Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The black - series commodity futures were generally bullish on August 6, 2025. The prices of coking coal and coke were strongly supported. The anti - involution expectation in the coal industry and supply - side disturbances were likely to last until around the National Day. The fundamentals of coke showed a tight - balance state, and the prices had the momentum to run steadily and strongly, but the expectation of further price increases was weakening [1]. 3. Summary by Content Market Overview - On August 6, the overall black - series commodity futures were bullish. The closing price of rebar was 3234 yuan/ton, up 0.75%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3451 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 794.5 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke rose, with coking coal leading the gain by over 6% [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: Market rumors about the investigation of over - production in Shanxi coal mines from January to June reignited the "anti - involution" expectation in the coal industry. The expectation of production restrictions before the September 3 parade was strengthening, and rumors such as the 276 - working - day notice and the end of the coal supply guarantee policy shrank the supply expectation. In reality, coal mines had good sales, and the pit - mouth coal prices remained firm. With high downstream coke - enterprise operating rates and high pig - iron production, the rigid demand for coking coal was strong, and inventories were low. Last week, the inventories of 523 sample mines, coal - washing plants, and port - imported coking coal decreased, while the inventories of independent coke enterprises and steel mills increased [1]. - **Coke**: On August 4, steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places raised the coke purchase prices. With the high daily pig - iron output of steel mills and the positive purchase attitude of most steel mills and the trading sector, the inventories of independent coke enterprises decreased to a 9 - month low. Supported by cost and demand, the fundamentals were in a tight - balance state, and the prices had the momentum to run steadily and strongly. However, as steel mills' attitudes were clear and the trading sector started to sell, the expectation of further price increases weakened [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the price decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary The prices of coking coal and coke futures were affected by market sentiment. After the previous sharp rise, the spot market maintained low inventories and strong rigid demand, and price support remained. The anti - involution expectation was repeated, and supply - side disturbances in coal mines were expected to last until around the National Day [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections have boosted market sentiment [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term, with a decline in global shipments and a decrease in iron - making water production [1]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. The over - production inspection of coal mines affects the supply side, and the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, with stable demand [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. Market news has a certain impact on market sentiment, but has not yet affected supply and demand [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The price of rebar futures rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3233 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. Spot prices also increased. The issuance of new local government special bonds accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections boosted sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 rose to 798.5 yuan/ton, up 1%. Global shipments decreased, iron - making water production declined, and port inventories decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1035 yuan/ton, up 2.93%. The over - production inspection of coal mines affected the supply side, and coke enterprises still had certain restocking needs. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1634.5 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. After the fifth price increase of coke, the profit of coke enterprises was further repaired, and demand was stable. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6018 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. Market news had a certain impact on sentiment, but "anti - involution" had not affected supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating with support at the bottom [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5716 yuan/ton, up 1.03%. The cost increased, and supply continued to rise. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of various contracts such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, down 6.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 127.0, down 9.0 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various varieties increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Profits such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit increased. Cross - variety spreads such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio also changed [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [19][20][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [27][29][31]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes spread trend charts of cross - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Rebar Profits**: It provides profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise [54][55].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **high-end industry in China**, particularly its development, challenges, and the impact of internal competition (involution) on industrial upgrading [1][5][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Structural Policies**: China has implemented structural easing policies to guide funds towards high-end industries, resulting in significant growth in industrial loans for high-tech sectors, while support for the real estate sector remains weak [3][2]. 2. **Economic Challenges**: The Chinese economy faces weak overall demand, leading to low capacity utilization rates, particularly in high-end industries, which are even lower than traditional industries [5][6]. 3. **Involution Impact**: Involution has led to price reductions as companies compete for orders, which can suppress further development of high-end industries if driven by insufficient demand rather than economies of scale [6][7]. 4. **Export Trends**: Over the past decade, the export share of high-end industries such as computers, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment has significantly increased, while traditional industries like rubber and textiles have seen a decline [8][10]. 5. **High vs. Low Growth Groups**: High-growth groups (emerging industries) have shown strong performance in fixed asset investment and industrial value added, but their export growth has lagged behind low-growth groups (traditional industries) in recent years due to involution [10][9]. 6. **Quality Indicators**: Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is used as a quality measure, indicating that a decline in the export delivery value as a proportion of revenue correlates with stronger TFP [11][4]. 7. **Future Directions**: High-end manufacturing is not the endpoint of industrial upgrading; the next level involves research and development, branding, and high-value-added services [12][13]. 8. **Need for Anti-Involution Policies**: To counteract the negative effects of involution, policies promoting demand and improving capacity utilization are essential for healthy economic development [15][16]. Additional Important Content - **Price Dynamics**: Price decreases should be analyzed to determine their causes; if due to demand insufficiency, they may hinder industrial upgrading [7]. - **Labor Market Effects**: Anti-involution policies should also address labor market issues, as stagnant wage growth can lead to reduced consumer spending on higher-quality goods, further impacting industrial upgrading [16]. - **Evaluation of Policies**: The effectiveness of anti-involution policies can be assessed through macroeconomic indicators such as profit changes, inflation levels, and the speed of industrial upgrading [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Roll: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★, no clear definition provided in the given content [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Steel: Spot supply - demand contradiction is not significant. After adjustment, the market stabilizes with strong downside support. Pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market [2] - Iron Ore: Expected to be in a short - term oscillating and slightly upward trend [3] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [4] - Coking Coal: Volatility is large in the short term, and the downside space is relatively small [6] - Silicon Manganese: The price bottom gradually rises, but the upside space is gradually suppressed [7] - Ferrosilicon: The upside pressure on the price gradually increases [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Thread: In the off - season, building material demand is weak, with a decline in apparent demand and a slight drop in production. Inventory accumulates at a low level [2] - Hot Roll: Both demand and production increase, and inventory continues to accumulate slightly [2] - Overall: Iron - water production declines but remains high. The negative feedback pressure on the market is small under the low - inventory pattern. Domestic demand is weak, and exports remain relatively high [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decline this period, with a seasonal rebound expected in August. Domestic arrivals increase but are lower than last year's level. Port inventory decreases significantly [3] - Demand: Terminal demand is weak due to weather. Blast - furnace iron - water decreases slightly, and steel mills have insufficient motivation for active production cuts [3] - Macro: Overseas trade uncertainty exists, and domestic anti - involution concerns cool down. Coking coal rebound drives bullish sentiment [3] Coke - Price: The price rises significantly during the day [4] - Production: The fifth round of price increases is implemented, and daily production decreases slightly [4] - Inventory: Overall inventory continues to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is good [4] Coking Coal - Price: The price hits the daily limit and then declines slightly, with high volatility [6] - Production: Coking coal mine production increases slightly, and the spot auction market improves [6] - Inventory: Total inventory decreases, and production - end inventory drops significantly [6] Silicon Manganese - Demand: Iron - water production remains above 240 [7] - Production: Weekly production continues to increase, but the rate is lower than expected [7] - Raw Materials: Manganese ore prices rise slightly this week, and inventory is expected to accumulate in the second half of the year [7] Ferrosilicon - Demand: Iron - water production decreases slightly but remains above 240. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, and metal magnesium production decreases marginally [8] - Supply: Supply increases slightly, and market transactions are average. On - balance inventory accumulates slightly [8] - Cost: As the peak electricity - consumption period passes, electricity costs may decline [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various black commodities on August 5, 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It provides short - term price trend predictions for each commodity based on factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market had a narrow - range shock. The inventory increased, indicating pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals. However, expectations of anti - involution policies and rumors of military parade production restrictions boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will have a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose. The supply decreased as Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and the demand weakened with a drop in molten iron production. Considering the "anti - involution" sentiment and military parade production restrictions, it is expected that the iron ore price will show an oscillatory consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The upstream coal mine inventory decreased, and the downstream was replenishing stocks. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, but the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources declined. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the fifth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, and the production remained stable. The cost pressure eased, and the rigid demand from steel mills continued. It is expected that the coke futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The ferromanganese silicon futures price had a narrow - range shock. The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the market returned to fundamental trading. The production increased in July, while the demand from steel mills was weak. Considering the tight spot market, it is expected that the ferromanganese silicon price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The "anti - involution" driver cooled down, and the supply increased in July. The demand from the steel industry was weak, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Basis**: It shows the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis for different contracts of each commodity [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their month - on - month changes in different regions for each commodity are presented [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar futures trading profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) of black commodities is provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of the main contracts of various black commodities over different periods are shown, helping to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different - period contracts of various black commodities are provided, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract months [26][28][30][33][35][36][39]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts of cross - commodity spreads of black commodities are presented, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the futures trading profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar are provided to show the profit situation of the rebar industry over time [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, professional backgrounds, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].

Summary of Iron Ore Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the iron ore market, specifically the pricing and demand dynamics in China, which is a major consumer of iron ore [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Pricing Trends**: The spot price for 62% Fe iron ore has decreased to $99 per ton from $105 per ton in late July, with expectations for prices to remain in the $95-100 per ton range for the remainder of Q3 [2][3][5]. 2. **Fundamental Support**: While consumption is expected to provide a floor at $95 per ton, the anticipated disappointment from stimulus measures and anti-innovation policies is likely to exert downward pressure on prices [2][3][5]. 3. **Future Price Forecast**: The forecast indicates a decline in iron ore prices to $90 per ton by the end of 2025, driven by weakening Chinese consumption and an increase in low-cost supply [2][3][16]. 4. **Stimulus Measures**: The July Politburo meeting did not announce major new stimulus, aligning with low expectations. Incremental easing may occur only if hard data shows significant growth headwinds in H2 [6][15]. 5. **Steel Demand from Property Sector**: No significant increase in steel demand from the property sector is expected due to a declining population, slower urbanization, and reduced demolition demand [7][8]. 6. **Infrastructure Sector Investment**: Although there is a positive growth expectation for steel demand in the infrastructure sector, recent investments are viewed as strategic rather than indicative of a cyclical recovery [8]. 7. **Production and Capacity Dynamics**: The weak labor market limits the potential for large-scale production cuts, and while steel production is expected to decline in H2, this is attributed to lower demand rather than mandated cuts [15][16]. 8. **Steelmaking Margins**: Steelmaking margins have improved but are expected to narrow due to rising coking coal prices and pressure on domestic steel prices, which may impact iron ore prices [15][16]. 9. **Supply Dynamics**: Global iron ore shipments are recovering, with Brazilian shipments up 2% year-over-year in July and Australian shipments up 5% year-over-year [34][36]. Additional Important Insights - **Long Steel Demand**: Long steel apparent demand is currently in line with last year but remains 36% below the 2016-2023 average, indicating a significant decline in demand [11][66]. - **Inventory Levels**: Mills' inventory of imported iron ore has returned to last year's levels, suggesting stable supply dynamics despite fluctuations in demand [28][30]. - **Market Positioning**: Managed money net positioning has shifted to a marginally long position, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [21]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities of the iron ore market, emphasizing the interplay between demand, supply, and policy measures that will shape future pricing and market dynamics.

中国物流与采购联合会大宗商品流通分会副会长 周旭：中国大宗商品价格指数环比连续三个月回升，大宗商品市场的运行，总体持续回暖。在目前整 个国家"反内卷"的相关政策以及逆周期调节政策的加力实施下，我们国家大宗商品市场总体保持扩张态势。 另外，专家表示，我国大宗商品价格与全球经济关联度较高。当前全球大宗商品价格波动加剧，外部不确定、不稳定风险仍然较多，部分行业仍面临有 效需求不足、生产经营压力加大等问题。下一步仍需进一步发挥大宗商品流通在扩内需、稳增长、促发展方面的重要作用，激发增强经济内生动力和创新活 力，继续巩固经济回升向好的基础。 7月份中国大宗商品价格指数为111.4点，环比上涨0.5%。分行业看，黑色价格指数止跌反弹，有色价格指数继续上涨。在中国物流与采购联合会重点监 测的50种大宗商品中，价格环比上涨的大宗商品有32种。其中，碳酸锂、工业硅和焦煤的价格较上月分别上涨10.2%、9.8%和9.6%。 央视网消息：中国物流与采购联合会8月5日公布7月份中国大宗商品价格指数。从指数运行情况看，指数连续三个月环比回升，表明企业生产经营活动 继续回暖，大宗商品市场运行持续稳定恢复，总体保持扩张态势。 ...

Report Overview - The report is a Guotai Junan Futures' commodity research morning report for the black series dated August 5, 2025, covering various commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, while rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are likely to experience wide-range oscillations as market sentiment cools. Coke and coking coal are also forecasted to have wide-range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.96%. Some imported ore prices remained stable, while some domestic ore prices decreased. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Rebar's RB2510 contract closed at 3,204 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil's HC2510 contract closed at 3,417 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.26%. Spot prices showed mixed changes. The trend strength for both is 0 [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,674 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan, and silicomanganese 2509 closed at 5,972 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Coking coal's JM2509 contract closed at 1,005.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan or 2.1%, and coke's J2509 contract closed at 1,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.9%. Some spot prices of coking coal decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [16] Logs - The 2509 contract of logs closed at 842 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.5% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] Macro and Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period [4][9][17]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) rose by 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, marking three consecutive months of positive growth, indicating optimistic business expectations and overall market expansion [1][5] - The overall stability in the commodity market is supported by the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and increased macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustment measures [5][7] - Despite the positive trends, global commodity price volatility and external uncertainties remain significant challenges for certain industries [1][5] Commodity Price Index Summary - The CBPI for July 2025 is reported at 111.4 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [3][6] - The black metal price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index rose to 130.1 points, up 1.1% month-on-month [3][7] - The energy price index decreased to 96.7 points, down 0.6% month-on-month, and the chemical price index fell to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month [3][8] Sector-Specific Insights - In July, 32 out of 50 monitored commodities saw price increases, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and coking coal rising by 10.2%, 9.8%, and 9.6% respectively [5][6] - The chemical sector experienced a decline, with methanol and cement prices dropping by 5% and 4.8% respectively, attributed to supply-demand imbalances and increased inventories [8][9] - The agricultural price index slightly decreased to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by high temperatures and lower-than-expected summer consumption [8][9] Market Dynamics - The rebound in black metal prices is driven by improved market confidence and rising prices of raw materials like coking coal and coke [6][7] - The energy sector's decline is linked to seasonal production slowdowns and weaker downstream demand [7][8] - The mineral price index fell to 71.7 points, down 2.7% month-on-month, due to weak downstream demand and increased inventory pressures [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The black - series commodity futures basically stabilized on August 4. The futures market decline recently cooled the previous positive sentiment, but the spot coal price remained firm due to good sales and pre - orders. The coking coal demand was strong with low inventory. The coke market was in a tight - balance state with positive sentiment and upward price momentum [1]. - After the fourth round of price increase for coke, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, but the inventory decreased, and the demand from steel mills was rigid, so the price had the power to run steadily and strongly [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - On August 4, the closing price of rebar was 3204 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3417 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the iron ore contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton; the double - coking futures showed a V - shaped trend [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: The recent futures market decline cooled the sentiment, and some traders sold to realize profits. However, coal mines had good sales and pre - orders, so the pit - mouth coal price remained firm. The coking coal demand was strong supported by high -开工 rate of downstream coke enterprises and high iron - water output. The inventory was low, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream increasing. Last week, the inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 30.2 tons to 248.3 tons (the lowest since March 2024), the inventory of coal - washing plants decreased by 9.23 tons to 166.38 tons (the lowest in a year), the port inventory decreased by 3.53% to 493.94 tons, and the inventory of independent coke enterprises and steel mills increased slightly to 992.73 tons and 803.79 tons respectively (both at the highest in nearly half a year). The market had a fear of high prices, and the proportion of unsold lots increased by 4.5% week - on - week, but the overall transaction price still trended upward [1]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price increase, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, with the profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants increasing only slightly by 9 yuan to - 45 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises cut production due to losses, affecting the daily output. The supply was tight. With the high daily iron - water output of steel mills, the procurement enthusiasm of steel mills and the intermediate trading links was high, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 8.11% to 73.62 tons (the lowest in 9 months). The cost support was significantly enhanced, and the market sentiment was positive. On August 3, some mainstream steel mills in the Hebei market planned to increase the price of wet coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on August 4, 2025 [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Double - Coking**: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary The double - coking futures prices declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market had low inventory and strong demand, so there was still price support [1].