Group 1 - The market sentiment is becoming more optimistic, with A-shares showing a five-week consecutive rise in weekly K-line performance, indicating a growing profit effect for investors [1] - Institutional funds have seen widespread net inflows, with public mutual funds exceeding estimated net redemptions in June, and private equity registrations surpassing 30 billion yuan, a 125% year-on-year increase [2] - Retail investors are also increasing their participation, with margin balances exceeding last year's peak, and active private equity positions remaining high at 82% [2] Group 2 - Historical data suggests that bull markets characterized by a divergence between fundamentals and liquidity typically last no more than four months, raising questions about the sustainability of the current market trend [3] - The current anti-involution narrative indicates potential investment opportunities in undervalued cyclical manufacturing sectors, particularly in construction materials, basic chemicals, steel, and transportation [4] - The upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference in 2025 is expected to catalyze growth in various sectors, with the STAR Market likely to experience a rebound due to supportive policies [5] Group 3 - Strategies for responding to the market surpassing 3600 points include balancing investments between Hong Kong and A-shares, with a focus on technology sectors and cyclical industries [6][7] - Investor sentiment is leaning towards a bullish outlook, with 55% of surveyed investors believing the market is in a bull phase, and a majority expecting the market to stabilize above 3600 points [9] - The technology sector remains a favored investment direction, with 46% of investors maintaining a focus on this area, while consumer sectors are also gaining attention [10]

（二）券商最新研判 （一）重磅消息 据新华社报道，国务院总理7月26日在上海出席2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 开幕式并致辞。围绕如何把握人工智能公共产品属性、推进人工智能发展和治理，提出三点建议。一是 更加注重普及普惠，充分用好人工智能发展的已有成果。二是更加注重创新合作，力求更多突破性的人 工智能科技硕果。三是更加注重共同治理，确保人工智能在造福人类上最终修成正果。 信达证券：当下市场具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件 牛市重要的驱动力量之一是股市政策驱动股权融资减少。2023年下半年以来，随着股权融资规模的下 降，股市的供需结构也在扭转。当下市场也具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件。 战略上，2025年下半年可能会出现类似2014年下半年的突破，战术上要等待经济或政策的催化。估值位 置偏低、上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，这些很像2013年~2014年年中和2019 年的震荡市，最终的结局大概率是更全面的牛市。战术层面，之前突破的临界点均有政策和经济高频数 据催化，目前需要等待观察1~2个月。 行业配置方面，稳健策略包括非银、银行，指数权重大且机构低配。需要轮动的策略上， ...

Group 1 - The implementation of the "Two New" policies in Qinghai Province has effectively stimulated investment and consumer confidence from May 2024 to May 2025 [1] - Key sectors such as non-ferrous metals and steel industries saw significant increases in equipment purchases, with invoice amounts rising by 2.8 times and 92.1% respectively [1] - The overall sales revenue in key sectors increased by 4.3% year-on-year, surpassing the provincial average growth rate by 9.2 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The "old for new" consumption policy has led to a notable rise in retail sales of household appliances, with refrigerator sales increasing by 1.1 times and television sales by 36.6% [2] - Smart home products, particularly furniture and sanitary ware, experienced substantial growth, with sales increasing by 55.4% and 27.1% respectively [2] - The overall retail sales revenue in the province grew by 4.8% year-on-year, exceeding the provincial average growth rate by 9.7 percentage points, highlighting the role of consumption in driving economic growth [2]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the offshore RMB showing signs of breaking out against the USD. This is expected to create a bullish mid-term outlook for A-shares, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially aiming beyond the previous high of 3674 points set on October 8, 2024 [1][4][54] - Short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to profit-taking, but key support levels such as recent short-term gaps and the 20-day moving average are expected to provide stability [1][4][54] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices collectively rose, with the STAR 50 leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 increased by 1.67%, 1.12%, and 1.69% respectively, while the STAR 50 surged by 4.63% [2][12] - The cyclical sector showed strong performance, with coal, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and construction leading the gains, rising by 8.00%, 7.55%, 7.10%, 6.44%, and 6.21% respectively [2][13][53] - Market sentiment improved significantly, with average daily trading volume rising to 1.83 trillion RMB, indicating increased investor activity [2][19] Fund Flow Analysis - The margin trading balance increased significantly to 1.94 trillion RMB, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 10.56% [2][28] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 4.04 billion RMB, with infrastructure ETFs attracting the most inflow while securities ETFs experienced the largest outflow [2][28] Sector Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation strategy of "1+1+X," focusing on large financial institutions (banks and brokerages) alongside sectors like military, computing, media, electronics, and new energy [5][56] - In light of increased market risk appetite, a shift from large banks to smaller banks is recommended to enhance portfolio flexibility [5][56] - Continuous investment in brokerage firms is advised to mitigate upward risks, while switching from high-performing stocks to those near their annual moving averages is suggested [5][56]

Core Viewpoint - The new large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy in China, initiated in 2024, is set to significantly boost economic development by expanding funding support and coverage areas, aiming for a 25% increase in equipment investment across seven major sectors by 2027 [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Dynamics and Key Points - The funding scale for equipment updates has been expanded to 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan allocated to 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [2][5]. - The second batch of funding, amounting to 81 billion yuan, is being reviewed for projects focusing on consumer goods replacement and equipment updates [5]. - The 2025 policy introduces new support areas such as electronic information and safety production, creating a "16+N" coverage system [5][8]. Group 2: Implementation Mechanism Optimization - The policy has removed the previous investment threshold of 100 million yuan for projects, lowering the entry barrier for small and medium-sized enterprises [5][7]. - A dual review mechanism of "local audit + national review" has been established to streamline the approval process [5][7]. - New upgrade directions in the energy and power sector include ten specific areas, enhancing the efficiency and safety of energy facilities [8][9]. Group 3: Comparison of 2024 and 2025 Policies - The 2024 policy focused on seven key sectors, while the 2025 policy expands to 16 sectors with a dynamic expansion mechanism [7]. - The funding intensity has increased with an additional 81 billion yuan and a 1.5% interest subsidy on loans [7]. - The 2025 policy introduces 294 new national standards, enhancing the regulatory framework for project applications [7]. Group 4: Key Supported Areas and Renovation Focus - Major industrial sectors targeted for equipment updates include petrochemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, and machinery, focusing on replacing outdated equipment and upgrading production lines [8][10]. - Energy facilities will see upgrades in areas such as high-efficiency energy motors and waste heat recovery systems, aimed at reducing energy consumption [8][10]. - Transportation infrastructure will undergo significant updates, including intelligent systems for railways and urban transit, enhancing operational efficiency [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; Treasury bonds are rated for profit - taking [6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar is rated for shock; Iron ore is rated for an upward - trending shock; Coking coal and coke are rated for cautious trial - buying [7][8][10] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is rated for range trading or waiting; Aluminum is rated for waiting; Nickel is rated for shorting on rallies; Tin is rated for range trading; Gold and silver are rated for range trading [12][14][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is rated for an upward - trending shock; Caustic soda is rated for shock; Styrene is rated for shock; Rubber is rated for an upward - trending shock; Urea and methanol are rated neutral; Polyolefins are rated for a downward - trending shock; Soda ash is rated for waiting and exiting [22][24][26][27][30][31][33][34] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are rated for an upward - trending shock; Apples and jujubes are rated for shock [36][37] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs and eggs are rated for shorting on rallies; Corn is rated for range trading; Soybean meal and oils are rated for an upward - trending shock [39][41][42][44][45][46] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market situation of each product from aspects such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international events, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis results [1][6][8] Summaries by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to factors such as the Fed's "renovation gate", the European Central Bank's interest - rate policy, China's policy adjustments, and market sentiment changes [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a weak shock. It is recommended to preserve strength and wait for better opportunities to enter the market for allocation due to the influence of investors' behavior and the performance of large - category assets [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is in a shock state. The raw materials drive the steel price up, but the supply - demand contradiction in the off - season is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting futures while going long on the spot [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price is in an upward - trending shock. The policy expectation at the end of the month is enhanced, the demand is relatively strong, and the supply is stable. It is expected that the price will continue to be strong [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand, and the short - term price support is strong. The coke market has obvious supply - demand game characteristics. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as the progress of coal - mine resumption, the continuity of coke price increases, and steel - mill profits [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level shock. Factors such as the US tariff policy, domestic supply - side reform, and seasonal demand changes affect the price. It is recommended for range trading or waiting [12] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level shock. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory accumulation [14] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply in the nickel industry is excessive, and the price is expected to be in a shock state. It is recommended to short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is gradually improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of precious metals are in a shock state. The US economic data and tariff policy expectations affect the price. It is recommended for range trading [20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but the policy expectation is dominant, and the price is in an upward - trending shock. It is necessary to pay attention to the support at 5150 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is in a shock state, and the 09 contract temporarily pays attention to 2500 - 2700 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental support is limited, and the macro - environment is warm. The price is in a shock state, and it temporarily pays attention to 7300 - 7700 [26][27] - **Rubber**: The raw materials are firm, and the inventory shows a small - scale de - stocking trend, but the market sentiment is weakening. The price is in an upward - trending shock, and it pays attention to the pressure at 15000 [27][29] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the de - stocking trend continues. The price is expected to be in a shock state, with a reference range of 1680 - 1850 [30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, the demand of the methanol - to - olefins industry increases slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a shock state [32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a small - scale de - stocking. The price is expected to return to the fundamentals, with a short - term rebound but limited strength [32][33] - **Soda Ash**: Affected by the news of the work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, the futures price rises sharply. It is recommended to wait and exit the market [34][35] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation changes, the downstream consumption is light, but the spot market is tight. The price is expected to be in an upward - trending shock [36] - **Apples**: The trading in the production area is on - demand, the supply in the early - maturing fruit market is limited, and the price is expected to be in a shock state [37] - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujube growth is in the physiological fruit - dropping stage, the arrival volume in the sales area is small, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure exists, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 and 11 contracts and wait and see for the 01 contract [39][40] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is weakened, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and wait for buying opportunities at low prices for the 12 and 01 contracts [41][42] - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game intensifies, and the price is in a range shock. It is recommended to be cautious in going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread opportunity [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is in a shock state. The medium - and long - term supply gap exists, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [45][46] - **Oils**: The prices of various oils are in an upward - trending shock. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the corresponding intervals [46][51]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and the transformation of traditional industries to revitalize the economy in Shanxi and other central regions of China [1][2] - The restructuring of industrial foundations is identified as a key engine for the rapid rise of central regions, with a focus on upgrading traditional industries like steel and machinery to high-end, intelligent, and green production [1][2] - The article highlights the need for a comprehensive innovation support system to overcome challenges such as talent outflow and financial shortcomings, which are critical for achieving breakthrough growth in the central region [2] Group 2 - The development of a robust innovation ecosystem is crucial for the rise of the central region, facilitating the integration of industry, academia, and research to accelerate the transformation of scientific achievements into practical applications [2] - The article calls for a balanced approach that leverages both effective market mechanisms and proactive government involvement to create a conducive environment for enterprises to innovate and compete fairly [2] - The central region's development is framed as a grand systemic project that requires addressing deep-seated institutional issues and focusing on key areas to foster high-quality growth [2]

Group 1 - The article suggests that the sectors of civil explosives, cement, and shield tunneling related to the Yajiang theme are unattractive, with a majority of players lacking the necessary qualities for investment [1] - The market is believed to be entering a second phase, with a reference to historical experience indicating that the starting point for this phase is in July [1] - Key industries discussed include innovative pharmaceuticals, upstream computing power (such as optical connections and PCBs), banking, consumption, and wind power, with cyclical basic industries expected to shine in the second phase [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that non-ferrous metals have shown significant recovery, which is seen as a characteristic of the bull market entering its second phase [1] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is linked to the CXO model, which is also breaking into the second phase, indicating a broader expansion of this sector [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks that show strong volume and a significant breakthrough into new highs, suggesting that only those with exceptional performance should be considered for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation suggests a potential bull market, but caution is advised as corrections are likely to occur after initial gains [1][2][12]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Many investors are eager to enter the market, indicating a bullish sentiment, but the current position may require either increasing or decreasing holdings depending on market direction [1][2]. - The banking sector has seen significant gains, with bank stocks rising over 50%, contributing to overall index increases [18]. - Small-cap stocks have also experienced considerable trading activity and price increases due to ample liquidity in the market [18]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical analysis of Japan's Nikkei 225 index shows that while there were significant rebounds, they were often followed by downturns due to underlying economic issues such as bad debts and deflation [2][3]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown more stable long-term returns, benefiting from a healthy economic environment and technological advancements [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a general belief among investors that a bull market is underway, but many remain hesitant to commit large positions due to past market experiences and fears of further downturns [9][19]. - The current market behavior is characterized by slow, steady gains rather than explosive growth, leading to a cautious approach among investors [9][20]. Group 4: Sector Performance - Various sectors, including steel, coal, and photovoltaics, have seen a resurgence due to recent market dynamics, indicating a broad-based recovery [18]. - The construction materials sector has also benefited from significant investments, such as the 1.2 trillion yuan project in hydropower, which has positively impacted related industries [18].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the phenomenon of "involution" in various industries within the A-share market, particularly emphasizing the midstream manufacturing sector's more pronounced competition compared to upstream resource industries. It notes that the willingness to expand production has significantly decreased across most industries, with over half showing strong capacity for expansion [1][2]. Existing Capacity Utilization Level - The industry capacity utilization rate is calculated using the Cobb-Douglas production function, measuring the ratio of actual output to potential maximum output under given capital and labor factors. As of Q1 2025, most industries are operating at historically low capacity utilization levels, with only the home appliance and electronics sectors showing upward trends [1]. Potential Incremental Capacity Level - The marginal changes in industry capacity will influence capacity utilization trends, particularly the timing of turning points. The willingness to expand production is assessed through the historical ratio of capital expenditures to depreciation. As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historically low levels of expansion willingness, except for utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals, which show relatively stronger willingness. The expansion capacity is primarily determined by current cash reserves and cash flow, with most primary industries at historically high levels of expansion capacity [2]. Historical Capacity Clearing in Different Industries - In emerging industries, the clearing signal is linked to cash capability and a drop in expansion willingness. For instance, the solar industry experienced a rapid decline in capacity utilization from 2011 to 2015, reaching a low point in Q1 2013, followed by two years of low-level fluctuations until significant relief in overcapacity occurred in Q2 2014 when both cash capability and expansion willingness dropped to 0%. In traditional industries like steel and coal, the clearing signal is an improvement in cash capability, with both industries undergoing a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, leading to a "V" shaped trajectory in capacity utilization [3]. Current Capacity Clearing Trajectory - Drawing from past experiences, the report discusses the current capacity clearing trajectory. In the renewable energy sector, lithium battery and solar capacity utilization rates have reached historical lows, with lithium's potential incremental capacity and utilization rates declining earlier than solar. Both sectors' expansion willingness is nearing 0% for the first time in a decade, while cash capability remains around historical median levels. Traditional industries, such as steel and coal, are not facing severe overcapacity issues like in previous cycles, with current capacity utilization rates approaching 19-year lows, and signs of improving cash capability in basic chemicals and steel [4].