镍：节前资金离场冲击，中线矛盾仍在印尼 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 2026 年 2 月 9 日 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 131,840 | -2,590 | -8,160 | -16,170 | -15,880 | 12,090 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 13,670 | -140 | -470 | -1,055 | -215 | 1,080 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 554,444 | -28,080 | -457,999 | -198,396 | -577,812 | 443,704 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 287,657 | -42,500 | -328,691 | -200,623 | -260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Nickel: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction still lies in Indonesia [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with the cost - support center shifting upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: The industry inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to this week's commodity sentiment [2][16]. - Polysilicon: The industry cost guidance price has been determined [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 131,840, down 2,590 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 13,670, down 140 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 554,444, down 28,080 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 287,657, down 42,500 from T - 1 [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the nickel ore price formula, adjust the nickel ore production target, and there are issues such as corporate illegal land use and port monopoly in the Indonesian nickel industry [4][5][7]. - **Trend intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 132,920, up 140 from T - 1; the trading volume was 586,706, up 54,982 from T - 1; the open interest was 328,575, down 1,202 from T - 1. The spot - 2605 basis was 1,580, down 9,640 from T - 1 [11]. - **Macro and industry news**: In January 2026, the estimated new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. Toyota plans to increase global vehicle production by 10% to about 11.3 million in 2028 and increase hybrid vehicle production by about 30% to 6.7 million [12][14]. - **Trend intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The Si2605 closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 105 from T - 1; the trading volume was 335,419 lots, up 19,855 from T - 1; the open interest was 277,011 lots, up 10,029 from T - 1. The PS2605 closing price was 49,285 yuan/ton, down 265 from T - 1 [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: In 2025, the wind power utilization rate was 94.3%, and the photovoltaic power generation utilization rate was 94.8%. The photovoltaic power generation utilization rates in Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet were lower than 90% [16]. - **Trend intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 0 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday cooling does not change the upward trend of the bottom. Pre - holiday, the precious metal decline led to a cooling of sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, and funds left the market to avoid high - level risks. Although the non - ferrous metals generally declined, there were signs of stabilization on Friday. In the nickel market, there are supply uncertainties in the far - month, and the financial attribute of the non - ferrous sector has increased. For trading, it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday, and consider light - position long positions after the price stabilizes [6]. - The cost support of nickel ore for subsequent links is emerging, especially for the NPI price. The cost of stainless steel remains firm, but the immediate cost - profit of steel mills is shrinking. After the holiday, if the nickel price stabilizes and inventory reduction is normal, there is still value in going long at a low price [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory at a High Level - Global visible nickel inventory reached 360,000 tons, an increase of 2,080 tons this week. Among them, domestic social inventory increased by 2,582 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 1,002 tons. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply, and the premium reached 9,500 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slowly Accumulating Before the Festival - Before the festival, the social inventory of stainless steel was slowly accumulating. The inventory of stainless steel plants and the overall inventory - to - sales ratio of the 300 - series need attention. The spot premium and price spread of stainless steel also showed certain trends [16][17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In January, refined nickel production reached 37,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel in 2025 was 450,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45% [24]. - **Demand**: In pure nickel consumption, the consumption of electroplating and alloys decreased by 2 - 3% year - on - year. In January, the PMI of the nickel downstream industry stood above the 50 boom - bust line due to the recovery of stainless steel, but the consumption of pure nickel in electroplating, alloys and other fields was in the off - season and decreased month - on - month [28]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota**: The Indonesian nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. In January 2026, Indonesia's import of Philippine nickel ore decreased by about 380,000 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of about 63%, and increased by about 110,000 tons year - on - year, a year - on - year increase of about 94.77%. In February 2026, the first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore increased month - on - month [30]. - **NPI**: NPI showed a recovery trend. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia and the import volume of nickel iron in China also had corresponding changes. The profit margins of NPI in different regions also showed different trends [31][32]. - **Chromium - based Products**: The price of chromium - based products turned upward. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, which led to a continuous rebound in the price of chromium ore. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in January 2026 decreased month - on - month [43]. - **Cold - rolled Hedging Profit on the Futures Market**: On February 6, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes, and the futures market offered cold - rolled hedging profit [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: It is estimated that the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 45.06 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. In February, due to the Spring Festival maintenance, the production schedule decreased significantly. In 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.519 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 5.031 million tons, the same as the previous year. The net export volume was 3.512 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [54]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding was still in the boom cycle, providing support for stainless - steel demand, while the growth rate of other terminal fields was not optimistic, especially the real - estate transaction volume decreased significantly year - on - year [56]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2% respectively, with a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7% higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In January 2026, the new - energy vehicle market was in the recovery period after the expiration of the purchase - tax exemption policy, but the sales volume still achieved positive growth [60]. - **Global Market**: In 2025, the global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million. China's new - energy vehicle exports in 2025 were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [65]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: In 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons, the ternary precursor production increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the ternary cathode material production increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for sulfuric acid nickel slowed down month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year, and the price followed the upward trend of refined nickel [67]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur price led to an increase in the cost of MHP, and the price remained firm. The good demand for sulfuric acid nickel boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - In February, the surplus of pure nickel expanded as production recovered [74].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 节前需求淡季，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-05日沪镍主力合约2603开于136810元/吨，收于134430元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.11%，当日成交量 为582524（+100958）手，持仓量为93478（-5975）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高开低走的弱势震荡态势，日内波动加剧，核心驱动源于供应过剩与节前需求 淡季的双重压制，叠加宏观情绪偏弱，短期仍以偏弱震荡为主。春节临近，不锈钢和新能源电池产业链进入季节 性淡季，下游备货基本结束，采购活动停滞，市场需求淡静，缺乏支撑镍价上涨的动力。美元走强压制大宗商品 价格，隔夜伦镍收跌 0.37%，对沪镍形成联动影响。有色板块整体回调，市场情绪偏谨慎，进一步加剧沪镍下行 压力。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场延续分化态势。菲律宾矿山招标价格在强劲的采购需求下继续冲高， 而中国国内市场因成本严重倒挂，买方陷入全面观望，交投几近停滞，市场呈现"外热内冷"的鲜明对比。菲律宾 方面，矿山招标价格涨势未止，市场看涨情绪依然浓厚。据市场消息，北方矿山Eramen的1.4% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - Indonesia's resource nationalism is intensifying, with the government tightening mining policies to increase fiscal revenue amid significant budget deficits. This includes controlling RKAB supply, adjusting HPM pricing formulas, and conducting antitrust investigations to establish a global pricing system based on Indonesian mineral costs [4][10]. - The depletion of high-grade nickel resources is prompting a policy shift towards protecting reserves. The government has stopped approving new RKEF projects and is expected to favor low-grade nickel resources, aligning with the needs of the new energy industry [4][10]. - A significant reduction in RKAB quotas is anticipated for 2026, with estimates suggesting a drop to 250-260 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025, potentially leading to a supply gap of 40-50 million wet tons [4][10]. - The HPM pricing formula may be revised, which could increase costs for wet processing projects significantly, thereby raising the global marginal cost line for nickel products [4][10]. - The report suggests monitoring the implementation of Indonesian policies and recommends focusing on companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, and Zhongwei New Materials [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Progression of Resource Nationalism - The Indonesian government is tightening RKAB quotas, signaling a reduction to 250-260 million tons for 2026, a 34% decrease from 2025 [10]. - The government is enhancing scrutiny of monopolistic risks in the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) and may adjust the HPM pricing formula to include by-products like cobalt [10][10]. 2. Supply-Side Changes - The report highlights the shift in focus from high-grade nickel to low-grade nickel due to the depletion of high-grade resources, with a projected supply gap in 2026 [4][10]. - The anticipated changes in RKAB quotas and HPM pricing are expected to create a structural shift in the industry, impacting supply and pricing dynamics [4][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to keep an eye on the specific implementation of Indonesian policies and suggests companies that may benefit from these changes [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures both showed upward trends on February 4, 2026, with nickel experiencing a significant rebound and stainless steel showing a milder upward movement. Due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, it is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies. However, considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [1][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 135,400 yuan/ton and closed at 137,680 yuan/ton, a change of 3.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 481,566 (-181,798) lots, and the open interest was 99,453 (-2,047) lots. The contract showed a strong rebound, maintaining a high - level operation with a significant upward shift in the price center. The previous panic - driven decline led to an oversold situation, creating a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the London nickel market, driving the Shanghai nickel rebound through the linkage of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore market showed a differentiated consolidation trend. Affected by the price correction of downstream products, the CIF quotes in the domestic market slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere was dull. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes and mainly executed previous orders. However, due to limited downstream acceptance, high - priced resources had difficulty in trading, and buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a slight increase in the actual bargaining space and a decline in CIF prices. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and the new benchmark price and premium for the first half of February were still in effect. The market was in an adaptation and wait - and - see period for the new price system, with no new policies or trading information to guide, and overall trading activities were calm [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 145,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was poor, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands mostly increased. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 48,072 (-108) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,314 (786) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [3]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [4]. - **Inter - period**: None [4]. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. - **Futures - spot**: None [4]. - **Options**: None [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,620 yuan/ton and closed at 13,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 224,029 (+4,598) lots, and the open interest was 59,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a fluctuating upward trend, achieving a recovery driven by Shanghai nickel and cost support. The trading volume moderately increased, and the open interest slightly increased. Overall, it was relatively strong, but the rhythm was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. The previous continuous decline created a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar led to a resonance of domestic and foreign market sentiments, driving the stainless steel rebound [4]. - **Spot**: Trading was light but improved compared to the previous period, and pre - festival restocking orders increased. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+100) yuan/ton, the price in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and the premium of 304/2B was 310 to 510 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,030.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [5]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [5]. - **Inter - period**: None [5]. - **Inter - variety**: None [5]. - **Futures - spot**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].

近期煤炭板块的大幅上涨主要是由于印尼煤炭配额政策的变化。印尼政府决定 大幅下调煤炭出口配额，从 2025 年的 7.31 亿吨配额和 7.91 亿吨实际产量， 降至 6 亿吨左右。这一变化引发了市场对煤炭供应紧缺的担忧，特别是对于依 赖印尼低卡煤的南方电厂而言，这种预期导致了市场反应剧烈。 为什么印尼政府要限制资源品的配额？ 印尼政府限制资源品配额的原因主要有两个方面。首先，当前 3,800 大卡 M42 煤种 FOB 价格约为 47 美元，而矿山成本在 40-45 美元之间，价格接近成本上 限。为了增加财政收入，印尼计划征收 5-8%的出口税。但在当前价格水平下， 再加上出口税，许多矿山将无利可图，从而可能选择停产。其次，通过减少配 其他主要供应国如澳大利亚受飓风影响，美国因国内用电需求增加而减 少出口，以及俄罗斯高成本等因素，难以弥补印尼煤炭出口减少造成的 缺口，预计四五月份煤价可能上涨。 建议投资者关注煤炭板块的投资机会，推荐配置海外业务布局较多的兖 矿能源，以及优质焦煤动力煤公司如中煤、陕煤等，同时关注镍品种的 后续配置机会。 煤与镍：印尼减少配额的逻辑与进展 20260204 摘要 印尼煤炭配额大幅 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs and Macquarie raised their 2026 nickel price forecasts due to signals from Indonesia indicating a tightening in ore supply, with Goldman Sachs increasing its forecast from $14,800 per ton to $17,200 per ton [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that nickel prices could reach around $18,700 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 as supply tightens [2] - Macquarie raised its average nickel price forecast for 2026 from $15,000 per ton to $17,750 per ton [2] Group 2 - Company is a leading global nickel enterprise with a comprehensive coverage of the nickel industry chain, starting from nickel ore trading and gradually transforming into a full-fledged industrial company [2] - The company has signed long-term trade and supply agreements with mining companies in the Philippines and Indonesia, and has established a total nickel production capacity of 400,000 metal tons on OBI Island, Indonesia [2] - The company has extended its operations downstream to include nickel sulfate and cobalt, forming a complete nickel product service system [2] Group 3 - Company’s stock, Likin Resources (02245), rose over 5%, trading at HKD 26.96 with a transaction volume of HKD 64.17 million [3]

ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，本轮上涨主要由宏观、资金与基本面多重因素共同驱动：宏观层面，美联储 释放降息信号带动宽松预期升温，美国政府停摆结束缓解市场不确定性，叠加全球大宗商品普涨形成板 块共振，共同提振有色金属情绪；资金层面，美元指数走弱降低海外采购成本，美股科技股回调促使资 金流向大宗商品避险，为镍价注入流动性；基本面则受地缘局势扰动及主产国供应收紧预期支撑。在多 方因素协同推动下，市场看涨情绪集中释放，推动镍价强势突破。 本次镍价上涨的核心驱动在于基本面预期的同步转向。供应端，印尼计划收缩出口配额、加强监管并叠 加雨季影响，与菲律宾的季节性减产形成共振，共同推升了全球供应趋紧的预期。需求端虽呈现"弱现 实"，但节前不锈钢与动力电池的备货提供了刚需支撑，三元电池需求的结构性改善亦形成利好，加之 多家国际投行集体上调价格预期，为市场情绪提供了有力背书。整体来看，当前镍市处于 "供应预期收 紧、需求现实偏弱、库存高压但预期改善"的复杂格局中。随着春节临近，产业链呈现典型季节性特 征：上游矿山及中小冶炼企业活动放缓，下游备货进入尾声，贸易商心态分化，市场整体活跃度逐步下 降。 ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍上 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 单边：区间操作为主 美联储鹰派言论升温，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-03日沪镍主力合约2603开于132640元/吨，收于134830元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.25%，当日成交量 为663364（-144776）手，持仓量为101500（-9445）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈 "低开 — 探底 — 震荡回升" 的弱势整理走势，整体在宏观情绪与产业基本面博 弈下寻求支撑。宏观方面，隔夜美联储鹰派言论升温，市场担忧流动性收紧，引发大宗商品普跌，伦镍大幅下挫， 拖累沪镍开盘走弱。国内宏观政策相对稳定，但节前资金避险情绪上升，抑制价格反弹高度。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场与下游走势分化。受海外宏观消息影响，沪镍期货大幅调整，下游镍 铁价格随之回调。然而，镍矿端受前期极高的FOB成交成本支撑，CIF报价维持高位，难以松动。据悉，菲律宾1.4% 品位镍矿至印尼的CIF成交价已达到58-60美元，国内港口同品位报价也跟涨至相近水平。市场呈现僵持状态。镍 矿贸易商基于采购成本，报价坚挺。而下游镍铁厂因产品价格下跌，利润 ...