1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the overall black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. However, there may be short - term disturbances on the demand side. With the weakening of coking coal cost support, there is an expectation of price reduction for spot goods. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures market is expected to run with wide - range oscillations affected by capital sentiment [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will fluctuate around the cost valuation [2][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. After the futures valuation is repaired to near the cost, the driving force for further upward movement is insufficient. It is difficult for the silicon iron futures price to maintain a high level [2][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of increase, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [2][12] 3.5 Steel - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still accumulating, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to run under pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 1.60% to 2458.25, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.76% to 2824.14, and the industrial products index increased by 1.48% to 2331.34. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.35% on that day, 0.87% in the past 5 days, - 4.40% in the past month, and - 3.38% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait for opportunities [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore prices rose in the overnight session on Monday [1] Important Information - On March 2, Anshan City launched a yellow (Level III) early warning for heavy pollution weather, and steel enterprises in Anshan are implementing production suspension and restriction measures, with some steel enterprises reducing production by 40% [1] - According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, 95% of coal - fired power generation capacity, 90% of steel production capacity, 3.6 billion tons of coking production capacity, and 4.7 billion tons of cement clinker production capacity in the country have completed ultra - low emission transformation [1] - On March 2, Baowu Group's Central and Southern Iron and Steel signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Pingmei Shenma Group, aiming to promote the strategic deployment of tilting high - quality resources towards high - quality enterprises and achieve efficient resource allocation and complementary advantages [1] Market Logic - From February 23 to March 1, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3407 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.6907 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,600 tons [1] - From February 23 to March 1, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 91,100 tons; the total arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China was 2.1469 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,500 tons [1] - Last week, the daily output of molten iron was 233,280 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,800 tons. Steel mills are gradually resuming work, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to increase in the later stage [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend. Short - term operations or waiting for opportunities are recommended [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - Hebei Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. was established in January 2010 through the merger of three listed companies, with an annual production capacity of 30 million tons of high-quality steel [2] - The company specializes in various steel products, including plates, bars, wires, and profiles, serving key sectors such as automotive, home appliances, railways, bridges, and construction [2] Group 2: Smart Manufacturing Initiatives - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance production processes and supply chain management, aiming for a transition from "point intelligence" to "full-domain intelligence" [3] - The development of the "one-key intelligent RH refining model" has reduced smelting cycles by over 5% [3] - Two factories and six exemplary scenarios have been recognized as national smart manufacturing demonstration factories, setting a benchmark in the steel industry [3] Group 3: Green and Low-Carbon Development - The company adheres to an "ecology first, green development" philosophy, achieving significant results in energy conservation and emissions reduction [4] - Several units have been recognized as pilot demonstration units for carbon management in Hebei Province, contributing to global climate change efforts [4] - The company has established two large-scale CCUS demonstration projects, marking a historic shift from "carbon reduction" to "value creation" [4] Group 4: Product Profitability and Export Strategy - The company focuses on enhancing profitability through efficient production, cost control, product upgrades, and brand building [6][7] - Plans to increase export business include leveraging the group's established brand recognition and improving product quality for collaboration with high-end international clients [7] Group 5: Raw Material Price Outlook - The price trends of iron ore are influenced by global economic conditions and market supply-demand dynamics, directly affecting production costs and profitability [7] - The company will optimize procurement strategies and inventory management to ensure stable production operations [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions, especially the Iran - US conflict, are the major factors affecting the global financial and commodity markets, increasing market uncertainty and volatility [8][13][15] - Different industries and commodities show various trends and investment opportunities under the influence of geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The report on China's potential purchase of supersonic missiles from Iran is untrue, and there is no information on Trump's possible visit to China in March [8] - Trump announced large - scale military actions against Iran, which may last 4 - 5 weeks, and Iran refuses to negotiate with the US [8] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may cause a 130% increase in European natural gas prices and an $18 per - barrel increase in oil prices [8] - Over $175 billion in tariffs ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court will enter the refund process [9] - In 2025, science - innovation board companies are expected to achieve a 10.3% year - on - year increase in operating income and a 28.2% increase in net profit [9] - Due to flight cancellations, the demand for direct flights on the China - Europe route has increased significantly [9] - Industry associations advocate for the stable supply and price of phosphate fertilizers [10] - Mobile phone brands are expected to raise prices in early March due to the increase in storage chip costs [10] - In February 2026, the average transaction price of second - hand housing in Shenzhen increased by 7.3% month - on - month [10] - Rio Tinto suspended negotiations on aluminum supply to Japanese customers [10] - Eurozone money market traders have almost ruled out the possibility of an ECB interest rate cut in 2026 [11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a short - term risk - defense strategy. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may outperform large - cap stocks. Geopolitical tensions have reduced risk appetite and may suppress the performance of the equity market [13] Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks may lower risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline. The market's digestion of geopolitical risks is acceptable, but continuous observation is recommended [15] Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. The current order - receiving situation of steel products is fair, but some steel mills face pressure. High post - holiday steel inventories, especially for coils, may suppress steel prices. Steel is expected to fluctuate, and the strategy of selling wide - straddle options can be adopted [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly in the short term. After the holiday, the supply side will recover quickly, while the demand side will recover slowly, and the supply - demand pattern will become looser [19][21] Ferroalloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. Silicon iron is in a tight - balance pattern before large - scale复产 in Qinghai, and it is recommended to partially exit long positions on sharp rises. For manganese silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [22] Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new capacity达产 progress. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and demand recovery [23] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Copper - In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate widely. Geopolitical tensions have pushed up避险 sentiment, and high inventories may suppress prices in the short term. In the long term, the tight supply pattern of global copper mines supports copper prices [25] Lithium Carbonate - Although there may be inventory accumulation in March, supply - side disturbances support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips during price corrections [25] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. Polysilicon has prominent weak - reality contradictions and will fluctuate weakly [28] Agricultural Products Cotton - Domestically, focus on the demand expectations after the holiday and the impact of external conflicts. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward. Pay attention to geopolitical impacts on the crude oil market and the uncertainty of US tariffs [31] Sugar - There is short - term supply pressure, but replenishment demand and external market rebounds support prices. The global sugar surplus has been adjusted downward, and domestic sugar prices are expected to rebound at a low level [32][33] Eggs - In March, the spot price of eggs may rise, but the increase is limited. The second - quarter futures contracts are supported by the expected rise in spot prices but face upward pressure. The far - month contracts are suppressed by the good breeding replenishment data [35] Apples - High - quality apple products may continue to strengthen, and the futures market may also show a strong trend. The prices of high - quality apples are firm, while those of low - quality apples may weaken [37] Corn - Be cautious about chasing high prices to prevent a sharp decline. A 5 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be considered. Corn has short - term supply pressure, but low inventory supports prices [38][39] Red Dates - Currently, red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. After the Spring Festival, the market will enter the off - season. Pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales area and the mentality of purchasers [40] Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the spot price is likely to be weak. Do not short the near - month futures contracts blindly. Pay attention to the entry of secondary fattening and frozen product storage [41] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors are the main trading theme in the short term. The conflict between the US and Iran has a significant impact on crude oil supply. Although the premium is high, the increase in oil prices is limited if there is no extreme conflict [43] Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focuses on the impact of geopolitically - driven oil prices. Geopolitical factors are currently beneficial to fuel oil. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil may decrease, and the inventory is slightly decreasing [45] Plastics - Due to the unstable situation in the Middle East, the prices of raw materials such as crude oil may be slightly stronger, providing some support for polyolefin prices. Be cautious of rebound risks and adopt a bullish view [46] Rubber - In March, downstream export orders are good, and the short - term operating rate is expected to increase. The cost side provides support, but be cautious about chasing high prices. Pay attention to narrowing the RU - NR and RU - BR spreads [47] Synthetic Rubber - Maintain a bullish view on buying on dips, but be cautious of the rapid decline in energy prices and high inventories. Consider the arbitrage strategy of shorting natural rubber and going long on synthetic rubber [48] Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has slightly improved. Geopolitical disturbances around Iran are the main influencing factors, and it is recommended to adopt a bullish - on - fluctuations view [49][50] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The start - up of chlor - alkali enterprises is recovering, and the price is relatively stable but lacks the momentum to continue rising. Pay attention to the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali and enterprise maintenance [51] Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow oil prices, with an estimated smaller increase than crude oil. In March, focus on the replenishment demand after winter storage. The supply - demand of asphalt is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [52] PVC - PVC may fluctuate strongly in the short term. The increase in crude oil prices will raise the cost of ethylene - based PVC. The long - term supply - demand pattern has not improved, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - fluctuation view [53][54] Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the trend is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment, and it will continue to be strong. In the long term, pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand [55] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Iran is an important LPG supplier to China. The future supply of LPG is abundant, and the price is difficult to maintain at a high level. The short - term geopolitical situation increases volatility, and it is advisable to wait and see [56] Pulp - The pulp market has a lot of long - short games due to the contradiction between weak reality and macro conflicts. Pay attention to port inventory and the implementation of product price increases. Consider buying on dips if the market improves [57] Logs - The forward spot price of logs is difficult to decline due to cost support, and the post - holiday inventory data is good. Pay attention to the adjustment of delivery rules and the impact of the Iran - US conflict on the market [57] Urea - The urea futures market is highly emotional. It is recommended to short on price increases. The spot price of urea has risen, but the futures price has fallen, and the overall transaction is weak [57][58]

本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务， 其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构 成对任何人的投资建议。大越期货不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视 相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需 谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公 司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关 性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种相 关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或 上市公司的相关推荐，不构成 对任何主 体进行或不进行某项行为的建议或意 见，不得将本报告的任何内容据以作为 大越期货所作的承诺或声明。在任何情 况下，任何主体依据本报告所进行的任 何作为或不作为，大越期货不承担任何 责任。 现货与基差 铁矿石早报(2026 年 03 月 03 日) | 铁矿石 | 主力合约 i2605 收盘价：754.5 | | --- | --- | | 基本面 | 发运端持续偏高，库存累库至历史高位，终端用钢需求无 | | | 显著好转；偏空 | | 基差 | 日照港 PB 粉现货折合盘面价 794 元/吨，基差 40；日照港 | | | 巴混现货折合盘面价 798，基差 43；偏多 | | 库存 | 港口库存 17891.3 万吨，环比增加，同比增加；偏空 | | 盘 ...

| 分析师： | 胡毓秀 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号: | F03105325 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0021337 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | | 研报辅助人员: | 黄若愚 | | 从业资格证号： | F03145541 | | | 主力合约 | hc2605 收盘价：3219 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基本面 | 供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政 策或发力；中性 | 重要提示： | | 热 | 基差 | 热轧卷板现货价 3240 元/吨，基差 21；偏多 | | | 轧 | 库存 | 全国 33 个主要城市库存 357.37 吨，环比增加，同比 | | | | | 增加；偏空 | | | 卷 | | | | | 板 | 盘面 | 价格在 20 日线下方，20 日线趋势向下；偏空 | | | | 主力 | 主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 | | | | 持仓 | | | | | 预期 | 库存增加，出口受阻，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场， | | | | | 震荡偏空思路对待 | | 重要提示： 本报告 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Commodity prices continue to rise, with the fundamental high-frequency index reaching 130.1 points, an increase of 6.0 points year-on-year [2] - The industrial production high-frequency index is at 129.0, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.1 points, indicating stable production growth [2] - The inventory high-frequency index stands at 165.1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4 points, suggesting a healthy inventory level [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The coal industry showed a performance increase of 14.5% in March, while the steel industry increased by 20.1%, indicating strong demand [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector experienced a significant rise of 35.0% in March, reflecting robust market conditions [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a remarkable increase of 44.7% in March, highlighting a strong recovery in this industry [1] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is facing increased attention due to geopolitical factors, with rising production costs driven by higher crude oil prices [8] - The price of live pigs has dropped below 11 CNY/kg, leading to deeper losses for producers, suggesting a potential reduction in supply [8] - The mushroom market remains strong, with prices for enoki mushrooms maintaining a positive trend, indicating growth opportunities in this segment [8] Group 4: Media and Internet Sector Analysis - The media sector underperformed, with a 5.1% decline in the media index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.1% [5] - The gaming sector is expected to perform well, with a focus on major titles and high demand in Q1, suggesting investment opportunities [6] - AI applications are anticipated to drive growth in the media sector, with several companies launching new products and upgrades [6]

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices generally rose during the week from February 24 to February 27, 2025, with the CSI 500 increasing by 4.32% [4] - The steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors had the highest gains, while media, retail, and food and beverage sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market was sluggish, with only 5 new funds established, totaling 1.451 billion units issued. This included 2 equity funds and 3 mixed funds [5] - A total of 36 new funds were issued across the market, categorized as 13 mixed funds, 12 equity funds, 6 bond funds, and 5 FOF funds [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Long-term thematic fund indices showed significant net value increases for cyclical theme funds, while pharmaceutical theme funds performed poorly. As of February 27, 2026, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: cyclical (6.93%), defense and military (4.30%), new energy (2.64%), industry rotation (2.43%), balanced industry (2.25%), TMT (1.93%), consumption (-0.78%), financial real estate (-0.84%), and pharmaceutical (-1.76%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - The stock ETF market continued to see net outflows, with significant reductions in both small-cap and large-cap broad-based ETFs. Conversely, there was an increase in inflows for Hong Kong stock ETFs [7] - The median return for stock ETFs was 1.52%, with a net outflow of 35.442 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -2.47% and a net inflow of 14.226 billion yuan [7] - Cross-border ETFs had a median return of 0.95% with a net inflow of 2.906 billion yuan, while commodity ETFs had a median return of 3.06% and a net inflow of 3.713 billion yuan [7] - All categories of broad-based ETFs experienced net outflows, with small-cap thematic ETFs seeing a notable outflow of 13.217 billion yuan. Financial real estate thematic ETFs had a significant net inflow of 2.053 billion yuan [7] ESG Financial Product Tracking - Two new green bonds were issued this week, with a total issuance scale of 750 million yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.27 trillion yuan and a total of 4,556 bonds issued as of February 27, 2026 [8] - There are currently 211 ESG funds in the domestic market, with a total scale of 157.639 billion yuan. The median net value changes for various ESG fund types this week were 2.27% for active equity, 2.87% for passive equity index, and 0.02% for bond ESG funds [8]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][3]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand is anticipated to stabilize, while supply is expected to continue contracting. The negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is diminishing, with infrastructure and manufacturing sectors projected to see steady growth [3]. - Last week, the total social inventory of major steel products reached 12.96 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week-on-week. Steel mill inventories also rose to 5.5 million tons, up by 200,000 tons [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average gross profit for rebar increased to 192 yuan per ton, up by 6 yuan per ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit rose to 54 yuan per ton, an increase of 18 yuan per ton [2]. - The estimated production profit for rebar rose by 17 yuan per ton to 143 yuan per ton, and for hot-rolled coil, it increased by 29 yuan per ton to 5 yuan per ton [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, but market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to take place, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3]. - The long-term trend towards increased industry concentration and high-quality development is expected to benefit steel companies with product structure and cost advantages, especially in the context of stricter environmental regulations and carbon neutrality goals [3].

Group 1: Automotive Industry Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for the automotive industry to break through by focusing on high-end products and expanding into overseas markets [1] - In 2025, domestic passenger car wholesale sales reached 23.797 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while exports totaled 5.731 million units, up 21% year-on-year, driven by policy support and consumer recovery [3] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the 100,000 to 150,000 yuan passenger car market increased from 45% in 2024 to 54% in 2025, indicating a rapid adoption of mid-to-low-end NEVs [3] - For 2026, passenger car sales are expected to grow moderately to approximately 29.82 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with NEV sales projected at about 17.05 million units, reflecting a 10% increase [3] - The article predicts that the new vehicle replacement policy will marginally benefit mid-to-high-end NEV models, with diverse supply in high-end NEVs, MPVs, and SUVs [3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about automakers that lead in global expansion, demonstrate strong high-end performance, and possess advanced intelligent capabilities [4]