Group 1 - The banking sector received significant attention from main funds, with a net inflow of 4.298 billion yuan during the week from January 5 to January 9 [1] - The media, oil and petrochemical, and coal sectors also attracted main fund investments [1] - The electronics sector faced substantial selling pressure, with over 26 billion yuan in net outflows [1] Group 2 - Among individual stocks, XianDao Intelligent saw the highest net inflow of 1.216 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 16.85% [1] - YunNan ZheYe and BOE Technology Group also experienced notable net inflows of 1.071 billion yuan and 1.068 billion yuan, respectively [1] - In contrast, ZhongJi XuChuang, XinYiSheng, and LiXun Precision faced significant net outflows of 8.243 billion yuan, 5.632 billion yuan, and 3.866 billion yuan, respectively [1]

Group 1 - The banking sector attracted significant net inflow of 4.298 billion yuan during the week from January 5 to January 9 [1] - The media, oil and petrochemical, and coal sectors also received attention from major funds [1] - The electronics sector experienced a substantial net outflow exceeding 26 billion yuan, indicating a trend of selling pressure [1] Group 2 - Leading stocks included XianDao Intelligent with a net inflow of 1.216 billion yuan and a weekly increase of 16.85% [1] - Yunnan Zhenye and BOE Technology Group saw net inflows of 1.071 billion yuan and 1.068 billion yuan, respectively [1] - On the outflow side, stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, and Luxshare Precision faced significant sell-offs of 8.243 billion yuan, 5.632 billion yuan, and 3.866 billion yuan, respectively [1]

Group 1 - Market sentiment is steadily recovering, with the sentiment indicator reaching 1.6 as of January 9, up from 1.35 the previous week, indicating a bullish outlook from a sentiment perspective [8][12] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market increased significantly by 34.00% week-on-week, reaching an average of 28,519.51 billion yuan, with January 9 marking a recent high of 31,523.68 billion yuan [16][19] - The industry score trends show that sectors such as pharmaceuticals, coal, real estate, media, and environmental protection have seen upward trends in short-term scores, with defense and military industries scoring the highest at 100 [41][42] Group 2 - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price fluctuations is high at 0.37, indicating that sectors with high congestion, such as defense and petrochemicals, have experienced significant gains, while sectors like retail and non-bank financials, despite high congestion, have shown lower price increases [44][47] - The current model indicates a preference for small-cap and value styles, with the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI continuing to rise, suggesting potential for enhanced signals in the future [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from January 5th to January 9th, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 4.31%. Among broad-based ETFs, the median return of Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs was 10.15%, the highest. By sector, the median return of technology ETFs was 7.28%, the highest. By theme, the median return of military industry ETFs was 13.50%, the highest [1][12][16]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 803 million yuan, but the overall scale increased by 18.0114 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, CSI 500 ETF had the largest net subscription of 3.648 billion yuan; by sector, cyclical ETFs had the largest net subscription of 13.524 billion yuan; by hot theme, pharmaceutical ETFs had the largest net subscription of 892 million yuan [2][28][31]. - As of last Friday, among broad-based ETFs, ChiNext and SSE 50 ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; by sector, large financial and consumer ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; by sub - theme, wine and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 1000, Science and Technology Innovation Board, consumer, and pharmaceutical ETFs increased significantly [3][34][38]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.967 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.697 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.394 billion shares in the previous week to 2.42 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs in terms of average daily margin buying volume and short - selling volume, securities ETFs and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had relatively high average daily margin buying volumes, and SSE 50 ETFs and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [4][44][48]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine ranked top three in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs among fund companies. This week, 9 ETFs will be issued, including Penghua China Securities Consumer Electronics Theme ETF, Yin Hua S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low - Volatility Dividend ETF, etc. [5][52][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - Last week, the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 4.31%. The median returns of Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, CSI 1000, A500, ChiNext, SSE 50, and SSE 300 ETFs were 10.15%, 7.89%, 7.05%, 4.22%, 3.87%, 3.38%, and 2.78% respectively. The median returns of commodity, cross - border, monetary, and bond ETFs were 2.92%, 2.55%, 0.02%, and - 0.01% respectively [12]. - By sector, the median returns of technology, consumer, cyclical, and large financial sector ETFs among equity ETFs last week were 7.28%, 4.95%, 4.15%, and 1.82% respectively [16]. - By hot theme, the median returns of military industry, chip, and AI ETFs among equity ETFs were 13.50%, 11.17%, and 8.51% respectively, showing relatively strong performance; the median returns of bank, dividend, and securities ETFs were - 1.88%, 1.62%, and 1.91% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 398.11 billion yuan, 101.07 billion yuan, and 76.46 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and monetary ETFs were relatively small, at 26.47 billion yuan and 16.21 billion yuan respectively [20]. - Among broad - based ETFs, SSE 300 and A500 ETFs had relatively large scales of 122.08 billion yuan and 29.96 billion yuan respectively, while the scales of Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and ChiNext ETFs were relatively small [20]. - By sector, as of last Friday, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 47.09 billion yuan, followed by cyclical sector ETFs with a scale of 24.83 billion yuan. The scales of large financial and consumer ETFs were relatively small [26]. - By hot theme, as of last Friday, the scales of chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs were the highest, at 16.17 billion yuan, 14.31 billion yuan, and 10.88 billion yuan respectively [26]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 803 million yuan, and the overall scale increased by 18.0114 billion yuan; monetary ETFs had a net redemption of 1.0539 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 1.0525 billion yuan [28]. - Among broad - based ETFs, CSI 500 ETF had the largest net subscription of 3.648 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 1.8996 billion yuan; A500 ETF had the largest net redemption of 1.3087 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 59.5 million yuan [28]. - By sector, last week, cyclical ETFs had the largest net subscription of 13.524 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 2.9669 billion yuan; technology ETFs had the largest net redemption of 763 million yuan, and its scale increased by 3.5292 billion yuan [31]. - By hot theme, last week, pharmaceutical ETFs had the largest net subscription of 892 million yuan, and its scale increased by 893.9 million yuan; AI ETFs had the largest net redemption of 538.9 million yuan, and its scale decreased by 9.2 million yuan [31]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the quantile levels of 89.27%, 90.68%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 66.50%, and 99.74% respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the quantile levels of 73.68%, 75.83%, 100.00%, 79.37%, 67.90%, and 99.74% respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios of Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs are at the quantile levels of 92.00% and 79.79% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 1000 and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs increased significantly [34][36]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the quantile levels of 87.54%, 29.87%, 37.87%, and 98.43% respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the quantile levels of 83.91%, 57.34%, 45.26%, and 96.04% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of consumer ETFs increased significantly [38]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings quantiles of military industry, photovoltaic, and chip ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 99.75%, and 98.60% respectively; the price - to - book quantiles of AI, robot, and dividend ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 98.93%, and 98.35% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of pharmaceutical ETFs increased significantly [39][42]. ETF Margin Trading - Overall, the short - selling volume of equity ETFs has maintained an upward trend in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.967 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.697 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.394 billion shares in the previous week to 2.42 billion shares [44]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, among the top 10 equity ETFs in terms of average daily margin buying volume, securities ETFs and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had relatively high average daily margin buying volumes [48]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, among the top 10 equity ETFs in terms of average daily short - selling volume, SSE 300 ETFs and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [50]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs; E Fund ranked second, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs; Huatai - Peregrine Fund ranked third, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [52]. - Last week, 2 new ETFs were established, namely Guangfa China Securities Industrial Software Theme ETF and ICBC ChiNext New Energy ETF. This week, 9 ETFs will be issued, including Penghua China Securities Consumer Electronics Theme ETF, Yin Hua S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low - Volatility Dividend ETF, etc. [55].

多图速览>> 本周（1月5日至9日）三大指数均累计上涨，沪指涨3.82%，深成指涨4.40%，创业板指涨3.89%。科创综指涨10.19%。 | 指数 | 周五涨跌幅 | 周五收盘点数 | 周五成交额(亿元) | 近一周涨跌幅 | स्ट | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 0.92% | 4120 | 12892 | 3.82% | | | 深证成指 | 1.15% | 14120 | 18335 | 4.40% | | | 北证50 | 1.05% | 1524 | 298 | 5.82% | 5 | | 科创50 | 1.43% | 1476 | 910 | 9.80% | | | 创业板指 | 0.77% | 3328 | 8721 | 3.89% | 3 | | 下证50 | 0.39% | 3134 | 1777 | 3.40% | | | 沪深300 | 0.45% | 4759 | ୧୧୫୫ | 2.79% | | ►牛熊股：7股涨超60%，最牛股周涨近150% Wind数据显示，本周（1月5日至1月9日）共有7只个股涨幅超60%， ...

- The report introduces a **market timing system** based on the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index. The system identifies market trends by observing whether the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute difference exceeds 3%. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6394 and the 120-day moving average at 6142, with a difference of 4.10%, indicating an upward trend[6][11]. - The **profitability effect** is used as a core indicator to assess market conditions. The current profitability effect is 5.28%, which is significantly positive, suggesting that the market is likely to continue its upward trend[6][11]. - The **industry trend allocation model** highlights sectors with strong upward trends, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, computing power, industrial metals, and energy storage. Additionally, the **mid-term reversal expectation model** signals opportunities in media and innovative healthcare sectors[6][11]. - The **TWO BETA model** recommends focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI applications and commercial aerospace[6][11]. - The **valuation metrics** for the WIND All A Index show that the PE ratio is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, reflecting a moderate valuation level. Based on these metrics and the market trend, the allocation model suggests an 80% equity position for absolute return products[7][11]. - Backtesting results for the market timing system show that the WIND All A Index increased by 5.11% over the past week, with small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) rising by 7.03%, mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) by 7.92%, and large-cap indices (HS300 and SSE50) by 2.79% and 3.4%, respectively. Sector-wise, defense and media performed strongly, with defense rising by 14.56%, while banking and transportation lagged, with banking declining by 1.88%[2][5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing active mergers and acquisitions, with 22 companies disclosing progress in their restructuring efforts this week, indicating a robust trend in corporate consolidation and strategic realignment [1]. Group 1: Mergers and Acquisitions Activity - 22 A-share listed companies have disclosed merger and acquisition progress this week, including notable firms such as 德福科技, 交运股份, 法尔胜, and others [1]. - 格利尔 announced a change in its actual controller to the Fengyang County Finance Bureau, resulting in a stock price surge of 29.99% [1][2]. - 观想科技 plans to acquire 100% of 辽晶电子 through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with its stock price hitting a 20% limit up [3]. Group 2: Specific Transactions - 德福科技 intends to acquire at least 51% of 慧儒科技 through cash and capital increase [2]. - 交运股份 is planning to swap its passenger vehicle sales and related assets with assets from its controlling shareholder in the entertainment sector [2]. - 法尔胜 is selling a 10% stake in 贝卡尔特钢帘线 to a Hong Kong company for 1.61 billion yuan, marking a significant asset restructuring [6]. - 中化装备 is set to acquire 100% of 益阳橡机 and 蓝星北化机 for 12.02 billion yuan, enhancing its capabilities in the rubber machinery and chemical equipment sectors [5]. - 浙矿股份 is acquiring 100% of Alaigyr company, which owns a lead-silver mine in Kazakhstan, to strengthen its resource sector presence [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The stock prices of several companies involved in mergers and acquisitions have shown significant increases, with 观想科技 and 浙矿股份 both experiencing limit up days following their announcements [3][5]. - The overall trend indicates a positive market sentiment towards companies engaging in strategic mergers and acquisitions, reflecting investor confidence in future growth prospects [1].

Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The A-share market has shown significant gains this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component up 4.40%, the ChiNext Index up 3.89%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index up 10.19% [1] - Institutions expect the market's momentum to continue in the short term, but caution is advised regarding a potential cooling period after mid-January leading up to the Spring Festival [1] - The improvement in market liquidity has been a direct driver of the A-share rally since late December 2025, with a notable increase in margin trading balances and overall trading volume [3] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with different sectors favored depending on market style (growth vs. defensive) [1] - The commercial aerospace sector has seen substantial gains and remains a focus for investors, despite potential profit-taking pressures [2] - The robotics sector has attracted significant capital inflow, indicating strong investor interest, while the commercial aerospace sector is transitioning to a "theme expansion" phase [4] - Recommendations include focusing on resources and traditional manufacturing sectors, with an emphasis on enhancing pricing power [6]

Domestic Economic Indicators - December PPI exceeded expectations, recording a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, the highest growth rate of the year[1] - January PPI is expected to narrow significantly to around -1.2% year-on-year[1] Overseas Economic Indicators - U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.6%, with non-farm payrolls adding 50,000 jobs in December, diminishing expectations for a Fed rate cut in January[1][16] - Trump plans to increase the U.S. defense budget by 50% to $1.5 trillion by 2027[1][16] Currency and Asset Market Insights - The central bank emphasized "preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations," with the probability of the RMB breaking 7 earlier than expected increasing[1] - If the RMB maintains strength, Hong Kong stocks may enter a favorable performance period[1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - From January 4 to 9, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 14,550 billion CNY through reverse repos, with a 7-day reverse repo injection of 1,387 billion CNY[2][17] - The average funding rates for various instruments decreased, with DR001 down 0.4273 basis points to 1.2670%[3][18] Government Debt Financing - Local government debt net financing reached 1176.64 billion CNY, while national debt net financing was 4950 billion CNY, totaling 6126.64 billion CNY[19] - Upcoming planned issuance for local government bonds is 702.01 billion CNY and national bonds is 1670 billion CNY, with a net financing of approximately -3299.39 billion CNY expected[19] Market Performance Overview - A-share market showed strong bullish sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82%[32] - The Hang Seng Index demonstrated clear signs of bottom rebound, increasing by 2.35%[32]

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 | 观点回顾 4 | | --- | | 大势与风格 5 | | 中观行业与景气 7 | | 一周市场总览、组合表现及热点追踪 9 | | 风险提示 10 | tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 11 ...