Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is disturbed by geopolitical risks, and the chemical industry as a whole continues to fluctuate. The Venezuelan situation affects the supply of crude oil, and the market prices of various energy and chemical products show different trends under multiple factors such as supply - demand, cost, and geopolitics [1][3]. - The trading logic of the chemical market is disturbed by multiple favorable factors, and the strength - weakness relationship between varieties has changed significantly. The rebound of polyolefins has opened the import arbitrage window for polyethylene, and the current rebound may overdraw the future maintenance benefits of the industry [2]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical factors continuously disturb, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. The supply of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to gradually normalize, and the global crude oil supply pressure continues. However, geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors guiding the crude oil supply expectation. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of supply surplus and frequent geopolitical disturbances [1][8]. - **Main Logic**: EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week of January 2, and the weekly production estimate decreased slightly. The refinery operating rate remained high, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased seasonally. If the US - Venezuelan crude oil trade volume increases and sanctions are reduced, the supply of Venezuela may recover slightly this year [8]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and it is regarded as short - term fluctuation [8]. Asphalt - **View**: The US is dealing with the sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter. Venezuela is expected to transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US. The interruption expectation of Venezuelan crude oil exports is gradually alleviated, and the asphalt raw material supply interruption expectation is also relieved. The asphalt cracking spread is under pressure. The asphalt production in Hainan has increased significantly, and the inventory pressure is still large. The asphalt is overvalued compared with fuel oil [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The Venezuelan situation is controllable, and the fuel oil futures price drops. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter, and the supply of heavy oil will surge. The energy crisis in Iraq may lead to the resumption of fuel - oil power generation. However, the high - sulfur fuel oil demand is suppressed by the high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and the demand for fuel - oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates and declines. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage, and it is expected to face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand. Currently, the valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and the lack of high - sulfur substitution demand space, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [11]. Methanol - **View**: The inventory accumulation along the coast slows down, and methanol is expected to be stable and slightly strong under the expectation of inventory reduction. - **Main Logic**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is rational. The port inventory is in an accumulation state, but the growth rate has slowed down, indicating that the reduction of imports is beneficial. However, the current MTO profit is not good, and the operation of some projects needs attention [29]. - **Outlook**: It is regarded as short - term stable and slightly strong [29]. Urea - **View**: The new order transactions push up the price close to the pressure level, and urea is regarded as fluctuating. - **Main Logic**: The supply side has high daily production and operation rate to meet previous orders. The demand side is cautious about high - price goods. The inventory is flat, and the sustainability of new order transactions near the price of 1800 yuan/ton needs attention [30]. - **Outlook**: It is regarded as short - term fluctuation [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The general rise of the coal - chemical industry boosts the atmosphere, but the increase is limited due to fundamental pressure. - **Main Logic**: The coal price rises, and the coal - chemical industry is supported by cost. However, the ethylene glycol's own inventory accumulation cycle is difficult to reverse, so the rebound space is limited [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price will fluctuate within the range, and the long - term inventory accumulation pressure is still large, with an operation range of [3700 - 3900] [22]. PX - **View**: The sector sentiment is warm, and the downstream demand still has support, so it maintains range consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the overall rise of downstream PTA is strong, which limits the decline of PX. The supply - demand variables are limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range [13]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range, and the positive - spread logic is maintained [13]. PTA - **View**: The cost guidance is limited, but the enthusiastic sentiment of chemical products supports the price to be firm. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is average during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the domestic chemical product sector sentiment is high. The demand is expected to weaken, but the overall sentiment is warm, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. The overall supply - demand is in a tight pattern, and the spot market will fluctuate within a range [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate with the cost. The TA05 contract can be bought on dips in the medium - term, and short - sold in the range of 5200 - 5300. The TA05 - 09 can be positively spread on dips [15]. Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost provides certain support, but the demand sustainability is insufficient, and the profit is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate without a clear direction. The downstream demand is continuously insufficient, and some terminal enterprises may enter the holiday state after the middle of the month. The chemical product sentiment is warm, and the short - fiber price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is slightly under pressure [26]. Bottle - Chip - **View**: More devices are under maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. - **Main Logic**: The commodity market rises as a whole, and the cost support is acceptable. However, the downstream terminal replenishment willingness is not high, which restricts the increase. It is expected that the market center of polyester bottle - chips will fluctuate and adjust [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw material, and the support for the processing fee increases [27]. Propylene (PL) - **View**: There is an expectation of PDH maintenance, and PL rises slightly. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance boosts the price. The enthusiasm of market participants has increased, and the enterprise inventory is low. The powder profit has been slightly repaired, but the downstream demand in the off - season has limited support [36]. - **Outlook**: PL fluctuates in the short term [36]. PP - **View**: The coal price indirectly boosts, but the basis support is limited, and PP rises cautiously. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the actual reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports is uncertain. The coal price rebounds in the short term, which indirectly boosts PP. It is the off - season for PP downstream, and the trading volume has decreased after the futures price rebound. The short - term maintenance has increased [35]. - **Outlook**: PP fluctuates in the short term [35]. LLDPE - **View**: The downstream trading volume has decreased, and the upward space of LLDPE is limited. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the supply of crude oil is disturbed in the short term. The futures price rebounds slightly under the repair of macro - expectations, but the spot is weak, and the basis is weak. It is the off - season for plastic demand, and the demand support is limited [34]. - **Outlook**: LLDPE fluctuates in the short term [34]. PVC - **View**: There are frequent supply disturbances, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. From a domestic perspective, the marginal device operation rate has increased slightly, and the profit repair may increase the supply elasticity. From an overseas perspective, some PVC production capacity has withdrawn from the market. The downstream is in the off - season, and the export orders are average [39]. - **Outlook**: Supported by factors such as "anti - involution", spring maintenance expectations, and overseas device disturbances, PVC runs strongly. If the sentiment fades, the adjustment pressure on the disk will increase [39]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The market sentiment is positive, and caustic soda is driven up. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. The expected increase in the electricity cost of restricted - capacity caustic soda in Shaanxi boosts the market sentiment. The alumina marginal device profit is poor, and the demand for caustic soda has marginal support. The upstream production is stable, and the caustic soda cost is expected to increase [41]. - **Outlook**: The disk may fluctuate. The support comes from positive market sentiment and the expectation of cost increase, while the pressure comes from high inventory and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Based on the rising domestic policy expectations, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin) under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Treat precious metals as a standard allocation in the short term and over - allocate them on dips after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, domestic equity markets are expected to strengthen driven by policy and fiscal front - loading expectations; treasury bonds can be observed for bull - steepening opportunities under easing expectations but with limited odds; non - ferrous metals perform relatively well under macro and industrial support; black commodities return to a weak and volatile state after the winter - storage driven rebound; crude oil is expected to be volatile and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [5]. Summary by Directory Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: Double factors boost the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on option market liquidity [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Long - end sentiment remains weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policy [6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to maintain an upward trend after a volatile adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [6]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Near - term prices are supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and long - term prices are affected by the risk of resuming flights. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on shipping companies' 2026 resumption arrangements, year - end long - term contract signing prices, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments on freight rates [6]. - **Steel Products**: Cost performance is strong, and the futures price rebounds from a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is strong, and both futures and spot prices rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: There are limited fundamental changes, and the futures price shows a pattern of weak first and then strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Auction prices rise and fall, and most commodities rise at night. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Silicomanganese**: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel procurement prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: Commodity sentiment warms up, and the valuation premium recovers. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on spot sales [6]. - **Soda Ash**: There are limited fundamental changes, and sentiment drives the valuation to recover. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected delays in ore复产, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: Mozal Aluminum Plant faces shutdown, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The downstream's willingness to take delivery improves, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices rebound. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices fluctuate strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on the expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected over - recovery of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected over - recovery of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices fluctuate under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong reality is facing challenges, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The US is dealing with Venezuelan - sanctioned crude oil, and asphalt futures prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is a decline, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The situation in Venezuela is under control, and fuel oil futures prices fall. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate and fall. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on crude oil prices [8]. - **Methanol**: The situation in the Middle East is turbulent, and methanol prices rise strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: New orders are actively traded, and the announcement of the Indian tender boosts sentiment. Urea prices are stable and slightly strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Geopolitical instability brings uncertainties to the supply side. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on coal and oil price fluctuations and port inventory rhythms [8]. - **PX**: Geopolitics boosts international oil prices, providing cost support. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and refining unit disruptions [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support combined with strong chemical sentiment strengthens the price support at the bottom. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and insufficient downstream polyester load support [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Cost provides some support, but demand sustainability is insufficient, and profits are under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: More devices are under maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and shipping costs [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [8]. - **Plastic**: The basis is weak, and the upward space of plastic prices is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [8]. - **Styrene**: Exports and commodity sentiment are warm, driving styrene to fluctuate strongly recently. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Supply disruptions occur frequently, and PVC prices rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Market sentiment is positive, driving caustic soda prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats fluctuate, with soybean oil being relatively strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The market trading is active, and double - meal prices continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on customs policies, South American weather, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The rotation purchase restarts, and prices fluctuate within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Pigs**: The slaughter rhythm slows down at the beginning of the month, and spot prices rebound slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Capital sentiment remains positive, and rubber prices continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price follows the rise of natural rubber. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations [8]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices fluctuate and face pressure later. The short - term judgment is a volatile decline, and the focus is on imports and Northern Hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: Capital and macro - factors dominate the market, and pulp futures prices fluctuate repeatedly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated price fluctuations [8]. - **Offset Paper**: There are few fundamental changes, and the offset paper futures price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: The market warms up, and logs follow the strength of the black sector. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on shipment volume and dispatch volume [8]. Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomics - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination of the new Fed Chairman in January. Hassett is still the most popular candidate in the market's expectation, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The short - term positive effect of the geopolitical event in Venezuela on crude oil and precious metals is expected to be limited [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released and optimized compared with 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two - major" construction projects and the central budget - internal investment plan for 2026, with a total of about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the allocation and use of various funds. It has also approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5].

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI February contract closing at $55.99 per barrel, down $1.14 (2.00%) and Brent March contract at $59.96 per barrel, down $0.74 (1.22%) [2][16] - The U.S. has reached an agreement to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil, which is expected to increase the supply for the world's largest oil consumer, contributing to the drop in international oil prices [2][16] - The agreement may require oil shipments originally destined for China to change routes, as millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil have been stranded due to previous export restrictions [2][16] - The market is facing a contradiction where the volume of Venezuelan oil is expected to increase, while trade flows are shifting from West to East, raising concerns about discounted oil alternatives and energy spillover effects [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.38% to 2437 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 2.29% to 2860 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore is expected to see stable arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in the coming weeks, which will continue to increase local inventories [3][17] - Demand for low-sulfur fuel oil remains weak due to holiday impacts, while high-sulfur fuel oil demand is supported by an increase in ships installing desulfurization towers [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.13% to 3151 yuan/ton, with total domestic asphalt inventory at 24.73%, down 0.33% from last week [5][18] - The supply of diluted asphalt remains stable, with expectations that raw material supply will not be directly affected by geopolitical events [5][18] - The market is expected to stabilize with a slight upward trend in prices due to support from raw materials and supply, despite some pressure from certain refineries [5][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 130 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, with NR main contract up by 140 yuan/ton to 13150 yuan/ton [6][19] - The production area is experiencing alleviated rainfall, and the overseas peak production season is expected to last for over a month, providing support for raw material prices [6][19] - Downstream tire demand is weakening, and the macroeconomic environment is improving, leading to expectations of price fluctuations in the rubber market [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged, while EG2605 rose by 1.07% to 3879 yuan/ton [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7286 yuan/ton, down 0.68%, with the market facing weak demand and potential further declines in polyester operating rates [7][20] - Ethylene glycol supply is expected to improve with various facilities planning maintenance, while demand remains weak, leading to a forecast of price fluctuations [7][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2273 yuan/ton, with expectations of a slight increase in domestic production in January [8][21] - The decline in Iranian shipments is expected to reduce arrivals in January, providing price support, while MTO plant profits are under pressure [8][21] - Overall, methanol is expected to maintain a strong fluctuation trend due to these dynamics [8][21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6200 to 6400 yuan/ton, with various production margins indicating negative profitability [9][22] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly in early January [9][22] - Overall, polyolefins are expected to experience bottom fluctuations as inventory pressures increase towards the end of January [9][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with various grades showing price adjustments between 4500 to 4750 yuan/ton [10][23] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [10][23] - The overall performance of PVC is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with limited upward space anticipated [10][23] Urea - Urea prices in major regions increased by 10 yuan/ton, with current prices at 1750 yuan/ton [11][24] - Daily production remains stable at 20.4 million tons, with supply levels expected to rise as more companies resume operations [11][24] - The market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with attention on the final results of bidding and related market dynamics [11][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed significant increases, with trade prices in Shihezi at 1231 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [12][25] - The industry is seeing improved demand sentiment, although the overall demand remains weak [12][25] - The market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with ongoing dynamics affecting price fluctuations [12][25] Glass - Glass prices increased significantly, with the average price at 1081 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [13][14] - The production rate is stable, and demand sentiment is improving, although there are pressures from seasonal demand [13][14] - The market is expected to continue a strong trend in the short term, influenced by external factors and internal pressures [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and wait for OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall for verification [2]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, there is feasibility to buy on dips [5]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, bearish expectations for the fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral strategy, trade short - term, enter and exit quickly, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, but supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is entering the off - season, and exports also face off - season pressure. With a strong supply and weak demand situation, short - term electricity prices support PVC, and in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial industry production cuts [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and styrene's port inventory is decreasing. One can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, and the overall inventory is expected to decline from a high level. One can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight decline in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. The disk price may bottom out when the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, the import decline in January is limited, and the port inventory accumulation period will continue. In the medium term, it is expected to compress the valuation without further domestic production cuts [31]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 11.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 2.57%, at 416.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories decreased, while diesel inventory increased [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and wait for OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall for verification [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes, and the main futures contract fell 26 yuan/ton to 2267 yuan/ton, with an MTO profit of - 106 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, there is feasibility to buy on dips [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas changed, with an overall basis of - 60 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, bearish expectations for the fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the rubber price broke through the range. Bulls and bears had different views. Tire开工率 showed marginal changes, and inventory increased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral strategy, trade short - term, enter and exit quickly, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The overall start - up rate increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased, and inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, but supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is entering the off - season, and exports also face off - season pressure. With a strong supply and weak demand situation, short - term electricity prices support PVC, and in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial industry production cuts [13]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - end price of pure benzene and the price of the active contract rose, and the basis decreased. The spot and active contract prices of styrene rose, and the basis strengthened. Supply - side start - up rate increased, and port inventory decreased. Demand - side start - up rate also increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and styrene's port inventory is decreasing. One can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price and spot price rose, the basis weakened, the upstream start - up rate increased, inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate decreased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, and the overall inventory is expected to decline from a high level. One can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price and spot price rose, the basis weakened, the upstream start - up rate decreased, inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate decreased [21][22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The EIA monthly report predicts a slight decline in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. The disk price may bottom out when the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. PX load increased in China and Asia. Some domestic and overseas devices had changes. PTA load increased. Import volume from South Korea to China increased, and inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan, the spot price rose, the basis increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased. PTA load increased, some devices restarted or increased production, and some downstream devices had maintenance. Terminal load decreased, and inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan, the spot price rose, the basis decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased. Supply - side load increased, some domestic and overseas devices had changes. Downstream load increased, terminal load decreased, and port inventory decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall load is still high, the import decline in January is limited, and the port inventory accumulation period will continue. In the medium term, it is expected to compress the valuation without further domestic production cuts [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The impact of the US attack on Venezuela on crude oil is limited, and the market may return to the downward drive caused by the oversupply pressure in the first quarter. Chemical products should be treated differently in the future. Asphalt can be a key long - position variety, while styrene can be a key short - position variety to focus on. PX - PTA should be observed in the short term and wait for the end of the callback to enter long positions in the next stage [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil. Venezuela has become an edge producer with about 1% of global output and 50 - 80 barrels per day of daily exports. After the event, the market may return to the downward drive of oversupply pressure in the first quarter [2][3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The price hit a new low recently. The short - term upper pressure is at 436. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Asphalt - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has a substantial impact on domestic asphalt raw materials. With the paralysis of Venezuelan crude oil exports, the Venezuelan heavy oil (accounting for over 40% of domestic asphalt raw materials) faces a real supply cut. The asphalt market faces dual upward drives of supply reduction and cost increase. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. The volume is well - matched, and there is still an upward space after the accumulation of momentum. The short - term support is at 2990. The strategy is to hold half of the long - position in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2990 [7]. Styrene - Logic: The entire styrene industry chain has high inventory. The high inventory of pure benzene upstream drags down the price of styrene. The downstream 3S has weak demand and profits. The industry is in an oversupply state. If the expected export increase in January is false, the price of styrene will fall [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure, but the upward volume is insufficient. The 15 - minute cycle has changed from a decline to a shock. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short - positions in the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6835 [11][13]. Rubber - Logic: The seasonal inventory accumulation rate of domestic natural rubber is fast, and the inventory is higher than the same period. Coupled with the high inventory pressure of downstream tires, there is no strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price followed by a decline at the end of the session, the short - term support is moved up to 15700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Synthetic rubber maintains a high - operating state and has a slight inventory reduction due to traders' replenishment. The raw material butadiene also has an inventory reduction, but the high supply pressure of butadiene and the high inventory pressure of downstream tires limit the upward space. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 11750 [17]. PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. However, due to the low acceptance of downstream polyester in the off - season, there is a short - term callback. In the medium term, there is an opportunity for a second low - entry long - position due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 7390. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [20][23]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but there is a short - term callback due to downstream factors. There is a medium - term opportunity for a second low - entry long - position. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 5205. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is moved up to 6350. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Methanol - Logic: The methanol port inventory is at a historically high level. Although there is an expected reduction in Iranian ship arrivals, the downstream MTO profit is weakening, and the fundamental drive is still weak. The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on methanol. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume followed by a decline, the short - term support is at 2200. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. PVC - Logic: PVC has high production, weak demand, and high inventory, but the current valuation is low. Pay attention to the expected trading of policy and spring maintenance in the first quarter. The news of Shaanxi's proposed differential electricity price for the calcium carbide industry has a short - term positive impact on the market. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 4820. The strategy is to hold long - positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 4820 [34]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weak coal price on the cost side and the continuous inventory accumulation at the port, along with weakening demand, mean that the fundamentals do not provide a strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. After a decrease in volume followed by an increase in price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is at 6435. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39]. Soda Ash - Logic: The inventory pressure of soda ash has weakened slightly, but it is still high compared to the same period. The over - supply pattern caused by large - scale capacity expansion in recent years remains unchanged, and there is no expected increase in terminal demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a large increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 1215. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda has high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling at present. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. After a large increase in volume and price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

Group 1 - Global stock markets showed signs of a pause in their upward trend on January 7, 2026, after a previous surge driven by AI hype and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Asian stock markets entered a technically overbought zone, leading to profit-taking and declines, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index falling over 1% [1] - U.S. stock index futures displayed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down more than 0.2%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The commodities market experienced significant volatility, particularly in precious metals, with spot gold prices dropping below $4,450 per ounce and silver prices declining by over 3% in a single day [1] - The declines in precious metals were partly attributed to a key funding event, as the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was set for annual weight rebalancing from January 8 to 14, leading to expected large-scale mechanical selling [1] - The anticipated sell-off could involve silver futures facing sell orders equivalent to 9% of total open interest, while gold futures could see sell orders around 3% of total open interest, exerting direct pressure on short-term market sentiment and prices [1] Group 3 - The oil market faced downward pressure following U.S. President Trump's announcement that the Venezuelan interim government would transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., raising concerns about a potential increase in global oil supply [2] - Federal Reserve officials provided policy clues, with Governor Milan stating that core inflation levels have returned close to the Fed's 2% target, suggesting further rate cuts may exceed 100 basis points this year [2] - The focus of investors is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025, as the Fed's policy direction is increasingly influenced by concerns over a weak labor market [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on energy and chemical options dated January 7, 2026 [1] - It covers various energy and chemical options including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc [2] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of multiple underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc [3] Group 3: Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report presents the volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying market and the turning point of the market respectively [4] Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various option varieties, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes [6] Group 4: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties Energy Options (Crude Oil and LPG) - **Crude Oil**: Fundamental factors include geopolitical events and OPEC+ policies; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a short - biased call + put option combination, and spot long - hedging strategy is to construct a long collar strategy [7] - **LPG**: Fundamental factors involve supply and demand; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a short - biased call + put option combination, and spot long - hedging strategy is to construct a long collar strategy [9] Alcohol Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Fundamental factors include import volume and inventory; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination, and spot long - hedging strategy is to construct a long collar strategy [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamental factors involve port inventory; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a short - volatility strategy, and spot long - hedging strategy is to hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10] Olefin Options (PVC) - **PVC**: Fundamental factors include production capacity utilization; directional strategy is to construct a bull spread combination of call options, volatility strategy is none, and spot long - hedging strategy is to hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10] Rubber Options - **Rubber**: Fundamental factors include port inventory and production; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination, and spot hedging strategy is none [11] Polyester Options (PTA) - **PTA**: Fundamental factors include market operating rate and production; directional strategy is to construct a bull spread combination of call options, volatility strategy is to construct a long - biased call + put option combination, and spot hedging strategy is none [11] Alkali Chemical Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamental factors include capacity utilization rate; directional strategy is to construct a bear spread combination, volatility strategy is none, and spot collar hedging strategy is to hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [12] - **Soda Ash**: Fundamental factors include domestic effective production capacity; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a short - volatility combination, and spot long - hedging strategy is to construct a long collar strategy [12] Urea Options - **Urea**: Fundamental factors include daily production; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a long - biased call + put option combination, and spot hedging strategy is to hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Urea - On January 6, urea futures closed higher, and the spot market rose slightly. The overall trading atmosphere improved, but the short - term high - supply situation was difficult to change, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The urea price was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of subsequent devices and the progress of downstream industrial and agricultural demand [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures fluctuated strongly on Tuesday, and the spot market was relatively stable. The supply - demand pattern of the caustic soda market was expected to be stable and weak, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine. PVC prices rose rapidly on January 6, but the supply - demand contradiction increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The overall supply of domestic petroleum benzene was stable, but the port inventory was high. The overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level. The short - term supply - demand of styrene was in a tight balance, but the rebound space was limited [3]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber faced increased pressure from overseas production areas, but the cost support strengthened. The downstream replenishment was cautious, and the inventory in Qingdao increased significantly. The rubber price was driven up by market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the raw material situation in Thailand [4]. Crude Oil - On Tuesday, oil prices rose first and then fell. The short - term price of Brent crude oil was expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rebounded, but the supply - demand situation was still under pressure, and the price rebound space was limited. Glass prices rebounded at night, but the demand was expected to weaken, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion of the middle - stream [9]. LPG - LPG prices rose, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term market was affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inventory changes [11]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to rise. The inland market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, while the port inventory was expected to enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter, and the market was expected to maintain a strong - fluctuating pattern [13][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply of PX and PTA was expected to be high in January, but the demand was weak. The prices of PX and PTA were expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand of MEG was expected to accumulate inventory, and the price was under pressure. The supply - demand of short - fiber and bottle - chip was weak, and the prices were expected to follow the raw materials [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On January 6, the 01 contract was 1694 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 05 contract was 1768 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; the 09 contract was 1730 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; the main contract was 2293 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 84 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 33 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 48 yuan/ton, up 6.25% [1]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.25%, and the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.36% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials were stable, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong increased by 0.61% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of small - particle urea in most regions rose slightly, and the FOB prices in China and the US Gulf were stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily production of urea increased to 204,000 tons, the weekly production decreased by 0.49%, the plant - level inventory decreased by 4.65%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.50% [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the market price of PVC in East China increased, the prices of futures contracts V2601 and V2605 rose by 3.3%, and the basis and spreads changed [2]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit decreased [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was stable, the demand of downstream industries was weak, and the inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased, the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3%, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products changed [3]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene in East China increased by 0.7%, and the spreads and basis of styrene futures changed [3]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 6.0%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7%. The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On January 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.64%, and the basis and spreads changed [4]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: In November, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and the operating rates of tire - related industries changed [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory of natural rubber increased by 4.48%, and the inventory in Qingdao showed different changes in inbound and outbound rates [4]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.72%, the price of WTI crude oil decreased by 2.04%, and the spreads between different crude oil varieties and contracts changed [6][7]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil decreased, and the spreads between different refined oil contracts changed [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions were stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts changed slightly [9]. - **Soda Ash Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions were stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts increased [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and weekly production of soda ash decreased, the inventory of soda ash increased significantly, and the demand of downstream industries decreased [9]. LPG - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the prices of LPG futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [11]. - **LPG Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased slightly, the port inventory decreased by 8.41%, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [11]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Methanol Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [13][14][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the prices of PX - related products increased [18]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, etc. changed slightly, and the cash flows and processing fees of polyester products changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of MEG ports decreased slightly, and the operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report Core View - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and a weak intraday view. The supply - demand surplus dominates, leading to an oscillating and weak trend in crude oil [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly [1] - On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend with a slight decline in price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the price of domestic crude oil futures may maintain an oscillating and weak trend [5] Driving Factors - During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks increased rapidly due to the US military operation in Venezuela and President Trump's threat to other South American countries, which may be an important geopolitical factor for post - holiday oil price increases [5] - The long - term and medium - term logic for the decline in oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The concern about global supply surplus persists, causing a pessimistic sentiment among investors [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, the Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. - For urea, the import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. - For polypropylene, although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 1.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.33%, to 428.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 18.00 yuan/ton, or 0.73%, to 2479.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.27%, to 2925.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a draw of 2.10 million barrels in crude oil arrival inventory to 205.11 million barrels, a build of 0.58 million barrels in gasoline commercial inventory to 89.62 million barrels, a build of 0.42 million barrels in diesel commercial inventory to 92.56 million barrels, and a build of 1.00 million barrels in total refined oil commercial inventory to 182.18 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: The Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had various changes. The main futures contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 2293 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 265 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had changes, and the overall basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 1778 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and rubber prices fluctuated upwards. There were different views from bulls and bears. The total inventory of natural rubber in China increased, and the tire start - up rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 155 yuan to 4919 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 78.6%, with an increase of 1.4%. The inventory in factories and society increased [7]. - **Strategy View**: The overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the port inventory of styrene decreased while that of pure benzene increased [10]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 130 yuan/ton to 6579 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 93 yuan/ton to 6423 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 80 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the inventory in production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7336 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic plants restarted and expanded production. The PTA load increased. The import volume from South Korea to China in December increased, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 104 yuan to 5150 yuan. The PTA load increased, and some plants restarted and increased production. The downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 106 yuan to 3838 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly. Some domestic and overseas plants had operation changes. The downstream load increased, and the port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25].