1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. The production of rebar has been rising, demand is low, and inventory is accumulating. Many steel mills are at the break - even point or in loss, leading to an increase in maintenance. [1] - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply has increased slightly, while demand has decreased, and inventory has declined. [1] - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate weakly with fluctuations in the short - term. Due to factors such as the military parade and weak steel market, supply is affected, and demand is weakening. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term. For manganese silicon, production is increasing, and cost support is weak; for ferrosilicon, production is at a high level, and demand and cost factors are complex. [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Rebar**: As of September 1, some steel mills in Tangshan carried out blast furnace maintenance, with an estimated daily impact on hot metal of about 122,300 tons. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume rebounded. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The i2601 contract closed at 771.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Port spot prices were strong. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore demand decreased, and inventory at ports and steel mills declined. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1112.5 yuan/ton on September 3, down 6 yuan/ton. Spot prices in the Mongolian coal market were mixed. Supply was tight in the short - term due to the military parade, and demand was weak due to high steel billet inventory and low steel prices. [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1596.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports were stable. Coking enterprise profits were good, but production was restricted, and demand was weakening due to the high - level inventory of steel billets and low steel prices. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded, with the main contract closing at 5744 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The market price was 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton. Production was increasing, and cost support was weak. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5528 yuan/ton, up 0.77%. The market price was about 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. Production was at a high level, and new steel tenders were ongoing with price cuts. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For rebar, the 10 - 1 spread was - 70.0 (up 6.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48.0 (up 2.0); for hot - rolled coil, the 10 - 1 spread was 12.0 (down 5.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 14.0 (down 3.0); for other varieties, the spreads also showed different changes. [4] - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 193.0 (down 18.0), and the basis of the 01 - contract was 123.0 (down 12.0). [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions of each variety had different changes. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai was 3240.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0), and the price in Beijing was 3180.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0). [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Rebar's long - process profit was - 17.2 (down 17.2), short - process profit was 25.6 (up 48.4), and various spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore spread also changed. [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][8][9][10][11][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of various varieties from 2022 - 2026. [17][18][19][21][22][23][24] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of various varieties from 2001 - 2026. [26][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][40] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) from 2020 - 2025. [42][43][44][46] - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 - 2025. [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the field of black commodities research. [53][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - International gold prices hit a new record high, and the A - share market had an adjustment. Market sentiment was affected by various factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence, Trump's tariff issues, and economic data from different countries [3][4]. - Different commodity markets showed diverse trends. For example, some commodities were expected to be in a supply - demand imbalance, while others were affected by production changes, policy adjustments, and market sentiment [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and Trump called for a strong interest - rate cut. Gold prices rose to a new high due to concerns about the Fed's independence and tariff issues. The market should pay attention to the upcoming non - farm data and the increase in long - short games [14][15]. - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Multiple high - ranking Japanese LDP officials expressed their intention to resign, and concerns about the UK economy intensified. The dollar index rose significantly in the short term, and market risk appetite declined [20]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: The number of new A - share accounts in August was 2.65 million, with a significant year - on - year and month - on - month increase. The A - share market adjusted on September 2, and the subsequent trend depends on major events [22][23]. - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump planned to appeal the global tariff case to the US Supreme Court. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract, and the US Treasury Secretary planned to interview Fed chair candidates. The US stock market adjusted, and investors should pay attention to volatility [25][26][27]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading in September. The bond market was in a volatile trend, and it was not recommended to chase long positions after the market rose [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased to 65%. The US weekly export inspection data met expectations, and the domestic soybean meal supply was sufficient but demand was also strong [32]. - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: The cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 72.8% as of August 30. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, but the good - quality rate was high. The external market was under seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton market was expected to be in a short - term shock [34][35][36]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, and Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. It was recommended to go long on palm oil at low prices [37][39]. - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: Port coal prices were weakly falling. Due to weak demand and transportation restrictions during the parade, coal prices were expected to continue the seasonal decline but be supported at around 650 yuan [40]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: Grangex announced the restart of Sydvaranger mining. The overall raw material market was under pressure, but it was expected to be in a shock market in September [41]. - **Agricultural Products (Red Dates)**: The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable. The fundamentals of red dates were not significantly changed, and it was recommended to wait and see [43][44]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch enterprises in different regions had losses. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the price difference between rice flour and starch was at a low level [45]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. The spot price of corn was strengthening, but the upward space of the futures price was limited [45][46]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Argentina approved Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project. The supply - demand imbalance caused by supply reduction might be reflected in high - frequency data in September, and it was recommended to try long positions and pay attention to positive spreads [48][49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was cancelled. The polysilicon price was expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and it was recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [50][53]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The LME lead market was weak, while the domestic lead market's supply was expected to tighten and demand to improve. It was recommended to go long on lead at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [54]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was slowly increasing, and the market was expected to be in a short - term shock between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: The LME zinc market was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc market was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads [59][60]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: The copper market was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and industry policies. The copper price was expected to be supported in the short term, and it was recommended to be long on a short - term basis [65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price was firm, and the nickel price was expected to be in a range - bound shock. It was recommended to go long at low prices [66][67]. - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Kazakhstan's crude oil production in August increased by 2% month - on - month. The oil price was expected to be in a shock [68]. - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: The CEA price was in a short - term shock and weakening trend [69][70]. - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: The PX price was in a short - term shock adjustment [72][73]. - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: The PTA market was in a short - term shock adjustment with improved fundamentals [74][75]. - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda spot price was expected to be in a high - level shock [76][77]. - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The pulp market was in a weak shock [77][78]. - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: The PVC market was expected to be in a shock [79][80]. - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The styrene market was in a weak operation recently [81][83]. - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: The bottle chip market had new capacity plans, and the demand was moving towards the off - season [84][85]. - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: The soda ash market was weakening, and it was recommended to short at high prices [86][87]. - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The float glass market was in a weak trend, and it was recommended to focus on arbitrage [88][89]. - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates)**: The container freight rate market was under supply pressure, and the price was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to short on emotional rallies in October and long after the price decline in December [91][92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - As the Fed's rate - cut expectations rise, attention should be paid to precious metals [1] - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and Powell's dovish stance paves the way for a September rate cut, making the overseas inflation rise path smoother [2] - For commodities, industrial products should be bought on dips [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. China's July economic data showed mixed performance: the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year in dollar terms, money supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were weak, and investment data faced pressure. In August, the official manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.4, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated expansion. A - shares showed a volatile and differentiated trend on September 1. In the US, the August PMI continued to improve, and the "big beautiful" bill may support subsequent consumption. The US appellate court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal [1] - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle. Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on August 22 turned dovish, which cleared the way for a September rate cut. In the eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI reached a 38 - month high, and factory production growth was strong [2] Commodity Analysis - The black and new energy metal sectors in China are most sensitive to the supply - side. Precious metals and agricultural products can be considered due to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" in the non - ferrous, energy, and chemical sectors is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental signals and attention to Sino - US negotiations. On September 1, the precious metals market performed well, with silver reaching its highest level since 2011 and gold rising for the fifth consecutive day [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be bought on dips [4] Important News - On the afternoon of September 1, the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting was held in Tianjin. The overall stock market showed that the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated sideways, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon. Black - series futures fell, and the eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.7. Spot gold reached $3480 per ounce [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Bullish in the short - term, suggest tilting towards IF or IH to reduce risk [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Limited upside due to short - term central bank interest rate risk warning, but asset shortage and weak economy are favorable [1] - **Gold**: Bullish due to safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Silver**: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to be strong due to Fed interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness [1] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range, affected by domestic consumption off - season and Fed interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but look for long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Limited downside, be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term rebound with macro factors, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading in a range, look for selling - hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Stronger in the short - term with improved macro sentiment [1] - **Silicon for Mining**: Bearish due to supply resumption and hedging pressure [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish with capacity reduction expectations and low terminal installation willingness [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Glass**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure persists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Hold off on new positions, expect short - term consolidation [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Hold off on new positions, similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Hold off on new positions, affected by ICE rapeseed price and trade policies [1] - **Cotton**: Bullish in the short - term, pay attention to time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Bullish but with limited upside, pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **Corn**: Expected to trade at a low level in the short - term, pay attention to new grain listing [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited downside, expected to trade in a range [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread [1] - **Logs**: Expected to trade in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [1] - **Hogs**: Bearish due to increasing supply and decreasing cost [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trading in a range, affected by Indian procurement, OPEC+ production, and tariff issues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Trading in a range, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short - term following crude oil, long - term demand may be overestimated [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by rainfall, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to inventory and autumn maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Bearish due to production recovery and downstream maintenance expectations [1] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by industry reform rumors, supply and demand changes [1] - **Styrene**: Affected by industry reform rumors and market trading volume [1] - **PE**: Price oscillating weakly, affected by export, domestic demand, and cost [2] - **PVC**: Trading in a range, affected by maintenance, orders, and inventory [2] - **Olefins**: Driven by market rumors and supply - demand changes [2] - **FEI**: Rebound due to multiple factors, pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation [2] - **US Freight**: Supply exceeds demand, freight rate declining [2] 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities. In general, the macro - financial environment has a significant impact on the market. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, asset shortage, and weak economic conditions are important factors affecting the prices of financial and commodity assets. For different industries, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment all play crucial roles in determining price trends. Some commodities are expected to be strong due to positive factors like supply tightness or increased demand, while others face downward pressure because of oversupply, weak demand, or policy - related risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial Industry The overall macro - financial environment is complex. The stock index is supported by sufficient market liquidity, while treasury bonds are affected by both favorable long - term factors and short - term interest rate risk warnings. Precious metals are driven by safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] Non - ferrous Metals Industry Supply and demand dynamics, along with macro - economic factors and geopolitical events (such as labor unrest in Indonesia), are the main drivers of non - ferrous metal prices. Some metals are expected to be strong due to supply concerns or positive macro sentiment, while others face challenges from oversupply or weak domestic demand [1] Black Metals Industry The black metals industry is facing supply - demand imbalances, with high inventory levels and weak demand in some segments. Anti - involution is a long - term issue, and the market is trying to balance supply and demand by adjusting prices [1] Agricultural Products Industry Prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as seasonality, international trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. Some products are expected to be strong in the long - term but may experience short - term corrections, while others are trading in a range or facing downward pressure [1] Energy and Chemicals Industry The energy and chemicals industry is influenced by global supply - demand dynamics, production capacity changes, and market rumors. Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ production decisions and international trade issues, while chemical products are affected by factors such as production recovery, inventory changes, and industry reform rumors [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has accumulated significant gains and may enter a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next stage of direction decision. The bond market may strengthen, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate within a certain range. Precious metals have reached new highs, and investors need to be cautious when going long. The shipping index shows a downward trend, and investors can consider going long on the 12 - contract on dips. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Monday, the A - share market opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed higher. The TMT sector remained hot, while the large - finance sector corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis of the main contracts declined [2][3]. - News: China's economic prosperity continued to expand in August. South Korea's exports in August showed strong growth, especially in semiconductors and automobiles [3]. - Capital: On September 1st, the A - share trading volume remained high, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan by the central bank [4]. - Operation suggestion: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.29%, - 0.05%, - 1.34%, and - 1.61% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed a differentiated trend [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan. The liquidity at the beginning of the month was generally stable [4][5][6]. - Fundamental: The manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight increase, with production and new orders rebounding, and external demand remaining resilient [6]. - Operation suggestion: The bond market may strengthen. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%, and it is recommended to operate within the range [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Overnight, gold and silver prices rose significantly due to the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical instability in Europe. Gold reached a new high of $3475.35 per ounce, and silver reached a new high since 2011 at $40.674 per ounce [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and institutional investors' demand for precious metals continues to increase. However, investors need to be cautious when going long unilaterally. For silver, although the industrial demand is relatively weak, the price may continue to rise [10]. - Capital: The positions of gold and silver ETFs increased significantly in August, and the speculative net long positions rebounded [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot price: As of September 2nd, the spot price quotes of major shipping companies showed a slow downward trend [11]. - Shipping index: As of September 1st, the SCFIS European route index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamental: As of September 2nd, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI and manufacturing PMI in August were above 50, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price continued to decline. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for the 12 - contract [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to oscillate. Investors can wait and see or go long on the 12 - contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the supply was tight. The spot trading became more active with the arrival of the traditional peak season [14]. - Macro: The Fed's attitude has become more dovish, and the market expects the probability of an interest - rate cut in September to increase [15]. - Supply: The TC of copper concentrate was at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased month - on - month, and the production in September is expected to continue to decline [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased. The domestic demand was still resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [16]. - Inventory: The LME copper inventory decreased, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [16]. - Logic: The Fed's dovish attitude boosts copper prices, but the upside space is limited. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". Copper prices may at least oscillate [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 1st, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply was gradually becoming more relaxed [17]. - Supply: In July 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased [18]. - Logic: The futures price continued to decline. The market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The downside space is limited, and the upside needs new catalysts [19][20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19][20]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - Supply: In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased [20]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries increased [21]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [21]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated at a high level. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the improvement of fundamentals supported the price, but the high price suppressed downstream procurement. It is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan, and pay attention to the pressure at 21,000 yuan [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 1st, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [22]. - Supply: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was affected by the off - season, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [23]. - Demand: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated downward with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the cost was supported. The demand is expected to improve in September. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan [24][25]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan. If the upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, investors can consider the arbitrage of going long on AD and short on AL [25]. Zinc - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the spot trading improved [25]. - Supply: The TC of zinc concentrate remained high. The zinc ore supply was loose, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [26]. - Demand: The operating rates of the primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, but the decline space was limited. The downstream procurement increased after the price decline [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - Logic: The supply is expected to be loose, and the price may oscillate. The upward breakthrough needs better demand and interest - rate cut expectations, and the downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and continuous inventory accumulation [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - Spot: On September 1st, the price of 1 tin decreased slightly, and the spot trading was stagnant [28]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore import volume decreased in July, and the supply was still tight. The tin ingot import volume increased [29][30]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory decreased [30][31]. - Logic: The national policy boosts the demand expectation. The supply is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply [31]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate widely [31][32]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was average, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained at a high level, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [33]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated upward. The cost was supported, and the supply - demand fundamentals changed little. The price may oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34][36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was strong. The price of chrome ore was supported by cost [36][38]. - Supply: The domestic stainless - steel production in August is expected to increase [37]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [37]. - Logic: The futures price was strong. The cost was supported, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 1st, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume decreased [39]. - Supply: The production in August increased, but the supply was expected to contract recently [40]. - Demand: The demand was stable and optimistic, and the demand in September is expected to increase [40]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly in all links last week [42]. - Logic: The futures price was weak, and the main - contract center moved down. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the price may oscillate widely between 72,000 - 78,000 yuan [43]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and widely [43][44]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The futures price decreased significantly, and the spot price followed the decline [44]. - Cost and profit: The cost support may weaken, and the steel profit decreased significantly in August [44]. - Supply: The iron - element production increased from January to August. The steel production reached a new high this year, and the production may decline seasonally after the military parade [44]. - Demand: The domestic demand may weaken seasonally, and the export remained at a high level. The demand is expected to improve in September and October [45]. - Inventory: The inventory increased significantly in August, and it is expected to increase more slowly in the future [45]. - View: The steel price may continue to decline. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to ore [46]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [47]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore decreased [47]. - Basis: The basis of different varieties was calculated [47]. - Demand: The steel - mill profit rate was at a high level, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment increased significantly, and the port arrival volume increased [48]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, the port - clearance volume decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [49]. - View: The iron - ore price may not have a strong upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49]. Coking Coal - Spot: The spot price oscillated weakly, and the coal - mine inventory increased slightly [50]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the import - coal price decreased [51][53]. - Demand: The coking - plant and blast - furnace operating rates decreased due to production restrictions [51][52][53]. - Inventory: The coal - mine, port, and border - port inventories increased slightly, and the coking - plant and steel - mill inventories decreased slightly [52][53]. - View: The coking - coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [53]. Coke - Spot: The seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the eighth - round increase was blocked [54][56]. - Supply: The coking - plant operating rate decreased due to production restrictions [54][56]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased, and the demand may be affected by production - reduction policies [55][56]. - Inventory: The coking - plant, port, and steel - mill inventories all increased slightly [56]. - View: The coke price may decline in the future. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coke [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The domestic soybean - meal spot price increased on September 1st, and the trading volume decreased. The rapeseed - meal trading volume was 100 tons [57]. - Fundamental news: There were various news about soybean production and trade around the world, such as the expected increase in US soybean crushing in July and the decrease in EU soybean imports [57][58]. - Market outlook: The US soybean yield is expected to be high, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the market. The domestic meal price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the 3000 - 3050 range [59][60]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated upward on September 1st [61]. - Market data: The profit of live - pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [61][62]. - Market outlook: The short - term supply tightened, which boosted the price, but the duration may be limited. It is recommended to operate with caution [62].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面明显下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3115 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 偏弱运行 | | | 下跌 45 元/吨，跌幅为 1.42%，持仓增加 20.4 万手。现货价格下跌，成交处于低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格下跌 20 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 40 元/吨至 3170 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 8.93 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 5.74%至 490.84 万吨，热卷库存增加 2.75%至 209.96 万吨。 | | | | 进入 9 月份，建材累积还出现加快，对市场情绪形成一定影响。另据克而瑞地产研究统计，今年 8 月百强 | | | | 房企实现销售操盘金额 2070.4 亿元，环比降低 1.9%，同比降低 17.6%，同比降幅相对于 7 月收窄了 6.7 个 | | | | 百分点，单月业绩规模继续保持在历史较低水平，这也是百 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Iron ore: Subject to fluctuating macro - expectations, it will experience wide - range oscillations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Due to rapid inventory accumulation, steel prices will oscillate and correct [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: With poor market sentiment, they will show weak oscillations [2][9]. - Coke and coking coal: They will experience wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - Logs: They will show repeated oscillations [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore (12601) was 766.0 yuan/ton, down 21.5 yuan/ton (-2.73%), and the position decreased by 19,658 hands. Among spot prices, the price of imported ore such as PB (61.5%) dropped by 14.0 yuan/ton, while some domestic ore prices rose. The basis and spreads also changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength is 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,039 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-2.19%), and the position decreased by 196,302 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,320 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton (-1.37%), and the position decreased by 85,585 hands. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of August 28, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, and inventory increased by 16.35 tons; hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.5 tons, and inventory increased by 4.02 tons. In mid - August, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed [7][8]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also decreased. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 1, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Some steel mills' procurement prices of ferrosilicon decreased. In July, South Africa's manganese ore exports increased [10][11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) declined, with decreases of 32.5 yuan/ton (-2.8%) and 48.5 yuan/ton (-3.0%) respectively. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [12]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of both coke and coking coal is 0 [12]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [17]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of logs is - 1 [17].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In August, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, indicating a marginal recovery within the contraction zone[3] - The new orders index rose to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the new export orders index also increased by 0.1 percentage points to 47.2%[4] - The production index reached 50.8%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase, indicating active manufacturing activities[4] Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - The main raw materials purchase price index and the factory price index increased by 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, marking three consecutive months of recovery[7] - The "anti-involution" policy has significantly boosted the factory price index in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector, with indices rising above the threshold line[2] - However, demand weakness may hinder overall performance in the manufacturing supply chain, as evidenced by a decline in new orders in the electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing sectors[2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, remaining in the expansion zone[9] - The new orders index for the non-manufacturing sector was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating some improvement in demand[9] - The construction sector's PMI fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, indicating a contraction in construction activity[13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance driven by both investment and trading activities, with a notable increase in net profit and significant growth in investment income from mining operations [1][2] - The future outlook highlights continued growth in mining investments and a dual-driven strategy of trade and investment [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 63.657 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.448 billion yuan, up 30.90% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 35.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.37% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.34% [1] Investment Income - Investment income from joint ventures reached 1.097 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 799 million yuan year-on-year, with significant contributions from projects like BHP and Ivanhoe [2] - The report indicates that the company has established long-term stable partnerships with globally recognized mining enterprises [4] Trading Performance - The trading segment for non-ferrous and ferrous metals generated revenues of 51.055 billion yuan and 12.391 billion yuan respectively, with non-ferrous trading up 14.35% and ferrous trading down 35.83% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for non-ferrous and ferrous metals was 1.75% and 1.22%, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.39 and +2.68 percentage points respectively [2] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing expansion of mining investments, particularly in the BHP copper mine, which saw a 67% increase in copper production in H1 2025 [3] - The company is positioned as a key distributor for various mining products in China, enhancing its competitive advantage in the market [4] Profit Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.911 billion yuan, 3.337 billion yuan, and 3.591 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15x, 13x, and 12x [5][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market's main contradiction is high supply, weak - stable demand, and continuous inverse - seasonal inventory accumulation. The short - term rebar futures may trade in a narrow range. [1] - The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. [1] - The coking coal and coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, affected by factors such as safety inspections, environmental restrictions, and demand changes. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited significant drivers. [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. National rebar production, social inventory, and apparent demand changed, with supply - demand data looking weak. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 2%. Port spot prices were strong. Supply and demand factors were mixed, with a slight drop in global shipments and a decline in iron - water production. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.82%. Spot prices showed a mixed trend. Supply was restricted by safety inspections, and demand faced short - term pressure. [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Port spot prices fell. Supply was constrained by regional restrictions, and demand from steel mills slowed. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened slightly, closing at 5842 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Production costs were stable, and supply - demand was relatively balanced. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened, closing at 5624 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. Spot prices in some regions dropped. Production was slightly down, and demand was still low. [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (e.g., 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) were provided, along with their latest values and changes. [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (e.g., rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities was presented, including their latest values and changes. [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][9][10][11][14] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts displayed the basis of main contracts for various commodities over different time periods. [16][17][20][22] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts presented the spreads of inter - period contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities. [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - commodity contracts (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities. [40][41][42][44] - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: Charts depicted the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025. [45][46][49] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52]