Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last Friday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market declined slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. With the landing of the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment became more rational, and the futures market trend started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal demand and the support of cost factors for finished steel prices [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The steel mill profitability rate continues to rise, and although the short - term increase in hot metal may be limited, there is no sign of a rapid decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in terminal demand and the possible risks on the raw material side [6]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the "anti - involution" has not changed the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon. In the future, attention should be paid to the possible marginal weakening of demand. For ferrosilicon, it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. Although the demand in August can provide some support, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in major production areas. For polysilicon, it is expected to increase production in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [14][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is required for a significant increase. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3213 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 94,978 tons, a net increase of 1487 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.61211 million lots, a net decrease of 16,057 lots. The summary price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3428 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.392227 million lots, a net decrease of 36,360 lots. The summary price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks, with the increase further expanding this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the position changed by - 27,288 lots to 308,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 916,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.02 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 3.43% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On August 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated, closing down 0.30% at 6046 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 94 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.06% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. The over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. For ferrosilicon, there has been no significant change, and it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8710 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+ 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 1995 lots to 533,795 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 390 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 190 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50,790 yuan/ton, up 1.36% (+ 680). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,312 lots to 360,328 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 44.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 3790 yuan/ton. It is expected to increase production in August, with inventory likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1181 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1190 yuan, unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a net increase of 2.348 million weight boxes (+ 3.95%) from the previous period, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1235 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons (0.72%) from Monday. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash industry is facing significant challenges due to overcapacity and declining demand from downstream industries, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector, which has led to a collective production cut of 30% in July [1][2]. Industry Overview - The soda ash industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with total domestic soda ash production capacity at 40.78 million tons and demand at over 30 million tons, indicating a surplus [2]. - As of July 31, 2023, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies reached 1.684 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 79% [2]. Market Dynamics - The recent "anti-involution" policy has led to increased volatility in soda ash prices, with a temporary price spike of 200 CNY/ton, but prices have since fallen back below 1200 CNY/ton [2][3]. - The demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further due to the ongoing capacity reductions in the photovoltaic glass sector [2]. Company Actions - Companies like Zhongyan Chemical and Shandong Haihua are investing in natural soda ash production to lower costs and improve competitiveness [1][4]. - Zhongyan Chemical has acquired a natural soda ash mine, while Shandong Haihua is collaborating with Zhongyan to develop natural soda ash resources [5]. Production Costs - The cost of producing soda ash varies significantly by method, with natural soda ash costing between 800-1000 CNY/ton, while ammonia soda costs range from 1100-1450 CNY/ton [4]. - High-cost ammonia and union soda producers are currently operating at a loss, while natural soda producers remain profitable [4]. Future Outlook - The soda ash industry is expected to see a capacity exit of 1.1 million tons and an expansion of 600,000 tons in 2024, with a focus on natural soda ash production [6]. - The proportion of natural soda ash capacity is projected to increase from 16% to 30% in the coming years [6]. Policy Implications - The government is assessing outdated production facilities, which may lead to the phased exit of high-cost production methods [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to promote high-quality development within the industry, encouraging companies to enhance their operational efficiency [8].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Boyuan Chemical (博源化工) for the first half of 2025 shows significant declines in revenue and net profit, indicating challenges in the company's operations and market conditions [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 5.916 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.31% compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 743 million yuan, down 38.57% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin fell to 31.79%, a decline of 28.33% from the previous year [1]. - The net profit margin decreased to 18.21%, down 30.34% year-on-year [1]. - The company reported a total of 652 million yuan in selling, administrative, and financial expenses, which accounted for 11.02% of revenue, a decrease of 8.52% [1]. - Earnings per share dropped to 0.20 yuan, a decline of 37.50% compared to the previous year [1]. Cash Flow and Debt Analysis - Cash and cash equivalents increased by 172.8%, reaching 4.606 billion yuan, primarily due to increased cash from financing activities [3]. - The company’s interest-bearing debt rose by 20.34% to 11.201 billion yuan [1]. - The cash flow from operating activities showed a decrease, with operating cash flow per share at 0.34 yuan, down 6.81% [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing operational management and investor relations to improve investment value [6][9]. - Boyuan Chemical is exploring opportunities in the ASEAN market, where it has a cost advantage in exporting soda ash compared to the U.S. [6]. - The company is committed to green development and is responding to national carbon reduction strategies [6][9]. Industry Context - The soda ash industry is experiencing overcapacity, prompting many large producers to shift towards high-value fine chemicals [6]. - The company is monitoring industry dynamics and adapting its strategies to maintain competitiveness [8].

Group 1 - The chemical sector showed resilience on August 8, with the chemical ETF (516020) fluctuating in the red zone, ultimately closing up by 0.46% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including phosphate fertilizers, soda ash, and spandex, saw significant gains, with Hongda Co. and Boyuan Chemical both rising over 3% [1] - Since July, the chemical ETF has recorded an impressive cumulative increase of 8.3%, outperforming major A-share indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (5.54%) and the CSI 300 Index (4.29%) [4] Group 2 - The chemical sector's price-to-book ratio stands at 2.06, which is at a low point historically, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [5] - The government has been actively addressing "involution" in competition, with multiple departments signaling a crackdown on low-price disorderly competition, which may impact the chemical industry positively [3][6] - Analysts suggest that the chemical sector is likely to experience a replenishment cycle due to anticipated fiscal policy boosts in China and the U.S., alongside a recovery in demand [6] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the sub-sector chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing investors with a strong investment opportunity [7] - The sub-sector chemical index has shown varied annual returns over the past five years, with a notable decline in 2022 and 2023, but a recovery trend is expected [2][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - Supply: Labor return in Cambodia and disrupted rubber tapping in Thailand may lead to a stronger raw material price expectation. Attention should be paid to raw material supply during the peak season [1]. - Demand: Replacement demand shows decent performance, and market trading activity is expected to increase with the implementation of price policies. Winter snow - tire agents are starting to stock up, and order activity is expected to rise in the next period. If raw material supply is smooth during the peak season, consider short - selling opportunities [1]. Log Industry - Supply: Supply pressure may increase. The number of arriving ships at ports will increase this week [3]. - Demand: In August, high - temperature weather leads to a market off - season. Future shipments are expected to decrease, and spot prices remain under pressure. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate widely between 800 - 850 [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: This week, production has rebounded significantly, inventory has increased, and the futures market has weakened. The supply - demand situation shows an obvious surplus. After the second - quarter photovoltaic installation rush, photovoltaic glass capacity growth has slowed, and float glass capacity is stable with future supply - demand pressure. There is no growth expectation for demand. Consider short - selling on price rebounds during the traditional maintenance season in August [4]. - Glass: The futures market has weakened significantly, and market sentiment has declined. After the previous price increase, inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - men, and there may be a rush to sell. Deep - processing orders are weak, and the glass demand side faces pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance. Track policy implementation and downstream stocking performance in August [4]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Supply: Pay attention to the resumption plans of large enterprises in Xinjiang and the progress of the anti - cut - throat competition meeting in the southwest. Under the anti - cut - throat competition policy, the overall price center of industrial silicon may move up. If raw material costs such as coal rise, the price center of industrial silicon is expected to increase [5]. - Price Range: The main price fluctuation range in August may be between 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price falls to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon Industry - Supply - Demand: In August, both supply and demand of polysilicon are increasing, but the supply growth rate is higher. Domestic polysilicon production in July was about 10.78 million tons, and weekly production increased by 4% to 2.65 million tons. August production is expected to be around 12.5 million tons [6]. - Price Strategy: The main price fluctuation range may be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips and buying put options on price increases [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.69% [1]. - The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 130 to - 1125, a decline of 13.07% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to - 975, a decline of 1.56% [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 120, an increase of 7.69% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, a growth of 44.23% [1]. - Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, a decline of 12.03% [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 5798 tons to 640,384 tons, an increase of 0.91% [1]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2509 remained unchanged at 832.5, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 to 840.0, a decline of 0.06% [3]. Supply - In June, port shipping volume increased by 37,000 cubic meters to 1.76 million cubic meters, a growth of 2.12% [3]. - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, a decline of 8.62% [3]. Inventory - As of August 1, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.17 million cubic meters [3]. Demand - As of August 1, the average daily log shipment was 64,200 cubic meters [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China's glass price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.84% [4]. - The glass 2505 contract decreased by 10 to 1309, a decline of 0.76% [4]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - North China's soda ash price remained unchanged at 1350 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change [4]. - The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 12 to 1412, a decline of 0.84% [4]. Supply - Soda ash production increased by 45,000 tons to 744,700 tons, a growth of 6.42% [4]. - Float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons, with a 0.00% change [4]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased by 2.348 million weight - boxes to 61.847 million weight - boxes, an increase of 3.95% [4]. - Soda ash factory inventory increased by 69,300 tons to 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% [4]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - East China's oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change [5]. - The basis of S15530 increased by 45 to 595, an increase of 8.18% [5]. Monthly Spreads - The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 130 to 40, an increase of 144.44% [5]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 41,400 tons to 300,800 tons, a decline of 12.10% [5]. - Xinjiang's industrial silicon production decreased by 43,300 tons to 167,500 tons, a decline of 20.55% [5]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 116,900 tons, a decline of 1.02% [5]. - Social inventory increased by 7000 tons to 547,000 tons, an increase of 1.30% [5]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change [6]. - The N - type material basis increased by 1235 to - 3110, an increase of 28.42% [6]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract decreased by 1235 to 20110, a decline of 2.41% [6]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 2075 to - 10, an increase of 99.52% [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 29,000 tons to 294,000 tons, a growth of 10.94% [6]. - Monthly polysilicon production increased by 49,000 tons to 1.01 million tons, a growth of 5.10% [6]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 4000 tons to 233,000 tons, an increase of 1.75% [6]. - Silicon wafer inventory increased by 9600 GW to 19,110 GW, an increase of 5.29% [6].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a slight increase of 0.15% despite market fluctuations [1][4] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Biyuan Chemical and Hongda Co., have seen significant gains, with increases of 3% and 3% respectively, while Huafeng Chemical and others also reported gains exceeding 1% [1][2] - Salt Lake Co. is actively advancing its 40,000-ton lithium salt integration project, aiming to meet its annual construction goals, which reflects the company's commitment to enhancing its industry positioning [3][4] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) is heavily invested in major stocks, with nearly 50% of its portfolio allocated to large-cap leaders like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on strong market players [4][5] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle due to anticipated fiscal policy support from China and the U.S., alongside the exit of certain European facilities, which may boost demand and improve market conditions [4][5] - The valuation of the chemical ETF indicates a favorable long-term investment opportunity, with the index's price-to-book ratio at 2.06, suggesting a low valuation compared to historical levels [3][4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [3] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [3] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [5] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Supply news has caused fluctuations in the black market, with glass and soda ash showing inventory accumulation and double silicon having high production willingness [1][4] - In the long - term, glass supply and demand remain relatively loose, and soda ash may face increasing inventory pressure [1][2] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have high supply and demand levels, but their prices are affected by multiple factors [4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the glass futures market had narrow - range fluctuations. The opening rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, a 0.34% increase from the previous period, and the manufacturer inventory was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a 2.348 million heavy - box increase [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: There is no policy - based contraction in glass supply, and real - estate has dragged down the rigid demand. Speculative demand has increased, and the factory inventory has slightly accumulated, being at a high level. In the long - term, supply and demand are loose [1] - Strategy: Expect a sideways movement [3] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market trended weakly. The capacity utilization rate was 85.42%, a 5.15% increase from the previous period, production was 744,700 tons, a 44,900 - ton increase, and inventory was 1.8651 million tons, a 69,300 - ton increase [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: Soda ash production is at a high level. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is relatively restricted, but it may further increase in the future. The photovoltaic industry has a production - cut expectation, so soda ash consumption may weaken, and inventory pressure will rise [1][2] - Strategy: Expect a weakly sideways movement [3] Silicomanganese - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market trended weakly. The downstream procurement was normal, with limited price - pressing. The northern market price was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton, and the southern market price was around 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton [4] - Supply and Demand Logic: Recently, the enthusiasm for silicomanganese production has been high, with both supply and demand at high levels. The manufacturer inventory has decreased significantly compared to the previous period and is at a medium level in recent years. The Australian manganese ore shipment has basically recovered, and after the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [4] - Strategy: Bearish [5] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the increase in ferrosilicon futures declined. The market sentiment worsened, but the spot price remained stable. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton [4] - Supply and Demand Logic: Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, and the apparent demand is decreasing. Enterprises have made profits, and demand remains resilient. The factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the long - term, ferrosilicon capacity is relatively loose [4] - Strategy: Bearish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "shock". Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all have a mid - term outlook of "shock" [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand performance of the black building materials industry is weak, and the prices are in high - level shock. Although the fundamentals of individual varieties change little, there are still certain support factors, and the prices may rebound before the spot pressure appears. The market is mainly dominated by capital behavior, and it is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks. Subsequently, the implementation of policies and terminal demand performance should be mainly concerned [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but after the typhoon disturbance, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, and the iron ore port area's total inventory increased, with a limited overall inventory accumulation range [2]. - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises has risen to the highest level in the same period in the past three years. Due to routine maintenance of steel mills, the molten iron output decreased slightly, remaining at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction in the short term due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2]. - **Outlook**: With limited bearish driving forces in the fundamentals, the future price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Supply**: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [2]. - **Demand**: After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [2]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Subsequently, regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal import conditions should be concerned [2]. 3.3 Alloys Manganese Silicon - **Cost**: The price of coke has been continuously increased, and the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The manganese ore market is more wait - and - see, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and the port ore price remains firm [3]. - **Supply - demand**: Steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished products remains stable at a high level. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, in an environment of profit repair, the resumption process of manufacturers continues to advance, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser [3]. - **Outlook**: The contradictions in the current spot fundamentals are limited. In the short term, the price of manganese silicon is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector [3]. Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to accelerate the recovery. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production - restriction requirements [15]. - **Demand**: The output of steel products remains stable at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. In the metal magnesium market, due to tight supply, magnesium plants' price - holding sentiment remains strong, but high - level transactions in the market are relatively cold, and the game between upstream and downstream in the magnesium market continues [15]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the price needs to be viewed with caution, and the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs should be concerned [15]. 3.4 Glass - **Supply**: There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and 1 production line has been cold - repaired. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand has declined, the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass have increased month - on - month, indicating downstream speculative purchases. After the decline of the futures price, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the middle - stream shipments have increased, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply pattern has not changed. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. The output is running at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. Some manufacturers' production has recovered today, and the output is expected to continue to increase in the future [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass. The expected daily melting volume of float glass is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline, falling below 90,000 tons this week, with the current daily melting volume at 89,800 tons. The demand for heavy soda ash has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has weakened, and the overall downstream demand is poor, mainly for periodic restocking [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, after the rapid decline of the price, it is at a discount to the spot price, and it is expected to fluctuate in the future. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.6 Steel - **Supply**: Some steel mills have resumed production, and there is a transfer of molten iron. The output of rebar has increased, and the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased [8]. - **Demand**: Affected by the weakening of the typhoon, the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, but the inventory continues to accumulate. In the off - season, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has decreased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the demand has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated, showing off - season characteristics [8]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution sentiment in the steel and coal industries is still high. Currently, the fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally, but the inventory is low, and there are still production - restriction disturbances before the military parade. The short - term futures price still has support. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the steel mills' production - restriction situation and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Supply**: This week, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the willingness to ship is low. The arrival volume of scrap steel has continued to decline [9]. - **Demand**: The profit of electric furnaces is good, and the daily consumption has increased to a high level in the same period. In terms of blast furnaces, the molten iron output has decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steelmaking has also decreased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process steelmaking has increased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand has increased. The fundamentals have strengthened marginally, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.8 Coke - **Supply**: After the full implementation of the fifth round of price increases, the profits of coking enterprises have been alleviated, and their production starts have improved. The coke output has temporarily stabilized [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a high level. Upstream coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and their inventory has been continuously reduced. Mid - stream futures - spot traders have gradually released their goods, and the arrival of goods at downstream steel mills has improved [9]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and the short - term price still has support. Some coking enterprises still have the intention to increase the price for the sixth round. Subsequently, the possible military parade production - restriction policy should be concerned [9]. 3.9 Coking Coal - **Supply**: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [11]. - **Demand**: The coke output has temporarily stabilized, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [11]. - **Outlook**: Under the influence of over - production verification of coal mines, the recovery of coking coal supply is expected to be slow. With the poor supply expectation, the market sentiment has warmed up. In the short term, the futures price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall [11].

正信期货：纯碱行业格局并未明显改善，供应端产量回升延续高位，需求端多数延续刚需，短期上游库存再度累库且绝对量偏高， 以基本面而言难以提供足够支撑。不过近期盘面依旧受宏观情绪影响明显，随着短期市场情绪走弱，纯碱区间偏弱震荡。 【机构观点】 来源：曲合期货 8月8日早盘，纯碱主力合约延续偏弱走势，目前盘内跌超2%。随着检修企业的陆续恢复，供应呈现一定增加态势，整体产量仍将 延续高位。目前上游库存集中度高且区域性差异依旧，企业新价格成交一般，部分企业库存呈现增加，且运输局部紧张，发货放 缓。需求方面，纯碱需求表现一般，刚需为主，执行前期待发订单，新订单拿货情绪减弱，下游有企业降低原材料库存。短期重碱 下游浮法玻璃及光伏玻璃产能稳定，暂无冷修复产计划，下游刚需消费提升空间不大，仍以低价补库居多。整体来看，纯碱供需偏 弱格局维持，外围因素对市场情绪提振逐渐减弱，市场缺乏新增驱动。预计纯碱期价延续宽幅震荡趋势，短期情绪偏弱。 ...

Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - Monitor the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in major producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.69%. The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 130 to - 1,125, a decline of 13.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to - 975, a decline of 1.56%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 120, an increase of 7.69%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 5 to 1,095, an increase of 0.46% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production was 392,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.23%. Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.03%. India's production was 62,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.82%. China's production was 103,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased by 5,798 tons to 640,384 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,318 tons to 39,716 tons, an increase of 6.20% [1]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure may increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the spot price is still under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 800 - 850 [3]. 2. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Price - The price of Log 2509 remained unchanged at 832.5. The price of Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 to 840, a decline of 0.06%. The price of Log 2601 remained unchanged at 841.5 [3]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.183. The import theoretical cost increased by 13.84 yuan to 818.70 yuan [3]. Supply - In June, the port shipping volume was 1.76 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, a decline of 8.62% [3]. Inventory - As of August 1, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.17 million cubic meters. The inventory in Shandong increased by 20,000 cubic meters to 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04%. The inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 56,000 cubic meters to 960,000 cubic meters, a decline of 5.55% [3]. Demand - As of August 1, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters. The demand last week increased by 10,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Core Viewpoint Soda Ash - The supply is in excess. The spot sales are weak. Consider short - selling at high prices in the short - term and monitor the implementation of policies and the load - regulation of soda ash plants [4]. Glass - The futures price has weakened, and the market sentiment has declined. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. Hold short positions and monitor the implementation of policies and the stocking performance of downstream industries [4]. 2. Summary by Directory Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased, while the price in Central China remained unchanged. The prices of Glass 2505 and Glass 2509 decreased [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of Soda Ash 2505 and Soda Ash 2509 decreased [4]. Supply - The soda ash production rate increased from 80.27% to 85.41%, and the weekly production increased by 45,000 tons to 744,700 tons [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 2.348 million weight - cases to 61.847 million weight - cases, an increase of 3.95%. The soda ash factory inventory increased by 69,300 tons to 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton in August. Consider buying at low prices when the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to position control and risk management [5]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 45 to 595, an increase of 8.18% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 130 to 40, an increase of 144.44%. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 to - 25, a decline of 66.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.10%. The organic silicon DMC production was 199,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.54% [5]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 1,200 tons to 116,900 tons, a decline of 1.02%. The social inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 547,000 tons, an increase of 1.30% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon price fluctuates and declines. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices and buying put options to short at high prices [6]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material increased by 1,235 to - 3,110, an increase of 28.42% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 1,235 to 20,110, a decline of 2.41%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 2,075 to - 10, an increase of 99.52% [6]. Fundamental Data - The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.02 GW, a year - on - year increase of 9.27%. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [6]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 233,000 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 960,000 pieces to 19.11 million pieces, an increase of 5.29% [6].