Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence with weak goods consumption and strong service consumption, particularly in travel and cinema during the summer[1] - Automotive retail sales have slightly declined, while wholesale volumes have increased, indicating seasonal and promotional impacts on consumption[9] - Food prices continue to drop, with agricultural products seeing an expanding year-on-year decline, particularly affecting premium products like Moutai liquor[9] Investment Insights - As of August 2, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached CNY 2.8 trillion, marking the second-highest issuance pace since 2022, with July alone contributing CNY 616.94 billion[17] - New housing transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, but the year-on-year decline in average transaction area has widened from 14.8% to 15.4%[17] Price and Production Dynamics - Consumer prices are on a downward trend, with industrial prices also showing marginal declines, leading to a cooling of price increase expectations[36] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a slight decrease, with the South China price index dropping by 1.1% week-on-week, reflecting a shift in market supply and demand expectations[36] Import and Export Activity - Port operations have slowed due to typhoon impacts, with a year-on-year decline in the number of ships docking at ports[21] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.3% compared to the previous week, while import rates have slightly increased by 1.1%[21] Liquidity Conditions - Funding rates have decreased, with R007 down by 20.7 basis points and DR007 down by 22.8 basis points, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative liquidity environment[39] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen by 2.7 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting easing pressures in the funding market[39]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production in China shows divergence, with raw material production demonstrating relative resilience[1] - Daily pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, while steel and construction material production and apparent demand have marginally declined[1] - The operating rates for petroleum asphalt and some chemical products have recovered, while cement clinker capacity utilization remains stable compared to last week[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 18.4% year-on-year as of August 1, 2025, with a 19.3% decline in July compared to the previous month[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.48% month-on-month as of July 21, 2025[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - National retail sales of passenger cars from July 1-27, 2025, reached 1.445 million units, a 9% increase year-on-year, while the total market for July is estimated at around 1.85 million units, up 7.6% year-on-year[1] - Major home appliance retail sales increased by 18.5% year-on-year as of July 25, 2025[1] - Daily movie box office revenue averaged 230 million yuan, a 27.9% increase year-on-year, with a government subsidy program in Beijing to encourage attendance[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 10.9% year-on-year as of July 27, 2025, with container throughput up by 5.6%[1] - South Korea's export value grew by 5.9% year-on-year in July, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from June[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 3.8%, with the black raw materials index down by 5.6%[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 4.6%, while spot prices decreased by 2.3%; coking coal futures fell by 13.2%, but spot prices rose by 1.2%[1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shougang's blast furnaces, once pivotal in steel production, are now being repurposed into new venues such as exhibition halls and sci-fi parks, marking a significant transformation in the company's operations [2]. Group 2 - Shougang Park has been established as the permanent venue for the Service Trade Fair, indicating a strategic shift towards service-oriented activities [2][4].

| 发的中下游投机补库令淡季需求表现为"淡季不淡"，钢厂在手订单尚可；但涨价后出口新单显著萎缩、海外需 | | --- | | 求窗口暂未打开，前期中游囤积库存的消化依赖终端需求实际承接能力，同时电炉利润大幅改善加剧钢材边 | | 际供应压力。综合而言，支撑近期上涨的利多驱动减弱，市场回归基本面主导，而下游终端需求尚未打开上 | | 行空间，短期缺乏明确向上驱动；不过煤矿超产检查趋严及后续阅兵限产因素仍存，钢材需求有待验证，市 | | 场抛压不大，"反内卷"预期虽弱化但未消失，因此盘面虽有回调压力且短期走势偏空，但预计难回落至前期低 | | 点。 | 南华期货钢材（螺纹钢、热卷）周报 ----乐观情绪降温 2025/08/02 严志妮 投资咨询证号：Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周报核心观点 周度盘面回顾：本周在政治局会议结束后，市场对于反内卷的预期乐观情绪出现回落，叠加特朗普称8月1日 关税最后期限不会延长，周五晚上非农数据大幅下修，再度引发市场对美国衰退预期的担忧，产业面上本周 钢联表需数据不及预期，在上述利空影响下，盘面出现下跌。 产业表现：供应端，本周铁水产量出现 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Impact of Tariffs - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% in 2023, significantly higher than the 2.4% in 2024, which may increase inflation and weaken corporate profitability [3] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies includes a slowdown in global trade flows, reduced investment and consumption growth, and potential restructuring of global supply chains [3] - The legal standing of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, pending a final ruling from the Supreme Court [4] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September or October, and a total of four cuts by June 2024, amounting to 100 basis points [6][7] - High tariffs may hinder the Fed's ability to cut rates due to rising inflation and weakening corporate earnings [6] Group 3: Precious Metals and Investment Strategies - Gold prices are expected to rise, with a forecast of $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by geopolitical risks and increased central bank gold reserves [8] - The market may see a correction in gold prices due to reduced uncertainty from tariff policies and a historical high price level [8] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation - U.S. economic and stock market pressures may lead to a decline in trust in dollar assets, while European stocks may attract investment due to lower valuations [10] - A-shares and H-shares are expected to benefit from policy support and improved fundamentals, with a focus on cyclical stocks and technology growth sectors [10] Group 5: Sector Focus in Chinese Market - The market is showing a "high-low" switching characteristic influenced by infrastructure policies and trade risks, with a focus on cyclical stocks and technology sectors [13] - The AI sector is anticipated to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor and technology index stocks [13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In July, the prices of iron ore, rebar, and hot-rolled coils in the black metal futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, and the weak reality dominates. Iron ore is in a rebalancing stage of "expected supply increase + collapsing demand reality", rebar has entered the initial stage of negative feedback from "demand collapse" to "passive inventory accumulation", and hot-rolled coils have a stronger fundamentals than building materials, but downstream sentiment is cautious [1][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Iron Ore**: In July, the futures price of iron ore first rose and then fell. The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 779.0 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 63.5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 8.87%. Overseas macroscopically, the number of non-farm payrolls in the US in July increased by 73,000, the lowest in 9 months; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 26 was 218,000, lower than expected. China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden and reached an important consensus to suspend the tariff extension for 90 days [1][12]. - **Rebar**: In July, the futures price of rebar first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,205 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 208 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 6.94%. Domestically, an important meeting at the end of the month set the tone for the economic work in the second half of the year, and macro policies continued to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner. The GDP rankings of 31 provinces in the first half of the year were released. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it would regulate the disorderly competition of enterprises and carry out a solid campaign to clean up and rectify market access barriers [1][12]. - **Hot-Rolled Coils**: In July, the futures price of hot-rolled coils first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract of hot-rolled coils closed at 3,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 267 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 8.55%. Industrially, the manufacturing PMI in China in July was 49.3%, and the overall output of the economy maintained an expansion. The profit of the steel industry in the first half of the year increased by 13.7 times [1][12]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Iron Ore** - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume continued to rise to 3,200.9 tons, a week-on-week increase of 92 tons, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 382 tons this year; the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports continued to decline to 2,319.7 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 192 tons [2][16]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills continued to decrease. The daily average molten iron output was 240.71 tons/day, a decrease of 1.5 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 1.98 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 4.09 tons/day year-on-year [2][16]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 174 tons week-on-week, 1,388 tons less than at the beginning of the year, and 1,412 tons lower than the inventory of the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory may decrease slightly next period [2][17]. - **Rebar** - **Supply**: The supply of five major steel products this week was 867.42 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.45 tons and an increase rate of 0.1%. Except for hot-rolled and cold-rolled products, the output decreased week-on-week, mainly due to short-term maintenance of individual steel mills and molten iron transfer. The total inventory was 1,351.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 15.39 tons and an increase rate of 1.15% [2][22]. - **Demand**: The weekly consumption of the five major products this week was 852.03 tons, a decrease of 1.9%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 7.1% week-on-week, and the consumption of plates increased by 4.2% week-on-week, reflecting the seasonal impact of the off-season [2][22]. - **Hot-Rolled Coils** - **Supply**: Among 37 hot-rolled coil production enterprises with a total of 64 production lines, 52 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 81.25%, a week-on-week increase of 1.56%; the capacity utilization rate of steel mills this week was 82.47%, a week-on-week increase of 1.35%; there was no new blast furnace or production line maintenance; the average daily output affected by unsaturated production was 7.20 tons, unchanged week-on-week; the actual output of steel mills this week was 322.79 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.30 tons [3][26]. - **Demand**: The in-plant inventory of steel mills was 79.30 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.30 tons. The total volume of specific hot-rolled commercial coils was about 210.84 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.31 tons; the total volume of internal supply materials was about 111.95 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 tons [26]. - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar (HC - RB) has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to intervene to narrow the spread by shorting hot-rolled coils and going long on rebar, with a target of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [6][29][32]. 3. Market Outlook - **Iron Ore**: In July, the iron ore price showed a significant rebound and then declined at the end of the month. Fundamentally, there is a coexistence of rising shipments and falling arrivals on the supply side, and there is great pressure on future arrivals; on the demand side, the molten iron output is at a high level and shows signs of decline, and the drag from the terminal is becoming more obvious; on the inventory side, there is a divergence between the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products at the terminal and the de - stocking at the port, and the subsequent demand pressure may be transmitted to the middle and upper reaches. It is recommended that spot enterprises lock in profits at high prices; for short - term trading, if the price rebounds above 800 yuan, short - sell at high prices and set a stop - loss at 810 yuan; since there are no major meetings in August and the industrial pricing power is recovering, it is recommended to arrange medium - and long - term positions after September, and pay attention to the inflection point of port inventory accumulation and the signal of production reduction when the molten iron output falls below 2.4 million tons [5][31]. - **Rebar**: In July, the rebar price showed a significant rebound. At the end of the month, the fundamentals deteriorated, with an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, indicating the pressure of off - season demand. The steel market has entered the initial stage of negative feedback from "demand collapse" to "passive inventory accumulation". It is recommended to continue to focus on short - term "short - selling on rebounds" for the rebar 2510 contract, and pay attention to the news of environmental protection restrictions in the north and the implementation of capacity policies for medium - and long - term trading [5][31][32]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: In July, the hot - rolled coil price showed a significant rebound. Fundamentally, the fundamentals of plates are stronger than those of building materials. This week, the in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the East China region. The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and orders have decreased compared with last week, with both production and inventory increasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to repair the spread between building materials and plates. Since the spread (HC - RB) has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton, short hot - rolled coils and go long on rebar, with a target of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [6][32].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-08-04 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 市 场 情 绪 继 续 降 温 ， 价 格 回 调 监 管 ＋ 宏 观 事 件 落 地 ， " 反内卷 " 交 易 扭 转 03 铁矿石 反 内 卷 情 绪 降 温 ， 近 月 回 归 基 本 面 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：市场情绪继续降温，价格回调 螺纹热卷产量及表需 0 80 160 240 320 400 480 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 08/28 10/27 12/26 2020 2021 2022 2 ...

国内市场综述 探底回升 缩量整理 周五（8 月 1 日）大盘探底回升，缩量整理。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3559.95 点，下跌 0.37%；深成指 收于 10991.32 点，下跌 0.17%；科创 50 下跌 1.06%； 创业板指下跌 0.24%，万得全 A 成交额共 16199 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 13 个行业上涨，其 中传媒、轻工制造及家电涨幅居前，仅石油石化、国 防军工及钢铁则跌幅较大。概念方面，K-12 教育、钙 钛矿电池及 SPD 等指数表现活跃。 1. 两部门发文恢复征收国债、地方债、金融债券利息 收入增值税 2. 国家发改委：推动民营企业更多参与国家重大项目 建设 3. 八部门印发《机械工业数字化转型实施方案》 4. 港交所 IPO 定价机制迎来重要改革 5. 美国贸易代表称关税政策将基本维持现状 6. 全球重要经济数据发布 风险提示 海外市场综述 美国三大股指全线收跌，亚马逊股价跌逾 8% 周五（8 月 1 日），美国三大股指全线收跌。道琼斯 工业指数跌 1.23%，标普 500 指数跌 1.60%，纳斯达克 指数跌 2.24%。全周，道琼斯工 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In July, the steel market showed signs of recovery with significant increases in both raw material and finished product prices, with raw material prices rising more than finished products [1] - For August, the market sentiment is expected to stabilize following an important meeting, leading to reduced capital inflow and insufficient upward momentum [1][17] - Despite being a traditional off-season, demand for steel has shown unexpected resilience, with inventory levels remaining low [1][17] Group 2: Production and Capacity - As of July 31, the operating rate of electric arc furnaces increased significantly to 45.45%, up 9.09 percentage points month-on-month, while blast furnace operating rates rose slightly to 78.59% [2] - Steel production data indicates that the total weekly output of construction steel reached 3.2782 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.49% [3] - The reduction in production and maintenance efforts in July was slightly less than in June, with a mixed impact across different steel varieties [4] Group 3: Consumption Trends - In July, steel consumption saw a slight decline, with construction steel demand decreasing by 3.6% month-on-month, while expectations for August indicate a narrowing of the decline [6][8] - The construction sector's steel usage fell by 2.7% in July, with a projected further decline of 1.6% in August [8] - Overall, the apparent consumption of construction steel increased to 3.2171 million tons in July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.19% [10] Group 4: Inventory Levels - By the end of July, total steel inventory shifted from a decrease to an increase, remaining significantly lower than the same period last year [12][13] - The total inventory of construction steel reached 6.9966 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2.01% [13] Group 5: Profitability - In July, the profitability of blast furnace steel mills decreased, while electric arc furnace mills saw a rapid recovery in profits, with the profit per ton for blast furnace steel at 201 yuan and for electric arc furnace steel at -112 yuan [15][16] Group 6: Future Outlook - The steel market in August is expected to experience a range-bound fluctuation, with demand showing signs of marginal recovery but still in a downward trend [17][19] - The supply side is expected to remain resilient, with electric arc furnace production increasing and blast furnace operations maintaining profitability [17][18]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-08-04 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-08-04 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 国债、地方债、金融债券利息增值税恢复的潜在影响 观点分享： 8 月 1 日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的 利息收入，恢复征收增值税。对在该日期之前已发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含 在 2025 年 8 月 8 日之后续发行的部分）的利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 从新老券区别来看，8 月 8 日后新发行的相关债券恢复利息增值税，首当其冲会使得新发行 国债存在一定的利率补偿，而老券更受青睐。当我们回顾周五政策发布后，在 25 附息国债 11 的利率分时图上，出现了"先上后下"的走势，这显示出市场先理解了"加税"的利空， 但又意识到了"老券"的珍贵。市场可能会顺势出现"多老券，空新券"的阶段性策略。 我们在年中策略报告中认为下半年国债期货行情大势为震荡偏空，该税收调整政策下， 活跃合约与对应老券的 CTD ...