报 告 正 文 关税下调大超预期，当下加征多少？ 根据联合声明的内容，美国对我国征收的125%对等关税，幅度降至初始的34%。其中10%的基础关税与其 他国家一样征收，剩下24%的关税在90天内暂停实施，等待后续谈判。由于此前美方已经豁免了超2成中国商品的对等关税，则实际关税下降幅 度会更少一些。 当下我国对美总出口关税水平约41%，包括截至去年底的11%实际关税，今年2-3月因芬太尼问题加征的20%，以及最新对等关税的10%。如果 考虑美国额外豁免的部分商品，则整体关税水平降至38%。 直接出口代替转口，抢出口或仍持续。 由于我国与他国，对美出口关税差额将大幅缩小，则转口贸易规模或出现逆转，贸易流将转换为直接对 美出口。同时考虑到特朗普贸易政策多变，其暂停的24%关税后续仍可能继续征收，那么抢出口行为仍将持续，并支撑我国出口。 年内看好出口，国内有何影响？ 年内我们看好出口，一方面，对等关税加征幅度回落，利好直接对美出口；另一方面，俄乌冲突缓和，欧洲经 济重铸也将进一步拉动我国出口，我们在《欧洲振兴，如何带动我国出口？——掘金欧洲系列之二》已外发报告中测算，欧洲振兴或至少拉动 我国出口1个百分点。不过，外部 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, noting marginal improvements in external risks but persistent overall pressure [1] - Short-term signals indicate a phase of easing tariffs between the US and China, with ongoing negotiations that may still have many variables [1][2] - The report highlights the need for incremental capital and policy stimulus for a rebound in the Hong Kong market, with current inflows primarily from the southbound channel [1][2] Group 2 - The report expresses a favorable outlook on AI technology and domestic consumption, suggesting a portion of high-dividend stocks for defensive positioning [2] - AI technology is emphasized due to strong performance in the US tech sector, which boosts global tech narratives, and the launch of a "Tech Enterprise Line" by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - Domestic consumption remains a key theme for the year, supported by government initiatives to expand consumption and enhance its role in economic growth [2] Group 3 - The report lists a selection of recommended stocks, including Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, XPeng Motors, and others, with detailed financial metrics such as market capitalization and earnings per share [3][10][13][18][30][34][39][44][51][57] - Tencent Holdings is noted for its strong competitive advantages across multiple business areas and its accelerated AI commercialization process [10] - Alibaba is recognized for its leading position in AI large models and cloud computing, with significant growth expected in its cloud business driven by AI demand [13] Group 4 - XPeng Motors is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 99 billion, 168 billion, and 249 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [18] - Horizon Robotics is highlighted for its advanced driving solutions and significant market share growth in the high-level autonomous driving sector [24][25] - Anta Sports is expanding its brand portfolio through acquisitions, which is expected to enhance overall competitiveness and performance [30] Group 5 - Miniso is positioned as a leading global IP retail brand, benefiting from industry growth and international expansion, with a strong focus on self-owned brands [34] - The report anticipates steady growth for the beverage company Mixue, driven by its end-to-end supply chain and brand marketing strategies [39] - Yuehai Investment is focusing on its core water supply business, with significant cash flow improvements expected following the divestment of non-core assets [44] Group 6 - New Energy is expected to see a return to valuation levels due to privatization efforts, with a projected valuation increase of 30% [51] - Innovent Biologics is forecasted to maintain revenue growth driven by its expanding product pipeline and effective cost management [57]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the potential impact of tariffs on various industries in China and the U.S., emphasizing the importance of the tariff burden distribution between Chinese and American companies on profitability. It evaluates industry competitiveness and bilateral trade dependence to assess how tariffs may be shared across different sectors [1][20]. Industry Competitiveness - China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products exhibit strong competitiveness, with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) greater than 2 as of 2023. In contrast, primary products and chemicals show lower RCAs below 0.8 [2][3]. - The international market share for China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products is also high, exceeding 30%, while primary and pharmaceutical products have market shares below 10% [3]. - The comprehensive competitiveness index for textiles, telecommunications equipment, electronic data processing, and apparel ranks high at 14, 14, 13, and 13 respectively, while chemicals, agriculture, food, pharmaceuticals, and mineral fuels rank lower at 4-6 [11][13]. Trade Dependence - The U.S. has a high import dependence on miscellaneous products, machinery, and intermediate raw materials from China, with import dependence rates of 26.1%, 16.0%, and 16.0% respectively for 2024, which are significantly higher than the overall dependence [14]. - China's export exposure to the U.S. in sectors like automobiles, chemicals, and non-ferrous metal products is relatively low, providing stronger bargaining power in tariff negotiations. Conversely, labor-intensive sectors have higher exposure, affecting their negotiation leverage [14][20]. Tariff Impact - Due to strong competitiveness and high U.S. import dependence, China's telecommunications equipment and consumer electronics are expected to bear less of the tariff burden, while pharmaceuticals may face a heavier burden due to weaker competitiveness and higher export exposure [20]. - Current tariff rates for industries such as leather, transportation equipment, and food are among the highest, indicating potential impacts on these sectors [20]. Political Factors - Political considerations, particularly related to national security and labor rights, are likely to influence U.S. imports from China, with expectations of reduced imports of telecommunications equipment, smart and connected vehicles, and textiles [27].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4月工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现，其中钢铁、焦化等内需链仍偏强，外需相关度较高的纺服产业链 率开工率呈回落迹象。截至4月第四周，全国247家高炉开工率（期末值，下同）同比增长3.7pct；焦化企业 开工率同比增长8.8pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长1.7pct；PVC开工率同比增长1.8pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同 比回落2.9pct，全钢胎开工率同比回落1.0pct。PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落9.0pct，环比回落5.8pct；涤 纶长丝江浙织机开工率同比回落17.3pct，环比回落8.5pct。纺服产业链开工率回落的情况和PMI数据也较为 匹配，在报告《哪些行业景气度逆势上行：4月PMI简析》中，我们指出：从出口订单来看，纺服、化工、中 游装备制造降幅最大。 第二， 4月建筑资金到位率延续改善，传统基建相关实物工作量仍偏弱，电力侧实物开工相对偏强。据百年 建筑调研，截至4月29日，全国工地资金到位率58.8%，相较3月末环比回升0.9pct，非房建、房建项目资金 到位率环比分别增长0.8、1.7pct。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研究报告称，截至4月30日上午，A股上市公司2024年年报和2025年 一季报业绩基本披露完毕(披露率99.8%)。受政策效果持续显现以及科技创新趋势驱动，整体A股盈利增 速转正。大类行业中信息技术、消费服务增速相对领先，TMT、资源品和中游制造业边际改善。推荐 关注业绩增速相对较高、自由现金流边际改善的领域。 招商证券主要观点如下： 利润端：一季度上市公司业绩边际改善。根据一致可比口径和整体法测算，A股2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1 单季度净利润增速依次为3.7%/-15.7%/3.2%，非金融石油石化2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度净利润增速 为-10.5%/-50.2%/4.5%。 收入端：全部A股单季度收入增速较24Q4放缓，但仍高于24Q3，延续改善。全部A股 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.0%/1.4%/-0.3%，非金融石油石化板块 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.9%/1.2%/0.5%。海外营收增幅扩大，海外营收占收入 的比例持续提升。 25年一季度A股盈利回暖主要受 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the recommended stocks in the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the upcoming months [9][10][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textile and apparel, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with specific stock recommendations for each sector [5][9]. - The recommended stocks are expected to benefit from various growth drivers, including market expansion, product innovation, and favorable policy support [9][10]. Summary by Sector Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (中宠股份) - Focus on pet food industry with strong growth in domestic brands and global capacity expansion. Expected net profit for 2025-2026 is 440 million and 570 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 36 and 28 times [13]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Xiaoshangpin City (小商品城) - Benefits from the high demand for Yiwu small commodities and successful transformation into a foreign trade service provider. Expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.75, 0.95, and 1.14 CNY, maintaining a "Buy" rating [14]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: Keri International (科锐国际) - Positive outlook due to cyclical recovery and AI integration in operations. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 287 million, 399 million, and 523 million CNY, with PE ratios of 23, 17, and 13 times [15]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Xiaomi Group (小米集团-W) - Anticipated growth driven by stable orders and new model launches. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 35.404 billion, 51.653 billion, and 65.531 billion CNY [16]. Textile and Apparel - Recommended Stock: Hailan Home (海澜之家) - Expected to benefit from e-commerce expansion and international growth. Projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 2.04 billion, 2.57 billion, and 3.43 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 19, 15, and 11 times [17][18]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Dengkang Oral Care (登康口腔) - Growth driven by e-commerce and product innovation. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 200 million, 260 million, and 330 million CNY, with PE ratios of 38, 30, and 23 times [19]. Food - Recommended Stock: Wufangzhai (五芳斋) - Leading market position in the rice dumpling sector with expansion into new channels. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 181 million, 207 million, and 224 million CNY, with PE ratios of 22, 19, and 18 times [19]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Gree Electric Appliances (格力电器) - Strong brand and cost advantages in the air conditioning market. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 35.519 billion, 38.452 billion, and 42.086 billion CNY, with low PE ratios of 7.34, 6.78, and 6.20 times [20]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Kangchen Pharmaceutical (康辰药业) - Focus on innovative drug development with promising products in the pipeline. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 135 million, 216 million, and 286 million CNY [21][22].

核 心 观 点 行业比较：电子和机械设备对美敞口更大。 我国对美国电子商品出口最多，而 交运设备关税税率最高 ，加 征后高达 168% 。从中观行业来看，具体到我国对美出口一级行业，电子、轻工、机械与纺织出口依赖度及 份额均较高。从美国进口来看，电子与轻工对我国进口依赖度与进口份额均较高。综合来看， 电子和机械设 备对美敞口更大 。 上游原材料、制造业受冲击严重，后续去产能对冲。 ① 电 子行业的营收对美敞口较大， 若对美出口全部 消失，对行业总营收的影响约为 3.2% 左右，成本传导为主要机制，后续国内产业政策或将推动国产替代，政 策补贴提振消费电子。 ②机械设备行业的营收对美敞口也较大， 如果对美出口全部消失，对行业总营收的影 响为 4.2% 左右，或将加速行业重组。当前国内设备更新政策已经前置推出，同时城市更新等稳增长政策也有 利于扩大机械设备总需求。往后看，产业升级或将加速。 ③交运设备行业的营收对美敞口较小， 即便对美出 口全部消失，对行业总营收的影响也仅为 1.9% 左右，不过行业利润空间或将被挤压。当前国内促进汽车消费 的相关政策也已经前置落地，后续促内需仍有空间，扩外需方面，"一带一路"共建国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical evolution of tariffs as a policy tool, highlighting the lessons learned from past tariff implementations and their impacts on the economy, particularly in the context of the current trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Group 1: Historical Context - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 significantly raised import tax rates, increasing the average tariff level in the U.S. from 13.5% in 1929 to 19.8% in 1933, leading to a 45% decline in nominal GDP and a 67% drop in total exports over four years, with unemployment reaching nearly 25% [1]. - Compared to the 1930s, the current global trade is characterized by international value chains, making the imposition of trade barriers more challenging and likely to disrupt supply chains [4]. Group 2: Current Trade Policies - Starting in 2018, the U.S. initiated multiple rounds of tariffs against China, escalating from $50 billion to $200 billion with a tax rate of 25%, resulting in a weakening of U.S.-China export ties and a temporary "export rush" effect in certain industries [6]. - The 2025 tariff policy under the Trump administration is expected to be more intense, with an average effective tariff rate projected to reach 22.4%, surpassing the levels seen during the Great Depression, and covering a broader range of products from consumer goods to high-tech items [10]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The macroeconomic impact of tariffs is typically gradual, with initial market reactions being severe, leading to a "rush to export" effect, as seen in 2018 when China's exports to the U.S. surged [12]. - In the medium term, as tariffs take effect, profit margins for companies reliant on imported raw materials will be squeezed, leading to reduced capital expenditure and declining consumer confidence [15]. - Long-term effects may include a restructuring of global supply chains as companies seek to mitigate costs and risks, potentially leading to a decrease in U.S.-China trade and a shift towards regionalization [18]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies in high-risk export industries, such as home appliances, automotive, and textiles, should be avoided due to their vulnerability to profit margin compression from tariffs [19]. - Focus should be on brand-name consumer goods with strong pricing power, as these companies can often pass on costs to consumers, mitigating the impact of tariffs [22]. - Industries with localized production capabilities, such as HVAC systems and large appliances, are less sensitive to tariff fluctuations and should be prioritized for investment [23]. - Sectors driven by domestic consumption, like food and beverage, exhibit relative stability and should be considered for medium to long-term investment [24]. - Technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, particularly those with domestic substitution potential, are key areas for investment focus [25]. - Resilient consumer sectors, including low-cost, high-frequency items and elder care products, are expected to perform well despite economic uncertainties [26].

图片来源于：广发证券 点击蓝字，关注我们 关税作为政策工具的历史演变 1、1930年代：斯穆特-霍利法案与全球⼤萧条的教训 1930年出台的《斯穆特-霍利关税法》在全球经济已显疲态之际，将超过两万种商品的进口税率显著上调，使美国平均关税水平从1929年的13.5%提升至 1933年的19.8%。 历史数据显示，在该法案实施后， 美国名义GDP在四年间下滑了45%，出口总额骤降67%，失业率攀升至近25% 。这一历史时期的经验深刻表明，在 全球经济高度关联的背景下，大幅度、非协商性的关税措施极易触发链式反应，最终对本国经济造成深远的负面影响。 然而，相对1930年代，当前世界贸易以国际价值链为特征，强行推进贸易壁垒会使得供应链紊乱甚至断裂， 真实落地的难度更大 ； 同时，对美国本身经济来说，当前 贸易战的冲击会远小于1930年代 ，原因在于：一是当前经济过热程度不如1920年代末期，二是美联储 有更灵活的货币政策空间，以应付可能产生的衰退或通缩。但鉴于美国当前进出口占GDP比重显著高于1930年代， 波及的人群和国家或 更广 。 2、2018年：特朗普"关税优先"政策的阶段性演绎 2018年起，美国对华发起多轮 ...

宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...