and Daming Electronics (-20.93%) [26][27] - The upcoming new stocks include 4 that have completed subscription and are awaiting listing, with 1 stock set to undergo inquiry and 2 stocks opening for subscription [30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in October showed the characteristics of "warming CPI and improving PPI". The CPI turned from negative to positive year-on-year, and the core CPI reached a new high since March 2024. The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed, and the month-on-month increase was positive for the first time this year, reflecting the resonance of policies to expand domestic demand and the long - holiday effect, with both consumer and industrial product prices improving [1][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 10 - month CPI and PPI Data Overview - In October, the CPI was 0.2% year - on - year (previous value - 0.3%), 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%); the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year (previous value - 2.3%), 0.1% month - on - month (previous value 0.0%) [1][6] 2. Structural Highlights behind the Strong Core CPI - The continuous release of policies to expand domestic demand has increased residents' marginal propensity to consume and supported core prices. Under the "trade - in" policy, the prices of household appliances, cultural and entertainment durable goods, and household sundries increased by 2.4% - 5.0%, and the decline of fuel - powered car prices narrowed to 2.3% [2][7] - The "resilience" of service consumption is prominent. In October, service prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year, a major driver of the core CPI. Service consumption demand, represented by tourism and entertainment, continued to be released, and may gradually become a stabilizer for domestic demand growth. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, hotel accommodation, air ticket, and tourism prices increased by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively, higher than seasonal levels [2][7] - Affected by international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry prices increased by 50.3% year - on - year, supporting industrial consumer goods prices [2][7] 3. Reasons for the First Positive Month - on - Month PPI in October - Positive aspects: The increase in upstream raw material prices was mainly driven by a 0.1% month - on - month increase in production material prices. The improvement in supply - demand relationships led to price increases in some industries, such as a 1.6% month - on - month increase in the coal mining and washing industry. Some industries, like computers and lithium batteries, saw price increases due to improved supply - demand patterns supported by industrial upgrading policies. International price increases in non - ferrous metals were transmitted to the domestic market, driving a 2.4% month - on - month increase in the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry [3][8] - Areas to improve: The month - on - month price of consumer goods was flat, and the year - on - year price still decreased by 1.4%, indicating that the recovery of terminal consumer demand lagged behind that of the upstream. The positive month - on - month increase in upstream raw material prices but slow recovery of downstream demand may squeeze the profit margins of mid - and downstream enterprises [3][8] 4. Implications of the Widening CPI - PPI Gap - In October, the CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, and the gap was 2.3 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points wider than in September [4][9] - The year - on - year increase in CPI was mainly driven by service consumption and some industrial consumer goods, but this demand was not enough to fully absorb the industrial supply capacity, and industrial product prices were still in the negative range year - on - year. The widening gap means that the gross profit margins of mid - and downstream industries in the industrial chain, such as food processing, home appliances, and automobiles, are expected to improve [4][9]

核心结论 我们认为，谷歌已形成"模型（Gemini）+加速器（TPU）+数据中心网络 （OCS）+场景（搜索+广告+Android 终端）"的 AI 全栈闭环，在 AI 时代 谷歌通过自研 TPU 与 OCS 的协同，显著提升规模化推理与集群互联效率， 并将大模型能力深度嵌入搜索、Chrome 与 Cloud 平台，兑现为云业务订单 与资本开支的加速扩张。 谷歌的模型层以 Gemini 系列大模型为核心，持续迭代推进纯文本、多模态 及代码等能力。Gemini 2.5 Pro 模型展现了卓越的多模态处理（文本、图像、 音频、视频）、长上下文理解与推理、编程与代码生成、复杂任务执行等综 合能力。此外，在图像、视频及世界模型等垂直领域，谷歌也已推出 Nano Banana, Veo 3，Genie 3 等领先的模型。完善的模型布局及强大的模型能力， 叠加与谷歌生态的无缝融合，驱动了使用量的显著增长。截至 25Q3，Gemini APP 月活跃用户数已超过 6.5 亿。而截至 10 月份，模型 Token 的月度调用量 达到了1,300万亿，一年内实现超过20倍的增长。而谷歌的下一代模型Gemini 3 预计将于年底 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a current stock price of 26.29 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 77.322 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.41%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.24% to 1.404 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 5.15% to 1.460 billion yuan [3][6]. - The company's third-quarter revenue showed accelerated growth, with a year-on-year increase of 43.12% in Q3 alone, driven by the launch of new generation intelligent computing products and solutions [6][7]. - The subsidiary, Xinhua San, performed exceptionally well, achieving a revenue of 59.623 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 48.07% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.529 billion yuan, up 14.75% [6][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved quarterly revenues of 20.790 billion yuan, 26.635 billion yuan, and 29.897 billion yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.25%, 27.17%, and 43.12% [6]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 13.72%, a decrease of 3.87 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 96.630 billion yuan, 116.390 billion yuan, and 135.688 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.954 billion yuan, 2.460 billion yuan, and 3.046 billion yuan [5][8]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.68 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 1.07 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of approximately 38.5, 30.6, and 24.7 [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ICT infrastructure industry, leveraging its "computing power × connectivity" synergy to capitalize on opportunities in the AI computing market [6][7]. - The company is actively developing next-generation ultra-node products and liquid cooling technologies to meet the demands of high-density computing clusters and high-power chips [7]. Subsidiary Performance - Xinhua San's revenue for Q3 was 23.219 billion yuan, a 67.79% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.678 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 77% [6][7]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the company's integrated AI empowerment platform and strong international business growth will be significant drivers for future development [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights significant volatility in global risk assets due to concerns over tightening overseas liquidity and discussions surrounding an "AI bubble" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk assets have experienced substantial fluctuations this week, influenced by a lack of economic data, frequent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, and rising liquidity pressures in the money market due to government shutdown and fiscal constraints [1] - The strong dollar has suppressed global stock markets and commodity prices, with technology-heavy indices like Nikkei 225, Korean stock index, and Nasdaq leading the decline [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The probability of overseas liquidity tightening evolving into systemic risk is low, as solutions from the Federal Reserve and bipartisan negotiations to reopen the government are progressing, which may gradually alleviate external disturbances on risk appetite [2] - If the U.S. government shutdown ends as expected in mid-November and more economic data is released, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts will be recalibrated, potentially creating a window for global recovery [3] Group 3: AI Industry Analysis - The current discussions around the "AI bubble" have caused some disturbances in the domestic AI industry chain, but Industrial Securities believes that AI's empowerment of traditional industries is still in its early stages, making it incomparable to the internet bubble of 1999-2000 [4] - The development logic of the AI industry is clear, with major global tech companies continuously defining their AI strategies, and the fundamentals of leading companies in the U.S. stock market remain strong due to ongoing R&D investments and capital expenditures [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes AI as a key driver for national competition and technological innovation, indicating that the AI industry chain will be a focus area with favorable prospects next year [5] - The year-end market is seen as an important window for positioning in sectors expected to perform well in the coming year, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, and new consumption [6][7] - High-growth sectors expected to see net profit growth of over 30% next year include AI hardware, new energy, and military industries, while sectors with expected growth of 10%-30% include pharmaceuticals and AI downstream applications [7][8]