角逐定价权，迈入低波市 A 股市场 2026 年投资策略｜2025.11.10 中信证券研究部 裘翔 首席 A 股策略师 S1010518080002 刘春彤 联席首席 A 股策略师 S1010520080003 高玉森 A 股策略分析师 S1010524080009 张铭楷 A 股策略分析师 S1010525070015 陈泽平 A 股策略分析师 S1010525080021 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后第 53 页起的免责条款和声明 A 股市场 2026 年投资策略｜2025.11.10 核心观点 A 股上市公司正陆续从本国敞口的本土化企业转型为全球敞口的跨国公司，中国资本 市场也正从新兴市场逐步转型为成熟市场，A 股不仅是中国的 A 股，也是全球的 A 股。 "十五五"期间，中企在全球价值链分配中的位置有望进一步抬升，把份额优势转化 为定价权，这是 A 股行情迈向低波动慢牛的基础。展望 2026 年，从大势研判来看，A 股全球营收敞口企业已不局限于少数公司，而是足以推动整个 A 股的行情，未来 A 股 的基本面要放在全球市场需求去看，而不是单看本土需求。在此框架下，中美格局决 定了行情的节奏和顺畅程 ...

智通财经记者 | 杜萌 距离2025年结束还有不足一个月的时间，这是往年公募基金"冲规模"的关键节点，今年却有了一些新变化。 12月2日，易方达科翔混合宣布暂停机构客户的申购、转换转入和定投业务。智通财经记者了解到，这是基金分红前的"例行动作"，防止机构投资者大额申 购摊薄原有持有人的利益。12月4日，该基金公告进行权益登记和除息，每10份基金份额分红3元。易方达科翔已经在11月做了一次分红，每10份分红1.6 元，分红金额为1.05亿元。 智通财经记者了解到，基金实施分红需要同时满足三个条件：一是基金当年收益弥补以前年度亏损后方可进行分配；二是基金进行收益分配后，单位净值不 能低于面值；三是基金投资当期出现净亏损不能进行收益分配。也就是说，分红的前提是基金得是成立以来盈利状态。 "分红有两种形式，一种是现金分红，一种是红利再投资。现金分红后，基金的单位净值会降低，规模也会变小。从本质上来看，分红都是基金业绩盈利的 直接兑现。现金分红可灵活补充现金流，红利再投资则能免申购费增加份额，叠加长期持有的税收优惠，进一步提升实际收益。"华夏基金表示。 Wind数据显示，截至12月4日，今年以来有3364只基金（不同份 ...

华创证券指出，中证A500行业配置聚焦四大方向：科创、顺周期、出海及地产链。科创领域受益 于康波周期下的科技博弈，估值上限有望继续打开，重点关注光学元件、PCB、集成电路等细分领域； 顺周期行业在再通胀交易中表现突出，尤其是供给紧张的周期（有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭）、制造（机械/ 医药/交运）、消费（养殖/纺服）及科技（消费电子/光学光电子）板块。出海逻辑强调产能全球化布 局，关注电新、机械、通信等高景气赛道；地产链则处于中期触底阶段，建筑建材、家居家电、物管等 具备困境反转的高赔率机会。行业新旧动能转换中，科技制造ROE稳步抬升。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 把握A股机遇，或可关注中证A500ETF（159338），中证A500创新指数编制方案，以国际通用 的"行业均衡"方式编制。从客户数量来看，根据2025年中报，国泰中证A500ETF总户数位列 ...

Group 1 - The US manufacturing index decreased from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months, indicating ongoing challenges for US factories due to import tariffs [1] - Only four industries experienced growth in November, including computers, electronics, and machinery, while several sectors such as wood, transportation, and apparel faced contraction [1] - Transportation equipment manufacturers are implementing structural adjustments in response to the tariff environment, including layoffs and shifting production overseas [1] Group 2 - Chemical product manufacturers report that tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to suppress demand for construction materials like adhesives [1] - Electrical equipment, appliance, and component manufacturers express concerns over a "chaotic trade environment" [1] - Other producers indicate that rising tariffs, government shutdowns, and increasing global uncertainty contribute to a persistently weak business environment [1] Group 3 - The US Supreme Court's recent questioning of the legality of Trump's tariffs has intensified speculation about potential overturning of these tariffs, which could lead to greater chaos [1] - Market expectations suggest that if the Supreme Court issues an unfavorable ruling, Trump may pivot to alternative trade strategies [1]

Macro and Strategy - The upstream resource sector is stabilizing, with coal prices slightly rising, while the oil and petrochemical sectors remain weak, with significant year-on-year declines in refined oil and natural gas prices [7][8] - The manufacturing sector shows overall recovery, with strong performance in machinery and equipment, while the automotive industry is gradually improving [7] - Consumer sectors are experiencing mixed recovery, with real estate showing marginal improvement and entertainment sectors rebounding significantly [8] Industry and Company - The Hong Kong stock market's December investment strategy suggests that the November pullback has created a favorable environment for 2026 [9] - The electronics sector is optimistic, with ASICs expected to open new markets and Quark's smart glasses enhancing AI edge trends [11][12] - The mechanical industry is focusing on humanoid robots and AI infrastructure, with significant developments in robot operating systems and standardization efforts [17][18] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI-related sectors, including hardware localization and AI applications, as they are expected to be crucial in 2026 [10] - The materials and industrial sectors are anticipated to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend, with upstream metals and certain industrial companies likely to gain [10] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is stable and worth holding, with potential for growth upon new project releases [10] Market Performance - The global smartphone market is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2025, with Apple expected to become the leading smartphone brand for the first time since 2011 [15][16] - The semiconductor industry is seeing broad growth, with companies like ADI reporting significant revenue increases and positive outlooks for 2026 [16] Key Events and Developments - The launch of Quark's smart glasses and Google's potential sale of TPU chips are notable developments in the electronics sector [12][13] - The introduction of new DDR5 and LPDDR5X products by Changxin Storage indicates growth opportunities in the storage market [14] Focused Investment Areas - Emphasis on humanoid robots and AI infrastructure, with specific attention to companies involved in energy supply and cooling solutions for AI data centers [19][21] - The low-altitude economy and smart welding robots are emerging sectors with significant growth potential [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to see an early "spring rally" in 2026, driven by positive factors from policy, fundamentals, and liquidity, with a focus on balanced allocation across growth and cyclical sectors [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The "spring rally" in early 2025 was characterized by a rebound after a quick drop in January, with major indices showing upward trends for two months [2] - Analysts believe that the "spring rally" in 2026 may be advanced due to a "learning effect" in the market and the later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival, leading to potential early positioning by investors [2][3] - Historical analysis indicates that the performance of the "spring rally" is positively correlated with the overall market performance for the year, suggesting that sectors that perform well in December may underperform in the subsequent "spring rally" [3] Group 2: Sector Allocation - Institutions recommend a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors, with a focus on military, AI applications, chemicals, and resource products [1][4] - Specific recommendations include focusing on high-value growth areas such as aerospace equipment and the AI industry chain, while also considering cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals [4] - The technology sector is expected to maintain a long-term advantage, with particular attention on military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware for investment opportunities [4][5]

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 牛市下半场，实物再通胀 ——2026 年度投资策略 ❖ 百年变局看中国资产：从"看短做短"到"看长做长" 1）看短做短的背后是长期因子突变下估值体系的紊乱失效，"十四五"期间战 略防御的政策取向，是百年变局下的主动应对，预计"十五五"转向战略相持 进攻、看长做长。2）全球视角看人民币资产优势：①体制：财政足债务稳健、 旧经济出清早，率先双宽稳定扩张；②产业/人才：康波周期下制造产业链齐备 &科创人才红利；③估值：既看 GDP 也看 GNI，人民币国际化，全球 ERP 和 金本位视角看中国资产占优。3）续写增长奇迹的锚点：经济建设为中心，中 长期 GDP 提升路径：居民消费率+中产扩容。结束低价不仅是复苏更是焕发新 生。 ❖ 重塑估值体系：减重增肌的宏观范式、腾笼换鸟的 ROE、居民存款搬家 1）量增质弱的旧范式：地产银行主导的信贷脉冲→减重增肌的新范式：审慎 开支高效运转的高 ROE 权益回报。2）腾笼换鸟的 ROE：新旧动能转换。旧 经济地产链对 A 股 ROE 拖累基本结束，A 股 ROE 告别高杠杆驱动，转向科 技制造高利率、高周转、分红回购。结构转型实现 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the outlook for domestic inflation in 2026, focusing on the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends, highlighting the need for effective fiscal policies to stimulate demand and support price recovery [2][3][4]. Group 1: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has recently returned to the 1% range, indicating a positive signal, but this is attributed to specific factors rather than a broad recovery in domestic demand [2]. - The sustainability of "old momentum" is questioned, with expectations for increased fiscal support in 2026, particularly towards the service sector, but concerns about diminishing multiplier effects are raised [2][3]. - The direction of the price base is contingent on effective fiscal spending to create a positive demand cycle, emphasizing the need for structural changes in fiscal policy rather than mere continuation of existing measures [3]. Group 2: 2026 Inflation Projections - It is anticipated that the core CPI will shift focus from physical consumption driven by "trade-in" policies in 2025 to the recovery elasticity of "service CPI" in 2026, dependent on effective domestic demand policies [4]. - The PPI is expected to experience a recovery influenced by the interplay between real estate sector challenges and supply-side reforms, with potential for gradual improvements as policies are implemented [4].

Group 1 - QFII institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and others have continued to increase their holdings in A-shares during Q3, with at least 121 stocks seeing increased positions, particularly in sectors like electrical equipment, machinery, hardware, and chemicals [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes strengthening the construction of a network power and promoting future industries, including the sixth generation of mobile communications, indicating a positive outlook for the technology sector [1] - The communication equipment industry's dynamic PE is at the historical 97.3 percentile, indicating high valuations that challenge performance delivery [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies green transformation as a core goal, aiming to consolidate and expand the advantages of the wind and solar industries [3] - Since June 2025, national policies have been introduced to promote healthy and sustainable development in the photovoltaic industry, transitioning from chaotic low-price competition [3] - China's photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to grow significantly, with a projected 45% increase in new installations in 2024 compared to the previous year, marking a nearly 20-fold increase since 2015 [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal a split among voters regarding the recent interest rate cut, with concerns that further cuts may exacerbate inflation risks [5] - The U.S. Treasury yields have risen due to stagflation risks, influenced by expectations of a new Fed chair aligned with presidential directives [5] - China's GW satellite constellation launch frequency has significantly increased, indicating a rapid development phase in the commercial space industry [5] Group 4 - The short-term market trend appears weak, with limited new capital entering the market and a lack of significant profit-making opportunities [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index is experiencing a range-bound movement between 3800 and 4000 points, with concerns about individual stock performance despite the index stability [11] - The ChiNext Index has shown a decrease in trading volume over two weeks, suggesting a cautious withdrawal of institutional funds [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for nine consecutive months, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 in November, indicating ongoing economic challenges due to tariff uncertainties and high production costs [1][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - The U.S. manufacturing PMI has decreased to 48.2, marking the largest contraction in factory activity in four months and the most significant drop in backlog orders in seven months [1][4]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to the U.S. economy is approximately 10.1%, with only four industries, including computers and electronics, showing growth, while sectors like apparel and textiles are experiencing severe contractions [5]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to a decline in customer demand, with manufacturers delaying orders until costs are clearer [4][5]. - Since the Trump administration raised tariffs in April, many U.S. manufacturers have faced increased costs for raw materials sourced from abroad, contributing to the overall economic slowdown [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment - Manufacturers across various sectors, including wood products and chemicals, report low business confidence, with many only accepting short-term orders and lacking plans for inventory expansion [6]. - The electrical equipment and appliance manufacturers have expressed concerns over "trade chaos," while transportation equipment manufacturers are planning long-term changes due to the evolving tariff environment [6].