2025年6月26日至27日，国家能源局与浙江省人民政府将在浙江省宁波市联合举办上海合作组织能源部 长会议及配套活动。大会以"创新融合，能动未来"为主题，旨在充分利用主席国契机，凝聚各方共识， 推动上合组织框架下能源合作向更高质量、更深层次发展！ （来源：中国电力报） ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-25 以伊冲突缓和，聚酯产业链大幅回落 市场要闻与数据 6月24日，PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG主力合约分别下跌4.57%4.17%、3.03%、3.69%、3.82%，主要原因是伊朗和以色列 停战下原油大跌，截至收盘时原油主力合约SC2508跌幅达到9%(跌停)。 周末美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，伊朗对美国的回击力度有限仅仅袭击了卡塔尔一个空的美军基地且在袭击前提前通 知美国随后，周二特朗普宣布伊以两国停火，战争将快速结束。局势显著缓和后，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油 溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅，并带动能源板块整体下跌。 同时，伊朗的石化装置正在逐步重启中，周一隆众资讯消息称，伊朗因战争因素停车的一套EG装置正在重启，据 悉伊朗境内其他乙二醇装置近期也将陆续重启。PX装置暂没有消息，但若停战，预计也会陆续重启，市场担忧情 绪明显缓解。聚酯产业链期货产品也将重新回归基本面交易，关注前期原料高价下的聚酯减产计划在原料下跌后 还能否兑现；另外PX基本面依然偏紧但市场商谈氛围已有所回落。后期宏观方面7月还有OPEC+会议:关税延期时 限到期等需要关注，地缘端也需要关注 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for US stocks is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the prospects of fiscal and monetary policies are gradually becoming clear. Although Trump's policies have had less - than - expected impacts, they have changed the market trading logic. The stagflation risk persists, and the path to a soft - landing through interest rate cuts has become more complicated. The high valuation of US stocks is being challenged [1][19]. - Corporate earnings are expected to weaken, but the growth rate remains resilient. The market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, but it is still estimated that the annual earnings growth rate can reach 9%. The valuation expansion space is limited due to high macro - environment uncertainty [2][69]. - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure, with the downside risk higher than the upside risk. However, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner in the second half of the year. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and seize the opportunity to allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks [3][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025H1 US Stock Market Review: Macro - Policy Games Increase Market Volatility - In early 2025, after Trump took office, the market traded around his policy paths. In the first quarter, the focus was on reducing government spending, which initially worried the market about a potential recession. However, the actual reduction was far less than expected. Since April, the threat of reciprocal tariffs has affected market sentiment, but the market recovered quickly as tariff negotiations eased [14]. - Although Trump's policies had less - than - expected implementation, they changed the market trading logic. The emergence of DeepSeek weakened the US's technological monopoly, shaking the "American Exceptionalism" and challenging the high valuation of US stocks [19] 3.2 2025H2 US Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 The US Economy Shows Stagflation Characteristics - The US economy is likely to experience mild stagflation in the second half of the year, with the economy continuing to decline and inflation rising. The stock market has not fully priced in the economic downturn [20]. - Hard economic data has not deteriorated significantly, but soft data has been under pressure. Trade policy uncertainties have increased short - term fluctuations in soft data, leading to deviations in private - sector investment and consumption behavior. Consumer and business confidence have been affected, and the "import - rush" effect has overdrafted future consumption and investment capabilities [23]. - Consumer confidence and inflation expectations have fluctuated with trade policies. Although consumer spending has not declined significantly, the growth rate of durable - goods consumption has slowed down after the "import - rush" effect faded. The employment market is gradually weakening, and corporate investment and inventory growth are expected to decline [25][34][43] 3.2.2 The Prospects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies are Gradually Becoming Clear - The effective tariff rate in the US has declined but remains at a high level. After the expiration of the tariff suspension in July, the tariff policy will become clearer. Whether the tariff is extended or implemented, it will help reduce market uncertainty [56]. - The US fiscal policy is still in an expansionary phase. The "Great Beauty Act" is expected to increase the deficit in the next decade. The US government's debt - ceiling issue may lead to an increase in bond supply in the third quarter, increasing the risk of a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds [58][59][60]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a cautious approach in the third quarter, waiting to assess the impact of macro - policies on inflation and growth. The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but the rate - cut trading will be more complicated in the second half of the year due to rising inflation [64] 3.3 2025H2 Outlook for US Stock Indexes 3.3.1 Corporate Earnings Expectations Weaken, but Growth Rate Remains Resilient - Affected by the macro - environment, the earnings growth rate of US stocks has reversed its upward trend. The market expects the earnings growth rate to fall to single - digit levels in the next three quarters. However, the performance of corporate earnings in the first quarter was acceptable [67]. - The technology, communication services, utilities, and pharmaceutical sectors have maintained an EPS growth rate of over 10%. The technology sector is still the main driver of net profit growth. Although the market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, EPS has maintained an upward trend, providing support for the stock index [69] 3.3.2 Valuation Space is Limited and Difficult to Expand Significantly - Since the beginning of the year, the valuation levels of the three major stock indexes have moved away from historical extremes. However, due to high macro - environment uncertainty, the valuation is unlikely to expand significantly. The static valuation is expected to range between 22 and 26 times [70] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure from tariff negotiations, fiscal policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and increased bond supply. The downside risk is higher than the upside risk. - In the second half of the year, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks. In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 is expected to be supported around 5100; in a neutral scenario, it will operate around 6050; and in an optimistic scenario, it can reach 6400 [3][72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each segment, partial varieties are selected to provide option strategies and suggestions. Each option variety's strategy report includes analysis of the underlying market, research on option factors, and option strategy recommendations [9] - It is advisable to construct option combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2508) is 502, with a decrease of 51 and a decline rate of 9.27%, trading volume of 52.65 million lots, and an open interest of 4.27 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different option varieties. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.88, with a change of 0.15, and the open interest PCR is 1.16, with a change of - 0.56 [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options at the strike price, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 660, and the support level is 450 [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - It includes the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, change in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 39.62%, and the weighted implied volatility is 46.23% with a change of - 6.87% [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations for Different Varieties 3.5.1 Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: OPEC+ plans to increase oil supply, and the US maintains high production. The crude oil market has been volatile recently, with a sharp decline this week [8] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options remains at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is 1.10, indicating an increase in short - selling power. The pressure level is 610, and the support level is 450 [8] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: For volatility strategies, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy. For spot long - hedging strategies, construct a long collar strategy [8] 3.5.2 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, the energy sector is strong, but LPG has experienced a volatile market recently [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options fluctuates at a relatively high historical average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a recent bullish market. The pressure level is 5100, and the support level is 4000 [10] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Similar to crude oil, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [10] 3.5.3 Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port and enterprise inventories have decreased, and the market has shown a trend of first rising and then falling recently [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options is at a relatively high historical average level. The open interest PCR is 0.80, indicating an increase in short - selling power. The pressure level is 2950, and the support level is 2200 [10] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [10] 3.5.4 Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventories have decreased, and the market has shown a bearish trend with pressure from above [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options continues to rise and remains at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4350 [11] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar - like strategy for spot long - hedging [11] 3.5.5 Polypropylene - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Downstream开工率 is low, and the market has shown a trend of first rising and then falling recently [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options fluctuates above the historical average. The open interest PCR has decreased to below 0.80, indicating a weakening market. The pressure level is 7500, and the support level is 6800 [11] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: For spot long - hedging, hold a long position in the spot + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11] 3.5.6 Rubber - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventories have slightly increased, and the market has shown a bearish trend with low - level consolidation [12] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options fluctuates around the average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level is 21000, and the support level is 13000 [12] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12] 3.5.7 Polyester (PTA as an example) - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Industry inventories have decreased, and the market has been highly volatile recently [13] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options has first risen and then fallen rapidly but remains at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a relatively strong market. The pressure level is 5000, and the support level is 3800 [13] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [13] 3.5.8 Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventories have decreased, but the future supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the market has shown a bearish trend [14] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options has been decreasing and is currently below the average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 2400, and the support level is 2040 [14] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear - spread strategy for directionality, a short - bearish strangle strategy for volatility, and a covered - call strategy for spot long - hedging [14] 3.5.9 Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production and sales have improved slightly, but the market has been in a weak downward trend [14] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options has risen to a relatively high recent level but is still below the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 1300, and the support level is 1100 [14] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear - spread strategy for directionality, a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [14] 3.5.10 Urea - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventories have decreased, and the market has shown a trend of first rising and then falling [15] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options has first risen and then fallen rapidly and is currently fluctuating slightly below the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80. The pressure level is 1900, and the support level is 1700 [15] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar - like strategy for spot long - hedging [15]

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Monetary Policy - US consumer confidence unexpectedly declined by 5.4 points to 93, below economists' expectations, with concerns over the economic impact of increased import tariffs [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, emphasizing the need to observe the effects of tariff policies on the economy [1][2] - The proportion of consumers expecting interest rate increases over the next year rose to 57%, the highest since October 2023 [1] Group 2: Dollar Performance and Investment Trends - The dollar is on track for its worst first-half performance since 1986, with global investors reducing their dollar asset allocations, leading to a drop in the dollar index to a three-and-a-half-year low [3] - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to the erosion of its reserve currency status, with significant debt maturity pressures expected in 2027 [3][4] - Investment banks are increasingly bearish on the dollar, with a 9.7% decline observed this year [4] Group 3: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices have seen a significant drop, with WTI crude futures falling nearly 15% over two trading days, closing at $64.37 per barrel [5] - The decline is primarily due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, alleviating concerns over Middle Eastern oil supply disruptions [5] - Market dynamics indicate that oil prices may remain under pressure due to geopolitical factors and the impact of tariffs on the global economy [5][6] Group 4: AI Integration in Financial Services - Goldman Sachs launched the "GS AI Assistant" across the company to enhance employee productivity, with approximately 10,000 employees already using the tool [6] - The integration of AI in banking is moving from experimentation to deep integration, with other major banks like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley also deploying AI tools [6][7] - The trend indicates a shift towards vertical functionality and company-wide infrastructure in AI applications within the financial sector [7] Group 5: Quantum Computing Developments - IBM and Japan's RIKEN have deployed the IBM Quantum System Two in Japan, featuring the latest 156-qubit "Heron" processor [8] - This initiative aims to advance the integration of quantum computing with supercomputing technologies, supported by Japan's economic development agencies [8][9] - The market is witnessing a growing interest in quantum computing, with expectations of a $22 billion market for hybrid architectures by 2027 [9]

6月24日晚间，黄金、白银、原油，加速下跌，美股集体高开。 消息面上，中东局势传来大消息。 截至发稿，纽约金期货主力合约跌超2%，最新报3317.7美元/盎司；纽约银期货主力合约也跌超2%，最新报35.65美元/盎司。国内沪金、沪银主力合约均 跟随下跌。 原油更是崩跌。截至发稿，布伦特原油、美原油主力合约均跌超4%，国内原油主力合约跌超8%。 而美股则集体高开。截至发稿，纳指涨超1%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42977.60 | 0.93% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 19852.52 c 1.13% | | | 标普500 | 6077.62 с | 0.87% | 中概股集体大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.65%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 万得中概科技龙头指数 | 4012.34 | 1.56% | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7305.54 | 1.65% | | 万得中概股100 | 2759.31 | 2.59% | 热门中概股中，脑再生大涨超33%，大猩猩科技涨超 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has cooled down, and the market risk appetite has rebounded. However, the impact of external factors on the A-share market is limited, and the shock center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up. With the approaching of the interim report season, IF and IH with higher performance certainty may be relatively strong, while IC and IM face increased performance verification pressure [1]. - The bond market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation restricts the upward space. The short - term policy interest rate is difficult to cut [1]. - The geopolitical risk premium of precious metals has declined, and the prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. - The macro - uncertainty persists, and copper prices continue to oscillate. The supply of copper is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious [4]. - The cost of aluminum is disturbed, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - The fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the price continues to decline. The supply of the nickel industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is under pressure. The demand for lithium is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the inventory of smelters is rising [4][6]. - The high inventory of polysilicon suppresses the rebound. The supply - demand pattern of the polysilicon market is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - The geopolitical risk premium of steel has declined, and the prices are close to the upper limit of the range. The fundamentals of steel are not significantly changed, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options on rebar [6]. - Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the spot price is approaching the bottom while the futures price rebounds first. The long - term supply of coking coal is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. It is recommended that cautious investors close their short positions in coking coal and wait and see for new orders [8]. - The glass has stronger support than soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The performance of float glass is also weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - The import volume of methanol may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction. The positive impact of the Middle - East conflict is fading [10]. - The demand for polyolefins is poor, and the price is expected to decline. The demand for polyolefins is weak, and the crude oil premium is retreating [10]. - The inventory of the cotton industry is decreasing, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious negative drive [10]. - The demand for rubber is not fulfilled, and the port inventory is increasing. The supply of rubber is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the price is under pressure [10]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - Geopolitical conflict cools down, market risk appetite rebounds, A - share oscillates upward on Monday, small and micro - cap indexes strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets slightly rebounds to 1.15 trillion yuan [1]. - The performance of IF and IH may be relatively strong during the interim report season, while IC and IM face performance verification pressure [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is optimistic due to loose liquidity, but the high valuation and the difficulty of short - term policy interest rate cuts restrict the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risk premium declines, gold and silver prices oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious. Copper prices continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Aluminum: The cost is disturbed, and the inventory is low. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - Nickel: The fundamentals are weak, the supply of the industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Polypropylene (PP): The event - driven positive factors fade, and the supply is in excess. It is recommended to open new short positions in PP2509 [2]. - Polysilicon: The high inventory suppresses the rebound. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options on polysilicon PS2508 - C - 34500 [2][6]. - Aluminum: The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions in AL2508 [2]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - Methanol: The import volume may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction [10]. - Polyolefins: The demand is poor, and the price is expected to decline [10]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: The geopolitical risk premium declines, and the price is close to the upper limit of the range. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options [6]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The fundamentals change little, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand may be slightly looser in June - July, and the price follows the steel price to oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The long - term supply is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. Cautious investors are recommended to close their short positions and wait and see for new orders [8]. - Coke: The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The spot price is approaching the bottom, and the futures price rebounds first [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - Float Glass: The performance is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The inventory of the industry is decreasing, and the supply is expected to be tight. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10]. - Rubber: The demand is not fulfilled, the port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货涨跌互现，农副产品涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20250624 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 资料来源：Wind 公开资料 中信期货研究所 | | | | 25, 804 Th 500 UR BA THE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日庚涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3797.4 | 0.63% | 0.634 | 1.21% | -1.59% ...

以下文章来源于阡陌说 ，作者阡陌说 阡陌说 . 雪球2022年度基金影响力用户，天天基金2024年度影响力牛人。公众号大部分为基金学习笔记，可能会略显枯燥，感谢您的关注！期待与您同行收获时间 的玫瑰。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：阡陌说 来源：雪球 最近，我发现很多文章提及了金银比。 金银比是啥呢？它是反映黄金与白银之间的相对价格关系的一个指标，通常用于衡量白银是否被低估或高估。金银比越高，说明白银相对于黄金越 便宜，反之则越贵。 从历史数据来看，金银比在2025年4月一度升至104，随后随着白银价格的补涨，金银比逐步回落。截至2025年6月20日，COMEX黄金为3384.4美 元/盎司，COMEX白银为35.95美元/盎司，金银比最新值是94.14。 数据来源：WIND，截至2025年6月20日，历史收益不预示未来走势 数据来源：WIND，截至2025年6月20日，历史收益不预示未来走势 一、逻辑支撑 2.1、白银素有"魔鬼金属 "之称，波动率是黄金的1.5倍。 2.2、金银比的修复并非单边趋势，而是受多重因素影响的过程，短期波动可能较大，投 ...