2025.10. 24 固本升级，就是要优化提升传统产业。传统产业是当前我国产业体系的"基本盘"，增加值在制造业 中占比80%左右。 《建议》提出推动重点产业提质升级，巩固提升化工、机械、造船等行业在全球产业分工中的地位和 竞争力，发展先进制造业集群等举措。 郑栅洁表示，这将加快推动传统产业质的有效提升和量的合 理增长，初步估计未来5年会新增10万亿元左右的市场空间，释放出巨大的发展动能和民生红利。 创新育新，就是要培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业。2024年，我国"三新"经济增加值占GDP比重已经 超过18%。 郑栅洁表示，《建议》提出打造新兴支柱产业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性 新兴产业集群发展，这将催生出数个万亿级甚至更大规模的市场。《建议》还提出前瞻布局未来产 业，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等成为新的 经济增长点。这些产业蓄势发力，未来10年新增规模相当于再造一个中国高技术产业，为我国经济 大盘、高质量发展注入源源不断的新动能。 本文字数：1723，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 二十届四中全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国 ...

根据全会公报，建设现代化产业体系排在"十五五"各项经济社会发展任务的首位。 国家发改委主任郑栅洁在发布会上表示，中国经济靠实体经济起家，也要靠实体经济走向未来。《建议》明确 把"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基"摆在战略任务的第一条，部署了4方面重点任务，可以从"固本 升级、创新育新、扩容提质、强基增效"这4个方面来把握。 固本升级，就是要优化提升传统产业。传统产业是当前我国产业体系的"基本盘"，增加值在制造业中占比80%左 右。 《建议》提出推动重点产业提质升级，巩固提升化工、机械、造船等行业在全球产业分工中的地位和竞争力，发 展先进制造业集群等举措。郑栅洁表示，这将加快推动传统产业质的有效提升和量的合理增长，初步估计未来5年 会新增10万亿元左右的市场空间，释放出巨大的发展动能和民生红利。 "固本升级、创新育新、扩容提质、强基增效" 扩容提质，就是要促进服务业优质高效发展。我国服务业仍有巨大的扩容和提质空间。《建议》提出实施服务业 扩能提质行动，提高现代服务业与先进制造业、现代农业融合发展水平等举措。"这将加快促进经济生态重塑优 化、更好满足人民美好生活需要，打开经济增长新空间，这又是一个巨大的新 ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continued cooling trend in U.S. exports, while machine tools and engineering machinery exports show marginally positive performance [1] - Exports of electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America are under pressure due to tariff impacts, with significant declines noted in 2025 [2][7] - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Latin America, are driving growth in forklift and industrial sewing machine exports [5][8] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers primarily target high-end markets in Europe and the U.S. [2] - From January to September 2025, the export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 1%, -4%, and 43% respectively, with significant declines in exports to North America [2] - Lawn mower exports to Europe accounted for 71% of total exports in the first nine months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are mainly exported to Asia, with a 67% share in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - Forklifts and machine tools also show strong export performance, particularly in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, with respective shares of 34%, 29%, and 16% for forklifts [4] - Engineering machinery exports grew by 16% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, with Africa showing the fastest growth at 59% [4][5] Engineering Machinery - Exports of major engineering machinery categories, including excavators and tractors, maintained double-digit growth rates in 2025 [6][8] - Excavators and tractors saw year-on-year growth rates of 27% and 32% respectively in the first nine months of 2025 [8] - The report suggests a positive outlook for global mining capital expenditure, recommending attention to specific companies in this sector [8]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a shift towards focusing on economic construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a heightened urgency for economic growth compared to the previous plan [10][13][19] - Key areas of focus include the development of advanced manufacturing, technological self-reliance, and expanding domestic demand, which are seen as strategic priorities for the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][13][20] - The report anticipates that policies aimed at achieving economic growth targets will likely lead to increased fiscal and monetary support in the fourth quarter [10][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a slow bull trend, with improving profit expectations driven by policies focused on economic construction and advanced manufacturing [3][15][18] - Short-term market dynamics may also benefit from increased liquidity and a positive outlook on economic growth, which could enhance market risk appetite [3][18][19] - The report identifies specific sectors that may benefit from these trends, including TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, and military industries, which are aligned with the modernization of the industrial system [4][19][20] Group 3 - Industries related to new productive forces, such as TMT, machinery, and military sectors, are expected to benefit from policies promoting technological innovation and infrastructure development [4][19][20] - The advanced manufacturing sector, including non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, is highlighted as a key area for growth, driven by national security and environmental sustainability initiatives [20][21][22] - Consumer sectors, particularly those related to social services and retail, are also positioned to gain from policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving living standards [22][23]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and its **fifteenth five-year plan (十五规划)**, focusing on various sectors including technology, agriculture, and capital markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Focus on Domestic Demand**: The fifteenth five-year plan emphasizes expanding domestic demand through improving living standards and promoting consumption, alongside effective investment and resource allocation [1][6][11]. 2. **Technological Innovation**: China aims to enhance its technological innovation capabilities, with R&D expenditure reaching 26.2% of global spending, second only to the US. The plan prioritizes the application of technological achievements to build a modern industrial system [1][8][20]. 3. **High-Level Opening Up**: The plan stresses the importance of a high-level, autonomous opening up to foster reform and development, particularly in the context of increasing geopolitical competition [1][9][12]. 4. **Impact on Capital Markets**: Although the plan does not explicitly mention financial markets, historical trends indicate that five-year plans significantly influence capital market development. Key investment areas include high-end manufacturing, digital technology, and new consumption [1][12][14]. 5. **Challenges and Achievements of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan**: The previous plan saw notable achievements in economic and technological strength but faced challenges such as the pandemic and real estate market adjustments, which will be addressed in the new plan [2][3]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Cultural and Agricultural Development**: The plan highlights the importance of cultural innovation and modernization in agriculture, focusing on seed industry, smart agriculture, and intelligent machinery as core development areas [4][41]. 2. **Consumer Spending**: The plan aims to stimulate consumer spending by improving income levels and addressing issues like social security and education equity [10][15]. 3. **Balance of Supply and Demand**: The strategy includes aligning new demand with new supply to foster a healthy interaction between consumption and investment [16]. 4. **Opportunities in Emerging Sectors**: The call suggests focusing on emerging sectors such as the "first launch economy," new cultural tourism projects, and the aging population economy, which present significant growth opportunities despite overall economic slowdowns [18]. 5. **Green Transition**: The plan emphasizes a comprehensive green transition, impacting industries like wind and solar energy, with ambitious targets for renewable energy capacity by 2035 [34][35]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the strategic directions outlined in the fifteenth five-year plan and its implications for various sectors in the Chinese economy.

Core Viewpoint - The third quarter report disclosures are peaking, with over 500 A-share companies releasing their reports, and more than 30 companies announcing cash dividend plans totaling over 4.3 billion yuan [2][3]. Summary by Category Dividend Announcements - Over 30 A-share companies have disclosed dividend plans, with 8 companies planning to distribute over 100 million yuan each. Notable companies include Wen's Foodstuffs (300498.SZ) with nearly 2 billion yuan, and Sanhe Tree (603737.SH) and Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) each expecting to distribute over 300 million yuan [2][3][4]. - Among the companies announcing dividends, more than half (21 companies) plan to distribute at least 0.1 yuan per share. Three companies are proposing a distribution of "10 for 5 yuan" [3][4]. Performance and Profitability - Companies announcing significant dividends generally show strong performance, with many reporting revenue and profit growth. Some companies have seen net profits increase by over 200% in the first three quarters [2][5]. - Wen's Foodstuffs is an exception, with a slight decline in revenue and a net profit drop of 18.29%. In contrast, Shengnong Development reported a net profit increase of 202.82% [5]. Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The ongoing dividend announcements have led to increased interest in dividend-paying assets, with many brokerages suggesting that dividend stocks may become a safe haven for investors amid current market conditions [8][9]. - Analysts believe that low-volatility dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like banking and utilities, may rebound, while cyclical sectors such as coal and steel are also expected to perform well [9][10]. - Investors are advised to consider dividend yields, sustainability, and the overall market environment when selecting stocks, particularly in mature industries like consumer goods and utilities [11].

Group 1 - Over 500 A-share companies have released their Q3 reports, with more than 30 companies announcing dividend plans totaling over 4.3 billion yuan [1][2] - Eight companies are set to distribute dividends exceeding 100 million yuan, with Wens Foodstuffs Group planning to distribute nearly 2 billion yuan [1][2] - More than half of the companies announcing dividends have proposed a per-share dividend of 0.1 yuan or more, indicating a strong performance in Q3 [1][2] Group 2 - The sectors with significant dividend announcements include machinery, food and beverage, and automotive [2] - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Shengnong Development, and Sankeshu are among those with the highest total dividend payouts [2][3] - Some companies are combining cash dividends with stock bonuses, such as Siling Co., which plans to distribute 319 million yuan and issue additional shares [3][4] Group 3 - Many companies justifying their dividend distributions cite the need for future operational funding and confirm that cash dividends will not impact their liquidity [4] - Among the companies with the largest dividend payouts, most have reported substantial profit growth, with some seeing increases over 200% [4][5] - Wens Foodstuffs is an exception, reporting a slight decline in revenue and profit for the first three quarters [4][5] Group 4 - The dividend announcements coincide with a broader trend of companies implementing dividend distributions, enhancing the appeal of dividend-paying assets [8] - Analysts suggest that the dividend sector may become a safe haven for investors amid market uncertainties, with low-volatility stocks and "anti-involution" related dividend stocks expected to rebound [9][10] - Investment strategies should focus on companies with sustainable dividends and strong fundamentals, particularly in mature sectors like consumer goods and utilities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The third quarter report season is peaking, with over 500 A-share companies disclosing their reports, and more than 30 companies announcing dividend plans, totaling over 4.3 billion yuan in payouts [1][2]. Dividend Announcements - Over 30 A-share companies have disclosed dividend plans, with 8 companies planning to distribute over 100 million yuan each. Notable companies include Wens Foodstuffs (300498.SZ) with nearly 2 billion yuan, and Sankeshu (603737.SH) and Shennong Development (002299.SZ) each expected to distribute over 300 million yuan [1][2]. - More than half of the companies announcing dividends have a per-share payout of 0.1 yuan or more, with some companies proposing significant distributions such as "10 for 5" [2][3]. Performance and Profitability - Companies announcing large dividends generally show strong performance, with many reporting revenue and profit increases. Some companies have seen net profit growth exceeding 200% in the first three quarters [1][4]. - Among the top dividend-paying companies, only Wens Foodstuffs reported a decline in performance, with a slight decrease in revenue and a net profit drop of 18.29% [4][5]. Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The dividend sector is becoming a potential safe haven for investors amid current market conditions, with analysts suggesting that funds may flow into low-volatility dividend stocks [9][10]. - Analysts recommend that investors consider dividend yields, sustainability, and company fundamentals when selecting stocks, particularly in mature sectors like consumer goods and utilities [10].

Core Insights - The third quarter report season is peaking, with over 500 A-share companies disclosing their reports, and more than 30 companies announcing dividend plans totaling over 4.3 billion yuan [1][2] - Companies with significant dividends include Wens Foodstuffs (300498.SZ) proposing nearly 2 billion yuan, and Sankeshu (603737.SH) and Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) expecting over 300 million yuan [1][2] - Many companies announcing large dividends have shown strong performance, with some reporting net profit increases exceeding 200% [1][4] Dividend Announcements - Over 30 A-share companies have disclosed dividend plans, primarily in the machinery, food and beverage, and automotive sectors [2] - More than half of these companies (21) plan to distribute dividends of 0.1 yuan or more per share [2] - Notable dividend proposals include Wens Foodstuffs with a plan of "10 for 3 yuan," totaling approximately 1.994 billion yuan, and Shengnong Development with a plan of 371 million yuan [2][3] Performance and Justification - Companies like Siling Co. (301550.SZ) have justified their dividend plans by stating that cash distributions will not impact their operational liquidity [4] - Among the top dividend-paying companies, only Wens Foodstuffs reported a decline in performance, while others like Shengnong Development and Sankeshu showed significant profit growth [4][5] Market Trends - The dividend sector is gaining attention as a potential safe haven for investors amid current market conditions [9] - Analysts suggest that funds may flow into dividend stocks, particularly low-volatility options and those related to "anti-involution" themes, such as coal and steel [9] - The long-term low-interest rate environment continues to support the investment appeal of dividend stocks [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider dividend yields, sustainability, and company fundamentals when selecting stocks [10] - In mature sectors like consumer goods and utilities, high dividends are a key attraction, while in growth sectors, the sustainability of increased dividends should be evaluated [10]

Core Insights - The mechanical industry is positioned as a cornerstone of industrial economy, aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of approximately 3.5% and a revenue target exceeding 10 trillion yuan [1] - The industry seeks to stimulate growth through three main strategies: tapping into existing domestic demand, fostering new demand, and enhancing international competitiveness [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Strategies - The mechanical industry derives 70% of its demand from infrastructure construction and equipment investment in various sectors, with the renewal of old equipment being a key driver for market growth [2] - The push for equipment updates is moving towards greener, smarter, and service-oriented solutions, creating a market space worth trillions [2] - The industry is experiencing a concentrated renewal period for equipment sold during the last sales peak (2016-2021), with strong demand for updates due to factors like the transition to National IV standards [3] Group 2: International Competitiveness - The recent China International Fire Equipment Technology Exchange Exhibition showcased a significant increase in foreign participation, indicating a growing interest in Chinese products and technologies [4] - In the first half of the year, the mechanical industry achieved a trade export value of $465.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, with a trade surplus of $334.28 billion, reflecting resilience in international trade [5] Group 3: New Market Opportunities - The implementation of intelligent equipment innovation development projects is aimed at addressing national strategic needs and enhancing market demand [7] - Companies like UBTECH are making strides in humanoid robotics, securing significant contracts and preparing for large-scale production and application [7] - The integration of AI technologies in products is enhancing operational efficiency and reducing carbon emissions, with companies like Southern Road Machinery leading in AI-driven automation [8]