Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that stainless steel futures prices will undergo high - level adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the MA5 support. Factors such as raw material supply, production, and market demand are considered. The raw material supply is expected to shrink, the cost - end support for production is rising, and the demand is in the traditional off - season, with export facing pressure. However, the inventory pressure is controllable, and the market is gradually entering the de - stocking cycle [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 14,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan compared to the previous period. The 05 - 06 month contract spread is 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5,671 lots, a decrease of 970 lots. The main contract position is 120,397 lots, a decrease of 6,358 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 45,736 tons, an increase of 2,139 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of stainless steel is 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,308.15 tons, a decrease of 5,231.79 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 831,700 tons, a decrease of 78,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 139,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,550 yuan. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,100 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.3194 million tons, a decrease of 538,700 tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,200 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 50.839 million square meters, a decrease of 536.86 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The negotiation between the US and Iran is uncertain. Iran has rejected the US cease - fire proposal, but the White House says the negotiation is ongoing and productive. Iran is prepared for further escalation of the situation. Non - belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. Cosco Shipping Lines has resumed new bookings for general containers to some Middle - East countries but will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz directly. As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity in China is 3.95 billion kilowatts, with solar power and wind power showing significant year - on - year growth. A Fed governor suggests the Fed should cut interest rates to a neutral level this year and raises the inflation forecast. The ECB President says the ECB will act if inflation is triggered by the Middle - East situation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, while the demand lacks positive factors, resulting in a clear pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price of live pigs is running weakly. The main 2605 contract fell 1.94% and continued to bottom out, reaching a minimum of 9830 yuan/ton during the session. Attention should be paid to state purchases, secondary fattening, and capital flows [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 9835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 219,402 lots, an increase of 5,615 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,009 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -65,829 lots, an increase of 1,002 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 10,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main live pig contract was -235 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a decrease of 7.13 million heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year-on-year increase of CPI was 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,452.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.1 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 956.82, an increase of 5.11; the monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,424 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was -141.48 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.3 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was -297.68 yuan/head, a decrease of 14.53 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.7 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.77 million heads, a decrease of 12.27 million heads; the cumulative catering revenue in February was 1.0264 trillion yuan, an increase of 452.6 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, on March 26, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 138,168 heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.34%. The farming end is slaughtering normally, and the slaughter of some large pigs has increased, resulting in supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale farms will reduce the slaughter volume at the end of the month to briefly relieve the supply pressure [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation on March 25, 2026, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides multiple figures related to plate liquidity, including the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [4][5][6][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 25, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 785.652 billion yuan, a - 14.15% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1427.091 billion yuan, a - 2.31% change; the trading - holding ratio was 54.04% [1] - There are figures showing the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [5] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 276.119 billion yuan, a - 23.41% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 859.051 billion yuan, a - 0.19% change; the trading - holding ratio was 30.93% [1] - There are figures showing the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate [5] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metals plate was 579.317 billion yuan, a - 8.06% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 599.735 billion yuan, a + 1.64% change; the trading - holding ratio was 104.09% - The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 923.785 billion yuan, a - 23.89% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 411.593 billion yuan, a + 3.20% change; the trading - holding ratio was 274.18% [1] - There are figures showing the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [5] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 1063.629 billion yuan, a - 17.03% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 540.217 billion yuan, a - 3.90% change; the trading - holding ratio was 184.17% [1] - There are figures showing the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [5] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 336.843 billion yuan, a - 10.20% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 649.485 billion yuan, a - 0.75% change; the trading - holding ratio was 48.94% [1] - There are figures showing the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [5][6] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 247.905 billion yuan, a - 17.34% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 335.402 billion yuan, a - 0.60% change; the trading - holding ratio was 61.49% [2] - There are figures showing the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices rose 0.69% overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, while automobile production and sales, and home appliance production are in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate in a wide range in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand in the peak season [2] - Zinc prices rose 0.46% overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continued to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, automobile production and sales are in positive growth, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand in the peak season [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Overnight price increase: 0.69% [2] - Supply situation: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, and smelting output decreased month - on - month but still grew overall [2] - Demand situation: Power investment is stable, automobile and home appliance production are in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2] - Price trend: May fluctuate in a wide range in the short term [2] - Key factors to watch: US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand in the peak season [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 95,550 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: - 105 yuan/ton [2] - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 12,283 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 91.73 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 359,275 tons [2] - LME inventory daily change: 11,800 tons [2] Zinc - Overnight price increase: 0.46% [2] - Supply situation: Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continued to grow [2] - Demand situation: Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, automobile production and sales are in positive growth, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2] - Price trend: May follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2] - Key factors to watch: US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand in the peak season [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,910 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: - 55 yuan/ton [2] - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 3,081 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 24.76 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 117,100 tons [2] - LME inventory daily change: - 75 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 23,795 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: - 130 yuan/ton [2] - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 3,242 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): 47.37 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 427,675 tons [2] - LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 135,790 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: - 2,580 yuan/ton [2] - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 17,345 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 195.89 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 282,888 tons [2] - LME inventory daily change: 96 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 16,455 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: - 75 yuan/ton [2] - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 1,912 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 35.03 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 283,350 tons [2] - LME inventory daily change: - 725 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 352,430 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: 3,930 yuan/ton [2] - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 44,820 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 245.00 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 8,805 tons [2] - LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2]

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment is dull, and glass and soda ash are oscillating [1] Detailed Summary - **Glass**: The glass futures market had a narrow - range oscillation. In the spot market, prices were stable, with weak transactions driven by rigid demand. The supply - demand situation is characterized by a weak supply - demand pattern, with shrinking corporate profits, more cold - repair production lines, and a continuous decline in output. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, and demand is sluggish. Although inventory has declined from its high level, prices are still under pressure due to disappointing real - estate data [1] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash futures oscillated. In the spot market, transactions were mainly for rigid demand. Supply is increasing, and there is still supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak due to continuous reduction in float glass production and the lack of improvement in photovoltaic glass. Although corporate inventory has been transferred downstream, total inventory still faces high - level pressure. Affected by the Middle - East situation, cost is influenced by energy prices, and soda ash fluctuations have intensified. Future attention should be paid to cost support and the progress of new soda - ash production projects [1] - **Strategy**: Glass and soda ash are both expected to oscillate, with no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2] Group 2: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply disturbance of manganese ore has weakened, and silicon manganese and silicon iron futures are oscillating at high levels [3] Detailed Summary - **Silicon Manganese**: The Middle - East situation has eased. The main contract of silicon manganese futures oscillated at a high level. The spot market was weak, with few alloy - factory quotes and strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price in the northern market was 6050 - 6150 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 6150 - 6250 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production has decreased, apparent demand has increased, and inventory has grown. With a still - loose production capacity and high - inventory pressure, there are significant supply - demand contradictions. Short - term manganese - ore supply is disturbed, and rising freight costs increase manganese - ore costs, leading to a price increase. However, after the Middle - East situation stabilizes, silicon manganese still faces downward pressure. Future attention should be paid to energy prices and manganese - ore shipments [3] - **Silicon Iron**: Silicon iron futures oscillated at a high level. The spot market was in consolidation, with average market activity. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5950 - 6100 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is relatively limited. However, due to improved profits, production has increased significantly. With a loose production capacity, it adds resistance to inventory reduction during the peak season. The tense Middle - East situation has disturbed international energy prices, and concerns about rising electricity prices have led to a slightly stronger price oscillation. Future attention should be paid to energy prices, silicon - iron costs, inventory changes, and silicon - iron warehouse - receipt situations [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to oscillate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The rebound of precious metal prices is mainly catalyzed by the cooling of liquidity concerns due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts, and the market risk appetite has been significantly restored. However, geopolitical risks still exist, and the US does not seem to have the initiative to end the war at any time. If the US and Iran cannot reach an agreement on the armistice conditions, the possibility of conflict escalation cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near future, and the Au2606 contract may fluctuate between 980 yuan/gram and 1060 yuan/gram. Silver has a similar macro logic to gold, and its price is also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2606 contract fluctuating between 17,500 yuan/kilogram and 18,500 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Iran's officials have denied the negotiation with the US. Iran has put forward five conditions for a ceasefire, including the enemy's cessation of "aggression and assassination", prevention of war recurrence, compensation, full end of military operations on all fronts, and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Non-belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination, and COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed new booking business (ordinary containers) to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq [1] - Futures market: On March 25, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1013.96 yuan/gram, up 3.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1016.92 yuan/gram, up 0.29% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 16,900.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,111.00 yuan/kilogram, up 6.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 967,928 lots, and the open interest was 214,737 lots. The night session closed at 18,000 yuan/kilogram, down 0.61% from the afternoon session [2] - US Treasury yields and spreads: On March 25, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.338%, up 0.79 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.451%, up 0.17 BP from the previous trading day [3] - Position and trading volume changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange: On March 25, 2026, on the Au2606 contract, the long position increased by 10,730 lots, and the short position increased by 1,662 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 529,275 lots, down 28.14% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2606 contract, the long position increased by 1,201 lots, and the short position increased by 2,174 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,496,495 lots, down 22.99% from the previous trading day [4] - Precious metal ETF holdings: The gold ETF holdings were 1,052.99 tons, up 0.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,514 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Precious metal arbitrage tracking: On March 25, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was -21.27 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -716.96 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 55.99, down 2.12% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 63.16, down 0.40% from the previous trading day [6] - Fundamental data: On March 25, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 80,426 kilograms, down 8.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 456,886 kilograms, down 14.48% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The situation in Iran and rising oil prices are the main factors driving commodity fluctuations in the short term. There is an inverse correlation between the non - energy sectors such as the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors and oil prices, and there are inflation and recession risks. The domestic policy is proactive, and the economic structure is differentiated. It is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [1][2][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Pay attention to the tail - risk of the Iran situation. After the US - Israel air strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran launched a large - scale counter - attack. On March 19, the Middle East conflict escalated again, and the Qatar LNG facility was damaged. Subsequently, the situation cooled down. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days. The US and Iran may hold talks in Islamabad, but Iran responded negatively to the US's war - ending proposal. The Iran situation mainly affects crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices have driven up the oil chemical and oilseed sectors, also raising concerns about inflation and economic recession. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a longer time, oil prices and related sectors may rise further. The disruption of Middle East natural gas supply may have a more profound impact on Asia - Pacific countries' power and energy supply and be transmitted to agricultural products [1] Global Interest Rate Situation - The Fed maintained interest rates at 3.5% - 3.75% on March 19. Powell said he would not leave the council before the investigation ended and would not cut interest rates until inflation improved. The US 3 - month composite PMI unexpectedly dropped to 51.4. The Bank of England maintained interest rates and removed the "rate - cut" wording. The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged, and the ECB maintained interest rates at 2%. Due to the Middle East conflict, the ECB's policy stance became tougher. The eurozone's March PMI dropped to 50.5, a 10 - month low. Rising oil prices have led to a special copper - oil seesaw pattern, with an inverse correlation between the non - ferrous and energy sectors [2] Domestic Policy and Economy - In 2026, the government's economic growth target is 4.5% - 5%, the deficit rate is about 4%, and the deficit scale is 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. The general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan. A 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bond will be issued. In February, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. In February, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail was 2.8%, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3%. The real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [3] Commodity Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - ferrous, precious metals sectors and oil prices. Indonesia plans to levy export tariffs on coal and nickel. The IEA has approved the release of a record 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves. The EU has simplified some natural gas import rules, Russia is considering early "gas cut - off" to Europe, and South Korea has launched a resource security crisis warning. The oilseed sector in agricultural products is affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices. The black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [4] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [5] Important News - On March 24, Trump said the US was in communication with Iran, and Iran hoped to reach an agreement. The US proposed a one - month cease - fire plan to discuss a 15 - point agreement to end the war. The Fed's Barr said interest rates may need to be maintained at a stable level for some time to deal with inflation. Nickel prices rose after Indonesia approved export tariffs on nickel. Iran's permanent mission to the UN stated that non - hostile ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely under certain conditions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is in the process of repair, with most Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The macro - policy in 2026 is to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, and a special ultra - long - term Treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [1]. - The financial data in February shows a pattern of "stable total volume and structural differentiation". The credit growth rate continues to decline, and the household credit demand is weak, which has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.90% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year is 9.00% with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decrease rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.62, with a month - on - month increase of 0.41 and a growth rate of 0.41%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9021, with a month - on - month increase of 0.007 and a growth rate of 0.10%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.27%; DR007 is 1.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.34%; R007 is 1.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decrease rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.47, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.97%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.97% [10]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on March 25, 2026, are 102.49 yuan, 105.91 yuan, 108.16 yuan, and 111.18 yuan respectively, with the corresponding price changes of 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.01% [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is 0.077 yuan, 0.097 yuan, 0.080 yuan, and 0.182 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to February, the fiscal operation started smoothly. The general public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.6% year - on - year. The government - funded revenue decreased by 16% year - on - year due to the drag of land sales, while the expenditure increased by 16% year - on - year due to the accelerated issuance of special bonds [2]. - On March 25, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 78.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.319%, 1.435%, 1.511%, and 1.505% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between spot bond maturity and futures cross - varieties [34][35][37]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, as well as the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][46]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [48][61]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][60]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and two - year net basis trends of the TL main contract [64][67]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: The repurchase rate has declined, and the Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - External shocks still exist, but there is a short-term window of relief and moderation in the capital market. The probability of a short-term oversold rebound in stock indices has increased. In the long run, stock indices are still bullish. [1] - Bond markets are expected to fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit-taking behavior in trading. [1] - The situation in the Middle East remains complex, affecting the prices of various commodities. Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and geopolitical factors. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Indices - External shocks persist, but short-term oversold rebound probability rises due to marginal changes in US attitude and potential opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Policy support may increase after market decline. In the long run, stock indices are bullish. [1] Bonds - Fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors including allocation demand, monetary policy easing expectations, fiscal supply pressure, and trading profit-taking. [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After an oversold rebound, pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation. [1] - **Aluminum**: Price fluctuations intensify, but supply disruptions support prices. Monitor the production dynamics of Middle Eastern aluminum plants. [1] - **Alumina**: Rising prices are supported by factors such as energy prices, freight, and potential export quotas in Guinea, but the supply surplus limits the upside. [1] - **Zinc**: After a rebound due to improved market sentiment, investors are advised to wait and see due to high uncertainty in the Middle East. [1] - **Nickel**: Prices may be volatile and bullish due to cost concerns from export taxes in Indonesia. Pay attention to RKAB approvals, policies, and macro sentiment. Look for low-buying opportunities while controlling risks. [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Futures prices are volatile and bullish. Pay attention to demand acceptance. Short-term operations with low-buying opportunities and risk control are recommended. [1] - **Tin**: After a rebound, investors are advised to wait and see due to high uncertainty in the Middle East. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Prices rebound as oil prices and dollar liquidity tensions ease, but geopolitical risks remain, and prices may fluctuate. [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices rebound but are limited by geopolitical factors. Short-term wide-range fluctuations are expected. [1] Industrial Silicon - Supply is resuming, demand is weak, and inventories are being reduced. [1] Polysilicon - There are liquidity risks, with strong storage demand but weak power demand. [1] Carbonate Lithium - In the de-stocking cycle, with low total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average. Prices are mainly supported by costs. [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: In the de-stocking cycle, with low demand. Prices are mainly supported by costs. Treat it as a volatile market. [1] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Supply and demand are strong, in the de-stocking cycle, but inventory levels are high. Test the de-stocking pressure. Use a volatile mindset and consider positive arbitrage positions. [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts and cost support are positive factors. [1] - **Silicon Iron**: Short-term supply and demand are weak, and prices fluctuate due to geopolitical conflicts. [1] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are volatile. [1] - **Soda Ash**: Follows glass. In the short term, affected by geopolitical conflicts; in the medium term, supply is more abundant, and prices are under pressure. [1] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal may have a rapid and sharp rebound, but the development of the war is uncertain. If the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, many varieties may reach their peak, and long positions should be closed in time. [1] Oils and Fats - After a high and then a fall, the expected driving force from crude oil weakens. Be wary of profit-taking and potential callbacks. Long-term bullish view remains. Pay attention to factors such as Indonesian biodiesel production, US biodiesel policies, and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Internationally, global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, high inventory, weak restocking willingness, and import substitution pressure exist. Prices are expected to rise in the long run with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations. [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestically, supply is abundant, and the market is shifting from tight balance to slight surplus. Zheng sugar is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal-strong and external-weak pattern. [1] - **Corn**: With increased supply and reduced trading sentiment, the short-term market is expected to fluctuate and correct, but the correction range is limited. [1] - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: In May, soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the market is expected to reflect delivery pressure. Wait for a correction to layout long positions in the far month. The M5 - M9 spread may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to be in a reverse spread. [1] - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamental situation is weak, and short-term weak fluctuations are expected. [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, expectations are strong. Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages and have reduced production. [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is affected by the Middle East situation, and there are concerns about supply interruptions. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is limited, but the price of crude oil affects asphalt. [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The climate in the production area is normal, and normal tapping is expected. The futures-spot price difference is at a relatively high level. [1] - **BR Rubber**: The cost of butadiene has strong support, and there are expectations of increased exports. The profit of private cis-butadiene rubber plants is in deficit, and there are expectations of reduced production. [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the supply risk is significant, and the polyester industry chain may face production decline. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is affected by the Middle East situation, with shortages of raw materials and increased prices. [1] - **Styrene**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, with supply shortages of ethylene and benzene, and non-integrated producers face profit losses. [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment is weak, and there is limited upside. There is support from cost and anti-inversion. [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high, and inventory is at a historical high. [1] - **PE and PVC**: Affected by geopolitical factors, raw material supply is limited, and the fundamentals are weak. PVC has a more optimistic future outlook with potential capacity reduction. [1] - **LPG**: The price is affected by the Middle East situation, with a strong trend. The domestic PDH operating rate is declining, and the demand is short-term bearish. There is a divergence between the domestic and international markets. [1] Shipping - The container shipping market on the European route is affected by war sentiment. After the off-season in March, there are expectations of price increases. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict situation remains unclear, and investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The global stagflation expectation faces significant uncertainty and volatility, and attention should be paid to the potential adverse impact of the recurrence of the geopolitical situation on risk assets. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomics - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to affect the financial market. The US has proposed a 15 - point plan to Iran for a comprehensive cease - fire, but Iran has not clearly responded, and the negotiation may still be in the intermediary - matchmaking stage. The probability of the tail risk of further deterioration of the situation has slightly decreased [1]. Domestic Macroeconomics - The "15th Five - Year Plan"纲要 has adjusted the target of the added value of the core industries of the digital economy, added indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy, and improved relevant systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and the external demand remains resilient [1]. Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. Market Conditions of Various Sectors Financial Sector - Stock index futures continue to rebound, but the divergence between long and short positions intensifies; stock index options' implied volatility continues to decline, and the term structure improves; bond markets fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiation. Gold and silver show a trend of oscillating strongly in the short term due to the US releasing peace - negotiation signals [4]. Shipping Sector - The spot market of container shipping on the European line has declined, and the passage through the strait may improve marginally. The freight rate of MSK has decreased month - on - month [4]. Black Building Materials Sector - The cost support of steel and iron ore has loosened, and the disk performance is under pressure; the cost of coke continues to rise, and the expectation of price increase is strong; the auction of coking coal continues to rise, and the disk fluctuates at a high level; the energy valuation of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon has bottomed out and rebounded [4]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - The pessimistic sentiment has eased, and the basic metals have stopped falling and oscillated. The prices of aluminum, nickel, and stainless steel show a trend of oscillating strongly [4]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains deadlocked, and the energy and chemical products continue to oscillate at a high level. The prices of various products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are in an oscillating state [5]. Agricultural Sector - There is a co - existence of weak reality and strong expectation. The double - meal market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The prices of various agricultural products such as grains, livestock, and rubber are mostly in an oscillating state [5]. Market Fluctuation Data Financial Market - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, foreign exchange, and interest rates are presented. For example, the daily increase of CSI 300 futures is 1.6%, and the weekly decrease is 0.81% [7]. Industry Index - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of various industry indexes are shown. For example, the daily increase of the non - ferrous metals industry index is 3.01%, and the monthly decrease is 18.55% [8][9]. Overseas Commodities - On March 24, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are presented. For example, the daily increase of NYMEX WTI crude oil is 0.3%, and the weekly decrease is 9.89% [10][11]. Domestic Main Commodities - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of domestic shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy and chemical products, and agricultural products are shown. For example, the daily decrease of container shipping on the European line is 2.78%, and the monthly increase is 51.86% [12][13][14].