1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market sentiment is warm, and the bond market continues to fluctuate. For stock index futures, sentiment is positive with healthy long - short position changes; for stock index options, a covered defense strategy is recommended; for treasury bond futures, the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: IF, IH, IC, and IM's current - month basis, inter - period spreads, and positions changed. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated higher on Monday, with small - cap sentiment remaining active. Large - cap stocks retreated after capital congestion, and funds flowed to small - cap stocks. IM saw healthy long - short position changes, with a significant decrease in positions and wider intraday discounts [7]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks eased, the tariff deadline was postponed, and the market shifted its focus to internal profit improvement as the interim report announcements approached. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to allocate long IM contracts [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: The equity market oscillated upward with sectoral divergence. Although sentiment indicators rose with the underlying assets, the trading volume in the options market declined significantly, and trading liquidity was lower than expected [7]. - **Logic**: In a low - liquidity derivatives market, sentiment indicators showed synchronicity but no guiding effect. Implied volatility only corresponded to daily market fluctuations, and all varieties showed a decline in volatility in the morning. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered defense strategy [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. T, TF, TS, and TL's main contracts changed by - 0.16%, - 0.10%, - 0.05%, and - 0.43% respectively. Trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis all had corresponding changes [3][8][9]. - **Logic**: The central bank's second - quarter policy statement was positive, the end - of - month capital tightened, the June PMI was better than expected, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was evident. At the beginning of the month, the capital may seasonally loosen, but the central bank may be cautious in liquidity injection, and the supply of new local bonds in July may remain high [3][9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillating view; for hedging strategies, focus on short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately focus on basis widening; for curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium term has higher odds [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.2 Economic Calendar - The official manufacturing PMI in China in June was 49.7, better than the previous value of 49.5. The US will release the June ISM manufacturing index on July 1st, the June unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls change on July 3rd [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Bond Market**: As of the end of May, overseas institutions' custodial balance in the Chinese bond market was 4.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total. In the inter - bank bond market, the balance was 4.3 trillion yuan. Overseas institutions held 2.1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, 1.2 trillion yuan of negotiable certificates of deposit, and 0.8 trillion yuan of policy - bank bonds [11]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US Senate procedurally voted to pass the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill pushed by President Trump. The bill is estimated to increase the US federal government's debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next 10 years [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text.

Group 1: Overall Market Outlook - The current market situation is similar to 2013 and 2019, with a high probability of evolving into a comprehensive bull market, although tactical breakthroughs may take time [6][12] - The market is characterized by low valuation levels, weak corporate earnings, positive policy tone, and active thematic opportunities, indicating potential for a bull market [12][14] - A possible market pullback in July is expected, but the extent is manageable, with a return to bull market conditions likely in Q3 or Q4 if earnings or policies turn optimistic [12][14] Group 2: Industry Allocation Insights - The report suggests a value-oriented approach in the current quarter, with plans to increase exposure to more elastic sectors in Q3 [12][14] - Key sectors for investment include: - New Consumption: Benefiting from domestic demand stability and potential supportive policies [14] - Media: Attractive valuation with a focus on AI application changes [14] - Military Industry: Likely to see continuous thematic events due to unique demand cycles [14] - Banking and Non-Banking: Low sensitivity to overseas economic fluctuations and high sensitivity to domestic policies [14] - Non-ferrous Metals: Strong capacity structure with resilience to economic fluctuations [14] - Real Estate: Positioned for new policy initiatives with low valuation levels [14] Group 3: Top Stock Picks - The top stock picks for July 2025 include: - 分众传媒 (002027.SZ) in Media and Internet - 顺丰控股 (002352.SZ) in Transportation - 药师帮 (9885.HK) in Pharmaceuticals - 万辰集团 (300972.SZ) in Food and Beverage - 青岛银行 (002948.SZ) in Banking - 新集能源 (601918.SH) in Utilities - 豆神教育 (300010.SZ) in Education - 兖矿能源 (600188.SH) in Energy - 江淮汽车 (600418.SH) in Automotive - 卓易信息 (688258.SH) in Computing [3][15] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - 分众传媒 (002027.SZ) is focusing on offline advertising with a significant share of daily consumer goods advertisers [16] - 顺丰控股 (002352.SZ) has shown remarkable growth in logistics volume, outperforming industry growth rates, driven by customer penetration and operational optimizations [19][21] - 药师帮 (9885.HK) is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of approximately 164% in net profit from 2024 to 2027, benefiting from its deep market penetration and strong cash flow [25][27] - 万辰集团 (300972.SZ) maintains a competitive edge in the snack retail sector, with a focus on operational quality and profitability improvements [28][29] - 青岛银行 (002948.SZ) is expanding its business in a robust economic environment, with significant growth in deposits and loans, supported by a strong financial foundation [31][33]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.2 times, positioned at the historical 74th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.2 times, at the historical 57th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 31.9 times, at the historical 13th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 136.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile, suggesting a high valuation [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the spot price of the photovoltaic industry chain continues to decline, while the futures price of polysilicon has increased by 5.8% [2] - The price of silicon wafers has decreased by 1.4%, and the price of battery cells has remained stable [2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly installed wind power from January to May 2025 has increased by 134.2% [2] Financial Sector - Insurance companies' premium income from January to May 2025 has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to the first three months [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar has remained stable, while the price of cement has decreased by 1.6% due to weak demand from real estate and traditional infrastructure projects [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has increased by 3.5%, while the wholesale price of pork has decreased by 0.5% [3] - The wholesale price index of liquor has decreased by 0.11% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of foreign contracted engineering business from January to May 2025 has increased by 5.4% [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 12.9%, closing at $67.31 per barrel [3] - The price of thermal coal has increased by 1.8%, closing at 620 yuan per ton [3]

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 上证攻坚新高后，怎么看？ 市场思考：如何看待指数后续节奏？ 1）由于整体市场的显著放量，上周小盘拥挤度出现明显下行。指标从 65% 下行至 62.4%，目前的幅度已经与 25 年 4 月比较接近，1 月幅度则更大。 2）前两次后续市场出现调整的背景是市场处于成交额减量+小盘拥挤度上 行，表现在市场出现调整之前先出现了缩圈至小盘的现象，而上周以前，市 场存量稳定。这一轮从 4 月初挖坑以后开始上行，但期间成交额（MA20） 均处于 1.2 万亿左右的相对低位，在修复过程中并没有出现过热的情况。另 外，本轮从 4 月初至今的行情并没有过热，融资余额增幅较小。 3）复盘 2014 年，14 年上半年小盘持续跑赢大盘，像沪深 300 这类的大盘 指数的收盘价在 14 年的 3-6 月份创 2013 年以来的新低，小盘表现更强的 这个特征和现在相似。到了 14 年下半年，在 14 年 7 月-8 月上旬和 14 年 11 月-12 月也出现了【小盘拥挤度下行】+【成交额上行】这个组合，全 A 指数上行新高。另外，期间在 14 年 8 月下旬-10 月又回到了小盘风 ...

Group 1 - The technology sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by DeepSeek, while the dividend sector is underperforming, creating a "see-saw effect" between the two [2][4] - Technology stocks are characterized by high growth and volatility, while dividend stocks represent low-risk assets with stable cash dividends [5][6][7] - The current market environment suggests that a "barbell strategy" combining both technology and dividend stocks may be an effective approach for investors to manage risk and pursue returns [8][9] Group 2 - The technology sector benefits from economic recovery, technological breakthroughs, and policy support, making it sensitive to market dynamics [7] - Dividend stocks, primarily from traditional industries like banking and coal, serve as a defensive measure in volatile markets due to their high dividend yields [8] - Investors are advised to either engage in rotation strategies or maintain a focus on familiar sectors while considering a combination of dividend and technology stocks to navigate market uncertainties [9]

Group 1: Global Economic and Political Landscape - The current period is marked by a restructuring of the global political and economic landscape, coinciding with China's economic transformation and upgrading [1] - The joint statement from the China-U.S. Geneva Economic and Trade Talks in May indicates a temporary easing of bilateral trade relations, but deep-seated strategic competition is expected to persist, particularly in high-tech sectors [1] - China's "dual circulation" development strategy is being accelerated to address external challenges and stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - A significant turning point is anticipated in the global macro policy environment in the second half of 2025, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank [2] - China's fiscal policy will continue to play a crucial role in counter-cyclical adjustments, with plans for more robust fiscal measures, including increased special bond issuance and targeted support for housing and land reserves [3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential further reductions in reserve requirements and loan prime rates [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Market Dynamics - Structural investment opportunities in the second half of the year are expected to focus on technology, new consumption, stable dividend assets, and central government leverage [5] - The technology sector, particularly in areas like AI, semiconductors, and military applications, is highlighted as a key area for investment due to ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition [5] - The capital market is projected to exhibit resilience and vitality, with a focus on high-quality development and opportunities in autonomous innovation, consumption upgrades, and energy transition [6]

据CCTV国际时讯援引路透社报道，一名伊朗高级官员向路透社证实，伊朗已接受卡塔尔参与调解、美国提出的与以色列停火方案。就在早些时 候，美国总统特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗将分阶段全面停火。这个消息一出，在全球市场或将激起千层浪，对A股也势必产生深远影响。 2、避险资产也将面临回调压力。黄金、军工等冲突受益板块此前因市场恐慌情绪被推高，随着局势缓和，获利资金或加速离场。投资者需警惕前 期涨幅过高的避险个股出现技术性回调风险； 简单说，如果伊以真的停火，短期或有以下影响： 1、中东作为全球能源核心枢纽，其局势变化直接牵动大宗商品市场与全球供应链神经。若伊以停火落地，最直接的影响将体现在能源领域。霍尔 木兹海峡封锁风险大幅降低，国际油价短期暴涨预期随之消退。对A股而言，航空、交运等成本敏感型行业将率先受益，尤其是燃油成本下降直 接转化为企业利润，有望推动相关板块估值修复； 3、从更宏观的视角看，全球供应链有望迎来修复。此前因地缘冲突引发的运输中断、成本攀升等问题，将逐步得到缓解，A 股出口导向型企业的 经营压力随之减轻。同时，北向资金因避险情绪产生的大幅波动也将趋于平稳，为市场注入稳定性。 据中国基金报消息，美联储理事克 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 18.7 times, positioned at the historical 70th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.1 times, at the historical 56th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 27.7 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 30.4 times, at the historical 10th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 36.9 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the National 2000 Index is 48.3 times, at the historical 65th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 131.8 times, at the historical 97th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 63.9 times, at the historical 92nd percentile [3][6] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 4th percentile [3][6] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [3][4] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [3][4] - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Medical Services [3][4] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 12.2%, and spot prices decreased by 0.7% [3][4] - The price of silicon wafers dropped by 2.8%, while battery prices fell by 6.9% [3][4] - Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate decreased by 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively [3][4] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while iron ore prices fell by 1.7% [3][4] - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - Real estate development investment completed from January to May 2025 fell by 10.7% year-on-year [3][4] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.4%, while pork wholesale prices rose by 0.3% [3][4] - The retail sales growth rate from January to May 2025 was 5.0%, with a significant rebound in May [3][4] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 8.5% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively [3][4] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.0% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] Technology TMT - The output of integrated circuits grew by 6.8% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - The export value of optical communication modules decreased by 6.9% year-on-year [3][4] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 2.9% to $77.32 per barrel [3][4] - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 14.2% [3][4]

Group 1 - China Galaxy Securities predicts that the overall A-share market will show a震荡向上的行情特征 in the second half of the year, with current valuations at a historical medium level and lower than overseas mature markets, indicating high investment cost-effectiveness [1] - The firm emphasizes that policy support for long-term capital entering the market and the expansion of equity public funds will likely maintain a stable and improving capital environment for A-shares [1] - The focus on technology innovation as a core driver for new supply-side reforms in A-shares is highlighted, with specific attention to sectors like AI computing, AI applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities characterizes the upcoming mid-term report season as having a risk preference decline and weak fundamentals, suggesting a focus on the North American AI hardware supply chain despite recent pullbacks [2] - The firm identifies sectors with strong mid-term report performance certainty, including wind power, gaming, and rare metals, while also noting that some segments in new energy have reached reasonable valuation levels [2] - Recommendations include considering banks that continue to attract capital inflows as a relatively stable investment choice [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities advises focusing on valuation cost-effectiveness and balancing investments between technology growth and undervalued blue-chip stocks, given the positive domestic policies and liquidity conditions [3] - The firm points out that sectors like media, automotive, and power equipment have low transaction volumes and turnover rates, indicating potential for sentiment recovery [3] - Short-term focus is suggested on industries supported by policies and trends, such as new energy vehicles and financial services [3] Group 4 - Hua'an Securities maintains a positive outlook for the second half of the year on high-dividend sectors like banking and insurance, as well as industries represented by new metal materials [4] - The firm notes that while loose liquidity supports the market, slow internal growth recovery and policy considerations may limit rapid upward movement [4] - The overall A-share profit forecast indicates a trend of improvement starting from Q4 2024, which could be a significant factor for market upward breakthroughs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy for the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 is shifting from active stock selection to passive index investment, with a market preference moving towards value-oriented stocks [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The focus of institutions is increasingly on dividends and fundamentals, leading to a valuation premium based on investment returns [1] - The era of passive investment is resulting in a decrease in industry EPS requirements and an increase in the weight of free cash flow [1] - The valuation paradigm may shift from Price-to-Earnings (PE) to Enterprise Value/EBITDA or Enterprise Value/Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF) [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Traditional sectors like highways, perceived as having weak growth, have shown long-term strong performance, becoming "friends of time" [1] - The outlook for the second half of the year is more favorable for infrastructure assets and high-dividend assets due to continuous allocation of passive funds and narrowing AH discount rates [1] Group 3: Logistics Industry - The logistics sector benefits from low resource costs and technological cost reductions, with direct sales companies optimizing profits through outsourcing [1] - The resilience of cash flow will determine the evolution of the franchise-based express delivery landscape [1] Group 4: Index Overview - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company [1] - This index selects the 50 largest listed companies within the Hong Kong Stock Connect range based on free float market capitalization, covering multiple industry sectors and aiming to reflect the overall market performance of large-cap stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]