Report Overview - Report Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng - Contact Information: Tel: 021 - 53686158; E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com; SAC No.: S0870523100004 [1] Industry Investment Rating - The report continues to be bullish on the bond market and A - share structural opportunities, but no specific industry investment rating is provided [12] Core Viewpoints - Continue to be optimistic about the bond market and A - share structural opportunities. The rapid price increase of commodities such as coal, steel, and building materials is due to the dual positive catalysts of the increasing expectation of supply - side reform and the incremental demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project. The bond market is not substantially affected by the commodity price increase, and the short - term adjustment provides an opportunity to go long on the bond market. In the stock market, the Politburo meeting at the end of July may introduce some growth - stabilizing policies, and the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden are expected to keep investors' risk appetite at a high level. There are still investment opportunities in structural sectors such as rare earths, artificial intelligence, innovative drugs, and commodities [12] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - **US Stocks**: In the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by 1.02%, 1.46%, and 1.26% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 1.91% [2] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index changed by 2.27% in the same period [2] - **A - Shares**: The Wind All - A Index rose 2.21%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 2.29%, 1.69%, 3.28%, 2.36%, 1.81%, and 3.63% respectively. In terms of sector styles, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, and the North Securities 50 Index changed by 2.85% [3] - **Industry Performance**: Among the 30 CITIC industries, 4 industries declined and 26 industries rose. The leading industries were coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, and construction, with weekly gains of more than 6%. In terms of ETF performance, rare metals, coal, building materials, non - ferrous metals, and Hong Kong securities performed well, with weekly gains of more than 7% [4] Bond Market - **Domestic Interest - Rate Bonds**: In the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.56% compared to July 18, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond increased by 6.72 BP to 1.7324% compared to July 18, 2025. The yield curve became steeper [5] - **Funding Price**: As of July 25, 2025, R007 was 1.6937%, up 18.65 BP from July 18, 2025; DR007 was 1.6523%, up 14.56 BP, and the spread between the two increased. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 70.5 billion yuan in the past week [6] - **Bond Market Leverage**: The bond market leverage level increased. The 5 - day average of the inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 7.24 trillion yuan on July 18, 2025, to 7.70 trillion yuan on July 25, 2025 [7] - **US Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025), the long - term US Treasury bond yields decreased while the short - term yields increased. As of July 25, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 4 BP to 4.40%. The yield curve became flatter [8][9] Foreign Exchange and Commodities - **US Dollar**: The US dollar index fell 0.80% in the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025). The US dollar exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen changed by - 1.00%, - 0.19%, and - 0.76% respectively. The US dollar exchange rates against the offshore and onshore RMB decreased by 0.18% and 0.12% respectively [10] - **Gold**: The international gold price fell, with the London gold spot price falling 0.35% to $3343.5 per ounce and the COMEX gold futures price falling 0.61% to $3329.1 per ounce. The domestic gold price rose, with the Shanghai gold spot price rising 0.09% to 774.21 yuan per gram and the futures price rising 0.01% to 774.70 yuan per gram [10] Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines, Japan, and the EU. Sino - US trade talks will be held in Sweden from July 27 - 30, 2025, and the follow - up progress is worthy of attention [11]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that ETFs will become the ultimate destination for most retail investors, allowing them to act as their own fund managers [1][4][5] - As of July 25, there are 458 indices tracked by ETFs, with 77 indices showing over 20% returns this year, indicating a bullish market [7][8] - The average return for non-money market ETFs this year is 9.02%, with a median return of 12.52% [9] Group 2 - The article highlights that the Hong Kong stock market has been a significant performer, with 38 out of the 77 bullish indices being Hong Kong indices [10][11] - Key themes in the market include the recovery of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals and technology sectors, as well as resource stocks benefiting from demand expectations [11] - The article provides a detailed table of top-performing ETFs, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index showing a return of 90.79% and a net inflow of 6.17 billion [12][13] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of asset allocation, stating that no asset will always rise, but there will always be assets that are rising [20][21] - It mentions the concept of time diversification, where investors can buy in phases rather than trying to time the market perfectly [36] - The article concludes that the "three-part method" of investment emphasizes long-termism and risk diversification through asset, market, and timing allocation [56]

Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a downturn after failing to break through a certain resistance level, indicating a potential shift in market direction [2][3] - The market has shown that 90% of the time within a year is not suitable for trading, suggesting a focus on the remaining 10% for investment opportunities [2] Sector Performance - The financial sector is showing mixed performance, with insurance stocks leading the market, while banks are struggling to maintain their support role [3] - The securities sector has shown volatility, with a recent high followed by a pullback, indicating potential risks ahead [3] Commodity Trends - There has been a significant decline in coal and non-ferrous metals, with recent trading sessions indicating a downward trend in silicon materials and lithium mining stocks [4] - The liquor industry is also facing downward pressure, with reports of a nearly 50% drop in certain products, raising concerns about the sector's stability [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market has accelerated its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3600-point mark and average daily trading volume rising to 1.86 trillion yuan [1] - The overall market style is characterized by a performance hierarchy: cyclical > growth > financial > consumer sectors [1] - Recent policy announcements and national strategic plans have boosted economic recovery confidence, with the upcoming Politburo meeting expected to play a crucial role in market performance [1] Group 2 - The Jin Ying Fund suggests a balanced allocation to mitigate potential volatility, particularly in the financial sector due to the upcoming Stablecoin regulations [2] - In the technology growth sector, interest in AI applications and the semiconductor industry is expected to rise following the World Artificial Intelligence Conference [2] - Despite a potential decrease in "anti-involution" enthusiasm due to falling futures prices, related policies are likely to continue, with sectors like photovoltaic and building materials still worth monitoring [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - **Macro**: The US tariff exemption extension is entering its final week, and negotiations with countries like the EU, India, and Mexico are in a tense phase, with uncertainties regarding potential tariff counter - measures. Overseas is in a week of intensive macro - events, including the Fed's interest - rate meeting and key economic data releases. China will hold a Politburo meeting, and attention should be paid to economic work guidance and PMI data to confirm economic recovery. The real estate sales remain at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and has declined due to summer heat, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export phase is ending, posing potential downward pressure on the Q3 economy. However, anti - involution policies are expected to gradually reverse deflation [4]. - **Funds**: Domestic liquidity is generally loose but marginally tightening. Bond market redemptions are flowing into the stock market, providing incremental funds. Overseas financial conditions have improved, with a decline in the real interest rate of US bonds, leading to foreign capital inflows into the domestic stock market. Passive ETF shares are being re - increased, equity financing such as IPOs has cooled, margin trading funds are continuously flowing in, and the pressure of restricted - share unlocks has increased, overall favoring liquidity [4]. - **Valuation**: After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral - to - high level. The stock - bond yield spreads at home and abroad have further declined, making the attractiveness of allocation funds average [4]. - **Strategy**: The current valuations of broad - based indices are not cheap, and the foreign - capital risk premium index has dropped to a low level. The pressure of US tariff policies may resurface. Considering that the stock market has prematurely priced in macro - expectations, the market is expected to oscillate, reach a peak, and then correct in the next 1 - 2 weeks when positive factors are realized or fall short of expectations. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices after sharp rallies this week or use out - of - the - money put options to protect against black - swan risks. In terms of style, hold long positions in IC and IM, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Stock Indices**: In the past week, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index led the gains, while the German stock market led the losses. The week - on - week changes of major indices are as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.76%, among others [8][9]. - **Sectors**: Coal led the gains, and banks led the losses. Coal > Steel > Non - ferrous metals > Building materials... > Electric power and public utilities > Communications > Comprehensive finance > Banks [12]. - **Futures**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.21%, 0.09%, - 0.39%, and - 0.31% respectively, with IH reaching par and the discounts of IC and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (current and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.3%, - 0.25%, - 0.19%, and - 0.25% respectively, and the inter - period discounts of the four major futures began to widen. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.21%, - 0.61%, - 1.32%, and - 1.81% respectively, with the long - term discounts of the four major futures widening significantly [19]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 39.65 billion yuan, reaching a total of 1.94 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained unchanged at 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.17358 trillion yuan, an increase of 74.43 billion yuan from the previous week, and the share was 198.619 billion shares, with a net subscription of 290 million shares from the previous week [22]. - **Industrial Capital**: In July, the cumulative equity financing was 45.49 billion yuan, with 6 cases. Among them, IPO financing was 20.92 billion yuan, private placement was 24.58 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 8.79 billion yuan. The market value of stock market unlocks last week was 86.84 billion yuan, a significant increase of 58.38 billion yuan from the previous week [26]. 3. Liquidity - **Monetary Injection**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse - repurchase matured at 1.7268 trillion yuan, with a reverse - repurchase injection of 1.6563 trillion yuan, resulting in a net monetary withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 400 billion yuan in July and matured at 300 billion yuan, with continuous monthly net injections for 5 months. Overall, the liquidity supply was neutral but marginally tightening [28]. - **Fund Prices**: The DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 14.5bp, 6.4bp, and 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.65%, 1.55%, and 1.52%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 2.1bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks rebounded by 4.1bp to 1.67%. The fund supply tightened marginally, debt financing demand declined, but the real - economy financing demand recovered, and the fund prices generally rebounded slightly [34]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bonds changed by 6.7bp, 6bp, and 5.2bp respectively; the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year China Development Bank bonds changed by 8.9bp, 9.5bp, and 6.6bp respectively. The yield term structure continued to steepen, and the credit spreads between Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds widened at both the long and short ends, indicating a return of broad - credit expectations [38]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 25, the US 10 - year Treasury yield changed by - 4.0bp to 4.40%, the inflation expectation changed by 3.0bp to 2.44%, and the real interest rate changed by - 7.00bp to 1.96%. The Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrowed by 10.79bp to - 266.61bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.19% [41]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 24, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.531 million square meters, showing a seasonal improvement from the previous week's 1.372 million square meters but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Second - hand housing sales declined seasonally, reaching the lowest level in nearly seven years. The real estate market sales generally returned to a low level, and attention should be paid to whether the Politburo meeting will propose signals to boost the real estate market [44]. - **Service Industry Activities**: As of July 25, the daily average subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities dropped significantly to 81.84 million person - times, a 1.2% decrease from the same period last year but a 21.8% increase from 2021. The Baidu congestion delay index of 100 cities decreased slightly from the previous week, indicating that the service industry's economic activities were cooling down [48]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Due to the anti - involution policy, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry declined. The capacity utilization rates of steel mills, asphalt, cement clinker enterprises, and coking enterprises changed by - 0.08%, - 4%, - 0.26%, and 0.44% respectively. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by 0.01% from the previous week. Overall, the domestic and foreign demand trends of the manufacturing industry improved marginally, and it has entered the seasonal peak season [52]. - **Goods Flow**: The goods and people flow remained at a relatively high level. The postal express and civil aviation sectors showed a significant weekly decline, while railway transportation rebounded slightly, which may be related to the rush - to - export. There is a risk of a second seasonal decline from August to September [56]. - **Exports**: As the rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks is nearing its end, the port cargo throughput and container throughput have increased significantly. There is a risk of a second decline from August to September when the 90 - day tariff exemption period ends [61]. - **Overseas**: With the US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value in July falling back into the contraction range and the US durable goods orders data dropping more than expected, the financial market has revised its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate path. The market expects 2 interest rate cuts in 2025, with a reduction of 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a September rate cut has increased to 61.9% [63]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium was 3.07%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week, at the 58.5% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.99%, a 0.05% decrease from the previous week, at the 21.2% quantile. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 81.1%, 76.8%, 87.3%, and 71.4% quantiles of the past 5 years respectively, and their relative valuation levels were not low [66][71]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal laws, the stock market is in a period of seasonal shock - driven growth and structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. There are opportunities to go long on IC and IM on pullbacks and short on IF and IH on sharp rallies [74]. - **Financial Calendar**: China will release July's manufacturing and service industry PMI and industrial enterprise profits, which will help confirm economic recovery. Overseas, attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll report, job vacancies, manufacturing PMI, PCE inflation data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [76].

展望后市，华宝证券认为，短期来看，周期板块、商品市场存在过热超涨风险，科技（AI、芯片 等）、新能源领域轮动性价比有所回升，后续成长风格有望接力周期。宽基方向创业板、中证500、中 证800、中证1000等中盘方向预计表现更好。 东方证券研报认为，行业和主题领涨结构变化在即。上周领涨行业是建筑材料（8.2%）、煤炭 （8.0%）、钢铁（7.7%）和有色（6.7%），主要系"反内卷"和水电站的主题驱动、商品价格上涨和潜 在政策预期，短期主题行情和商品价格加速上涨阶段或已进入尾声。假设政策符合预期，相关行业供给 侧变化趋势延续，但商品价格仍然难以大幅上涨，相关行业股价上涨斜率会降低，市场需要看到更明确 的需求侧预期。（闻辉） 据招商证券研报统计，上周（7月21日—7月25日）周期ETF涨幅最大，规模以上平均上涨6.41%。国信 证券研报统计，周期ETF净申购最多，为102.31亿元。 "周期行情内部正在向煤炭、建筑等低位行业扩散。"兴业证券研报认为，这种板块轮动与行情扩散的背 后，反映的是市场风险偏好提升后，各类资金正在主线内部积极寻找和挖掘尚未被充分定价的细分领 域。在反内卷涉及的重点行业中，普钢、玻璃玻纤、钛 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current market conditions are conducive to a bull market driven by policy and liquidity, with deflation and a downturn in the real estate market unlikely to change the overall bullish trend [1][6]. Industry Research - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai showcased over 800 companies, with more than 50% being international, indicating a significant interest in AI technologies. AI is expected to be a major application area, particularly in programming [3]. - The mining and metallurgy sector is expected to see a divergence, with bullish sentiment on non-ferrous metals due to inventory cycles, while black metals are anticipated to face downward price pressure [11]. - The "anti-involution" theme is emerging, with funds favoring low-valuation, high-dividend sectors such as traditional industries and certain new energy sectors like wind and solar [12]. - The market is shifting towards a rotation phase, focusing on previously lagging sectors such as coal, utilities, and real estate, indicating a search for undervalued assets [13]. Equity Market - The A-share market has shown strong performance since June, with a favorable external environment and liquidity conditions. However, internal pressures from fundamentals and policy responses are expected to create a balancing act [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to see a structural market where tech stocks can perform independently despite a lack of overall market trends [7]. - The current A-share market resembles the 2014-2015 period, with a clear trend of household savings moving into the stock market, favoring thematic investments and high-quality growth stocks [22].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of resource commodities is gaining consensus in the market amid rising de-globalization trends, with a significant commodity market rally since 2020, covering various resources from coal to gold, copper, silver, and rare earths [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The new fund manager of Western Lide Fund, Guan Haoyang, emphasizes that supply is more critical than demand at this investment juncture, and beta is more important than individual stocks [1][6] - Guan believes that the ongoing commodity market rally, which has been active for five years, still presents opportunities as resource commodities transition from "cyclical goods" to "strategic assets" [1][6] Group 2: Research Background - Guan has focused on cyclical stock research since entering the industry in 2016, expanding his expertise from steel to various sectors including construction, materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and coal over nine years [2] - He has developed a comprehensive research framework for cyclical commodities, recognizing the high barriers between different sub-industries [2] Group 3: Resource Classification - Guan categorizes resource stocks into four types: 1. **Cyclical Assets**: Assets with explosive performance during uptrends, such as gold and silver, where price tracking is crucial [4] 2. **Thematic Assets**: Assets like rare earths that are rising in price but have not yet shown performance, focusing on price trends and market sentiment [4] 3. **Value Assets**: Stable price assets with low valuations, such as copper, where company growth and valuation matching are key [5] 4. **Dividend Assets**: Stable price assets with high dividend yields, like oil and coal, where finding assets with potential dividend recovery is essential [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Guan assesses that the current commodity cycle, which began in 2020, still holds potential due to rigid supply constraints [6] - He identifies three main supply constraints: insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the elevation of resource commodities to strategic assets through administrative measures by various countries [6][7] - The restructuring of supply chains driven by de-globalization is expected to create long-term benefits for industrial metals like copper [7]

中信证券：市场已演绎出典型水牛特征 市场近期已经演绎出比较典型的水牛特征。 最初观察到的是比较广泛和普遍的机构资金净流入，随着市场赚 钱效应开始积累，散户的流入也在加速，并且行情热度升温、"反内卷"叙事逻辑加强，一些保守型资金可能也 在被动调仓。历史复盘显示，2010年以来，基本面和流动性背离的水牛，持续时间通常不超过4个月，本轮水 牛行情能否演化为持续时间更久的全面牛市需要观察后续基本面（即使是结构性的）好转情况。 本轮"反内卷"行情中，简单复制2021年博弈上游涨价的持续性可能有限，但市场还存在一些估值尚处低位且关 注度不高的周期制造类品种。2025世界人工智能大会有望给多个细分领域带来催化，同时随着科创板"1+6"政 策、金融支持科创相关政策的持续推进，自今年4月以来明显滞涨的科创板有望迎来补涨行情。突破3600点 后，当前策略应对思路建议增配恒科、增配科创，同时行业层面继续围绕有色、通信、创新药、军工、游戏轮 动。 华泰证券：依然看好港股市场机会 全球流动性宽松意味着大量资金有增配诉求，外溢至中国尤其是离岸市场中国香港。经历了年初至今的估值修 复后，港股市场估值变动并未偏离全球流动性可支持的水平。在预 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to accelerate its rise, with a shift in leading sectors towards technology. The index is anticipated to continue its upward trend without significant resistance, as evidenced by the recent increases in major indices: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.67%, ChiNext Index up 2.76%, and Sci-Tech 50 Index up 4.63% [2][13]. - There is an imminent change in the leading structure of industries and themes. Last week, the leading sectors included construction materials (up 8.2%), coal (up 8.0%), steel (up 7.7%), and non-ferrous metals (up 6.7%), driven by themes such as "anti-involution" and hydropower station developments. However, the report suggests that the current phase of rapid price increases may be nearing its end, and market expectations for policy announcements may not exceed optimistic forecasts [3][14]. - The technology sector is expected to become the main focus of attention as the rapid rise of cyclical sectors comes to an end. The report emphasizes that technology will be the main line of the upcoming market trends [4][15]. Group 2 - The report maintains a positive outlook on artificial intelligence (AI) as a key theme, predicting significant marginal changes in the AI industry over the next 1-2 months. The release of new models, such as OpenAI's GPT-5, is expected to stimulate competition and drive growth in the sector [5][16]. - Within the AI theme, the report highlights strong potential in domestic computing power, AI applications, PCB-related sectors, and robotics. It argues that domestic computing power is crucial for national development and will likely receive continued policy support. AI applications are expected to gain traction as new models are released, while the PCB sector remains in an upward trend. Robotics, as a significant application of AI, is also projected to follow the growth of the AI sector [6][17][18].