金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场情绪监控周报（20260224-20260227） 深度学习因子 2 月超额 1.50%，本周热度变化最大 行业为钢铁、环保 深度学习因子跟踪 基于 DecompGRU 模型得分 TOP200 构建周度多头选股组合，组合样本外累计 绝对收益 84.37%，相对全指等权超额 43.11%；2 月组合绝对收益为 5.41%， 超额为 1.50%。 将个股得分聚合为 ETF 轮动组合，组合样本外累计绝对收益 53.40%，相对万 得主题 ETF 指数超额为 17.47%；2 月组合绝对收益为 9.51%，超额为 8.18%。 本周情绪因子跟踪 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的中证 1000，相比上周提高 3.63%， 最小的为中证 2000，相比上周降低 2.85%；宽基热度动量组合 26 年累计收益 为 5.6%。 本周申万行业热度变化方面，一级行业中热度变化率正向变化前 5 的一级行 业分别为钢铁、环保、公用事业、计算机、建筑材料，负向变化前 5 的一级行 业分别为食品饮料、商贸零售、纺织服饰、美容护理、社会服务；申万二级行 业中，热度正向变化率最大的 5 个行业是农 ...

- The HALO trading strategy focuses on going long on "AI-resistant and AI-dependent" heavy assets while shorting "AI-disruptible" light assets[2][11] - The strategy suggests focusing on sectors like power grid equipment, energy, mining, industrial equipment, defense, and signal towers[2][11] - Recent market performance indicates initial validation of the HALO strategy, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, communication, building materials, machinery, and chemicals performing well over the past quarter[2][11] - The macro strategy chart toolbox helps track the HALO trading status through metrics like crowding and industry differentiation[3][11] - Crowding: Current transaction volume share of cyclical sectors is below the median of the past 10 years, while advanced manufacturing and TMT sectors are around the 85%-90% percentile[3][11] - Industry differentiation: This indicator has been oscillating upwards since the beginning of the year and has now returned to the level of August 2025[3][11] - Historical excess returns: Cyclical sectors are in the early stages of an upward trend after a long-term bottoming, TMT sectors are at historical highs, advanced manufacturing sectors are above the median, and consumption and financial real estate sectors are still at the bottom of the past 20 years[12] - Based on the HALO trading logic and current status, the recommended mid-term allocation priority is "cyclical > advanced manufacturing > TMT"[13]

钢铁板块估值延续修复 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [钢铁板块估值延续修复 Table_Title] 本期内容提要： ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块上涨 11.80%，表现优于大盘；其中， 特钢板块上涨 12.77%，长材板块上涨 9.30%，板材板块上涨 11.5 3%；铁矿石板块上涨 12.32%，钢铁耗材板块上涨 14.57 ...

钢铁周报 20260301 两会临近，供给约束预期增强 glmszqdatemark | 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | | | （元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 000932.SZ | 华菱钢铁 | 6.71 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 推荐 | | 600019.SH | 宝钢股份 | 7.20 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600282.SH | 南钢股份 | 5.91 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 推荐 | | 301160.SZ | 翔楼新材 | 68.56 | 2.01 | 2.70 | 3.66 | 34 | ...

【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 钢铁板块估值延续修复 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [钢铁板块估值延续修复 Table_Title] 本期内容提要： ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块上涨 11.80%，表现优于大盘；其中， 特钢板块上涨 12.77%，长材板块上涨 9.30%，板材板块 ...

[Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | 010-59136616 | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郑恺 | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 李如娟 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524030002 | | 020-66336563 | | lirujuan@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，李如娟并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 假期非美市场延续牛市氛 | 2026-02-23 | | --- | --- | | 围:——春节大事 5 分钟全知 | | | 道 | | | 春节前后，港股如何反 | 2026-02-08 | | 应 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] A 股周论：两会前后买什么？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 两会前后 A 股市场通常呈现出一定的日历效应，整体呈现上涨趋势。市场风格上，两会前市场 风格通常呈现出"小盘>大盘"的特征，而消费风格在两会后可能展现出较强的股价弹性。在两 会前后的市场节点，建议关注两条交易线索：（1）历史经验表明，历次"五年规划"首年的两 会窗口期，市场表有更大概率围绕当年规划的产业主线展开；（2）从资金面看，市场处于牛市 期间，两会前后 A 股市场表现与融资余额走势高度相关。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 戴清 李巍东 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 年后第一周，A 股市场迎来开门红，周期板块领涨。结构上看，本周 A 股市场主要宽基指数普 遍上涨，中证 1000 指数领涨市场，小盘股表现相对优于大盘股；分行业看，本周钢铁、有色 金属等行业领涨市场，地缘扰动持续与全球制造业复苏周期背景下周期板块领涨市场。3 月市 场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of February, the post - Spring Festival resumption of work was not weak. The construction site resumption rate and labor attendance rate were higher than those in the same lunar period of 2025, likely due to the approaching end - of - quarter month after the Spring Festival [5][30]. - In terms of inflation, food prices declined after the Spring Festival. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 1.72% and 1.96% respectively [5][10]. - Regarding exports, the freight volume weakened significantly during the holiday week, but the year - on - year figures for January - February were high, and export readings were expected to be good [5][11]. - For investment, the downstream construction site resumption rate was 1 - 2 percentage points higher than the same lunar period. It was expected that the resumption of work would accelerate further by early March, while the demand for investment products such as cement and rebar had not significantly recovered, mainly characterized by accelerated inventory accumulation [5][30]. - In the real estate sector, the post - holiday transactions of new and second - hand houses accelerated. Attention should be paid to the boosting effect of Shanghai's "Seven Measures" on the "Little Spring" market in March [5][30]. - For the bond market, the short - term repair slope of investment resumption and transaction rhythm needed to be closely monitored. The resumption of work was expected to accelerate further by early March, and the "Seven Measures" might lead to a concentrated release of second - hand housing transaction demand. The policy expectations of the Two Sessions were likely to be favorable to the bond market [5][31]. 3. Summary according to the Directory (1) Inflation - related: Food prices fell after the Spring Festival - The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 1.39% compared with the week before the holiday, and the price of vegetables decreased by 2.9% compared with before the holiday. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 1.72% and 1.96% respectively [10]. (2) Import and export - related: Export volume in February decreased slightly month - on - month but remained high year - on - year - The CCFI index decreased by 4.0% month - on - month, while the SCFI index increased by 6.5%. During the Spring Festival holiday week from February 16th to 20th, the port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 13.6% and 21.8% respectively month - on - month, and 5.5% and 23.6% respectively year - on - year. The monthly average in February increased by 19.3% and 15.1% respectively year - on - year [11]. - The BDI index increased by 2.9% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by about 7.5% compared with before the holiday [11]. (3) Industry - related: Industrial production resumed work slightly slowly - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.9% week - on - week. Industrial demand recovered, downstream replenishment willingness increased, and supply was tight, pushing up coal prices [16]. - The spot price of rebar remained stable, and the social inventory of rebar increased by 14.7% week - on - week, with the social inventory of major steel products increasing by 26.3% [16]. - The asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% compared with the week before the holiday, and the resumption of work was slow after the holiday [2][16]. - The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals market increased by 0.6% week - on - week. The glass futures price decreased compared with before the holiday, and inventory accumulation pressure still existed [18]. (4) Investment - related: Second - hand housing transactions increased after the Spring Festival - The cement price index decreased by 0.4% compared with before the holiday. As of February 25th, the national construction site resumption rate was 8.9%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the same lunar period, and the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, 3.7 percentage points higher than the same lunar period [20]. - The transaction area of new houses in 30 cities increased by 25.8% week - on - week. As of February 27th, the 7 - day rolling sum of new house transaction area in 30 cities was 769,600 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 48.1% [23]. - The transaction area of second - hand houses in 17 cities increased by 107.4% week - on - week. As of February 27th, the 7 - day rolling sum of second - hand housing transactions was 61,300 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 31.5% [23]. (5) Consumption: Post - holiday travel enthusiasm continued to rise, and international oil prices rose slightly - Affected by the resumption of work, the subway passenger volume in 29 cities increased by 24.8% week - on - week. As of February 27th, the travel volume increased by 28.9% year - on - year according to the Baidu Migration Index [4][25]. - As of February 27th, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.0% and 0.8% respectively compared with last Friday, and the upward trend continued [4][29].

人民币加速升值，3 月如何布局 西部研究月度金股报告系列（2026 年 3 月） 核心结论 1、2026 中国有望回归 2019 "价值投资元年" （1）2018 年中国正式步入工业化成熟期，制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大 量稳定的现金流。由此 A 股孕育出了 2019-22 年"价值投资"的土壤：大量拥 有稳定现金流的消费（茅指数）和制造（宁组合）得到系统性重估。 （2）《人民币升值是 2026 繁荣的契机》提示：美联储降息后人民币回归长 期升值趋势，正驱动跨境资本加速回流。中国的制造和消费行业将再次拥有 大量稳定的现金流，也将重获"价值投资者"的青睐。 2、巴菲特"价值投资"的基础，是稳定现金流的"大 DCF 资产" 1945 年开始美国正式进入工业化成熟期，制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大 量稳定的现金流。由此美股孕育出了巴菲特"价值投资"的土壤：大量拥有稳定 现金流且 CAPEX 较低的"大 DCF 资产"。 策略月报 巴菲特"价值投资"的理念是以合理价格买入现金流充沛的优质公司。上世 纪 60 年代以来，巴菲特重仓的美国运通/华盛顿邮报/可口可乐/苹果等公司， 都是现金流充裕且 CAPEX 较低的 ...

行业点评报告 · 钢铁行业 供需格局改善,政策催化预期溶 2026 年 02 月 27 日 核心观点 钢铁行业 | | | 分析师 ☎: 0755-8347-9312 网: hongye_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523060002 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 02 月 27 日 400/ 20% 资料来源:Wind. 相关研究 1.【银河钢铁】行业点评报告_钢铁行业 2025 年业 绩预告:盈利改善趋势渐显,"十五五"开局产能加 速出清 20260131 赵良毕 ☎: 010-8092-7619 区: zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030003 开标 2. 【银河钢铁】行业点评:行业盈利修复提速,龙头 优势凸显 3. 【银河钢铁】行业周报_碳市场配额方案印发,钢 铁供给侧有望收缩 www.chinastock.com.cn 洪烨,通信&钢铁组分析师。中国人民大学财务硕士,曾供职于国泰君安证券,2023年加入中国银河证券。 免责声明 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公 ...