Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which is expected to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development, particularly in the context of a complex external environment and weakening global economic growth [7][22] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a focus on domestic growth stabilization policies and the progress of US-China trade negotiations [5][21] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a slight adjustment post-holiday, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.51%, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.49% [3][14] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, and the active ten-year government bond futures increased by 0.26% [3][14] - The report notes a mixed performance in various asset classes, with coal futures rising by 2.42% and iron ore futures declining by 0.38% [3][14] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while recommending a lower allocation to bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [5][15] - The allocation to commodities is maintained at a standard level, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policies [5][15] Economic Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.0% [21][22] - Consumer spending during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with significant growth in both goods and services consumption [21][22] Industry-Specific Developments - The report highlights the government's support for consumption through the issuance of special bonds totaling 690 billion yuan to promote the replacement of old consumer goods [22][23] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies encouraging trade-ins, with a notable increase in sales anticipated [35][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is "Weak" [1][5] 2. Report's Core View - Due to systemic risks, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The contract closed 4.27% lower at 448.5 yuan/barrel last Friday, and it may continue this trend on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - Short - term view: The short - term trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is weak [1] - Medium - term view: The medium - term trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is weak and volatile [1][5] - Intraday view: The intraday trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is a decline [1][5] Driving Factors - Geopolitical and economic factors: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, causing the peripheral financial markets to weaken. The US government is in a shutdown due to the lack of consensus between the two parties. These factors contribute to systemic risks [5] - Supply factors: Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5] - Geopolitical situation: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing. The "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has diminished [5]

【编者语】 国庆长假归来，资本市场已经悄悄换了一片天。黄金闪耀、A股起舞、全球央行政策转向......这个假期，资本市场的精彩程度丝毫不输热门景区。我们 梳理了六大值得关注的市场看点，带你快速读懂假期期间发生的那些"资本大戏"。你的持仓，准备好了吗？ 【免责声明】 本文由北京明德蓝鹰投资咨询有限公司撰写，仅为行业研究与商业案例以及探讨市值管理问题之目的而分享，不构成任何投资建议。我们所采用的信 息均来自公开披露资料，但我们无法保证其完整性与准确性。文中所有对公司的提及均旨在进行技术、模式或竞争格局分析，绝非股票推荐。请您知 悉，所有投资决策均伴随风险。我们强烈建议您基于个人独立判断并寻求专业顾问的意见。请务必谨慎决策，风险自担。 朋友们，节后开盘是不是感觉错过了一个亿？这个国庆，资本市场可比景区热闹多了，从黄金冲破天际到A股节后发红包，从美联储的"鸽声嘹亮"到 原油价格的"跌跌不休"……今天咱们就来聊聊这些比你假期还"刺激"的资本大戏。 热点一：黄金破4000美元，闪闪发光 国际金价在假期期间突破每盎司4000美元大关，创下历史新高。节后A股开盘，黄金板块直接起飞，多只黄金股涨停。 点评：这金光闪闪的行情，比 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The research report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with the return of concentrated domestic installations, high production profits, and increased imports, supply pressure is high. Demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. However, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped less. Supply pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory rose. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the rubber price broke down in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, although the spot and futures prices are falling, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the port inventory may decline, and the price may stop falling [19]. - For polyethylene, cost support exists, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may fluctuate upward [22]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure remains, demand is seasonally rebounding from a low level, and inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [25]. - For PX, the load remains high, downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the expected PX inventory accumulation cycle will continue. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side overhaul volume is high, the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures fell 6.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.45%, to 461.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.31 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels, naphtha inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and verify OPEC's export - price - support intention when oil prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang fell 3 yuan, in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 2307 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 12 to - 44 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the current short - selling cost - effectiveness is low [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong fell 20 yuan, and in Henan fell 30 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 12 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 57. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to - 69 [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. Forecasted rainfall in Thailand and other places will increase in the next 7 - 14 days. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 95. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318. The cost side remained stable, the overall开工率 was 82.6%, and the downstream开工率 was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term due to strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price fell 75 yuan/ton to 6743 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 125.75 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.44 million tons to 20.19 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54% [18]. - **Strategy**: The styrene price may stop falling as the BZN spread has room for upward repair and the seasonal peak season is approaching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 40 yuan/ton to 7037 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 83.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 million tons to 38.27 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 million tons to 4.67 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 45% [21]. - **Strategy**: The price may fluctuate upward as cost support exists and the seasonal peak season is approaching [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 23 yuan/ton to 6722 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6780 yuan/ton. The basis was 58 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 77.29%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 52% [24]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction due to high supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory pressure [25]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX** - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 82 yuan to 6504 yuan. The PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 798 dollars. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. Some domestic and overseas installations restarted, and one Japanese installation was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4534 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4490 yuan. The PTA load was 74.4%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on September 26 was 210.7 million tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the supply - side overhaul volume is high and the processing fee space is limited [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 58 yuan to 4100 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 18 yuan to 4206 yuan. The supply - side load was 75.1%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The port inventory increased by 9.8 million tons to 50.7 million tons [30]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [31].

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国原油行业市场行情监测及发展趋向研判报告》 上市企业：中国石油（601857）,中国石化（600028）,大庆华科（000985）,广汇能源（600256）,潜能恒 信（300191）,ST海越（600387） 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年4月中国原油产量为1772万吨，同比增长1.5%；2025年1-4月中国原油 累计产量为7181.1万吨，累计增长1.2%。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 2020-2025年1-4月中国原油产量统计图 ...

Group 1: Iran-U.S. Negotiations - Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif stated that Iran is open to negotiations with the U.S. only if they are based on mutual respect and equality, focusing solely on nuclear issues [1][2] - Zarif emphasized that the U.S. demand for Iran to surrender all 60% enriched uranium in exchange for a six-month delay in sanctions is unreasonable and unacceptable [1][2] - Iran has expressed willingness to negotiate under a multilateral framework involving the UK, France, Germany, and the IAEA, but the U.S. has rejected this proposal [2] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Global commodity markets are under pressure from trade tensions, leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices, with WTI crude futures falling to $58.90 per barrel, a decrease of 4.24% [3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to seasonal demand fluctuations, with a decrease of 1 to 3 million barrels per day expected as the market enters the off-peak season [4] - Analysts predict that oil prices may continue to decline, with expectations of a range between $55 and $65 per barrel in the near term due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties [5] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Market - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a significant pullback, with LME copper and tin prices dropping over 3% due to renewed trade tensions [6] - Despite the recent downturn, the fundamentals for certain metals like copper remain strong, with supply tightness expected to support prices [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the performance of non-ferrous metals will largely depend on macroeconomic factors and the evolving trade landscape, with a focus on strong performers like copper and tin [7]

Core Viewpoints - Focus on the performance fundamentals driven by the earnings season, emphasizing technology and resource sectors [7][8] Global Asset Review - Global stock markets mostly declined during the week of October 10, with the Nikkei 225 leading gains due to policy expectations from Japan's new ruling party president, while major markets erased gains from the holiday period due to US-China trade tensions [11][12] - Major commodity futures saw gold and aluminum prices rise, while crude oil and copper prices fell; the US dollar index increased, leading to depreciation of major non-USD currencies [11][12] Domestic Equity Market Review - In the domestic equity market for the week ending October 10, cyclical stocks outperformed financials, consumption, and growth sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 25,869 billion yuan, up from 21,743 billion yuan [16] - Among the 31 primary industries tracked, 17 sectors rose while 14 fell, with notable gains in non-ferrous metals (+4.44%), coal (+4.41%), and steel (+4.18%), while media (-3.83%), electronics (-2.63%), and electric equipment (-2.52%) saw significant declines [18] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, supported by seasonal fiscal spending and cash inflows post-holiday, despite pressures from tax payments and policy tool expirations [9][19] - The yield on 10Y US Treasury bonds decreased to 4.05%, while the yield on 10Y Chinese government bonds fell to 1.846%, indicating a trend of declining yields amid rising risk aversion [12][43] Commodity Tracking - As of October 10, WTI crude oil prices fell to $58.90 per barrel, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous week, while US crude oil production increased to 13.629 million barrels per day [25] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,017.85 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid ongoing US government shutdown and trade tensions [41][42] - Refined copper prices increased, with SHFE electrolytic copper settling at 86,285 yuan per ton, up 4.3% week-on-week, reflecting strong demand in construction and electrical sectors [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, from September 26 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% to 1.775%. Considering the decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the fact that the manufacturing PMI has not returned above the boom - bust line, the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The interest - rate decline days in the bond market due to the second "tariff war" may be less than a week, and investors are advised to trade cautiously, maintaining the view that interest rates have a ceiling and a floor this year [10][15]. - After the release of a series of US data in October, including EIA crude oil inventory, consumer credit change, etc., the current main market trend still revolves around computing power and electricity. Monetary policy expectations in countries such as the US and Japan may extend the bubble period and boost the prices of gold and resource - related products while increasing inflation expectations. The increase in US crude oil inventory and the weakness in consumer credit and consumer confidence may suppress oil prices and put the Fed in a "dilemma" in terms of interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Bond Trading Opportunities Amid the Escalation of the Sino - US Trade War - From September 29 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% on September 26 to 1.775%. During the week, factors such as policy announcements, PMI data, and central bank operations affected the yield fluctuations. The decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the sub - par manufacturing PMI suggest that the economic recovery foundation needs repair, and the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The second "tariff war" has led to a decline in interest rates, but the duration may be less than a week [10][11][15]. 3.1.2 Future Changes in US Treasury Yields After Data Release - The current market is sensitive to external disturbances. The main trend still focuses on computing power and electricity. The increase in US crude oil inventory, weak consumer credit, and low consumer confidence may suppress oil prices. The Fed is in a "dilemma" regarding interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In the open - market operations from September 29 to October 10, 2025, the total net investment was - 7281 billion yuan. The money - market interest rates showed certain changes. The issuance and yields of interest - rate bonds also had corresponding fluctuations [28][30][33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices declined comprehensively, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices rose. The total trading area of commercial housing decreased. The VIX fear index led the gains, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the losses. The US Treasury yields declined overall, and the dollar index led the gains while the yen led the losses [51][52][65]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the week from September 29 to October 10, 2025, 27 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 825.28 billion yuan, including 566.38 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 159.69 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 99.20 billion yuan in new general bonds. The net financing amount was 386.37 billion yuan. Seven provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds, and no local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of such bonds has reached 19,649.46 billion yuan. The total early - redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 5.00 billion yuan, all from Chongqing [81][84][88]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The current stock of local government bonds is 53.49 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 771.54 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.14%. The top three provinces with the most active local government bond trading are Guangdong, Inner Mongolia, and Hebei, and the top three active trading terms are 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local government bonds generally increased [91][94][95]. 3.3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month - Relevant local government bond issuance plans are presented in the form of a chart, but specific numerical details are not further described in the text [97]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the primary market this week, 90 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 771.59 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 1,865.20 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 1,093.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,859.60 billion yuan compared to last week. By type, urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of - 554.32 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of - 539.29 billion yuan [99][100]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds was 1.6622%, a decrease of 2.73bp; the issuance interest rate of medium - term notes was 2.2088%, a decrease of 3.95bp; and the issuance interest rate of corporate bonds was 2.1900%, a decrease of 4.16bp [108]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Trading Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 1,604.13 billion yuan. By rating, the trading volume of AAA - rated bonds was the largest, reaching 1,113.18 billion yuan [110]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds declined comprehensively. The yields of short - term financing and medium - term notes and corporate bonds generally declined, while the yields of urban investment bonds generally increased [111][113][116]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the credit spreads of corporate bonds generally narrowed, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [120][121][126]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened [130][132][136]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds in each category are listed, including short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, etc. Most of the highly - traded bonds are AAA - rated [142]. 3.4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - The credit ratings of two issuers were upgraded this week, namely Xiangtan Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Jiangyou Hongfei Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. There were no bonds with downgraded ratings or outlooks [145].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In the first two weeks of October, the National Day holiday slowed down industrial production and downstream investment. Food prices declined after the holiday. The SCFI index rose slightly while the CCFI decline widened. Port freight volume remained high during the National Day. Most industrial product operating rates decreased in the first week after the holiday, with a slow resumption. Cement and rebar prices fell slightly, and real - estate transactions decreased seasonally and were lower year - on - year. - For the bond market, the repeated overseas trade situation may briefly boost bond market sentiment, but domestic macro - policies are expected to take effect. In October, fundamental factors are mixed. The market should focus on changes in risk appetite and bond market expectations. The "wide - credit" tools are expected to help the economy achieve its annual growth target [5][40][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices accelerated their decline after the holiday. The average wholesale price of pork, vegetables, and fruits all decreased. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the vegetable basket product wholesale price index changed from rising to falling [9]. 3.2 Import - export related - Freight demand remained strong around the holiday. The CCFI index decline widened, while the SCFI index rebounded. North American route transport demand stabilized slightly due to US trade policy changes, and route freight rates increased. Port throughput remained high during the National Day. The BDI and CDFI indices weakened for two consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Industry - related - After the holiday, the thermal coal price stopped falling and stabilized due to increased power plant consumption and potential supply tightening. The rebar inventory reduction slowed down due to the holiday. Copper prices rose strongly for two consecutive weeks due to tight supply and the "weak - dollar" expectation. Glass futures prices fell slightly for two consecutive weeks [17][22]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices declined slightly after the holiday. New and second - hand housing transactions slowed down due to the holiday, with performance weaker than in 2024 [26][30]. 3.5 Consumption - related - From September 1st to 27th, passenger car retail sales were flat year - on - year. Crude oil prices declined for two consecutive weeks. During the National Day holiday, the number of travelers increased slightly year - on - year, but per - capita spending decreased by 0.6% [33][35][38].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant market downturn triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to a sharp decline in major stock indices and tech stocks [4][5][9] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell over 3%, marking its largest single-day drop since April, with major tech stocks like TSMC, Broadcom, and Tesla experiencing declines of over 5% [4][5] - Chinese stocks were particularly hard hit, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping over 6%, reflecting a broader trend of significant losses in popular Chinese assets [5][9] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of new export controls imposed by China on rare earth elements, which has led to increased speculation in the U.S. rare earth sector, with companies like MP Materials seeing gains of over 8% [7][19] - The article notes that the market is currently in a precarious position, with expectations of a significant market correction if no positive developments occur before the opening of the Hong Kong and A-share markets [13][19] - It emphasizes the potential for a "TACO trading" pattern, where market volatility may lead to opportunities for recovery, although caution is advised until the outcome of negotiations is clear [21]