Report Information - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Quotes - **Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal contracts such as M2601, M2603, and M2511 showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the M2601 contract closed at 2994, up 20 points or 0.67% [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market pulled back, with the main contract at 1080 cents. After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the CBOT soybean futures contract pulled back significantly [6]. 1.2 Market Analysis - **International Situation**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, a partial framework agreement was reached, and subsequent additional tariffs were cancelled. Regarding US soybean purchases, Trump said that China would start purchasing, but China has not made a clear response. The agreement does not specify the amount of US soybean imports, and it is more likely to be a spontaneous market purchase after comparing with Brazilian soybeans, which is weaker than expected [6]. - **South American Situation**: In South America, the new - season soybeans in Brazil are being sown normally and orderly, with the progress faster than last year and few topics [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean meal rebounded significantly today. Previously, it was weak due to the expectation of US soybean imports. Since the agreement was less than expected, it rebounded. If it is only a spontaneous market purchase behavior in the future, the support below soybean meal is still obvious. Pay attention to the clear conclusion of future tariffs [6]. 2. Industry News - **US Crop Harvest Progress**: As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest is expected to be 84% complete, and the corn harvest is 72% complete. Analysts' forecasts for the US harvest progress range from 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest progress was 89%, and the corn harvest progress was 81% [9]. - **Brazilian Soybean and Soybean Meal Exports**: Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's forecast of 7.34 million tons. Brazilian soybean meal exports in October are expected to reach 2.08 million tons, down from 2.09 million tons the previous week [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the M01 contract, the spread between M1 - 5, the spread between M5 - 9, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2960 - 3020. The US soybean market is affected by the preliminary Sino - US agreement and technical buying, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend, but high imports in October and spot price discounts suppress the market, likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The US soybean market is affected by trade negotiation signals and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean market is supported by the US soybean trend and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports, but high imports and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt There is no specific content provided for the daily prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean weather. The US soybean market will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills declined from a high level in October. The soybean meal market will return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continued to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations will keep the soybean meal market oscillating in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2940, with a basis of - 54, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 3, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Transaction Data**: The report provides the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from October 22 to 30, as well as the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from October 22 to 30 [16][18]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: It shows the warehouse receipt data of soybeans and soybean meal from October 21 to 30, including changes compared to the previous day [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: The sowing and growth progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), and Brazil (2024/25) are presented, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, etc. [34][35][39]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, and exports [43]. - **Other Market Conditions**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from a high level in October but increased year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [44][46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics. The current pattern of strong meal and weak oil in the beans and oils market persists [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The consensus on expanding agricultural product imports reached in the Sino - US leaders' meeting has boosted short - term sentiment. However, the market is still in a situation of "strong supply and weak demand". Only when trade policy breakthroughs resonate with seasonal demand recovery can the market break free from this situation. The futures price of soybean meal is oscillating strongly but faces pressure at the upper limit of the range [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The main pressure on the palm oil market comes from the expected 10% year - on - year increase in Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 to about 56 - 57 million tons, and weak exports of Malaysian palm oil. The optimistic expectations from Sino - US negotiations cannot offset the industrial chain pressure. The futures price of palm oil has fallen below the lower limit of the previous oscillating range and will continue to be weak [7] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the corn market, in the US, as the corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the estimated corn yield this year is lower than the previous USDA forecast, and the expectation of a Sino - US trade agreement boosts the market. In China, in the Northeast, the corn yield has increased significantly, but the purchase price has slightly decreased with the increase in new grain supply. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market supply has slightly declined due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and feed enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode. The corn futures price has weakened again after a slight rebound, maintaining a low - level volatile consolidation [2]. - For the corn starch market, the increase in new - season corn supply weakens the cost support for corn starch, and the substitution advantage of tapioca starch squeezes the market demand. However, the industry's operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years, and the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased. The starch market fluctuates synchronously with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract of domestic yellow corn is 2111 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 81914 hands, down 5324 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 63966 hands; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 434.5 cents/bushel, up 2.75 cents [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2419 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 54064 hands, up 4667 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 12504 hands; the main - contract CS - C spread is 337 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn: The total weekly position is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2242.16 yuan/ton, down 0.59 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1974.15 yuan/ton, up 0.3 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 83 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China are 427.11 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares respectively, and the predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, 32 million tons respectively, with no changes [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: 480,000 tons in southern ports, 1.04 million tons in northern ports, 2.334 million tons in deep - processing enterprises, up 298,000 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: 1.128 million tons, down 12,000 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.05%, a monthly decline of 0.97%, and a year - on - year increase of 36.89% [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output is 3.1287 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: 120 yuan/ton in Shandong, 119 yuan/ton in Hebei, 105 yuan/ton in Jilin [2]. - Operating rate: 61.67% for alcohol enterprises, 58.86% for starch enterprises, up 3.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.48%, down 0.43 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.25%, up 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.24%, up 0.74 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.25%, up 0.75 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn in the week ending October 23, 2025, to be between 1.1 million and 2.1 million tons [2]. - As of October 27, the planting progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's Paraná state is 98%, up from 94% last week [2]. 3.9 Key Focus - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of Sino-US talks, the US market rose strongly with high policy uncertainty. Domestic short - position funds reduced positions to avoid risks. The right to buy ships in China is still poor, and the domestic product valuation is low. With the expectation of crush margin repair, the short - term futures market is expected to continue the rebound trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policies and South American weather changes [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season to be 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may have room for downward adjustment. Exports depend on Sino - US policies. According to CONAB data, as of October 25, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week and 37.7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 42.5%. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have dropped to a low level [8]. Price and Spread - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On October 29, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 81, down 34; in Rizhao it was 31, down 34; in Tianjin it was 51; in Dongguan it was - 19; in Zhanjiang it increased by 6; in Fangcheng it increased by 6. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 60, up 16. The MJ - 5 was 166, down 14, and the RM1 - 5 was - 15 [6]. - **Price Spread**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures price spread (Wangli) was 596, up 17. The price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 900, and the current value was 464, down 9 [7]. Other Data - **Exchange Rate and Crush Margin**: The US dollar - RMB exchange rate and the futures crush margin were - 240.00 yuan/ton, down 5 [7]. - **Inventory and Processing**: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mill soybean inventory, national major oil mill soybean meal inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mill soybean crushing volume, and national major oil mill operating rate are presented in the form of historical data comparison charts [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external market pressure and long - term focus on US cotton production and export. The domestic cotton market has low initial inventory but new supply. Short - term cotton price increase is limited, while long - term is optimistic [2] - The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season. Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance. Supply remains loose, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,620 yuan/ton yesterday, up 55 yuan/ton (+0.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In September, Bangladesh imported about 152,000 tons of cotton, a 14.4% increase from August and 5.9% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market's supply - demand is expected to be loose, with short - term external market pressure due to supply and demand issues. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price increase is limited by hedging and weak demand, while long - term is affected by low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, there is a possibility of a callback; long - term, cotton prices are optimistic [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5720 yuan/ton, unchanged. It is estimated that in mid - October in Brazil's central - southern region, sugarcane crushing will be 33.42 million tons (down 1.5% year - on - year), sugar production 2.47 million tons (up 0.6% year - on - year), and ethanol production 1.973 billion liters (down 3.1% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the global sugar market may be in a bear cycle. The Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak external market [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, follow the weak external market; pay attention to the support at around 5400 [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5242 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: Shandong's Chilean silver star coniferous pulp price was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian needle pulp price was 4985 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. Imported wood pulp spot prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [5][6] Market Analysis - The pulp market's supply remains loose, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The traditional peak season has not seen strong demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the fourth - quarter peak season [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the domestic fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal remains at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Future focuses include the Sino - US negotiation situation and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] - For the corn market, on the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has recovered slightly in the Northeast region due to the slightly stronger price, while in the North China region, the risk of bad grain has decreased, and the shipment rhythm of moist grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of various channels is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 粕类 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2969 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2373 yuan/ton, a change of - 23 yuan/ton (- 0.96%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 41, a change of + 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 - 39, a change of + 6; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 29, a change of - 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 207, a change of + 3 [1] - **Market Information**: As of last Thursday, the planting rate of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans reached 36% of the expected sown area, the same as last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to be 7 million tons. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.061 million tons [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, with sufficient arrivals and high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal. Future focuses are on Sino - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2116 yuan/ton, a change of - 7 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2427 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton (+ 0.12%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 24, a change of + 7; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 123, a change of - 3 [4] - **Market Information**: As of October 25, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil in 2025/26 was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast has recovered slightly, and the shipment of moist grain in North China has slowed down. On the demand side, inventory is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

Group 1 - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures experienced a slight increase as traders await the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States scheduled for Thursday [1] Group 2 - According to external media forecasts, U.S. net wheat export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to range between 350,000 to 600,000 tons by the week ending October 23, 2025 [2] - The European Commission reported that as of October 26, the EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 6.25 million tons, compared to 7.92 million tons during the same period last year [2] - In Brazil's Paraná state, stable weather conditions have led to positive progress in the harvesting of oats, canola, barley, and wheat, with oat harvesting nearing completion [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends. For example, natural rubber prices have risen significantly due to macro - sentiment, while synthetic rubber prices have hit a new low this year due to falling raw material prices. The prices of other products such as oils and fats, protein meals, and corn are also affected by factors such as trade relations, supply and demand, and weather [1][15]. - Different products have different outlooks. Some products may have short - term upward potential but also face risks, while others are expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term [14][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Concerned about changes in trade relations, the market sentiment remains weak. Affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, the expected meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and the supply and demand situation of soybeans and palm oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil are expected to be in a weak and volatile state [7]. - **Protein Meals**: China may purchase US soybeans, and the two types of meals may fluctuate at a high level. International trade relations and domestic supply and demand, as well as factors such as Brazilian soybean sowing progress and the impact of La Nina, affect the price of protein meals [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market fluctuates. Although there has been a short - term rebound, factors such as high yields in Northeast China and low - quality grain pressure in North China may lead to downward price pressure in the future [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand both decrease, and pig prices fluctuate. In the short term, secondary fattening affects the supply, and in the long term, the reduction of sow production capacity will gradually relieve the supply pressure [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by macro - sentiment, rubber prices have risen significantly again. It is a short - term oversold rebound. The impact of previous reserve sales has been digested, and the price may continue to rise in the short term but needs continuous macro - support [14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw materials continue to fall, and the market hits a new low this year. High production and slow growth in demand lead to high inventory, and although there may be a bottom - out rebound, there is also a risk of further decline [16]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices fluctuate slightly on the strong side. Factors such as the reduction of the expected increase in production in Xinjiang and the high purchase price of cottonseed have pushed up the price. However, there is a risk of correction after the possible macro - positive factors are digested [16]. - **Sugar**: The expectation of a subsequent decrease in imports drives the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar. Internationally, the supply of sugar is expected to increase, and the domestic market may rebound in the short term but is bearish in the medium - to - long term [17]. - **Pulp**: The financial trading atmosphere drives the rise of pulp futures, but the spot and futures are still separated. The supply and demand situation is weak, and the price increase space is limited, but attention should be paid to the impact of changes in waste pulp [18]. - **Offset Paper**: The offset paper fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply pressure exists, the distributor's sales pressure is high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. Enterprises are more willing to stabilize prices [19]. - **Logs**: Negative factors are fermenting, and the valuation is low. Affected by factors such as concentrated port arrivals and weak sales of integrated materials, the market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [22]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data of various varieties, including prices, production, and inventory, but does not provide a detailed analysis of these data in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of commodities are presented. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, while the agricultural product index has a decline of 0.24% on the day, a 0.03% increase in the past 5 days, a 1.55% decline in the past month, and a 2.74% decline since the beginning of the year [178][179].

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future direction depends on the outcome of the current round of negotiations. It is expected that the price volatility may increase next week. It is recommended that investors hold an empty or light - position. Aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy to gain potential returns from the rising volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The US soybean futures contracts were relatively strong, with the main contract at 1075 cents. The domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly from its low level last week but was weaker than the external market. The market was affected by the China - US talks, and the bulls were hesitant to enter the market due to the uncertainty of importing US soybeans. Also, potential positive factors could not be realized because of the US government shutdown [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the results of the negotiation. It is recommended that investors hold an empty or light - position. Aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy [6]. b. Industry News - As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest is expected to be 84% complete, and corn harvest 72% complete. Analysts' forecasts for the US harvest progress range from 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest progress was 89%, and the corn harvest progress was 81% [7]. - Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 7.34 million tons. Brazil's soybean meal exports in October are expected to reach 2.08 million tons, down from 2.09 million tons the previous week [9].