Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers for ethylene glycol (EG) in the near - term are insufficient. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - allocation for funds. With new production capacity coming online, the inventory accumulation expectation for the fourth quarter has advanced and expanded, and the valuation has been further pressured under front - running trades. Since the inventory accumulation expectation has been mostly priced in, it is not recommended to continue shorting before the expectation is realized. - The supply side of EG is operating at full capacity, with little chance of unexpected incremental supply and overall lacking supply elasticity. Considering the low inventory, relatively low valuation, and lack of supply elasticity of EG, the short - term downward price space is limited. However, if there are unexpected drivers from the supply side or the macro - environment, the upward price movement will be more elastic. - Currently, the supply - demand drivers for EG are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 4150 - 4350. A breakout requires cost - side and macro - level drivers. In terms of operations, due to short - term emotional suppression leading to an oversold situation, there is price support, and one can moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecasts are as follows: EG is 4150 - 4450, PX is 6400 - 7100, PTA is 4400 - 5000, and bottle chips are 5600 - 6200. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 9.75% for EG, 12.56% for PX, 12.61% for PTA, and 9.81% for bottle chips. Their 3 - year historical percentile volatilities are 3.2%, 27.4%, 19.0%, and 13.4% respectively [2]. 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about EG price drops, they can short EG2601 futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4320 - 4420. They can also buy EG2601P4100 put options to prevent large price drops and sell EG2601C4500 call options to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 20 - 30 and 50 - 80 respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy EG2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 4180 - 4250. They can also sell EG2601P4100 put options to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the EG price drops, they can lock in the spot purchase price, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 50 - 80 [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Price Data**: On September 26, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $68.8 per barrel, up $0.2 from the previous day; Naphtha CFR Japan was at $608.5 per ton, up $2.5. There were various price changes for other products such as PX, PTA, EG, and polyester fibers [6][10]. - **Spread Data**: TA main - contract basis was - 51 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous day; EG main - contract basis was 79 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. There were also changes in month - to - month spreads for PX, PTA, and EG [10]. - **Processing Fee and Production - Sales Rate**: The gasoline reforming spread was $29 per ton, up $4 from the previous day; POY profit was 121 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton. The production - sales rates of polyester filaments, short - fibers, and slices all showed different degrees of change [10]. 3.4 Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", with a limited expected impact on the EG supply side, and further details need to be monitored [4]. - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of coal - based marginal plants to below the cost line, strengthening cost support. A 750,000 - ton/year EG plant in Malaysia has shut down due to technical issues, with an undetermined restart time, potentially reducing imports in October. A 400,000 - ton/year EG plant in Fujian plans to shut down for about two weeks in October, and a 200,000 - ton EG plant in Ningxia Kunpeng plans to start trial production at the end of October [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August, the import and export data of the polyester chain showed differentiation. PX imports continued to grow, and ethylene glycol imports remained stable. PTA exports declined, while polyester exports continued to rise year - on - year. Textile and clothing exports also showed different trends, with textile exports rebounding and clothing exports decreasing. The short - term impact of tariffs on clothing and textile exports has decreased, but the tariff negotiation dynamics need continuous attention [2]. 3. Summary by Content PX Import - In August, PX imports reached 87.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 615.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to expand. The top three import sources were South Korea, Japan, and Brunei [6][8]. PTA Export - In August, PTA exports were 29.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.8%. From January to August, the cumulative export was 253 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. The top five export destinations from January to August were Vietnam, Egypt, Oman, Turkey, and Pakistan. In August, exports to Turkey and India decreased significantly [3]. Ethylene Glycol Import - In August, ethylene glycol imports were 59.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume from Saudi Arabia decreased, but the increase from Kuwait, Oman, and the United States offset the reduction. From January to August, the cumulative import was 502.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%, and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. Saudi Arabia is the main source of ethylene glycol imports, and future imports are expected to increase [6]. Polyester Export - From January to August, the cumulative polyester export was 962 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.8%. In August, the export was 122.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. Short - fiber and filament exports performed well, while bottle - chip and film exports decreased month - on - month. The top five export destinations from January to August were Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, and India [4][5]. Textile and Clothing Export - From January to August, the cumulative textile and clothing export was $197.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, textile exports were $94.53 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, and clothing exports were $102.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. In August, textile exports increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while clothing exports decreased [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Industry Chain Monthly Report for September [3][14][24] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [12][21][34] Core Viewpoint There is no explicit core viewpoint provided in the given content. Summary by Section 1. PX (Paraxylene) - **Price - related Charts**: Include PX产业链价格 (PX industrial chain price), PX浮动价 (PX floating price), PX月差 (PX monthly spread), PX基差 (PX basis), PX价格结构 (PX price structure), PX - BLENT价差 (PX - BLEND spread), 亚洲PXN价差 (Asian PXN spread), 韩国PX - MX价差 (Korean PX - MX spread) [11][17][19][21] - **Supply - related Charts**: PX月均开工率 (PX monthly average operating rate), PX进口量 (PX import volume), PX社会库存 (PX social inventory), PX平衡表 (PX balance sheet) [31][34][38] 2. PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Price - related Charts**: PTA现货价格 (PTA spot price), PTA01合约现货基差 (PTA01 contract spot basis), PTA15月差 (PTA15 monthly spread), PTA - PX价差 (PTA - PX spread) [42] - **Supply - demand Charts**: PTA月均开工率 (PTA monthly average operating rate), PTA社会库存 (PTA social inventory), PTA出口量 (PTA export volume), PTA码头库存 (PTA terminal inventory), PTA平衡表 (PTA balance sheet) [43][45][49][50] - **PTA Balance Sheet Data**: From January to December 2025, data on PTA产能 (capacity), 产量 (output), 开工率 (operating rate), 进口量 (import volume), 出口量 (export volume), 净进口 (net import), 总供应 (total supply), 聚酯产能 (polyester capacity), 聚酯产量 (polyester output), PTA理论消费量 (theoretical PTA consumption), 其他领域消费量 (consumption in other fields), PTA总需求量 (total PTA demand), 库存增减 (inventory change) are provided [51] 3. MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - **Price - related Charts**: MEG华东现货价格 (MEG East China spot price), MEG01合约现货基差 (MEG01 contract spot basis), MEG15月差 (MEG15 monthly spread), MEG乙烯单体制利润 (MEG ethylene monomer production profit), MEG合成气制利润 (MEG syngas production profit) [56] - **Supply - demand Charts**: MEG中国装置月均开工 (MEG monthly average operating rate of Chinese plants), MEG进口量 (MEG import volume), MEG主港库存 (MEG main port inventory), MEG平衡表 (MEG balance sheet) [56][61][62] - **MEG Balance Sheet Data**: From January to December 2025, data on MEG产能 (capacity), 产量 (output), 进口量 (import volume), 净进口 (net import), 表需 (apparent demand), 聚酯产能 (polyester capacity), 聚酯产量 (polyester output), 折合MEG消费量 (equivalent MEG consumption), 其他领域消费量 (consumption in other fields), MEG库存变化 (MEG inventory change) are provided [62] 4. Polyester Products - **General Polyester**: Polyester月均开工率 (polyester monthly average operating rate), 聚酯加权利润 (weighted polyester profit) [67] - **Filament**: 长丝开工率 (filament operating rate), 长丝平均利润 (average filament profit), 长丝库存天数 (filament inventory days) [65][71] - **Staple Fiber**: 短纤工厂开工率 (staple fiber factory operating rate), 短纤工厂利润 (staple fiber factory profit), 短纤库存天数 (staple fiber inventory days) [68][71] - **Pure Polyester Yarn**: 纯涤纱开工 (pure polyester yarn operating rate), 纯涤纱成品库存 (pure polyester yarn finished product inventory) [72] - **Bottle Chip**: 瓶片开工率 (bottle chip operating rate), 瓶片现货加工费 (bottle chip spot processing fee) [76][81] 5. Downstream Industries - **Weaving and Dyeing**: 江浙织机开工率 (Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate), 江浙加弹开工率 (Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate), 江浙印染开机率 (Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine operating rate) [77][81][82] 6. Raw Material Inventory - **PTA Raw Material Inventory**: 聚酯工厂PTA原料库存 (PTA raw material inventory in polyester factories) [79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral in the short term and cautiously bearish in the medium term [5] Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand of the polyester industry chain has improved, leading to a rebound in the market. However, there are still various factors affecting the industry, including cost - side fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances in different segments, and uncertain future demand [1][2][3][4][5] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract price, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][16] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - This section includes PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Presents the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][46] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and inventory days of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [50][52][61] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventory, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [73][79][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and month - to - month spreads [91][95][102]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is favorable due to strong polyester filament sales, enhanced cost support, and high expectations of PTA device maintenance under low processing fees, leading to a rise in PTA prices. However, the PTA market is under pressure as domestic PTA devices return, PTA production increases, the PTA basis declines rapidly, and OPEC+ raises oil production, causing a significant drop in crude oil prices and a contraction in the spread between PX and naphtha [2]. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) futures rebounded slightly, and the spot market price strengthened slightly, but the basis negotiation continued to weaken. The overall inventory of MEG continued to decline, and the port is expected to continue destocking. However, the MEG price is under continuous pressure due to domestic device commissioning and the return of coal - based MEG devices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price rose from 482.3 yuan/barrel on September 24, 2025, to 490.6 yuan/barrel on September 25, 2025, an increase of 8.3 yuan [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The value decreased from 1121.1 yuan/ton to 1112.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.32 yuan; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3199 to 1.3121, a decrease of 0.0077 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price rose from 812 to 817, an increase of 5; the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 215 to 211, a decrease of 4 [2]. - **PTA**: The主力 futures price rose from 4626 yuan/ton to 4678 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the spot price rose from 4525 yuan/ton to 4585 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot processing fee increased from 202.8 yuan/ton to 213.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.6 yuan; the disk processing fee increased from 268.8 yuan/ton to 291.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.6 yuan; the basis remained unchanged at (73); the number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 32714 [2]. - **MEG**: The主力 futures price rose from 4234 yuan/ton to 4246 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan; the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (133.86) yuan/ton to (131.05) yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan; the MEG domestic price rose from 4301 to 4315, an increase of 14 yuan; the basis increased from 68 to 70, an increase of 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate remained unchanged at 85.57% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate decreased from 79.38% to 78.12%, a decrease of 1.26% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate remained unchanged at 62.62% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load decreased from 89.00% to 87.81%, a decrease of 1.19% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F decreased from 6600 to 6530, a decrease of 70 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 40 to (86), a decrease of 126 yuan; the price of FDY150D/96F decreased from 6745 to 6720, a decrease of 25 yuan; the cash flow decreased from (315) to (396), a decrease of 81 yuan; the price of DTY150D/48F decreased from 7855 to 7840, a decrease of 15 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 95 to 24, a decrease of 71 yuan; the sales rate increased from 80% to 175%, an increase of 95% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6460 to 6500, an increase of 40 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 250 to 234, a decrease of 16 yuan; the sales rate increased from 67% to 88%, an increase of 21% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5690 to 5725, an increase of 35 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 30 to 9, a decrease of 21 yuan; the sales rate increased from 143% to 152%, an increase of 9% [2]. Device Maintenance - Two PTA devices in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market has a high supply, and there is a possibility of price cuts. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the peak season from September to October, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease [2]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The current oil market shows a game between weak macro - expectations and tight spot fundamentals. It is likely to operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to focus on unilateral segment operations [24]. - **Methanol Industry**: The port inventory has decreased. The supply in the inland is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral, and the futures price fluctuates between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations [29]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures market shows a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to the deepening contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Although the cost provides some support, it is difficult to reverse the market downturn [37]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: PP production has decreased recently, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a high point, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory has decreased. The pressure of inventory accumulation for 01 contracts is relatively large, which limits the upward space [43]. - **Polyester Industry**: PX supply increases, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand is expected to be weak. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and the short - term basis is supported. Ethylene glycol supply - demand is gradually weakening. Short - fiber support is strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip supply - demand is still loose [46]. - **Styrene Industry**: The supply of pure benzene is loose, and the demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene is relatively loose, and the port inventory has accumulated, so the price may be under pressure [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged, while PVC prices showed a slight increase. The futures prices of some contracts decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 5%. The demand for downstream products of caustic soda and PVC generally increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the inventory in some areas decreased. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly, and the total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 26th, Brent crude oil rose by 0.16%, WTI rose by 0.45%, and SC fell by 1.55%. The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [24]. - **Market Logic**: The market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks and tight supply to concerns about the macro - economy. The strong US economic data and the expected resumption of crude oil supply in the Kurdish region of Iraq put pressure on oil prices, while the supply interruption concerns caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the price [24]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some methanol futures contracts increased slightly, and the spot prices of some regions decreased slightly [29]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, mainly due to increased demand for pick - up and a significant decrease in the unloading volume of imported ships [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply in the inland is at a high level, and the demand is affected by the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral [29]. Urea Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures prices of urea showed a weak and volatile pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [34]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The prices of upstream raw materials were relatively stable, and the prices of downstream products were mostly unchanged. The cross - regional spreads and basis differences changed to some extent [35][36][37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea was at a high level, the agricultural demand was in the off - season, and the industrial demand was dragged down by the decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate [37]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some polyolefin futures contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads between some contracts decreased significantly [43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rates also increased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: On September 25th, the prices of some polyester products changed. The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and PX also fluctuated. The spreads and processing fees of related products changed [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PX increased, the supply of PTA was expected to shrink, ethylene glycol supply - demand was gradually weakening, short - fiber supply was at a high level, and bottle - chip supply - demand was still loose [46]. Styrene Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of upstream raw materials and styrene - related products changed to some extent. The cash flows of some products improved [49][50][51]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the styrene inventory increased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene was loose, and the demand support was limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene was relatively loose, and the port inventory had accumulated [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to inventory depletion, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment. The Brent crude oil has strong support at the $65 level [1]. - The prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound slightly following the oil price, but the upside space is limited due to increasing supply in the future [2]. - The asphalt price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of the demand peak season [2]. - The prices of polyester products such as TA and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors like increased maintenance in the fourth quarter, slow recovery of terminal demand, and pressure on long - term oil prices [4]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slow recovery of production, stable downstream tire demand, and weakening export support [6]. - The methanol price is expected to enter a phased bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen, but there are risks in short - term unilateral long positions [6]. - The polyolefin market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern with marginal improvement in demand and little change in supply [8]. - The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high - level supply, slow recovery of domestic demand, and weakening exports [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The EIA reported a decline in US crude and refined product inventories last week. An agreement on resuming oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdistan region was reached. The Brent crude has strong support at $65, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and changes in supply affected the market. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support, but increasing supply will pressure the market in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the asphalt price rose. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate increased. The traditional consumption peak season has备货 demand, but high - level supply may limit price increases [2]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, the prices of TA, EG, and PX rose. Some devices were affected by typhoons and other factors. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the prices of various types of rubber rose. There were disturbances in production areas, and the supply and demand increased simultaneously. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [6]. - **Methanol**: Supply is at a low level due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The price is expected to enter a phased bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are given. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC market price was adjusted. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing but weak year - on - year. Supply is high, demand recovery is slow, and exports are affected by policies. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, etc. of various energy - chemical varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on September 24 and 23 [10]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA reported that US crude and refined product inventories decreased last week, and the net import volume of crude oil increased while the export volume decreased [12]. - Eight oil companies in the Iraqi Kurdistan region reached a principle agreement on resuming oil exports, which will allow about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil to be transported through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are provided [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads of inter - period contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. are presented [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are shown [59][61][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, etc. are provided [69][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA installations are gradually resuming, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production. The PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under significant pressure due to Hengli's concentrated sales. OPEC+ has increased oil production again, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. The spread between PX and naphtha has narrowed. With recent weakening sales and rising inventories, especially as the off - season approaches, the polyester operating load has risen to 91%. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening basis, PTA has shown weak performance [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The inventory of ethylene glycol at East China ports is 46.5 million tons. The weekly port arrivals are still limited, and the shipping volume from the main warehouse in Zhangjiagang continues to increase, resulting in a continuous decline in the overall ethylene glycol inventory. The ethylene glycol port is expected to continue destocking. Although the import of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline, the commissioning of domestic installations has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. Coal - based ethylene glycol installations are also resuming. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 473.1 yuan/barrel on September 23, 2025, to 482.3 yuan/barrel on September 24, 2025, with a change of 9.20 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 rose from 4556 yuan/ton to 4626 yuan/ton, the spot price increased from 4470 yuan/ton to 4525 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee rose from 172.3 yuan/ton to 202.8 yuan/ton, the basis improved from - 79 to - 73, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased by 600 to 32714 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4212 yuan/ton to 4234 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread changed from - 126.98 yuan/ton to - 126.17 yuan/ton, the MEG domestic price rose from 4297 yuan/ton to 4301 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased from 76 to 68 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F decreased by 45 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6460 yuan/ton to 6539 yuan/ton, and the semi - bright polyester chip price increased from 5650 yuan/ton to 5690 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained at 85.57%, PTA operating rate was stable at 79.38%, MEG operating rate stayed at 62.62%, and polyester load remained at 89.00% [2]. Sales and Production Ratios - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament increased from 38% to 80%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber increased from 48% to 67%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased from 58% to 143% [2]. Device Maintenance - Two PTA installations in South China with a total capacity of 500 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Group 1: Report Core View - Domestic PTA device gradually returns, PTA production increases, PTA basis drops rapidly, and the market is under pressure. OPEC+ increases oil production again, causing a sharp decline in crude oil prices. The spread between PX and naphtha narrows. Recently, production and sales have weakened and inventory has increased. The polyester operating load has risen to 91%, but PTA shows weakness due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the basis [2] Group 2: Data Summary Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4470 to 4525, a change of 55 [2] - MEG inner - market price increased from 4297 to 4301, a change of 4 [2] - PTA closing price increased from 4556 to 4626, a change of 70 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4212 to 4234, a change of 22 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6440 to 6460, a change of 20 [2] - Polyester staple fiber basis remained unchanged at 149 [2] - 10 - 11 spread increased from 4 to 6, a change of 2 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5625 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 815 to 835, a change of 20 [2] - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5757 to 5804, a change of 47 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5757 to 5804, a change of 47 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5857 to 5904, a change of 47 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 755 to 760, a change of 5 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 496 to 494, a change of - 1.37 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10270 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3830 to 3810, a change of - 20 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16250 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14755 to 14775, a change of 20 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1403 to 1382, a change of - 20.82 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7050 to 7020, a change of - 30 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 589 to 510, a change of - 78.37 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7430 to 7350, a change of - 80 [2] Operating Rate and Production and Sales - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 30.00% to 64.00%, a change of 34.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00%, a change of 0.01 [3] Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: Ethylene glycol rose by 20 to 4234, and polyester staple fiber rose by 62 to 6296. The price of polyester staple fiber production factories was stable, the price of traders rose slightly, and a few downstream enterprises restocked before the festival. The trading in the market was differentiated [2] - Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures were weakly operating, the supply side adjusted the offer downward, the downstream terminal restocked on a rigid - demand basis, and the market negotiation atmosphere was okay, but the price center of bottle chips declined today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].