Core Viewpoint - The National Standardization Administration of China has released a draft for mandatory national standards on energy consumption limits for polysilicon products, which will significantly impact the polysilicon industry by enforcing stricter energy consumption standards and potentially leading to a reduction in effective production capacity by approximately 16.4% by the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: New Standards and Their Implications - The new energy consumption standards set limits for polysilicon production at ≤5 kgce/kg for Level 1, 5.5 kgce/kg for Level 2, and 6.4 kgce/kg for Level 3, corresponding to energy consumption of approximately 40.7 kWh/kg-Si, 48.8 kWh/kg-Si, and 52.1 kWh/kg-Si respectively [1]. - Existing polysilicon producers that do not meet the Level 3 standard will be required to rectify their operations, with non-compliance potentially leading to shutdowns [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the implementation of these standards may lead to the elimination of around 30% of polysilicon production capacity, depending on the actual execution of the policy and the technological upgrades undertaken by companies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the announcement of the new standards, polysilicon prices have remained relatively stable, with recent trading around 53,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight weekly decline of 1.73% [2][3]. - The current production profit margins for polysilicon companies are considered favorable, with production rates recovering to 49% and monthly output around 130,000 tons [3][4]. - The downstream market for silicon wafers and battery cells is showing some recovery in profit margins, although caution remains regarding future demand, particularly in the module segment [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations for the polysilicon market indicate limited improvements in the fundamental supply-demand balance, with prices likely to exhibit a range-bound trend [4][5]. - The upcoming dry season in the southwest region may impact production levels, and the market's future direction may depend on new developments regarding "anti-involution" measures [4][5]. - The price dynamics of polysilicon are currently heavily influenced by policy signals, with potential risks of price adjustments if substantial policy measures are not implemented in the near term [5].

Group 1: Glass and Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Glass**: Last week, the macro environment initially drove the glass futures market up, but the market corrected later. Although the spot market had good sales and inventory decreased, some regions still had high intermediate - level inventories. The deep - processing orders improved seasonally but were still weak, and the low operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass did not show peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Track policy implementation and downstream restocking. In the short - term, sentiment drives the market, and track its sustainability. For the medium - term, focus on peak - season demand [3]. - **Rubber**: Near the holiday, capital's risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the macro sentiment of commodities weakened. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500. In the supply side, the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas affect rubber tapping, and the expected increase in supply in the future suppresses raw - material prices. The cost support has weakened. The downstream tire factories have basically completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and it is difficult for natural - rubber futures inventory to significantly decrease. In the demand side, some enterprises still lack goods, and the equipment runs stably to replenish inventory, but the overall sales are not as expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Some enterprises may control production flexibly [1]. Summary by Catalog Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in different regions were stable. Glass 2505 rose 1.13% to 1343, and Glass 2509 rose 1.30% to 1405. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 8.43%. For纯碱, prices in different regions were unchanged.纯碱 2505 rose 0.50% to 1407, and纯碱 2509 rose 0.86% to 1454. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 7.00% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda - ash mining rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly soda - ash production decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 million tons. The float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 million tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80, the soda - ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 million tons, and the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 million tons. The glass - factory soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged at 20.4 [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [3]. Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 0.68% to 14,700 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis decreased by 65. The Thai - standard mixed - rubber price decreased by 1.67% to 14,750 yuan/ton, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 37.72%. The cup - lump price in the international market decreased by 1.16% to 51.05 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price increased by 0.18% to 56.30 [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00% to 15, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 66.67% to 5, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 55.56% to - 20 [1]. - **Production**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 thousand tons, Indonesia's increased by 12.09% to 197.50 thousand tons, and India's decreased by 2.17% to 45.00 thousand tons. China's production decreased by 1.30 to 101.30 thousand tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.66% to 592,275, and the natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.07% to 44,553 [1]. Group 2: Log and Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Log**: The log futures market closed up last Friday. The spot price of the main deliverable log was stable. The inventory increased, and the demand (out - bound volume) slightly increased. The supply of New Zealand logs to Chinese ports decreased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, observe whether the out - bound volume improves. The price below 800 yuan has high "receiving value". In the "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: From the fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The expected large - scale production cuts of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - and low - water periods will occur at the end of October. The supply will reach a peak in October, and the balance is expected to be significantly loose, then narrow in November. The cost increase in the flat - and low - water periods in the west raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward - driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the price may oscillate, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial - silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. Summary by Catalog Log - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices in different contracts rose slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15, the 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20, and the 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44. The total inventory of national coniferous logs increased by 2.72% to 302 million cubic meters, and the daily average out - bound volume increased by 3% to 6.29 million cubic meters [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon were stable. The basis of different types of industrial silicon changed significantly. For example, the basis of East - China oxygen - passing SI5530 decreased by 89.89%. The monthly spreads also had large fluctuations, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 233.33% [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national industrial - silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The national operating rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 million tons [5]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints A weekly industry self - discipline meeting was held to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises plan to cut production. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and some enterprises' low inventory (unequally distributed among enterprises) support the polysilicon price increase. Currently, low - price polysilicon resources are scarce and snapped up, while high - price resources face downstream resistance. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10% to 52,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis increased by 91.74% to - 50. The main - contract price of polysilicon futures decreased by 0.95% to 52,700. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 million tons, and the monthly production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 million tons. The polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [6].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon 11 - contract showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 6.65%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will experience neutral and volatile adjustments [4][5]. - The polysilicon 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will continue to decrease, demand will continue to recover, cost support will remain stable, and the market will experience bearish and volatile adjustments [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The opening price on Monday was 8725 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 9305 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.65% [4]. - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, a 3.71% increase. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. In terms of different downstream sectors, the polysilicon inventory is lower than the historical average, while the organic silicon and aluminum alloy inventories are higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase; the sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; and the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, a 0.84% increase [5]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The opening price on Monday was 53,630 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 52,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.73% [7]. - **Supply**: The production last week was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [7]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer production last week was 13.92 GW, a 0.28% increase; the battery cell production is increasing, and the component production is also increasing. The overall demand is showing a continuous recovery [7][8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease, at a historical low [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports [18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report presents the trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise start - up rates in different regions [20][21][22]. - **Cost**: It shows the cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the production, consumption, import, export, and balance situations [28][31]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the production, price, cost, profit, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products [34][36]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories [54][57][60]. 3. Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience neutral and volatile adjustments next week [77]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience bearish and volatile adjustments next week [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is showing signs of activity, and investors are advised to be cautious of potential disturbances. The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, cost - profit, and other aspects of industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, and provides corresponding investment views and trading strategies [1][9][10][86] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Color and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Metal Prices**: The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals. For example, the current value of the US dollar index is 97.6519, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a weekly increase of 0.03%, and an annual decrease of 9.98%. The current price of industrial silicon is 9305 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.49%, a weekly increase of 6.40%, and an annual decrease of 15.29%. The current price of lithium carbonate is 73960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 3.93%, and an annual decrease of 4.07% [7] 3.2 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 9.47 tons, a decrease of 0.81% compared to the previous week, and the number of open furnaces is 311, an increase of 3 compared to the previous week. Different regions have different production and furnace - opening trends [9] - **Demand**: In the polysilicon segment, the weekly output is 3.13 tons, an increase of 0.32% compared to the previous week. In the organic silicon segment, the DMC weekly output is 4.86 tons, a decrease of 0.61% compared to the previous week [9] - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.20 tons, a decrease of 0.32% compared to the previous week. The industry inventory is 44.26 tons, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the previous week [9] - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9105 yuan, an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous week, and the profit per ton is 149 yuan, an increase of 26 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [9] - **Investment View**: The fundamental pattern continues, and the price is affected by small market rumors. It is expected that the price has a downward pressure. The trading strategy is to be bearish on the single - side market, and attention should be paid to the reduction and resumption of production by large manufacturers and changes in environmental protection policies [9] 3.3 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 3.13 tons, an increase of 0.32% compared to the previous week. The production in different regions remains stable [10] - **Demand**: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 13.56GW, an increase of 1.23% compared to the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.87GW, an increase of 1.93% compared to the previous week [10] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 24.21 tons, an increase of 3.36% compared to the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 23700 tons, an increase of 1.02% compared to the previous week [10] - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41056 yuan, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous week, and the profit per ton is 8195 yuan, a decrease of 86 yuan compared to the previous week [10] - **Macro - factor**: A new national standard for polysilicon energy consumption is being solicited, which is more stringent than the previous version. In the long - term, polysilicon production capacity is in a reduction trend [10] - **Investment View**: It is bullish. Before the policy is fully implemented, there is room for market speculation. The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side market, and attention should be paid to the reduction and resumption of production by large manufacturers and changes in anti - involution policies [10] 3.4 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.04 tons, an increase of 2.00% compared to the previous week. The production in August is 8.52 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the production in September is expected to be 8.67 tons, an increase of 1.75% compared to the previous month [86] - **Import**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate is 1.38 tons, a decrease of 21.77% compared to the previous month. In July, the import volume of lithium concentrate is 57.61 tons, an increase of 34.73% compared to the previous month [86] - **Demand**: In the lithium - iron system, the weekly output of materials is 7.82 tons, a decrease of 0.10% compared to the previous week. In the new energy vehicle segment, the production and sales in August are increasing, and the penetration rate in July is 48.67%, an increase of 2.91pct compared to the previous month [86] - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 13.75 tons, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the previous week. The inventory in the downstream is expected to continue to replenish, which will support the futures price [86] - **Cost - Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external - purchase ore - based lithium extraction is 77345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% compared to the previous week, and the production profit is - 6951 yuan/ton, an increase of 612 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [86] - **Investment View**: It is bullish. Pay attention to whether the market will speculate on supply - side issues. The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side market, and attention should be paid to the reduction of production at the mine end, changes in environmental protection policies, and disturbances from large power companies [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].

Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that rubber prices will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract trading in the range of 15,000 - 16,500. The supply side is affected by the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas, and the expected increase in raw material output in the future suppresses the raw material prices. The cost support has weakened, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, so the natural rubber inventory is unlikely to see a significant reduction. On the demand side, although some enterprises are short of goods, the overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises may control production flexibly. As the holiday approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds increases, and the macro - sentiment of commodities weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan to 14,700 yuan, a decline of 0.68%. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 65 to - 835. - The price of Thai - standard mixed rubber decreased by 250 yuan to 14,750 yuan, a decline of 1.67%. The non - standard price difference decreased by 215 to - 785, a decline of 37.72%. - The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.60 Thai baht per kilogram to 51.05 Thai baht per kilogram, a decline of 1.16%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market increased by 0.10 to 56.30, an increase of 0.18% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to 15, a decline of 50.00%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 to 5, a decline of 66.67%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 to - 20, an increase of 55.56% [1]. Production and Consumption Data - In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons or 1.61% compared with the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons or 12.09%. India's production was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons or 2.17%. China's production was 101,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.66%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 10.2954 million tons, an increase of 859,000 tons or 9.10%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63.01 million pieces, a decrease of 3.64 million pieces or 5.46% [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 10,020 tons to 592,275 tons, a decline of 1.66%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,411 tons to 44,553 tons, a decline of 3.07% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental problem of over - supply still exists. Although the manufacturers' inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and the over - supply still exists compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Glass**: The spot market has good transactions, and the inventory has decreased this week. However, the inventory of some middle - stream enterprises in some regions remains high. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass is continuously low. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. The industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. It is necessary to track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - **Glass**: The price of glass 2505 increased by 15 yuan to 1343 yuan, an increase of 1.13%. The price of glass 2509 increased by 18 yuan to 1405 yuan, an increase of 1.30%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 193, a decline of 8.43%. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan to 1407 yuan, an increase of 0.50%. The price of soda ash 2509 increased by 12 yuan to 1454 yuan, an increase of 0.86%. The 05 basis decreased by 7 to - 107, a decline of 7.00% [3]. Supply - The soda ash mining rate decreased by 2.02 percentage points to 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash decreased by 15,000 tons to 745,700 tons, a decline of 2.02%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 159,500 tons, a decline of 0.47%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 675,000 tons to 60.908 million tons, a decline of 1.10%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 1.7556 million tons, a decline of 2.33%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 614,900 tons, an increase of 10.69% [3]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 0.22%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of sales area was - 6.55%, a decrease of 6.50 percentage points [3]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. The current average daily shipment volume is still below 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan per cubic meter has a high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2511 increased by 3.5 yuan to 805 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.44%. The price of log 2601 increased by 2 yuan to 818.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.24%. The price of log 2603 increased by 1 yuan to 825 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.12%. The price of log 2605 remained unchanged at 828 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15. The 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20. The 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55. The 01 - contract basis decreased by 66.5 to - 68.5 [4]. Import Cost and Shipping - The import theoretical cost was 796.96 yuan, an increase of 0.37 yuan, an increase of 0%. - The number of ships departing from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3 to 44, a decline of 6.38% [4]. Inventory and Demand - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The average daily shipment volume of logs increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 3% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance will gradually become looser. The expectation of large - scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises during the flat - and - low - water period is at the end of October, so the expected surplus in October is more obvious and will narrow again in November. At the same time, the increase in production costs in the southwest during the flat - and - low - water period raises the average industry cost, giving positive sentiment to the market. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will continue to lack upward driving force in the short term and may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 45, a decline of 89.89%. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan. The basis decreased by 97 to - 202, a decline of 380.95%. - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 295, a decline of 57.55% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 35 to - 50, a decline of 233.33%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 to - 390, a decline of 1.30%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 to 5. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 30 to 10, an increase of 150.00% [5]. Fundamental Data - **Production**: The national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, an increase of 47,400 tons or 14.01%. Xinjiang's production was 169,700 tons, an increase of 19,400 tons or 12.91%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons or 41.19%. Sichuan's production was 53,700 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons or 10.72% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The national operating rate was 55.87%, an increase of 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, an increase of 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%. Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, an increase of 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points or 19.83% [5]. - **Downstream Production**: The production of organic silicon DMC was 223,100 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons or 11.66%. The production of polysilicon was 131,700 tons, an increase of 24,900 tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons or 8.32% [5]. Inventory Change - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 0.13 tons to 12.04 tons, a decline of 1.07%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.16 tons to 3.10 tons, an increase of 5.45%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan increased by 0.01 tons to 2.29 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory increased by 0.40 tons to 54.30 tons, an increase of 0.74% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the industry self - discipline meeting was held again to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises have production - cut plans in the future. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and the low inventory of some enterprises (the inventory distribution among enterprises is uneven) provide support for the price increase of polysilicon enterprises. Currently, low - price resources in the polysilicon market are scarce and are being snapped up, while high - price resources still face some resistance from downstream. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 50 yuan to 52,650 yuan, an increase of 0.10%. The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan. The basis of N - type material increased by 555 yuan to - 50, an increase of 91.74% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 505 yuan to 52,700 yuan, a decline of 0.95%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 130 to 120, an increase of 1300.00%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract decreased by 50 to - 2590, a decline of 1.97% [6]. Fundamental Data - **Weekly Data**: The production of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, an increase of 0.04 GW or 0.29%. The production of polysilicon was 3.10 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 0.64%. - **Monthly Data**: The production of polysilicon was 131.7 kilotons, an increase of 24.9 kilotons or 23.31%. The import volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, an increase of 0.03 kilotons or 40.30%. The export volume of polysilicon was 0.22 kilotons, an increase of 0.01 kilotons or 5.96%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 14.92% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of polysilicon decreased by 1.5 kilotons to 20.4 kilotons, a decline of 6.85%. The inventory of silicon wafers increased by 0.32 GW to 16.87 GW, an increase of 1.93%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 7900 hands, an increase of 0.25% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The National Standardization Administration of China has released a draft for mandatory national standards on energy consumption limits for polysilicon products, which will significantly impact the polysilicon industry by enforcing stricter energy consumption standards and potentially leading to a reduction in effective production capacity by approximately 16.4% by the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: New Standards and Their Implications - The new energy consumption standards set limits for polysilicon production at ≤5 kgce/kg for Level 1, 5.5 kgce/kg for Level 2, and 6.4 kgce/kg for Level 3, corresponding to energy consumption of approximately 40.7 kWh/kg-Si, 48.8 kWh/kg-Si, and 52.1 kWh/kg-Si respectively [1]. - Existing polysilicon producers that do not meet the Level 3 standard will be required to rectify their operations, with non-compliance potentially leading to shutdowns [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the implementation of these standards may lead to the elimination of around 30% of polysilicon production capacity, depending on the actual execution of the policy and the technological upgrades undertaken by companies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the announcement of the new standards, polysilicon prices have remained relatively stable, with recent trading around 53,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight weekly decline of 1.73% [2][3]. - The current market sentiment indicates that while there is a cautious optimism regarding the potential for price support due to the new standards, the immediate impact on supply and demand dynamics is expected to be limited [2][4]. - The production capacity of polysilicon companies has seen a recovery, with operational rates reaching 49% and monthly production around 130,000 tons, although there are concerns about potential declines in output during the dry season [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the polysilicon market may experience a period of stability in pricing, with significant improvements in the fundamental market conditions unlikely in the short term [4][5]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" sentiment in the market suggests that while there are expectations for capacity reductions, the actual realization of these changes will be gradual and systematic [3][4]. - The future trajectory of polysilicon prices will heavily depend on the timely implementation of supply-side policies and the clarity of the capacity reduction pathways [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry silicon: Volatility [5] - Polysilicon: Volatility [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose significantly this week, and the polysilicon spot price was firm. In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a higher probability of rising when buying at low prices, and the polysilicon futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [4][11][12] - Different sectors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon industry chain have different price trends and inventory situations. For example, the price of industrial silicon increased, the price of polysilicon futures fell slightly, and the prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [9][10][11] Summary According to the Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 560 yuan/ton to 9305 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - passed 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 increased by 200 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The polysilicon PS2511 contract decreased by 910 yuan/ton to 52700 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Rose Against the Trend, Polysilicon Spot was Firm - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract rose. There were no new furnace start - ups or shutdowns this week. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 units and Sichuan's to about 35 units. The social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons. 9 - 10 months may accumulate about 50,000 tons of inventory, and 11 - 12 months may reduce about 60,000 tons, but the volume is not significant [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 0.61% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,800 tons, a decrease of 3.17% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated and declined. The quotes of first - tier manufacturers' dense materials were 55 yuan/kg, second - and third - tier manufacturers' were 52 yuan/kg, and the new order quote of granular materials increased to 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not fully implemented, but the sales limit started. The inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 204,000 tons. The spot price may remain flat or increase slightly [3][12] - **Silicon Wafers**: Some models stabilized at new quotes. The production schedule in September was 57.5GW, an increase of 1.5GW month - on - month. The inventory was 16.87GW, an increase of 0.32GW. The price is expected to remain stable [14] - **Battery Cells**: The quotes increased further. The production schedule in September was 60GW, an increase of 1.8GW month - on - month. The overseas demand supported the price increase of M10 models, but the new price may be close to the limit for domestic component enterprises [14] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. The inventory was 34.5GW, an increase of 0.4GW. The production schedule in September may decrease by about 1GW. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The reasons for the sharp rise in the market are not core. The cost will increase during the dry season. Buying at low prices has a higher probability of winning, but chasing high prices requires caution [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: The market may still bet on the progress of platform companies in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the 11 - contract rebounds and the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][17] 4. Hot News Sorting - On September 16, the "Energy Consumption Quota per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium" and other national standards solicited opinions, stipulating the energy consumption quota levels of polysilicon per unit product [13][18] - On September 16, GCL Technology announced a placement of 4.736 billion shares to promote the adjustment of polysilicon production capacity [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [20][23][28] - **Organic Silicon**: Includes data such as DMC spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [30][31] - **Polysilicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly gross profits, and factory inventory [33][37] - **Silicon Wafers**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [38][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and overseas sales factory inventory [46][49][51] - **Components**: Includes data such as spot prices, factory inventory, and monthly production [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Neutral for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] - Polysilicon: Short - term range operation for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's fundamentals have little change, with a slight increase in inventory. The recent rise in the industrial silicon futures market is mainly due to capital behavior and news, and there is still pressure above. If there are relevant capacity exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3] - Polysilicon's supply - demand fundamentals are average. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [5][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The 2511 main contract opened at 8,920 yuan/ton and closed at 8,905 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 285,052 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,871 lots, down 25 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). The silicon prices in many regions were stable, and the price of 97 silicon was also stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 18 was 543,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from last week [1] - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was 10,700 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand - based procurement rhythm. Monomer factories had a stronger willingness to hold prices, but price increases were restricted. The domestic DMC market price will remain stable in the short term [2] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated. It opened at 53,200 yuan/ton and closed at 53,205 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading day. The position was 122,834 lots (126,234 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 198,758 lots [4][5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 50.20 - 55.00 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons (up 3.79% month - on - month), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.87GW (up 1.93% month - on - month). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,200 tons (up 3.31% month - on - month), and the silicon wafer output was 13.92GW (up 0.29% month - on - month) [5] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, with only a slight decline in the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers [5][6] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

Company Overview - The report highlights Xizi Clean Energy (西子洁能) as a leading company in the waste heat boiler sector, with a domestic market share exceeding 50% and a cumulative supply of over 450 units, adapting to major global turbine brands like GE and Siemens [10] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with foreign sales accounting for 13.82% of revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.79% [10] Business Segments - Xizi Clean Energy is focusing on the development of molten salt energy storage technology, having participated in multiple demonstration projects, positioning itself as a pioneer in this field [10] - The company is also advancing in the nuclear power sector, with over 20 years of experience and licenses for manufacturing nuclear equipment, aiming to expand into third and fourth generation nuclear power and controlled nuclear fusion [10] - The report mentions the company's strategic investment in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), which have high efficiency and versatility in fuel usage, enhancing its renewable energy ecosystem [10] Financial Projections - The report projects Xizi Clean Energy's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 443 million, 510 million, and 604 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 24, and 20 times [3] - A comparative analysis with similar companies indicates an average PE of 33 times for 2025, leading to an "Outperform" rating for Xizi Clean Energy [3] Industry Insights - The report discusses new national standards for polysilicon energy consumption, tightening the energy consumption limits significantly, which may lead to the forced shutdown or consolidation of high-energy-consuming production capacities [9][12] - The new standards are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities, with a 12-month transition period for companies to comply [12] - The report suggests that polysilicon prices may remain strong due to the need for companies to achieve breakeven at lower operating rates, and it recommends monitoring companies like GCL-Poly Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. [12]