证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指涨0.39%，A股成交量980.00亿股，成交金额16999.36 亿元，比上一个交易日增加21.19%。个股方面，1390只个股上涨，其中涨停53只，3998只个股下跌， 其中跌停22只。从申万行业来看，有色金属、石油石化、非银金融等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为5.02%、 3.79%、2.04%；国防军工、传媒、计算机等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为3.43%、2.74%、1.95%。（数据宝） | 房地产 | | | | 万通发展 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -1.95 | 1186.13 | 30.39 | 浩瀚深度 | -9.56 | | 传媒 | -2.74 | 587.64 | 28.52 | 天龙集团 | -8.86 | | 国防军工 | -3.43 | 926.12 | 4.22 | 亚光科技 | -12.82 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the bond market, focusing on the recovery trends observed since mid-January 2026, with specific attention to government bonds and credit bonds [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Recovery of the Bond Market - The bond market has shown signs of recovery due to three main factors: 1. **Stability of Government and Local Bonds**: The stability of interest rates for government bonds and local bonds has been crucial. The 10-year government bond has remained stable, not exceeding 1.9%, while local bonds have stayed below 2.5% [2]. 2. **Banking Sector Participation**: There has been an increase in bank allocations to bonds, particularly after the clarity of KPIs for banks in 2026. This has led to a stronger demand for bonds, especially those with shorter durations [3][4]. 3. **External Support Factors**: External factors such as the stagnation of equity markets and expectations of monetary easing have contributed to the bond market's recovery. The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has also seen increased volumes, indicating a supportive monetary environment [4][5]. Future Market Outlook - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious but optimistic. Short-duration bonds are expected to perform well, while long-duration bonds may face more volatility. The market anticipates that the recovery could serve as a precedent for future bond market trends in 2026 [5][6]. - The potential for downward movement in interest rates exists, particularly for 10-year government bonds, if deposit rates continue to decline [5][6]. Risks and Challenges - The bond market may face challenges related to supply and demand mismatches, especially in the first and second quarters of 2026. The issuance of local bonds is expected to be high, which could lead to increased pressure on the market [9][10]. - The risk indicators for banks remain a concern, particularly for smaller banks, which may face stricter regulations and slower adjustments to their risk profiles [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on 10-year government bonds and certain credit bonds, particularly those with favorable yield spreads. The expectation is that these assets will provide stability and potential for appreciation in the current market environment [11][12]. - The discussion also highlights the potential for industry-specific perpetual bonds, particularly those issued by state-owned enterprises, which are seen as having a favorable risk-return profile [17][18]. Market Dynamics - The dynamics of the bond market are influenced by the behavior of institutional investors, with a noted shift towards increasing allocations in response to market conditions. The performance of convertible bonds is also highlighted, with expectations of continued demand despite some volatility [26][27]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently in a recovery phase, supported by stable interest rates, increased bank participation, and favorable external conditions. However, potential risks related to supply-demand mismatches and regulatory pressures on banks warrant careful monitoring. Investment strategies should focus on stable, shorter-duration bonds and select credit instruments to navigate the evolving landscape [36].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is experiencing a bull market that has lasted for 24 months, entering its mid-to-late stage, benefiting from a downturn in the real estate and trust industries, leading to capital inflow into the securities market. The outlook for the next decade remains positive, but the spring offensive in 2026 should be viewed as a mid-game break [1][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown slight upward movement, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have entered a correction phase, indicating a consolidation of heavyweight indices. Conversely, small and mid-cap growth stocks have performed strongly, with the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 reaching new highs since September 2024 [1][5][6]. - In the recent week, 17 out of 24 sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index saw gains, with small and mid-cap sectors showing significant excess returns [7]. Sector Analysis - Underperforming sectors include construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, environmental protection, and textiles, while sectors such as non-ferrous metals, defense, and basic chemicals have shown strong performance [8]. - The recent rebound in underperforming sectors is attributed to the market entering a mid-to-late stage, with a rotation and broad-based rally emerging. Stocks that had been stagnant are beginning to rise, particularly in construction materials and oil and petrochemicals [9]. Investment Strategy - A dual strategy is recommended: 1. Invest in indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 for relative returns. 2. Focus on sectors with high growth potential and reasonable valuations, such as electronics, semiconductor storage, and renewable energy [3][14]. - Investors are advised to avoid panic selling due to corrections in heavyweight indices, as adjustments are not expected to be severe. Short-term strategies should avoid blind chasing of high prices [12][13]. Future Market Outlook - The heavyweight indices may continue to adjust, while growth indices like CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are expected to maintain upward momentum. The Shanghai Composite Index is currently above the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for upward movement, but caution is advised as the slope has flattened [11]. Regulatory Impact - New regulations set to take effect on March 1 will require disclosure of deviations and gradually increase external monitoring, leading to a decrease in investment freedom. Prior to this, optimizing portfolios for maximum returns is essential, while post-regulation, a focus on balanced allocation will be necessary [22][25]. Key Focus Areas - Attention should be given to the banking and non-banking financial sectors, which have seen significant declines. The telecommunications sector also requires close monitoring due to signs of weakness in leading stocks [10]. Conclusion - The market is characterized by structural differentiation, with small-cap stocks showing superior performance. Investors should remain vigilant and adjust strategies according to market conditions, particularly during the spring rally period [21][23].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic trends, inflation expectations, and the performance of various industries in the context of the Chinese and U.S. markets. [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has improved, particularly in second and third-tier cities, indicating a recovery in market activity to about 50-66% of previous levels. [2] Inflation Expectations - A "pork-oil resonance" phenomenon is anticipated in 2026, signaling the end of deflation and a return to inflation, with a CPI central tendency expected to reach 0.5% and PPI likely turning positive in Q3. [1][3][4] Industry Focus - Industries that may benefit from the positive PPI include resource-related sectors and raw materials, while the technology sector's valuations are no longer seen as advantageous. [1][4] U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience a rally from May to August 2026, potentially boosting related sectors such as computing power. However, the main focus remains on the implications of PPI turning positive. [1][6] PPI Impact on Industries - Positive PPI is expected to favor industries such as construction materials, non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals, while sectors like machinery, automotive, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and home appliances show strong alpha correlation but weak beta correlation. [1][7][8] Currency Exchange Rate - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate significantly, with the effective exchange rate expected to return to levels seen at the end of 2024. This appreciation will benefit yuan-denominated assets, including Hong Kong stocks. [1][9] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks are increasing due to the disintegration of the old international order, U.S. strategic adjustments, and rising global political uncertainties. Key areas of concern include the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in Iran, and developments in U.S.-China relations. [1][10][11] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content Specific Industry Dynamics - The relationship between PPI and various industries has shifted, with some sectors like real estate losing their previous correlation with PPI, while others have become more competitive due to changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics. [1][7][8] Recent Developments in Geopolitical Situations - The situation in Greenland has shown signs of easing, with diplomatic negotiations taking precedence over military threats. However, tensions remain in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. [10][11][12][14] U.S.-China Relations - Recent developments indicate a potential stabilization in U.S.-China relations, with high-level diplomatic engagements expected to continue throughout the year. [15][16]

人民币升值期间大类资产复盘 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260116-20260123) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾： 本周 (20260116-20260123)全球地缘政治冲突加剧，贵金属继续上 行。1）固收方面， 10Y美债收益率维持在4.2%的水平，美元指数下行1.88%； 2）权益 方面， 本周上证指数整体上行，中证1000和科创50涨幅靠前，上证50跌幅较大；全球市 场中巴西、阿根廷股价涨幅较大，其中A股行业中建筑材料，石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前， 银行跌幅较大，港股耐用消费品领涨； 3）商品方面， 本周黄金上涨8.3%，主要是因为 地缘政治冲突集中爆发。 聚焦热点：人民币升值期间大类资产表现复盘 ：2000年以来，人民币汇率共经历了6轮升 值与4轮贬值，人民币汇率变化主要受到汇率制度改革、全球贸易周期以及中美货币政策 周期变化的影响。 国内大类资产方面，人民币升值期间，股票稳定的胜率更高，债券和 商品表现规律并不统一。 股票方面 ，创业板整体跑赢沪深300（除2017年），小盘整体 跑赢大盘（除2017年）。 债券方面， 2017、2023、2025年升值期间，国债指数录得负收 益，其他几 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [173]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are supporting international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaging $64.8 and $60.1 per barrel, respectively, showing a slight increase of $0.1 and a decrease of $0.1 from the previous week [2]. - U.S. crude oil production is reported at 13.73 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease of 20,000 barrels per day week-on-week, while active oil rigs increased by 1 to 411 [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Oil Data Brief - The report provides a comprehensive overview of weekly oil data, including price trends, inventory levels, production rates, and import/export statistics [5][7][8]. 2. Oil and Petrochemical Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown varied performance, with specific companies experiencing significant fluctuations in stock prices over the past week, month, and year [21][22]. 3. Crude Oil Data Tracking - Crude oil prices have been tracked, showing fluctuations in both Brent and WTI prices, alongside inventory levels and production data [25][26][37]. - U.S. crude oil inventories have increased, with total inventories reported at 840 million barrels, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 441,000 barrels [2][44]. 4. Refined Oil Data Tracking - The report details refined oil prices, inventory levels, production, and consumption trends, indicating a decrease in refinery throughput to 16.6 million barrels per day, down by 350,000 barrels per day [4][74]. - Refined oil inventories have also seen changes, with gasoline and diesel inventories increasing by 598,000 and 335,000 barrels, respectively [2][108]. 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - The oil service sector is analyzed, focusing on the average day rates for drilling rigs and the overall performance of service companies [158][161].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is optimistic about the equity market before the end of February, and focuses on whether the current growth - dominant style can gradually shift to a balanced or even value - dominant style. If this scenario occurs, the risk of bond market adjustment in February will increase [2][9][22]. - In the context of the marginal convergence of the national balance sheet, the top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style judgment will receive more attention and favor from the market [9][22]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the margin of the stock - bond ratio in favor of equities is limited, and the probability of value being relatively dominant in style is higher [10][58]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In December 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.4%, down from the previous value of 8.6%, in line with expectations. It is expected to continue to decline to around 8.3% in January 2026. The local bond issuance rhythm seems to have accelerated this week. If it continues in February, it may drive a slight rebound in the liability growth rate of the real sector, but the probability of further relaxation of the capital market in February is limited [2][17]. - The central bank's fourth - quarter meeting in 2025 indicated that the general direction of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and it is waiting for the quantitative fiscal targets to be given at the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][17]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Policy - Last week, the net increase of government bonds (including national and local bonds) was 62.14 billion yuan, higher than the planned 50.75 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net increase is 14.13 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of December 2025 was 12.4%, down from the previous value of 13.1%. It is expected to rebound to around 12.5% in January 2026 and likely decline again in February [3][18]. 3.1.3 Monetary Policy - Last week, the capital trading volume decreased, the capital price decreased, and the term spread narrowed on a weekly average basis. After excluding seasonal effects, the capital market slightly tightened. The one - year Treasury bond yield oscillated upward, closing at 1.28% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, and the central value is around 1.4%. It is expected to cut interest rates by 10 basis points in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 55 basis points. The bond market shows that the capital market has basically reached the limit of relaxation [3][18]. 3.1.4 Asset Side - In December 2025, the physical quantity data continued to run smoothly compared with November. It is necessary to focus on whether the economy can continue to stabilize or even improve marginally. The Two Sessions set the annual real economic growth target for 2025 at around 5%. Based on the deficit and deficit rate (4%), the annual nominal economic growth target is 4.9%. It is necessary to further observe whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has entered a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in the fourth quarter of 2024. Subsequently, China's profit cycle has entered a state of low - level narrow - range oscillation. The Chinese government put forward three policy goals in 2016: stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, making the financial sector benefit the real economy, and ensuring that houses are for living in, not for speculation. Currently, the convergence of the liability side has not ended, but the space is limited [7][20]. - Overseas, China and the United States are in a state of equal - strength competition. If the valuation of the technology fields where the United States was previously leading undergoes a systematic re - evaluation, global funds may flow from the United States to China. Attention should be paid to whether the RMB exchange rate begins to gradually enter an appreciation channel. The risk preference may also enter a range - bound state following the profit [7][20][21]. - Last week, the capital market slightly tightened. The equity market rose as a whole, but value stocks continued to weaken, with the growth style remaining dominant. In terms of bond yields, the long - end declined slightly, and the short - end rose. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness slightly favored equities. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.83%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.28%, the term spread narrowed to 55 basis points, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 2.29%. The full - position equity strategy with equal allocation of growth and value performed well, and the broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.29 pct last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, the broad - based rotation strategy has underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 1.49 pct, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared with 15.7% for the CSI 300 index) [8][21]. - This week, the Shanghai 50 Index (60% position) and the CSI 1000 Index (40% position) are recommended. The broad - based index recommendation is a top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style judgment, which can accommodate a large amount of funds, has small fluctuations, and good liquidity [9][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.3%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals had the largest increases, with weekly increases of 9.2%, 7.7%, 7.3%, 7.3%, and 6% respectively. Banks, communications, non - bank finance, food and beverages, and pharmaceuticals had the largest declines, with weekly declines of - 2.7%, - 2.1%, - 1.5%, - 1.4%, and - 0.4% respectively [28]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of January 23, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery, non - ferrous metals, and computers, with crowding degrees of 17.7%, 11.7%, 7.3%, 7.3%, and 6.7% respectively. The bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, coal, social services, and textile and apparel, with crowding degrees of 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively. - This week, the top five industries with the largest increase in crowding were national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and machinery, with increases of 1.4%, 1%, 0.8%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively. The top five with the largest decline were electronics, computers, communications, pharmaceuticals, and social services, with changes in crowding degrees of - 2%, - 1.8%, - 0.7%, - 0.3%, and - 0.2% respectively. - As of January 23, the crowding degrees of national defense and military industry, power equipment, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery were at the 98.7%, 93.7%, 92.8%, 89.5%, and 86.9% quantiles since 2018 respectively, which were relatively high. Transportation, food and beverages, agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry, beauty care, and pharmaceuticals were at the 0.4%, 0.7%, 2.4%, 2.6%, and 2.9% quantiles respectively, which were relatively low. - This week, the average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 2.8 trillion yuan, up from 3.47 trillion yuan last week. Basic chemicals, real estate, public utilities, building materials, and steel had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, with changes of 7.5%, 7.3%, 4.4%, 3.5%, and 3.2% respectively. Media, computers, non - bank finance, social services, and commercial retail had the largest declines in trading volume, with changes of - 45.9%, - 44.6%, - 44.2%, - 38.5%, and - 37.3% respectively [29][32]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals had the largest increases in PE(TTM), with changes of 9.3%, 7.7%, 7.4%, 7.4%, and 6.1% respectively. Banks, communications, food and beverages, non - bank finance, and pharmaceuticals had the largest declines, with valuation changes of - 2.8%, - 2.1%, - 1.4%, - 1.4%, and - 0.5% respectively. - In terms of valuation - earnings matching, as of January 23, 2026, industries with relatively high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, coal, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [35][36]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. In December, the global manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.5 to 50.4, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed trends. The CCFI index decreased by 0.09% week - on - week in the latest week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 13.4% in December and to 14.9% in the first 20 days of January. Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 15.8% in November to 23.9% in December. - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price rose in the latest week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The traffic volume of trucks on expressways increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries fitting continued to decline from September to October 2025, continued to rise from November to December, and slightly declined in January. Automobile trading volume was relatively weak compared to historical seasonality, new - home sales remained at a historical low, and second - hand home sales were relatively weak compared to historical seasonality. As of January 18, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index rose 0.27% compared to last week. As of January 2, the producer price index rose 0.3% week - on - week [39]. 3.3.5 Public Offering Market Review - In the third week of January (January 19 - 23), most active public offering equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The weekly growth rates of the 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% quantiles were 4.7%, 3.5%, 2.7%, and 1.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 declined 0.6% weekly. - According to the latest net value and share estimates, as of January 23, the net asset value of active public offering equity funds was 4.06 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [55]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the margin of the stock - bond ratio in favor of equities is limited, and the probability of value being relatively dominant in style is higher. Red - chip stocks are generally expected to have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. Combining these three characteristics with the under - allocation in the public offering's fourth - quarter report, the recommended A + H red - chip portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation. Some industries with a large number of stocks, such as banks, have been appropriately streamlined [10][58].

Global Market Overview - During the period from January 16 to January 23, 2026, geopolitical conflicts intensified, leading to an increase in precious metals, with gold rising by 8.3%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at 4.2%, while the U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.88%[6] Asset Performance During RMB Appreciation - Since 2000, the RMB has experienced 6 rounds of appreciation and 4 rounds of depreciation, influenced by currency reforms and global trade cycles[8] - During RMB appreciation, stocks generally showed higher stability, with the ChiNext outperforming the CSI 300, except in 2017[10] - In the bond market, the national debt index recorded negative returns during appreciation periods in 2017, 2023, and 2025, while other periods showed positive returns[10] Fund Flows - As of January 21, 2026, both domestic and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds inflowing $3.38 billion and passive funds inflowing $16.65 billion[3] - Domestic capital saw an outflow of $493.17 billion, while foreign capital inflow totaled $20.03 billion in the same week[3] Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeded that of the KOSPI 200, CAC 40, and S&P 500, reaching 92.9% of its 10-year historical average[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite remains relatively high, indicating good allocation value compared to global markets[3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the PCE index, has remained low, indicating economic cooling[5] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% is 95.60%, stable compared to the previous week[5]

Group 1 - The equity market experienced a volatile upward trend from January 19 to 23, 2026, with the Wande All A closing at 6893.11, up 1.81% from January 16, and the China Convertible Bond Index rising 2.92 during the same period [1][9] - The market has entered a narrow fluctuation range since January 13, with a net outflow of 265.9 billion yuan from stock ETFs from January 19 to 22, indicating a "slow bull" market sentiment [1][16] - The implied volatility has returned to a low level, suggesting a nurturing environment for a rebound, with the market attempting to break out of the fluctuation state [1][21] Group 2 - The strategy suggests maintaining a "slow bull" mindset, as the market attempts to break out of the narrow fluctuation range and return to an upward trend [2] - Historical analysis of 64 cases of upward breakouts from narrow fluctuation ranges since 2005 shows that such breakouts typically lead to a sustained upward trend [2][42] - The analysis of 48 instances of volume peaks since 2005 indicates that while upward trends continue after volume peaks, the pace of increase slows down, often leading to prolonged periods of fluctuation before resuming upward trends [2][45] Group 3 - In the convertible bond market, the valuation indicators are showing a decline in their timing significance, with the absolute price median and valuation center remaining at historically high levels [3][29] - The valuation center for convertible bonds at various price points remains high, with the 80 yuan parity corresponding to a valuation center of 54.44%, and the 100 yuan parity at 41.12% [3][29] - The market for convertible bonds is seeing renewed inflows, particularly in the context of strong underlying stocks, with a significant reduction in the number of convertible bonds priced below 130 yuan [3][61]

证券研究报告 短期交易地缘局势动荡，油价或震荡偏强 原油月报： 2026年1月报 证券分析师 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号：S1060523110001 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524070002 石油石化 强于大市（维持） 2026年1月25日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心观点： 短期地缘风险升温，油价或呈震荡偏强走势 • 国际油价回顾：2026年1月油价呈现震荡偏强走势。2026年初以来，美委关系紧张，中东局势动荡，地缘风险升温再次成为支撑油价的主 因。重点影响事件：1）2026年1月3日,美国对委内瑞拉多处目标发动军事袭击，特朗普称抓获其总统马杜罗及其夫人并带离委内瑞拉， 并称美国将深度介入委内瑞拉石油产业。2）1月9日，特朗普与约20家石油企业高管会晤，要求他们向委内瑞拉投资1000亿美元以大幅增 产石油，但未获积极响应。3）1月12日，特朗普称对伊朗所有贸易伙伴征收25%关税。4）1月12日，维托尔集团和托克集团两家贸易巨头 已获美国政府初步批准销售委内瑞拉原油，近期就潜在的委内瑞拉原油销售事宜与中印大型炼油商展开磋商。5）1月15日消息，美国 "亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰协同多艘舰艇正驶 ...