Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - In August, new construction and completion in the real estate sector continued to hit bottom, with ongoing pressure on sales volume and prices. The new construction area from January to August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a 20.3% decline in August alone. Cement production also saw a year-on-year decline of 4.8% from January to August, with a 6.2% drop in August [5][6] - The report recommends focusing on special fabrics and the African supply chain, with leading companies in the existing market being the main investment theme for the year [2][9] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure on sales volume and prices, with national commodity housing sales amount and area decreasing by 7.3% and 4.7% year-on-year respectively from January to August. The decline in sales accelerated in August, with sales amount and area down by 14.0% and 10.6% respectively [6][7] Cement Market - Cement shipments showed a slight recovery in September, with an average shipment rate of approximately 48%, up by 1.6 percentage points month-on-month but down by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of cement increased by 0.5% month-on-month as companies pushed for price increases to enhance profitability [7][24] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market experienced mixed price movements, with slight improvements in shipments but overall cautious price adjustments. The inventory levels remain high, and the market sentiment is generally cautious, with production capacity pressures persisting [8][40] Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in special fabrics such as China National Materials Technology and in the African supply chain like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing. These companies are expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and overseas expansion [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [7] - Short - term outlook for each variety: - Steel: Oscillating [9] - Iron ore: Oscillating [10] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [11] - Coke: Oscillating [13] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [14] - Glass: Oscillating [15] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a minor impact on the futures prices of the sector, but the prices of sector varieties still have support due to the marginal improvement in the industrial chain during the peak season and the market's expectations for the fourth - quarter important meetings [2] - Overall, in the short term, the "anti - involution" factor causes market fluctuations, but based on the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals, the callback space is limited. With the positive expectations of domestic important meetings in the fourth quarter and overseas interest rate cuts, prices are expected to rise steadily [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Shipments have declined but remain at a high level. The arrival volume has been affected by typhoons. Demand remains high, and the pre - National Day restocking expectation still exists. The fundamentals are healthy, and prices are supported [3] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [3] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The work plan has a certain negative impact on the furnace charge end, but before the National Day, the demand is well - supported, and with the cost support from the stable and rising coal prices, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [3] - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" policy remains the main line. The fundamentals are healthy, and with the pre - National Day restocking by the mid - and downstream, the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [3] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price to some extent, but the future supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price may decline after the peak season [3] - Ferrosilicon: The peak - season expectation supports the price, but the future supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price may face downward pressure after the peak season [3] 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline oscillatingly [4] 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, the spot - futures trading volume has slightly increased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [7] 3.6 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: Spot market transactions are generally weak. The peak - season demand recovery is less than expected, and inventories are at a moderately high level. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - Iron ore: Overseas shipments have slightly declined, and the arrival volume has increased. Demand is supported in the short term, and inventories are at a moderate level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - Scrap steel: Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased, and inventories have increased slightly. The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices follow finished products [11] - Coke: Supply remains stable at a high level, and demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [13] - Coking coal: Supply recovery is slow, and demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [14] - Glass: Demand is in the off - season, and supply has uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Soda ash: Supply capacity has not been cleared, and demand is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to oscillate [18] - Manganese silicon: Market supply pressure is increasing, and the future price may decline [19] - Ferrosilicon: Supply is increasing, and demand growth is limited. The price may face downward pressure after the peak season [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided in the given reports. Core Views Polysilicon - The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The downstream component inventory is high and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national policies, actual production rates of polysilicon enterprises, and inventory digestion and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Industrial Silicon - In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and prices may turn to oscillation, with the main price range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter production reduction rhythm of silicon material and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The market is weak. There is still an over - supply problem. In the medium term, demand will remain at the previous rigid level. The market can be shorted on rebounds. - Glass: The market is also weak. The spot market transaction is sluggish, and the industry needs capacity clearance. Short - term sentiment may drive the market, and mid - term demand in the peak season should be monitored [4]. Rubber - Affected by typhoon weather, short - term rubber prices are strongly oscillating, with the 01 contract in the range of 15000 - 16500. Future attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season and the possible impact of La Nina on supply [5]. Logs - In the current "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, with the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves. The strategy is to go long on dips when the price is below 800 yuan [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - N - type re -投料 average price remained at 52650 yuan on September 22. N - type granular silicon average price was 49500 yuan/ton. N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420% to 1660 yuan [1]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract decreased by 3.24% to 50990 yuan on September 22. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 37.50% [1]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - Silicon wafer production increased by 0.29% to 13.92 GW, and polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 tons [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - Polysilicon production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 tons, imports decreased by 9.63% to 0.10 tons, exports increased by 40.12% to 0.30 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis of Main Contracts - The price of East - China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon increased by 1.60% to 8500 yuan on September 22. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 1122.22% [2]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 60.00% to - 20 [2]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 tons. The national start - up rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87 [2]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 tons on a weekly basis, and social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 tons [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North - China glass quote remained at 1150 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 decreased by 1.04% to 1329 yuan [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North - China soda ash quote remained at 1300 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 1.63% to 1384 yuan [4]. Supply - Soda ash start - up rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and weekly production decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 tons [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80 ten - thousand standard boxes, and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 tons [4]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year for the Current Month) - New construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, and construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05% [4]. Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 14700 yuan on September 22. The whole - latex basis decreased by 9.58% to - 915 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 33.33% to 10 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 600.00% to 30 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's production in July increased by 1.61% to 421.60 tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 12.09% to 197.50 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - Bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.95% to 286639 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3.07% to 44553 tons [5]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter on September 22, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main standard delivery spot products remained unchanged [7]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.114 on September 22, and the import theoretical cost was 797.43 yuan [7]. Port Shipping Volume and Departure Ship Numbers - Port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea decreased by 3.87% to 173.3 million/cubic meters in August [7]. Main Port Inventory - As of September 19, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 292 million cubic meters, a decrease of 100,000 cubic meters from the previous week [7]. Daily Outbound Volume - As of September 12, the daily outbound volume of logs was 5.98 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.31 million cubic meters from the previous week [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is facing increasing supply pressure, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in Q3 and greater surplus pressure in Q4. Brent is expected to maintain a weak pattern, with attention on the support near $65.6 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market has increasing supply and weak demand. Short - term spot prices are expected to run weakly, and the futures are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6]. - The fuel oil market has high - sulfur inventories suppressing prices, and low - sulfur supply increasing with no specific demand drivers. It is expected to be weakly volatile [8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by macro factors and oil prices. PX supply is expected to increase, and PTA supply and demand contradictions are expected to ease. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [11][13]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and low - level port inventories. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - The short - fiber market has low processing fees and weak downstream demand. It is expected to be weakly volatile [17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market has a transition from peak to off - peak demand, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level [19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are affected by macro and supply - demand factors. Supply is expected to increase, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [24][26]. - The propylene market has an expected increase in supply and weak downstream demand. Prices are under pressure [28]. - The glass market has a marginal weakening of procurement sentiment. It is expected to be volatile before the festival [31][32]. - The soda ash market has high - level supply and stable demand. Before the festival, prices are expected to be stable, and after the festival, attention should be paid to policy and mid - stream pressure [34][35]. - The urea market has a loose supply and weak demand. It is expected to be weakly volatile [37][38]. - The methanol market has an increase in supply and high - level port inventories. The rebound height is limited, and it is recommended to short at high levels [40]. - The offset - printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and limited demand. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [42][43]. - The pulp market has high port inventories and weak demand, but there is support below. It is recommended to try long positions in the SP 11 contract [46]. - The log market has a supply - demand double - weak situation. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can place a small number of long positions [49][50]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have inventory changes and macro factors affecting prices. It is recommended to hold short positions in the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [52][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decrease in capacity utilization and inventory changes. It is recommended to hold short positions in the BR 11 contract [55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 settled at $62.64, down $0.04 (- 0.06%); Brent2511 settled at $66.57, down $0.11 (- 0.16%); SC2511 fell to 484.2 yuan/barrel, and 477.5 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3387 points (- 0.41%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3329 points (- 0.69%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 closed at 2772 (- 0.22%) at night, LU11 closed at 3363 (- 0.30%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo market had specific month - spreads [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 closed at 6592 (- 0.03%) during the day and 6562 (- 0.46%) at night; TA601 closed at 4586 (- 0.39%) during the day and 4564 (- 0.48%) at night. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 closed at 4268 (- 0.67%) during the day and 4249 (- 0.45%) at night. Spot and futures basis and prices were provided [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 closed at 6344 (- 0.91%) during the day and 6318 (- 0.41%) at night. Spot prices in different regions decreased [16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 closed at 5816 (- 0.89%) during the day and 5796 (- 0.34%) at night. Spot market had an acceptable trading atmosphere [19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 (- 0.75%) during the day and 5905 (- 0.27%) at night; EB2511 closed at 6928 (- 0.92%) during the day and 6901 (- 0.39%) at night. Spot prices and inventories changed [22][23]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 closed at 6424 (- 0.59%) during the day and 6401 (- 0.36%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different trends [27]. - **Glass**: The glass 01 contract closed at 1199 yuan/ton (- 1.40%), 1179 yuan/ton (- 1.67%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different performance [29]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash 01 contract closed at 1293 yuan (- 1.9%), 1276 yuan (- 1.3%) at night. Spot prices in different regions changed [33]. - **Urea**: The urea futures closed at 1660 (- 0.06%). Spot prices decreased across the board [35][36]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures closed at 2349 (- 0.17%). Spot prices in different regions were provided [38][39]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: OP2601 was volatile and closed at 4234 at night. Market and raw material prices were stable [40]. - **Pulp**: The SP 11 contract closed at 4986, down 22 points (- 0.4%). Imported pulp prices in different varieties had different trends [43]. - **Log**: The 11 - month log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.44%. Spot prices were stable [46]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU 01 closed at 15600, down 15 points (- 0.10%); NR 11 closed at 12455, up 30 points (+ 0.24%); BR 11 closed at 11500, down 5 points (- 0.04%). Spot and futures prices in different varieties were provided [50][51][53]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. The net long positions of traders in crude - oil futures and options increased. Middle - East oil - producing countries increased production, and the demand peak season ended [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: In different regions, factors such as rainfall, refinery production resumption, and project construction affected supply and demand and prices [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries had maintenance and damage incidents, and Singapore's spot - window transactions were limited [7]. - **PX & PTA**: PTA plants had restart, maintenance, and load - reduction situations due to different reasons [10][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the downstream polyester sales had different performances [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream polyester sales had different performances, and the short - fiber factory prices decreased [16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes decreased slightly, and a 60 - ton bottle - chip device in Jiangyin was under maintenance [19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene had changes in plant maintenance, production, and port inventories [23][24][25]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene and propane - dehydrogenation operating loads increased [28]. - **Glass**: There were news about financial and industrial policies, and different regions' glass markets had different performances [29][30]. - **Soda Ash**: Some soda - ash plants resumed production, and the total inventory decreased [34]. - **Urea**: The daily production increased, and the开工 rate was high. The inventory of production enterprises increased [36][37]. - **Methanol**: International methanol production decreased, and some Iranian devices had problems [39]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: A paper - making project of Jindong Paper reached a milestone, and the export volume and price of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased [40][41]. - **Pulp**: The import volume of bleached pulp and wood chips decreased in August, and the central bank official made a statement [44][45]. - **Log**: The number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs increased, and the inventory decreased [47]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: An Indian tire company adjusted its export strategy due to US tariffs [52][54]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: The month - spread of Brent was stable, while that of Dubai weakened. Supply pressure increased, and the price was expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory trends were different. Futures prices were expected to be weakly volatile [5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur inventories suppressed prices, and low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand drivers [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by macro and oil - price factors, PX supply increased, and PTA supply - demand contradictions eased [11][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply was expected to increase, and port inventories were at a low level. Prices were expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Processing fees were low, and downstream demand was weak. It was expected to be weakly volatile [17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Demand transitioned from peak to off - peak, and processing fees were expected to fluctuate at a low level [19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, supply increased, and prices were expected to be weakly volatile [24][26]. - **Propylene**: Supply was expected to increase, and downstream demand was weak. Prices were under pressure [28]. - **Glass**: Procurement sentiment weakened marginally. It was expected to be volatile before the festival [31][32]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply was at a high level, and demand was stable. Before the festival, prices were expected to be stable, and after the festival, attention should be paid to policy and mid - stream pressure [34][35]. - **Urea**: Supply was loose, and demand was weak. It was expected to be weakly volatile [37][38]. - **Methanol**: Supply increased, and port inventories were at a high level. The rebound height was limited [40]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply increased slightly, and demand was limited. It was recommended to short the 01 contract [42][43]. - **Pulp**: Port inventories were high, and demand was weak, but there was support below [46]. - **Log**: Supply - demand was double - weak. It was recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors could place a small number of long positions [49][50]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Inventory changes and macro factors affected prices. It was recommended to hold short positions in the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [52][53]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral: Narrow - range oscillation, focus on the support of Brent near $65.6 per barrel; Arbitrage: Gasoline and diesel cracks were weak; Option: Wait and see [2]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: The asphalt - oil spread was weakly volatile; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options for BU2512 [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options for FU01 at high levels [9]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [19][20]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [24][26]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral: It is recommended to short on rebounds, not to chase shorts; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Not mentioned [29]. - **Glass**: Unilateral: The price is expected to be stable before the festival; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [33]. - **Soda Ash**: Unilateral: Stable before the festival, pay attention to policy and mid - stream pressure after the festival; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [35]. - **Urea**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [38]. - **Methanol**: Unilateral: Short at high levels, not to chase shorts; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell call options [40]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral: Short the 01 contract based on the lower limit of the spot - market price; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options [43]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral: Try long positions in the SP 11 contract, enter gradually based on last week's low; Arbitrage: Wait and see, focus on the 11 - 1 reverse spread; Option: Wait and see [46]. - **Log**: Unilateral: Wait and see, aggressive investors can place a small number of long positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [50]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral: Hold short positions in the RU 01 contract, wait and see for the NR 11 contract; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [53].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the soda ash industry has been alleviated in the short - term, but the supply is still in surplus, and the market pattern of oversupply has not been effectively improved. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and strengthen. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes [8]. - It is expected that the main contract of glass futures will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On September 22, the price of the main soda ash futures SA601 contract decreased after rising, with a closing price of 1,293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 1.44%, and an increase in positions of 38,105 lots [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production decreased to 745,700 tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease. Factory inventories decreased to 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 41,900 tons from last Thursday. Total shipments reached 787,600 tons, a 0.25% week - on - week increase, and the overall shipment rate was 105.62%, a 2.39 - percentage - point increase [8]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes [8]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: Supply showed a slight increase but remained at a low level. Spot prices rebounded, and industry profits improved. Deep - processing orders remained stable, mainly for rigid demand, and inventories started to accumulate again. The supply pressure of float glass has eased marginally, and the cost has certain support, but the demand is weak. The photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The main contract of glass futures is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventories, central China heavy soda market prices, and flat glass production, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [12][14][20]

Price Trends - Traditional industry prices show signs of recovery in September, with cement prices in East China rising to 428 CNY/ton, up 3 CNY/ton, and in Southwest China to 479 CNY/ton, up 14 CNY/ton[103] - Steel prices have improved, with rebar price index increasing by 23 CNY/ton to 3312.2 CNY/ton, hot-rolled prices up 15.6 CNY/ton to 3495.4 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled prices up 25.8 CNY/ton to 3980.6 CNY/ton[111][115] - Float glass prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching 1163 CNY/ton, up 3 CNY/ton[123] New Energy Sector - Photovoltaic product price index has increased by 3.29% to 15.2% since July, with polysilicon prices rising 55% to 6.54 USD/kg and domestic polysilicon prices up 41.1% to 6.9 USD/kg[127][130] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased by 20.5% to 72,400 CNY/ton[134] Production and Capacity Utilization - Steel mill capacity utilization rose to 86.03%, up 0.1 percentage points, while rebar capacity utilization increased to 42.95%, up 0.65 percentage points[42][17] - Cement clinker capacity utilization decreased to 53.06%, down 2.63 percentage points[66] Economic Indicators - The average daily output of crude steel in early September was 2.087 million tons, up 140,000 tons from late August, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%[70] - The average daily output of cement reached 15.759 million tons, up 163,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 32.3%[93]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The building materials sector has shown resilience with a slight increase in prices and demand, particularly in cement, glass, and fiberglass, indicating potential for recovery [4][11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand policies and anticipates further implementation of these policies to support the industry [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The building materials sector (SW) experienced a weekly increase of 0.43%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which decreased by -0.44% and -0.18% respectively [4] - Cement prices have shown a slight increase, with the national average price at 345.7 RMB/ton, up by 1.7 RMB/ton from the previous week, but down by 35.8 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [4][18] 2. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The average cement shipment rate is approximately 48.3%, with a slight increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week [24] - The report anticipates a rebound in cement prices due to seasonal demand and industry self-discipline [11][17] 2.2 Glass - The average price of float glass is reported at 1208.0 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 10.9 RMB/ton, but a year-on-year decrease of 31.3% [4] - The report suggests that the glass industry is facing a supply-demand stalemate, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints tighten [13] 2.3 Fiberglass - The report indicates that the fiberglass sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with mid-term improvements anticipated as supply pressures ease [12] - The demand for electronic fiberglass products is expected to rise, driven by advancements in technology and new applications [12] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report highlights the ongoing government efforts to stimulate domestic demand, which are expected to positively impact the building materials sector [14] - The anticipated policies for 2024 and 2025 are expected to further enhance consumer confidence and demand for home improvement materials [6][14] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the cement sector such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Shanshui Cement, as well as fiberglass companies like China Jushi [11][12][13] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the home improvement sector that are well-positioned to benefit from government policies and market recovery, such as Oppein Home Group and Arrow Home [14][15]