作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数据 才一点风吹草动，A股又如惊弓之鸟。 10月14日，国内股市再度巨震，A股沪深创三大指数高开低走，收盘分别收跌0.62%、2.54%和3.99%。全市场成交额2.6万亿元，较前一交易日增量2224亿 元，超3500股下跌。 板块表现上，半导体、CPO、机器人等近期热门赛道全线大跌；而银行、保险、公用事业、食品饮料等传统板块明显逆势上涨，呈现极为明显的"高低 切"分化行情。 同时，今天的黄金白银期货价格在尾盘时段也出现了显著巨震，就连美股几大指数的夜盘也出现了集体大幅回落。 01 剧烈分化 盘面来看，今天半导体板块集体下跌，有高达179.32亿主力资金净流出且远超其他板块。其中，燕东微、芯源微跌超11%，华海清科、金海通跌超10%， 闻泰科技、通富微电、先锋精科等多股跟跌。还带动了CPO概念、光通信模块股走低，新易盛、德明利、中际旭创等核心龙头均跌超8%。 | | | 10月14日A股极块跌幅10P15 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名称 | 涨幅%1 | 主力净额 | 成交额 | | 1 | 能源会展 | -5.0 ...

细分方向看，行业主题ETF流入较多的方向主要集中在周期(有色)、大金融(非银、银行)、自主可控(电子、军工、计算机)、先进制造(新能源、医药)、消 费，流出方向主要集中在地产、通信、自由现金流、机械设备、传媒、化工。 兴业证券发布研报称，10月13日，股票型ETF净流入153.9亿元，其中宽基ETF净流出30.7亿元，风格策略&行业主题ETF净流入184.7亿元。宽基ETF中， 沪深300流入较多；风格策略&行业主题ETF中，周期、金融地产、制造流入较多。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 10月13日，股票型ETF净流入153.9亿元，其中宽基ETF净流出30.7亿元，风格策略&行业主题ETF净流入184.7亿元。 细分方向看，行业主题ETF中，流入较多的方向主要集中在周期(有色)、大金融(非银、银行)、自主可控(电子、军工、计算机)、先进制造(新能源、医 药)、消费，流出方向主要集中在地产、通信、自由现金流、机械设备、传媒、化工。 宽基ETF中，沪深300流入较多，科创板、中证A500、中证1000流出较多。 风格策略&行业主题ETF中，周期、金融地产、制造流入较多。 风险提示 因数据不完备导致计算结果与实际结果存 ...

种种迹象似乎都在显示，市场的交易情绪不再平静。 剧烈分化 01 作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 才一点风吹草动， A股又如惊弓之鸟。 10月14日，国内股市再度巨震，A股沪深创三大指数高开低走，收盘分别收跌0.62%、2.54%和3.99%。全市场成交 额2.6万亿元，较前一交易日增量2224亿元，超3500股下跌。 板块表现上，半导体、 CPO、机器人等近期热门赛道全线大跌；而银行、保险、公用事业、食品饮料等传统板块明显 逆势上涨，呈现极为明显的"高低切"分化行情。 同时，今天的黄金白银期货价格在尾盘时段也出现了显著巨震，就连美股几大指数的夜盘也出现了集体大幅回落。 盘面来看， 今天 半导体板块 集体 重挫， 有高达 179.32亿主力资金净流出且远超其他板块 。 其中， 燕东微、芯源 微跌超 11%，华海清科、金海通跌超10%，闻泰科技、通富微电、先锋精科等多股跟跌。 还带动了 CPO概念、光通 信模块股走低 ， 新易盛、德明利、中际旭创等核心龙头均跌超 8%。 | | 名称 | 张幅%1 | 吉力净额 | | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

扫码文末"投小圈" 加入行业交流群 文章来源：国家发展和改革委官网 域重要目标任务和年度重点工作，聚焦有利于实现"双碳"目标、节能降碳潜力大的领域，确定当年具体支持项目范围和要求。 第四条国家发展改革委会同各地方、有关中央单位统筹"硬投资"和"软建设"，制定完善"软建设"相关规划、政策标准等。本专项中央预算内投资支持的项 目立足于推进"软建设"落地见效，建立健全解决实际问题、推动绿色低碳循环发展的长效机制。 本办法所称中央单位是指党中央、国务院有关部门及其派出机构、垂直管理单位、所属事业单位，计划单列企业集团和中央管理企业等。 第五条本专项安排的中央预算内投资资金，根据实际情况采取直接投资、资本金注入、投资补助等方式。 第六条 本专项中央预算内投资应当用于前期手续齐全、具备开工条件的计划新开工或在建项目，不得用于已完工（含试运行）项目。 第二章支持范围和标准 节能降碳中央预算内投资专项管理办法 第一章总则 第一条 为加强和规范中央预算内投资节能降碳项目管理，保障项目顺利实施，切实发挥中央预算内投资效益，根据《中共中央、国务院关于完整准确全 面贯彻新发展理念做好碳达峰碳中和工作的意见》《中共中央、国务院关于加快 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-10-14 A股市场先抑后扬，关注市场预期 市场分析 国内强预期弱现实割裂加剧。国内8月经济压力边际增加，一是中国8月经济数据有所转弱，显现"工业缓、投资弱、 消费淡"等特征；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，美国以及墨西哥、印度等国家纷纷加征关税。为了应对边际 增加的外部压力，国内近期频提稳增长政策。国家发改委表示，经济运行仍存挑战，将适时加力实施宏观政策， 新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元。据海关统计，今年前三季度，我国货物贸易进出口33.61万亿元，同比增长 4%，9月出口（以人民币计价）同比增长8.4%，进口增长7.5%，显示国内进出口仍具韧性。关注政策预期，以及 当下旺季不旺预期的修正可能。10月13日A股低开高走，上证指数跌0.19%，科创50涨1.4%，市场先承压后回暖， 稀土等板块领涨，全天超1600家上涨。 中国关税摩擦加剧。随着11月10日中美关税延后执行又将到期，近期中美关税摩擦有所升级。9月12日美国商务部 将23加中国企业列入实体清单，收紧半导体、AI等领域的出口。9月25日，美国对厨房、家具、重型卡车等多项进 口产品加征关税。作为回应，10月9日中国采 ...

10月14日，国家发改委发布的《节能降碳中央预算内投资专项管理办法》指出， 重点行业领域节能降碳项目。支持电力、钢铁、有色、建材、石化、化工、机械等 重点行业节能降碳改造。支持以工业园区、产业集群为载体整体部署并规模化实施 的节能降碳改造。支持供热、算力等基础设施节能降碳改造。支持中央和国家机关 节能降碳改造。煤炭消费清洁替代项目。支持煤电机组和煤化工项目低碳化改造。 支持食品、烟草、纺织、造纸、印染等行业燃煤锅炉、工业窑炉，实施清洁能源替 代。支持城乡居民采用地热能、生物质能供暖。 | | | 国家发展改革委关于印发《节能降碳 中央预算内投资专项管理办法》的通知 发改环资规〔2025〕1228号 中直管理局，国管局，各省、自治区、直辖市及计划单列市、新疆生产建设兵团发展改革委： 为加强和规范节能降碳专项中央预算内投资管理，高质量推进项目建设，提高资金使用效益，我们制定了《节能降碳中央预算内投资专 项管理办法》，现予印发，请遵照执行。 国家发展改革委 2025年9月19日 节能降碳中央预算内投资专项管理办法 第一章 总则 第一条 为加强和规范中央预算内投资节能降碳项目管理，保障项目顺利实施，切实发挥中央预算内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

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●行情回顾：上周商品市场收涨0.46%，其中贵金属领涨2.47%，有色和 黑色分别上涨1.93%和1.41%，农产品和能化分别下跌0.47%和1.63%。 中美贸易格局再度紧张 商品短期或承压运行 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为锡、铜和焦煤，涨幅分别为 4.1%、3.37%和3.11%；跌幅较大的品种为生猪、鸡蛋和原油，跌幅分别 为8.38%、7.64%和3.71%。 商品市场20日平均波动率出现大幅抬升，其中有色、贵金属和畜产品板 块升波较为明显。 资金方面，全市场规模大幅缩减，各板块资金均为净流出。 大宗商品周度报告 2025年10月13日 ●展望：中美经贸问题再次紧张使得市场避险情绪升温，不过本轮的冲击相 较于4月受到的影响有边际下降。目前特朗普并未明确取消10月韩国APEC 会议的元首会晤，同时中国第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议将于10月下 旬召开，潜在的增量刺激政策预期仍在，短期商品市场或承压运行。 贵金属方面，美国政府停摆所带来的损失和经济数据的不确定性，提升 了贵金属的避险溢价；同时通胀数据维持韧性，且近期美联储官员表态偏 鸽，使得市场降息预期升温，另外央行继续稳定购金，均对贵金属形成支 ...

回顾上周A股市场，节后两个交易日中，指数从上涨转为下跌。上周五市场全天震荡调整，三大指数集 体下跌，沪指跌近1%失守3900点。沪深两市成交额2.52万亿，较上一个交易日缩量1376亿。从行业 看，板块涨跌分化，其中建筑材料、煤炭、纺织服饰等涨幅居前，电子、电力设备、计算机、有色金属 等跌幅居前。 整体来看，本次中美贸易摩擦对市场的影响或弱于4月，主要原因在于：1）市场对中美贸易摩擦反复有 一定程度预期；2）多次TACO（"特朗普总是临阵退缩"）交易使得市场对此类事件的交易幅度愈发不 敏感。考虑到当下整体美国贸易占中国出口比例大幅下降后影响力不如从前，A股调整的催化或更多来 自持续上涨较多后"到了要调整的阶段"，且幅度可能不会特别大。 展望后续，需关注的中美贸易摩擦的持续进展。不过，中国股市的内在逻辑并未转变，关税摩擦引发的 市场调整，可能也是较好的布局窗口期。进入10月，重要会议叠加背景下政策出台概率较大，需关注党 的二十届四中全会（"十五五"规划建议，明年两会定《纲要》）、政治局会议（宏观政策出台）；海外 要关注十月FOMC议息会议，关键经济数据（如CPI、非农就业数据等）的暂缺可能会影响降息决策； 同时 ...