Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the upward limit of equity assets to be opened further through three emerging clues: government investment acceleration, supply-demand relationship management, and improvements in US-China trade relations. Group 1: Government Investment - Government investment is expected to accelerate following the issuance of special bonds and project implementation, with significant activity anticipated in May. The issuance of special bonds began on April 24, and the acceleration of project implementation is expected to lead to increased construction activity, particularly in urban renewal projects [2][4]. - The economic data from April indicates that while equipment and appliance sales are strong, the real estate and narrow infrastructure sectors are lagging, with fixed asset investment showing a year-on-year increase of only 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Relationship - New signals from policies indicate a shift towards managing low prices and addressing "involution" competition. The central bank's report emphasizes a transition from managing high prices to low prices, aiming for high-quality development and preventing disorderly competition [3]. - The past two years have seen nominal growth rates lag behind actual growth, leading to higher real interest rates, which in turn dampen investment and consumption. Improving the supply-demand balance is seen as a pathway to raise the price level and stimulate economic activity [3]. Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials following the Geneva talks are viewed as a positive signal for improving macroeconomic uncertainty. Enhanced relations could lead to simultaneous improvements in the economic fundamentals and risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The week of May 22 saw significant upward pressure on risk-free rates in the US, leading to a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all recorded declines of approximately 2.5% [5]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets, rising by 1.1%, while A-shares showed mixed performance with a slight decline in technology stocks [5][6]. Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market displayed divergence, with gold leading gains amid geopolitical risks and tightening liquidity. Gold prices rose by 5.0% for London gold and 5.6% for COMEX futures, while copper also saw a slight increase [6][7]. - Oil prices adjusted downwards, with Brent crude futures falling by 1.0% during the same period [6]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Industrial production in May is expected to show resilience, with a year-on-year growth estimate of 5.99%, supported by export demand. The actual and nominal GDP growth rates for May are projected at 5.24% and 4.10%, respectively [14]. - Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) estimates indicate slight declines, with PPI expected to be -2.98% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector [15][16]. Group 7: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Manufacturing Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan (2025-2027)," emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries [24]. - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" competition to promote healthy industrial development and enhance market competition [25].

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for the economic impact of tariffs in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risks [6] - It highlights the significant effects of tariffs on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the support for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to improved consumer demand [18] - The article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address "involution" in various industries, identifying sectors that may be caught in this competitive spiral [8][27] Group 2 - The analysis of April economic data indicates a transition from strong "old forces" to a recovery phase for "new forces" in the economy [15] - The article points out the challenges in service consumption recovery, which is facing a supply-demand dilemma beyond just income factors [11] - It notes the differentiation in shipping prices and the stable operation of industrial production, alongside improvements in infrastructure construction [24]

Deep Dive - The article discusses a monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariffs in the U.S., focusing on three main modules: trade, prices, and risks [6]. Hot Topics - The concept of "anti-involution" is introduced, highlighting the government's new approach to address "involution-style" competition, identifying industries potentially caught in this phenomenon [8]. - The article examines the blind spots affecting consumer recovery, noting that while goods consumption is returning to normal, service consumption faces supply-demand challenges [11]. Economic Data Review - The analysis indicates that the previous strong "old forces" in the economy are entering a decline phase, while "new forces" continue to build momentum for recovery [15]. - The fiscal data review suggests that there is still room for acceleration in fiscal policy, with tariffs significantly impacting PPI, but improving consumer demand providing substantial support for core CPI [18]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article reports on the recent U.S. CPI data, which was weaker than market expectations, while retail sales showed stronger performance [20]. - Domestic industrial production remains stable, with improvements in infrastructure projects, although shipping prices are showing divergent trends [24]. Policy Insights - The article outlines recent policy measures aimed at maintaining fair competition in the market and addressing "involution-style" competition [27]. Top Charts - The discussion on the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing highlights certain phenomena that demonstrate this characteristic [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of China's economy in April, driven by coordinated macro policies that have led to stable and rapid growth in key economic indicators [1] - Fixed asset investment in China from January to April increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with equipment investment growing at a remarkable rate of 18.2% and manufacturing investment maintaining a high growth rate of 8.8% [1] - The "old for new" policy has effectively connected the investment, production, and consumption sectors, resulting in significant consumer spending and economic activity [3] Group 2 - In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of industrial enterprises was 3.4%, with new productivity sectors like automotive manufacturing and electrical machinery contributing nearly 30% to this growth [2] - The fixed asset investment growth rate for new productivity themes has rebounded to 15.5%, significantly outpacing traditional manufacturing investment growth by nearly 6 percentage points [2] - The "old for new" policy led to the replacement of 49.416 million consumer goods, generating related consumption of 720 billion yuan, marking a significant boost in retail sales [3] Group 3 - Future projections indicate that China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by incremental fiscal policies and a supportive monetary policy that provides ample liquidity to the real economy [4] - Strategic emerging industries are anticipated to continue their rapid growth, becoming a crucial driver of economic expansion [4] - The impact of U.S.-China tariff tensions on exports is expected to weaken, aided by manufacturing expansion overseas and the deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for "anti-involution" measures in various industries due to increasing competition and supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the context of government policies aimed at fostering a more sustainable and efficient market environment [1][2][20]. Group 1: Reasons for Emphasizing "Anti-Involution" - The industrial sector in China is facing significant supply-demand imbalances, highlighted by a decline in capacity utilization and persistent negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has been negative for 31 consecutive months as of April 2025 [2][8]. - Capacity utilization rates have dropped from 77.7% in Q3 2021 to 75.1% in Q1 2025, indicating underutilization of resources [2][8]. - Local governments are increasingly competing for investment, leading to "involution" in certain sectors, characterized by concentrated efforts in similar industries, aggressive policy competition, and a lack of sustainable project management mechanisms [2][14]. Group 2: Industries with Potential "Involution" Competition - The focus of the "anti-involution" policy is on four key industries: photovoltaic, e-commerce, automotive, and steel, with measures including industry regulations, anti-monopoly enforcement, and capacity adjustments [3][22]. - Based on data indicators, industries such as black metal smelting, electrical machinery, and non-metallic products are identified as having a high degree of "involution" competition due to low capacity utilization and negative PPI growth [4][24]. - Other industries potentially affected include coal mining, automotive manufacturing, chemical raw materials, and pharmaceutical manufacturing, which exhibit similar characteristics of "involution" [4][47]. Group 3: New Aspects of the Current "Anti-Involution" Measures - The current round of "anti-involution" emphasizes industry self-discipline and market mechanisms, contrasting with previous supply-side reforms that focused primarily on traditional heavy industries [5][49]. - There is a stronger emphasis on regional collaboration and technological upgrades, aiming to create a differentiated and complementary industrial development structure while promoting high-quality growth [6][49]. - The government aims to eliminate outdated capacity and improve inefficient production through targeted policies that leverage digital and green technologies [6][49].

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 2025 年 05 月 20 日 "反内卷"的新意？ ——"反内卷"系列专题之一 2025 年政府工作报告明确提出"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"；哪些行业可能存在"内卷 式"竞争，本轮"反内卷"有何不同？本文系统分析，可供参考。 ⚫ 为何当前时点强调"反内卷"？产能利用率与 PPI 双重承压，地方招商引资竞争加剧 当前我国工业领域面临供需失衡压力攀升，突出表现为产能利用率与价格体系的双重承压。 截至 2025 年 4 月，PPI 已连续 31 个月同比负增长，仅短于 2012-2016 年时期。工业产 能利用率自 2021 年三季度的 77.7%持续回落，2025 年一季度降至 75.1%。 同时，近年来各地招商引资竞争加剧，或助长部分领域"内卷式"竞争。国研院调查研究 报告显示，目前地方招商"内卷化"主要表现为四"集中"：一是集中在相同产业领域进 行招商；二是集中比拼政策优惠力度；三是集中在"大项目""大企业""全产业链"方 面招商；四是集中在"招项目"的环节上发力，"管项目"方面缺少可持续性机制。 在此背景下，2024 年底以来，政府和业界越发重视"反内卷"。2024 年中央政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The April economic data indicates a mixed performance in China's economy, with strong industrial production and consumption, but a decline in investment and real estate sectors [1][13]. Demand Side - April's external demand faced challenges due to reciprocal tariffs, leading to a significant drop in exports to the US; however, transshipment trade helped maintain export resilience [1][2]. - Internal demand showed a decline in both investment and consumption, although consumption remained at a high level; investment was dragged down by the real estate and manufacturing sectors [1][7]. Production Side - Industrial production maintained a high level, with April's industrial value-added growth rate dropping to 6.1%, supported by equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [3][5]. - The service sector's production index slightly decreased, but still benefited from low base effects and consumption recovery [3]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [7]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, particularly in information services and computer manufacturing, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.6% and 28.9% respectively [7]. Consumption Patterns - Retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 5.1%, while service retail sales showed an upward trend, particularly in tourism-related sectors [9]. - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while sectors benefiting from trade-in programs performed strongly [9]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate worsened to -2.1%, with new construction area also declining significantly [11]. - Despite the drop in sales volume, housing prices continued to rise, with the decline in new and second-hand housing prices narrowing [11]. Employment and External Factors - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, indicating a steady employment situation despite external challenges [13]. - Future export performance may exceed expectations due to potential European recovery, although this could lead to a more cautious domestic policy response [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the digital transformation journey of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Hunan, emphasizing the role of technology, particularly AI and 5G, in enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness [3][12]. Group 1: Digital Transformation Challenges - Many SMEs face significant challenges in digital transformation, including high technical barriers, substantial costs, and unclear pathways, leading to reluctance or inability to adopt new technologies [3][12]. - The article illustrates the common sentiment among SMEs of being at a crossroads regarding transformation, with many feeling "unable, unwilling, or afraid" to proceed [3]. Group 2: Successful Case Studies - The article details the successful implementation of digital solutions in three companies: Jinbei Electric, Guohua Pharmaceutical, and Xinhongxin Machinery, showcasing how tailored solutions have led to significant operational improvements [6][9][11]. - Jinbei Electric's warehouse transformation involved the integration of a 5G-enabled smart storage system, which replaced manual processes with automated systems, resulting in improved efficiency and reduced error rates [6][7]. - Guohua Pharmaceutical benefited from a unified information platform that connected various management systems, enhancing data visibility and operational transparency, which is crucial for compliance in the pharmaceutical industry [9][11]. - Xinhongxin Machinery adopted a Manufacturing Execution System (MES) that utilized AI to optimize welding parameters, leading to reduced defect rates and increased production capacity [11]. Group 3: Role of Hunan Unicom - Hunan Unicom plays a pivotal role in facilitating the digital transformation of SMEs by providing customized solutions that leverage 5G technology and AI, thus helping companies overcome their operational bottlenecks [3][12]. - As a core service provider in the "Intelligent Empowerment of Ten Thousand Enterprises" initiative, Hunan Unicom has assisted over 130,000 enterprises in adopting cloud and platform technologies, contributing to nearly half of the province's 5G industrial internet benchmark factory constructions [12]. - The company is focused on creating a collaborative ecosystem through partnerships with local governments and industry players, aiming to lower the barriers for SMEs in their digital transformation efforts [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" phase. Although the inventory growth rate of the entire industrial sector remained flat compared to last month, the largest number of industries, 16 in total, are in the "active restocking" state, so it is determined that the industry inventory cycle is in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Inventory Cycle Overview - In March 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of finished - product inventories of industrial enterprises remained flat at 4.2% compared to last month [9][10]. - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. 2. Inventory Cycle Overview (by Industry) - **Upstream Industry**: The upstream industry (mining, accounting for only 2% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [18]. - **Mid - stream Industry**: The mid - stream industry (mid - upstream manufacturing, accounting for 54% of total inventory) is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [19]. - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry (downstream manufacturing and utilities, accounting for 43% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [20]. - **Specific Industries**: - Electronics is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Electrical machinery is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Chemicals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Paper is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Automobiles is in the "active destocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Non - ferrous metals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Instrumentation is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [33]. - General equipment is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [33].

Group 1: Trade Relations and Impact - The China-U.S. trade relationship has shown signs of easing, but the future direction remains uncertain[3] - Industries with low revenue profit margins and high export exposure, such as textiles and furniture, will be significantly impacted by a 30% tariff[6] - High-margin industries with low export exposure, like pharmaceuticals and beverages, will experience limited impact from tariffs[6] Group 2: Identifying Strong Alpha Products - Strong alpha products can be identified through three perspectives: import/export dependency, resilience during previous trade tensions, and high re-export rates[3] - Traditional labor-intensive products, such as textiles and toys, maintain a global supply advantage[3] - Mid-range manufacturing products, like home appliances and electrical machinery, can mitigate trade friction effects through re-export strategies[3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Resilience - During the 2018-2019 trade tensions, certain products, including ships and integrated circuits, showed resilience and even market share growth[9] - Re-export trade through countries like Vietnam and Mexico has played a crucial role in buffering the impact of tariffs[10] - Products with high U.S. import dependency and strong global supply advantages are less affected by U.S. tariff policies[8] Group 4: Risk Factors - Historical data extrapolation may lead to inaccuracies in predicting future impacts[11] - Unexpected changes in U.S. tariff policies could significantly alter market dynamics[11] - Increased scrutiny on origin verification may affect China's re-export capabilities[11]