Group 1: Key Events and Developments - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 to 5 at the invitation of President Xi Jinping [1] - The new China-Russia bilateral investment agreement will officially take effect on December 1, consisting of 20 articles covering investment protection, promotion, facilitation, and dispute resolution [1] - Silver prices have surged to a historical high, with spot silver reaching $58 per ounce for the first time, peaking at $58.84 [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose by 0.04%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily supply of crude oil from nine OPEC countries in October was 23.77 million barrels, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [2][14] - **Copper**: Night trading for copper saw an increase. Supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at breakeven, but smelting output continues to grow. The National Bureau of Statistics indicates positive growth in power grid investment, while real estate remains weak [2][19] - **Zinc**: Night trading for zinc also increased. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and while supply is tight, smelting output continues to rise. Overall, the supply-demand situation for zinc is balanced, with potential fluctuations expected [20] Group 3: Market Trends and Analysis - The U.S. stock indices fell, with the previous trading day seeing a rebound led by the non-ferrous metals sector. The market turnover was 1.89 trillion yuan, and financing balances increased by 1.484 billion yuan to 24,565 billion yuan [3][11] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.825%, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan through reverse repos [12][13] - The market is expected to see a balanced style as the year-end approaches, with cautious funding and potential incremental policies to support the economy [3][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, with the potential positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns materializing, the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term bottom is expected to have emerged. However, high supply will limit further upward movement, and the market is likely to shift to a sideways adjustment. It's recommended to wait and see on the single - side and focus on positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply remaining high and demand improving, the inventory is decreasing. It's suggested to consider buying at low prices [6][8]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is taken currently. It's recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but short - term valuation has dropped to a low level. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before substantial industry production cuts [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair potential. When the inventory reversal point occurs, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC + plan to pause production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The long - term strategy is to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in Q1 next year [22]. - For PX, it is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips [25]. - For PTA, supply disruptions are expected to decrease as processing fees stabilize. There are opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.06%, to 455.70 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.84 million barrels to 8.98 million barrels (up 10.36% month - on - month), diesel inventory decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 15.08 million barrels (down 7.29% month - on - month), etc. [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Prices in Taicang, Lunan, and Inner Mongolia increased. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 1 yuan to 2136 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 21 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 96 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom is expected to have emerged. The market may shift to a sideways adjustment, and focus on positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 2 yuan to 1675 yuan, with a basis of - 5 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 69 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. Consider buying at low prices [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell with a short - term technical breakdown. Thai rubber - producing areas' floods receded. Exchange RU inventory was low. As of November 27, 2025, Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tire开工率 was 63.91%, up 3.34 percentage points from last week; semi - steel tire开工率 was 72.37%, down 0.40 percentage points from last week [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral stance, wait and see, or engage in short - term trading. Hold a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 4 yuan to 4553 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene increased, while caustic soda prices decreased. The overall开工率 was 80.2%, up 1.4% [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before substantial industry production cuts [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene was unchanged, and the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The non - integrated profit of styrene decreased, and the port inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair potential. When the inventory reversal point occurs, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose. The upstream开工率 was 84.12%, down 0.05%. The inventory of production enterprises and traders decreased. The downstream average开工率 was 44.8%, up 0.11% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC +'s plan may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The long - term strategy is to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price fell. The upstream开工率 was 77.97%, up 0.8%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average开工率 was 53.7%, up 0.13% [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in Q1 next year [22]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 100 yuan to 6930 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 13 dollars to 849 dollars. The Chinese PX负荷 was 88.3%, down 1.2%; the Asian PX负荷 was 78.7%, down 1% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities for going long on dips [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 62 yuan to 4762 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 75 yuan to 4710 yuan. The PTA负荷 was 73.7%, up 2.7% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions are expected to decrease as processing fees stabilize. There are opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 3882 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 19 yuan to 3901 yuan. The supply - side负荷 was 73.1%, up 2.3%. The port inventory increased by 2.1 tons to 75.3 tons [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [28].

Market Overview - US stock markets ended a five-day winning streak, with the Dow Jones down 427.09 points (0.90%) at 47289.33, Nasdaq down 89.77 points (0.38%) at 23275.92, and S&P 500 down 36.46 points (0.53%) at 6812.63 [4][5] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November dropped to 48.2, marking the largest contraction in four months and remaining below the neutral line for nine consecutive months [6] Oil Market - Oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising by $0.77 (1.32%) to $59.32 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by $0.79 (1.27%) to $63.17 per barrel, amid supply concerns following an attack on a Black Sea terminal [16] Nvidia and Synopsys Partnership - Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in Synopsys, aiming to enhance collaboration in AI and accelerated computing, which will help design and validate smart products more efficiently [8] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the significance of this partnership for the design and engineering sector, which is highly computation-intensive [8] Semiconductor Sector Performance - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced mixed results, with notable gains from ASML (up over 2%) and NXP Semiconductors (up over 2%), while Broadcom saw a decline of over 4% [8] - Morgan Stanley raised Broadcom's target price from $409 to $443, while also increasing Nvidia's target price from $235 to $250 [10] Major Tech Stocks - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple rising over 1% and Amazon up 0.28%, while Google, Microsoft, and Facebook all fell by over 1% [12][13]

11月29日凌晨，纽约商品交易所1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌10美分，收于每桶58.55美元，跌幅为 0.17%。 中国经济网北京12月1日讯今日，上海国际能源交易中心日间盘原油期货主力合约震荡收高，成交放 大，持仓减少。主力2601合约收报455.7元，涨1.06%或4.8元;成交量为74267手;持仓为33224手，日盘持 仓减少428手。 ...

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. If the raw material output is smooth, the rubber price is expected to weaken; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to trade in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased from 14,800 to 15,000 yuan/ton, with a rise of 200 yuan and a growth rate of 1.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased from 14,600 to 14,650 yuan/ton, with a rise of 50 yuan and a growth rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of natural rubber futures increased from - 50 to - 35 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 30.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 5.45% to 451.50 thousand tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 1.71% to 195.00 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 8.60 thousand tons [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The geopolitical situation still supports oil prices in the short term, but under the pressure of OPEC + continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between 60 - 65 US dollars/barrel in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On November 28, Brent crude oil was at 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.49 US dollars or 0.78% from the previous day; WTI crude oil was at 58.55 US dollars/barrel; SC crude oil was at 450.90 yuan/barrel, up 5.80 yuan or 1.30% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: ICE Gasoil was at 669.75 US dollars/ton on November 28, up 5.75 US dollars or 0.87% from the previous day [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The European gasoline crack spread decreased by 12.98% to 17.82 US dollars/barrel on November 28 [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with limited upward and downward space. Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term but may face pressure later, especially the 01 contract in December [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The North China glass quotation increased from 1070 to 1090 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.87% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The North China soda ash quotation remained at 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production decreased due to some device overhauls, with the production rate dropping by 3.14% to 80.08% and the weekly output decreasing by 3.15% to 69.81 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.49% to 6236.20 ten - thousand weight boxes, and the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 3.47% to 158.74 million tons [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The increase in inland methanol supply is offset by weak coal - and gas - based profits. The reduction in port imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the port de - stocking expectation, providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The MA2601 closing price increased from 2114 to 2135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.99% [6]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19% to 37.3712 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [6]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.67% to 75.74%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.78% to 82.31% [6]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Both polypropylene and polyethylene present a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary by Directory - **Polyolefin Price and Spread**: The L2601 closing price increased from 6789 to 6857 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.34% [9]. - **Polyolefin Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 9.80% to 45.4 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 8.00% to 54.6 million tons [9]. - **Polyolefin Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 2.17% to 84.5%, and the PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93% to 46.6% [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply - demand of styrene remains in a tight balance, but its upward driving force is insufficient [11]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The CFR China pure benzene price increased from 665 to 669 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 0.6% [11]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The styrene East China spot price increased from 6560 to 6630 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.1% [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 11.6% to 16.40 million tons, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 76.6% [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PX is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. PTA is expected to be strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in December. Short - fiber has limited price - driving force, and bottle - chip supply - demand remains loose [12]. Summary by Directory - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The POY150/48 price decreased from 6490 to 6465 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan or 0.4% [12]. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price increased from 826 to 836 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 1.2% [12]. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: The PTA East China spot price increased from 4610 to 4635 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.5% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Caustic soda prices are expected to run weakly, and PVC is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with weak demand and an oversupply pattern [13]. Summary by Directory - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price increased from 4450 to 4470 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4% [13]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6% to 90.3%, and the PVC overall operating rate increased by 1.0% to 77.5% [13]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 1.0% to 80.4% [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View No relevant information provided. Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: The main PG2512 contract price increased from 4259 to 4412 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.59% [14]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 7.70% to 23.7% [14]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 1.26% to 74.74%, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased by 0.26% to 69.8% [14].

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 1 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：黄金原油双反弹 国家统计局发布数据显示，11 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个 百分点；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点；综合 PMI 产出指数 为 49.7%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平稳。中国宏观经 济论坛（CMF）发布年度报告认为，2025 年中国经济奋力寻求突破，基本实现预 期发展目标。展望 2026 年，中国经济发展面临三大新机遇——"十五五"规划 的开启和适度超前布局将打开全新增长空间、更加积极的财政政策和宽松的货币 政策蓄势待发、微观市场主体将在宏观经济回暖基础上进发新的活力。《报告》 建议，设定 2026 年经济社会发展目标时宜审慎乐观，以"十五五"开启为契机， 设定跨周期区间组合目标。 重点品种：股指、铜、原油 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指上涨为主，农林牧渔板块领涨， 银行板块领跌，市场成交额 1.60 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 27 日融资余额 增加 27.51 亿元至 24550.16 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立， ...

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. With the weakening of the hype about domestic production cuts and overseas floods, the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the terminal demand improvement is weak. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased, and the basis of whole latex also changed. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased slightly, and there were also changes in non - standard price differences and raw material prices [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: There were changes in the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of natural rubber contracts [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased to varying degrees, and the production of China increased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and in October, domestic tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume all decreased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and there were also changes in the outbound and inbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Affected by the repeated Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations and Trump's threat to Venezuela, short - term geopolitical factors still support oil prices. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel in the short term [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc. changed [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Soda Ash**: Although the production of soda ash has decreased significantly due to some device overhauls, and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased, there is still an over - supply problem in the medium term, and the overall demand is in a contraction pattern. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [5]. - **Glass**: In the short term, there is still some rigid demand support, but in the medium and long term, the demand is expected to shrink, and the glass price will be under pressure. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure when approaching the delivery month [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts [5]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained stable, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass also decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass and soda ash decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories remained unchanged [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate showed different trends [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - based and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream operating rate has increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provides support. In the port area, due to gas restrictions in Iran, multiple devices have stopped production, and the import volume in the first quarter is expected to decline significantly, strengthening the port destocking expectation and providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot prices in different regions changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as MA15 and regional spreads [6]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises increased, while the port inventory and social inventory decreased [6]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, the operating rate of downstream MTO devices decreased, and the operating rates of some traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde increased [6][7]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, the inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than in previous years, and the cost - side profit is compressed. The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, the supply is on the rise, and the upstream inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than the same period. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Polyolefin Price and Spread**: The prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 futures contracts increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 [9]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The enterprise inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the trading - company inventory of PP also decreased [9]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE devices increased, the downstream weighted operating rate decreased slightly; the operating rate of PP devices decreased slightly, the operating rate of PP powder increased, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased slightly [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Pure Benzene**: Although the supply - demand expectation has slightly improved due to some device overhauls, the current spot supply is sufficient, and there is an expectation of port inventory accumulation. The demand - side support is limited, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will face pressure on the upside. Short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds [11]. - **Styrene**: Although some integrated devices are under centralized overhaul, the overall operating rate is stable, and the supply is expected to remain. The demand support is limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious at the end and beginning of the month. Overall, the supply - demand of styrene is in a tight balance, but the upward driving force is insufficient. Short - term EB01 is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6600 [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene changed, and there were also changes in price differences such as pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha [11]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene futures contracts and spot prices increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as EB01 - EB02 and EB - BZ [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol, caprolactam, and aniline changed [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu increased [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and some downstream products changed [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **PX**: Although the supply is currently at a relatively high level, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand - side support is stronger than expected. Short - term PX is expected to oscillate at a high level, and there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term supply - demand [12]. - **PTA**: The supply reduction is greater than expected, and the demand - side support is strong. The supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired, but the price rebound space is limited. TA01 may oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and attention can be paid to the low - level positive spread opportunity of TA5 - 9 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - side contraction is not obvious, and the demand is supported by rigid demand. It is expected to oscillate in December, and EG2601 may oscillate between 3750 - 4000 [12]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak. Although the inventory pressure is not large in the short term, the absolute price driving force is limited, and the processing fee is mainly under compression. PFO2 is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the PF processing fee on the disk is recommended to be shorted on highs [12]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand is loose, and the social inventory is likely to accumulate seasonally. PR follows the cost - side fluctuation, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed [12]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and PX price differences changed [12]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of PTA spot and futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the basis and processing fees [12]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory remained unchanged, and the arrival expectation decreased [12]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and other industries changed [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry is still under pressure, the demand - side support is weak, and it is expected that the price of caustic soda will run weakly [13]. - **PVC**: It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern. The supply pressure remains, the demand is sluggish, and although there is an advantage in export prices, the overall demand - side support is weak, and the price is difficult to rise significantly [13]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and East China calcium - carbide - based PVC changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of PVC and caustic soda futures contracts [13]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased, and the export profit decreased [13]. - **PVC Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India decreased, and the export profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port changed [13]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased, and the profits of calcium - carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [13]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries changed [13]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [13]. - **Inventory: Social Inventory & Annual**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC decreased [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Not provided Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **LPG Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2512, PG2601, etc. increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as PG12 - 01, PG12 - 02, etc. [14]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The prices of FEI forward M1, M2 contracts and CP swap M1, M2 contracts decreased [14]. - **LPG Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG decreased [14]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main refineries decreased, the sample enterprise's weekly sales - to - production ratio decreased, the operating rate of downstream PDH increased slightly, the operating rate of MTBE remained unchanged, and the operating rate of alkylation decreased [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium in the oil market has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as verification [3]. - For methanol, the potential bullish factors from the previous shutdown in Iran have started to materialize. The market has stopped falling and stabilized, with the futures price rising on reduced positions and the monthly spread starting to recover from the bottom. It is expected that a short - term bottom has emerged. In the future, supply is expected to remain at a high level, limiting the upward space for methanol. It is expected that the market will gradually shift to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. It is advisable to wait and see on the single - side trading and focus on positive spread opportunities for the monthly spread [5]. - For urea, the futures price has been oscillating higher, and the spot price has rebounded from the bottom. With low valuations, the downside space for urea is relatively limited, and prices are expected to gradually move out of the bottom range. In the future, attention should be paid to export and off - season storage demand on the demand side, and winter gas - based shutdowns and cost support on the supply side. At low prices, it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, currently adopt a neutral approach. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term quick - in and quick - out trading. Partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises remains at a low level for the year, and the valuation pressure is relatively small in the short term. However, the supply side has few maintenance operations, and production is at a historical high. Multiple new plants are expected to start trial production in the short term. The domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is still difficult to digest the excess production capacity. In the medium term, before the industry substantially reduces production, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. - For polypropylene, in a background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. When the oversupply situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year, it may provide some support to the futures price [23]. - For PX, currently, the PX load remains at a high level, while downstream PTA has many maintenance operations and the overall load center is low. It is expected that PX will experience a slight inventory build - up in November. There is a risk of a slight valuation correction [24]. - For PTA, in the future, on the supply side, as processing fees gradually stabilize and recover, unexpected maintenance is expected to gradually decrease. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester fiber are relatively low, and the load is expected to remain high in the short term. However, due to inventory pressure and the approaching off - season for bottle chips, it is difficult for the load to increase. There is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [25]. - For ethylene glycol, on the industrial fundamentals, the domestic plant load is lower than expected due to a large number of unexpected maintenance operations. The domestic supply is expected to decline in December, and the import volume will decrease slightly. The inventory build - up rate at ports may slow down. In the medium term, as maintenance ends, domestic production is still expected to be high, and with new plants gradually coming into operation, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 8.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.98% increase, at 453.90 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.90 million barrels to 13.52 million barrels, a 6.23% decline; diesel inventories decreased by 1.95 million barrels to 8.01 million barrels, a 19.62% decline; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.19 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 0.78% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 2.66 million barrels to 46.24 million barrels, a 5.44% decline [2][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 5, remained flat in southern Shandong, and increased by 2.5 in Inner Mongolia. The futures contract 01 increased by 21 yuan, closing at 2135 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 25. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10, reaching - 84 [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is expected to have a short - term bottom. In the future, supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to shift to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. Wait and see on the single - side trading and focus on positive spread opportunities for the monthly spread [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 20, 10, and 10 respectively. The futures contract 01 increased by 9 yuan, closing at 1677 yuan, with a basis of - 27. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, reaching - 66 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to gradually move out of the bottom range. At low prices, consider buying on dips. In the future, pay attention to export and off - season storage demand on the demand side, and winter gas - based shutdowns and cost support on the supply side [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas has gradually receded, and subsequent bullish factors are diminishing. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are low. The fundamental driving force for rubber has weakened marginally and is currently following macro - level fluctuations. There are different views from the long and short sides. As of November 27, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.91%, 3.34 percentage points higher than last week and 3.98 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.37%, 0.40 percentage points lower than last week and 6.33 percentage points lower than the same period last year. New orders have slowed down, and tire factory inventories have increased. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1080000 tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous period [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral approach currently. Wait and see or conduct short - term quick - in and quick - out trading. Partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 32 yuan, closing at 4549 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4490 (+40) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 59 (+8) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 290 (-9) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased to 2475 (+25) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.2%, a 1.4% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 83.6%, a 2.3% increase; the ethylene method was 72.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a 0.4% increase. Factory inventory was 323000 tons (+7000), and social inventory was 1043000 tons (+10000) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, before the industry substantially reduces production, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene was 68.95%, a 0.30% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 1.59 million tons to 16.42 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the operating rate of PS was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the operating rate of ABS was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6789 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6810 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, weakening by 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise's inventory decreased by 49300 tons to 454000 tons, and the trader's inventory decreased by 3300 tons to 47100 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, narrowing by 4 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatch. Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6409 yuan/ton, a 114 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, weakening by 114 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, an 0.8% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise's inventory decreased by 47500 tons to 546300 tons, the trader's inventory decreased by 12900 tons to 200500 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 65300 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 380 yuan/ton, narrowing by 24 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a weak supply - demand background, the overall inventory pressure is high. When the oversupply situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year, it may support the futures price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 112 yuan, closing at 6830 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 10 dollars, at 826 dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (-29), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 28 yuan (+12). China's PX load was 88.3%, a 1.2% decrease; Asia's load was 78.7%, a 1% decrease. The Sinochem Quanzhou plant was under maintenance, and the overseas GS 550000 - ton plant in South Korea reduced its load. The PTA load was 73.7%, a 2.7% increase. In November, South Korea exported 275000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days, a 19000 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 4074000 tons, a 48000 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 260 dollars (-11), the South Korean PX - MX was 109 dollars (unchanged), and the naphtha crack spread was 105 dollars (+5) [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that PX will experience a slight inventory build - up in November, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 68 yuan, closing at 4700 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 25 yuan, at 4635 yuan. The basis was - 38 yuan (-2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 52 yuan (+2). The PTA load was 73.7%, a 2.7% increase. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 87%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 72%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on November 21 was 2230000 tons, a 33000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 30 yuan to 160 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 5 yuan to 220 yuan [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the supply side, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. On the demand side, the load is expected to remain high in the short term, but it is difficult for the bottle - chip load to increase. There is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 12 yuan, closing at 3885 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 18 yuan, at 3882 yuan. The basis was 4 yuan (-7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 93 yuan (-20). The ethylene glycol load was 73.1%, a 2.3% increase; among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 72%, a 5.6% increase; the ethylene - based load was 73.8%, a 0.4% increase. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 87%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 72%. The import arrival forecast was 95000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on November 27 was 13000 tons. The port inventory was 732000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 828 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 668 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 74 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained flat at 730 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 680 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, as new plants come into operation, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain weak. Short on rallies in the medium term [27].

首席点评： 黄金原油双反弹 国家统计局发布数据显示， 11 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.2% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，比上 月下降 0.6 个百分点；综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.7% ，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平稳。中国宏观经 济论坛（ CMF ）发布年度报告认为， 2025 年中国经济奋力寻求突破，基本实现预期发展目标。展望 2026 年，中国经济 发展面临三大新机遇——"十五五"规划的开启和适度超前布局将打开全新增长空间、更加积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政 策蓄势待发、微观市场主体将在宏观经济回暖基础上进发新的活力。《报告》建议，设定 2026 年经济社会发展目标时宜审 慎乐观，以"十五五"开启为契机，设定跨周期区间组合目标。 重点品种： 股指、铜、原油 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指上涨为主，农林牧渔板块领涨，银行板块领跌，市场成交额 1.60 万亿元。 资金方面， 11 月 27 日融资余额增加 27.51 亿元至 24550.16 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长 期方向。 11 月以来"权重走 ...