1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and forecasts of various commodities on July 25, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has its own unique trend influenced by factors such as supply - demand, macro - economic news, and policy changes [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices in a state of oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are turning weak, and the trend strength is 0 [2][14][16]. - **Lead**: High domestic total inventory restricts price rebounds, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State. The trend strength is - 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term oscillation. Aluminum oxide prices are strengthening, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for aluminum oxide, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. The trend strength is 0. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances intensify, and it may be strong in the short term, with a trend strength of 1 [2][33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market shows resistance to decline. The trend strength is 0. Polysilicon is affected more by policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upside space, with a trend strength of 1 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a state of wide - range oscillation, with trend strengths of 0 for rebar and 0 for hot - rolled coil [2][43][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Overseas mining companies' quotation increases lead to wide - range oscillations, with trend strengths of 0 for both [2][47][49]. - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1. Coking coal has strengthened supply - policy expectation constraints and oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][51][53]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][58]. Others - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][59].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - On July 23, the nickel price shifted to narrow - range fluctuations as the continuously surging varieties adjusted, indicating emerging market divergence. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and price pressure persists. With the approval of additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia, nickel ore supply will be abundant, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. Although the ferronickel price has slightly rebounded, most smelters in Indonesia are still at a loss, and the production reduction after the conversion to high - grade nickel matte is limited, providing limited price support. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, and it is difficult to support the raw material end. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained flat. Overall, the nickel fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the subsequent support from the ore end may weaken. Currently, the macro - sentiment dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - On July 23, the SHFE nickel 2509 closed at 123,370, down 0.06% from the previous day, and the total index positions decreased by 2,860 to 173,672 lots. The nickel market's excess situation remains, and price pressure exists. The supply of nickel ore will be loose, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. The ferronickel price has a slight rebound, but most Indonesian smelters are still at a loss, and the support for prices is limited. Stainless steel is in the off - season with high inventories, and it is difficult to support the raw material end. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained at 27,250, and it is expected to stop falling temporarily. The overall performance of each industrial link is weakening, and the support from the ore end may loosen. The macro - sentiment currently dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be treated with caution [7]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that Indonesia's actual nickel ore production in 2025 was only 120 million tons, far lower than the approved RKAB quota of 364.1 million tons in the first half of the year. The low utilization rate of the quota was due to the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has been increasing due to policies and taxes. APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance its international reputation [8][10]. - Bulgaria launched a 124 - megawatt/496.2 - megawatt - hour battery energy storage system, marking a step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 megawatt - hours of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A Turkish research team developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which significantly reduces silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency, potentially reducing production costs [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the region achieve its energy and emission - reduction goals [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly. Similar to nickel, due to the long - term price decline and the shift in market macro - sentiment, it is expected that stainless steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [5]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 123,310 yuan/ton and closed at 123,530 yuan/ton, a change of 1.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, and the open interest was 35,618 lots. The night - session opened with a gap - up and rose rapidly, then oscillated and declined after midnight. The day - session continued to oscillate and decline, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [1][2]. - **Macro News**: Germany plans to invest 631 billion euros by 2028 to boost the economy. Brazil and the US may start a "tariff war". The EU is preparing to counter - attack. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stability - growth work plans for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation increased by about 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The prices of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium mostly remained stable, while the premiums of Huayou and Sumitomo resources decreased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Jinchuan nickel's premium was 0 - 2000 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 0 - 350 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,093 (- 18.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 208,092 ( + 216) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,870 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, and the open interest was 124,058 lots. The night - session opened with a rapid rise and then oscillated horizontally. The day - session oscillated and declined, and recovered the morning's decline in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand News**: The 1.2 - trillion - yuan investment in Yajiang Hydropower is expected to drive stainless steel demand. In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, with a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the tight supply of nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cuts of local smelters. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, with a basically flat month - on - month change. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 was still the mainstream premium. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also shut down [3][4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market's afternoon trading was significantly better than the morning's, and the spot price increased slightly. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 120 - 320 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 903.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy**: For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The macro - optimistic atmosphere supports the continued strength of Shanghai nickel. On the 22nd, Shanghai nickel 2509 closed up 1.52% at 123,720 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index increased by 12,011 to 176,532 lots. However, the nickel surplus pattern has not reversed, and price pressure still exists. The nickel fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the overall performance of each industrial link continues to weaken. Currently, the macro - sentiment dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Macro - optimism supports Shanghai nickel's strength, with the 2509 contract rising 1.52% to 123,720 yuan/ton and the index's total open interest increasing by 12,011 to 176,532 lots [8]. - The nickel surplus situation remains, and prices face pressure. As the supplementary quotas of Indonesia's RKAB are gradually approved, nickel ore supply will be abundant, and premiums and ore prices may decline [8]. - Nickel - iron prices rebounded slightly at a low level, but most Indonesian smelters are still at a loss at this price. After the conversion to high - grade nickel matte, the reduction is limited, and the support for prices is also limited. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, making it difficult to support the raw material end. The weak atmosphere of nickel - iron and stainless steel drags down the nickel ore end [8]. - The price of nickel sulfate continued to rise to 27,250. It is expected to stop falling temporarily under the support of low inventories of nickel salt plants and the rigid restocking demand of precursors [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In 2025, Indonesia's actual nickel ore production was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The low utilization rate of RKAB quotas was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas such as Sulawesi. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [9]. - Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has continued to rise due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio from B40 to B50, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT). The APNI is formulating ESG regulations in line with IRMA standards and conducting a gap analysis of 57 local regulations to enhance the international reputation of Indonesia's nickel industry [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This project is an important step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag). The silver consumption is less than 0.5 mg/W, far lower than that of traditional silver - contact cells, while achieving almost the same efficiency. This innovation is expected to significantly reduce production costs [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved energy storage project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [11]

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 120,300 yuan/ton and closed at 122,550 yuan/ton, a change of 1.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 134,799 lots, and the open interest was 41,520 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened slightly lower at night, then rose rapidly and oscillated horizontally. During the day session, it oscillated upwards, slightly declined in the afternoon, and closed with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [2]. - The spot market saw an upward adjustment in the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel by about 1,400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotes of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The nickel price on the futures market rose strongly, but the demand did not show obvious growth. The premium remained stable, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The spot trading was average [2]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,111 (551.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,876 (300) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of nickel have not improved, the nickel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that the nickel price will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The strategy for nickel is to be cautiously bullish on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,735 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 255,058 lots, and the open interest was 122,622 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher at night, rose rapidly, and then declined slightly in the second half of the night. During the day session, it rose rapidly to a new high and then oscillated horizontally, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [3]. - In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold successively in August, and a mine has offered a quote of 1.3% FOB 31, which is lower than the previous period. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to the production cuts of smelters in local industrial parks. Currently, the nickel ore supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) has decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat compared with the previous period [3]. - There are obvious price differences in domestic trade premiums, with transactions ranging from +23 to +28, but +24 is still the mainstream premium. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing nickel ice, and some small smelters have cut production. Some domestic smelters have also stopped production [4]. - According to Mysteel's research, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in China has remained stable at 900 - 905 yuan/nickel. In the spot market, steel mills raised prices at the opening, driving most spot prices up, and the market inquiry atmosphere has improved. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 12,900 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market is 12,900 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 55 to 255 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron has changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 901.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly, the stainless steel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that stainless steel will test the upper pressure in the near future [4]. - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the elastic space [2][4] - Stainless Steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to lithium mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are in the process of destocking, and the futures market is relatively resilient [2][12] - Polysilicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and the futures market has an upward driving force [2][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,500 yuan, the stainless - steel main contract was 12,725 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 94,302 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 162,130 lots. Other data such as import nickel prices, spreads, and production costs also showed corresponding changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; Some nickel smelters and cold - rolling mills in Indonesia had production adjustments; The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period; The approved production target in 2025 was higher than that in 2024; Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,960 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,206,323 lots and a position of 377,305 lots. Other data such as spot prices, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; There were intensive policy deployments in the new - energy vehicle industry; A Zimbabwean state - owned mining enterprise planned to build a lithium - concentrate beneficiation plant [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, and that of PS2509 was 43,850 yuan/ton. There were also data on trading volume, position, spreads, spot prices, profits, and inventories [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Two component tenders were postponed or terminated [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (relatively strong) [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but the real - world situation limits the upside potential. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and real - world supply - demand [4][5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry is in a de - stocking phase, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is a key factor to watch. For polysilicon, it is a policy - driven market, and it may be safer to go long on dips [30][34][35]. - Lithium carbonate: Driven by the "Anti - Involution 1.0 + Lithium Mine 2.0" policies, the price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the approval of mining licenses in August [63][66]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - **Nickel**: Macro and news improve market sentiment, but the real - world fundamentals limit the price elasticity. The support from the nickel ore end is weakening, and the supply expectations from the smelting end restrict the upside [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Macro - expectations boost the futures market, but real - world supply - demand is still a drag. The market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. Nickel - iron inventory pressure is high but slightly eased, and stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [6][7]. - China's port nickel - ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9,483,600 wet tons [9]. - **Market News** - Multiple events such as potential export restrictions, project startups, factory resumptions, and production suspensions in the nickel and stainless - steel industries were reported [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose, with the futures closing at 8,695 yuan/ton on Friday. Polysilicon futures soared, closing at 43,850 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot price also increased [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Industrial silicon**: Supply - side production increased, with Southwest China having a hedging action. The overall industry inventory continued to decline, with a social inventory reduction of 4,000 tons and a factory inventory reduction of 1,000 tons. Demand from polysilicon and organic silicon provided short - term support [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply increased marginally as some factories resumed production. The upstream inventory decreased, but the terminal demand was weak, and the price increase transmission was not smooth [32][33]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon is expected to be resilient before the end of the market sentiment, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is crucial. Polysilicon is in a policy - driven market, and going long on dips may be a safer strategy [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The lithium carbonate futures contracts accelerated their upward movement. The 2509 contract closed at 69,960 yuan/ton, up 5,680 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose by 2,900 yuan/ton to 66,650 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Policy issues in Jiangxi and Qinghai regions affected the market. Lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching 19,115 tons this week, a 1.61% increase [64]. - **Demand**: The inventory accumulation of downstream cathode materials slowed down. The new - energy storage project installation scale decreased significantly in June [65]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to increase, mainly concentrated in the trading sector, while the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,364 tons to 10,239 tons [65]. - **Market Outlook** - Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, with the futures main - contract price expected to range from 55,000 to 75,000 yuan/ton. A positive spread strategy is recommended for the inter - period trading, and selling hedging is advised [66][67][68].

淡水河谷印尼公司将在2026-2027年寻求高达12亿美元的融资 智通财经7月19日电，镍矿商淡水河谷印尼公司主管Andaru Brahmono Adi于7月18日表示，公司计划在 2026-2027年期间寻求10亿至12亿美元的融资，以为其矿山和冶炼厂项目提供资金。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The nickel ore support weakened due to the increase in the inventory of nickel ore arriving from the Philippines, and the second - stage nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased, mainly affected by weak downstream demand. The transaction price of ferronickel continued to decline, affected by the negative feedback from the stainless - steel industry, and iron plants suffered serious losses. Stainless steel also continued to fluctuate, with cost support weakening, and some large manufacturers entered the production - cut cycle again. The new - energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent cooperation between Indonesia and the United States after they reached a tariff agreement [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the continued cobalt - mine ban in Congo, Jinhai's entry into the production - cut cycle, Indonesia's shortening of the nickel - ore quota license period from three years to one year, and potential impacts on the nickel industry chain from the Indonesia - US tariff negotiation. Negative factors include high pure - nickel inventory, stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow de - stocking, and deepening contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain with an unchanged oversupply situation [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Shanghai Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2) [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about rising raw - material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the disk (strategy level 3); sell put options (strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (strategy level 3) [3]. 3.2. Nickel and Stainless - Steel Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest value of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 120,550 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,710 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; the continuous - two contract is 120,820 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the continuous - three contract is 120,970 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The LME nickel 3M is 15,215 US dollars/ton, up 1.02%. The trading volume is 131,554 lots, and the open interest is 54,128 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,555 tons, up 1.22%. The basis of the main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 77.8% [8]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest value of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the continuous - two contract is 12,740 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; the continuous - three contract is 12,735 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The trading volume is 151,703 lots, and the open interest is 100,817 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 110,991 tons, down 0.05%. The basis of the main contract is 375 yuan/ton, up 5.63% [9]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,173 tons, an increase of 1,144 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, an increase of 708 tons; the stainless - steel social inventory is 990.8 tons, an increase of 12.8 tons; the nickel - pig - iron inventory is 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons [10].