证券日报网讯 10月20日晚间，安阳钢铁发布公告称，近日，公司收到交易商协会出具的《接受注册通 知书》（中市协注〔2025〕MTN976号、〔2025〕CP101号），交易商协会决定接受公司中期票据、短 期融资券注册。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed economic outlook, with rising gold prices and declining consumer and production metrics, indicating potential challenges in various sectors of the economy [2][31]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to approximately 3%, down 3.59 points from the previous week, primarily due to a holiday effect impacting real estate transactions and vehicle sales [2][10]. - Subway passenger transport growth turned negative, with a 3% year-on-year decline in 27 cities compared to a 3.8% increase in September [3][14]. - The sales of commercial residential properties have seen a significant decline, with a 27% year-on-year drop in transaction area as of October 18, compared to a 1.2% decline in September [4][16]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have turned negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 7% as of October 12, contrasting with a 6% increase in September [16]. - The growth rate of express delivery volume has slowed to 1.7% year-on-year in the first two weeks of October, down from 12% in the previous month [4][16]. - Prices of pork and eggs have dropped significantly, with pork prices down 3.9% and egg prices down 4.4% [5][31]. Group 3: Production and Infrastructure - Infrastructure activity has noticeably declined, with the operating rate of asphalt plants at 35.8%, down 4.3% from pre-holiday levels [4][19]. - The apparent consumption of rebar has decreased by 18% year-on-year as of October 17, indicating weaker demand in construction [19][24]. - Industrial production metrics show a decline in coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port, with a year-on-year increase of only 6% as of October 17, down from 19% in September [19][24]. Group 4: Trade and Exports - Port container throughput has decreased by 6.1% week-on-week as of October 12, with cumulative year-on-year growth dropping to 5.3% [26][27]. - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. has significantly declined, with a year-on-year drop of 34.8% in mid-October [27]. - Export demand remains stable, with shipping rates for European routes showing a rebound, while North American routes also see price increases [26][27]. Group 5: Price Trends - Gold prices have surged to $4,304 per ounce, marking a 6.2% increase, while oil prices have continued to decline [31][36]. - The average listing price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities has decreased by 0.3% as of October 6, with a cumulative decline of 3.1% this year [38][40]. - The price index for industrial silicon futures has decreased by 1%, while polysilicon futures have increased by 6.3% [31][40]. Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are reported at 1.4434%, 1.5899%, and 1.8246%, with slight fluctuations compared to the previous week [54][53]. - The government plans to issue new local government debt limits for 2026, with a focus on supporting major strategic projects [41].

钢铁制造商克利夫兰克里夫公司(CLF.US)于10月20日盘前发布第三季度财报，数据显示，公司Q3营收 47亿美元，同比增长3.5%，但较市场预期低2亿美元，非公认会计准则每股收益(Non-GAAP EPS) 为-0.45美元，与市场预期持平。经调整的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为1.43亿美元，高于此前华尔 街预期的1.28亿美元。 同时，公司更新了2025财年全年业绩指引，具体调整上，资本支出从此前预期的6亿美元下调至约5.25 亿美元;销售、一般及管理费用(SG&A)从5.75亿美元下调至约5.5亿美元; 钢铁单位成本维持此前指引，较2024年每净吨降低约50美元(已根据汽车发货量提升情况调整); 折旧、损耗及摊销(DDA)维持约12亿美元;养老金与其他退休后福利(OPEB)现金支出及缴款维持约1.5亿 美元。 对比2024年第三季度(去年同期)数据，本季度基准钢价平均约为800美元/吨，而去年同期平均约为700美 元/吨。 这份业绩报告表现稳健，推动克利夫兰克里夫股价在盘前交易中上涨8%;同期标普500指数期货和道琼 斯工业平均指数期货分别上涨0.53%和0.52%。截至周一，克利夫斯股价今年已 ...

节后需求恢复增长，库存重回下降趋势 [Table_Industry] 钢铁 ——钢铁行业周度更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 刘彦奇(分析师) | 021-23219391 | liuyanqi@gtht.com | S0880525040007 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | 本报告导读： 需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业亏损时间已经较长，供 给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政 策落地，行业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

来源：环球市场播报 美国钢铁制造商克利夫兰克利夫斯公司（Cleveland-Cliffs）公布第三季度营收增长，受特朗普政府征收 钢铁关税带动，美国本土钢材需求显著上升。 公司最新报告称，第三季度销售额为47.3亿美元，高于去年同期的45.7亿美元，略低于分析师预期的49 亿美元。 首席执行官洛伦索·冈萨尔维斯表示，得益于特朗普总统今年实施的50%钢铁关税，美国汽车行业对国 产钢材需求回升，公司已与所有主要汽车制造商签订新的长期供货协议。 此外，克利夫兰克利夫斯还与一家全球钢铁生产商签署了谅解备忘录，合作利用其美国产能以受益于关 税政策。 公司本季度录得净亏损2.51亿美元（即每股亏损0.51美元），与去年同期的2.44亿美元亏损相近；调整 后每股收益为0.45美元，符合市场预期。 CEO冈萨尔维斯同时透露，公司计划扩大在稀土金属领域的布局，目前正在密歇根州和明尼苏达州勘探 潜在矿区，这些地区显示出关键稀土矿物迹象。"这将使克利夫兰克利夫斯在关键原材料独立战略上与 国家目标保持一致，就像我们在钢铁领域取得的成果一样，"他说。 ...

证券日报网讯宝钢股份（600019）10月20日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司在外汇风险管理方 面已建立成熟机制，通过金融衍生品工具对冲汇率波动风险，目前无重大外汇风险敞口。公司将持续关 注国际结算货币多元化趋势，结合政策导向和商业可行性优化结算策略。 ...

证券日报网讯宝钢股份（600019）10月20日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前宝钢AI算力中心 已部署并融合多个领先级大模型技术体系，集成了AI联网聚合搜索、RAG知识库构建、智能体低代码 开发等功能，为各层次用户提供了一站式能力底座，为工作提质、流程提效、决策优化打下了坚实的基 础，为公司加快推进"AI+业务"的创新应用注入了全新动能。上半年AI应用场景建设启动390个，累计 上线投运场景119个。发布智能体标准，形成市场情报洞察、智能报价、系统功能推荐、智能员工助 理、制度助手等智能体标杆案例，完成52个智能体开发及投运。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weak internal demand but high exports, with the market stabilizing but lacking upward momentum [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, supported by high iron - water levels and safety production expectations [4][5] - The ferrosilicon manganese market has high demand and relatively stable supply, with attention to external trade frictions [6] - The ferrosilicon market has overall good demand and continuous inventory reduction, also affected by external trade frictions [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread: Surface demand rebounded month - on - month but was still weak year - on - year, production declined, and inventory decreased [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Demand increased, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down [2] - Overall: Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained high, downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain persisted [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year, and domestic arrivals decreased from a high level but were still strong [3] - Demand: Iron - water production decreased slightly from a high level, and the pressure for future production cuts increased [3] - Market: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about trade frictions and expectations of policy benefits [3] Coke - Supply: Coking production decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline slightly [4] - Demand: Downstream procurement was on a small - scale and on - demand basis, mainly consuming inventory [4] - Market: Prices were likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, with support at previous lows and expected cost increases [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Coal mine production increased slightly, and total inventory increased slightly month - on - month [5] - Demand: High iron - water levels provided support for raw materials [5] - Market: Prices were likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, with expectations of safety production inspections [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Supply: Weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [6] - Demand: Iron - water production remained high, and expected demand was still good [6] - Market: Attention was paid to the bidding price of a large steel mill in the north, and the impact of external trade frictions [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply remained at a high level, and inventory continued to be depleted [7] - Demand: Iron - water production remained high, export demand was about 30,000 tons, and secondary demand increased slightly [7] - Market: Attention was paid to steel tender news and the impact of external trade frictions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In the short term, the supply of coking coal and coke increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon remains loose, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the closing prices of most futures and spot varieties in the black industry chain changed. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased from 3103 to 3037 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13%; the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3285 to 3204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. However, the J2601 contract of coke increased from 1666.5 to 1676 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased. The steel products market oscillated and declined last week, and the downstream weakness improved limitedly. The Sino - US trade friction affected market sentiment, and important domestic meetings and Sino - US economic and trade consultations are worth noting [9]. - **Viewpoint**: Low - level operation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The macro - level meeting is expected to focus on new - quality productivity and consumption. The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly, the arrival volume will return to the median level, the domestic demand decreased but remained high, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke first declined and then rose last week, affected by Sino - US trade policies and anti - involution expectations. The spot market was stable and slightly strong, and some coke enterprises planned a second price increase. The coal mine output increased, the imported coal volume increased monthly, the coke enterprise profit contracted, and the steel mill profit was in deficit [11]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the supply increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas, the US government shutdown affected economic data and Fed policy decisions. Domestically, the demand improvement expectation was weak. The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon was relatively loose, the demand decreased, the inventory increased, and the cost support was stable [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 201.16 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24 tons; the apparent demand was 219.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 73.74 tons. The total inventory was 641.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.59 tons [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 321.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45 tons; the apparent demand was 315.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.58 tons. The total inventory was 419.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.29 tons [24][29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import ore port inventory (45 ports) last week was 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons [41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises last week was 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons [48]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment last week was 3207.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 891.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.84 tons [74]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2599.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87.92 tons [82]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port last week was 33.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan [106]. - **Output**: The silicon - manganese output of 187 independent enterprises last week was 208810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4585 tons [110]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon - manganese of five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 960 tons [114]. - **Inventory**: The silicon - manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises on October 17 was 262500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20000 tons [117].

摘要 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询 业务 资 格 ：鄂 证 监期 货 字 [2014]1 号 研究咨询团队 研究员 潘钰烛 2025-10-20 研究咨询部 期货研究报告 从业编号： F0290936 投资咨询编号： Z0011442 汪浩铮 从业编号： F3030975 投资咨询编号： Z0014278 曹雪梅 从业编号： F3051631 投资咨询编号： Z0015756 近期宏观热点对商品市场的影响 2025 年十一国庆假期至今，全球宏观市场呈现"政策宽松预期 升温、地缘风险交织、贸易冲突急剧升级"的复杂特征。美国经济 数据疲软强化美联储降息预期，而中美贸易摩擦的突然升级为全球 需求前景蒙上阴影。OPEC+维持减产为油价提供支撑，但供需格局 的长期矛盾依然存在。国内方面，政策端持续释放稳增长信号，但 实体经济数据仍显疲弱，内需复苏呈现结构性特征。上述因素共同 作用下，期货市场各板块驱动逻辑出现显著分化。 当前期货市场正处于宏观驱动与产业现实激烈碰撞的时期。贵 金属作为避险与宽松受益的首选，配置价值突出。有色方面重点关 注铜在矿端供应紧张与长期需求前景支撑下的回调后多头布局机 会。黑色系整体承 ...