Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of late August 2025, the market price for hot-rolled ordinary plate coils (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) is 3444.9 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.07% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for the same product was 5820.2 yuan per ton in late August 2021 [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Black Metal Research Report" and "Black Metal Daily - Ferroalloy Daily" [1][2] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约: closed at 5766, up 66 for the day and 138 for the week, with a trading volume of 165,669 (down 45,267) and an open interest of 212,449 (down 4,542) [4] - SM主力合约: closed at 5990, up 46 for the day and 136 for the week, with a trading volume of 169,284 (down 50,960) and an open interest of 326,849 (down 8,872) [4] Spot - Silicon - iron: prices in some regions decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton on September 17, e.g., 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton (down 50 for the day, up 40 for the week) [4] - Manganese - silicon: prices in some regions decreased by 20 yuan/ton on September 17, e.g., silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton (unchanged for the day, up 50 for the week) [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 316 (down 116 for the day, down 98 for the week) [4] - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 260 (down 46 for the day, down 86 for the week) [4] - SF - SM spread was - 224 (up 20 for the day, up 2 for the week) [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 40 yuan/ton degree (unchanged for the day, up 0.2 for the week) [4] - Semi - carbonated South African ore was 34.3 yuan/ton degree (unchanged for the day, up 0.3 for the week) [4] - Gabon lump was 40 yuan/ton degree (unchanged for the day, up 0.2 for the week) [4] - Blue charcoal small pieces: in Shaanxi, it was 660 yuan/ton (unchanged for the day, up 10 for the week) [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With a warm macro - sentiment, prices are short - term strong, but the pressure of high supply remains, so the target should not be set too high [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a straddle option combination [6] Silicon - iron - On September 17, spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 30 - 50 yuan/ton drop. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Demand data was average, increasing expectations of domestic stimulus policies after the Fed's potential rate cut. Market sentiment was boosted by Sino - US trade talks. It rebounded but faced high - supply pressure [5] Manganese - silicon - On September 17, manganese ore spot prices were stable, and manganese - silicon spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 20 yuan/ton drop. Supply increased slightly and remained high. Demand was dragged down by the decline in electric furnace operating rates. Cost was supported by low port inventories of manganese ore. It will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [5] Group 4: Important Information - On September 17, Tianjin Port manganese ore spot prices: Australian lump (Mn41.5%) was 40.2 yuan/ton degree, South African medium - iron lump (Mn42%Fe17%) was 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) was 40.3 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed (Mn39.8%Fe7.6%) was 36 yuan/ton degree [7] - From January to August 2025, enterprise income tax revenue was 3.1477 trillion yuan, up 0.3% year - on - year, and individual income tax revenue was 1.0547 trillion yuan, up 8.9% year - on - year [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon - iron - Inner Mongolia: production cost was 5550 yuan/ton, profit was - 150 yuan/ton [16] - Ningxia: production cost was 5603 yuan/ton, profit was - 203 yuan/ton [16] - Shaanxi: production cost was 5615 yuan/ton, profit was - 235 yuan/ton [16] - Qinghai: production cost was 5568 yuan/ton, profit was - 288 yuan/ton [16] - Gansu: production cost was 5618 yuan/ton, profit was - 318 yuan/ton [16] Manganese - silicon - Inner Mongolia: production cost was 5807 yuan/ton, profit was - 127 yuan/ton [21] - Ningxia: production cost was 5918 yuan/ton, profit was - 318 yuan/ton [21] - Guangxi: production cost was 6381 yuan/ton, profit was - 701 yuan/ton [21] - Guizhou: production cost was 6120 yuan/ton, profit was - 470 yuan/ton [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating on the stronger side [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating on the stronger side [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating on the stronger side [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is affected by environmental protection inspections and production restrictions in Tangshan, and the short - term thread disk is expected to run with an upward bias. The iron ore market has a complex supply - demand situation, and the price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend. The coking coal and coke markets are influenced by production and demand factors, and the short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are boosted by market sentiment, but the fundamental driving force is limited, and the prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The thread disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the thread 2601 contract was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 21,800 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume declined slightly. With environmental protection inspections and production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term disk is expected to run with an upward bias [1] - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2601 price of iron ore futures rose yesterday, closing at 803.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day, with 400,000 lots traded and a decrease of 3,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices rose. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered after production restrictions, but the steel mill profitability has declined, and the inventory has increased. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [1] - **Coking coal**: The coking coal disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1240.5 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 4.46%, with an increase of 33,930 lots in positions. Spot prices rose. The supply side has normal production, and the demand side has a slowdown in procurement. The short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1] - **Coke**: The coke disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 46.5 yuan/ton or 2.75%, with a decrease of 406 lots in positions. Spot prices rose. After two rounds of price cuts, the profitability of coke enterprises has declined, and the supply is sufficient. With production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened on Tuesday. The main contract was reported at 5944 yuan/ton, up 1.02% month - on - month, with an increase of 7995 lots in positions to 335,700 lots. Market prices in various regions rose. Driven by the overall strength of the black sector and positive market news, the price is expected to oscillate on the stronger side, but the upward space is limited [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened on Tuesday. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, up 0.71% month - on - month, with a decrease of 810 lots in positions to 212,400 lots. Market prices in various regions rose. Affected by the overall strength of the black sector and positive market sentiment, but with limited fundamental driving force, the price is expected to follow the black sector and oscillate slightly on the stronger side [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents the contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities, as well as the profit, price spreads, and other data of some commodities, including the contract spreads between different months, the basis of different contracts, and the changes in spot prices in different regions [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][8][9][11][15] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][20][22][23][24][25] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the inter - period contract spreads of various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][41] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: It shows the inter - commodity contract spreads of some black commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and steel, the ratio of steel to iron ore, the ratio of steel to coke, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, etc. [43][44][45][47] - **3.5 Steel Profits**: It shows the profit trends of steel, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the main steel contracts [48][49][51][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures and treasury bond futures), precious metals, and multiple commodity futures (like non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products). It assesses market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the stock index futures market, the technology sector has regained strength, and there is sector rotation of funds; in the precious metals market, the expectation of monetary easing is rising before the Fed's decision, driving up the prices of gold and silver; in the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][8][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the major indices opened higher and then retreated. The stock market showed a pattern of sector rotation. The technology sector was strong, and the financial sector adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performance. The main contracts IF2509 and IH2509 fell, while IC2509 and IM2509 rose. The market is influenced by domestic and overseas news, such as Sino - US economic and trade talks and the appointment of a new Fed governor. The current basis of the main contracts has been rapidly repaired. It is recommended to consider a double - buy strategy if the volatility decreases [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The central bank increased liquidity injection, and the money market was in a state of convergence. Although the money market was tight during the tax period, the bond market showed a recovery due to the increased allocation value and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases. It is recommended that investors wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the money market and the central bank's operations [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of monetary easing continued to rise, and the US dollar index fell to a new low for the year. Gold prices reached a new high and then retreated, while silver prices fell due to the correction in the non - ferrous metal sector. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [7][8][9]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market is focused on the FOMC meeting. The spot price has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream demand. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the output of refined copper is expected to decline in September. The inventory shows a pattern of de - stocking in LME and stocking in the domestic market. It is expected that the copper price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [10][12][13]. - **Alumina**: The spot price has declined, and the supply is increasing. Although the futures price has rebounded, the market is still in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. It is expected that the main contract will oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton in the short term, and it is advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price is stable. The output of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the process of recovery. The inventory shows a pattern of repeated changes. It is expected that the aluminum price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is stable. The output of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to increase in September. The demand is gradually recovering. The inventory is in the process of accumulation. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is in the process of recovery. The domestic inventory is accumulating, while the LME inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the zinc price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the price is at a high level. The spot price is high, and the trading is light. The import of tin ore has decreased, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the tin price will be range - bound at a high level, and the main contract is expected to trade between 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [26][27][28]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is improving, and the price is strongly range - bound. The output of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory is increasing. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [29][30][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is range - bound and slightly weak. The cost is supported, but the demand has not fully recovered. The inventory is decreasing slowly. It is expected that the price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is positive, and the price is strongly range - bound. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel rose due to the expected contraction in the coal supply. The spot price of rebar increased more than that of hot - rolled coil, and the spread between them narrowed. The supply of steel is at a high level, and the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The inventory is expected to rise. It is recommended to try short - term long positions, with the upper resistance level of rebar at 3350 yuan and that of hot - rolled coil at 3500 yuan [40][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is strongly range - bound. The global shipment of iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the increase in steel production and the need for replenishment. The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal is expected to rebound. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is increasing due to the increase in steel production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long coking coal and short coke [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is expected to rebound. The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the third - round cut is difficult. The supply of coke is increasing, and the demand is supported by the increase in steel production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long coking coal and short coke [51][55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The price of soybean meal has stabilized. The US soybean export inspection volume has increased, and the Brazilian new soybean planting has started. The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the 01 contract will trade between 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton [57][58][59]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of live pigs is oscillating weakly. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is slowly recovering. The profit of pig farming has decreased. It is expected that the price will continue to bottom - out [60][61]. - **Corn**: The price of corn is under pressure. The new - season corn in the Northeast is slow to be listed, and the supply in the North China region has increased. The demand is mainly for replenishment. It is expected that the price will be range - bound and weak in the short and medium terms [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar has rebounded from an oversold level, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating. The supply of raw sugar is in surplus, and the domestic sugar inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to short on rallies [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The risk appetite of funds has improved, and the industry is waiting for the confirmation of the peak demand in the peak season. There is a possibility of improvement in both supply and demand of steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. However, there are concerns about the high inventory of building materials. Futures prices are neutrally valued, and the price upward - driving force is not strong for now. Attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can accelerate in the next two weeks [2]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from loss to profit, with increased supply. Terminal demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be verified, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace start - up rates, which may impact the demand for the two alloys [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The expectation of coal - mine over - production inspection has resurfaced. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Although the black fundamentals are weakening marginally, the bottom support for coking coal and coke is relatively strong under the influence of domestic policy expectations and overseas interest - rate cuts. Pre - holiday inventory replenishment is approaching, and the previous long positions should be held [5]. - **Iron Ore**: During the inventory - replenishment period, iron ore has support, but its price increase height depends on the strength of steel demand. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress the price increase. A long - at - low strategy is maintained in the long term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On September 15, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3205.00 yuan/ton with a 42.00 yuan increase (1.33% increase), HC2605 at 3374.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.87% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3136.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.93% increase), HC2601 at 3370.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.87% increase) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 69.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a - 13.00 yuan change. The roll - screw spread was 234.00 yuan/ton, with a - 3.00 yuan change. The screw - ore ratio was 3.94, with a 0.03 change, etc. [1] Spot Market - **Steel**: The spot price of Shanghai thread steel (HRB400 20mm) was 3260.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a 12.50 yuan increase. The spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, with a 10.00 yuan increase [1]. - **Alloys and Other Materials**: The spot price of Qingdao Port super - special powder was 700.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a 9.00 yuan increase. The spot price of Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) was 1480.00 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Pay attention to the contraction of the roll - screw spread of the 01 contract for disk arbitrage. Consider reverse arbitrage for spot - futures trading (end - user buying hedging) [7]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Industrial customers should pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Hold the previous long positions [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Continue the strategy of going long at low prices [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are oscillating and differentiating, with the new - energy sector being structurally strong; treasury bond futures are affected by weak fundamentals and strong risk preferences; precious metals are rising due to concerns about the Fed's independence; and container shipping futures are expected to decline. In the commodity futures market, different metal and agricultural product futures have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, and corresponding investment suggestions are given based on these [2][5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed oscillating differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose. The new - energy sector was hot, and financial stocks adjusted. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts declined. The base difference of the 09 contracts is rapidly repairing. The market is affected by domestic economic data and overseas news. The operation suggestion is to consider the option double - buying strategy if the volatility continues to decline [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose at the end of the session. The weak economic data in August is favorable for the bond market, but the strong risk preference suppresses long - term bonds. The operation suggestion is to wait and see, pay attention to the capital situation and whether incremental credit - easing policies are introduced [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose. Before the FOMC meeting, Trump's call for a sharp interest - rate cut and the possible confirmation of a cabinet member as a voting member have increased concerns about the Fed's independence and credibility, weakening the US dollar and boosting the prices of precious metals. The future outlook is that the Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and the political turmoil in Europe and the US has increased the demand for precious metals as a hedge [8][9][10]. Container Shipping (European Lines) - The spot prices of container shipping continue to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the Shanghai - Europe freight rate have decreased. The global container capacity has increased year - on - year. The futures price fell, and the spot price has a downward impact on the futures. It is expected that the spot will continue to decline slowly, and the futures price will also decline. The operation suggestion is to short the 10 - contract unilaterally or conduct a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has risen, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 9 - month interest - rate cut is almost certain, which boosts copper prices in the short term. The fundamental situation is "weak reality + stable expectation". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 79500 - 82000 yuan/ton [13][14][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot price has declined, and the supply pattern is gradually loose. The futures price shows a low - level oscillating trend, presenting a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton, and short positions can be considered in the medium term if the cost support weakens [17][18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price has declined. The supply has increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate around the peak - season expectation and the actual consumption fulfillment. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20600 - 21400 yuan/ton [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in September, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton, and a spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price is stable. The supply of zinc ore is loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase. The demand is in the peak season, but the domestic and overseas markets are differentiated. The price is expected to oscillate, and the operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [25][26][29]. - **Tin**: The spot price has declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The spot price has risen slightly. The macro - environment is improving, and the supply of refined nickel is at a relatively high level. The demand is stable in some areas and weak in others. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price has risen. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the peak - season expectation but has not been significantly released. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 12800 - 13400 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price is stable. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is optimistic. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [40][41][43]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The spot price has risen. The cost is affected by factors such as coking coal and iron ore. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a seasonal decline. The price is expected to rise, and the pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3350 yuan/ton and 3500 yuan/ton respectively [44][46][47]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of slight change. The price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, while the spot price is oscillating weakly. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of medium - level decline. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [51][52][53]. - **Coke**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the second - round price cut by steel mills has been implemented. The supply is increasing, and the demand has support. The inventory is in a state of medium - level increase. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [54][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The domestic soybean meal spot price has declined. The US soybean supply is strong and the demand is weak. The Brazilian soybean premium is strong, which supports the domestic cost. The domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level. The price of the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton [58][59][61]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. The breeding - end slaughter has increased, and the demand is slowly recovering. The supply recovery pattern is clear, and the price is expected to continue to bottom - out [62][63].

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Daily Report - Report Date: September 15, 2025 - Report Author: Commodity Research Institute, Black Research and Development 1. Futures Market Data - **DCE Futures Prices**: DCE01 was at 796.0, down 3.5 from yesterday; DCE05 was at 774.5, down 3.0; DCE09 was at 757.0, down 59.0 [2] - **Spread Data**: I01 - I05 was 21.5, down 0.5; I05 - I09 was 17.5, up 56.0; I09 - I01 was -39.0, down 55.5 [2] 2. Spot Market Data - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Various iron ore powders and concentrates showed price increases, such as PB powder (60.8%) rising from 777 to 780, and Newman powder rising from 787 to 790 [2] - **Base Difference Data**: The base differences of different varieties to 01, 05, and 09 contracts were calculated, with the optimal delivery product being BRBF(62.5%) with base differences of 35, 57, and 18 respectively [2] - **Spot Variety Spreads**: Spreads like Carajás fines - PB powder were 126, up 1 from the previous day, and Newman powder - Jinbuba powder was 26, down 3 [2] - **Import Profits**: Import profits of different varieties changed; for example, Carajás fines' import profit increased from -10 to -7, and PB powder's increased from -7 to -6 [2] 3. Index Data - **Platts Index**: The Platts 62% iron ore price was 106.4, up 0.7; the 65% price was 123.1, up 0.5; the 58% price was 93.9, up 1.3 [2] - **Domestic and Foreign US Dollar Spreads**: SGX主力 - DCE01 was 8.1, up 0.1; SGX主力 - DCE05 was 10.8, unchanged; SGX主力 - DCE09 was 6.0, up 3.7 [2] 4. Graphical Data - **Base Difference Graphs**: There were graphs showing the base differences between the optimal delivery product and 01, 05, and 09 contracts [19][12] - **Spread Graphs**: Graphs presented the 1/5 spread and other cross - period spreads [14] - **Import Profit Graphs**: Graphs displayed the import profits of PB powder, PB lump, Super Special powder, and Carajás fines over multiple years [17][21] - **Price Spread Graphs**: Graphs showed the spreads between PB lump - PB powder, Carajás fines - PB powder, and relationships between steel mill cash profits and high - medium - low grade price spreads [24][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, as the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" arrives, the supply and demand of steel may shift from weak to strong. However, for steel prices to have an upward rebound drive, it requires confirmation of an upward acceleration in demand indicators. Currently, the price upward drive is not clear, and the next two weeks should focus on whether the peak - season demand accelerates upward [2]. - In the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market, the previous large - scale losses in the alloy industry have turned into profits, with supply increasing. Terminal demand needs to be verified during the peak season, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric furnace starts, and inventory de - stocking pressure remains [3]. - In the coking coal and coke market, the second round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, but the coal - coke futures price decline space may be limited. Short - term trading is volatile, and mid - term investors can consider going long on dips [5]. - In the iron ore market, during the restocking period, iron ore has support, but its price increase height depends on the performance of steel demand. It is still recommended to buy on dips in the long term [6]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 12th, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3189 yuan/ton with a rise of 39 yuan and a 1.24% increase; HC2605 closed at 3368 yuan/ton with a rise of 21 yuan and a 0.63% increase. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a rise of 26 yuan and a 0.84% increase; HC2601 closed at 3364 yuan/ton with a rise of 22 yuan and a 0.66% increase [1]. - As of September 12th, the roll - screw spread was 237 yuan/ton with a decrease of 5 yuan; the screw - ore ratio was 3.91 with an increase of 0.02; the coal - coke ratio was 1.42 with a decrease of 0.01; the steel - making profit on the screw thread was - 62.68 yuan/ton with an increase of 30.65 yuan; the coking profit on the disk was 103.32 yuan/ton with a decrease of 8.49 yuan [1]. Spot Market - On September 12th, the Shanghai screw thread price was 3210 yuan/ton with no change; the Tianjin screw thread price was 3190 yuan/ton with no change; the Guangzhou screw thread price was 3240 yuan/ton with no change; the Tangshan billet price was 3010 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 106.35 with an increase of 0.7 [1]. - The Shanghai hot - rolled coil price was 3410 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3440 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan; the Guangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3390 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; the billet - material spread was 200 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3010 yuan; the PB price at Rizhao Port was 791 yuan/ton with a decrease of 9 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach on a single - side basis; pay attention to the contraction of the roll - screw spread of the 01 contract for disk arbitrage; and focus on reverse arbitrage (end - user buying hedging) for spot - futures arbitrage [7]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, industrial customers should pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage [7]. - For coking coal and coke, mid - term investors can consider going long on dips with last week's low as a reference [7]. - For iron ore, continue the strategy of buying on dips [7].

Consumption Data - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from July, the lowest monthly growth rate this year[3] - Retail sales of goods and catering services showed a divergence, with growth rates of 3.6% and 2.1% respectively, indicating a decline in catering services compared to July[3] - The retail sales of durable goods saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points to 2.6%, the lowest since December 2024[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in August fell by 7.1% year-on-year, deepening by 1.8 percentage points, with all three major sectors showing weakness[4] - Real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 19.5%, worsening by 2.5 percentage points[4] - Infrastructure investment also declined by 4.6% year-on-year, with significant drops in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors[4] Real Estate Market - Residential sales area decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, worsening by 2.6 percentage points, while new construction area fell by 18.3%, a decline of 9.1 percentage points[5] - The completion area saw a slight narrowing of the decline to 28.8% year-on-year[5] - National new and second-hand residential prices fell by 0.3% and 0.6% month-on-month respectively, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.0% drop in second-hand housing prices[5] Industrial Output - The industrial added value growth rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2% year-on-year, with mining, utilities, and manufacturing sectors showing varied performance[6] - The manufacturing sector remains in a high growth range despite the impact of "anti-involution" on upstream industrial products[6] Economic Outlook - The report highlights a continued cooling in consumption, investment, and the real estate market, with potential policy measures expected to stimulate the economy[6] - There is a focus on the possibility of increased fiscal expansion to boost consumption and effective investment, alongside potential monetary policy easing to stabilize real estate market expectations[6]

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent 11 contract rising by 1.84% while SC10 contract fell by 1.39%. The market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and mid-term oversupply pressures [2] Precious Metals - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, although volatility has increased [3] Copper - Copper prices saw a pullback after a spike, with high overseas inventory levels affecting market sentiment. Domestic production capacity is stabilizing, and attention is on current copper prices and premiums [4] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices followed the overall strength in non-ferrous metals, breaking through the 21,000 yuan mark. Seasonal demand recovery is expected, with aluminum ingot inventory likely remaining low [5] Alumina - Alumina production capacity exceeds 96 million tons, with rising industry inventory levels. The market is experiencing significant oversupply, leading to price declines [6] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and external supply is tight. The market is experiencing a rebound, but domestic prices lag behind. Short-term strategies should focus on macroeconomic influences [8] Lead - Lead production is expected to decrease due to factory repairs, easing supply pressure. However, demand remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors [9] Steel Industry - Steel prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with rebar demand and production continuing to decline. The construction sector is slowing down, impacting overall demand [15][16] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with stable port inventories and a slight recovery in demand. Steel mills are expected to continue replenishing inventories in the short term [16] Fertilizer Industry - Urea prices are declining due to weak market sentiment and high inventory levels among producers. Agricultural demand remains low, leading to a continuation of weak market conditions [25] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market sentiment improving slightly. Total inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential demand recovery [12] Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight increase in soybean production despite lower yield estimates. Market sentiment remains cautious as weather conditions are expected to impact future supply [37] Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating, with expectations of a large new crop. The market is closely monitoring the purchasing behavior of ginners as new cotton comes to market [44] Sugar - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high production levels in Brazil, while domestic sugar sales are increasing, leading to lower inventory levels [45]