银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五受贸易进展不确定性和地缘冲突的影响伦敦金下破 3280 美元后 | | 研究员：王伟 | 持续反弹，最终收涨 0.63%，报 3326.46 美元/盎司。但周末中美经贸高层宣布会谈取得 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 了实质性进展，伦敦金今晨跳空低开；现货白银周五收涨 0.84%，报 32.72 美元/盎司。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 790.74 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.88%， | | 报 | 8221 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数回吐前日部分涨幅，收跌 0.3%，报 100.339。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

2025年05月11日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 11 日 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 观点与策略 | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 2 | | 工业硅：西南复产，基本面弱势 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单故事 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷，偏弱震荡 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：基本面逻辑或将镍价震荡区间收敛，市场消息扰动盘面情绪。首先，印尼高品位镍矿偏 紧，溢价边际上行 1-2 美金至 26-27 美金/湿吨，同比增加 15-16 美金。同时考虑到补库需求的影响，精 炼镍过剩预期下的短期累库不及预期，库存边际小幅去化，再叠加矿端推升一体化火法成本，镍价下方或 仍有托底。其次，5 月 9 日市场有消 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strong performance of Shandong's capital market, with 307 out of 309 listed companies reporting their 2024 results, showcasing resilience in a complex economic environment [1] - Total operating revenue for Shandong listed companies exceeded 2.95 trillion yuan, maintaining a robust profit level, with 244 companies achieving positive profits, representing nearly 80% [1][3] - The number of companies with over 1 billion yuan in net profit increased, with 140 companies achieving this milestone, indicating effective transformation of old and new driving forces [1][3] Group 2 - The "thousand billion revenue" group expanded to 7 companies, contributing a total of 1.39 trillion yuan in revenue, accounting for 47.2% of the total revenue of Shandong listed companies [2] - Notable companies in this group include Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, and Wanhu Chemical, with two technology firms, Inspur Information and GoerTek, also joining the ranks [2] - The industry distribution of these companies reflects the effectiveness of Shandong's "Ten Strong Industries" strategy, with representation from high-end manufacturing, energy and chemicals, and information technology [2] Group 3 - The overall profit of Shandong listed companies reached 156.75 billion yuan in 2024, with four companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in net profit, including Haier Smart Home and Yanzhou Coal Mining [3] - Traditional companies like Qingdao Beer and Hualu Hengsheng have revitalized their operations through smart upgrades, with Qingdao Beer achieving over 20% of its revenue from high-end products [3] - Emerging companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Jereh Holdings have demonstrated strong profitability in niche sectors like optical modules and oil and gas equipment [3] Group 4 - Four cities in Shandong, including Jinan, Zaozhuang, Jining, and Weifang, have added new companies to the A-share market, showcasing a trend of "multi-point breakthroughs and distinct characteristics" [4] - New entrants include Zhongchuang Co., focusing on middleware for various industries, and Tengda Technology, specializing in stainless steel fasteners [4] - The expansion of A-share listings across all 16 cities in Shandong indicates a comprehensive coverage and a shift towards innovation-driven core competitiveness [4]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12705 | -5 06-07月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -55 | -10 -10446 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -10366 | 1443 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 70897 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 159685 | -2466 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13700 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 515 | 5 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.28 | -0.05 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 8559.43 | 661.27 进口数量:镍铁(月,万吨) ...

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2505 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,570 yuan/ton and closed at 124,630 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 101,917 lots, and the open interest was 67,940 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, closing with a small yang - yin line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line before the holiday. The spot market of electrolytic nickel had sluggish trading recently. Attention should be paid to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 450 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased slightly. After the holiday, the purchasing intention of downstream customers recovered, and merchants also had a certain intention to replenish stocks. The overall performance of refined nickel spot trading was okay, and the premium was basically stable compared to before the holiday, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,125 (- 183.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 (- 336) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Variety Strategy - Recently, the premium of refined nickel spot has been slowly declining, and the support of the premium has weakened. Coupled with the top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line, it is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is mainly range - bound; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,680 yuan/ton and closed at 12,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,113 lots, and the open interest was 89,353 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel mainly fluctuated throughout the day, showing a slightly stronger trend in the afternoon, closing with a small yang line. The trading volume of the 06 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly, and there was still short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted prices unchanged compared to the previous trading day. Affected by the weak market, market confidence was still low. Some downstream enterprises made low - price restocking actions, and most spot merchants maintained a wait - and - see attitude. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was flat compared to the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 415 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 9.50 yuan/nickel point to 959.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Due to the continuous decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has been continuously weakening. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side operation is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/24 | -217.88 | -833.44 | 140 | -33 | 182300 | 31700 | | 2025/04/25 | -150.12 | -851.44 | 140 | -35 | 180050 | 29575 | | 2025/04/28 | -52.89 | -707.36 | 140 | -36 | 179325 | 29525 | | 2025/04/29 | -65.03 | -746.91 | 140 | -35 | 177550 | 31125 | | 2025/04/30 | -4.26 | -777.42 | 140 | -35 | 175275 | 31000 | | 变化 | 60.77 | -30.51 | 0 | 0 | -2275 | -125 | 本周锌价格重心反弹后宽幅震荡，关税情绪改善。供应端，本周国内T ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices rebounded after an over - decline and returned to the oscillation range. In May, the price may fluctuate between 118,000 - 128,000 yuan. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For options, selling deep out - of - the - money options in the range is advised [6][7][8]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to decline with oscillations. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Nickel - In April, nickel prices experienced a roller - coaster ride. LME nickel prices dropped 14.5% in 4 trading days due to US tariffs. Domestic nickel prices had a gap - down due to the Tomb - sweeping Festival, but then rebounded. The rebound was due to its large elasticity, the implementation of Indonesia's new policy increasing production costs, and the decline in MHP output [4]. - In early April, domestic nickel supply was tight, with Jinchuan nickel premiums rising above 3,000 yuan/ton and import losses narrowing. However, after mid - April, spot demand weakened. In May, nickel ore shipments from Indonesia and the Philippines may increase, and downstream prices may decline, leading to a price game between upstream and downstream. Pure nickel supply is expected to increase slightly in May, while demand may decline slightly but still show a stable - to - rising trend due to the peak season [5]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - In April, stainless steel prices fell after nickel prices dropped. The decline was less than that of nickel. The procurement price of NPI fell below 1,000 yuan/nickel point, and the cost support for stainless steel in May moved down. On the demand side, tariffs may affect exports, and the export production schedule of white goods may decline after May. On the supply side, some large steel mills reduced production or switched production in April, and partial复产 is expected in May [11]. 3.2 Market and Raw Materials 3.2.1 Pure Nickel Market - As of April 25, global visible nickel inventories decreased by 1,096 tons compared to the end of March. LME inventories increased by 3,546 tons, while SHFE inventories decreased by 7,338 tons. Domestic spot imports had a reduced loss, and the spot market premium strengthened. China's refined nickel imports increased significantly in January and then returned to normal levels. Exports were mainly to Asian countries and regions. In April, net exports were expected to decrease further [16]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Market - After the decline in nickel prices in April, stainless steel prices also fell. The NPI procurement price dropped, and the cost support for stainless steel in May moved down. Stainless steel prices oscillated downward in the game between production cuts by steel mills and tariff impacts [22]. 3.2.3 Indonesia's Nickel Policy - Indonesia's new nickel policy took effect on April 26, 2025. The nickel ore royalty rate increased from 10% to 14% (for nickel prices below $18,000), and the ice - nickel royalty rate increased from 2% to 3.5%. The new policy increased the production cost of NPI and high - grade nickel ice, but some smelters are still in the tax - exemption period. The implementation of the policy may lead to a loosening of nickel ore prices in May if the annual quota approval does not change significantly [23][24]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - In May, nickel iron prices fell, and nickel iron plants faced production pressure and may cut production to force nickel ore prices down. China and Indonesia's combined nickel iron production from January to March increased by 20% year - on - year, with Indonesia's production increasing by 25%. In April, Indonesia's nickel iron production increased slightly [36]. 3.2.5 Chromium - based Raw Materials Market - Chromium ore prices have been rising for 2 months, and the cost support for high - carbon ferrochrome has increased. With high stainless steel production schedules, the demand for ferrochrome from steel mills is strong, leading to price increases. In April, the long - term procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group for May increased by 500 yuan compared to the previous month [43]. 3.2.6 Nickel Sulfate Market - For ternary cathode factories with a high export proportion, orders from South Korea decreased in April. Ternary cathode factories focusing on the domestic market were less affected. Nickel sulfate prices have been slightly declining since April, indicating weak demand [55]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.3.1 Pure Nickel - Overseas nickel companies' Q1 reports showed that Vale's nickel production increased, while Norilsk Nickel's production decreased slightly. SMM statistics showed that China's refined nickel production from January to March increased by 26% year - on - year, and it is expected to remain stable in April. In May, supply is expected to remain high, while demand may decline after June. The domestic refined nickel market is in surplus, and the surplus has been transferred to LME inventories. However, with the recovery of domestic demand, imports are expected to increase [60][61]. 3.3.2 Stainless Steel - The market is worried about tariffs, which has led to a decline in market confidence. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. Domestically, policies aim to boost consumption and expand domestic demand. From January to April 2024, the combined stainless steel production of China and Indonesia increased by 11% year - on - year. Currently, some steel mills have production reduction plans, but overall production remains high. The demand for stainless steel is the key factor affecting the market, and a lack of demand may lead to a negative feedback loop [68][83]. 3.3.3 New Energy Vehicles - From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 20% year - on - year but decreased by 11% month - on - month. The global new energy vehicle sales from January to February 2025 increased by 33.7% year - on - year. The growth rate in Europe and the US has slowed down. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to March increased by 43% year - on - year. After April, the overseas new energy vehicle market may be affected by the trade war, and high cobalt prices may suppress the demand for ternary batteries [87][96]. 3.3.4 Differentiation of Primary Nickel and Pure Nickel Supply - Demand - In April, the supply - demand of refined nickel in China remained basically unchanged, and inventories increased slowly. The WBMS report showed a global refined nickel supply surplus of 0.83 million tons from January to February 2025. After May, supply will remain high, while demand may decline from the peak season to the off - season. Nickel prices may fluctuate between 118,000 - 128,000 yuan [110].

Group 1 - The "Zhejiang Going Global" service alliance was launched to explore new trade paths between Zhejiang and Middle Eastern countries, with over 200 participants from various sectors [1][2] - Since the Belt and Road Initiative, trade between Zhejiang and the Middle East has increased from 204.2 billion yuan in 2013 to 591.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 10% [1] - Key sectors for Zhejiang exports to the Middle East include machinery, new energy vehicles, and textiles, while the region exports oil and dates to Zhejiang [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang enterprises are establishing bilateral cooperation in the Middle East, with notable projects including JinkoSolar's 10GW battery project in Saudi Arabia and Chint Group's 1800MW solar project in the UAE [2] - The local representatives from the Middle East highlighted the ongoing infrastructure upgrades and renewable energy transitions, seeking collaboration with Zhejiang in smart cities and photovoltaic technology [2] - The "Zhejiang Going Global" service alliance aims to provide integrated services in finance, law, and logistics to support companies in market expansion and risk management [2] Group 3 - The Zhejiang Provincial Council for the Promotion of International Trade plans to lead a delegation to Saudi Arabia and Turkey in late May to facilitate industrial cooperation and market entry [3]