本周各大券商策略分析师，对于后市指数行情，依旧保持积极乐观。 更多券商策略观点如下： | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 逻辑 | | 关注板块 | | | | 当前A股成交活跃度显著高涨,融资资金与陆 | | | | | 股通资金交易占比明显提升,股票型ETF再度 | | | | | 转向大幅净申购，部分趋势资金的被动抱团 | | | | | 与高成长板块的持续创新高产生"正反馈" | 聚焦新技术、新成长方向 (如机器人、 | | 华西策略 | "险资长线"成为本轮"慢牛"的 效应,期间难免出现结构性泡沫,这也是市 | | AI应用、固态电池、创新药等），辅之 | | 李立峰 | 稳定話 | 场预期回升的一种表现。与此同时，数据显 | 以部分大金融、新消费(如IP经济、口 | | | | 示上半年险资持有A股市值占比创下历史新 | 含烟等）。 | | | | 高，显示长线资金正在加大入市力度，有力 | | | | | 加强A股市场战略性力量和稳市机制建设,助 | | | | 力本轮行情向"慢牛"演绎。 | | | | | | 第一 ...

每周思考总第644期 《 主板上行仍将延续，但如何增强实际获得感？ 》 申明： 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新展示历史观点回溯模拟净值图。 本文表述观点，仅代表作者发稿当时的个人想法与思考笔记，仅供读者参考而不作为任何投资 建议。作者保留根据市场环境、新信息等适度修正观点的权利。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 上周市场再度大涨，沪深300指数周涨幅2.71%，上证综指周涨幅0.84%，中证500指数周涨幅 3.24%。 上周市场虽有周内震荡但仍录得周度中阳线，市值风格强弱在中证1000以下的板块有强烈分 化趋势，以上都与我们上周观点提示一致 。 基本面上，经济数据维持短期趋势。 国内方面，8月官方制造业PMI数据披露，整体相对温和， 显示中国经济仍在3月以来的出口冲击下保持相对低位运行中，也再次证明了8月市场的火热与国内短 期基本面关联有限；海外方面，美国地产销售、就业数据继续披露更新，整体同样维持低位徘徊；国 内外整体基本面数据本周相对平稳。 技术面上，机构资金保持活跃。 上周资金面继续支撑A股上行，但大小市值分化进一步加大，资 金结构方面也出现了相应变化，机构资金保持活跃而游资短期有所退坡，市场 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国物价指数情况 【市场资讯】1）中共中央、国务院：发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市圈，持续 推动城镇老旧小区改造。2）美国二季度实际 GDP 年化季环比上调至 3.3%，商业投资提振。 美国上周首申失业金人数小幅下降至 22.9 万，续请人数降至 195.4 万，均低于预期。3） 美联储主席大热人选沃勒：支持 9 月降息 25 基点，未来三到六个月继续降。4）美联储理 事库克就免职起诉，暗示房贷源于文书错误，警告免职会让美国经济有风险。5）欧盟推动 欧美协议落地，立法提案取消部分对美关税，推动汽车关税降至 15%。日本经济再生大臣 访美关税磋商行程取消。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，商务部表示 9 月将出台多项扩大服务消费的政策措施。我们此前 已分析指出，当前支撑消费的以旧换新相关商品增速正逐步回落，后续服务消费有望成为 政策重点发力的领域，需重点关注后续政策的力度及支持范围。随着服务消费相关政策的 逐步落地，消费增速有望获得边际支撑。此外，工业企业利润同比仍为负增长，尽管降幅 小幅收窄，但国内经济的整体矛盾尚未发生根本性改变。海外市场方面，美国二季度实际 GDP 数据及上周首次申请 ...

2025 年 08 月 28 日 A 股大牛市：波动与应对 回顾历史上 A 股的大牛市，尽管成因、持续时间和涨幅存在较大差异，但 每轮牛市都会经历两轮比较明显的波动，期间大盘指数震荡调整，平均持 续 20-40 个交易日（均值 33 个交易日），期间回撤在 10%-20%之间（均 值 14%）。而这些牛市中的调整大多数时候与资金面、情绪面相关，而和基 本面关联性不大，尤其是对于市场过热、监管收紧、外围风险的担忧会暂 时打断牛市进程。对于波动调整期间的市场特征，如果是基本面驱动牛市， 风格切换并不显著，市场交易主线依旧清晰；而流动性驱动牛市，在震荡 调整区间往往有剧烈的风格切换，例如大盘切换至小盘，价值切换至成长 等等。 具体而言，牛市中的波动根据牛市自身特征，可分为四种类型： 第一类是制度红利+盈利驱动牛（2005–2007），股改、汇改与宏观繁荣带 来"戴维斯双击"，波动主要来自对泡沫和货币收紧的担忧，拐点常见于政 策转向或市场估值过热时，风格先从大盘价值转向中小盘成长，后在"530 股灾"后切换至再次大盘权重和防御板块，这一类型的波动行情往往兼具基 本面支撑以及估值拔升（制度红利），市场风格的切换是大小盘 ...

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]

Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips [1] - Treasury Bonds: Hold and wait [1] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Weakening with oscillations [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Recommend holding a moderate long position at low levels [1] - Aluminum: Recommend buying on dips after a pullback [1] - Nickel: Recommend waiting or shorting on rallies [1] - Tin: Range trading [1] - Gold: Range trading [1] - Silver: Range trading [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Oscillating [1] - Soda Ash: Short 01 contract and long 05 contract for arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Oscillating [1] - Styrene: Oscillating [1] - Rubber: Oscillating [1] - Urea: Oscillating [1] - Methanol: Oscillating [1] - Polyolefins: Wide - range oscillations [1] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillating [1] - Apples: Oscillating [1] - Jujubes: Oscillating [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Short on rallies [1] - Eggs: Short on rallies [1] - Corn: Wide - range oscillations [1] - Soybean Meal: Range oscillations [1] - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and gives corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Industry Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate. Coal prices continue to decline, with production gradually resuming after rainfall. Downstream is cautious, and it is recommended to trade within the range, with JM2601 focusing on [1110 - 1250] and J2601 on [1610 - 1780] [5] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. Futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamental data shows changes in demand, production, and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range, with RB2510 focusing on [3100 - 3200] [5] - **Glass**: Near - month contracts may decline slightly, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view. The main 01 contract is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 1150 - 1200 range breakthrough. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices [6] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. Positive news from the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies boost copper prices. Although there are some constraints in the short - term supply and demand, there is potential for price increases in the future. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels, with the short - term operating range at 79500 - 81000 yuan/ton [8][9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of bauxite is supported, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. With the arrival of the demand peak season and marginal improvement in inventory, it is recommended to buy on dips [8][9][10] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [12] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the reference range of the SHFE Tin 09 contract at 25.9 - 27.6 million yuan/ton [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Expected to oscillate. Powell's dovish speech and other factors support precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips after a price correction, with the reference range of the SHFE Silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and the SHFE Gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. High inventory, uncertain export sustainability, and large upstream production pressure lead to a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5100 level pressure on the 01 contract [15][16][17] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate. Spot price increases slow down, and there is a short - term correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 level support on the 01 contract [17][18] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 7300 level pressure [19][20] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. New rubber supply is slow, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15400 - 16500 range [20][21] - **Urea**: Expected to be neutral. Supply is increasing, demand is scattered, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level at 1680 - 1720 [22] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, demand has some positive factors, but port inventory is accumulating rapidly [23] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate. The cost of coal - based olefins provides strong support, supply and demand show different trends for polyethylene and polypropylene, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - 7500 range for L2601 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2601 [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and there is a large inventory pressure in the short term, while the far - month contract may be relatively strong [26][27][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to prepare for hedging [29] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the inventory of Fuji apples is stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation based on low inventory and growth factors [30] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate. The growth of jujubes is in the expansion period, and it is expected that the price will oscillate upward in the near future [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: Overall under pressure. There is a short - term expectation of price increases at the end of the month, but the supply is large in the medium to long term. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on 11 and 01 contracts and wait for rallies to add short positions, and also pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [32][33][34] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The current supply is sufficient, and the long - term high supply situation may be difficult to reverse. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the main 10 contract or hold put options, and take a bearish view on the 12 and 01 contracts [34] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The supply is sufficient in the short term, and new corn production is expected to be good. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the 11 contract and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to have limited upside. Domestic arrivals are abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure, but there is support at the bottom. It is expected to trade within the [3030, 3130] range in the short term [35][38] - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are mixed. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the support and pressure levels for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil as mentioned, and also pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage strategy [39][40][41][42][43][44][45]

2025 年 8 月 28 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 重点交流 【海外 TMT】精密线缆解决方案商，立讯控股赋能"数据中心+汽车"业务发展—— 汇聚科技（1729.HK）首次覆盖报告(买入) 汇聚科技是定制电线互连方案供应商，立讯精密是控股股东。基于：1）AI 算力维持 景气度，公司数据中心电线组件、特种线缆、服务器 ODM 业务收入持续高速增长； 2）汽车智能化趋势推动汽车线缆需求高速增长，Leoni K 与公司汽车线束相关业务 有望持续发挥渠道、技术等协同效应。我们认为公司具备一定的标的稀缺性和溢价空 间，首次覆盖，给予汇聚科技"买入"评级。 总量研究 【宏观】"反内卷"推动制造业盈利好转——2025 年 7 月工业企业盈利数据点评 7 月受利润率改善推动，工业企业利润同比降幅继续收窄。结构上，原材料行业利润 同比增速大幅反弹，主要受益于"反内卷"政策推动原材料价格上涨。当前随着"反 内卷"政策逐步落地，对于投资端调控、治理低价无序竞争的效果陆续显现，制造业 利润率迎来好转，未来随着市场供需关系的逐步调节，企业将陆续摆脱"以价换量" 局面，企业盈利也将迎来曙光。 行业研究 【建筑】周观点：上海发布楼市新政 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhengzhou Municipal Government has issued a work plan to implement a dual control system for carbon emissions, aiming to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals while promoting green transformation of development methods [1] Group 1: Overall Requirements and Key Tasks - The plan outlines differentiated control measures during different phases, focusing on intensity control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and total control post-carbon peak [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period will emphasize establishing a comprehensive carbon emission statistical accounting system and enhancing management levels in key energy-consuming and carbon-emitting sectors [1][2] - Post-carbon peak, the focus will shift to total control, reinforcing management measures towards carbon neutrality and implementing product carbon footprint management systems [1] Group 2: Institutional Planning - The plan includes ten key tasks, such as improving carbon emission planning systems, establishing carbon emission target decomposition and budget management systems, and developing a digital intelligent carbon control system [2] - Carbon emission indicators will be integrated into the city's economic and social development plans, with intensity reduction targets replacing energy consumption intensity constraints during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] Group 3: Statistical Accounting and Target Management - The plan aims to enhance the timeliness and quality of carbon emission data through annual and quick reporting systems, and by compiling energy balance sheets [3] - It will focus on key industries such as electricity, steel, and construction, establishing monitoring and early warning mechanisms for carbon emissions [3] Group 4: Digital Carbon Management - Zhengzhou will develop a digital carbon management platform, creating a dynamic accounting model library and promoting various carbon management scenarios [4] - The initiative encourages enterprises and parks to establish digital carbon management centers, aiming for a comprehensive digital governance system for carbon emissions [4]

与之形成鲜明对比的是，高科技制造、电子设备、生物医药和工业机器人等领域用电增速均突破10%。 经济动能的切换已清晰可见：电表刻度背后，是无法伪装的经济真相。 铁路货运量连续六个月正增长，七月货运规模达4.52亿吨，同比提升4.5%。货物的流动往往是经济活力的早期信号。 同期，本外币贷款余额维持在272万亿元以上，同比增长6.7%。融资意愿的保持，本身就是对经济预期的隐性投票。 这些信号共同指向一个比流行叙事更稳健的经济现实。忽略它们，很可能误判全局。 国际市场同样迎来关键窗口。美联储将于9月16日至17日举行议息会议，结果预计于北京时间18日凌晨公布。 倘若风向真的转变，你手中的筹码又是否足够入场？ 不妨暂时收起直觉，用事实与推演来接近答案。 七月全社会用电量站上1.02万亿千瓦时，同比增长8.6%。这并非只是盛夏空调的耗电结果，更暗示经济正在发生结构性变迁。 工业用电占比接近六成，而传统高耗能板块——化工、钢铁、有色、建材——用电量集体下行。 目前市场广泛预期降息25个基点——这一幅度既维系了政策威信，也回应了政治诉求，堪称一场精心策划的妥协。 若美元利率进入下行通道，全球资金成本压力将缓解，中国货币政策的 ...

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者冰姐 教你挖掘基 . 当K线图持续飘红、当账户数字跳跃攀升，空气中总是弥漫着一种名为"这次不一样"的兴奋感。 作为一名入市十多年的前股民、现基民，笔者谈不上有多深的领悟，但也实实在在地摸爬滚打了几轮牛熊。 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 近来的市场中，关于 "牛市" 的讨论声浪正快速升温。 这两个字仿佛天生带着魔力，一旦出现，便能瞬间让财富增长的梦想在无数人心中翻腾。 近日市场暖意渐浓，让笔者不禁开始搜寻起了记忆中牛市的剪影。 倘若当下的行情延续，我们应该如何从容应对？与其急着下结论，不如先转身回望历史。 01 三轮牛市的记忆切片 —— 从狂热到清醒的周期启示 2007年全民牛：繁荣泡沫中的投资第一课 | | | | | | | 2005-2007: 股改汇改带来的新周期与价值行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2005-2007 | 起点 | 终点 | 节奏 | 万祥全A漂跌 幅(%) | 交易日 (天) ...