专题：2026年邮政金融论坛暨中邮证券策略报告会 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2025年12月3日，"2026年邮政金融论坛暨中邮证券策略报告会"在北京举行。中邮证券副总裁、首席经 济学家黄付生作《中国市场：渐入佳境》专题报告并发布全球资产配置观点。黄付生认为，2026年中国 权益市场将进入"长周期、结构性牛市"，债券市场转入震荡，大宗商品超级周期或逐步开启，全球资产 配置焦点将向中国倾斜。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：杨赐 专题：2026年邮政金融论坛暨中邮证券策略报告会 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2025年全球大类资产普涨，中国权益潜力巨大。2025年前11个月全球主要资产呈现"除比特币外全面上 涨"态势，其中，韩国综合指数、COMEX黄金涨幅均超60%，沪深300、恒生指数等涨幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Luohu District has officially released measures to promote high-quality development of the port economy, aiming to create a distinctive port economic belt that integrates trade, inbound consumption, demonstration scenarios, and talent exchange. Group 1: Measures Overview - The measures consist of 12 key initiatives across four main areas: industrial development, cross-border consumption, technological innovation, and cultural exchange [2]. - The port economy aims to attract high-value-added products and bulk commodity trade headquarters, develop a digital supply chain platform, and promote cross-border e-commerce [2][3]. Group 2: Trade and Consumption - In goods trade, the focus is on attracting high-value products and establishing a digital supply chain, while in service trade, the goal is to introduce financial institutions and knowledge-intensive service enterprises [2]. - The measures emphasize enhancing cross-border consumption by introducing international flagship stores, developing high-end medical and health management products, and improving cross-border payment systems [2][3]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The measures propose the establishment of an AI digital human at the port, promoting services like biometric recognition and smart guidance, and exploring AI applications in customer service and cross-border consumer rights protection [3]. - The low-altitude economy will be developed through drone logistics and high-value low-altitude transportation, optimizing tourism products and creating new business models [3]. Group 4: Cultural and Educational Exchange - The measures aim to create a cultural tourism district and enhance cooperation with Hong Kong educational institutions, establishing a comprehensive cooperation system across various education levels [3]. - A cross-border talent aggregation plan will be implemented, including the establishment of service stations and innovation incubators to foster a vibrant community for young people [3].

Group 1 - The core significance of the "9·24" policy shift is to restore confidence in the capital market and among entrepreneurs [1][11][60] - The past decade's perception of "dollar assets being the only star" is gradually being demystified [1][19] - The policy tone for 2026 is likely to remain gradual and moderate, with fiscal policy expected to exert slightly more force than in 2025, but not significantly [1][24][73] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology-driven innovation, which can highlight new productive forces amid economic challenges, although these cannot fully offset the impacts of traditional economic adjustments [1][4][28] - The key to breaking deflation lies in stabilizing the real estate market, which is crucial for economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 [1][33][79] - The experience from Hong Kong shows that when mortgage rates are lowered to be close to rental yields, the real estate market stabilizes [1][38][86] Group 3 - The past year and a half has seen significant changes in China's capital market due to shifts in policy, enterprise dynamics, and funding [2][9][23] - Enterprises have shown resilience and adaptability, enhancing competitiveness and innovation despite facing challenges from domestic real estate adjustments and external geopolitical pressures [13][14][65] - The trend of foreign investment returning to China is evident, as global investors seek diversified allocations beyond dollar assets [3][20][70] Group 4 - The real estate sector remains a significant influence on China's economy, with traditional industries still holding substantial sway [5][31][82] - The adjustment period for real estate in China is nearing its end, with significant declines in construction and sales volumes observed [85][86] - The need for a balanced approach in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, focusing on both technological advancement and consumer demand [25][51][100] Group 5 - Consumer spending is being targeted for enhancement through the establishment of a unified national market and increased fiscal investment in social welfare [42][92][95] - The low consumer rate and high savings rate in China are attributed to an inadequate social security system, which needs reform to boost consumer confidence [46][96][99] - The potential for a significant increase in domestic consumption is projected, with the goal of raising the share of consumption in GDP from approximately 40% to 45% by 2030 [49][50][99]

Group 1: Policy Environment - The regulatory environment in China is shifting from a focus on risk prevention to a balanced approach of regulation and support, providing clearer guidelines for companies seeking to list abroad [2] - Chinese regulatory authorities are optimizing overseas listing management rules, clarifying compliance paths in sensitive areas like data security and VIE structures, which reduces uncertainty for eligible companies [2] - In the U.S., there is a subtle change in the attitude towards IPOs, with regulatory bodies showing increased acceptance of companies in innovative sectors like technology and biomedicine, effectively lowering listing thresholds for these industries [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Chinese concept stocks have shown strong performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experiencing a notable rebound, and many companies reaching historical highs in stock prices [4] - The robust earnings growth of leading companies in new economic sectors such as consumption upgrade, technological innovation, and green energy has supported stock prices amid macroeconomic concerns [4] - Global liquidity is improving as major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, shift towards a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a search for high-growth investment opportunities, making U.S.-listed Chinese concept stocks attractive [4] Group 3: Future Challenges - The current favorable conditions should not be seen as a clear path forward, as regulatory cooperation between China and the U.S. still requires time to stabilize [6] - Ongoing compliance costs and potential regulatory scrutiny remain challenges for companies planning to go public [6] - Investors in the U.S. are becoming more selective, requiring companies to demonstrate strong technical capabilities, clear profit pathways, and sound corporate governance to achieve true value recognition [6]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile adjustment today, with all three major indices showing varying degrees of decline, influenced by global market conditions and local sentiment [1][3] - The market is reacting to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December, which has impacted global liquidity expectations [1][3] - A report from Morgan Stanley projected a 6-7% growth in annual earnings for 2026, below the market consensus of 15%, indicating a need to adjust optimistic expectations for earnings recovery, particularly in traditional consumer and real estate sectors [1][3] Sector Performance - Energy metals and lithium battery sectors saw significant declines, with futures prices for lithium carbonate and other raw materials retreating, alongside expectations of rising social inventory, negatively affecting market sentiment [3] - The film and media sector experienced short-term profit-taking, while the precious metals sector's decline was primarily driven by overall commodity market sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a competitive phase around the 3900-point mark, with short-term support expected near 3850 points, but facing pressure at key psychological levels [3] - The market's ability to break through the 4000-point threshold will depend on further positive stimuli, with current adjustments viewed as a healthy market behavior [3] Global Influences - The release of signals from the Bank of Japan regarding potential interest rate hikes has contributed to a general decline in major global stock markets, further suppressing risk appetite in the A-share market [3]

今年堪称近年港股打新的"赚钱效应大年"，多只新股首日涨幅超100%。但热度褪去后，"高开低走、昙 花一现"却成为贯穿全年新股市场的主流态势。 此外，钧达股份（HK02865）、圣贝拉（HK02508）、新琪安（HK02573）、禾赛-W（HK02525）等 均走出高开低走的"过山车"行情。 汇生国际资本有限公司总裁黄立冲分析道，在今年打新资金里，保证金融资和短线杠杆比例依然很高， 公开认购倍数动辄上千倍、个别项目上万倍，散户中签率低于1%，这类资金的目标就是"首日兑现"， 不会愿意长期陪跑。"上市首日冲高时，庄家、配售资金和打新散户一起出货，流动性集中在1至2天内 释放，之后成交额迅速萎缩，股价就容易沿着获利盘的成本区间一路往下'踩踏'。" 其中，最具代表性的是以超过1.15万倍的公开发售超额认购倍数、刷新港股新股历史纪录的金叶国际集 团（HK08549）。作为港股史上首只"万倍认购股"，金叶国际集团上市首日收盘涨幅高达330%，但此 后股价一路走跌。截至12月2日收盘，其报收每股0.40港元，已跌破0.5港元的发售价。 多位港股业内人士在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，2025年以来，港股新股市场整体强 ...

Group 1 - The forum aims to explore the concept of globalization for Chinese enterprises, encouraging participants to break cognitive boundaries and gain new perspectives on global strategies [4] - The founder of the Dolphin Society, Li Chengdong, emphasizes the importance of adapting to the changing landscape of the consumer market and the necessity for companies to pivot towards international opportunities as domestic markets become saturated [6][8] - The discussion highlights the need for companies to integrate into existing successful ecosystems when entering foreign markets, rather than starting from scratch [9][11] Group 2 - Historical parallels are drawn between the motivations for exploration in the past and the current drive for Chinese companies to expand internationally due to domestic market constraints [12][14] - The current era of globalization is characterized as a "system output" phase, where companies are not just exporting products but also their supply chains, business models, and talent [18] - Africa is identified as a key growth area for the next few decades, with its vast resources and young population presenting significant opportunities for investment and market development [20][22] Group 3 - Companies are advised to adopt an ecological mindset, focusing on providing unique value within established networks rather than competing directly against them [26] - The importance of professional services in navigating international markets is emphasized, as these can be critical to success and compliance [26] - Engaging with communities like the Dolphin Society can provide valuable insights and reduce the risks associated with international expansion [26]

市场层面显现积极回暖信号，为板块注入动能。海南离岛免税新政首周销售额同比增长35%，显示高端 消费需求强劲。海通国际指出，自2025年第三季度起，中国及亚太市场复苏正从头部向更广范围扩散， 目前多数可选消费子板块的2025年预期市盈率（PE）低于过去五年平均水平，板块整体估值处于历史 相对低位。"需求回暖"与"低估值"并存，中长期配置价值凸显。 12月2日午盘，港股消费板块窄幅震荡，港股消费ETF（513230）现小幅微涨，持仓股中，巨子生物、 波司登、中国旺旺、百威亚太等涨幅居前，小鹏汽车-W、美团-W、同程旅行、中国儒意等跌幅靠前。 近期，国家层面连续释放强力促消费信号，支持方式与内涵显著升级。11月20日，财政部、商务部联合 推出消费新业态、新模式、新场景城市试点，中央财政提供约170亿元补助。核心思路从直接补贴需求 的"输血"，转向承担优化供给结构的外部成本，鼓励地方与企业共同打造首发经济、多元消费场景及IP 跨界等新生态，推动消费向"质量跃升"转型。11月27日，在扩大免签、优化离境退税等政策助力 下，"中国游"、"中国购"热度不减。1-9月离境退税销售额同比翻倍。商务部明确将继续深化国际消费 中心 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 【导读】涉嫌信披违法违规、违规融资等，当代集团被立案 中国基金报记者 晨曦 当代集团，被立案！ 当代集团称，在立案调查期间，公司将积极配合中国证监会的调查工作，同时严格按照监管要求及相关规则，及时履行后续进展情况的信息披露义务。 公开信息显示，当代集团成立于1988年7月，是注册在武汉东湖新技术开发区内的一家民营高新技术集团公司，注册资本为55亿元；集团创始人为艾路 明。发展三十多年，"当代系"逐渐拓展至医药、消费、文化等各产业领域，曾控股人福医药、三特索道等多家上市公司。 2022年4月，当代集团首只债券发生违约事件，随后多只债券陆续发生违约。2023年8月，人福医药、三特索道等公司公告称，艾路明因涉嫌信息披露违法 违规被中国证监会立案。 12月2日，武汉当代科技产业集团股份有限公司发布公告称，其于11月28日收到中国证监会《立案告知书》。因涉嫌信息披露违法违规、违规融资等，中 国证监会决定对其立案。 2024年9月，债权人以当代集团不能清偿到期债务且明显缺乏清偿能力，向武汉中院提交重整申请。 此外，由于未在法定期限内披露定期报告，当代集团及艾路明在2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) experienced a net redemption of 837,900 CNY on December 1, ranking 32nd out of 198 in cross-border ETF net outflows, with a current scale of 775 million CNY, reflecting a 0.11% outflow compared to the previous day's scale [1][2] Group 1: Fund Performance - As of December 1, the latest share count for the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) is 926 million, with a scale of 775 million CNY, showing a 140.06% increase in shares and a 196.61% increase in scale year-to-date [2] - The fund has accumulated a total trading volume of 1.22 billion CNY over the past 20 trading days, with an average daily trading volume of 59.02 million CNY [2] Group 2: Fund Management - The current fund manager for the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) is Li Yixuan, who has managed the fund since its inception on May 25, 2021, with a return of -16.29% during the management period [2] Group 3: Top Holdings - The top holdings of the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) include Alibaba-W (19.54%), Tencent Holdings (16.59%), and Pop Mart (7.99%), among others, with their respective market values and share counts detailed [2]