有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/25 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/02/10 -125 5778 248911 165939 -1117.87 -150.93 38.0 44.0 -76.10 189100 19475 2026/02/11 -150 5458 248911 178897 -922.94 -193.44 34.0 37.0 -76.01 192100 22450 2026/02/12 -170 5832 248911 187179 -823.81 -312.99 34.0 37.0 -94.71 196650 21650 2026/02/13 -110 5473 272475 196680 -565.83 205.31 33.0 35.0 -106.43 203875 9825 2026/02/24 270 5489 272475 277089 - 302.12 53.0 49.0 - 243175 10 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-25 基本金属震荡整理，关注下游消费恢复 进展 有⾊观点：基本⾦属震荡整理，关注下游消费恢复进展 交易逻辑：据汇通财经网数据，近期美国公布的经济数据偏弱，美联储降 息预期有所升温，尽管关税政策再度出现反复，但考虑到当下美联储降息 预期也在摇摆，估计短期可能还是会对基本金属构成一定压制。原料端延 续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，现 实供需偏宽松，但中期供需收紧预期仍在，密切跟踪下游消费恢复进展。 整体来看，短期基本金属偏震荡，中期美联储独立性风险和供应扰动担忧 仍在，铜铝锡镍等品种有望维持震荡偏强走势。 铜观点：特朗普关税被否，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：减产预期博弈过剩现实，氧化铝价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：库存累积明显，铝价震荡运⾏。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，价格震荡运⾏。 锌观点：美国关税政策反复，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：伦铅库存⼤幅累积，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：印尼26年镍矿配额落地，镍价偏强运⾏。 不锈钢观点：镍价震荡⾛⾼，不锈钢盘⾯上⾏。 锡观点：暂⽆明显驱动，锡价震荡运⾏。 ⻛险 ...

Group 1 - Company Shenhuo Co., Ltd. announced that its 26th meeting of the 9th board of directors was held via communication on February 24, 2026, to review the proposal for the re-election of a non-independent director [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, marking the fourth anniversary with significant casualties reported at 1.8 million [1] - The conflict is described as being in a deadlock regarding negotiations, battlefield conditions, and economic challenges [1]

白银有色公告，近日，白银有色集团股份有限公司及下属白银有色铁路运输 物流有限责任公司获得白 银市商务局下发的2025年中央外经贸提质增效项目补助9,000,000元。其中，公司获得政府补助756.88万 元，铁运公司获得政府补助143.12万元。该政府补助与收益相关，占公司最近一期经审计归母净利润的 比例为11.14%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The current global consumption of copper is strong, and there is significant rigid demand support. The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, and in the short - to - medium term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on whether precious metals stabilize. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1] - **Aluminum**: After the sharp correction of the aluminum market, wait for the supply - demand negative factors to materialize and then go long. If the Iranian situation deteriorates, it may cause aluminum prices to rise [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation elasticity. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [4] - **Nickel**: The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. The short - term market is dominated by the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector, affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [7] - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term market is dominated by the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector, with continuous disturbances from Indonesian quota news [11] - **Lead**: The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15] - **Tin**: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly observe. In the long - term, if there is a macro turning point, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of the year [17] - **Industrial Silicon**: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the fundamentals are strong, and there is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage in the positive direction if the intermediate inventory further decreases to a low level [23] 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from - 120 to - 110, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 359, the SHFE copper inventory increased by 23,564 tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 7,225 tons [1] - **Analysis**: The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, causing concerns about inventory delivery to the LME. However, global copper consumption is strong, and there is rigid demand support. The industrial end still provides support [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 190 yuan/ton, and the SHFE aluminum social inventory increased by 52,200 tons [1] - **Analysis**: The aluminum market corrected sharply, with weak demand. The supply side had unexpected increases, and it is advisable to go long after the supply - demand negative factors are realized. The deterioration of the Iranian situation may push up aluminum prices [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140 yuan/ton, the SHFE zinc exchange inventory increased by 16,336 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons [1][2][3] - **Analysis**: On the supply side, domestic and imported TC is accelerating downward. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [4] Nickel - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the SHFE nickel spot price decreased by 5,250 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 702 tons [7] - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, demand was weak, and the short - term fundamentals were weak. The market is affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and overall non - ferrous sentiment [7] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, 201 cold - rolled coils, 430 cold - rolled coils, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [11] - **Analysis**: Steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month, demand entered the off - season, and the fundamentals remained weak. The market is affected by Indonesian quota news and overall non - ferrous sentiment [11] Lead - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the social inventory increased by 8,715 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 250 tons [14][15] - **Analysis**: On the supply side, production decreased seasonally. On the demand side, battery production decreased, and inventory accumulated. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15] Tin - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the tin spot import profit increased by 7,169.71, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons [16][17] - **Analysis**: The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side has different views on restocking. In the short term, it is recommended to observe, and in the long - term, there may be a large downward fluctuation [17] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 456 [21] - **Analysis**: Production in the southwest region decreased, and a large factory in Xinjiang cut production. In the short term, supply and demand are close to balance, and in the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,250 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,477 [23] - **Analysis**: In the short term, the fundamentals are strong, with upstream maintenance exceeding expectations and downstream maintenance falling short of expectations. There is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage in the positive direction if the intermediate inventory further decreases [23]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to continued tight copper ore supply, relatively surplus refined copper supply under high domestic smelting start - up rate and downstream consumption off - season, and emotional support from strong precious metal prices [4][5] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short - term despite large inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and high delivery pressure on near - month futures contracts, as LME inventory remains at a relatively low level and there are still supports from the industry [6][7] - Lead prices may be supported in the short - term by the expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [9][10] - Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices based on relative valuation in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances, but will likely return to the weak industrial reality after the macro disturbances subside [11][12][13] - Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation in the short - term, with a long - term upward trend, but there is pressure for a sharp rise under the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory [14][15] - Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising, with a long - term bullish and short - term bearish outlook [16][17] - The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue, and the upstream may have more say in the post - holiday spot game [20][21] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the future price trend depends on whether the disturbances in the Guinea ore end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated [23][24] - Stainless steel prices are still bullish, with a strong cost support at the bottom and the supply pressure expected to ease after the holiday [26][27] - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term due to cost support, improved demand expectations after the holiday, and supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29][30] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, the US Supreme Court ruled that US tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, but new tariffs added uncertainty. Precious metal prices rebounded, and copper prices fluctuated. As of February 23, LME 3M copper rose slightly by 0.05% to $12,901/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. Overseas copper inventories continued to increase, and the discount of LME near - month contracts narrowed. Satellite data showed that global smelting activities in January were at the lowest level for the same period in a decade. Domestically, the operating rate of primary processing enterprises weakened before the holiday, and inventories increased seasonally but less than the seasonal average [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract today is 99,500 - 101,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,050/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, geopolitical risks from US - Iran negotiations remained. The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff on global goods. Aluminum prices fluctuated and recovered. As of February 23, LME 3M aluminum rose 0.9% to $3,091/ton. Before the holiday, domestic aluminum futures positions decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 47.4 tons, and the discount of Cash/3M narrowed [6] - **Strategy**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to rise. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract today is 23,000 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is $3,050 - 3,120/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE lead index fell 1.39% to 16,700 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M lead fell 0.51% to $1,966.5/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 5.42 tons to 28.71 tons. Domestic lead inventory also increased [9] - **Strategy**: The expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support lead prices in the short - term, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE zinc index fell 5.53% to 24,255 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M zinc rose 0.76% to $3,378/ton. LME zinc inventory was 10.17 tons, and domestic zinc inventory increased [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances but will return to the weak industrial reality later [12][13] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 13, tin prices fell sharply. The supply was difficult to increase significantly in the short - term due to the high - level stability of the operating rate in Yunnan and low production in Jiangxi. The demand was still weak as downstream enterprises were cautious [14] - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME tin is $46,000 - 50,000/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 13, nickel prices fell sharply. The spot market premiums were stable, and raw material prices were also stable. During the Spring Festival, LME 3M nickel rose 1.1% to $17,435/ton, and LME inventory was basically unchanged [16] - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising. It is recommended to buy low and sell high. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M nickel is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On February 14, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 5.11% week - on - week. The LC2605 contract price rose 2.15% on February 13, and the Australian import SC6 lithium concentrate price rose 2.82% week - on - week [20] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue. The reference range for the main contract on the GZFE is 139,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 13, the alumina index rose 1.1% to 2,843 yuan/ton. The trading position decreased, and the basis and overseas prices were stable. The futures inventory increased [23] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On February 13, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.79% to 13,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices were stable, raw material prices were unchanged, and futures and social inventories increased [26] - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices are still bullish. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton [27] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the casting aluminum alloy price weakened. The trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The inventory increased [29] - **Strategy**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Hongqiao (01378) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 4% amid improving demand for electrolytic aluminum and strong supply constraints [1] - According to Guangfa Securities, the upward elasticity of aluminum prices should not be overlooked, especially with the anticipated demand recovery [1] - As of March 2025, China Hongqiao is expected to have an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.459 million tons, maintaining stable production and sales while reducing costs [1] Group 2 - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.74 billion yuan in 2026, assuming an aluminum price of 23,000 yuan per ton [1] - The annual cash dividend payout ratios for the company from 2022 to 2024 are forecasted to be 49%, 48%, and 64% respectively, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [1] - If the high dividend payout ratio continues, the expected dividend yield based on the market capitalization as of February 9 could reach 6.7% [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡回落，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，昨晚华尔街见闻报 | | | 道，俄政府一份备忘录指出俄将重返美元结算体系，以得到特朗普政府更多支持。这一 | | | 潜在改变成为当下地缘政治可能出现重大转变的一个点。另外，昨晚美股大跌也引发了 | | 铜 | 市场流动性的重新担忧。铜价近期走势与海外金融市场和贵金属表现有一定趋同性，这 | | | 表明当前运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。策略上， | | | 建议维持逢低买入思路，但春节假期即将到来，节日期间外盘地缘扰动仍然较强，建议 | | | 轻仓过节。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2811 元/吨，跌幅 0.46%，持仓减仓 11147 手 | | | 至 28.6 万手。隔夜沪铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AL2603 收于 23395 元/吨，跌幅 0.91%，持仓减 | | | 仓 881 手至 15.9 万手。铝合金震荡偏弱，隔夜主力 AD2604 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the precious metals market has a negative impact on the overall market, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide some support. The copper market shows a tight supply of copper ore and a relatively sufficient supply of refined copper, with copper prices expected to remain range - bound at high levels during the holiday. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate with an upward bias due to stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals. The lead market is currently in a weak state, and whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival. The zinc industry is also weak, but zinc prices may rise following the non - ferrous metal sector due to positive macro - economic expectations. Tin prices are expected to trade in a wide range, and short - term operations are recommended to wait and see. Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain tight in the short term, and upstream producers may have more bargaining power. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed, and the key lies in the impact of disruptions in Guinea's mining and the alleviation of high domestic supply pressure. Stainless steel maintains a strategy of buying on dips. Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [5][8][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28] Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight silver and US stocks declined, causing copper prices to rise first and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 2.9% at $12,855/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,550 tons to 196,650 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased slightly. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to futures, and the import of SHFE copper was at a loss of over 900 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,100 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The decline in precious metals dampens market sentiment, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide support. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the supply of refined copper is relatively sufficient. During the long holiday, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound at high levels. Today, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $12,500 - 13,200/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum smelter in Mozambique is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Precious metals and US stocks declined, causing aluminum prices to rise first and then fall. LME aluminum closed down 0.63% at $3,097/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 647,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 33,000 to 201,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories increased, the processing fee for aluminum bars continued to rebound, and the market entered a holiday state. The spot in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to futures, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,200 tons to 484,000 tons [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. LME aluminum inventories remain at a relatively low level, and the high premium of US aluminum in the spot market provides strong support for aluminum prices. With stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias during the long holiday. Today, the reference range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 23,200 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $3,050 - 3,140/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed 0.29% lower at 16,705 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 120,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME lead 3S rose $8 to $1,986/ton, with a total open interest of 175,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,000 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 233,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 16,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,400 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from February 9 [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years. The processing fee for lead concentrates remains at a low level. The inventory of waste batteries continues to rise, higher than in 2025. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of smelters declines seasonally. Lead ingot social inventories continue to accumulate, and the domestic industry is currently in a weak state. Current lead prices are close to the lower end of the long - term trading range, but downstream consumption is mediocre. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed 0.18% higher at 24,678 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 193,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,424.5/ton, with a total open interest of 235,500 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,480 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,300 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 138,100 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from February 9 [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory has slowed down, and the TC of zinc concentrates has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate. The operating performance of downstream enterprises is mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises have increased rapidly. The domestic zinc industry is in a weak state. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - economic sentiment. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there is still a risk of abnormal price movements in non - ferrous metals during the holiday. The strong US PMI has boosted market expectations of a recovery in consumption, which may drive zinc prices to rise following the non - ferrous metal sector [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 12, tin prices fluctuated. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 391,320 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, the upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions resumed from maintenance, and there were constraints on the scrap side and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply is difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot trading has improved slightly, the overall price is still at a high level, and downstream restocking willingness before the festival is still not obvious, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on end - user industries from the overall rise in the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand is slow, and the actual support for the spot market is limited [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound accordingly. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term, in the short term, with the marginal easing of tin ingot supply - demand and the steady increase in inventory recently, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly trade in a wide range. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $46,000 - 50,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 12, nickel prices fluctuated. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron averaged 1,048 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals and risk - asset prices, there are signs of stabilization, with short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and short - term nickel prices are expected to mainly trade in a wide range. On the evening of February 10, Tri Winarno, the Director - General of Minerals and Coal at the ESDM Ministry, revealed that the approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons, which is close to market expectations and is expected to have a limited impact on nickel prices. The reference trading range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contracts, it is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 142,316 yuan in the evening session, up 2.30% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,200 yuan (+2.29%) to 138,800 - 146,700 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.31%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 149,420 yuan, down 0.56% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. The SMM weekly inventory was 102,932 tons, down 2,531 tons (-2.4%) from the previous week, with a decrease of 1,436 tons in the upstream and 1,095 tons in the downstream and other sectors [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On Thursday, the futures market adjusted, and the Wenhua Commodity Index fell 0.22%. On the supply side, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased by about 10.7% from the peak. On the demand side, the demand expectation is strong, and the production schedule of the material sector in March is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the short - term supply - demand tightness of domestic lithium carbonate will continue. If there is no unexpected supply recovery in the mining sector, upstream producers will have more bargaining power in the post - holiday spot market. In the future, attention should be paid to the atmosphere in the commodity market, the resumption progress of lithium mines in Jiangxi, and the changes in the tradable inventory of salt plants and traders. Today, the reference trading range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 0.29% to 2,812 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 441,800 lots, a decrease of 16,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 253 yuan/ton to the main contract [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the mining end, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea have launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area for Guinea's bauxite. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike will expand. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity situation at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there have been more capacity maintenance recently, the overall output is still at a high level. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in whether the disturbances at the Guinea mining end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated through policies or market means. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply - reduction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,970 yuan/ton, down 1.24% (-174) from the previous day, with an open interest of 198,500 lots, a decrease of 6,938 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market remained at 14,150 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 240 (-300), and the Wuxi basis was - 90 (-300). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 was 7,750 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - carbon ferrochrome price in the northern main - producing area was 8,550 yuan/50 - base ton, also unchanged. The futures inventory was 55,253 tons, an increase of 762 tons from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a 1.07% increase from the previous period, with the 300 - series inventory at 632,000 tons, a 2.49% increase [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, although the supply of raw materials has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents has generally slowed down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively sell goods, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with weak willingness to actively stock up. Steel mills will cut production collectively in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. The reference range for the main contract is 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The main AD2604 contract closed 0.25% higher at 22,260 yuan/ton (as of 15:00). The weighted contract positions decreased to 23,400 lots, and the trading volume was 11,200 lots, with increased trading volume. Warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 66,600 tons. The price difference between the AL2604 and AD2604 contracts was 1,430 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to the previous period. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 remained stable, and the

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