1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper in the medium - term, despite recent price declines due to inventory pressure and potential geopolitical conflicts. Copper is considered a metal with increasing demand and limited supply [1]. - Aluminum prices may rise in the short - term due to production disruptions in the Middle East. There is still a driving force for the long - short spread between the domestic and foreign markets [1]. - Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, although the domestic fundamentals are average, due to limited long - term capital investment and supply disruptions from Iran [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, influenced by bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [4]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and trade in a range, with a weak fundamental situation and supply - side policy interventions [8]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit support [11]. - Tin prices are highly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward potential; if liquidity tightens, tin prices may be suppressed [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and bottom - oscillate in the long - term due to over - capacity [17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a tight balance in March, with potential inventory accumulation in May and June. The upward breakthrough requires futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disruptions, while the downward breakthrough requires a collapse in demand or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. LME inventory expectations are high, and the North American delivery action is ongoing. The domestic refined - scrap copper spread has narrowed, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper by scrap copper has increased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream demand has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, but the recovery of domestic recycled copper processing enterprises is slower than in previous years. The supply of scrap copper is tight, which may promote the further reduction of refined copper inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices may rise in the short - term due to production disruptions in the Middle East. The overseas supply is tightened, and the external market is stronger than the domestic market. The domestic bonded area inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of aluminum plants in Qatar and Bahrain has been affected. The supply in the Middle East is disrupted, and the external supply is tightened [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices have slightly declined. The domestic inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be tight in the medium - term. The import window has not opened. The downstream demand has gradually recovered after the Lantern Festival, but the orders are weak [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices have fluctuated. The domestic inventory has continued to increase, and the LME inventory has slightly increased [3][4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel in February decreased. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply of nickel mines is expected to be tight throughout the year due to policy interventions in Indonesia [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices have remained stable. The inventory has seasonally increased this week [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill production has slightly decreased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost of nickel iron has slightly increased, and the cost of chrome iron has remained stable [8]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices have maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic inventory has increased [10][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of primary lead has recovered, and the production of recycled lead is expected to resume in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak [10][11]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices have significantly declined this week. The domestic inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has fluctuated [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin in Wabang is expected to accelerate in the second quarter. The domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend, but the production of tin ingots in March may be reduced more than expected. The demand for replenishment is strong after the price decline [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs. The inventory has not changed significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some large factories have resumed production. The supply and demand are close to a balanced state. In the long - term, the over - capacity is still high [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices have increased. The inventory has slightly increased [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in May and June [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Copper: Yesterday's copper price bottomed out and stabilized. In the long - term, the copper price is expected to rise due to the tight supply of copper mines and the increasing demand for grid upgrades. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [1]. - Tin: After the market panic dissipated, the overnight tin price recovered. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [3]. - Zinc: The zinc fundamentals are generally good. The price downside may be limited, but the upside may be restricted if downstream production recovery in the peak season is less than expected [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures price may be supported at the cost level. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of production and sales and cost fluctuations, with cautious operation [7]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to wait and see for now. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, with attention to position control and stop - loss setting [8]. - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main contract referring to the range of 134000 - 142000 [9]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main contract referring to the range of 14000 - 14500 [11]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with a long - term bullish logic. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to operate in the range of 24000 - 26000 yuan/ton [13]. - Aluminum Alloy: The aluminum - alloy market will continue to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22500 - 24500 yuan/ton [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely around the macro - expectations in the short - term, with the main contract referring to the range of 155,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped 1.47% to 99480 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount increased by 25 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [1]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped 4.79% to 377950 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 20.66% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.81% [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24360 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2835 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99% [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, and the main contract price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8670 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production in February was 27.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.58% [7]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 0.2% to 48900 yuan/kg, and the main contract price increased by 3.86% to 42700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61% [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped 1.14% to 138900 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 7.41% [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, China's refined nickel production was 32550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.59% [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.35% to 14400 yuan/ton, and the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) increased by 5.41% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 133.99 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.89% [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 3.07% to 24450 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum import loss was - 1295.3 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 346.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.91% [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 2.04% to 25000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 0.32% to 154750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 593.41% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated higher, with a slight loss in the spot import of refined copper in China. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict initially led to a sharp rise in oil prices and a fall in global risk assets, but later, due to the G7's expectation to stabilize oil prices and Trump's statement, market panic subsided, and copper prices rebounded. However, there is still great uncertainty in the market's recovery due to the recurrence of the US - Iran conflict and the fundamental pressure of unexpected inventory accumulation. It is advisable to take a cautious view of the later market and adopt a strategy of "buying in batches and allocating at low prices" [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the supply of alumina raw materials was blocked, and Iranian aluminum plants reduced production preventively. After the festival, northern manufacturers reduced production to cope with losses, and electrolytic aluminum plants made seasonal stockpiling. The increase in bauxite freight supported the cost of alumina, and the slight decrease in inventory led to a low - level recovery of alumina. The supply shock expectation and overseas low - inventory pressure of electrolytic aluminum conflicted with the weak domestic high - inventory reality. The geopolitical conflict is the current core focus, and the short - term trend of aluminum prices depends on the development of the conflict [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.11%, while Shanghai nickel rose 1.37%. Four nickel plants in Indonesia temporarily stopped production due to a fatal landslide. Although the price of nickel ore is rising strongly, the weekly social inventory of primary nickel has increased significantly, showing great pressure. Considering the tightening of the nickel ore quota in Indonesia, the cost is rising, and there may be short - term long - making opportunities based on the cost line, but there is also an expectation of supplementary quotas in July [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Macro aspect: The US - Iran conflict affected the market, but later the panic subsided. Inventory: LME inventory increased by 9,925 tons to 294,250 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1,360 tons to 541,085 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,599 tons to 319,087 tons, and BC copper decreased by 624 tons to 13,630 tons. Demand: Downstream orders recovered, and the purchasing sentiment increased. Strategy: Be cautious about the later market and adopt a "buy in batches and allocate at low prices" strategy [1]. Aluminum - Price: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly overnight. Inventory: The inventory of alumina decreased slightly, and the supply shock of electrolytic aluminum coexisted with high domestic inventory. Factor: The geopolitical conflict is the main factor affecting short - term aluminum prices [1][2]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel fell, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 132 tons to 287,418 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 329 tons to 53,897 tons. Event: Four nickel plants in Indonesia temporarily stopped production due to a landslide. Strategy: There may be short - term long - making opportunities based on the cost line, but be aware of the inventory pressure and the expectation of supplementary quotas [3]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market price: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,480 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper increased by 30 yuan/ton. Inventory: The total social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 17,000 tons [5]. Aluminum - Market price: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Inventory: The total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 15,000 tons, and the inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons [6]. Zinc - Market price: The main settlement price increased by 0.2%, and the spot price increased. Inventory: The social inventory increased by 4,700 tons [8]. Tin - Market price: The main settlement price decreased by 2.3%, and the spot price decreased by 19,000 yuan/ton. Inventory: The SHFE inventory decreased by 590 tons [8]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2026, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [10][16][22][28][34][41].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The policy tone of the government work report is steady and positive. Although the annual economic target is lowered to 4.5%-5.0%, the more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy remain unchanged. There will still be structural highlights in the economy. The demand for metal materials in relevant fields will be boosted, while the supply of some varieties will be relatively limited [3][6] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - The government's support for "two major" and "two new" work will continue to support copper demand in industries, as well as in durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances. However, with the decrease in financial support (250 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are planned this year, lower than last year's 300 billion yuan), the growth of copper demand for related products will slow down. The cultivation and expansion of emerging and future industries will benefit the demand for copper foils, copper strips, and cables in fields such as integrated circuits, future energy, embodied intelligence, and 6G. The development of the intelligent new economy and the construction of new infrastructure projects are expected to make data centers a new growth point for domestic copper demand, and the demand for copper in green power will also be supported. In the "dual carbon" field, the demand for copper in power grids and supporting energy storage is expected to grow rapidly [7] Aluminum - The moderately loose monetary policy and the effort to stabilize the real estate market are expected to gradually stabilize the domestic real estate market, narrowing the decline in aluminum demand in the real estate sector (accounting for over 20% of total aluminum demand). The construction of a new power system and the growth of State Grid's fixed - asset investment will drive the demand for aluminum in UHV and new energy storage. The implementation of the carbon emission control system may increase the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum. Given that domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling and the Middle East conflict is disrupting global supply, aluminum prices may benefit [8] Alumina - The two - sessions policy will promote the green transformation of the alumina supply side and the upgrade of the demand side to high - value - added products, aiming to transform the industry from "quantity" to "quality". On the supply side, environmental protection policies will accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity. On the demand side, policies will guide the downstream consumption structure to upgrade to high - end alumina in high - tech fields such as new energy and semiconductors, with limited impact on traditional fields [9] Zinc - The construction of a modern industrial system will boost zinc demand in galvanizing and die - casting zinc alloy fields. The development of a green and low - carbon economy will promote the transformation of the zinc smelting industry, and the clearance of high - energy - consuming and backward production capacity may ease the short - term surplus pressure of domestic zinc ingots. The future trend of zinc prices depends on whether policy stimulus can lead to a rapid recovery of downstream demand [10][11][13] Lead - The emphasis on environmental protection and resource recycling will standardize the lead industry. Policies on the cross - provincial transfer of waste lead - acid batteries and the closed - loop recycling system may ease the shortage of raw materials. In the short term, lead supply may tighten, strengthening price support. In the long term, the industry will achieve a balance between the primary and recycled lead sectors [14] Tin - The focus on emerging industries at the two - sessions provides strong support for the core demand of tin in electronic solders. On the supply side, the limited domestic tin resources and strict environmental protection constraints limit the growth of primary tin production capacity, and the recycled tin industry cannot make up for the gap in the short term. On the demand side, the expansion of new industries boosts the demand for high - end solders, and the strategic reserve of rare metals enhances the strategic value of tin. The supply - demand imbalance of tin will continue [15] Nickel - The policies support the development of new energy and green - low - carbon industries, improving the demand for nickel. On the supply side, policies promote domestic nickel exploration and the efficient use of recycled nickel, while restricting the release of new smelting capacity. On the demand side, policies drive the demand for nickel in new energy vehicles, energy storage, and stainless steel. The over - supply situation of the nickel market is expected to converge [16] Lithium Carbonate - The government work report emphasizes the development of future energy and the carbon emission control system, making the lithium - battery industry a key support for energy storage and transportation electrification. In the energy storage field, the carbon emission control system and the national low - carbon transformation fund will drive the growth of lithium - battery energy storage. In the transportation field, the substitution of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles has a large potential. The lithium - battery industry will have more development opportunities [17] Stainless Steel - The real - estate policy focuses on the utilization of existing assets, with limited impact on new construction projects. However, policies such as old - community renovation and affordable housing construction may increase the demand for building materials. The policy of expanding domestic demand will stimulate the demand for stainless steel in home appliances and automobiles. With the tightening of raw material supply from Indonesia, the supply - demand situation of the stainless - steel market is expected to improve, and prices may stabilize and rebound [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term war escalation probability in the Middle East is low, and risk preference improves, providing emotional support for copper. With tight copper supply and increasing downstream start - up rates, copper prices are expected to rise in the short term [3]. - The supply risk in the Middle East for aluminum remains, and the planned shutdown of the South32 Mozambique smelter will keep supply tight. With domestic downstream resuming work, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [6]. - Although lead inventories have increased significantly at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The narrowing smelting profit may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rise later [9]. - The domestic zinc industry is weak, and although the Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply, concerns about trade and energy prices remain. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely during the conflict [11]. - The market has a strong sentiment to buy tin, but the supply - demand of tin is marginally relaxed and inventories are rising. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - In the medium term, the reduction policy of Indonesia's RKAB quota will support the rise of nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [15]. - The fundamental support for lithium carbonate is strong. With the improvement of downstream start - up, the spot may be in a tight situation, and lithium prices may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking rhythm and other factors [18]. - For alumina, the increase in maintenance and delay in production will reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The high registration of warehouse receipts will suppress the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely [21]. - For stainless steel, the supply pressure is increasing, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected to maintain an upward shock pattern [25]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost support is strong, and with the improvement of downstream demand after the festival, the price is expected to remain strong in the short term [28]. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - Trump said the war in Iran was basically over. Crude oil prices rose sharply and then fell back. Copper prices also fell first and then rose. LME copper 3M contract closed up 0.39% to $12,919/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 101,160 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 9,925 to 294,250 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term war escalation probability in the Middle East is low, and risk preference improves. TC is running at a low level, copper supply is tight, downstream start - up rates are rising, and scrap copper substitution is low. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short term. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,100/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - Crude oil prices rose and fell back, and aluminum prices followed. LME aluminum 3M contract fell 1.25% to $3,388/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,850 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 0.1 to 678,000 tons, and warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 336,000 tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 455,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply risk in the Middle East for aluminum remains, and the planned shutdown of the South32 Mozambique smelter will keep supply tight. With domestic downstream resuming work, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,200 - 25,500 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,300 - 3,450/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 0.21% to 16,746 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $17.5 to $1,932/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 55,700 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 285,900 tons [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Lead ore inventory and lead concentrate TC slightly increased, and recycled raw material inventory decreased marginally. Smelter start - up rates declined. Although lead inventories increased significantly at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The narrowing smelting profit may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rise later [9]. Zinc Market Information - On Monday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.54% to 24,427 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $61.5 to $3,318/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,360 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 76,300 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 95,000 tons. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory on March 9 was 218,300 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons from March 5 [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic zinc concentrate TC slightly increased, and smelting profit improved slightly. The inventories of smelter products and zinc ingot social inventory increased significantly. The Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply, but concerns about trade and energy prices remain. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely during the conflict [11]. Tin Market Information - On March 9, the SHFE tin main contract fell 2.53% to 383,710 yuan/ton. In the supply side, the start - up rate of Yunnan smelters decreased during the Spring Festival and recovered slowly after the festival. In Jiangxi, the supply of crude tin was tight due to the shortage of scrap. In the demand side, although the demand from emerging fields such as AI servers was optimistic, the overall industry was still in the post - festival resumption transition period, and the actual demand was not effectively reflected [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market has a strong sentiment to buy tin, but the supply - demand of tin is marginally relaxed and inventories are rising. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - On March 9, the SHFE nickel main contract fell 0.45% to 136,520 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were stable. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the medium term, the reduction policy of Indonesia's RKAB quota will support the rise of nickel prices. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East reduces market risk preference. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 153,865 yuan, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The LC2605 contract closed at 161,060 yuan, up 3.14% from the previous closing price [17]. Strategy Viewpoint - The fundamental support for lithium carbonate is strong. After the festival, the start - up rate of salt plants increased, and the inventory reduction of domestic lithium carbonate narrowed. With the improvement of downstream start - up, the spot may be in a tight situation, and lithium prices may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking rhythm, spot market premium and discount changes, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina Market Information - On March 9, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.48% to 2,911 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position was 459,300 hands, an increase of 1,100 hands from the previous trading day. The Shandong spot price rose 10 yuan/ton to 2,620 yuan/ton, at a discount of 291 yuan/ton to the main contract [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The increase in maintenance and delay in production will reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The high registration of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the futures market will suppress the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel Market Information - At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,105 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 102 to 52,013 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1,094,800 tons on March 6, a decrease of 2.19% from the previous period [23][24]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the festival, the supply pressure increased due to the arrival of steel mill resources and stagnant sales during the Spring Festival. The market procurement atmosphere improved, but the actual purchase of downstream users was still small. Stainless steel is expected to maintain an upward shock pattern, and the reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,400 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy rose and then fell. The main AD2604 contract closed up 1.68% to 23,670 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased, and the trading volume increased significantly. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06 to 58,100 tons. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price rose, and the import ADC12 quotation increased by 500 yuan/ton. The three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 0.07 to 36,500 tons [27]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost support for cast aluminum alloy is strong. With the improvement of downstream demand after the festival, and considering supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material supply shortages, the price is expected to remain strong in the short term [28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the prices of various non - ferrous metals, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty [1][2][7] - Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends, with some facing high inventory pressure and others being affected by production capacity changes and cost factors Summaries by Metal Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper increased positions and oscillated. The import price found support near the MA60 moving average, and the copper price rebounded. The risk - aversion sentiment due to the Middle East situation affected trading. The domestic SMM spot copper price dropped to 99,480 yuan, and the discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to shrink. The SMM social inventory increased by 1,700 tons to 578,900 tons. Uncertainties in the war situation and high visible inventory may lead the Shanghai copper price to seek support at 98,000 yuan or even the weekly line level [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated sharply, with spot discounts in different regions. The domestic social inventory is at a high level in recent years, but the Middle East situation has increased overseas shortage concerns, showing an external - strong and internal - weak market. The aluminum price is volatile at a historical high, and the previous high level has resistance. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference between them is expected to widen under geopolitical risks. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and the oversupply situation has improved slightly. The Middle East electrolytic aluminum production cut has a negative impact, and the soaring freight has increased the import cost, but the overall oversupply prospect remains unchanged. The alumina price rose sharply driven by funds, and after the volatility soared, selling call options can be considered [2] Zinc - With the sharp rise in oil and gas prices, the US dollar index continued to strengthen, and the LME zinc had insufficient rebound momentum, unable to strongly drive the domestic market. The SMM zinc social inventory continued to increase to 262,200 tons. The domestic road transportation has recovered, and the downstream start - up has gradually returned to normal. The low - level stocking willingness has increased, and the import ore TC has continued to decline. The performance in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season needs to be verified by inventory reduction, and it is currently in a high - level oscillation state, waiting for more directional signals [3] Lead - Recycled lead has been officially included in the delivery as a substitute, and the PB2703 contract has started to be implemented, reducing the delivery risk and effectively stabilizing the market fluctuation. The Shanghai lead market has entered a dual - pricing logic of primary and recycled lead, and the price center is expected to move down. However, the fixed discount of recycled lead to the primary lead delivery product is 150 yuan/ton, and the cost support of recycled lead is prominent when the lead price is low. After the festival, the downstream start - up has recovered quickly, and as the inventory raw materials are consumed, the downstream low - level stocking is expected to improve. The primary lead smelter's start - up is gradually recovering, and the SMM 1 lead has a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the near - month contract, and it is profitable to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory of recycled lead smelters is mainly concentrated in mid - to late March, and the refined - scrap price difference is running at a low level of 50 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories are still at a high level, and the import window remains open. Under the dominance of oversupply, the Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate narrowly around the cost, with a price range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, but the market trading was dull. The news about the Indonesian quota triggered speculation. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continued to increase, the market confidence declined, and the trading was light. There was only a small amount of rigid - demand restocking, and the terminal downstream procurement was basically completed, with almost no substantial purchasing intention. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan, the import nickel had a discount of 50 yuan, and the electrolytic nickel was at par. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel was resistant to decline, and the high - nickel iron price was 1,031 yuan per line point. The upstream price rebounded and then faced resistance and回调. The short - term market is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons. The market is in a pre - festival state, waiting for clarity [6] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions, and the downward trend tested the MA60 moving average again. The situation between the US, Israel, and Iran continued to heat up, the short - term oil price soared, which affected the global economic growth expectation and greatly dragged down the stock markets of Japan and South Korea centered on the semiconductor industry. The Gulf situation may also affect the investment rhythm of AI semiconductors. The previous upward trend was based on domestic small - metal rights and interests, while the current market is continuously evaluating the geopolitical situation. The price is still in a relatively high - price area. After the middle and downstream choose the right time for point - price stocking, the price may seek support at the weekly K - line level, such as 350,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded and reached a high level, but the market trading was dull. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase, and the strong spot and long - speculating positions are in the mainstream, with a fragile position structure. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, mainly because the downstream replenished inventory at the right time, the smelter has shown signs of unsalable products, the trader's confidence in domestic products has shaken, and the inventory in the middle - link is high, so there may be spot sales. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 1,970 US dollars, and the ore - end quotation has been flexibly adjusted downward. The short - term uncertainty of lithium carbonate is strong [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose and then fell, driven by the expected increase in energy costs due to the Middle East conflict. The SMM spot price of East China 553 silicon was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in the week were stable, except that the price of Taishu coke increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the news of the increase in the external - purchased electricity price of large eastern factories needs to be confirmed. The industrial silicon production in March is expected to be 345,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26%. The large factories in Xinjiang have resumed production this week, while the start - up in the southwest has remained stable. The weekly start - up of downstream organic silicon has increased, and the DMG price has risen; the start - up of primary aluminum alloy has declined due to the increase in aluminum price and increased wait - and - see sentiment; the polysilicon price has continued to fall, the inventory is high, and the production increase is limited. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory is 553,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,000 tons. The short - term price is driven by the macro - situation, and the volatility risk should be vigilant, maintaining an oscillating judgment [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose and then fell. The Middle East conflict has led to an expected increase in energy costs, and the increase in European oil and gas prices may increase the domestic photovoltaic procurement expectation. On the spot side, according to SMM data, the average price of N - type re -投料 has dropped to 48,900 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3,000 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the post - festival start - up situation is lower than expected. The SMM - statistics polysilicon inventory has risen to 348,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 tons. The high - inventory state continues to suppress the price. The short - term market fluctuates under the influence of macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are still weak, and the rebound space is limited [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Interval trading or wait - and - see [2] - Aluminum: Buy on dips [2] - Alumina: Short - term trading [2] - Aluminum alloy: Buy on dips [2] - Zinc: Short - term trading or moderately short on rallies [2] - Lead: Interval trading [2] - Nickel: Buy on dips [3] - Stainless steel: Buy on dips [3] - Tin: Interval trading [3] - Industrial silicon: Buy on dips moderately [3] - Polysilicon: Wait - and - see [3] - Lithium carbonate: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the consumption expectation needs time to verify. The price is in a high - level range and may adjust, but the adjustment space is limited [2]. - The aluminum market is influenced by factors such as bauxite prices, production capacity changes, and the Middle - East situation. The overall trend is upward, but the impact of the Middle - East situation is two - sided [2]. - The zinc price is under pressure due to continuous inventory build - up and weak downstream consumption, and it may oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - The lead price is affected by inventory changes, energy demand, and inflation expectations. It is in a low - level weak adjustment and maintains interval trading [2]. - The nickel price is supported by the supply limitation of nickel ore, but the inventory build - up and weak demand limit its upward drive. It is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation [3]. - The tin price is in a wide - range oscillation due to the tight supply of tin ore and the recovery of downstream consumption. Attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [3]. - The industrial silicon price rebounds with improved supply - demand expectations, but the rebound height is restricted by the oversupply situation. Polysilicon supply increases while demand is weak, and the price continues to fall [3]. - The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range oscillation with both supply and demand increasing. Attention should be paid to supply disturbances [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - In the week of 3/2 - 3/8, important economic data were released. For example, the euro - zone's February manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, and the US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 [11][19][21]. - The Chinese government set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5% and planned a deficit rate of about 4%. The manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% [13][14]. - The US - Iran conflict led to a rise in oil prices, increased inflation concerns, and reduced the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year [17]. - The euro - zone's February CPI increased by 1.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and the probability of the ECB's interest rate hike increased [18]. 3.2 Copper - The copper price is in a high - level range and is affected by macro factors such as the US - Iran conflict and inflation expectations. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the consumption expectation needs time to verify [2]. - The global copper inventory is in a high - level range, and the domestic social inventory continues to accumulate significantly [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - The price of domestic bauxite continues to fall, while the price of Guinea's bulk ore increases slightly. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increases [2]. - The downstream processing enterprises' start - up rate rises, and the social inventory of aluminum rods shows signs of a turning point [2]. 3.4 Zinc - The zinc concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and domestic smelters resume production seasonally after the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory continues to accumulate [2]. 3.5 Lead - The LME and COMEX lead inventories decrease slightly, while the SHFE lead inventory increases slightly. The upstream and downstream demand shows different trends [2]. - The lead price is affected by energy demand and inflation expectations, and it is in a low - level weak adjustment [2]. 3.6 Nickel - The nickel ore supply is tight, and the price is strong. The refined nickel production in March increases significantly, and the inventory accumulates [3]. - The nickel iron price is expected to rise with the resumption of steel mills' production, and the stainless steel price and production increase [3]. 3.7 Tin - The tin production in February is expected to be 17,000 tons. The import of tin concentrate and the export of refined tin show different trends [3]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the tin price is in a wide - range oscillation [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon production increases slightly, and the inventory decreases. The polysilicon production increases, and the inventory accumulates [3]. - The industrial silicon price rebounds, but the polysilicon price continues to fall [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - The production of lithium carbonate in February decreases, and the import shows different trends. The demand is strong, and the inventory continues to decline [3]. - The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The Middle East aluminum industry exhibits a "two ends external, single channel" characteristic, with approximately 7 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity along the Persian Gulf, accounting for 9% of global supply, heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, posing geopolitical risks that threaten about 8% of global supply flow [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Significant downward revision of overseas supply expected by 2026, with Qatar's 640,000 tons capacity reduced due to gas shortages, and the overseas incremental supply forecast adjusted from 800,000 tons to 440,000 tons; domestic production is expected to remain stable at 44.4 million tons, maintaining a global shortage pattern [1][9][10]. - The aluminum price center is projected to rise to 23,000-24,000 CNY/ton in 2026, compared to an average of 20,700 CNY in 2025, with an optimistic scenario seeing prices reaching 30,000 CNY [1][12]. - Domestic demand is expected to increase by approximately 2.5% or 200,000 tons, supported by energy storage, ultra-high voltage, and new energy vehicles offsetting reductions in photovoltaic demand [1][8]. - Industry profitability is anticipated to reach historical peaks, with pre-tax profits expected to increase by about 5,000 CNY/ton in 2026, driven by rising aluminum prices and declining alumina costs [1][13]. Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a short-term reversal in market expectations, with fluctuations in aluminum prices reflecting the uncertainty in the Middle East [3][7]. - The Middle East aluminum industry's structure is characterized by reliance on imported alumina and exports of electrolytic aluminum primarily to Asia and Europe, with transportation heavily dependent on the Strait of Hormuz [3][4]. - Observed disturbances include Qatar's 640,000 tons capacity reduction due to gas shortages and potential delivery issues for Bahrain Aluminum's 1.62 million tons capacity due to transportation blockages [4][5]. Domestic Market Conditions - The domestic electrolytic aluminum market is currently weak, influenced by post-festival recovery delays and high aluminum prices suppressing terminal demand, reflected in high inventory levels [6][10]. - The core catalysts for future market transactions will focus on geopolitical developments and seasonal demand patterns, with expectations for clearer inventory reduction points around mid-March [7][16]. Investment Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with strong earnings elasticity such as Shenhuo, Yun Aluminum, and Zhongfu; dividend-focused companies like Tianshan Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Nanshan Aluminum, which may achieve a dividend payout ratio of 100%; and growth-oriented companies like Huadong Copper [2][14]. - The preference for larger stocks like Shenhuo is based on lower valuations, while smaller stocks like Huadong Copper are favored for their innovative overseas projects [15][16]. Conclusion - The current market dynamics indicate a potential for significant price increases and profitability improvements in the electrolytic aluminum sector, driven by geopolitical factors and structural demand changes, with a favorable risk-reward profile for investors [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long positions are recommended for holding, with long - term strategic allocation value remaining unchanged, and short - term attention to structural entry opportunities [1] - Silver: It is recommended to wait and see, as short - term participation is difficult and the risk - reward ratio should be focused on [1] - Copper: Long positions are recommended for holding, with a short - term high - level shock and a test of the 100,000 - yuan support level, and a long - term optimistic outlook [1][7] - Zinc: It is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm and wait for more macro guidance [1][11] - Lead: It is under pressure, with short - term rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: The rebound is under pressure [1] - Aluminum: The rebound is under pressure [1] - Nickel: The rebound is under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to go long on dips [1] - Polysilicon: It is in a low - level shock, and cautious participation is advised [1] - Lithium carbonate: It is under pressure, and wait for the signal of increased positions to stabilize [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is affected by factors such as Poland's possible gold sales, strong US data, and the situation in Iran. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [1][3][4] - The copper market is affected by factors such as the tight global copper ore supply, high copper prices, and inventory accumulation. It is in a short - term high - level shock, and long - term trends are still optimistic [5][6][7] - The zinc market has weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation restricting the upside space. In the short term, it is under pressure, and in the long term, it is recommended to go long on dips [9][10][11] - The aluminum market has a weakened supply disturbance, and inventory is a factor suppressing prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [12][14][15] - The nickel market is affected by Indonesia's policy and downstream stainless - steel inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips [16][18][19] - The lithium carbonate market has a marginal decrease in inventory reduction, and it is recommended to wait and see [20][22][23] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: International precious - metal futures generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce. SHFE gold and silver also showed certain price changes [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US labor market is stabilizing, Poland's central bank may sell gold, and the gold market is affected by "triple shocks". However, the four underlying logics supporting the long - term bull market of precious metals remain unchanged [3][4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged, with short - term support around 1120. Silver should focus on the support around 20000 [4] Copper - **Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all showed certain increases. The trading volume and inventory also changed [5] - **Industry Logic**: The global copper ore supply is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in China has increased. High copper prices and the holiday effect have led to obvious inventory accumulation, but the expected effective circulating copper inventory is tight [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, copper is in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to go long on dips after a full correction. The long - term trend is still optimistic. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [99500, 102500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12800, 13400] dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc increased. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory changed [9] - **Industry Logic**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The supply and demand of zinc are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure. In the long term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 24500], and for LME zinc is [3250, 3350] dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of aluminum showed a slight change, and the inventory also changed [12] - **Industry Logic**: The supply disturbance in the Middle East has weakened. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has increased, and the downstream processing enterprises are gradually resuming production. The alumina market has an oversupply pattern [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23500 - 25500] [15] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased. The trading volume and inventory also changed [16] - **Industry Logic**: The expectation of nickel ore tightening is weakened. The downstream stainless - steel inventory has increased, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on dips, paying attention to Indonesia's policy and downstream stainless - steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract LC2605 increased slightly, and the trading volume and inventory changed [20] - **Industry Logic**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate is likely to continue to decrease. The market supply - demand gap expectation is strengthened, and it may maintain a high - level and strong shock [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously in the range of [145000 - 160000] [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a mid - term bullish view on copper, expecting it to be a metal with increasing demand and limited supply, and recommends mid - term buying and holding [1]. - Aluminum prices may spike in the short term due to potential production cuts in the Middle East, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday destocking amplitude [1]. - Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short term due to limited long - term capital investment and potential supply disruptions from Iran, despite the general domestic fundamentals [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [4]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range, with a generally weak fundamental situation [8]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and scrap lead profit support [11]. - Tin prices are still regarded as strong, but large fluctuations may occur, and attention should be paid to potential callback risks [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long term [18]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to be strong in the short term, with a supply - demand gap and potential for positive spreads between months [20]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From February 27 to March 5, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 15, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 535, the SHFE inventory increased by 1157, and the LME inventory increased by 20675 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Copper prices fluctuated in the first half of the week and rose slightly with increased positions in the second half. Downstream point - pricing was weak due to the post - Spring Festival recovery. LME North American warehousing continued, suppressing the LME cash - 3m structure. Concerns about China's consumption ability and geopolitical conflicts may affect copper prices [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From February 27 to March 5, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 730, 730, and 700 respectively. The domestic alumina price increased by 1, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Tensions in the Middle East may lead to potential production cuts in electrolytic aluminum, giving a risk premium to aluminum prices. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum product inventory accumulation is in line with seasonality but at a higher absolute level [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From February 27 to March 5, the spot premium decreased by 30, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong zinc ingot prices increased by 240, 250, and 250 respectively. The LME inventory decreased by 250 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight in the medium term, and the downstream recovery is slow. Long - term capital investment is limited, and there are supply disruptions from Iran, which may support zinc prices in the short term [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From February 27 to March 5, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the prices of Jinchuan and Russian nickel decreased by 450 and 250 respectively. The LME inventory remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel increased in January, demand was weak, and inventories increased. There are many supply - side disturbances, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From February 27 to March 5, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 25, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 50. The inventory increased seasonally, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [8]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of stainless steel decreased slightly, demand was in the off - season, costs were stable, and the fundamentals were weak. It is expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range [8]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From February 27 to March 5, the spot premium decreased by 20, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased by 25, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is expected to recover in mid - March. Demand is weak, and lead prices are expected to be weak and volatile [11]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From February 27 to March 5, the spot import profit increased by 2701.49, the LME inventory decreased by 5, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 11 [14]. - **Market Situation**: Tin prices rose significantly this week. The supply is expected to recover, but there are supply - side risks. Demand is weak in the short term, and inventories are high. Tin prices are still strong but may be volatile [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From February 27 to March 5, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 50, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 12 [18]. - **Market Situation**: Southwest production enterprises are mostly shut down, and the overall destocking amplitude is expected to narrow. Supply and demand are close to balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From February 27 to March 5, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased by 2000, the main contract basis decreased by 800, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 315 [20]. - **Market Situation**: The lithium carbonate market was strong last week. Supply disturbances increased, and downstream procurement was limited. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, with a supply - demand gap, and there is potential for positive spreads between months [20].