Investment Rating - The report suggests that the asset revaluation pricing model is suitable for the current macroeconomic environment in China, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this context [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the asset revaluation pricing model is more effective in a low-growth macroeconomic environment, drawing parallels with Japan's market experience [3][4]. - It recommends a shift in focus from net profit growth to asset revaluation growth, particularly for mature industry leaders [4][9]. - The report identifies three key sectors for investment: financial stocks, large-cap stocks, and companies with strong CAPEX and cash return capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Asset Revaluation Pricing - The asset revaluation pricing model is deemed more appropriate for the future performance of A-shares as the Chinese economy transitions to stable growth [4][13]. - The model focuses on retained earnings growth and its impact on net asset value, which is more relevant in a low-growth environment [9][10]. Effectiveness of Asset Revaluation Strategy - The report highlights that the explanatory power of asset revaluation growth for industry performance has increased, making it a more effective fundamental indicator than net profit growth [19][22]. - In 2024, only three industries showed a failure in this logic, indicating a strong correlation between asset revaluation growth and stock price movements [19][22]. Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector is expected to see a broader revaluation beyond just banks, with non-bank financial institutions also having significant revaluation potential [29][33]. - The report notes that the asset revaluation growth for financial stocks is significantly higher than for non-financial sectors, driven by their lower dividend payout ratios [29][33]. Market Trends and Economic Outlook - The report discusses the ongoing market style shifts influenced by economic growth and policy expectations, suggesting a long-term trend towards stability in financial performance [19][22]. - It predicts that the Chinese economy will maintain a growth rate above the global average, despite challenges in the real estate sector and fiscal stimulus [14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial PPI is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations in the upstream [1] - The implementation of employment - policy tools in the service industry should be monitored [1] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - In June 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with urban areas up 0.1%, rural areas down 0.2%, food prices down 0.3%, non - food prices up 0.1%, consumer goods prices down 0.2%, and service prices up 0.5%. The national consumer price in the first half of the year decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, the national industrial producer's ex - factory price decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the industrial producer's purchase price decreased by 4.3% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month [1] 3.1.2. Service Industry - The General Office of the State Council issued a notice to further increase the support for stable employment policies, emphasizing strengthening political responsibility, tracking policy implementation, improving policy tools, strengthening fund supervision, and conducting employment impact assessments [1] 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded [1] - Chemical: The price of PTA has declined [1] 3.2.2. Mid - stream - Chemical: The PX operating rate has seasonally declined slightly and is at the median level in the past three years [2] 3.2.3. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [2] 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the electronics industry has slightly rebounded recently [3] 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical have different degrees of changes from last year to this week, with specific data shown in the table [49] 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various products in industries such as agriculture, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different degrees of year - on - year changes, with specific data shown in the table [50]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.34% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 550.19 million shares and a turnover of 648.98 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 8.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, banking, and oil & petrochemicals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 1.24%, 1.19%, and 0.97% respectively [1] - The real estate sector had a trading volume of 88.46 billion yuan, up by 37.10% from the previous day, with Chongqing Development leading the sector with a rise of 9.94% [1] - The banking sector recorded a turnover of 153.25 billion yuan, an increase of 17.78%, with Minsheng Bank rising by 4.93% [1] - The oil & petrochemicals sector had a turnover of 48.87 billion yuan, up by 16.65%, with *ST Xinchao gaining 5.08% [1] Declining Industries - The defense, textile, and automotive sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 1.24%, 0.78%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - The defense sector had a trading volume of 225.22 billion yuan, down by 30.96%, with North China Longchang falling by 8.13% [2] - The textile sector recorded a turnover of 73.19 billion yuan, down by 14.13%, with Wanlima decreasing by 7.63% [2] - The automotive sector had a turnover of 270.54 billion yuan, down by 19.82%, with Redick declining by 6.84% [2]

Group 1 - China's shipbuilding industry has achieved significant milestones with the launch of the first domestically produced electromagnetic aircraft carrier, the Fujian, the first large cruise ship, the Aida Magic City, and a leading position in large LNG carriers [1] - The "three pearls" symbolize China's innovative development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, showcasing breakthroughs in various fields such as space exploration, nuclear power, and aviation [2][3] - Despite challenges like the pandemic and trade tensions, China continues to advance on the path of innovation-driven development [3] Group 2 - Economic strength underpins China's innovation, with GDP expected to approach 140 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [4] - R&D investment is projected to reach 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a nearly 50% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with R&D intensity nearing OECD averages [5] - The talent pool in China is robust, with educational attainment levels rising and the total number of R&D personnel leading globally [6][7] Group 3 - A conducive innovation ecosystem has been established, with a 73.8% increase in the value added by the core digital economy industries since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [8]

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicator decreased to -0.9, down from -0.65, indicating a bearish outlook [9][11] - The trading volatility between sectors has decreased, reflecting a lack of capital activity and increased divergence in market sentiment [11][17] - The total trading volume of the A-share market showed a gradual decline throughout the week, with the lowest daily trading volume recorded at 1.3335 trillion RMB on Thursday [15][17] Group 2 - The model indicates a preference for large-cap stocks, with the 20-day RSI close to the 60-day RSI level, suggesting potential for continued strength in large-cap stocks [29][35] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as steel, construction materials, and basic chemicals have significantly increased, with construction materials showing a rise of 90.91% [29][30] - The sectors with the strongest short-term trends include banks, communications, media, and non-ferrous metals [29][30]

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250707 美股连涨，非美风偏收紧——港股&海外周 观察 我们对港股持谨慎乐观态度。港股下行有底，关注短暂回调后的或有增 量资金入场。 1、港股还处在震荡趋势中，超宽松的流动性并未流向二级市场股票。 2、外部风险上行。1）美股仍处在反弹趋势中，持续创历史新高。部分 海外机构或将继续回流美股，分散中国资产的关注。2）市场重新关心 美国对等关税议题，担心有变。 3、进入数据验证期，市场将会更关注经济基本面和企业盈利面。最近， 互联网巨头价格战，市场担心二季度企业盈利下滑。 4、随着市场进一步回调，增配红利和自下而上寻找低估股票渐渐成为 共识。部分此前获利了结资金也在寻找合适时机入场增配。 ◼ 美股：事件面及宏观经济韧性，推动美股再度走高。其中道指领涨 2.3%， 标普 500 及纳指分别上涨 1.7%及 1.6%。 特朗普"大美丽"法案"闯关"成功。美国独立日当天（7 月 4 日）， 特朗普签署了大规模减税和支出法案——"大美丽法案"（One Big Beautiful Bill Act）。具体来看，减税方面，主要是 2017 年个人所得税 减税永久化、延长并提高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a mixed performance with the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index showing a slight decline, while certain stocks are performing well, indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 7, 2025, the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index has decreased by 0.51%, with stocks like Binjiang Group rising by 2.77% and Shengyi Electronics leading the decline [1]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 29.35 million yuan over the past three months, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [1]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.88, which is below 90.16% of the time over the past three years, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [2]. - The index comprises 100 companies selected for their high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow, providing diverse investment options for investors [2]. Group 3: Sector Outlook - The market is believed to be in the late stages of a valuation expansion phase, with high-growth sectors such as technology, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals expected to outperform [1]. - Historical analysis suggests that before the end of a valuation expansion phase, high-growth and policy-driven sectors tend to perform better, while after its conclusion, low-valuation sectors may see stronger performance [1].

Group 1: A-shares and Hong Kong Stocks - The A-share market is expected to show a volatile adjustment pattern in July, with short-term momentum effects possibly leading to continued increases, followed by a potential adjustment phase [4][30] - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to align with the A-share market's overall rhythm, but the A-share's chip structure is superior, and the Hang Seng AH premium index is reversing from a low position, reducing the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks [4][30] - In early July, the growth style is expected to outperform, while dividend stocks may experience relative volatility; however, as momentum effects fade and tariff policy uncertainties increase in mid to late July, growth style may face headwinds, allowing dividend style to shine [4][30] Group 2: US Stocks and Gold - The risk trend model indicates that the risk level of US stocks has reached a high point, predicting a volatile trend in July, with the expiration of the tariff suspension period on July 9 likely impacting the market [4][30] - The gold market is assessed to have a moderate risk level, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation; expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, leading to a gradual strengthening of the market [4][30] - Overall, US stocks and gold are expected to maintain a reverse volatile pattern, awaiting catalysts from geopolitical events, policy changes, and US economic data releases [4][30] Group 3: Government Bonds and US Treasuries - The government bond market is supported by a slow economic recovery, maintaining confidence in policy easing, with liquidity improvement expectations becoming clearer post-quarter [4][30] - The US Treasury market is influenced by external uncertainties that elevate risk aversion, supporting a downward trend in interest rates, although supply pressures and policy fluctuations limit the extent of this decline [4][30] - The overall interest rate trend is expected to show a downward movement, influenced by domestic recovery and flexible policies alongside persistent US inflation and debt supply [4][30] Group 4: Fund Allocation Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, anticipating that the market may exhibit a volatile adjustment trend in the future, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for optimal timing [4][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On July 2, 2025, the convertible bond market showed an incremental decline with compressed valuations. The market style favored large-cap value stocks, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high-priced bonds declined. In the industry, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices rose in the A-share market, while 25 industries in the convertible bond market declined [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.32% compared to the previous day. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.61%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.13%, the SSE 50 Index increased by 0.18%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.01% [2]. - **Market Style**: Large-cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large-cap growth decreased by 0.23%, large-cap value increased by 0.62%, mid-cap growth decreased by 0.26%, mid-cap value increased by 0.59%, small-cap growth decreased by 0.72%, and small-cap value increased by 0.38% [2]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 65.532 billion yuan, a 4.39% increase compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All A was 1.405109 trillion yuan, a 6.11% decrease compared to the previous day. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 33.19 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year treasury bond decreased by 0.37bp to 1.64% [2]. 2. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - **Convertible Bond Price**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 122.40 yuan, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous day. The closing price of equity-oriented convertible bonds was 161.10 yuan, a 3.28% decrease; the closing price of bond-oriented convertible bonds was 113.48 yuan, a 0.05% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 123.06 yuan, a 0.44% decrease. The proportion of high-priced bonds above 130 yuan was 28.85%, a 3.78pct decrease compared to the previous day. The price median was 123.75 yuan, a 0.84% decrease compared to the previous day [3]. - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: The valuation was compressed. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100-yuan par value was 24.49%, a 0.53pct decrease compared to the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 92.65 yuan, a 0.50% increase compared to the previous day. The premium rate of equity-oriented convertible bonds was 5.49%, a 1.26pct decrease; the premium rate of bond-oriented convertible bonds was 93.19%, a 1.57pct decrease; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 18.96%, a 0.49pct decrease [3]. 3. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Industry**: In the A-share market, the top three industries in terms of increase were steel (+3.37%), coal (+1.99%), and building materials (+1.42%); the top three industries in terms of decrease were electronics (-2.01%), communication (-1.96%), and national defense and military industry (-1.94%). - **Convertible Bond Market**: A total of 25 industries in the convertible bond market declined. The top three industries in terms of decrease were communication (-2.34%), bank (-2.17%), and automobile (-1.51%); the top three industries in terms of increase were steel (+0.70%), coal (+0.21%), and national defense and military industry (+0.08%) [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: In terms of closing price, large-cycle decreased by 0.41%, manufacturing decreased by 0.79%, technology decreased by 1.16%, large-consumption decreased by 0.56%, and large-finance decreased by 1.55%. In terms of conversion premium rate, large-cycle decreased by 1.5pct, manufacturing decreased by 1.2pct, technology increased by 0.82pct, large-consumption decreased by 1.1pct, and large-finance decreased by 0.54pct. In terms of conversion value, large-cycle increased by 0.37%, manufacturing decreased by 0.42%, technology decreased by 1.56%, large-consumption decreased by 0.06%, and large-finance decreased by 1.80%. In terms of pure bond premium rate, large-cycle decreased by 0.57pct, manufacturing decreased by 1.0pct, technology decreased by 1.7pct, large-consumption decreased by 0.68pct, and large-finance decreased by 2.3pct [4][5]. 4. Industry Rotation - **Leading Industries**: Steel, coal, and building materials led the rise. The daily increase of steel in the underlying stock was 3.37%, and 0.70% in the convertible bond market; the daily increase of coal in the underlying stock was 1.99%, and 0.21% in the convertible bond market; the daily increase of building materials in the underlying stock was 1.42%, and -0.83% in the convertible bond market [53].

Market Overview - The overall market rebounded last week, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3424.23 points, up 1.91% for the week, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2124.34 points, up 5.69% [1] Sector Performance - In the CITIC industry sectors, comprehensive finance, computer, and comprehensive indices had the highest gains, while transportation, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemical indices experienced the largest declines [1] - The valuation levels and weekly performance of major A-share indices were as follows: ChiNext Index at 32.16 (up 5.69%), CSI 1000 at 38.57 (up 4.62%), and CSI 500 at 28.71 (up 3.98%) [2] Bond Investment Trends - As of the end of May, the bond investment balance of large Chinese banks reached approximately 49.54 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 2.65 trillion yuan this year [3] - Meanwhile, the bond investment balance of small and medium-sized Chinese banks rose to 46.41 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 3.6 trillion yuan [4] Gold Market Dynamics - Last Friday, gold prices saw a significant drop, with spot gold falling over 2% at one point and ultimately closing down 1.63%, dipping below $3300 per ounce [6] - Over the past week, spot gold has decreased by 2.8%, influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East and progress in tariff negotiations, which shifted some funds to the stock market [7] Hong Kong Market Changes - The Hong Kong market will implement a new share trading fee structure starting June 30, 2025, increasing the fee from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, while removing the minimum and maximum fee limits [8] Trade Relations - The U.S. has announced the cessation of all trade negotiations with Canada due to Canada's insistence on a digital services tax targeting U.S. tech companies [9][10] ETF Growth - The first batch of benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs has seen explosive growth, with three ETFs surpassing 20 billion yuan in scale, indicating strong market interest due to lower credit risk and higher tracking efficiency [11]