1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term, the copper market has weak drivers, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates narrowly. Macroscopically, if subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, it is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm in the short term, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is weak, and there are disturbances in the ore end, but the actual impact is limited. The cost still has support. In the short term, there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state where the downstream is replenishing goods moderately before the festival, but the overall transaction is based on rigid demand. The raw material price is firm, and the cost has support. The short - term disk is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight balance. The supply path is becoming clearer, and the trading space is weakening. The strong demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,541 yuan/ton, up 242.3 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price was 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The import loss was 11,388.05 yuan/ton, up 1,007.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 177 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The domestic refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The Fed's "preventive" interest rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out, and the previous loose trading of copper may end. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper price will gradually rise. The short - term is at least in a shock state, and the main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and it is difficult to fundamentally reverse this pattern in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The aluminum market has a certain double - festival stocking demand, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the de - stocking inflection point has not yet arrived. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and the main contract reference range is 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of recycled aluminum is still tight, and the cost support is significant. The demand is in a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday stocking demand provides phased support for the spot price. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward rush of Shanghai zinc. The upward continuous rebound requires the demand side to improve beyond expectations and the non - recession interest rate cut expectation to continue to improve. The downward breakthrough requires the TC to strengthen beyond expectations and the refined zinc to continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [6]. Tin - The supply side is relatively strong, which supports the tin price. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265000 - 285000 [8]. Nickel - The macro - atmosphere is weak, the mine - end disturbances increase but the actual impact is limited, and the cost still has support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. The medium - term supply is still loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term main contract reference range is 120000 - 125000 [9]. Stainless Steel - The macro - expectation has been digested, and the trading has returned to the fundamentals. The raw material price is firm, and the cost support still exists, but the peak - season demand of the downstream has not been realized as expected. The short - term disk is mainly in shock adjustment, and the main contract reference range is 12800 - 13200 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the news is calm. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate and sort out, and the main price center reference range is 70000 - 75000 [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80225 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the spot premium has decreased. The refined - scrap price difference has increased by 6.85% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 4.59% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20750 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss is - 1784 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.74 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions have increased [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21950 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import loss is - 3292 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 272000 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from the previous day. The import loss is - 12395.82 yuan/ton [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In July, the tin ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 177 dollars/ton [9]. - **Cost of Electric Deposited Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electric deposited nickel is 117171 yuan/ton, down 1.15% month - on - month [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 360 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 171.33 tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 860 dollars/ton [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is innovating green financial products to support the low-carbon transformation of traditional industries, specifically focusing on the aluminum and paper sectors [1][8]. Group 1: Aluminum Industry - The SHFE launched the first domestic recycled commodity futures and options for casting aluminum alloy on June 10, 2025, filling a gap in the financial derivatives market for recycled aluminum [3]. - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys, with a production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and a consumption of about 6.73 million tons in 2024 [2]. - The carbon emissions from producing one ton of casting aluminum alloy are only 3.6% of those from traditional electrolytic aluminum, aligning with the goal of producing over 15 million tons of recycled aluminum by 2027 [2]. - As of September 19, 2025, the trading volume for casting aluminum alloy futures reached 361,200 contracts, with a total transaction value of 71.52 billion yuan, indicating strong market engagement [3]. - Major companies in the aluminum sector are actively using the casting aluminum alloy futures for hedging, improving resource utilization and risk management [4]. Group 2: Paper Industry - The SHFE introduced the world's first financial derivatives for cultural paper, specifically for offset printing paper, on September 10, 2025, to facilitate the green transformation of the paper industry [5][6]. - In 2024, China is projected to produce 9.48 million tons of offset printing paper, with a market size nearing 50 billion yuan [6]. - The introduction of offset printing paper futures allows upstream paper manufacturers to hedge against price fluctuations in raw materials, thus enhancing product quality and reducing price wars [6][7]. - The contract design for offset printing paper incorporates green principles, prioritizing "green factories" for delivery and setting strict quality standards to promote environmental sustainability [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The SHFE aims to continue developing green financial products and optimizing services to support the low-carbon transition of industries, positioning these tools as stabilizers and accelerators for high-quality economic development [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market shows a large - range oscillation tendency. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December [5][11]. - The overall price of aluminum may be under pressure and oscillate. The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. It is advisable to hold medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. - **Variety Trading Strategy**: - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week was about 20,800, and the resistance was about 21,400. Hold long positions with a light position [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900. Conduct short - term trading. Spot enterprises are recommended to increase inventory appropriately [8]. 3.2 Overall Viewpoints - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Recently, the price of Guinean bauxite has tightened seasonally due to the rainy - season shipping. After the rainy season ends, the ore price is expected to have a seasonal correction without unexpected events, but there is an obvious support at 70 US dollars/ton. In the fourth quarter, the domestic ore output will be marginally repaired, but the overall supply is difficult to improve significantly due to stricter environmental protection and supervision [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 12, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 96.8 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 86.23% (85.21% last week), which is at a high level since 2022. Since late August, the smelting profit has slightly declined. Now the spot price has dropped to the high - marginal cost, increasing the risk of alumina plant production cuts [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.1 million tons, and the operating rate is as high as 98%, with limited room for further production increase. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter only comes from 100,000 tons of Chalco Qinghai (transfer of Yunnan's quota) and a 250,000 - ton replacement project of Xinjiang Nongliushi Aluminum Industry. The net increase for the whole year is expected to be less than 500,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in 2025 is expected to be 43.96 - 44.5 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate dropping to 1.5% - 2.3%. The output in the fourth quarter may remain high but is difficult to increase significantly [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week). According to customs data, aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. Although the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, the overall resilience is still expected [9]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.6% this week. The operating rate of construction profiles remains low, while industrial profiles have received more new orders recently in the traditional peak season of September, supporting the operating rate. Most enterprises have not determined the National Day holiday arrangements, and some enterprises in Sichuan and Shandong plan to take about 3 days off [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 68.2% this week. In the short term, the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises is expected to remain stable or oscillate upward. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 71.9%, and the slowdown of leading enterprises is obvious. In the short term, supported by the peak - season effect, the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises is expected to oscillate between 72% - 75% [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remained stable at 65.2% this week. All leading manufacturers are busy. As the National Day holiday approaches, the purchasing intensity of downstream manufacturers is expected to increase further, and the operating rate is expected to rise slowly next week [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 57.4% this week, and the industry's production capacity release has slightly converged. Although the industry's operating rate is oscillating and adjusting in the short term, SMM still has an optimistic expectation for the peak season. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 55.9% this week, mainly benefiting from the alleviation of raw material procurement pressure and the moderate recovery of orders. The short - term industry operating rate will maintain a slight upward trend, but raw material shortages and policy factors will continue to suppress the capacity recovery elasticity [10]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 640,000 tons, an increase of about 3% from last week and about 14% lower than the same period last year, continuing the inventory - building trend since mid - July. This week's inventory increase is mainly due to the decrease in warehouse shipments, but the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased. The increase in electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to be limited in the near future. The aluminum rod inventory is 130,200 tons, basically stable compared with last week and about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory has risen again, continuing the inventory - building pattern since the end of June. As there are signs of the Russia - Ukraine war ending through negotiations, the previous market's hidden inventory is gradually becoming explicit, and the LME inventory is still likely to accumulate in the future [10][16]. - **Alumina**: The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants. The port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,840 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week) [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week). The profit is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. - **Personal View**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. The aluminum price may still be under pressure and consolidate in the coming week. The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900 [11]. - **Key Concerns**: 1. Changes in domestic social inventory. 2. Whether there are disturbances at the Guinean ore end. 3. The implementation of China's anti - involution - related policies [11]. 3.3 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, bauxite prices remained stable. As the rainy season in Guinea is approaching recovery and there are frequent policy - related disturbance news, and the long - term contract price in the fourth quarter has not been finalized, the increase in the supply of imported bauxite has become the focus of the market. Coal prices rose slightly, driven by pre - holiday stocking. Under strict current production capacity control, the pit - mouth price is resistant to decline. Seasonally, the single - electricity price in Yunnan is about 0.382 yuan, and it is more likely to rise in October. This week, the alumina price continued to decline slightly. Due to oversupply and inventory accumulation, the spot price is under pressure [12]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - This week, the domestic port bauxite inventory slightly rebounded, continuing to accumulate to a recent high since the beginning of 2025 and stabilizing at a high level after August. However, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants is still increasing. According to DISR's forecast, the export volume of Australian bauxite is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, while the port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry this week is about 2,840 yuan/ton, the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical import profit of alumina is about 150 yuan/ton (120 yuan/ton last week); the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17,200 yuan/ton (about 17,500 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week); the theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week) [18]. - **Downstream Processing**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% this week, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating of leading primary alloy enterprises is stable, but small and medium - sized enterprises' operating rates have adjusted due to demand fluctuations; the operating rate of sampled aluminum sheet enterprises decreased slightly this week; the operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable; the operating rate of profiles increased slightly, mainly because industrial profiles are supported by orders from the automotive and photovoltaic industries; the demand for packaging foil is rigid but has limited growth; the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry increased slightly. The weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [22][23]. 3.6 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai aluminum futures price structure is weak [28]. 3.7 Spread Structure - This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,040 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,940 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the current spread has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. 3.8 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: After remaining stable for the previous four weeks, the net long position of funds in the latest period has significantly increased, mainly related to the Fed's interest rate cut in September. According to the dot - plot, there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and the overall market is still bullish [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long position of the main contract slightly declined, and both the long and short camps slightly reduced their positions; the net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation slightly reduced. The funds mainly from mid - and downstream enterprises changed from a slight net long position to a slight net short position and have been in a stalemate between long and short recently. Judging from the performance of the current main funds, the market may oscillate and be under pressure in the coming week [41].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The impact of rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reason and macro - background. The previous loose trading may end, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the short - term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend, and the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price was volatile last week. The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand pull from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection point [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price declined last week. The cost support is significant, and the demand is in a mild recovery. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The import TC is rising steadily, and the supply side is expected to be loose. The demand side shows differentiation at home and abroad. The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates in September. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000. Attention should be paid to the tin ore import from Myanmar [9]. Nickel - The nickel price was volatile last week. After the Fed's rate cut, the macro - sentiment was digested. There is no obvious change in the spot transaction of refined nickel. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 120,000 - 125,000, and attention should be paid to the macro - expectation and ore news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price declined slightly last week. The raw material price is firm, but the peak - season demand has not been realized. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill dynamics and peak - season demand [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price was volatile last week. The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained at 79,990 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper's premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton, with a 6.70% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.18 million tons to 72.45 million tons, with a 4.59% increase [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 209 yuan/ton to 1850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - new spreads in different regions increased, with the largest increase of 2.43% in the Foshan profile aluminum scrap - new spread [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 15.17 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing starting rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 58.05% [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 269,300 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 tin premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 122,750 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 179 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons, with a 2.07% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,100 yuan/ton. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.60 million tons to 47.20 million tons, with a 1.26% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 858 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report [2] - Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team [1] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Strategy Recommendations - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Strategy Recommendations: - Alumina: Suggested to wait and see [5] - Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum): Suggested to go long on dips [5] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Suggested to go long on dips or use the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [5] Group 3: Core Views - Despite inventory accumulation during the peak season, due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and the opening of domestic policy windows, it's recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [4] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US Treasury real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan [7][8] 2. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, with prices in Shanxi and Henan remaining stable. Mining activities are restricted by safety supervision, environmental inspections, and the rainy season. Since mid - August, alumina plants have increasingly used imported ores [11] - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.1 per dry ton week - on - week to $74.9 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea supports the price, but the sharp drop in alumina prices exerts downward pressure. Long - term contract price negotiations for the fourth quarter will start in mid - to late September [11] 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 9,795 tons, an increase of 40 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 85.15% [15] - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 3,010.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 yuan per ton [15] - The national alumina inventory was 371.9 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons week - on - week. The alumina industry is in a high - stable production state, with new capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north gradually entering a stable production state [15] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.2 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 4,442.9 tons, an increase of 2 tons week - on - week. The remaining capacity of Baise Yinhai's technical renovation project continued to resume production [22] 5. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum futures inventory, and London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30][31] 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The starting rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 55.9% [34] - The four - ministry joint notice on standardizing investment promotion behaviors requires the cleanup of local government's illegal tax rebates. The decline in aluminum prices has increased the enthusiasm of scrap aluminum traders to sell, and with the continuous mild recovery of the downstream, orders have recovered moderately, and the starting rate of recycled aluminum alloy has continued to rise [34] 7. Downstream Start - up - The starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1% week - on - week to 62.2% [45] - Aluminum profiles: The starting rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 0.6% week - on - week to 54.6%. Industrial profiles, especially photovoltaic and automotive profiles, showed different trends, while the construction profile market remained sluggish [45] - Aluminum strips: The starting rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 68.2%. High aluminum prices at the beginning of the week suppressed downstream orders, and the increase in scrap aluminum prices may affect future starting rates [45] - Aluminum cables: The starting rate of domestic cable leading enterprises remained stable at 65.2%. Enterprises focused on power grid orders and some photovoltaic alloy cable orders, and purchased raw materials based on rigid demand due to high aluminum prices [49] - Primary aluminum alloy: The starting rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 57.6%. Short - term procurement slowdown in the downstream has affected the starting rate, and although most enterprises are optimistic about the peak season in September, some are more cautious about short - term expansion [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The Fed's "preventive" rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support, and the copper price center will gradually rise. In the short term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend. The main contract is expected to trade between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, considering the cost, the downside space is limited, while the upside needs Guinea's supply changes or macro - sentiment catalysis. It is expected to trade between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overall macro - environment is still slightly positive. The cost of alumina is weak, and demand is in the traditional peak season. However, the inventory is accumulating, so the price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, and the supply is constrained. The demand is moderately recovering, and the pre - holiday stocking demand supports the spot price. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand shows a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The zinc price is under pressure. In the short term, it may be driven by the macro - environment to rise, but the fundamentals have limited support for continuous upward movement. It is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The macro - environment has a mixed impact. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in traditional sectors but has some growth in emerging sectors. The fundamentals continue to improve, and the tin price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [9]. - **Nickel**: After the Fed's rate - cut expectation is realized, the macro - sentiment is digested. The industry has limited changes, and the inventory is rising overseas and slightly increasing domestically. The price is expected to be in an interval - volatile range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - environment is weak overseas and positive domestically. The raw material price is firm, but the demand in the peak season fails to meet expectations. The price is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, with the main contract trading between 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - sentiment is gradually digested. The supply path is clear, and the demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price remains unchanged at 79,990 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper premium increases by 15 yuan/ton. The SMM wet - process copper price rises by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increases by 110 yuan/ton, or 6.70% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 40 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreases by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production is 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the electrolytic copper import volume is 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The copper concentrate inventory in domestic ports increases by 3.18 million tons, or 4.59% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rises by 30 yuan/ton, or 0.14%. The import loss increases by 209 yuan/ton. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreases by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production is 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production is 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The electrolytic aluminum import volume in July is 24.83 million tons, and the export volume is 4.10 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increase. The 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 5 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots is 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreases by 20 yuan/ton, or 0.09%. The import loss increases by 15.17 yuan/ton. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 15 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production is 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the refined zinc import volume is 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%, and the export volume is 0.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78.45% [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreases by 900 yuan/ton, or 0.33%. The SMM 1 tin premium increases by 50 yuan/ton, or 14.29%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increases by 30.59 dollars/ton, or 19.74% [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import volume is 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 is - 179 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss of futures increases by 13.47% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in August is 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The refined nickel import volume is 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread remains unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in August is 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume is 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30%, and the export volume is 41.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.07%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 60 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production is 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand is 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. The total inventory is 94,177 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the FOMC meeting, the bullish factors were exhausted, and the Shanghai copper futures price oscillated. The macro - environment showed that the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The previous loose trading for copper may have ended, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The fundamentals were in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provided bottom support, and in the short - term, copper prices oscillated strongly under the loose background. The subsequent upward cycle needed the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract was 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market was in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply - side factors such as the potential restart of a mining company in Guinea and a possible strike, as well as production cuts in Henan due to environmental protection, provided short - term support, but the overall supply was in excess. The demand was weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term main contract was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro - atmosphere was bullish, and the fundamentals improved moderately. The short - term price was expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. If the demand improvement was less than expected, the price might fall back [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and declined with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the procurement cost of recycled aluminum enterprises was high, which supported the price. The demand showed a mild recovery, and the inventory was still accumulating. The short - term main contract was expected to run in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices were generally strong, but Shanghai zinc was relatively weak due to the expectation of loose supply. The supply side saw overseas mines entering the production and resumption cycle, and the smelting profit was repaired. The demand entered the peak season, but the domestic and overseas performance was differentiated. The short - term price might be driven up by the macro - environment, but the upward space was limited. The reference range for the main contract was 21500 - 22500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September as expected. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and the demand was weak. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was difficult to make up for the decline in traditional demand. If the supply in Myanmar recovered smoothly, a short - selling strategy could be considered; otherwise, the price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the running range of 265000 - 285000 [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the macro - environment was weak. The spot trading of refined nickel did not change significantly. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was relatively loose, and the price of nickel - iron was strong. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly and weakened in the afternoon. The spot price decreased slightly, and the market trading was average. The macro - environment overseas was weak after the Fed's interest - rate cut, while domestic policies were positive. The raw material prices were firm, and the supply of nickel - iron increased, but the demand for stainless steel had not significantly increased. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 12800 - 13400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated sharply. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the domestic policies had been digested by the market. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state. The supply increased due to new projects and increased lithium - spodumene processing, and the demand was expected to increase in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main - contract price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [15]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in August was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.44 million tons week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The alumina production in August was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.3 million tons week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20950 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production in August was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points week - on - week, and the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in August was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The galvanizing开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 0.43 million tons week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price was 270200 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in July decreased by 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHEF inventory increased by 124 tons, and the social inventory increased by 108 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous day. The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 400 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 460 tons week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.83 million tons month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.60 million tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.451 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in August was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The lithium carbonate total inventory in August decreased by 366 tons month - on - month, and the downstream inventory increased by 7552 tons month - on - month [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under a loose background. The main contract is expected to range between 80,000 - 82,000 [1] Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if cost support weakens and demand does not improve significantly, prices may decline. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If demand improvement fails to meet expectations, prices may fall [3] Aluminum Alloy - As the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season approaches, spot prices are expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow further. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4] Zinc - Due to the expected supply surplus, the upside space for Shanghai zinc is limited. In the short term, prices may rise driven by the macro environment, but the fundamental support for continuous upward movement is insufficient. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 21,800 - 22,800 [7] Tin - Supply remains tight, and with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level. The operating range is expected to be between 265,000 - 285,000 [9] Nickel - Macro sentiment is strengthening, costs are supported, and there are no obvious short - term supply - demand contradictions, but the inventory reduction pace has slowed down. In the medium term, the supply surplus will limit the upside space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in a strong - side range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11] Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, raw material prices are firm, and inventory pressure is easing. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released. In the short term, the price will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - Affected by positive policy information, the market sentiment is strong. The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center ranging from 70,000 - 75,000 [14] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 81,120 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. Other copper - related prices and premiums also showed different changes [1] Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton; alumina prices in different regions decreased slightly [3] Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions remained unchanged. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in different regions increased [4] Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. The import loss was 3,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.09 yuan/ton [7] Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.33% to 272,400 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 277.36% to - 132.00 US dollars/ton [9] Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 123,600 yuan/ton; the import loss decreased by 18.32% to 1,507 yuan/ton [11] Supply - Demand and Inventory - In August, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. Refined nickel imports were 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,200 yuan/ton; the futures - spot price difference increased by 14.29% to 400 yuan/ton [13] Fundamental Data - In August, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30% [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.55% to 72,850 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 70,600 yuan/ton [14] Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. Lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [14]