Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Iron Ore Daily Report dated October 13, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Black Research and Development [2] Group 2: Futures Market Data - DCE01 price is 804.5, up 9.5 from yesterday; DCE05 is 781.0, up 6.5; DCE09 is 759.0, up 6.0 [2] - I01 - I05 spread is 23.5, up 3.0; I05 - I09 is 22.0, up 0.5; I09 - I01 is -45.5, down 3.5 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - Various iron ore spot prices have increased slightly, e.g., PB powder (60.8%) is 782, up 5 from yesterday [2] - The optimal deliverable is Mac powder with a standard - grade equivalent price of 845 [2] - Spot price spreads such as Carajás - PB powder is 135, up 1; Newman - Jimbara is 24, unchanged [2] Group 4: Import Profit and Price Index - Import profits for most iron ore varieties have decreased, e.g., Carajás powder's import profit is 0, down 13 from yesterday [2] - The Platts Iron Ore 62% price is 107.4, up 1.6; 65% is 121.3, up 1.8; 58% is 95.9, up 1.3 [2][4] Group 5: Price Difference and Spread Data - SGX主力 - DCE01 is 9.0, up 1.0; SGX主力 - DCE05 is 11.6, up 1.1; SGX主力 - DCE09 is 14.3, up 1.2 [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite declines, and valuation is under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak reality combined with weakening expectations may lead to a slight correction in steel prices [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is filled with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with wide fluctuations [2][9] - Coke and coking coal: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, with weak fluctuations [2][13] - Logs: Weak fluctuations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the I 2601 futures contract was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The open interest was 476,191 lots, an increase of 16,626 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 924.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB fines (61.5%) was 790.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 760.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; and Super Special fines (56.5%) remained unchanged at 716.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Benxi ore (66%) was 946.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; and Laiwu ore (65%) was 864.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [4] - **Trend strength**: -1 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%; the HC2601 hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.37%. In terms of spot prices, rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Guangzhou. Hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [6] - **Macro and industry news**: In October 2025, the US announced additional 100% tariffs on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software. In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imports were 500,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%. According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 8, the output of rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil by 14,000 tons, and the total output of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; the total inventory of rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75-B in Inner Mongolia was 5,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 40.0 yuan/ton-degree, and the price of semi-coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton. The spot-futures price difference for ferrosilicon was -236 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; for silicomanganese, it was -80 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On October 10, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 80,100 tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 118,600 tons, in Fangchenggang decreased by 2,000 tons, and the total inventory increased by 27,900 tons [10] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,161 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.3%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,666.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Among spot coking coal prices, the prices of Linfen low-sulfur main coking coal, Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal self-pickup price, and Lvliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. The price of Peak Downs coking coal converted to RMB decreased by 1,650 yuan to 0 yuan/ton. Among spot coke prices, the prices of Hebei quasi-primary dry quenched coke, Shanxi quasi-primary delivered price, and Rizhao Port quasi-primary price index remained unchanged [13] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [14] - **Trend strength**: -1 for both coke and coking coal [14] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the 2511, 2601, and 2603 log futures contracts remained unchanged. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different degrees of change. Among spot log prices, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [16] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [18] - **Trend strength**: -1 [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, sentiment and the market are temporarily stable. Near - term industrial directional drivers are unclear, and the focus is on the release intensity of demand and marginal changes in supply - demand [3]. - For iron ore, the fundamentals have no contradictions for now. The short - term supply is not significantly affected, and over - supply may occur in the 4th quarter if there is no production cut [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the market risk preference is good, and the short - term adjustment needs to be verified by post - holiday industrial data. In the medium - to - long term, the policy impact on the supply side is expected to be positive [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, they mainly fluctuate following the sector in the short term, and there are still concerns in the medium term [3]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On October 9, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3159 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, HC2605 at 3293 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase, etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3096 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, HC2601 at 3286 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase [1]. - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2601 - 2605 at - 63 yuan/ton on October 9, also had corresponding changes [1]. - Spreads, ratios, and profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 190 yuan/ton on October 9, and the rebar's on - paper profit was - 93.08 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On October 9, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase, etc. [1]. - The basis, such as the HC主力 basis was 74 yuan/ton on October 9, also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Steel**: Seasonally, post - holiday first - phase industrial data is usually poor but will recover. Near - term industrial drivers are unclear, and future focus is on demand release and supply - demand changes [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The holiday increase was due to a rumor. Supply data is stable in the short term, and over - supply may occur in the 4th quarter if there is no production cut [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot market has mixed performance, and the futures market rebounded. The short - term adjustment needs verification, and the medium - to - long - term policy impact on supply is positive [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: They mainly follow the sector in the short term. There are supply - demand and inventory issues, and there are concerns in the medium term [3]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - For steel, suggest to wait and see on the single - side, and can participate in the reverse spread or wait in the basis dimension [3]. - For iron ore, suggest to wait and see [3]. - For coking coal and coke, suggest to wait and see on the single - side [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, suggest to short on rallies [3].

Core Insights - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 15 products experiencing price increases, 31 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices remained stable at 3184.1 yuan per ton, while wire rod increased by 13.7 yuan (0.4%) to 3331.3 yuan per ton. However, ordinary medium plates and hot-rolled ordinary plates saw declines of 5.2 yuan (-0.1%) and 16.4 yuan (-0.5%), respectively [4]. - For non-ferrous metals, electrolytic copper rose by 659.3 yuan (0.8%) to 81,210.0 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingots fell by 174.3 yuan (-0.8%) to 20,720.0 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products showed significant declines, with sulfuric acid dropping by 40.4 yuan (-5.9%) to 644.6 yuan per ton and caustic soda decreasing by 25.7 yuan (-2.9%) to 867.5 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices decreased by 23.2 yuan (-0.6%) to 3840.6 yuan per ton, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell by 23.0 yuan (-0.5%) to 4484.7 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices showed a mixed trend, with anthracite coal increasing by 47.9 yuan (5.5%) to 917.0 yuan per ton, while coking coal decreased by 14.3 yuan (-1.1%) to 1346.4 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural and Forestry Products - In agricultural products, the price of rice fell by 19.3 yuan (-0.5%) to 4001.7 yuan per ton, while wheat increased by 9.2 yuan (0.4%) to 2422.2 yuan per ton [5]. - The price of corn decreased by 4.0 yuan (-0.2%) to 2300.0 yuan per ton, and cotton prices dropped by 280.2 yuan (-1.9%) to 14,374.1 yuan per ton [5]. - In forestry products, natural rubber prices fell by 239.3 yuan (-1.6%) to 14,633.3 yuan per ton, while corrugated paper saw an increase of 31.3 yuan (1.1%) to 2812.0 yuan per ton [5].

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 10 月 09 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 790.5 | 780.5 | 10.0 | I01-I05 | 19.5 | 21.0 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 771.0 | 759.5 | 11.5 | I05-I09 | 20.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | | DCE09 | 750.5 | 740.5 | 10.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -40.0 | 0.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 770 | 771 | -1 | 839 | 50 | 71 | 90 | | 纽曼粉 | 774 | 775 | -1 | 834 | 46 | 67 | 86 | | 麦克粉 | 768 | 768 | 0 | 833 | 45 | 66 | ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market trends of various sectors during the National Day holiday in 2025, including macro - colored, energy and chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors. Most sectors show a complex situation of supply - demand imbalance, with some facing supply pressure and others having weak demand. Market trends are affected by factors such as policies, international macro - situations, and seasonal characteristics, and most sectors are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends [2][8][21]. Summary by Sector Macro - Colored Sector - **Stock Index**: A - share market showed strong growth before the holiday, up 6.7%, hitting a high since 1987. Policies are expected to attract incremental funds [2]. - **Copper**: International macro - situation fluctuates greatly due to the US government debt issue and political changes in other countries. Gold, silver, copper, and aluminum prices rise, while there are no major domestic changes [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the supply pressure is still large. Although LME zinc rebounds during the holiday, SHFE zinc is under pressure at high levels [3]. - **Lead**: LME lead fluctuates widely during the holiday. Domestic lead supply pressure increases, and demand in the peak season is not good, with a weak oscillatory trend expected [4]. - **Tin**: LME tin rises during the holiday. Supply is tight due to slow mine resumption in Myanmar and disruptions in Indonesia. The tight supply pattern is expected to continue until mid - month [5]. - **Gold and Silver**: Precious metals rise during the holiday, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and international macro - uncertainties. However, gold is in an overbought state [6]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **PTA**: Oil prices fall and then rebound during the holiday. PTA has low processing fees, weak cost support, and insufficient downstream demand, expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **MEG**: There are many changes in domestic and overseas devices. Supply pressure is large, and cost drive is poor, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are expected to oscillate weakly following raw materials, with limited processing fee improvement space [8][9]. - **Urea**: The market is weak during the holiday. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the market is expected to be under pressure [10]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market is stable during the holiday. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [11]. - **PVC**: There is a gap between policy expectations and fundamentals. Supply pressure is not relieved, demand is weak, and it is difficult to find positive factors [12]. - **Glass**: The market shows a trend of rising first and then falling. Supply may tighten, but demand is insufficient after the holiday, and fundamental positives are not sustainable [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is under pressure. The price lacks upward momentum in the long term [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but there is some support from alumina's demand expectations [15]. - **Rubber**: Typhoon may reduce supply, but terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. - **PX**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on downstream demand and profit changes [16][17]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices fall before the holiday. Downstream demand is not as expected, and there is an over - supply expectation [18]. - **Styrene**: Prices fall before the holiday. The market is in a wide - balance state with a tendency to accumulate inventory, and the weak situation is difficult to change after the holiday [19]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: US cotton prices fall during the holiday. Domestic cotton purchase is stable, but demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to have limited downward space after the holiday [21][22]. - **Sugar**: US raw sugar oscillates during the holiday. Production in some regions may increase, and Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but is under pressure [23]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rebound during the holiday. Domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybean harvest begins. Domestic production and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil may enter the production - reduction season early. Supply and demand are both affected, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Rapeseed Products**: Canadian rapeseed imports decrease, and domestic rapeseed oil production increases with inventory reduction, expected to oscillate [26]. - **Corn and Starch**: US corn oscillates slightly. Domestic supply may be affected by weather, and demand is strong. Corn prices may first fall and then rise [27]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices are low, and the breeding loss expands. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [28]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable during the holiday. High存栏 may lead to price pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to seasonal factors, but downstream demand is weak [29]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills' profitability decreases, but production and demand show different trends. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The market shows a small increase. Supply is stable, and demand has support, focusing on supply and demand changes [31]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand change little, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is weak and stable during the holiday. Supply and demand are both stable, and the market is expected to oscillate after the holiday [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply exceeds expectations, demand may decrease, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [33]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are weak and stable. They are expected to oscillate within a range after the holiday [33].

Core Viewpoint - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for September shows a continuous month-on-month increase, indicating optimistic business expectations and stable overall market performance [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index for September is 111.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with the growth rate compared to the previous month expanding by 0.5 percentage points [1]. - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 18 saw price increases in September, with notable rises in corrugated paper (6%), caustic soda (2.5%), and electrolytic copper (2.3%) [1]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - The increase in the non-ferrous metal price index is attributed to rising downstream demand from sectors like new energy and photovoltaics, as well as the commercialization of artificial intelligence across various fields [2]. - Conversely, the black metal and mineral price indices experienced a decline due to project construction delays caused by extreme weather conditions [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the traditional production peak in October, combined with effective government policies aimed at promoting growth, may lead to a continued stable and positive trend in the commodity market [4]. - However, challenges such as geopolitical tensions and trade disputes may hinder global economic recovery, necessitating further macroeconomic adjustments to stimulate innovation and unleash domestic demand [4].

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for September 2025 is reported at 111.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, indicating a stable overall operation in the commodity market [1][7] Price Index Overview - The non-ferrous price index rose to 131.8 points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [3] - The black metal price index decreased to 79.0 points, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3] Price Changes by Commodity - Among 50 monitored commodities, 18 saw price increases in September, with notable rises in corrugated paper (6%), caustic soda (2.5%), and electrolytic copper (2.3%) [6] - Conversely, carbon lithium, urea, and corn starch experienced the largest declines, with month-on-month decreases of 5.5%, 4.3%, and 3.3% respectively [6] Sector Analysis - The mineral price index showed low volatility at 70.4 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% [8] - The energy price index slightly declined to 98.0 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [8] - The chemical price index continued its downward trend at 100.0 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% [8] Market Dynamics - Analysts noted that the recovery in demand during the peak season was generally below expectations, contributing to the fluctuations in the mineral price index [9] - The energy price index's decline was attributed to reduced gasoline demand post-summer and adverse weather affecting construction projects [9] - The chemical sector faced pressure from weak market demand and the introduction of new production capacities [9]

Group 1 - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the Commodity Price Index for September was 111.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking five consecutive months of growth [1] - The year-on-year increase of 1.7% in the Commodity Price Index for September shows an expansion of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating better overall performance than the same period last year [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 18 saw price increases in September, with notable rises in corrugated paper (6%), caustic soda (2.5%), and electrolytic copper (2.3%) [1] Group 2 - The current period is characterized as a traditional production peak season in October, with expectations for the commodity market to maintain a stable and positive trend due to effective government policies aimed at promoting growth [2] - Despite the positive outlook, challenges such as geopolitical tensions and trade frictions continue to pose risks to global economic recovery, with some sectors still experiencing insufficient effective demand [2] - To solidify the economic recovery, there is a need for increased macroeconomic regulation to stimulate corporate innovation and unleash domestic demand potential [2]

Core Insights - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for September reached 111.9 points, marking a 0.2% month-on-month increase and indicating a stable overall performance in the commodity market [1] - The year-on-year increase of 1.7% in the commodity price index shows an improvement compared to the previous month, reflecting a positive trend in the market [1] Industry Analysis - In September, 18 out of 50 monitored commodities experienced price increases, with notable rises in corrugated paper (6%), caustic soda (2.5%), and electrolytic copper (2.3%) [1] - The current October period is characterized as a traditional peak production season, with expectations for continued stability and growth in the commodity market due to effective government policies aimed at promoting growth [3] - The non-ferrous metal price index is rising due to increased downstream demand from sectors like new energy and photovoltaics, as well as the commercialization of artificial intelligence [4] - Conversely, the black metal and mineral price indices have seen a decline due to project construction delays caused by extreme weather conditions [4]