Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in the fourth week of March, a total net outflow of funds into the market was 35.5 billion, compared to a net outflow of 34.6 billion in the previous week [1][7] - Short-term sentiment indicators are at a mid-high level since 2005, while long-term sentiment indicators are at a mid-low level since 2005 [1][12] - From an industry perspective, the highest transaction volume share in the past week was in the power equipment (99%), communication (98%), and semiconductor (96%) sectors, while the lowest was in real estate (0%), commercial trade (1%), and liquor (1%) [2][14] Group 2 - The recent week saw a decrease in financing balance by 24 billion, an increase in public fund issuance by 21 billion, a net redemption of ETFs amounting to 5.7 billion, and an estimated net outflow of northbound funds of 10.5 billion [1][7] - The recent week’s annualized turnover rate was 488%, placing it in the 82nd percentile historically, while the financing transaction ratio was 8.95%, placing it in the 56th percentile historically [12][15] - The recent week’s A-share risk premium was 2.63%, which is in the 42nd percentile historically, and the dividend yield of the 300 index (excluding finance) compared to the ten-year government bond yield was 1.24, in the 5th percentile historically [2][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical risks, and commodity price volatility on asset allocation strategies for businesses in 2026, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt and utilize derivative tools to enhance competitiveness in uncertain environments [6][8][9]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic forum will feature discussions on the 2026 economic outlook and investment strategies for major asset classes, highlighting the importance of understanding global economic trends [14][16][17]. Industry Perspective - The article outlines three closed-door sessions focusing on different sectors: non-ferrous metals, black metals, and new energy, each addressing specific industry challenges and potential solutions [7][9][10]. - In the non-ferrous metals session, the core issue revolves around the transformation of demand and the potential for a bull market in 2026, with a focus on how companies can leverage derivative tools [8][18]. - The black metals session will explore the impact of geopolitical risks and the dual carbon goals on supply-demand dynamics, aiming to identify opportunities and risks in the steel market [9][19]. - The new energy session will discuss the supply-demand shifts in lithium and silicon, emphasizing the volatility in prices and the strategic use of derivatives to maintain competitive advantages [10][22]. Practical Applications - The article emphasizes the need for companies to adopt practical solutions to navigate the increasing uncertainty in global markets, particularly through the use of futures and options [6][8][9]. - Each industry session will provide actionable insights and strategies for businesses to enhance their market positioning amidst changing economic conditions [7][9][10].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.58%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Overseas disturbances are continuous, and strong raw materials support steel prices, but the improvement in demand is questionable, and the fundamentals have no substantial change. The upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend is expected to continue the oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.33%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil has recovered well, the fundamentals have improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. The price of hot - rolled coil has returned to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, demand concerns remain, and the upward driving force weakens under the high - inventory situation. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.06%. During the roll - over period, both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, positive factors have reappeared, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the fundamentals of iron ore have no substantial change. High - valued ore prices are still prone to pressure. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to steel prices and the shipment of Australian ore [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries such as lithium batteries and new - energy vehicles, and will comprehensively rectify such competition using various anti - unfair competition measures [7]. - From January to February, the transportation industry completed a fixed - asset investment of 355.8 billion yuan. The freight volume and port cargo throughput increased rapidly, and the cross - regional personnel flow remained stable. The highway freight volume was 61.5 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%, and the waterway freight volume was 13.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0% [8]. - Mexico made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on hot - rolled steel from China and Vietnam, setting different temporary anti - dumping duties for different Chinese producers/exporting companies [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, along with the prices of PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and iron ore price index [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar main contract closed at 3,139 with a 0.58% increase, the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,308 with a 0.33% increase, and the iron ore main contract closed at 813.0 with a 0.06% increase [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [14][15][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate powder [22][23][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and the proportion of profitable steel mills of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [30][32][34]. 5. Future Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, inventory is continuously decreasing, and production is weakly stable. The weekly output decreased by 54,600 tons, and the weekly apparent demand increased by 172,800 tons. The improvement in demand is questionable, and the subsequent trend is expected to continue to oscillate [39]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are on the rise. The weekly output increased by 54,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand increased by 31,200 tons. The demand has recovered well, but concerns remain, and the upward driving force is weakening. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the terminal consumption of ore is increasing. The arrival of ore at domestic ports is increasing, while overseas shipments have dropped. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a high level [40].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential has deepened[2] - The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries have continued to rise, while inflation expectations have declined[2] - Offshore dollar liquidity is marginally tightening, and the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced[2] Market Activity and Volatility - Market trading activity continues to decline, with most indices showing reduced volatility[3] - Sectors such as utilities, light industry, petrochemicals, construction, electric new energy, and chemicals have trading activity above the 90th percentile[3] - The volatility of non-ferrous metals, steel, petrochemicals, and military industries is above the 90th historical percentile[3] Institutional Research and Analyst Predictions - Research activity is high in banking, electronics, computing, electric new energy, and pharmaceuticals, with rising interest in home appliances, non-ferrous metals, consumer services, food and beverage, and retail[4] - Analysts have simultaneously revised down the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027[5] - The net profit forecasts for sectors like petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, electronics, steel, military, real estate, and light industry have been revised upwards for 2026/2027[5] Northbound Trading and Margin Financing - Northbound trading activity continues to decline, with net selling of A-shares, although the pace has slowed[6] - The net buying focus has shifted to sectors like computing, military, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling has occurred in electric new energy, power utilities, and electronics[6] - Margin financing activity has dropped to the lowest level since July 2025, with a net sell-off of 24.006 billion yuan last week[7] Fund Positioning and ETF Trends - Active equity funds have reduced positions in non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and telecommunications, while correlations with small-cap growth and large/mid-cap value have increased[9] - ETFs have continued to experience net redemptions, particularly in institutional ETFs, while net subscriptions were seen in indices like CSI 300 and STAR 50[9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained as of March 30, 2026 [9]. Core Insights - Since early March, the steel index has dropped by 14.9%, while rebar prices have increased by 30 CNY/ton. The profitability of sample steel companies has risen from 38.10% to 43.29%, an increase of 5.19 percentage points. This indicates that the recent decline in the steel sector is primarily due to valuation drops rather than significant changes in fundamentals, which have slightly improved [2][7]. - The market's valuation drop for the steel sector is attributed to the "US-Iran conflict" that began in early March, which has limited oil supply from the Middle East, potentially leading to price increases and inflation expectations that suppress global commodity demand. However, the impact on the steel sector is considered limited due to its domestic demand orientation and the sector being at a low valuation level [7]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - The demand for steel continues to recover, with the apparent consumption of steel products showing a slight increase compared to last year. The recovery is attributed to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year, affecting the availability of funds and labor for construction sites. The apparent consumption of steel products has been slightly lower than last year in the Gregorian calendar but higher in the lunar calendar [5]. - The production of steel has slightly decreased, with a daily average iron output rising to 2.31 million tons, reflecting a 2.94 thousand tons/day increase. The profitability of sample steel mills remains stable at 43.29%, with a slight increase of 0.87% [6]. Inventory and Pricing - Steel inventories have continued to decrease, with total inventory down by 2.61% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanghai rebar has fallen to 3,200 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled steel has risen to 3,280 CNY/ton [6]. - The recent geopolitical events, including airstrikes on Iranian steel plants, may lead to a tightening of steel supply in the Middle East, potentially increasing import demand [5]. Market Positioning - The steel sector is characterized as a low-position sector compared to other cyclical commodities, with prices, profitability, and equity positions at long-term lows. The report suggests that the recent panic-driven sell-off may lead to a rebound, as lower valuations imply better cost-effectiveness for the sector [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery progress in demand, supply, and cost factors within the steel industry [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights the emergence of HALO assets, defined as "Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence," which have gained investor attention due to the decline in appeal of "light asset, high growth" tech companies amid the AI revolution [4][11] - Three main reasons for the rise of HALO assets are identified: the slowdown in capital expenditure growth among US tech giants, the anxiety in "light asset, high growth" sectors due to AI's disruptive potential, and the increasing demand for energy driven by AI development [4][5] - The report suggests that HALO assets are likely to continue being favored by investors, drawing parallels to the internet revolution of the late 1990s, indicating a structural shift rather than a temporary trend [38][40] Group 2 - The macro geopolitical context, particularly the escalating US-Israel-Iran tensions, has contributed to rising oil prices, indirectly boosting the attractiveness of HALO assets [5][46] - The report outlines three scenarios regarding the geopolitical situation, with an 80% probability that HALO assets will benefit from either optimistic or neutral outcomes [53][62] - The analysis indicates that the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, while disruptive, are unlikely to derail the overall positive trend for HALO assets [62] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the unique advantages of Chinese HALO assets compared to their US counterparts, including strong government support, high asset quality, and newer equipment [6][63] - A quantitative method is proposed for constructing a HALO asset portfolio in China, which has shown significant excess returns in backtesting [6][8] - The report recommends investors to overweight HALO assets in their A-share portfolios, highlighting the potential for substantial upside given the current market dynamics [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the steel market showed a volatile and weak pattern. Although the geopolitical conflict pushed up the oil price, which had a cost - side impact on black commodities, the industrial - level pressure was more direct. Construction steel had a situation of "decreasing supply and stable demand", with a slight contraction in production, a gentle recovery in demand, and a slowdown in inventory reduction speed. There were increasing doubts about the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season [2]. - In the short term, the rebar market lacks a unilateral driver to break through the volatile range. The strong cost and weak demand create a balance between long and short positions, and the price is likely to maintain a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. If the demand remains weak and the supply continues to grow, the accumulated inventory pressure in the market may drive the price center to move down, and the market still faces certain pressure risks. Attention should be paid to the intensity and sustainability of demand release in the next one or two weeks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The steel market this week was volatile and weak. Geopolitical conflict pushed up oil prices, but industrial - level pressure was more direct. Construction steel had "decreasing supply and stable demand", with production slightly contracting, demand recovering gently, and inventory reduction slowing down. Doubts about the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season increased [2]. - In the short - term, the rebar market lacks a unilateral driver to break the volatile range. Strong cost and weak demand create a balance. The price is likely to have a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. If demand is weak and supply grows, inventory pressure may drive the price down. Monitor demand release in the next one or two weeks [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Production and Inventory Data**: The daily average hot metal output of steel mills was 231.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 million tons or 1.29%. Rebar mill inventory was 219.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.04 million tons or - 7.21%. Rebar social inventory was 642.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.46 million tons or - 1.60%. Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 83.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 million tons or - 1.31%. Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 369.42 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 million tons or - 1.84% [4]. - **Market Data Charts**: The report includes multiple charts related to the futures market (such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, etc.), the spot market (such as rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis), and fundamental data (such as the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, and seasonal analysis of inventory) [6][13][17]

Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited （在中华人民共和国注册成立的股份有限公司） 2025 年年度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券代码：601005 股票简称：重庆钢铁 公告编号：2026-008 重庆钢铁股份有限公司 重庆钢铁股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 30 日 重庆钢铁股份有限公司根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监 管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》相关规定，现将 2025 年年度经营 数据公告如下： 特此公告。 1 单位：万吨 主要产品 生产量 销售量 平均售价 （元/吨，不含税） 中厚板 228.56 226.55 3,418 热卷 478.22 481.38 3,020 钢坯 4.03 4.06 2,921 合计 710.81 711.99 3,146 ...

股票代码：600399 股票简称：抚顺特钢 编号：临 2026-015 抚顺特殊钢股份有限公司 2025 年度经营数据公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没 有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 二〇二六年三月三十一日 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号—行业信息 披露（第七号钢铁）》第二十二条的相关规定，抚顺特殊钢股份有限 公司现将 2025 年度主要经营数据公告如下： | 产品名称 | 经营指标 | 2025 年 | 2024 年 | 增减情况（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合金结构钢 | 产量（万吨） | 20.55 | 19.75 | 4.03 | | | 销量（万吨） | 20.69 | 20.54 | 0.72 | | | 平均售价（元/吨，不含税） | 10,636.79 | 12,951.07 | -17.87 | | 工具钢 | 产量（万吨） | 8.74 | 8.89 | -1.64 | | | 销量（万吨） | 8.85 | 9.06 | -2.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have declined from their highs. After the holiday, the supply - demand situation in the steel industry has seasonally recovered. Supply in the first quarter decreased year - on - year, and production is expected to rise to a high by the end of April. Demand is rising but the peak has not been reached. Domestic demand is expected to decline year - on - year, and exports will remain flat. Although demand has decreased, production has also been cut, and the inventory drawdown rate after the holiday is acceptable. The key is to focus on the height of the recovery in apparent demand. If the hot metal output rises above 2.4 million tons, there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the off - season. Recently, supply and demand are basically balanced, and the price of steel is expected to fluctuate around 3150 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Geopolitical games, the undetermined BHP - CMMC negotiation, and hot metal复产 are the key trading factors for iron ore. Supply has increased slightly, but Australian shipments may decline in the short term due to a typhoon. Demand has increased slightly, but it is slightly lower than expected. Steel mill profitability has improved. Terminal demand recovery is slow, and domestic demand is weak. Steel exports are uncertain. Inventories at steel mills and ports have decreased slightly. In the short term, the main iron ore contract is expected to oscillate between 780 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures rose and then fell last week. Spot prices are expected to increase on April 1st. Supply has increased after the Two Sessions, and demand has recovered with the increase in hot metal output. Overall inventory is slightly above the middle level, and supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. It is recommended to go long on coke 2605 contracts at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures rose last week. Spot prices are rising. Supply has increased as mines resume production, and demand has recovered. Inventories in downstream sectors are increasing. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2605 contracts at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1350, and the arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, production has decreased slightly, and the start - up rate has declined. Factory profits are recovering but vary. Steel demand is rising slightly, and non - steel demand is improving. Exports are weak. Cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 5800 - 6200. For silicomanganese, supply has continued to decline, and there is an expected joint production cut in April. Demand is rising slightly. Cost is pushing up the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a reference range of 5700 - 6800 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have shown various changes, with some prices remaining stable, some decreasing slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and some production costs have decreased. Profits in different regions and varieties have also changed, with some increasing and some still in the red [1]. Supply - Daily hot metal output has increased by 7.0 to 228.2 tons, a 3.1% increase. Total output of five major steel products has decreased slightly by 0.2 to 839.6 tons, a 0.0% change. Rebar production has decreased by 5.5 to 197.9 tons, a 2.7% decrease, while hot - rolled coil production has increased by 5.4 to 305.6 tons, a 1.8% increase [1]. Inventory - Total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 48.4 to 1897.8 tons, a 2.5% decrease. Rebar inventory has decreased by 27.5 to 861.9 tons, a 3.1% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 8.0 to 453.3 tons, a 1.7% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume has increased by 0.5 to 9.4 tons, a 5.9% increase. Apparent demand for five major steel products has increased by 19.5 to 888.0 tons, a 2.2% increase. Apparent demand for rebar has increased by 17.3 to 225.4 tons, an 8.3% increase, and for hot - rolled coil, it has increased by 3.1 to 313.6 tons, a 1.0% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Futures - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have decreased, and basis and spreads have also changed [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port have decreased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 56.6 to 2271.6 tons, a 2.6% increase. Global shipments have increased by 95.5 to 3144.3 tons, a 3.1% increase. Monthly national imports have decreased by 2200.9 to 9763.8 tons, an 18.4% decrease [4]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills has increased by 2.9 to 231.1 tons, a 1.3% increase. The 45 - port average daily dispatch volume has decreased by 7.8 to 313.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease. Monthly national pig iron and crude steel production have both decreased to 0 [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has decreased by 98.1 to 17000.31 tons, a 0.6% decrease. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased by 55.5 to 8978.6 tons, a 0.6% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices have shown various changes, with some prices remaining stable and some decreasing slightly. Coking coal prices in some regions have decreased [6]. Supply - Coke production has increased slightly, and coking coal production has decreased slightly [6]. Demand - Hot metal output has increased by 2.9 to 231.1 tons, a 1.3% increase, driving the demand for coke [6]. Inventory - Coke inventory has increased slightly, with different changes in different sectors. Coking coal inventory in downstream sectors has increased [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices have increased, while some spot prices have decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs in some regions have changed, and production profits have also shown different trends [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production and start - up rate have decreased, and silicomanganese supply has continued to decline [7]. Demand - Steel demand is rising slightly, and non - steel demand for ferrosilicon is improving [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese inventories have decreased slightly [7].