1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, short - term policy expectations support the market, but weak fundamentals limit the upside. Wait for policy implementation after the Two Sessions and inventory depletion speed [3] - For iron ore, non - mainstream ore shipments remain high, suppressing price upside. The Iran situation provides short - term support, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - For coal and coke, from March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - For ferroalloys, short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - For soda ash, there are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - For glass, actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3131 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from March 3 [4] - **Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month spread was 60 yuan/ton on March 4, up 2 yuan from March 3 [4] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions were reported. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton on March 4, up 1 yuan from March 3 [9] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Non - mainstream ore shipments are high, and the Iran situation provides short - term support. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 717.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from March 3 [23] - **Fundamentals**: Data on daily average iron water production, port throughput, and inventory were reported. For example, the daily average iron water production on February 27, 2026, was 233.28 tons, up 2.79 tons from the previous week [27] Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: From March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - **Prices**: The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 203.5 yuan/ton on March 4, down 5.5 yuan from March 3 [34] - **Spot and Profit**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and import profits were reported. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1520 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [38] Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - **Data**: The daily data of silicon iron and silicon manganese, including basis, month - to - month spreads, and spot prices, were reported. For example, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 116 yuan/ton on March 3, down 2 yuan from March 2 [51] Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: There are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1203 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from March 3 [70] - **Spot and Spreads**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price spreads were reported. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [70] Glass - **Market Outlook**: Actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1038 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from March 3 [94] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions were reported. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on February 27, 2026, was 103 [95]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting a collective rise in major indices and significant gains in raw material sectors such as chemicals, oil and gas, steel, and non-ferrous metals [2] - Predictions indicate that the market may enter a "two sessions market" characterized by "oscillating upward" trends starting from March 4, with sectors related to commodities, consumer demand, AI computing, and infrastructure beginning to gain momentum [2] Group 2 - The article presents data from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that in January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month but decreased by 1.4% year-on-year [3] - The analysis indicates that while consumer demand is recovering, the core CPI's mild increase reflects ongoing challenges in stabilizing domestic demand [3][4] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that rising prices signal a boost in demand, which can enhance corporate operating rates and stimulate investment expectations, thus serving as a positive signal for listed companies [5] - It is noted that persistent low PPI can dampen corporate investment enthusiasm, despite nominal interest rates being lowered, as actual financing costs remain high, affecting future expectations [12] Group 4 - The article outlines the need for proactive fiscal policies to drive demand, suggesting that fiscal spending should focus on public services and shortfall areas, while monetary policy should ensure relative liquidity [13][14] - It highlights the importance of increasing income levels for low-income groups to enhance consumption capacity, particularly through social security reforms [19] Group 5 - The article discusses the challenges of investment decline, attributing it to factors such as deep adjustments in the real estate sector, overcapacity in low-end manufacturing, and insufficient investment in high-end manufacturing [20] - It suggests that improving the business environment and encouraging private investment are crucial for reversing negative investment growth trends [20] Group 6 - The article mentions that the capital market's core attractions for 2026 lie in sectors driven by domestic demand, artificial intelligence, and new infrastructure, with a structural opportunity emerging from a new wave of technological innovation [22] - It notes that the recent bull market was driven by policy guidance and corrections of unreasonable pricing, with institutional investors playing a stabilizing role [22]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to significant fluctuations in the global energy and chemical markets, with rising prices for key products in the energy and chemical sectors. The report suggests focusing on high-dividend oil and gas stocks, improving profitability in coal-to-olefins, coal-to-methanol, urea, and bromine, and the potential competitive advantage for domestic companies in Europe due to the impact on natural gas chemicals [1]. Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has caused a spike in oil prices, with Iran's oil production expected to be 3.37 million barrels per day by 2025, accounting for 4.3% of global production. Current production remains stable, with January 2026 figures showing 3.3 million barrels per day [1]. - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for oil transport, with 20.1 million barrels per day passing through, representing 26.6% of global maritime oil trade. Any disruption could lead to significant supply delays and increased transportation costs, pushing global energy prices higher [1]. - Current oil prices around $80 per barrel reflect some expectations of Middle Eastern supply losses, with future prices dependent on geopolitical developments. If negotiations progress, prices may drop to the $60-$70 range; if the Strait remains blocked, prices could rise to $90-$100 [1]. Group 2: Natural Gas Market Impact - Qatar Energy announced a halt in LNG production due to military attacks, impacting about 20% of global LNG supply. This, combined with low European gas inventories and increased demand from China, is expected to keep natural gas prices strong in the short term [2]. - The geopolitical situation has led to a significant reduction in LNG supply, with Qatar being a major player in the market. The combination of supply disruptions and seasonal demand is likely to maintain upward pressure on prices [2]. Group 3: Methanol and Urea Market Trends - Iran's methanol production capacity is significant, with 1,739 million tons per year, and the country accounts for 59.9% of the Middle East's methanol capacity. The expected import volume for China in 2025 is 14.41 million tons, with 69.4% coming from the Middle East [3]. - The geopolitical tensions may lead to a decrease in methanol shipments from the Middle East, potentially resulting in higher prices due to supply constraints and demand recovery [3]. - Iran is a major urea producer, with a capacity of nearly 9 million tons per year. Recent geopolitical changes have caused uncertainty in urea production and exports, which could lead to a temporary supply gap in the international market, pushing prices higher [4]. Group 4: Chemical Industry Challenges - The European chemical industry faces uncertainty due to rising natural gas prices, which account for about 30% of direct raw materials. The impact of the ongoing geopolitical situation could mirror past energy crises, affecting production capacities for key chemicals like methionine and vitamins [5][6]. - The rising costs of shipping and extended delivery times due to geopolitical tensions may lead to increased bromine prices, as Israel and Jordan are major suppliers, and any disruptions could create supply shortages [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Pure benzene is mainly driven by cost, and its upward elasticity depends on the realization of refinery load reduction and the sustainability of downstream profit repair. The supply pressure is not significantly relieved in the short term, but the demand structure is acceptable. [3] - Styrene is supported by cost in the short term and oscillates strongly. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of maintenance and the sustainability of 3S demand. The inventory is in the seasonal rebuilding stage, and the short - term supply - demand structure is slightly loose. [3] Group 3: Daily Market Summary Fundamentals - On March 3, the main contract of styrene closed up 1.44% at 8081 yuan/ton, and the main contract of pure benzene closed up 3.70% at 6720 yuan/ton. The pure benzene main - contract basis was - 191 yuan/ton (-156), the port inventory was 30.30 tons (-0.10), and the downstream profits were differentiated. The styrene main - contract basis was - 61 yuan/ton (-197), the non - integrated profit was 440 yuan/ton (+72), and the downstream EPS and ABS started to pick up, while PS continued to be at a low level. [2] Views - For pure benzene, crude oil is rising due to the Iran situation, providing cost support, but its own fundamentals are still relatively loose. For styrene, the inventory is in the seasonal rebuilding stage, the basis is weakening, and there is a phased de - stocking expectation in the future. [3] Group 4: Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Price - The price of the styrene futures main contract increased by 1.44% to 8081 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased by 0.25% to 7910 yuan/ton. The price of the pure benzene futures main contract increased by 3.21% to 6761 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price increased by 3.70% to 6720 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil price increased by 6.28% to 71.2 dollars/ton, and the WTI crude oil price increased by 6.63% to 77.7 dollars/ton. [5] Production and Inventory - The styrene production in China increased by 0.98% to 350,000 tons, and the pure benzene production increased by 3.29% to 443,000 tons. The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 7.95% to 109,000 tons, and the pure benzene port inventory in the whole country remained unchanged at 3.05 million tons. [6] Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rate of styrene in the pure benzene downstream increased by 0.68% to 70%, and the capacity utilization rate of EPS in the styrene downstream increased by 2.98% to 56.2%. [7] Group 5: Industry News - WTI April crude oil futures closed down 0.27 dollars, a decline of 0.38%, at 66.31 dollars/barrel. Brent April crude oil futures closed down 0.27 dollars, a decline of 0.38%, at 71.49 dollars/barrel. The US may launch a military strike against Iran on February 23 or 24. The US February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index was 0.2, the highest since July 2025. [8] Group 6: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of aniline, caprolactam, and phenol. [9][12][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Iran crisis has triggered inflation concerns, and the global market has entered a risk-off mode. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short term, but the market may show a "sell the fact" performance. An escalation of the event will further increase the global inflation risk [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, while after the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds. The US 2025 Q4 GDP growth rate was lower than expected, and the January PPI continued to rise. China's January social financing had a good start, indicating that the stable growth policy may be advanced [2]. - There are opportunities for bargain hunting in the commodity market. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous metal sector remain unresolved, and precious metals have configuration value again. In the energy sector, attention should be paid to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation and the "sell the fact" risk. The OPEC+ will increase production from April. Some chemical products are relatively resistant to decline. The agricultural products need to pay attention to weather and pig diseases, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. - The strategy is to go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Iran situation has escalated. The US and Israel carried out an air strike on February 28, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. Multiple energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas have been damaged, affecting the production and supply chain. The main affected varieties include crude oil, methanol, LPG, precious metals, and the shipping sector. The key factors are whether the conflict will turn into a ground war and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - The eurozone's February inflation rebounded unexpectedly, with the core inflation and service inflation higher than the ECB's 2% policy target. The Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in European natural gas and crude oil prices, increasing the "endogenous + imported" inflation pressure [1]. Two Sessions Analysis - During the Two Sessions, the overall A - share index has a negative average increase or decrease, and the commodity sector is under obvious pressure. After the Two Sessions, the stock index strengthens again, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 leading in terms of gains and winning rates, while the commodity sector shows no obvious pattern [2]. Commodity Sector Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain unresolved, with high certainty [3]. - Precious metals: After the adjustment, they have configuration value again [3]. - Energy: Pay attention to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation. The OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day from April, higher than the market expectation of 137,000 barrels per day, and the production increase plan will last until September. Be wary of the "sell the fact" risk, and the long - term increase in Venezuelan production still threatens oil prices [1][3]. - Chemicals: PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [3]. - Agricultural products: Pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases [3]. - Black metals: Focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Important News - The advisor to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and Iran will attack all ships trying to pass through. Trump said he will not stop until the goal is achieved and may send ground troops to Iran if necessary [5]. - The US Federal Appellate Court rejected the Trump administration's request for a tariff refund extension, and a $175 billion refund battle has begun [5]. - The 2026 National Two Sessions will start on March 4. The press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held on March 3 [5]. - The US February ISM manufacturing index has expanded for two consecutive months, and the price index has soared to a nearly four - year high. The Iran conflict may add inflation pressure [5]. - QatarEnergy will stop producing some downstream products in Qatar, including urea, polymers, methanol, aluminum, etc. [5]. - The eurozone's February harmonized CPI preliminary value year - on - year is 1.9%, higher than the expected 1.7% [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China has become an important research and innovation base for BASF, with significant opportunities arising from China's green transformation [1] - BASF's integrated base in Zhanjiang has successfully commenced operations, with a total investment of €8.7 billion planned from 2019 to 2028, serving as a crucial platform for long-term profitability and sustainable growth in the rapidly growing Chinese chemicals market [1] - The Zhanjiang integrated base is characterized by low-carbon production, providing a clear advantage in carbon footprint control, and BASF aims to contribute to China's green transformation through practical actions [1] Group 2 - BASF's Zhanjiang integrated base is expected to become profitable next year, with sales in China currently accounting for 13% of the group's total sales, projected to rise to between 15% and 20% with the base's production [2] - BASF has been operating in China for over 140 years, experiencing significant growth particularly in the last 30 to 40 years, and aims to participate in the growth of the Chinese economy and its customer industries [2] - The era of multinational companies developing products and technologies in their home countries and then transferring them to China has ended, making the "developing in China for China" strategy increasingly important for multinational enterprises [2]

研究院专题报告 能源化工 2026年3月4日 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格证号：F3085283 交易咨询证号：Z0019267 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方 摘要 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2026年3月4日星期三 2月28日，美以突发对伊朗发动袭击，地缘局势发展迅速。同时， 根据国际油轮流量监测系统的实时数据显示，目前位于霍尔木兹海峡 周边海域的油轮航行速度已普遍降至零，显示该地区的航运已陷入停 滞状态。 本周化工期货板块整体表现强势，呈现普涨格局，多个品种触及 涨停板，波动显著放大。其中涨幅较大的品种例如原油、燃料油、PT A等，是原油产业链相关、受油价上涨传导出现上涨，其次是甲醇、塑 料等受伊朗生产和出口受阻而上涨。 微信 在我国进口甲醇的供应来源中，伊朗货源占据了高达60%的比例。 伊朗拥有1700多万吨的甲醇产能，然而，大部分装置在去年年底因限 气问题而被迫停车。直至目前，仍有大约1000万吨的产能尚未重启， 依旧处于停车状态，目前国内甲醇库存处于缓慢去库状态，地缘风险 是支撑其价格高位的重要因素，后续关注伊朗甲醇开工及美伊冲突持 续时间。 截至 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices have rebounded; pork and nickel prices have declined [2] Midstream - PX and pig product processing rates have increased; coal consumption in power plants has risen [3] Downstream - Sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined; the number of domestic flights has decreased [3] Key Events Macro - event - The press conference of the 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held on March 3. The conference will be held from March 4 to March 11 [1] Industry - specific event - On March 3, six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Comprehensive Utilization of Photovoltaic Modules", supporting related enterprises to declare for honors and guiding financial institutions to provide credit support [1] - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, European natural gas prices soared on March 3. The Dutch TTF natural gas futures price for April delivery rose 29.9% to 57.840 euros per megawatt - hour, and the UK natural gas futures price rose 33.92% to 147.430 pence per thermal unit [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 3/3 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2298.6 yuan/ton | 0.94% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.4 yuan/kg | 4.61% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8950.0 yuan/ton | 1.70% | | | Spot price of cotton | 16594.7 yuan/ton | - 0.52% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 17.2 yuan/kg | - 4.44% | | | Spot price of copper | 101821.7 yuan/ton | 0.22% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24386.0 yuan/ton | - 1.04% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 23966.7 yuan/ton | 2.46% | | | Spot price of nickel | 139516.7 yuan/ton | - 3.94% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16712.5 yuan/ton | 0.53% | | Black metals | Spot price of rebar | 3138.5 yuan/ton | 0.98% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 767.0 yuan/ton | - 0.38% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3325.0 yuan/ton | 0.45% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.4 yuan/square meter | 0.00% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 16866.7 yuan/ton | 0.20% | | | China Plastic City price index | 809.2 | 3.14% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 71.2 dollars/barrel | 7.42% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 77.7 dollars/barrel | 9.32% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3386.0 yuan/ton | 11.90% | | | Coal price | 794.0 yuan/ton | - 0.87% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 5396.3 yuan/ton | 1.35% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 7125.0 yuan/ton | 6.21% | | | Spot price of urea | 1858.8 yuan/ton | 2.27% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1202.9 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real estate | National cement price index | 128.0 | - 1.11% | | | Building materials composite index | 113.7 | - 0.03% | | | National concrete price index | 89.8 | 0.00% | [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions are the main drivers of price fluctuations in various commodities. The resolution of military confrontations and the resumption of strait navigation are crucial for the market to return to normal [2]. - The performance of different commodities is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Investors should pay close attention to geopolitical developments and policy changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent oil prices rose sharply, and SC crude oil hit the daily limit. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and supply disruptions are the main reasons. Geopolitical risk premiums will remain high until the military confrontation subsides and strait navigation resumes [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Multiple contracts of FU and LU followed the SC crude oil main contract and rose to the daily limit. The core logic has shifted to the geopolitical conflict. Supply - tightening expectations are strong, and future trends depend on the war situation and the duration of strait blockage [22]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by the Middle - East situation, asphalt prices strengthened, but the increase was milder than that of crude oil and fuel oil. It is in a pattern of "strong cost, weak supply - demand", and will mainly follow cost fluctuations with limited upside space [23]. - **Urea**: The futures market was narrowly volatile, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. In the context of the spring plowing season, the inventory of production enterprises may decline, but the price increase may be limited. The market is expected to oscillate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The night - session price rose and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to a reduction in supply. In the short term, the market may experience pulse - like increases, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the evolution of geopolitical risks [25]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fell significantly. The short - term volatility increased, and the subsequent trend is determined by the war situation. Caution is advised when participating [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices declined. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased economic growth risks and dragged down copper prices. High inventories and uncertainties may cause copper prices to test the MA60 moving - average support [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The market is concerned about supply contractions in the Middle East. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and geopolitical guidance should be continuously monitored [5]. - **Zinc**: The dollar rebounded, and there were concerns about liquidity. The zinc market lacked upward momentum. High zinc prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the inventory increased significantly. The overall rebound of Shanghai zinc is under pressure [8]. - **Lead**: The lead market is in an oversupply situation, with weak external and strong internal prices. There is a certain expectation of inventory reduction, but the actual inventory - reduction rhythm is not smooth. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. The market was actively traded. The nickel market lacks independent driving forces and follows external sentiment, gradually weakening [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices continued to decline. The short - term price may turn to oscillation. Attention should be paid to the MA60 moving - average. Geopolitical conflicts may affect the semiconductor output in East Asia [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures market was weak. The supply increased, and the demand improved marginally. The market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in market risk preferences [16]. - **Coke**: The intraday price oscillated strongly. The first round of price cuts may be implemented. The inventory decreased slightly. The market has expectations for "anti - involution" policies, and the price may be driven up by coking coal [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The intraday price oscillated strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts. The total inventory decreased significantly, and there is a certain expectation of inventory replenishment. The price has improved, and geopolitical news should be monitored [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday price oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts are beneficial to the cost of manganese silicon. The demand is slowly increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The intraday price oscillated upward. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [20]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International events have increased the cost of propylene. The market sentiment has improved, and the inventory reduction has accelerated. However, the high inventory in the polyolefin market poses a supply pressure, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may increase [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Geopolitical conflicts have made PVC prices oscillate strongly. The industry inventory is high, and the demand is in the recovery stage. Caustic soda supply is high, and the price is expected to operate in the bottom range [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The Middle - East situation affects PX and PTA through oil prices and supply concerns. The current PTA processing margin is under pressure, and the price and spread are affected by the Middle - East situation [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a possibility of phased improvement in supply - demand in the second quarter. The Iranian situation has multiple positive effects on ethylene glycol, and the development of the situation should be monitored [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans oscillated strongly at a high level. Brazilian soybean production is expected to decrease. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has increased. The market shows an oil - strong - powder - weak state. Rapeseed meal has stabilized [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Domestic vegetable oils are generally strong, following energy prices. The short - term market is driven by the uncertainty of Middle - East energy. The supply - demand pattern of agricultural products is not tight, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [36]. - **Corn**: The prices at northern ports increased, and the inventory at north - south ports is at a low level. US corn oscillated strongly at the bottom. Dalian corn futures are expected to be strong in the short term [38]. - **Hogs**: The main contract of hogs continued to decline. The spot price fell, and the central government plans to purchase frozen pork. The pig price is at a historical low, and the inventory pressure needs to be relieved. Long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures market adjusted weakly. The spot price adjusted weakly after the Spring Festival. The long - term egg inventory is in a downward trend, and long positions can be considered at low levels [40]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated at a high level. The short - term demand feedback is average. The supply of cotton in the future is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the "Golden March and Silver April" period [41]. - **Sugar**: International sugar production in India and Thailand shows different trends. In China, the market focuses on the expected difference in production. The short - term sugar price faces certain pressure [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price rose significantly. The post - festival demand in the northwest is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are problematic. The de - stocking speed may be affected [43]. - **Timber**: The futures price oscillated. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe the market [44]. - **Pulp**: The domestic pulp port inventory is at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, but the demand is average. The mid - term trend is expected to oscillate within a range [45]. Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Shipping companies are actively raising prices. The short - term futures market may remain strong. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the Middle - East supply chain disruption and its spill - over effects [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell significantly, and overseas stock markets also declined. Geopolitical factors have increased market inflation concerns and raised the threshold for the Fed to cut interest rates. The RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, and the A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the rotation of market styles [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed differentiation. The market may choose a direction after the policy tone of the Two Sessions. The strategy is to oscillate on a single side. The strategy of flattening the yield curve by shorting T and longing TL has a certain cost - performance ratio [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the Middle East geopolitical conflict, it is necessary to use the "risk preference shock" framework for analysis. The current conflict has not shaken the underlying framework of the five major global market macro narratives, but has strengthened the trading priority of the long - term geopolitical narrative. The impact depth of this conflict on the market mainly depends on the disruption degree and duration of the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the conflict and two core signals to determine the peak of the conflict intensity. There is a risk of the risk preference shock evolving into a liquidity crisis [2]. - The Middle East conflict has hit the global market risk preference, and the A - share market has also been affected. The geopolitical risk is high, and the market volatility has increased. It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity, while medium - and long - term bonds show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. - In the commodity market, the prices of various commodities are affected by the Middle East situation. For different varieties, corresponding investment strategies are proposed, such as focusing on structural long - making opportunities for lithium carbonate after the correction, and taking a long - position layout on dips for industrial silicon in the medium term [7][9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Continue to focus on the Middle East situation. The statements of Fed officials show uncertainty about interest rate cuts in 2026 due to the war situation. The Iran situation is tense, with various events such as the destruction of US missile defense systems by Iran, and the consideration of military actions by some countries. The US Senate will vote on the "war powers resolution" [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The strength of the US dollar is supported by Trump's tough stance on the Iran issue and relevant news about the Fed Chairman nominee. The subsequent impact on the US dollar index and the USD/CNY exchange rate depends on whether the conflict is a blitzkrieg or a protracted war. Short - term export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.82 [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The escalation of the Middle East conflict has reduced market risk preference, causing the stock index to fall. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks is high, and it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market did not get a boost from the sharp decline in the A - share market. Short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate has dropped significantly. Affected by the Middle East situation, the market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a phased tightening of liquidity. It is recommended to focus on structural long - making opportunities after the correction and downstream enterprises can replenish inventory at low prices [7]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen. The short - term price of industrial silicon is affected by the macro sentiment and its own weak fundamentals, but there is strong bottom support in the medium and long term. It is recommended to take a long - position layout on dips. The photovoltaic industry needs to wait for capacity clearance and the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation may affect the import and export of the Middle East aluminum industry chain and increase the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of alumina has rebounded, and it is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money put options. For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [12][13]. - **Copper**: The copper price has weakened. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the copper price has fallen below the important support range. It is recommended that non - position holders wait and see or consider buying out - of - the - money call options, and industrial customers can consider replenishing inventory [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is weak in the short term due to liquidity issues and the overall pressure of the sector. It is expected to be strong in the medium term [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel have fallen. The supply - shortage logic has been broken, but the actual industrial impact remains to be seen. The demand is expected to be boosted in the peak season, and the inventory of stainless steel has accumulated recently [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price has dropped sharply and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is tight, and the demand has started to resume work [18][19]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate. The current supply - demand pattern is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [20]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans has risen, and the domestic market has oscillated. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. It is recommended to widen the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [21]. - **Oils**: The oil market is strong due to the geopolitical conflict. The international palm oil supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic oil supply is sufficient. It is expected that the oil price will remain strong in the short term [21][22][23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Middle East conflict has led to concerns about the tightening of the Asian fuel oil supply, supporting the Singapore fuel oil market [25]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is driven by the cost of crude oil. The current terminal demand is low, and the supply is expected to increase. The price will follow the change of crude oil in the future [26]. Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals has fallen sharply due to the delay of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity pressure. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish stance on precious metals and be cautious about short - term adjustment risks. It is advisable to buy on dips and replenish positions step by step [28][29]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is close to the previous low, and the offset paper price is close to the previous high. The pulp inventory pressure is large, and the offset paper supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading for pulp in the short term and try a long - position strategy at low prices in the medium term. For offset paper, it is recommended to try a short - position strategy at high prices [30][31][32]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen. The cost support has been enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and attention should be paid to the refinery start - up changes and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [32][33]. - **LPG**: The LPG market is affected by the US - Iran situation. The market is concerned about the supply from the Middle East, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation [33][35]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact on methanol. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the conflict will affect the main methanol production areas, gas fields, and ports in Iran [35][36]. - **Plastic PP**: The prices of plastic and polypropylene have risen. The rise is driven by cost increase and the improvement of the fundamental supply - demand expectation. It is necessary to be cautious about the market correction risk if the conflict eases [36][38][39]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber price is under pressure, and the synthetic rubber price is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The macro sentiment dominates, and the natural rubber price is expected to oscillate. The butadiene rubber cost is supported, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [39][44][45]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has an impact on the urea market, causing a "collapse of global supply" and an "explosion of domestic sentiment". It is expected to drive a price increase in the domestic market [47][48]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash may be affected by the expected overhaul, and the glass demand has not recovered yet. The supply return expectation and high inventory in the middle stream limit the price increase of glass [48][49]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is affected by the cost and supply - demand. The cost is the dominant factor in the short term. The propane price has risen, and there is an expectation of production reduction in some olefin enterprises [49][50]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak. The market has expectations for infrastructure and real estate policies, but the fundamental pressure of the finished steel still exists. The short - term policy expectations support the market, but the weak fundamentals limit the price increase space [51]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a supply - demand game pattern. The supply pressure persists, and the demand is affected by seasonal restrictions and pessimistic expectations. The price has limited downward space but lacks upward drive [53]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke have risen. The risk assets may fluctuate more violently. The coking enterprises' operating rate is expected to rise slightly, and the coke may face a price cut risk in the future [53][54]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese have risen. The short - term sentiment is strong, but the black metal fundamentals are weak. The silicon manganese is affected by high inventory, and the silicon iron has a better fundamental situation [54][55]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The hog futures price has continued to decline. The piglet market is weak, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main hog futures contract [57][58]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton supply - demand situation is expected to be tight this year. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips and pay attention to the international situation and the US foreign trade policy [58][59][60]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar futures price has basically stood above the 5300 mark. The fundamental situation is favorable, but the international raw sugar price is under pressure. The upward space is expected to be limited [61][62]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price has declined. The egg market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main egg futures contract [62]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price has risen. The market is affected by the fundamentals and delivery issues. The price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 10,000 [69][70]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price has risen slightly. The domestic jujube supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [71][72]. - **Logs**: The log futures price is approaching the previous high. The inventory has increased significantly, and the demand has not recovered significantly. It is recommended to shift from a long - position strategy to a range - trading strategy [73].