Economic Overview - The national economy in November 2025 showed characteristics of "stable production, differentiated consumption, and pressured investment" with industrial production recovering to normal levels after holiday disruptions[8] - The industrial added value in November grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal slowdown in growth[10] - Fixed asset investment from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with November's monthly growth rate at -12.0%, although this was a slight improvement from the previous month[30] Production Insights - New industries continue to show resilience, with automotive manufacturing and transportation equipment leading in production growth, while traditional sectors face challenges[11] - The production index for services grew by 4.2% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from October, reflecting seasonal adjustments post-holiday[14] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in November grew by only 1.3% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, with large-scale retail sales dropping by 2.0%[20] - The promotional season's impact was limited, with online retail growth slowing from 8.1% to 5.4%, indicating weaker consumer demand[23] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing investment showed signs of marginal improvement, particularly in high-tech sectors, despite an overall negative growth trend[31] - Real estate investment remains under pressure, with sales area and sales value down by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[34] Risk Factors - External uncertainties are increasing, and domestic demand may decline more than expected, posing risks to economic stability[36]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 1% while the North Stock 50 Index rose against the trend, indicating mixed market sentiment and sector performance [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.22% to 3820.85 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.88%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.35%. In contrast, the North Stock 50 Index increased by 1.1% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North Stock markets reached 1.1397 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, military industry, coal, oil, and pharmaceuticals all experienced declines, while retail and food & beverage sectors showed resilience with gains [1] - Concepts related to duty-free shopping and autonomous driving were notably active in the market [1] Policy Outlook - According to Everbright Securities, a new round of policy deployment is expected to support the A-share market's year-end performance, with domestic economic policies likely to continue to strengthen, maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range [1] - The release of policy dividends is anticipated to boost market confidence and attract various types of capital inflows [1] - Historically, the A-share market has performed well in the opening years of the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, suggesting a positive outlook for 2026 [1] Investment Strategy - Industry allocation should focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [1] - In the event of short-term market fluctuations due to external factors, defensive and consumer sectors may be worth monitoring [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone than expected. The subsequent non - farm data will affect the direction of interest rate cut expectations. Domestically, the government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task for next year [2]. - In the short term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, with low - volatility trading. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the bond market sentiment is weak, but the downside of the index is limited. The container shipping market for the European route will continue to see a tug - of - war between bulls and bears [5][8][9]. - For commodities, precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - long term and volatile in the short term; base metals have different trends, such as copper showing an internal - weak and external - strong pattern, aluminum being oscillatingly strong, and zinc having short - term wide - range fluctuations; energy and chemical products also have diverse trends, like crude oil being weakly volatile, and LPG being oscillating; agricultural products have different outlooks, for example, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification, and the oil market is weakly operating [16][19][20][23][43][44][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the release of the US non - farm payroll report. The Fed's interest rate cut decision and domestic economic data, such as the industrial production in November showing resilience while consumption and investment facing pressure, are important factors affecting the market [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It continues the callback trend. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on the previous trading day. In the short term, it is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, supported by policy, seasonal factors, and the external environment [3][5]. - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index closed down, and the trading volume decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [6][8]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market closed down on Monday, and the market sentiment is weak. The economic data in November shows weakening economic momentum, but the market focus is not on the fundamentals. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand has not yet formed a clear impact on the bond market [8][9]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase is less than expected. The market is in a tug - of - war between the support of spot prices and the expectation of future capacity release. In the short term, the market will continue this situation, and different contracts need to pay attention to different factors [9][10][12] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices rose sharply at night. The Fed's expected loose monetary policy and the EU's relaxation of the fuel - vehicle ban are beneficial to the demand for platinum and palladium in automobile catalysts. It is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external price difference of platinum [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a high - level shock. Focus on the release of the US non - farm payroll report tonight. In the short term, it is expected to be in a high - level shock, and bullish in the medium - long term [17][18][19]. - **Copper**: The fixed - asset investment growth rate declined, and the copper price shows an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Pay attention to the high - level adjustment risk and support at 90,000 [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The trends are different. Aluminum is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the medium term; alumina is weakly operating; cast aluminum alloy is oscillatingly strong [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: It is in short - term wide - range fluctuations. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals show tight supply at the mine end and support from inventory de - stocking [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is in a technical correction. Although the supply at the mine end is tight, the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected to enter a wide - range shock stage [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillatingly strong. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium - long term, it has a long - value support from the demand side [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space in the medium - long term; polysilicon is in a wait - and - see situation, with the trading logic mainly based on technical aspects [29][30]. - **Lead**: The inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The price is in a weak shock, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [31]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillatingly weak. After the central economic work conference, the market pricing returns to the fundamentals. The supply may slow down in the reduction, and the demand is seasonally weak. The prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [32][33]. - **Iron Ore**: The price first fell and then rose. The trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is expected to have limited downside space [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are in a weak consolidation. The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, and the demand is weak, resulting in a marginal oversupply. The supply of coke may increase in the future, and the price is likely to continue to decline [36][37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They face a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with limited upside space. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a high level [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is in an oscillating state. The high - price pulp has poor sales, and the demand is weak. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply factors. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The price hit a new low this year due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. It is weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel [42][43]. - **LPG**: It is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. The external market is in an oscillating pattern, and the domestic spot is relatively strong [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driving force, and it fluctuates with the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand for polyester will decline in the later stage. The PTA processing fee has limited repair space [46][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The supply negative feedback appears, but it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand is declining, and the supply has some support signals. The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the long - term oversupply situation remains [50][52]. - **Methanol**: Maintain the reverse - spread view. The 1 - 5 spread shows a positive - spread pattern, mainly due to market trends and unloading problems. It is recommended to add positions in the 1 - 5 reverse - spread [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side still has strong support. The supply pressure may be alleviated in January, and the demand has some support. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot situation [56][57]. - **PE**: Pay attention to the spot situation. It shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and it is difficult to form strong support [58][59]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene's inventory decreased on Monday. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [60][61][62]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cracking is weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking is rising. The supply is tightening, and the cracking has an upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom - space is limited, and the winter - storage policies are gradually introduced. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is weakening, and the cost side is weakly oscillating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [65][66]. - **Rubber**: The macro atmosphere is warm, but the fundamental benefits are limited. The supply of natural rubber is slightly tightened, the downstream demand support is weakening, and the inventory is still accumulating. It is expected to oscillate [68][70]. - **Urea**: The futures and spot prices tend to converge. The supply is high, and the price is under pressure, but the export policy weakens the downward driving force. It is expected to oscillate [71][72]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They fluctuate at a low level. Soda ash has an increasing over - supply expectation, and glass may have some production - line cold - repairs in the future. Caustic soda has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline weakly [73][74][75]. - **Log**: The short positions left the market intensively, and the price rose and then fell. The price is in a game state, with limited trading value [76][78][79]. - **Propylene**: It is weakly oscillating. The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is not strong. It will remain in a weak state before more maintenance [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The supply - demand situation in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an over - supply pressure, and the far - month is stronger [82][83]. - **Oilseeds**: The customs - clearance time is extended. The import soybean buying sentiment is reduced, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. The external market of soybeans is weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive - spread trend in the short term [84][85][86]. - **Oils**: They are weakly operating. Palm oil is under supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by market news. The short - term price center of gravity is moving down [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to downstream orders. The domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight in the long term, and the price is relatively strong, but there is short - term pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips [89]. - **Sugar**: The price hits a new low. Affected by the high - supply situation in major producing countries, the sugar price is in a weak state [90][91][92]. - **Eggs**: The chicken culling is in progress. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, but there is a turning point. It is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [93]. - **Apples**: The price has a large retracement. The consumption is not smooth, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips [94][95]. - **Jujubes**: The new - product supply is sufficient. The new - season jujube production is expected to decrease slightly, and the short - term price has limited downside space. Pay attention to downstream pre - holiday purchases [96][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market focused on the Fed's December FOMC meeting overseas and the Central Economic Work Conference in China last week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market strengthened its easing expectations. In China, the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for continued easing in 2026 [5]. - Global stock markets and commodities mostly declined, and A - shares showed a differentiated trend. Commodities were more differentiated, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly, while the energy and chemical sectors were dragged down by weak oil prices, and the black series tumbled [5]. - The domestic bond market showed mixed performance, with short - term bonds stronger than long - term bonds, and the stock index fluctuated and differentiated. Most domestic commodity categories closed down [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Overseas, the December FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot showed differences among Fed officials. The market strengthened its easing expectations, with U.S. bond yields showing a pattern of short - term weakness and long - term strength, and the U.S. dollar index under pressure. In China, the Central Economic Work Conference affirmed 2025 and set the tone for 2026. The November macro - economic data was mediocre, with industrial production weakening, investment slowing down, consumption decreasing, exports being strong, prices differentiating, and credit being weak. Capital market investors were cautious, and the VIX index fluctuated narrowly. Global stock markets and commodities mostly declined, and A - shares showed a differentiated trend. The BDI index dropped significantly. Commodities were more differentiated, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly, the energy and chemical sectors being dragged down by weak oil prices, and the black series tumbling due to the deterioration of the real estate market and relatively stable policies [5]. Domestic Market Performance - The domestic bond market showed mixed performance, with short - term bonds stronger than long - term bonds, and the stock index fluctuated and differentiated. The growth - style stocks performed better than value - style stocks, and the CSI 500 rebounded significantly. Most domestic commodity categories closed down, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of 4.4%. Among the 10 commodity category indices, 3 rose and 7 fell. Precious metals soared by more than 4%, non - ferrous metals were strong, and soft commodities were resistant to decline. Other sectors all declined, with the energy and chemical sectors being weak, and the black series and non - metallic building materials having large declines [6]. - In terms of the futures market capital flow, funds in the commodity futures market flowed out significantly overall. The precious metals and soft commodities sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the energy, grain, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant capital outflows [6][18]. - Regarding commodity volatility, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased slightly, while the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index increased. The volatility of commodity futures categories showed mixed performance, with the chemical and oil and fat sectors having obvious volatility declines, and the non - ferrous and energy sectors having notable volatility increases [6]. Fed's Situation - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January changed little, with the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% at 72.7%, similar to last week's 61.6%, and the probability of a 25bp cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remaining at less than 30%. The market expects 1 - 3 more interest rate cuts in 2026 [7]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range from 3.75% - 4.00% to 3.50% - 3.75% at the December FOMC meeting, with a total of 75bp cuts this year. The Fed also announced the start of reserve management to rebuild liquidity buffers in the money market [77][78]. - The Fed raised the GDP growth expectations for this year and the next three years, with the largest increase of 0.5 percentage points for next year. It slightly lowered the unemployment rate expectation for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points and slightly lowered the PCE inflation and core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next year by 0.1 percentage points each [84]. - The dot - plot shows that the Fed still expects one 25bp interest rate cut next year, and the interest rate path prediction is consistent with three months ago. There are still differences among Fed officials, with three members voting against the 25bp interest rate cut at the December meeting [90][96]. China's Economic Situation - In November, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the core CPI increasing by 1.2% year - on - year, remaining the same as last month. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with a 0.1% month - on - month increase. The inflation data showed differentiation, and more efforts are needed to promote the recovery of prices [109][110]. - The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the core contradiction in the current economic operation is the strong supply and weak demand in China, and there are three intertwined challenges. The conference emphasized that these are "problems in development and transformation" and aimed to manage expectations and boost confidence [113]. - In November, China's industrial production weakened, investment slowed down, consumption decreased, exports were strong, prices differentiated, and credit was weak [117]. This Week's Focus - The market is concerned about a series of postponed U.S. economic data, including the November non - farm payroll report and CPI, as well as the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. It is expected that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25bp [7]. - A series of economic data and central bank interest rate decisions from various countries will be announced this week, including China's November economic data, U.S. inflation and employment data, and the interest rate decisions of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Russian Central Bank [121].

Core Viewpoint - Since early 2025, the markets in the US, Hong Kong, and mainland China have shown a quarterly switching pattern, exhibiting a "seesaw" effect and cross-market mapping [1] Group 1: Liquidity - Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to US monetary easing, but outperforming requires local funds to perceive limited opportunities in their own markets [1] Group 2: Fundamentals - The US credit cycle is recovering while China's economy is experiencing turbulence and potential weakening, with US stocks expected to outperform A-shares, which in turn will outperform Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 3: Structural Main Lines - In the AI sector, hardware has better short-term visibility than applications, with A-shares being more concentrated in hardware and Hong Kong stocks in applications [1] - Hong Kong stocks have a higher dividend yield compared to A-shares, providing an advantage for domestic insurance funds and other investors without dividend tax [1] - The cyclical outlook is influenced by catalysts in the first and second quarters, driven by US fiscal and monetary stimulus and the lagging recovery of China's PPI [1] - Domestic credit cycles are weakening, and the recovery slope of consumption is low [1] Group 4: Recommendations - The company suggests using dividends and AI as a foundational strategy, with A-share hardware showing short-term certainty, while Hong Kong applications require catalysts for performance improvement [1] - In the first quarter, focus on strong cyclical trading catalysts, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and aluminum, where A-shares are favored over Hong Kong stocks, while the consumption sector lacks fundamental support [1] - If US fiscal and monetary efforts materialize, cyclical stocks may catch up with technology, and small-cap and financial stocks are also worth monitoring [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates a "seesaw" effect in the markets of the US, A-shares, and Hong Kong, with inter-market reflections and linkages observed since early 2025 [1] - In terms of liquidity, Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to US monetary easing, but outperforming requires local investors to perceive limited opportunities [1] - The fundamental outlook shows that the US credit cycle is recovering while China's credit cycle is fluctuating or weakening, with profitability ranking as US stocks > A-shares > Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - In the structural mainline analysis, AI hardware has higher short-term visibility than applications, with A-shares being more focused on hardware and Hong Kong stocks on applications [1] - Hong Kong stocks offer higher dividend yields compared to A-shares, particularly advantageous for mainland insurance investors who do not need to consider dividend taxes [1] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor catalysts in the first two quarters, driven by US fiscal and monetary policies, and the potential recovery of domestic PPI [1] Group 3 - The recommendation is to use dividends (predominantly from Hong Kong stocks) and AI as a core investment strategy, with A-share hardware showing higher short-term certainty while Hong Kong applications require further catalysts [2] - The first quarter should focus on strong cyclical trading catalysts in sectors like non-ferrous metals, aluminum, chemicals, and machinery, with A-shares having a greater presence than Hong Kong stocks [2] - In the US market, if fiscal and monetary policies are effectively implemented, cyclical stocks may catch up with technology, while small-cap stocks benefiting from cost reduction and economic improvement, as well as financial stocks due to increased credit and deregulation, are also worth attention [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Management Measures for Industrial Technology Basic Public Service Platforms" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, emphasizing the importance of these platforms in supporting industrial development and technological innovation [3][8]. Summary by Sections General Principles - The purpose of the measures is to implement the manufacturing power strategy, enhance the industrial support system, and cultivate authoritative and foundational public service platforms for industrial technology [10]. - The service platforms are defined as specialized institutions that provide essential support services across the entire chain of technological innovation activities, from research and development to industrialization [10]. Application - Applicants for service platforms must clearly define their service industry and scope, focusing on key sectors such as equipment, petrochemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, construction materials, light industry, textiles, food, pharmaceuticals, new information technology, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, and more [13][14]. Basic Requirements - Applicants must have independent legal status and engage primarily in industrial technology basic services, with at least 60% of their business related to this area [14]. - They should have a strong reputation in the industry, a well-established operational mechanism, and a minimum of one year of relevant service experience [14]. - The platforms must also possess high-level professional talent, necessary infrastructure, and technical capabilities, including having equipment valued at no less than 10 million yuan or annual service revenue exceeding 10 million yuan [14]. Review and Publication - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will conduct annual reviews of the service platforms, with evaluations based on submitted annual reports and performance assessments [24]. - A third-party organization or expert group will be responsible for reviewing applications and conducting on-site evaluations if necessary [18]. Operation - Service platforms are required to strengthen their institutional norms, adhere to principles of fairness and integrity, and accept government guidance and social supervision [21]. - They must also enhance their operational capabilities, improve service quality, and adapt to industry trends and technological developments [22]. Dynamic Management - The Ministry will implement dynamic management of the service platforms, conducting annual evaluations and comprehensive reviews every three years [24]. - Platforms that fail to meet performance standards or engage in fraudulent activities may be removed from the official list and barred from reapplication for three years [25].

Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to "consolidate and expand the economic momentum" and requires a "more proactive" fiscal policy with "domestic demand as the main driver" [1][3] - The conference introduces the goal of "stopping the decline in investment" for the first time in ten years and revisits the concept of "de-stocking" in real estate [1][3] Domestic Macro - In November, the CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.2% year-on-year, influenced by food prices, consumer subsidies, and rising gold prices [5][6] - November's export growth was 5.9% (previous value -1.1%), and import growth was 1.9% (previous value 1.0%), indicating strong export momentum for non-US and non-re-export capital goods [5][6] Foreign Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% in December, aligning with expectations and indicating a more optimistic outlook on the US economy and inflation [8] - The Fed's cautious stance on future rate cuts reflects internal divisions and a focus on managing short-term market pressures [8] Bond Market - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern without significant trend reversals, with key variables such as inflation data and policy tool implementation being closely monitored [9][16] - Recent trends show a mixed performance in the bond market, with government bond yields fluctuating and credit bonds experiencing an increase in issuance [12][16] Equity Market - The equity market shows a preference for technology growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34% and the ChiNext Index up 2.74% [17][18] - Growth styles outperformed value styles, with mid-cap stocks leading the performance [18][26] Investment Strategy - The company recommends increasing offensive positions in investments, particularly in technology, brokerage, and consumer sectors, as policy expectations may improve [2][27] - The upcoming spring market is viewed as a potential opportunity for investment, with a focus on large-cap growth stocks and sectors showing signs of recovery [28][29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the shift in policy focus from "expansion" to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," highlighting the importance of development quality in the economic context of 2026 [3][12][13] - The report anticipates a reasonable recovery in prices, with expectations that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will gradually narrow its year-on-year decline and eventually turn positive in 2026, supported by a combination of macroeconomic policies [4][14] - Three key supports for corporate profit recovery in 2026 are identified: the emergence of new productive forces as a growth engine, the acceleration of anti-involution policies, and resilient overseas demand contributing to strong export performance [4][15][16] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market will increasingly correlate with fundamental performance in 2026, with a focus on profit recovery driven by price increases and structural improvements [5][17] - Historical patterns indicate that the A-share market will initially favor growth stocks, followed by cyclical stocks, and eventually consumer stocks, with three main investment themes: technology growth sectors led by AI, industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, and high-demand export sectors [5][17]

上周A股市场延续震荡格局，指数表现分化、科技成长占优。尽管重要会议强调对拉动内需的支持，11 月M2和社融规模增速保持稳定，CPI数据也有所回暖，但当前资金依然更青睐科技板块。周内A股交投 活跃度有所回升，日均成交额升至1.95万亿元。风格上看，科技成长领涨而周期、消费普遍下跌。整体 体现为：成长>周期>消费>金融。 金鹰基金表示，近期多项重要会议与数据落地，国内方面，上周政治局会议、中央经济工作会议先后举 行，初步奠定政策基调并明确"扩大内需"、"人工智能+"、"着力稳定房地产市场"等结构性方向。数据 上，11月CPI有所回暖、M2和社融规模增速保持稳定，但居民消费动力仍不足。后续需关注财政提效、 货币适度宽松与结构性政策落地对市场的持续提振。 海外方面，美联储超预期鸽派降息，但联储内部分歧加剧，提前重启技术性扩表应对流动性紧张，资本 市场在降息呵护下软着陆。但上周五科技板块集体下挫，市场对AI泡沫的担忧仍存，市场或呈阶段性 震荡。后续关注本周将公布的11月非农数据、明年初美联储新任主席的提名情况，我们认为美联储在明 年年初降息暂歇后，仍会持续开启降息，温和通胀和疲弱就业或依然支持美联储保持降息路径。 关注 ...