Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Tongwei Co., Ltd. plans to conduct hedging activities in 2026 to mitigate risks associated with raw material and product price fluctuations, as well as interest and exchange rate volatility [1][2][3] - On December 30, 2025, Tongwei's stock closed at 21.01 yuan, down 2.32%, with a turnover rate of 1.43% and a trading volume of 642,800 lots, amounting to a total transaction value of 1.354 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 66.7736 million yuan, accounting for 4.93% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 43.8711 million yuan, representing 3.24% of the total transaction value [1][3] Group 2 - The planned hedging activities will involve commodity, foreign exchange, and interest rate derivatives, with a maximum value of 3 billion yuan for commodity contracts, 2.4 billion USD for foreign exchange, and 400 million USD for interest rate hedging on any given day [2][3] - The funding for these hedging activities will come from the company's own funds and credit from financial institutions, and the board of directors has approved this plan without requiring shareholder meeting approval [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall valuation of the industrial silicon industry is neutral, and there are structural opportunities in the low - valuation area [3][47] - The polysilicon industry is still policy - dominated, and its development is affected by policy implementation and dynamic adjustment [5] Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the industrial silicon industry featured "costs first decreasing then increasing, stable production growth, differentiated regional开工率, and prominent over - capacity". In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with over - capacity as the core issue [1][3] - In 2025, the polysilicon industry was strongly affected by policies, showing characteristics of "ineffective pricing mechanism, production recovery in the second half of the year, and demand fluctuating with the photovoltaic industry chain". In 2026, it may show a situation of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: View Summary 1.1 Summary - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2025, costs first decreased due to lower raw material prices in the first half and then increased as coal prices rose in the second half. Production increased steadily, with开工率 showing regional and phased differences. Exports were weakly stable, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [1] - **Polysilicon**: In 2025, the pricing mechanism was ineffective. Production recovered in the second half, and demand was "high in the front and low in the back" affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave". After the anti - involution policy in June, profits rebounded, and the industry's production enthusiasm was boosted [2] 1.2 Future Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 4.3% and a demand growth rate of about 5%. Attention should be paid to cost and price changes and the risk of short - term supply - demand mismatches [3] - **Polysilicon**: In 2026, it may show a "supply increase and demand decrease" situation, with a supply growth rate of about 3.7% and a demand growth rate of about - 10%. The profit transmission in the industrial chain is the key observation point, and policy implementation should be focused on [5] Chapter 2: Market Review 2.1 2025 Industrial Silicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price declined due to weak supply - demand and pricing restructuring caused by the new delivery system. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Although there were short - term sentiment boosts, the overall supply - surplus situation remained [6] - **Second Quarter**: The price continued to decline due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, cost collapse expectations, and regional supply increases [7] - **Third and Fourth Quarters**: In the third quarter, the price rose due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, cost support, and downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, it was affected by the expected production cut in the polysilicon industry and profit - taking [7][8] 2.2 2025 Polysilicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price fluctuated widely, driven by industry expectations and chain sentiment, with price increases at the beginning and drops after the Spring Festival [10] - **Second Quarter**: The price declined due to supply - demand deterioration, with a 14% drop in April. There were short - term rebounds but then continued to fall [11] - **Third Quarter**: The price rose significantly due to the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations [11] - **Fourth Quarter**: The price fluctuated in a range with a rising center, affected by policy expectations and supply - demand in the spot market [11] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Cost**: In 2025, costs decreased in the first half and increased in the second half, mainly due to raw material price changes [13] - **Supply**: Production increased steadily due to low start - stop costs and flexible production.开工率 was supported by cost collapse in the first half and profit recovery in the second half. Xinjiang had high开工率, and the Southwest had seasonal fluctuations [18][20] - **Import and Export**: Exports were affected by policies and overseas supply, and were expected to be weakly stable in 2026, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [23] - **New Capacity in 2026**: The industry was over - capacity, and the new planned capacity was about 45 tons, mainly integrated capacity [25] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Cost**: The cost was composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other auxiliary costs, and the market - based pricing mechanism was temporarily ineffective [27] - **Supply**: In 2025, production decreased in the first half and recovered in the second half after the anti - involution policy [29] - **Terminal Demand**: In 2025, demand was affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave", showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, demand growth may be - 10% due to policy changes [31][5] - **Component Import and Export**: China's photovoltaic component exports were strong in 2025, with high volumes in the first half and a surge in the second half [33] - **Photovoltaic Power Generation**: In 2025, China's solar power generation reached 461.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 38.12%, providing key support for green - power supply [35] 3.3 Organosilicon - In 2025, the industry had high capacity, weak demand, and low开工率, with marginal improvement at the end of the year. In 2026, the supply - demand situation was uncertain [38] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the domestic aluminum alloy industry had stable production growth, with a cumulative output of about 10.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.8%. In 2026, demand for industrial silicon was expected to continue to grow [40][41] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Industrial Silicon Profit**: Since May 2025, profits have increased due to lower hydropower costs and the "anti - involution" policy. The overall valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and price changes and enterprises with cost advantages or product - structure optimization capabilities [45][47] - **Polysilicon Profit**: Since June 2025, profits have rebounded rapidly, and the current profitability is good. Attention should be paid to profit transmission in the industrial chain [49][52] 4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to be about 4.3%, and the demand growth rate is about 5%. The over - capacity situation remains, and attention should be paid to production fluctuations caused by the hydropower season change [53] - **Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply may increase by about 3.7%, and the demand may decrease by about 10%, with a slight supply - demand surplus [55]

市场分析 2025-12-29，工业硅期货价格偏弱运行，主力合约2605开于8850元/吨，最后收于8715元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-60） 元/吨，变化（-0.68）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓221065手，2025-12-28仓单总数为9907手，较前一日变化 480手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-30 价格区间震荡，去库进程缓慢 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月25日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.5万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，多晶硅周度产量基本稳定，12月多 晶硅预计排产在11.4万吨附近，环比11月微幅减少，对工业硅需求量变化有限。有机硅周度排产较上周小幅波动， 12月上旬单体厂陆 ...

工业硅：关注上游工厂减产情况 多晶硅：区间震荡，波动放大 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,715 382,415 | -165 -152,155 | 120 75,473 | -400 58,891 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 221,065 | -3,677 | -541 | -16,583 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 56,500 | -2,455 | -2,345 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 69,428 | -61,662 | -143,852 | - | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 价格快速上涨，警惕非理性风险 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-29 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 投资咨询证号：Z0023460 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅： 西北 复产小幅增加 ，下游 需求 增减不一 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产8.15 万吨，环比+1.68%；全国开炉243 台，环比+3台。 | | 供给端 | 偏空 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产5.30 万吨，环比+2.75%，开炉数环比+6。云南地区周产0.43 万吨，环比-9.32%，开炉数环比-1。四川地区周产 0.22 万吨，环比-10.20%，开炉数环比-2。 | | | | （3 ...

标准是节能工作的"硬尺度"。全国人大财政经济委员会委员庄毓敏反映，部分节能标准更新滞后，AI等 新兴产业节能标准存在空白，并提问："未来对于改进和完善节能标准体系有什么样的考虑？" "我们要加快更新升级传统行业的存量标准，开展强制性节能标准实施效果和行业节能技术潜力综合评 估。根据评估结果，加快推动像多晶硅、水泥制品等行业能耗标准和工业设备能效标准修订，争取在明 年年底实现节能领域强制性国家标准'应修尽修'。"罗文表示，还要加快研制新兴产业标准，加强数据 中心等新型基础设施，以及手机、光伏组件等产品节能标准预研，夯实数据基础，坚持急用先行，下达 一批标准研制计划，发布一批重要标准。 随着数字经济蓬勃发展，算力设施能耗快速增长成为新课题。全国人大教育科学文化卫生委员会委员孙 泽洲提问：如何加强这一新兴领域的节能管理？ 郑栅洁回应，一是加强新建项目源头把关，扎实推进"东数西算"工程，促进算力资源集聚化、规模化、 绿色化发展；二是加大存量设施改造力度，推动设备选型、制冷架构、机柜功率密度、系统智能运行策 略等优化升级。对能效低、规模小的"老旧小散"算力设施，要稳步有序地退出；三是强化余热资源回收 利用，推动高效热回 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

黑色建材日报 2025-12-29 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 合约收盘价为 3283 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 3 元/吨（0.091%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 123.239 万手，环比减少 6522 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 【策略观点】 上周五商品市场整体情绪偏好，成材价格延续底部区间内震荡。从基本面看，螺纹钢本周产量微增，表需 回落，库存水平处于五年低位；热轧卷板方面，产量持续回落，表观需求小幅走强，库存延 ...

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