1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall black - series commodity futures declined on May 27. The steel price continued to move down, and the market sentiment was pessimistic due to the second - round proposed price cut of coke. The supply of raw coal was strong while the demand was weak, and the market participants were in a wait - and - see state. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Overview - On May 27, the black - series commodity futures declined. The rebar closed at 2980 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 1.33%; the iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke continued to fall [1] Market Analysis - The steel price continued to decline, and the steel mills proposed a second - round price cut of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The coke futures price hit a 9 - year low, and the coking coal futures price rebounded after an early - morning decline. After the first - round price cut, the profit of coking enterprises turned negative. Both coking and steel enterprises had a negative attitude towards purchasing raw coal, and the inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises decreased by 2.17% to 865.73 million tons. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 3% to 86.3%, the raw coal inventory increased by 18 million tons to 624.8 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 37.1 million tons to 447.5 million tons. The trading volume of coking coal online auctions decreased, with a flow - auction ratio of 51.9%, a 11.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, investors should take a short - term shock approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, investors should take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1] Summary - The market supply - demand relationship had no obvious change, and the market sentiment was weak under the expectation of the second - round price cut of coke. The terminal market was in a wait - and - see state, and the seasonal demand was weak. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon is under pressure, with weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices. While there are signs of supply-demand imbalances and negative feedback, the market should not be overly bearish considering the steel sentiment [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Hot-rolled coil's supply and demand both dropped, and inventory also decreased at a slower pace. Iron ore production is still relatively high, and the supply pressure is large. The negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. Domestic demand is weak, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. The market sentiment is low, and the market is weak but may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market continued to correct today. The global shipment of iron ore decreased compared with the previous period and was weaker than the same period last year. The arrival volume in China decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to decline. Terminal demand entered the off-season, and the iron ore production decreased slightly last week. It is expected that the short-term reduction of iron ore production is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of iron ore have a certain marginal weakening pressure, and the macro-level benefits have been reflected in the previous rebound. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices continued to decline. Iron ore production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but there were still profits, so the daily coke production remained at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders did not make any purchases. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to decline. The production of coking coal mines remained at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut-down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, and the transaction price continued to decline. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure at the production end continued to accumulate rapidly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal remains at a significant discount, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices dropped significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill ended, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts recently, the weekly production data increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the expected arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon manganese increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. The impact of tariffs should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal remained basically the same, and the demand remained stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. The tariff trend should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The steel industry may shift to a structure of weak supply and demand, with cost weakening and strong over - supply expectations. Consider rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sales. [4] - For coking coal and coke, the industry's off - season is being realized. Maintain a high - shorting idea, but early short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks. [5] - Silicon iron's rebound due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate without new large - scale production cut expectations. [7] - Iron ore is in a stage of accumulating off - season contradictions and will experience small - scale oscillations. [8] 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - On May 23, far - month and near - month contracts of various black metals generally declined. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar fell 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%), and the RB2510 contract fell 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%). [2] - The cross - month spreads, spreads/parities/profits, and basis of different varieties also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 increased by 7 yuan/ton. [2] Steel - Weekend spot prices dropped slightly, and trading was weak. The current supply - demand structure seems healthy, but there are strong over - supply expectations. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse the industry trend, but there is no clear information. [4] - Suggestions include unilateral waiting and using hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in hedging and open - position management. [9] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of coking coal and coke continued to decline. The coking coal auction had more failed bids, and the coal price decreased. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price was 1280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/week - on - week). [5] - Futures prices also fell. The black chain index continued to decline and hit new lows. The weighted price of coking coal decreased by 6.03% week - on - week. [5] - Unilateral high - shorting is recommended, and early short positions can be appropriately closed. [5][9] Ferrous Alloys - Silicon iron and manganese silicon large - scale producers had significant production cuts this week. Silicon iron's spot resources in the Ningxia region were tight, while manganese silicon had no new large - scale production cut expectations after profit repair. [7] - Cost is expected to decline slightly. Silicon iron's spot tightness may lead to a continued rebound, and manganese silicon is expected to oscillate. [7] - It is recommended to hold previous long positions in silicon iron and long - short spreads of ferrous alloys. [7] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual production - rush stages, and port inventories may shift from slight destocking to slight stocking. [8] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate slightly. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and short at high prices. [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products on May 26, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide data support for investors' trading decisions [1][5][15][24][40][47] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base difference of power coal was - 189.4 yuan/ton on May 19 and - 190.4 yuan/ton from May 20 to May 23; the differences between May - January, September - January, and September - May were all 0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Base Difference and Ratio Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base difference of INE crude oil ranged from - 11.31 to - 5.39 yuan/ton; the base difference of fuel oil was 101.32 yuan/ton on May 22, and other data were not provided; the ratio of crude oil to asphalt ranged from 0.1290 to 0.1329 [6] Chemical Commodities - **Base Difference Data**: For various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., the base differences showed different values from May 19 to May 23, 2025. For example, the base difference of natural rubber was - 5 yuan/ton on May 19 and 165 yuan/ton on May 23 [11] - **Inter - period Data**: The inter - period differences of various chemical products, such as the differences between May - January, September - January, and September - May, also had different values. For example, the difference between May - January of natural rubber was 90 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety differences of various chemical products, such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., also showed different values from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [11] 3. Black Metals - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base differences of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed different values. For example, the base difference of rebar was 111.0 yuan/ton on May 19 and 114.0 yuan/ton on May 23 [16] - **Inter - period Data**: The inter - period differences of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, such as the differences between May - January, September - January, and September - May, also had different values [16] - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety data such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, etc., also showed different values from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [16] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base differences of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market showed different values. For example, the base difference of copper was 310 yuan/ton on May 19 and 350 yuan/ton on May 23 [25] - **LME Data**: On May 23, 2025, the LME premium or discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of various non - ferrous metals were provided [31] London Market - **LME Base Difference, Shanghai - London Ratio, and Import Profit and Loss Data**: Data on LME base difference, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss of various non - ferrous metals were presented [31] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base differences of various agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and corn showed different values [40] - **Inter - period Data**: The inter - period differences of various agricultural products, such as the differences between May - January, September - January, and September - May, also had different values [40] - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety data such as the ratio of soybeans to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc., also showed different values from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed different values. For example, the base difference of CSI 300 was 33.95 on May 19 and 36.07 on May 23 [48] - **Inter - period Data**: The inter - period differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, such as the differences between the next - month and the current - month, the current - quarter and the current - month, etc., also had different values [48]

Core Insights - The monitoring of prices for 50 key production materials across nine categories indicates that in mid-May 2025, 24 products saw price increases, 24 experienced declines, and 2 remained stable [1]. Group 1: Price Changes in Key Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices increased by 2.5 yuan per ton (0.1%), while ordinary medium plates decreased by 9.4 yuan per ton (-0.3%) [2]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, aluminum ingot prices rose by 487.9 yuan per ton (2.5%), while zinc ingot prices fell by 75.0 yuan per ton (-0.3%) [2]. - Chemical products showed significant price increases, with pure benzene rising by 520.6 yuan per ton (9.3%) and styrene increasing by 583.3 yuan per ton (8.1%) [2]. - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas prices dropped by 49.2 yuan per ton (-1.1%), while diesel prices increased slightly by 7.9 yuan per ton (0.1%) [2]. - Coal prices generally decreased, with ordinary mixed coal dropping by 21.9 yuan per ton (-4.3%) [2]. Group 2: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, the price of rice increased by 27.9 yuan per ton (0.7%), while the price of soybeans rose by 50.2 yuan per ton (1.2%) [3]. - Fertilizer prices showed mixed results, with urea increasing by 19.9 yuan per ton (1.0%), while compound fertilizer prices fell by 12.1 yuan per ton (-0.4%) [3]. - The price of natural rubber rose by 289.6 yuan per ton (2.0%), indicating a positive trend in the forestry sector [3]. Group 3: Monitoring Methodology and Scope - The price monitoring encompasses over 2,000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [6]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, as well as inquiries via phone, instant messaging, and email [7]. - The price changes are categorized based on percentage fluctuations, with a total of 50 products monitored across nine categories [8].

盖色金属数据日报 | 2025/05/23 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | 【铁矿石】产业定价为主 目前的综合关税仍然处于50%左右的高位。基于美国贸易战反复的行为下,暂时仅看黑色板块的反弹。目前阶段市场确实需 要考虑旺季结束后,钢材表需见顶回落,高铁水下库存的情况。本期铁水出现延续小幅下滑,但整体仍处于高位,钢厂利 不错的情况下,短期想要看到铁水的快速下滑是比较困难的。预期高铁水在5月份可以持续,到港稳定的情况下,港口库存 处于窄幅波动。不考虑限产因素的话,5月份炉料端并不会有额外的故事可以讲,铁矿依然处于震荡。5月之后,若钢材基 市场需要钢厂的自发性减产行为出现,那钢厂的利润的收缩则是必要条件,个人更偏向于材弱于矿。 【钢材】周度数据持稳,重点关注煤炭何时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices fell below $3300 due to factors such as the easing of geopolitical tensions, the alleviation of panic in the US and Japanese bond markets, and better - than - expected US economic data. Short - term market volatility is high, and there is a risk of correction, but the long - term view is bullish [1][13]. - For treasury bond futures, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and they are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to directly implement this strategy. It is advisable to go long in the medium - term but choose the right time [2][15]. - The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term as US business confidence improved in May, but caution is still needed as the US economic trend remains unchanged [20]. - US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and the pressure from long - term interest rates [27]. - For various commodities, different trends are expected. For example, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term; corn prices are expected to rise; copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term; etc. [4][43][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Japan's core CPI in April rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the national CPI rose 3.6% year - on - year. The US 5 - month manufacturing and service PMI rebounded more than expected. Gold prices fell below $3300 due to multiple factors. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of correction, while the long - term view is bullish [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation and a 154.5 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. In the short - term, treasury bond futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to go long [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - US business confidence improved in May, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize. The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term [18][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - As of the end of March, loans to high - tech SMEs have grown at a rate of over 20% for three consecutive years. The North - Star 50 index's decline may signal a return to value for high - dividend and blue - chip assets. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [22][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 5 - month service and manufacturing PMI were better than expected. If tariffs decline, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean exports were in line with expectations. Rain may slow down the sowing progress but benefit the sown soybeans. The price of domestic imported soybeans remained stable, and the spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [28][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Domestic cotton yarn prices rose, but demand followed up slowly. China's textile and clothing exports in April increased year - on - year. Cotton commercial inventory decreased rapidly, and there may be a supply shortage in the later stage. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic about Zhengzhou cotton futures and pay attention to inventory and trade negotiations [31][34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Colombia imposed anti - dumping measures on Chinese welded pipes. Global crude steel production in April decreased year - on - year. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the decline rate slowed down. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to hold a light - position and wait and use a hedging strategy for spot [36][38]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate decreased, and inventory changed little. The starch sugar production rate increased. It is expected that the CS07 - C07 spread will remain in a low - level oscillation [40][41]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Heavy rain warnings were issued in some areas. North port corn inventory decreased significantly. Some hedging positions left the market, and the supply in the spot market is expected to increase. Corn prices are expected to rise [42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Wens Co., Ltd. will continue its share - repurchase plan. The pig futures market is mainly trading based on long - term production capacity and short - term de - stocking speed. It is recommended to take profit on short positions [44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru plans to set up a mining fund, and a new copper - gold porphyry system was discovered in Argentina. China's copper industry index decreased slightly. Copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [46][48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of scrap batteries decreased, and the lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and look for low - buying opportunities in the medium - term [51][52]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc spread was at a discount. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, and the medium - term view is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [53][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased in April. The average spot price of polysilicon decreased. It is recommended to focus on positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [56][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project is about to be put into operation. The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In March 2025, the global refined nickel supply was in surplus. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of high - nickel iron was active. It is expected that the main operating range of Shanghai nickel futures will be between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. Short - term band trading and medium - term long - buying opportunities can be considered [61][62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwean lithium exporters are seeking to postpone the export tax. The supply of lithium carbonate is in surplus, and the cost support is weakening. The market is expected to remain unstable until the spot and downstream orders improve [63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG production increased week - on - week, and port inventory decreased. The domestic LPG price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [66][68]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating in a narrow range. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is likely to be under pressure [69][70]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. European natural gas inventory is rising rapidly. The price of US natural gas is expected to oscillate upwards [71][73]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose steadily. The supply of caustic soda is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The impact of alumina price increase on caustic soda is indirect, and it is difficult to drive a significant increase in the caustic soda market [75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp decreased slightly. The pulp market is expected to oscillate [77][78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly. The PVC market is expected to oscillate [79]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea production rate increased week - on - week. The urea market is in a weak state. Urea prices are expected to oscillate, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [80][82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased slightly. The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate at a low level following the cost [83][85]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash decreased slightly. The soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations. In the short - term, plant maintenance may support the price, while in the medium - term, it is advisable to go short on rallies [86]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The glass futures price is weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level range. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Maersk adjusted its shipping route. The container freight rate on the European line rebounded. The short - term view is that the market will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on pullbacks [89].

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（5.22） | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the implementation of the "two new" policies. Shanghai has introduced a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures to promote the replacement of old consumer goods, support automobile and home appliance consumption, and offer subsidies for purchasing new digital products [1]. - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the export - related policy restrictions in the logistics industry. The EU plans to charge fees on small parcels entering the EU, most of which are from China [1]. - The prices of some upstream products are fluctuating. Egg prices are oscillating, aluminum prices are rising, while glass and rubber prices are falling in the short - term [2]. - In the mid - stream, the PTA and asphalt开工率 have increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased [3]. - In the downstream, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have slightly declined recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Agriculture**: Egg prices have been oscillating recently [2]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Aluminum prices have been rising continuously [2]. - **Black metals**: Glass and rubber prices have declined in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Mid - stream - **Chemical industry**: The PTA开工率 has increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased recently [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt开工率 has been increasing continuously recently [3]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service industry**: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. 3.4 Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have slightly declined recently [5]. 3.5 Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of multiple industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry have changed. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry has decreased from 78.86 last week to 63.16 this week [52]. 3.6 Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various products in different industries have changed. For example, the spot price of PTA has increased by 1.48% to 4986.3 yuan/ton on May 21, while the spot price of WTI crude oil has decreased by 2.58% to 62.0 dollars/barrel [53].

Group 1: Market Overview - On May 21, among black commodity futures, only iron ore and hot-rolled coils closed higher. Rebar closed at 3061 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; hot-rolled coil's main contract closed at 3211 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; iron ore's main contract closed at 728.5 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Demand - Terminal real estate investment continues to decline, and steel-using indicators remain weak, dragging down the sentiment of black commodities. Last week, steel blast furnace maintenance increased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly. However, considering the profitability of long-process steel, the short-term production reduction space is limited, and there is still support for the actual demand of iron ore. Overall, the demand for iron ore is in a "near-strong, far-weak" pattern, with limited directional drive for the market [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Supply - Mysteel data shows that the latest total iron ore shipments were 33.478 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.188 million tons. Overseas shipments have significantly rebounded, which may increase the supply pressure of iron ore. However, the recent arrival volume is relatively low, and the inventory of imported iron ore at Chinese ports is still decreasing. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 146.2763 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.5825 million tons. In the short term, the low port inventory supports the iron ore price, and the negative impact of the loosening supply on the market is expected to take time to transmit [1]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply-demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot-rolled and rebar [1]. - Hot-rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high-level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply-demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1]. Group 5: Summary - Currently, the supply-demand pattern of iron ore has not significantly deteriorated, and the downside space of the market is limited. The positive macro sentiment has been released, and the iron ore futures price is in a volatile consolidation. Iron ore currently has strong rigid demand, and although the pig iron output has declined, it is still at a high level. The supply-demand contradiction may gradually accumulate in the future. Pay attention to short-selling opportunities after the short-term rebound ends [1].